financing infrastructure deficit in bangladesh
TRANSCRIPT
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Financing Infrastructure Deficit in Bangladesh
Nazneen Ahmed Senior Research Fellow
Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) 28 October 2016
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GDP Growth and Sectoral Growth (%)
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6th Five-Year Plan GDP Growth Performance in global context (% per annum 2011-2015, World Bank Global Economic Prospect)
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Actual vs Targeted GDP growth during the 6th Five Year Plan period
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Share of Major economic sectors at constant prices
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Projection for 2021
(Share in GDP) • Agriculture :15% • Industry: 40% • Services: 45%
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Savings – Investment as % of GDP
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A core challenge for Development and Pro-poor growth is Infrastructure
Deficit
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Doing business in Bangladesh 2016(global ranking out of 189 countries)
Indicators 2015 2016
Ease of doing business
172 174
Getting electricity
189 189
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Global competitiveness Indicators for Bangladesh (out of 144 countries, by World Economic Forum)
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Quality of Infrastructure (Global Competitiveness Report)
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Enabling Trade Index 2014: Bangladesh
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No doubt about need for infrastructure development. But how to finance?
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Infrastructure Allocation as % of Annual Development Programme
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Investment requirement for major transport projects between 2007-08 to 2020-21
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Major macroeconomic, regulatory and institutional constraints for infrastructure financing
• Macro Constraints---- • Domestic Savings and investment gaps (scarcity while compared with
domestic savings; surplus while compared with national savings) • Fiscal discipline and budgetary constraints (leading to external
borrowing; Sovereign bonds) • Capacity to absorb capital inflows (Monetary management problems)
• Institutional and regulatory constraints---- • Commercial banks (capital base of a single bank is not enough to finance
infrastructure projects; also long term financing is a problem) • Non-Bank Financial institutions (limited access to low cost and long term
financing) • Insurance Companies (no exposure to energy and infrastructure sector) • Capital market (equity and debt financing )
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Way forward • Private investment is unlikely to pick up readily in the
face of shortfalls in the supply of electricity and gas. Hence, the government should continue its expansionary fiscal stance (more public investment, transfer payments, social spending).
• This will crowed in more private investment. • And also supportive political environment will need
to be there.
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Way forward • Floating of sovereign bonds? • Diaspora bond • Bangladesh Infrastructure development bond? (channel funds
from institutional pension fund or insurance companies) • Syndicated international commercial loans? (may not be
available in large volume and for longer period.) • Bilateral Loans from other countries? Look for new partners
like Russia? • BRICS bank (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa)–
Supporting public and private projects.
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Bangladesh and MDG 8.
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Thank you