Financing Colorado’s Future – A Fresh Look at the Funding of

State Government

Our 2013 Study Reveals a Better Picture than 2011 Analysis

FY 13-14 FY 14-15 FY 15-16 FY 16-17 FY 17-18 FY 18-19 FY 19-20 FY 20-21 FY 21-22 FY 22-23 FY 23-24 FY 24-25 FY 25-26 FY 26-27 FY 27-28 FY 28-29 FY 29-30 $-

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

TABOR refunds SB 228 HUTF and CC ReserveK-12, HCPF and Corrections Additional GF for Medicaid SUBTOTAL all other deptsRevenue less rebates and exps and less EITC

In M

illio

ns

Although Better, Colorado’s Finances Remain Structurally Broken

FY 13-14FY 14-15

FY 15-16FY 16-17

FY 17-18FY 18-19

FY 19-20FY 20-21

FY 21-22FY 22-23

FY 23-24FY 24-25

FY 25-26FY 26-27

FY 27-28FY 28-29

FY 29-30

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

113.33%

206.28%

95.27%

Cumulative Growth Rates from FY 13-14 through FY 29-30 for GF and SEF Revenues, CDE, and HCPF

Education HCPF Revenue

Demographics Contributing to the Gap: Aging Remains an Issue for Taxable

Consumption

Under25

years

25-34years

35-44years

45-54years

55-64years

65-74years

75 yearsand older

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

Mean Annual Taxable Spending by Age of Household Head: US in 2012

Source: Calculated from BLS, 2012 Consumer Expenditure Survey

But it is not only the Aging Demographic that is Affecting Revenue

Millennials and

Technology

Thought Experiment: How Many Goods Has Your Cell Phone Replaced?

Now =

Land Line PhoneAnswering MachineAlarm ClockHand Held CalculatorWristwatchCalendarCameraDVD PlayerGPSBooksNewspapersMaps/Atlases, etc.Music PlayersNotepads TVsAnd more…

And, Policy Contributing to the Gap: TABOR Refunds Return in 2017

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

TABOR Refund Forecast

Fiscal Year

In M

illio

ns

Refunds are taken from the General Fund and thus contribute to the gap

Refunds Would Not Occur if Hospital Provider Fee were TABOR Exempt

2013 with

HPF

2013 with

out HPF

2014 with

HPF

2014 with

out HPF

2015 with

HPF

2015 with

out HPF

2016 with

HPF

2016 with

out HPF

2017 with

HPF

2017 with

out HPF

2018 with

HPF

2018 with

out HPF

2019 with

HPF

2019 with

out HPF

2020 with

HPF

2020 with

out HPF

2021 with

HPF

2021 with

out HPF

2022 with

HPF

2022 with

out HPF

2023 with

HPF

2023 with

out HPF

2024 with

HPF

2024 with

out HPF

2025 with

HPF

2025 with

out HPF

2026 with

HPF

2026 with

out HPF

2027 with

HPF

2027 with

out HPF

2028 with

HPF

2028 with

out HPF

2029 with

HPF

2029 with

out HPF

2030 with

HPF

2030 with

out HPF

$-

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

TABOR Refunds with and without Hospital Provider Fee

GF CF GF CF TABOR LIMIT

Fiscal Year

Reve

nue

Fore

cast

, in

Mill

ions

By 2030, HPF-Driven TABOR Refunds Account for 31.02 Percent of Gap

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 20300%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Share of Gap for which HPF-Driven TABOR Refunds are Responsible

Fiscal Year