March 20 - 26, 2013

2 | NEWS | financialmirror.com

European stocks hit for second day by Cyprus concernsl Analysts see some opportunities in banks broad retreat

European shares fell for a second day on Tuesday, withinvestors spooked by the possibility that Cyprus could reject abailout, likely leading to bank collapses and fallout for the eurozone.

Cyprus’ parliament rejected the 10 bln euro rescue packagein a vote on Tuesday, which, in a break with previous EU prac-tice, includes a levy on bank accounts. Without the money, theisland could face a sovereign default and even a euro zone exit,analysts say.

With the Cyprus stock exchange closed, Greece was theworst hit of the regional bourses, shedding 3.9%.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 closed down 0.4% at1,194.91 points after a volatile session.

The EuroSTOXX 50 index of euro zone blue chips - whichtends to be more sensitive to swings in sentiment on theregion - fell 1.1%.

The VSTOXX implied volatility index - a crude barometer ofinvestor risk aversion - jumped, taking its gains so far thisweek to 37% and marking its biggest two-day rise in 1-1/2

years, as investors sought protection against or bet on furthermarket falls.

“VSTOXX had a significant jump so you can see that peopleare aware of the risk, especially in the near term,” said IoanSmith, strategist at Knight Capital.

“Personally I think it is pretty serious ... It’s very myopic tolook at the size of Cyprus, this is more of a procedural or oper-ational impact across the board.”

Banks were the worst performing sector, with the STOXXindex of euro zone banks dropping 4% to hit three-monthintra-day lows on concerns that the Cyprus situation couldprompt investors to take money out of Italy and Spain, too.

Some analysts argued that the broad selloff could createpotential buying opportunities in banks less exposed toSouthern Europe, or even relative winners within that region.

“BBVA, and Santander which has a very similar profile, is apotential beneficiary of deposit flight from smaller Spanishinstitutions, given its relative balance sheet strength and thedifficulty that retail depositors may find moving money over-

seas,” Simon Maughan, head of research at Olivetree, said in anote.

“However, BBVA’s share price is correlated with its CDSlevel and any rise in the cost of credit is likely to coincide withshare price weakness before an attractive entry level isreached.”

Longer-term investors, though, remained largely on thesidelines, noting the still supportive backdrop for Europeanequities from central bank stimulus, high dividend yields andstill relatively attractive valuations, which had helpedFTSEurofirst 300 scale 4-1/2 year highs last week.

“The volatility in Europe will be higher, but the trend is notbroken because Europe’s valuation is much cheaper than therest of the world,” Joerg de Vries-Hippen, CIO EuropeanEquities at Allianz Global Investors, which has 304 bln eurosof assets under management.

“I would say Europe will come next year out of the weak-ness in economic growth and normally the markets react sixmonths or even nine months in advance of that.”

Emerging markets to rally beyond rich-world stocksl Asian, Brazil stocks set to bounce back; Nikkei could finish year with 35% gains; U.S.,

German and British shares to gain slowly

The breakneck ascent of developed world stocks this yearis probably over, but major emerging markets should gainstrongly from here after a poor start, according to polls.

Since the start of the year, many of the world’s top stockmarkets have hit their highest levels since the onset of theglobal financial crisis in 2008.

The U.S. S&P 500 index, for example, came close to its all-time high last week.

In many cases, the barnstorming rally bore no relation toactual economies and instead reflected the swathes of centralbank cash flowing through the financial system.

Still, the more than 450 analysts polled worldwide byReuters suggested U.S. federal spending cuts, plus the threatthat the euro zone’ debt crisis might flare up again, will turnthe rally into a modest upward trend for most big Westernindexes.

That will allow emerging markets that have struggled sofar this year to come to the fore.

“We expect the positive equity market environment tocontinue for now,” said Gerhard Schwarz, head of equitystrategy at Baader Bank, based near Munich.

“Even though political risks remain both in the U.S. andthe euro zone, central bank action taken in 2012 has sub-stantially reined in fears over systemic risk. This will aid a fur-ther recovery in business confidence.”

The CBOE Volatility Index, known also as Wall Street’s

fear gauge, hit its lowest level since April 2007 on Friday,indicating equity investors are discounting concerns about amarket pullback even as the S&P 500 nears its all-time high.The VIX is down 26% so far in 2013.

Still, events in Cyprus this week brought a timelyreminder of the threats to advancing stock markets.

Despite being one of the smallest economies in the EU,the country is wavering on the edge of financial oblivion thatcould reverberate through the euro zone, knocking Europeanshares lower.

If notoriously bullish equity strategists needed anotherwarning that things often turn out for the worse unexpected-ly, it’s the fact Indian, Chinese, Korean and Brazilian sharesare all in the red so far this year.

Even so, they expect these markets will start deliveringstrong gains shortly.

Chief among them will be Sao Paulo’s Bovespa, which hasendured a dismal 2013 so far, falling more than 6%.

It is expected to rise more than 18% from here to the endof 2013, with Shanghai and Tokyo stocks not far behind.

TOKYO TAKING OFFJapan’s Nikkei has by far been the best performer among

the poll’s 20 indexes, recording a 17.6% gain up to March 18this year, and fuelled by government attempts to reflate theeconomy.

If accurate, the poll suggests the Nikkei would finish theyear a stellar 35% higher compared with its 2012 close.

“If you waited until the economy recovers, you will be‘driving while looking at the rear-view mirror’,” said NorihiroFujito, senior investment strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ MorganStanley Securities.

Conversely, the gains predicted for Brazilian shares can beput down to reduced government intervention, after itsinvolvement in private telecoms and utilities sectors spookedinvestors, leading to the Bovespa’s decline so far this year.

Shanghai’s Composite Index should also gain heartilyfrom here, around 16%, after likewise suffering a decline sofar this year, helped by signs the world’s No.2 economy isstarting to pick up.

Mexican, Russian, Indian and Hong Kong shares areexpected to post double-digit gains from now until the year’send.

Analysts expect U.S., German and British stocks to farethe worst from here, adding just a handful of percentagepoints each until the end of the year.

Still, that would mean the S&P 500 would hit a newrecord high, even if it gains just three percent until the endof the year as the poll predicts.

Similarly, Germany’s DAX looks like it will surpass its all-time high later this year, even with tepid single-digit gainsfrom now.

BAE freezes CEO’s salary after earnings dropBAE Systems Plc has frozen the salaries of

Chief Executive Ian King and two other top exec-utives, after group earnings were hit by U.S. budg-et cuts and delays to a deal with Saudi Arabia.

In its annual report published on Tuesday,Europe’s largest defence contractor said itwould freeze King’s 2013 base pay at the previ-ous year’s level of 963,050 pounds ($1.5 mln)after the company failed to hit its earnings pershare (EPS) target.

Finance Director Peter Lynas and LindaHudson, chief executive of BAE’s U.S. arm,would also have their salaries frozen at theirrespective 2012 levels of 546,000 pounds and$1.05 mln, it said.

“Against the performance background ...There will be no increase in base compensationand no increase in earnings opportunity owingthrough the rest of their pay packages,” said CarlSymon, chairman of BAE’s remuneration com-mittee.

The salary freeze compares with 2012, whenKing’s salary rose 3% from the previous year,and Lynas and Hudson’s salary increased 5% and3.5%, respectively.

BAE has endured a difficult year, duringwhich it failed to resolve discussions with SaudiArabia over the pricing of a contract for Typhoonaircraft and contracts were delayed or cancelledas U.S. politicians fought over cuts to the coun-

try’s budget.Its proposed $45 bln merger with European

aerospace group EADS, seen by some analysts asreflective of the pressure the company is underto find growth, also collapsed in October follow-ing German political opposition.

In February it said underlying EPS, the met-ric by which it measures management perform-ance, fell 2% to 38.9 pence from the previousyear, having warned in December that the delayof the Saudi deal would hit 2012 earnings.

BAE has said it expects to see only modestgrowth in EPS this year, as spending cuts hit theU.S. military budget in a process known as“sequestration”.

March 20 - 26, 2013

financialmirror.com | CYPRUS | 3

Cyprus faces Euro-cliffl EU vultures ready to grab Russian deposits, as parliament

rejects deposit tax for bailout

Members of parliament rejected a deeply unpopular tax onbank deposits on Tuesday, throwing into doubt a 10 bln eurobailout needed to avert default and a banking collapse.

The 56-seat parliament voted by 36 votes against and 19abstentions from the ruling Democratic Rally to bury the bill, acondition of a 10 bln euro bailout.

Finance Minister Michael Sarris is already in Moscow to calmjittery nerves over the Eurogroup’s “bail in” plans that will hurtRussian depositors, while he will also explore the prospects offinding investors to rescue the nationalised Popular Laiki Bank.

Finance Ministry Director General Andreas Charalambousconfirmed Sarris’ plans, but also added that in eth case of a failureto pass the bank levy bill through parliament, abandoning the sin-gle European currency and returning to the Cyprus Pound wasnot a serious option.

Meanwhile, press reports suggest that Russian depositors havealready been moving their savings out of the island, with someheaded to Malta and Latvia.

Charalambous said that these were knee-jerk measures, as theproposed increase in the Cyprus corporate tax rate to 12.5%, fromthe basic 10%, would still be attractive for international business-es in Cyprus.

Even London Mayor Boris Johnson joined the “vultures” hop-ing to grab a piece of the action, with reports saying that on wel-coming Russian money from Cyprus, he said: “We’re rolling outthe red carpet in a pretty promiscuous way.”

Some analysts believe there could be a sort of contagion, ifcountries like Greece run out of options to close budget gaps.Cyprus does not have anywhere else to turn for the money, whichis the primary reason it took such measures.

Already, some Arab banks operating in Cyprus are threateningto abandon the island if the government goes ahead with the pro-posal to impose taxes on depositors, the World Union of ArabBankers warned on Monday.

“This measure could destroy Cyprus as a financial hub in theregion,” it said in a statement, noting that Cyprus was risking thecredibility that has helped attract dozens of Arab and foreign

banks as well as hundreds of thousands of depositors from all overthe world.

“It is unfair to burden the Arab banks with the cost of increas-ing the capital of the troubled Cypriot banks. The customers ofthese banks should not pay the price of this decision,” itexplained.

President Anastasiades used social media to try and drum upsupport for his plans.

“I totally share the unpleasant feelings that such as difficultand painful decision is causing. Which is why I will continue tofight to improve on the Eurogroup’s decisions,” he said on hisfacebook and Twitter accounts.

Meanwhile, the Pension Fund of the state Electricity Authoritysaid it would renew a 13-week T-bill worth 100 mln euros thatmatures on March 21 and said it would maintain its funds withlocal banks and Coops.

IMF BACKS BID

Meanwhile, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said onTuesday that the Fund supports the Cypriot government’s effortsto ease the pain for smaller depositors under a levy that is part ofan international bailout for the island,.

“We are also obviously extremely supportive of the Cypriotauthorities’ intentions to introduce more progressive rates in theone-off levy or deposit-share swap within the agreed financialenvelope of 5.8 bln (euros),” she told a conference.

Lagarde also said Cyprus needed to reduce the size of its bank-ing sector and restructure it.

The government’s latest draft plan submitted to parliamentwould exempt small savings account holders from the proposedlevy on all deposits. Under the latest proposal, savers with lessthan 20,000 euros in their accounts will not pay the 6.75% levythat the government had agreed to over the weekend.

Under the original plan, all accounts under 100,000 euroswould have paid the 6.75% tax, but accounts greater than 100,000will still pay a 9.9% levy as outlined in the original agreement.

Nowotny says ECB ready to give liquidity

The European Central Bank will provide liquidity tobanks in Cyprus when they reopen, ECB GoverningCouncil member Ewald Nowotny was quoted as sayingon Tuesday.

“No decisions have been taken so far because wedon’t know the final results of the discussions inCyprus, but given the present legal background, theECB will be prepared to fulfil this task of a lender of lastresort,” Nowotny told Dow Jones in an interview.

Nowotny also said that there was “still an open per-spective” on including bondholders of Cypriot banks inthe financial rescue of the debt-ridden island, but added“the legal and technical problems are much higher”than in taxing depositors according to current plans.

Russia to gain more than it loses

Russia could ultimately benefit from Cyprus’ intro-duction of a levy on bank deposits because it will makeRussia’s investment climate appear more stable,Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov said on Tuesday.“It is a good chance for the Russian banking system tofight for new depositors, new clients. And demonstratethat our banking system is stable,” he told reporters.

“For Russia, in the mid-term perspective, this(opens) good opportunities... Russia will gain morethan it will lose. For Russia this is a chance to demon-strate its more predictable rules of treating investors.”

Officials, including President Vladimir Putin, havestrongly criticised Cyprus’ plan to introduce a levy onbank deposits, which will impact Russian companiesand individuals that hold billions of euros in Cypriotaccounts.

MoD flies emergencycash to British personnel

An RAF plane carrying 1 mln euros flew in fromBritain as a contingency measure to provide militarypersonnel with emergency loans, the Ministry ofDefence said in London.

The money will be used for British personnel andtheir families if cash machines and debit cards stopworking, following disagreement over the one-off levyof up to 10% on savings that would affect 3,000 Britishmilitary personnel, as well as 25,000 expatriates andretirees living on the island.

An MoD spokesman said the situation was beingkept under review and that it would consider furthershipments if required. “The MoD is asking personnel ifthey want their March, and future months’ salaries paidinto UK bank accounts, rather than Cypriot accounts.”

“Stretch bonds, give CDs to depositors”One of the world’s leading experts on debt restructurings,

who recently advised Greece, has proposed extending the matu-rities of Cypriot sovereign bonds and giving uninsured deposi-tors in its banks certificates of deposit (CDs) as a solution to theMediterranean island’s crisis.

In a paper entitled “Walking Back from Cyprus”, LeeBuchheit of New York law firm Cleary Gottlieb Steen &Hamilton and his frequent collaborator, Mitu Gulati of DukeLaw School, say European governments “trespassed on conse-crated ground” with their plan to impose a levy on insureddepositors in Cyprus.

They sketch out an alternative which would protect saverswith deposits under 100,000 euros and grant those above thatlevel 5-10 year interest-bearing bank CDs corresponding to theamount of their savings in excess of the insured threshold.

In addition, the maturities of all sovereign bonds would beextended by a fixed number of years, for example five.

“By our reckoning, this would reduce the total amount ofthe required official sector bailout funding during a three-yearprogramme period by about 6.6 bln euros,” the paper says.

Euro zone finance ministers reversed course and urged theCypriot government on Monday to exempt small savers from aplanned levy on deposits initially imposed at a meeting inBrussels in the early hours of Saturday.

But parliament rejected the 10 bln euro bailout deal onTuesday, with Cyprus facing a risk of default and a banking col-lapse if it is unable to find a way out of the impasse.

That is why the Buchheit and Gulati proposal, a draft ofwhich was published on the website of the Social ScienceResearch Network on Monday, may be relevant. Buchheit has

crafted or advised on debt restructurings for the past 30 years,including those in Uruguay, Greece and Iraq.

The authors argue that the CDs would lock in funding forCypriot banks for many years, while the bond extension wouldavoid the need for those maturities to be repaid out of officialsector bailout funds.

They concede that their solution could raise a number ofobjections - among them that Cypriot banks would still need tobe recapitalised and that the banks themselves own most of thecountry’s debt.

European governments and the IMF might also object to asolution which may not address their concerns about debt sus-tainability in Cyprus.

But the authors present their proposal as the least painfuland risky of a limited number of unattractive options.

Bankers offer Cypriot-only solution to avert default

The chiefs of the local banks are urging the government toavoid a bank levy on foreign savers as this would be“catastrophic” and about 50% of deposits would be wiped outwith foreign-owned branches closing overnight that would spellthe end of the Cypriot ambitions to become a finance servicescentre.

The bankers are expected to submit their proposals toPresident Nicos Anastasiades today, where they will say thatraising the 5.8 bln in order to secure the remaining 10 bln inrescue funds should be a “Cypriot solution”.

The proposals will include measures to counterbalance any

bank levy, by introducing lower interest, extension of repaymentand government bonds or other instruments linked to futurenatural gas revenues.

Also, plans include the immediate restructuring of Bank ofCyprus and Popular Laiki, to include their ‘good bank’ and ‘badbank’ assets as well as a selloff of overseas operations, whilemergers and closer cooperation with third lender Hellenic andthe Coops is also on the cards.

Banks will remain closed on Wednesday, but ATM machineswill continue to be replenished, as the government tries to reviseits bank levy legislation and probably resubmit it to parliament.

March 20 - 26, 2013

4 | CYPRUS | financialmirror.com

2020 vision: the North European Union of 5 As some of you might have heard me say on air this week,

I have a nasty feeling that the eurozone elites took an uncon-scious decision in the early hours of Saturday morning to cutthe umbilical cord with southern and peripheral Europe andthereby lay the ground for a break-up, not only the eurozonebut of the European Union itself.

If they did do this, albeit subconsciously, then they did itfor perfectly sound political reasons. Their voters are tired ofsubsidising euro peripherals whom they perceive to be lessdisciplined and more corrupt than they are.

Read the local populist press in these countries and youknow what I mean. The German popular press’s attitudetowards Mediterraneans is about as multicultural as theBritish popular press’s attitude towards Germans.

And the Greek press (perhaps soon to be the Cypriot press)on Germany is even worse.

To put it a pessimist’s spin on it, the realisation of Saturdaymorning was that the Europeans detest each other just asmuch as they did in the hundred years’ war.

North European voters might like sunning it up in theMediterranean but they have never stopped thinking of theseswarthy types as a bunch of dirty grafters.

Likewise, Mediterraneans have never stopped thinking ofnorth Europeans as a bunch of unsmiling killjoys who nevermake up in tourist volumes for the little they spend when theyare there on holiday.

Better to admit the truth and create a smaller club of like-minded types.

How would it happen?I calculate that the deposit haircut saved the German tax-

payer less than a day of annual German budget revenue. So when Spain gets into trouble, which it has a much

higher risk of doing now than it did before, it will need a lotmore than the miniscule EUR 5.8 bln raised by Cyprus fromthis measure.

The same goes for vulnerable Italy and increasingly vulner-able France.

But the clear message sent on Saturday morning was thatthe north European taxpayer will not foot the whole bill tosupport the Union. Targeting bondholders will doubtless notraise enough, so a large part of the hit will have to be taken athome in the form of bank deposits.

Southern European politicians will calculate that the com-

bination of Spanish/Greek unemployment and the “robbery”of deposits will never get through their parliaments. Themoney will not come from northern Europe either, so theywill have to exit the euro. Once Spain goes, many will follow.

The new northern groupWhat might the new Europe look like? In the north, we

would have a small, tight group dominated by Germany. The first rule will be that this group can only comprise

countries that will never be a burden on the German taxpay-er. That means it would consist of five well behaved north-erners: Germany, Benelux and Austria.

If Finland (for which, read Nokia) can cope with its cur-rency soaring against the other Nordics and US/Japaneserivals, it might just be allowed to stay in, partly as a rewardfor consistently backing harsh deals against those peskysoutherners.

You could call them the North European Union (NEU). Asall countries in this group would have at least one Germanicnational or official language (Flemish for Belgium, Swedishfor Finland), they might even adopt German as their linguafranca. Then we could call them Die NEUen.

They would keep the euro, which would soar in value, andmake their own journey to full political and economic union.

Italy, a founding member of the original club of six, will beout, as would France. It is too big, too “southern” and too fis-cally profligate for this tight-knit club.

So what would the outsiders do? The EU outsiders will have left the eurozone long before

Die Neuen formalises the relationship that they might havestarted to cement last Saturday.

Since Britain and France would never agree on who woulddominate the remaining 22 countries (or 23 with Croatia),the remainder would split between a coalition of the willing

(they certainly won’t call it a union) centred on the UK. This might comprise the new NATO countries in the east

and potentially also Turkey. We might call it the Coalition ofFriendly European Nation States (C-FENS).

The Mediterraneans would cluster around a newly resur-gent France. The Southern European Alliance, which wouldbe known by its French acronym, AES (pronounced “ace”).

War or peace?The big question is whether this new Europe would be

peaceful, or whether it would fall into war. Here we have to remember that the past 60 years of rela-

tive economic stability have been, to use a fashionable euro-zone term, “unique and exceptional”, helped a great deal byfavourable demographics, a low starting base for incomesand technological change.

So an awful lot will depend on what happens to theeconomies that exit the euro.

If it means a resurgence of post-devaluation growth andjobs combined with fiscal discipline, then the instinct will beto sign trade deals, just like the European Coal and SteelCommunity of 1951.

Countries might cooperate peacefully on a distant butfriendly, “good walls make good neighbours” basis.

If it means mass devaluation and inflation, then theinstinct for trade wars, leading to real wars, will be strong.The old soil of Europe will again be steeped in blood.

If you find this vision shocking, perhaps it is because Ihave had the equivalent of only one night’s sleep in 72 hours,so that I can answer the world media’s questions about thatfunny little place called Cyprus.

I hope my vision does not materialise. But in June 2010, ignorant that the banks had already

invested in Greek government bonds, I hoped I was wrongwhen I drafted a book chapter saying that Cyprus might gothe way of the PIIGS. By the time it was published, it wasalready happening.

In mid- 2012 I was drafting another report saying thatIsrael and Turkey might start talking about Israel sending gasto Turkey. By the time the report was published a few weeksago, that was already happening too.

This one might take a bit longer for my predictions tounfold. But as that rare thing called a pro-European Brit, Ireally do hope that I am wrong this time.

By Fiona MullenDirector, Sapienta Economics Ltd

CSE suspends tradinguntil banks re-open

Trading on the Cyprus Stock Exchange (CSE) hasbeen suspended to safeguard the interest of allinvestors and until such time as banks remain closeddue to negotiations of a 10 bln euro bail-out and 5.8bln euro bail-in programme to be taxed from savings inorder to rescue theCyprus economy.

The CSE announ-ced that the decisionwas taken becausebanks remain closedafter it was decided thatTuesday and Wednes-day were declared bankholidays and that “theclearing and settle-ment of stock exchange transactions which have beenexecuted on the CSE cannot be effected.”

The CSE added in its announcement that a decisingfactor for the bourse to close was “the current veryserious developments in the Cyprus economy due torecent decisions of the Eurogroup which affect thebanking sector in Cyprus and the economy in generalwhich affects banks whose securities are listed on theStock Exchange.”

Bank of Cyprus and Popular Laiki Bank requirebailout funds in order to recapitalise and remain liq-uid, while Hellenic Bank, unaffected by bailout needs,would be affected by a systemic failure of the island’sbanking system.

Alpha, Piraeus keen to buy Cypriot bank units

Greece is close to completing a deal for a Greek takeover ofthe local units of Cypriot banks, after at least two of the country’sbiggest lenders showed interest – Alpha Bank and Piraeus Bank.

Greece has been rushing to wrap up the deal in a bid toprotect its battered banking system from the fallout from aplan to impose a levy on bank deposits in Cyprus, but itsefforts have been held up by delays in Nicosia in approving thetax. Euro zone finance ministers excluded the Greek branch-es of Cypriot banks from the controversial tax included in theisland’s international bailout on condition that those unitswould be transferred to Greek banks.

“The Greek government is ready to conclude the transferof Cypriot bank operations in the country to Greek banks in afew hours,” a senior government official said on Tuesday.“But we have to wait for the parliament in Cyprus to vote.”

The official said there was also a “plan B”, without provid-ing details.

Such a plan could involve Hellenic Postbank, a small lendercontrolled by the country’s bank bailout fund HellenicFinancial Stability Fund, if interest by other lenders is deemedunsatisfactory, bankers have said.

The three Cypriot banks with operations in Greece - Bankof Cyprus, Cyprus Popular Bank (CPB) and Hellenic Bank -have about a 10% share of the banking market based on loansand about 8% of deposits.

They operate as branches of their Cypriot parents and notas subsidiaries, meaning they are regulated by the CentralBank of Cyprus, which also provides them with fundingthrough its emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) facility.

Their ELA exposure stems primarily from their Greek oper-ations and covers their funding gap - the difference betweenassets and liabilities. The Greek units have higher loan-to-deposit ratios compared to their Cypriot parents.

Together they run a network of just over 300 branches inGreece and employ about 5,000 people. Their combined loanportfolio tops 20 bln euros, according to analysts.

The biggest of the three is Bank of Cyprus, which has a net-work of 181 branches.

The branches of the three Cypriot banks remain closed onTuesday and Wednesday, in line with the extended bank holi-day in Cyprus. Shares of Bank of Cyprus and CPB, which arealso listed in Athens, did not trade.

Athens has rushed to reassure savers in Greece they willnot be affected by the Cypriot levy and that the country’sbanking system is stable and there was little indication ofpanic as Greek banks reopened on Tuesday after a three-dayweekend. “We don’t have withdrawals because of the Cypriotissue,” a senior bank executive said. “It’s like any other day -we don’t see any differences.”

Bankers said there was no rush to withdraw savings onTuesday although concerns remain that the tax on depositsmay reverse a trend of deposit inflows back into the Greekbanking system since fears of a Greek euro exit began to fade.

“Overall, the situation is calm,” said the treasurer of a Greekbank. “We have had phone calls from clients of Cypriot banksasking us what interest rate we can offer if they move theirmoney to our bank. But I don’t see any trend developing ofwithdrawals from Greek banks.”

March 20 - 26, 2013

financialmirror.com | CYPRUS | 5

There’s nothing like having part of your savings account con-fiscated overnight to make you feel that your money isn’t safe.

That’s what depositors in Cypriot banks awoke to on March16, when they found their accounts frozen for at least five days toavoid panicked withdrawals.

As part of a bailout package for Cyprus, euro-area leaders ini-tially agreed to impose a one-time tax of 9.9% on uninsureddeposits in Cypriot banks of 100,000 euros or more ($129,570)and 6.75% on insured deposits of less than 100,000 euros. Theexact size and scope of the levies may yet change, but regardlessa line has been crossed: Forcing depositors to participate inbailouts is now on the table in troubled euro- area countries.

The move would not only ensure that Cyprus’s economy willcontract sharply, necessitating more bailout money or a debtrestructuring in the future, but it may also reverse most of theprogress euro-area policy makers have made toward ending theeuro crisis.

The one-off deposit levy was agreed to as part of the Cyprusbailout for two reasons. First, Germany’s main opposition party,the Social Democrats, demanded that depositors participate inthe bailout so that German funds wouldn’t be used to bail outRussian oligarchs with money of questionable origin in Cypriotbanks. The German government can’t pass the Cyprus bailout inthe Bundestag without the Social Democrats’ support, so it hadto cater to this demand.

UNSUSTAINABLE BURDEN Second, the International Monetary Fund insisted that

Cyprus’s debt burden would be unsustainable if the countryreceived all of the 17 bln euros that it needs in the form of bailoutloans. To reduce the size of the bailout, policy makers had threeoptions: write down sovereign debt, write down bank debt or raiddeposits. Most Cypriot sovereign debt is under English law andcan’t be restructured. Cypriot banks have very little debt and areheavily reliant on deposits for funding.

Raiding deposits seemed the most expedient way to shrink thesize of the bailout, but in reality this just ensures that additionalmoney will have to be stumped up for Cyprus, or that Cyprus willhave to restructure its debt, or both.

Cyprus’s banks are already a mess. Cypriots reacted to thedeposit levy over the weekend by lining up at disabled ATMs inthe hopes of withdrawing money. If there is a run, the bankswill need far more than the estimated 10 bln euros estimatedto be recapitalized. The European Central Bank could plug thegap with emergency liquidity assistance, but bank lendingwould continue to contract sharply. Private consumptionwould also fall as unemployment continued to rise andCypriots worried that they may be subject to future tax

increases — on bank deposits among other things. Furthermore, the new government burned through almost all

of its political capital with this bailout package. Implementing thebailout agreement’s unpopular structural reforms would becomedifficult, if not impossible. Cyprus couldn’t expect to benefit fromcompetitiveness gains any time soon. The economy wouldalmost certainly contract more sharply than previously assumed,

causing Cyprus to miss its government deficit targets and send-ing Cyprus’s debt-to-gross-domestic-product ratio soaring. Aswas the case in Greece, the only way to plug the funding gap forCyprus would be a second bailout, a debt restructuring or both.

MELTDOWN RISK Whatever the implications of the depositor levy for Cyprus,

they’re minor compared with the potential impact on the rest ofthe region. The tail risk of a meltdown of the euro area is signifi-cantly lower now than it was a year ago. This is down to twodevelopments: the ECB’s announcement of a bond-buying pro-gram — the Outright Monetary Transactions — and the tentativesteps that policy makers have taken toward constructing a bank-ing union. The Cyprus bailout agreement could significantlyundermine these developments.

Policy makers have stressed that Cyprus is a unique case givenits tax-haven status and its supersized banking sector (about800% of GDP). Depositors in other weak euro-area countries maybelieve this for now. The second a country comes under stress,however, depositors will know that their participation in a poten-tial solution is now part of the bailout tool kit. As a result, theymay rush to withdraw their savings.

So far the ECB’s promise to do whatever it takes has goneuntested, but the mere existence of the OMT program has calmedmarkets significantly. The heightened risk of a bank run in theeuro area may reveal the Achilles’ heel of the ECB’s strategy: Noamount of bond buying by the euro area’s central bank can mit-igate the impact of a bank run on the economy.

The Cyprus depositor levy could also undermine steps towardestablishing a banking union. First, a banking union is aimed at— among other things — breaking the negative feedback loopbetween banks and governments in the euro area. The Cyprus

bailout achieves the opposite. As in Greece, Portugal and Ireland,the funds to recapitalize Cyprus’s ailing banks will be funneledthrough the state and added onto the sovereign-debt burden. InCyprus, the nexus between banks and governments will be tight-ened further as loans to banks (namely deposits) are captured tofinance sovereign debt.

If there were a bank run in the euro area, the ECB would prob-ably finance the run by allowing national central banks to provideemergency lending assistance. Such borrowing by banks is guar-anteed by the government, further blurring the line between thefinances of the commercial banks and the state.

Second, the Cyprus bailout deal makes a mockery of depositinsurance in Europe. This doesn’t bode well for the credibility ofa European Union-wide deposit guarantee, one of the basic tenetsof a banking union.

The bailout agreement will fail to deal with the Cyprus prob-lem and may reintroduce the risk of a financial collapse in theregion, which had been significantly reduced. If this is the case,then market pressure on the weaker economies in Europe couldreach levels not seen since last August, only this time against abackdrop of much higher austerity fatigue. That is an explosivecombination.

(Megan Greene is a Bloomberg View columnist and chiefeconomist at Maverick Intelligence. She is also a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. The opinions expressed are her own.)

Euro area ruins its progress with Cyprus deal

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Russian deposits total €25 bln, face “moderate risk” says Moody’s

Russian bank deposits in Cyprus, the root cause of Germany’sresentment to bailing out the island’s economy, are estimated atabout 24.8 bln euros (US$ 32 bln), half of which are depositedwith Russian subsidiary banks on the island, according toMoody’s. “Russian banks’ operations in Cyprus could incur mod-erate credit losses if those banks have material exposures toCypriot companies of Russian origin or to Cypriot banks,”Moody’s Investors Service said in a Special Comment.

The rating agency has identified three channels through whichRussian banks are exposed to Cyprus-related risks: loans toCyprus-based companies of Russian origin; bank and corporatedeposits and investments in Cypriot banks; and, Russian sub-sidiaries of Cypriot banks.

Moody’s said its central scenario “does not assume a Cypriotsovereign default or moratorium on external payments in Cyprusthis year. However … there is an elevated probability that thesheer size of Cyprus’s anticipated debt load will compel authori-ties to pursue every avenue for debt reduction, including privatesector losses on Cypriot debt.”

The crystallisation of these risks would be credit negative forRussian banks that have linkages to Cyprus, although not likely tobe material enough to warrant rating actions, given the relativesize of these exposures, the Moody’s report added.

“The main contagion channel for Russian banks is their loansto Cyprus-based companies of Russian origin. We estimate thatthese loans totalled around $30-40 bln in 2012, or around 15%-

20% of Russian banks’ capital base. A potential Cyprus moratori-um on external payments could block loan repayments to Russia,leading to some asset-quality pressures,” explained EugeneTarzimanov, author of the report.

Moody’s said that Russian banks had around $12 bln placedwith Cypriot banks (predominantly Russian bank subsidiaries inCyprus) at year-end 2012, plus around $1 bln invested in the cap-ital of their banking and non-banking subsidiaries in Cyprus.While these investments are mostly based on parent-subsidiaryrelationships, defaults by endogenous Cypriot banks, a depositfreeze and/or a moratorium on external payments, could lead tosome losses for Russian banks.

There are also indirect risks for Russian banks related toRussian corporate deposits at Cypriot banks. Moody’s estimatesthat non-resident Russian corporate deposits in Cyprus couldnear $19 bln. In case of bank defaults, deposit freeze or burdensharing with wholesale depositors, these companies could takelosses on their deposits or lose the possibility to repatriate theirfunds. In turn, this will decrease their capacity to service bankdebt back in Russia.

The third transmission channel is Russian subsidiaries ofCypriot banks, which Moody’s said “is not as significant as the pre-vious two as the contagion risk affects just a few small Russian sub-sidiaries of Cypriot banks. These subsidiaries could face heightenedcredit risks, reputational damage and deposit outflows because ofconcerns related to their parent banks’ growing problems.”

Energy is the fuel of Europe’s economic engine. However,energy production and consumption have environmentalimpacts. Energy related emissions contribute to pollution ofair, water and soil while also posing risks to human health,nature and biodiversity. Climate change along with anincreasing dependency on energy imports are only a few ofthe risks the European economy is facing today. In that spir-it, sustainable energy policies aim to reduce these threats,while ensuring the security of supply and the competitive- ness of the EU industries.

Renewable sources of energy such as wind power, solar,hydro-electric, tidal power, geothermal energy and biomass,are essential alternatives to fossil fuels. Their use reducesgreenhouse gas emissions. It diversifies energy supply sinceit reduces sole dependence on unreliable and volatile fossilfuel markets (oil and gas in particular). The growth of renew-able energy sources is one of the main priorities of EU 2020because it leads to creative and innovative new technologies,improves trade balance and stimulates employment inEurope by creating employment opportunities. In January2007, the Commission published a Renewable EnergyRoadmap outlining a long-term strategy. It called for amandatory target of a 20% share of renewable energies in theEU’s energy mix by 2020, a target which was endorsed by EU

leaders in March 2007. In June 2009, the EU became the first major regional

nuclear actor to provide binding legal rules to the main inter-national nuclear safety standards. Today, nuclear stationsproduce a third of the electricity and 15% of the energy con-sumed in the European Union. However, the disaster in theFukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant revealed that,despite any safety measures taken by man, nature remainsunpredictable and therefore it cannot be controlled. It is truethat incidents, involving nuclear power stations, in the scaleof Fukushima or Chernobyl are indeed rare; unfortunatelyhowever, when they occur, they have immeasurable conse-quences which cannot be ignored. This is why the GermanGovernment has announced its intentions to shut all nuclearreactors by 2022.

The gradual reduction of nuclear power usage acrossEurope should be paralleled with a new initiative of promot-ing energy from renewable sources. By switching from fossilfuel and greenhouse gas intensive sources of energy, torenewable sources, Europe will be able to fully grasp its sus-tainable potential - in economic, ecologic and social terms.

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Property misselling could cost €1 blnIn ‘A Plan for All Reasons: Six Months On?, a white paper

published by Maxwell Alves Solicitors in the City of London,the firm’s consultant George Kounis argues that Cyprusmust adopt a plan to clear, what he compares to the “Stablesof Aegeas” if the island’s property market, which is vital tothe economy and the banks, is to breathe again.

“The cost could be up to a billion but it is a necessity thathas been ignored for far too long”, he argues. He points tothe Directives issued by the Central Bank of Cyprus since2003 asking the banks to put the brakes on the property sell-ing frenzy which inevitably created the bubble and the after-math we are witnessing today and warning them againstlending in foreign currencies.

“The banks admit to no wrongdoing, but the evidencesays otherwise”, Kounis continued. “In any event, what hap-pened is not only morally but also legally wrong and they willbe tied up in court battles for many years if they continue to

ignore the strength of public sentiment and the determina-tion of their victims to see justice done.”

And it is not only banks and property developers thatmade money out of this. The government also profited fromtaxes on mis-sold properties, lawyers, sales agents and vari-ous other service providers benefited and even HM Revenueand Customs in the UK managed to get its share by claimingtax on interest earned on escrow accounts. They are now allsitting back watching the banks take people to court for over-inflated loan balances without even bothering to repossesstheir properties first because they say they are worthless.“This is obscene”, commented Kounis.

Foreign currency mortgages that rose by 40-60% whenproperty values fell by 70% are only part of the story. Rentalincomes have tumbled, and rent guarantees offered by prop-erty developers (usually by adding the total guarantee com-mitment to the price) have been dishonoured. The banks

took the risk of lending on overinflated property prices,ignoring the Loan to Value ratios imposed by the CentralBank, but now they do not want to face the losses. The gov-ernment enjoyed the benefits but now refuses to step in,Kounis added.

The White Paper promotes a plan that will see all partiesbenefit from a fair, effective and prompt settlement. It willcost a lot of money to resolve but, it is money that the vari-ous beneficiaries should not have made in the first place andit will be much cheaper than putting thousands of casesthrough the courts with doubtful results. It is estimated thatloan repayments lost because people have been forced todefault run into millions every month. By settling with theseborrowers, those who can keep their properties will resumerepayments at reduced rates, whereas new buyers will befound for those who cannot afford to keep their propertieseven if a substantial reduction is made to their loan balances.

The rejection by parliament of the Eurogroup’sdemands for a one-off levy on depositors in order tosecure a 10 bln euro bailout for Cyprus was drivenmainly by the usual dose of hysteria by ignorantpoliticians and to some extent by an irresponsiblemedia.

From the moment that the “unexpected” bail-inplan was made official at dawn on Saturday, untilthe final vote in parliament, TV stations and newssites have been bombarding us withunsubstantiated news “revelations” and immaturecomments.

The few analysts who had reasonable argumentsto support or reject the bail-in plan on depositors,

were quickly replaced by radical thinkers thatsimply added to the hype of the days, added with atouch of carnival frenzy and a spice of GreenMonday.

The most ridiculous incident occurred when ajournalist, upset by the rapping on the knuckles hehad just received from a Disy MP, walked off the set,as against some politicians or panelists being upsetwith their inquisitors and leaving the studio.

Such childish antics are indicative of theimmaturity of our media community, whileallowing populist guests to blurt out extremitiesregardless of the impact on the naïve public alsoshows that some newscasters are incapable ofcontrolling tempers on a show.

This is not the way we would have wanted tomark the 20th anniversary of this newspaper, whilethe developments of recent days have also cast

serious doubts about the survival of the “seriouspress” in a market where haste and populism havereplaced mature thinking and healthy debates.

The media industry – print, broadcast andelectronic – has steadfastly defended the right toself-regulation in order to encourage freedom ofspeech and free thinking. But judging form the waythat journalists often resort to amateur tacticssimply to win over public opinion, regardless ifwhat they are doing is in the public good, perhapswe should think about following the path of the U.K.media industry that has reluctantly accepted theLeveson Report that arose from the tabloid scandalsand abuse of privacy.

If the banking sector will undergo a majoroverhaul over the next few years, maybe we shouldconsider overhauling the media, legal and financesectors as well.

EDITORIAL

Should media share blame for crisis?

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March 20 - 26, 2013

6 | OPINION | financialmirror.com

A Renewable Energy Future is PossibleBByy AAnnttiiggoonnee PPaappaaddooppoouulloouu

MEP (DIKO, S&D)

They say a camel is a horse designed by a committee.The action is both illegal and against existing principles governing

financial consumer protection in at least two principles Equitableand Fair Treatment of Consumers and Disclosure andTransparency.

This action, if fulfilled, will inevitably lead to the following:- Distrust of authority;- Avoid disclosure and banks;- Flight of money from Cyprus;- Flight of money from the Euro group;- Pressure to depreciate the Euro;- Probable increase in Euro interest rates;- Further financial burden on debt-ridden Euro zone countries

(France, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece etc);- Further cost of maintaining and remaining within the Euro;- Further global shift to non-banking and cash transactions;- Further decline in banking sector activity (lifeline of govern-

ments that depend on them for audit representation, and tax collec-tion effectiveness).

Specifically, the financial ‘haircut’ or “levy on bank deposits”, is anact without precedence and high risk and gives the following impres-sion in the mind of the citizens:

That at any time of financial instability, specific groups ofpeople can be charged for owning money in a bank. Or more gen-erally that people can be charged at any time in any place forwhatever reason!

So, although on the onset, for the naïve, it might seem like aharmless “levy on bank deposits”, it is in actual fact a legally dis-putable and financial confidence-shattering experience for all, that willburden all markets in the end, from those imposing it, to those ini-tially benefiting from it.

I am not particularly concerned about Cyprus and its future.Having discovered abundant natural resources, Cyprus is set to pros-per over the next decade. My real concern is rather on the Euro-groupmembers, their inability to handle financial matters in a sensible man-ner and their individual short-term confused objectives that willinevitably lead to further financial distress for the MediterraneanEuro-group members.

REPLY TO THE HAIRCUT — 2

The only sense that one can make from the reasoning of the“Heads” of the Euro-group strategy, is the following likely scenario.

The Euro is threatened over the next few years, because of thefinancial debt of its member countries, namely the southernEuropean members, including Portugal, Spain, France and Italy,

whose combined needs are in the trillions. Fearing a possible demandto bail these countries out, and without sufficient funds, the “Heads”decided to create an “acceptable” scenario of immediate taxation thatcan fill this gap from money from the people of each country.

Basically, because the European integration did not have an effec-tive mechanism, the pillars of European integration (strategicallyorganised policies on taxation, balance budget, growth model, fiscaland monetary operations) they have created a “novel” way of taxing

the people to fill each country’s shortfalls. This, of course, is a shortterm “fix”, if it works, since again the aforementioned issues must beaddressed to be sustainable in the long term.

Using Cyprus as a practice model to show it works and create aprecedent seemed logical, since Cyprus has found natural resourcesand will ultimately recover from the financial distress over the nextfew years, this will give a clear victory for a successful bailout from thefunds of the people. A model that can then be “acceptable” and usedin the rest of the ailing countries in Europe.

This “rational” thinking has the following flaws:1. We live in an internet society now and information flow is

immediate and cannot be controlled, thus people will realise the scopeand react to it.

2. Reaction will include the following:a) Further disruption in the banking sector as a whole;b) Distrust of banking activities in financially distressed countries,

including the US.The above will lead to a knock-on effect of high capital volatility

that will benefit only strategic thinking hedge funds, and will cost thewhole global community plenty.

3. Unlinked economic countries with reserves, eg. China,Switzerland, Australia, Abu-Dhabi, etc. will stand to benefit in the longrun.

4. The rest will seek to increase transaction cost to and from theireconomies, to make the difference in gap.

There are two sayings that match what happened: “may you livein interesting times”, and of course, “be careful what you wish for”,because you might get it.

REPLY TO THE HAIRCUT 3 – CYPRUS, THE DAY AFTER

Due to its inability to properly hedge itself against this financialpredicament, obviously using its natural reserve finds since 2011,Cyprus has no choice but to accept this offer and hope for a speedyrecovery.

This will probably happen, if:1. We have a contingency long-term plan of opting out of the

Euro, in case the Euro is adversely affected by the debt-ridden south-ern nations, and this bailout plan cannot be copied as easily as it wasin the case of Cyprus.

2. We have complete cover of a subordinate loan for up to theamount that may be withdrawn from the deposits.

3. Addressing the reduction of the financial sector’s revenues by30-50%, and shift towards the upcoming resource-based industries.

4. The establishment of strategic industries funded both internal-ly and externally, from established Industrial Investment Funds.

5. A scenario analysis be made and ways to avoid future loses fromthe contingency of money being moved from banks into reserved-based country banks, real estate in Cyprus, etc, as this would haveimmediate effects.

The lawyers, accountants and banks, as of today, will cease toenjoy income from foreign investors and depositors. Thus, a refocuson other activities based again on our strategy for investment in nat-ural resources. A planned-out strategy and informed by an establishedthink tank, will help the above sectors avoid “bleeding” during thetransition period of 3-4 years, since these sectors constitute a largepart of our GDP, and have a direct effect on the rest of our industries.

IMMEDIATE REAL ESTATE UP-SIDE

A scenario may be that people may opt to buy property, to avoidpossible future risk-loss from bank deposits. This will aid our econo-my, since people will be buying land and the European Central Bankwill be subsidising this, (with its commitment to maintain a balancebanking debt/equity ratio). This of course, has its risks, and a policyshould be established and implemented to avoid over-inflation andpossible real-estate ‘bubble’ scenarios, while allowing at the sametime this investment process to help fuel our recovery to growth.

So, overall the Cyprus economy is like a bicycle, easy to stop, andvery easy to get going again. We must however look at the details ofany deal and with insight and forethought, each time readdressing thechanges before us, making strategic planning and re-planning, for ourchildren.

Reply to the Haircut

March 20 - 26, 2013

financialmirror.com | COMMENT | 7

By Paris ZachariadesExecutive President, Century 21 Real Estate (Cyprus)

The Economist’s StoneThis year marks the 100th anniversaries of two distinct insti-

tutional innovations in American economic policy: the intro-duction of the federal income tax and the establishment of theFederal Reserve. They are worth commemorating, if onlybecause we are at risk of forgetting what we have learned sincethen.

Initially, neither the income tax nor the Fed was associatedwith the explicit concepts of fiscal and monetary policy. Indeed,it wasn’t until after the experience of the 1930’s that they cameto be viewed as potential instruments for macroeconomic man-agement. John Maynard Keynes pointed out the advantages offiscal stimulus in circumstances like the Great Depression.Milton Friedman blamed the Depression on the Fed for allow-ing the money supply to fall.

Keynes is associated with a belief in activist economic poli-cy aimed at ensuring counter-cyclical responses to economicfluctuations – expansionary policies during recessions and pol-icy tightening during upswings. Friedman, by contrast,opposed discretionary policymaking, believing that govern-ment institutions lacked the ability to get the timing right. Butboth opposed pro-cyclical policy, such as the misguided US fis-cal and monetary tightening of 1937: before the economy hadfully recovered, President Roosevelt raised taxes and cut spend-ing, while the Federal Reserve raised reserve requirements, pro-longing and worsening the Great Depression.

After World War II, students and policymakers internalizedthe lessons of the 1930’s. But episodes in recent decades – forexample, high inflation in the 1970’s – overwhelmed much ofwhat was learned. As a result, many advanced countries todayare repeating the mistake of 1937, despite facing similar macro-economic conditions: high unemployment, low inflation, andnear-zero interest rates.

The pros and cons of austerity nowadays have been thor-oughly debated. Austerity’s proponents correctly point out thatpermanently expansionary macroeconomic policies lead tounsustainable deficits, debts, and inflation. Advocates of stimu-lus are right to note that in the aftermath of a recession, whenunemployment is high and inflation is low, the immediate con-sequences of policy contraction are continued unemployment,slow growth, and rising debt/GDP ratios. And pro-cyclicalists,both in the US and Europe, represent the worst of all worlds bypursuing expansionary policies during booms, such as in 2003-07, and contractionary policies during recessions, such as in

2008-2012.But, if counter-cyclicalists are right to favor moderating,

rather than exacerbating, upswings and downswings in theeconomy, we still need to know what works best. Given recentconditions, is monetary or fiscal stimulus the more effectiveinstrument?

John Hicks addressed this question clearly in a once-famous1937 article called “Mr. Keynes and the Classics.” Under theconditions that prevailed then, and that prevail again now (high

unemployment, low inflation, and near-zero interest rates),monetary expansion is relatively less effective, because it can-not push interest rates below zero. Moreover, firms are less like-ly to respond to easy money by investing in new physical capi-tal and labor if they cannot sell what they already produce in thefactories they already have with the workers they alreadyemploy. Fiscal stimulus is relatively more effective in these con-ditions, because it creates demand for goods without driving upthose rock-bottom interest rates and crowding out private-sec-tor demand (as it would in normal times).

None of this should be controversial. Introductory econom-ics used to emphasize the Keynesian multiplier effect: recipi-ents of government spending (or of consumer spending stim-ulated by tax cuts or transfers) respond to the increase in theirincomes by spending more, as do the recipients of that spend-ing, and so on. Again, the multiplier is much more relevantunder current conditions, because it does not fuel higher infla-tion and interest rates (and thus crowd out private spending).

Unfortunately, many economists and politicians have for-gotten much of what they knew (or have been blinded by newtheories of policy ineffectiveness). Indeed, by the time the 2008-2009 global recession hit, even advocates of fiscal stimulus hadlowered their estimates of the multiplier. But the continuingseverity of recessions in the United Kingdom and other coun-

tries pursuing fiscal contraction has suggested that multipliersare not just positive, but greater than one – just as the old wis-dom had it. The International Monetary Fund has responded byforthrightly confessing that official forecasts, including its own,had underestimated the multiplier’s size.

Of course, the effects of fiscal policy are uncertain. Onenever knows, for example, when rising debt levels might alarminternational investors, who then start demanding sharplyhigher interest rates, as happened to countries on the Europeanperiphery in 2010. We are also uncertain about the magnitudeof the negative long-term effects of high tax rates on growth.And monetary policy is much better understood than it was inthe past. Indeed, a much-admired recent paper characterizedmonetary policy as science and fiscal policy as alchemy.

To be sure, the state of knowledge and practice at centralbanks is close to the best that modern society has to offer,whereas fiscal policy is set in a highly political process that ispoorly informed by economic knowledge and largely motivatedby officials’ desire to be re-elected. But the problem with theancient alchemists and their search for the philosopher’s stonewas not that they were stupid or selfish people. Nor was theirproblem that political leaders refused to listen to them. Rather,the state of knowledge at the time simply fell far short of themodern science of chemistry.

In this sense, the term alchemy could be applied to pre-Keynesians like US Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon, whoseprescription at the start of the Great Depression was to “liqui-date labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate farmers, [and] liquidatereal estate” in order to “purge the rottenness out of the sys-tem.” It could also be applied to those today who favor return-ing monetary policy to the pre-1914 gold standard.

This does not mean that either fiscal policy or monetary pol-icy has graduated to the status of a science like chemistry,underpinned by natural laws that generate precisely foreseeableoutcomes. But surely we have learned since 1913 that fiscalexpansion is appropriate under some conditions, even if it isinappropriate under others.

Jeffrey Frankel is Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University.

© Project Syndicate, 2013.www.project-syndicate.org

Commodities on the RiseThe commodity super-cycle – in which commodity prices

reach ever-higher highs, and fall only to higher lows – is notover. Despite the euphoria around shale gas – indeed, despiteweak global growth – commodity prices have risen by as muchas 150% in the aftermath of the financial crisis. In the mediumterm, this trend will continue to pose an inflation risk andundermine living standards worldwide.

For starters, there is the convergence argument. As Chinagrows, its increasing size, wealth, and urbanization will con-tinue to stoke demand for energy, grains, minerals, and otherresources.

For example, the US consumes more than nine times asmuch oil as China on a per capita basis. As more of China’spopulation converges to Western standards of consumption,demand for commodities – and thus their prices – will remainon an upward trajectory.

Of course, not all commodities are equal. For example,although the case for copper seems straightforward, given thatit is a key input for wiring, electronics, and indoor plumbing,a strong bid for iron is not as obvious, given the Chinese infra-structure boom that already has occurred in the last twodecades.

Worst-case estimates have China’s real GDP growing ataround 7% per year over the next decade. Meanwhile, the supplyof most commodities is forecast to grow by no more than 2%annually in real terms. All else being equal, unless China’s com-modity intensity, defined as the amount of a commodity con-sumed to generate a unit of output, falls dramatically, its demandfor commodities will be greater this year than it was last year.

As long as China’s commodity demand grows at a higherrate than global supply, prices will rise. And the rapid econom-ic growth that China’s leaders must sustain in order to liftenormous numbers of people out of poverty – and thus pre-vent a crisis of legitimacy – places a floor under global food,energy, and mineral prices.

To be sure, intensity of use has fallen for some commodi-

ties, like gold and nuclear energy; but for others, such as alu-minum and coal, it has risen since 2000 or, as is the case forcopper and oil, declines have slowed markedly or stalled athigh levels. As the composition of China’s economy continuesto shift from investment to consumption, demand for com-modity-intensive consumer durables – cars, mobile phones,indoor plumbing, computers, and televisions – will rise.

There is also the issue of the so-called reserve price (thehighest price a buyer is willing to pay for a good or service).The reserve price places a cap on how high commodity priceswill go, as it is the price at which demand destruction occurs(consumers are no longer willing or able to purchase the goodor service).

For many commodities, such as oil, the reserve price ishigher in emerging countries than in developed economies.One explanation for the difference is accelerating wage growthacross developing regions, which is raising commoditydemand, whereas stagnating wages in developed markets arecausing the reserve price to decline. By implication, if nothingelse, global energy, food, and mineral prices will continue to bebuoyed by seemingly insatiable emerging-market demand,which commands much higher reserve prices.

Ultimately, emerging economies’ absolute size and rate ofgrowth both matter in charting commodity demand and thefuture trajectory of global commodity prices, with per capitaincome clearly linked to consumers’ wealth. If people feel rich

and enjoy growing wages and appreciating assets, they are lessinclined to cannibalize other spending when commodity con-sumption becomes more expensive. They just pay more andcarry on.

Around the world, governments are taking greater controlof resources and imposing policies that hamper global produc-tion and ultimately force prices higher.

Such price increases can prove particularly inflationary incountries that import commodities. And they can be disas-trous to exporting economies, which risk rapid currencyappreciation and thus a loss of competitiveness.

Of course, technological advances, like hydraulic fracturing(“fracking”) in the shale-gas industry, could increase supplyand therefore lower prices. But mounting environmental chal-lenges, and the limited availability of commodity substitutes,suggest that a reprieve on commodity prices is not near.

There is a perennial temptation to focus on – even tooveremphasize – the short-term, tactical drivers of commodi-ty-price movements, at the expense of giving longer-term,structural factors their due. While short-term factors – forexample, political instability, weather-related disruptions, andspeculative activity – are important determinants of prices,they tell only part of the story.

The economic fundamentals of supply and demand remainthe key factors in driving the direction of commodity pricesand determining whether the commodity super-cycle will per-sist. In practical terms, this means that oil prices, for example,are more likely to hover near $120 per barrel over the nextdecade, rather than $50; and we are unlikely to see a $20 bar-rel of oil ever again.

Dambisa Moyo is the author, most recently, of Winner Take All:China’s Race for Resources and What it Means for the World.

© Project Syndicate, 2013.www.project-syndicate.org

March 20 - 26, 2013

8 | COMMENT | financialmirror.com

By Jeffrey Frankel

By Dambisa Moyo

Going Against Conventional WisdomWhen I finished my graduate studies in 1974, I had the won-

derful fortune of doing postdoctoral work with Harvard MedicalSchool’s Judah Folkman. Dr. Folkman had a theory that theprogression of tumors could be arrested by cutting off theirsource of nourishment. He suggested that tumors emit a sub-stance called tumor-angiogenesis factor, which causes sur-rounding blood vessels to grow toward it, supplying nutritionand removing waste. Folkman hypothesized that this process,angiogenesis, is crucial to the tumor’s survival.

This theory went strongly against conventional wisdom.Scientists who reviewed Folkman’s grants said that the newblood vessels were simply due to inflammation. But Folkmanpersevered, and eventually he proved that such chemical sub-stances do exist. Today, four decades later, such substanceshave been used to treat more than 10 million people with neo-vascular diseases such as macular degeneration and many dif-ferent forms of cancer.

I had a similar experience when I was working in his lab, try-ing to isolate the first inhibitors of blood-vessel growth (whichwere large-molecular-weight substances). This required devel-oping a bioassay that would enable us to observe the inhibitionof blood-vessel growth in the presence of tumors.

Given that tumors take several months to grow, biocompat-ible systems had to be developed that could release proteins andother large-molecular-weight substances slowly and continu-ously in the body – something that scientists were convincedwas impossible. However, after two years of work, I discoveredthat I could modify certain types of polymers to release mole-cules of virtually any size over a 100-day period.

For several years, many of the field’s most respectedchemists and engineers said that our work had to be incorrect.The negative feedback had practical consequences, inhibitingmy ability not only to secure research grants, but also to findfaculty positions (especially given the work’s interdisciplinarynature, which made it difficult to fit into a single universitydepartment). But I kept at it, and, step by step, addressed differ-ent key issues – such as biocompatibility, manufacturing,reproducibility of release, and bioactivity. Today, systems basedon these principles have been used to treat more than 20 mil-lion people.

Another area I started thinking about involved creatingnew polymer materials. Working in a hospital, I saw thatalmost all polymers used in medicine were derived from

household objects. For example, the materials used in girdlesfor women are used in artificial hearts because of their goodflex life. The polymers in mattress stuffing are used in breastimplants. Yet such an approach often leads to problems.Artificial hearts, for example, can cause clots to form whenblood hits their surface – the girdle material – and these clotscan cause strokes and death.

So I began thinking that we needed to find alternatives tosolving medical problems other than by searching for materialsin everyday settings. I believed that researchers could take anengineering-design approach: Ask the question, “What do wereally want in a biomaterial from the standpoints of engineer-ing, chemistry, and biology?” and then synthesize the materi-als from first principles.

As a proof of principle, we decided to synthesize a new fam-ily of biodegradable polymers, called polyanhydrides, for med-ical use. The first step was to select monomers – a polymer’sbuilding blocks – that would be safe in the human body. Wethen synthesized these polymers and discovered that by chang-ing their composition, we could make them last in the body fora period ranging from days to years.

With Henry Brem, now the chief of neurosurgery at JohnsHopkins Hospital, we thought we could use these polymers todeliver drugs locally in the treatment of brain cancer. But I hadto raise money for this project, so I wrote grant applications togovernment agencies that were reviewed by other professors.Their reviews were very negative.

In our first grant proposal, in 1981, the reviewers said that wewould never be able to synthesize the polymers. Yet one of mygraduate students synthesized the polymers for his doctoral the-sis. We sent the proposal back for another review, only to be toldthat the grant should still not be funded, because the polymerswould react with whatever drug we wanted to deliver.

Several researchers in our lab showed that there was no reac-tion. We returned the proposal for another review; it came backwith the comment that the polymers were fragile and wouldbreak. This time, two other researchers addressed the problem.The revised proposal was sent again for evaluation, and now thereviewers’ reason for rejecting it was that new polymers wouldnot be safe to test on animals or people. Another graduate stu-dent showed that the polymers were safe.

Such reviews continued for a long time; but, in 1996, theFood and Drug Administration approved the treatment – thefirst new treatment for brain cancer to be approved in more than20 years. Moreover, the FDA’s approval of polymer-based localchemotherapy created a new paradigm in the drug-delivery field,helping to pave the way for drug-eluting stents and other localdelivery systems.

Something similar happened when Jay Vacanti, a surgeon atMassachusetts General Hospital, and I had an idea in the 1980’sto combine three-dimensional synthetic polymer scaffolds withcells to create new tissues and organs. Once again, the idea wasmet with great skepticism, and it was extremely difficult toobtain peer-reviewed government grants. Today, this concepthas become a cornerstone of tissue engineering and regenera-tive medicine, leading to the creation of artificial skin forpatients with burns or skin ulcers – and someday, one hopes, tothe creation of many other tissues and organs.

My experiences are hardly unique. Scientists throughout his-tory have often had to fight conventional wisdom to validatetheir discoveries. In modern times, Stanley Prusiner’s discoveryof prions, Barry Marshall and Robin Warren’s findings that bac-teria can cause peptic ulcers, and Dan Shechtman’s determina-tion of the structure of quasicrystals are just a few examples (allreceived Nobel Prizes for their research).

The lessons are simple to understand, if difficult to master:Don’t believe everything you read, be willing to challengedogma, and recognize that you may pay a price for it career-wisein the short run, even if you are correct. But the rewards of sci-entific discovery are worth it: technology advances, and theworld can become much better for it.

Robert Langer is Institute Professor at MIT.

© Project Syndicate, 2013.www.project-syndicate.org

March 20 - 26, 2013

financialmirror.com | COMMENT | 9

Migration Is DevelopmentIn September 2000, the United Nations Millennium

Development Goals rallied the international communitybehind a shared vision. The MDGs, which expire in 2015, sig-naled a new era of global cooperation, and triggered realprogress in terms of lifting millions of people out of extremepoverty, improving health and access to education, andempowering women.

The eight original MDGs, which include reducing childmortality and achieving universal primary education, arelauded for their simplicity and measurability. They took anabstract, outsize challenge and distilled it into achievableends. But, as Albert Einstein loved to say, “Not everythingthat counts can be counted, and not everything that can becounted counts.”

Today, it is important that we not become trapped bywhat worked in the past. To succeed, the post-2015 agendamust break the original mold. It must be grounded in a fullernarrative about how development occurs – a narrative thataccounts for complex issues such as migration. Otherwise,the global development agenda could lose its relevance, andthus its grip on stakeholders.

It is perhaps understandable that the original MDGs didnot mention either internal or international migration. Theseare politically sensitive topics that could have polarized,rather than united, the international community. Moreover,our empirical understanding of how migration interacts withdevelopment was limited at the time; there was little datawith which to shape measurable goals.

Yet migration is the original strategy for people seeking toescape poverty, mitigate risk, and build a better life. It hasbeen with us since the dawn of mankind, and its economicimpact today is massive. Migrant remittances exceed thevalue of all overseas development aid combined, to say noth-ing of the taxes that migrants pay, the investments they

make, and the trade they stimulate.As we consider the next-generation development agenda,

it is also critical to understand that migration was a vitalforce in achieving the original MDGs. There are an estimated215 mln international migrants today – a number expectedto grow to 400 mln by 2040 – and another 740 mln internalmigrants who have moved from rural to urban areas within

countries. Each typically supports many family membersback home, which also helps to lift entire communities.

In Bangladesh, for example, just 13% of households thatreceive remittances from abroad are below the poverty line,compared to 34% of non-remittance-receiving households.Evidence from Latin America, Africa, South Asia, and else-where shows that remittances reduce the depth and severityof poverty, and that the additional income is disproportion-ately spent on education and health. In rural Pakistan, remit-tances are associated with higher school enrollment, espe-cially for girls. The list goes on.

Beyond the data, there is no greater symbol of the world’sgrowing interdependence than the movement of people. Ifwe can make meaningful economic progress in the cominggenerations, one of the pivotal reasons will be that people areallowed to move more freely. Advanced countries, with theiradverse demographic trends, need migrants, as do develop-

ing countries – not only for migrants’ economic contribu-tions, but also for the social and cultural diversity that theybring.

This is not to deny that migration has downsides. Butmigration is here to stay, and it is growing. There can be noreturn to a monoethnic past, so successful societies will needto adapt to diversity.

The likeliest outcome of the debate on the post-2015 glob-al development agenda will be something between the MDG-style approach – concrete, measurable targets for reducingextreme poverty – and the emerging sustainable develop-ment narrative, which emphasizes the complex forces ofinterdependence, such as migration and climate change. Inthe imperfect world of politics, this middle ground would bea positive outcome.

Fortunately, the type of measurable outcomes that theMDGs have thus far demanded are being developed formigration. The overarching goal is to design a roadmap thatcan take us from today’s poorly managed, exploitative systemof human mobility to one that is well managed, protectsmigrant rights, and plans for the consequences and opportu-nities of migration.

The bottom line is that making migration part of theworld’s development strategy will have a meaningful impacton the lives of migrants, affording them greater access torights and to the fruits of their labor. Perhaps even moreimportant, it could change public perceptions of migrants, sothat they are viewed as a blessing rather than a scourge.

Peter Sutherland is the United Nations Secretary General’sSpecial Representative for Migration.

© Project Syndicate, 2013.www.project-syndicate.org

By Robert Langer

By Peter D. Sutherland

EB¢OMA¢IAIA OIKONOMIKH ¶√§π∆π∫∏ EºHMEPI¢A

www.financialmirror.comAÚ. 907 ∆∂∆∞ƒ∆∏, 20 ª∞ƒ∆π√À, 2013

Η Βïυλή των Αντιπρïσώπων καταψήæι-σε ψες τï νïµïσøέδιï για τï κïύρεµα τωνκαταθέσεων. Κατά τάøθηκαν ïι 36 âïυλευ-τές τïυ ΑΚΕΛ, τïυ ∆ΗΚÃ, της Ε∆ΕΚ, τïυΕΥΡΩΚÃ, ï âïυλευτής των ÃικïλÞγων και ïανεêάρτητïς âïυλευτής ·αøαρίας Κïυλίας,ενώ ïι 19 âïυλευτές τïυ ∆ΗΣΥ ψήæισαναπïøή.

Τï ερώτηµα πïυ τίθεται πλέïν είναι τιµας êηµερώνει αύριï πïυ λήγει τï υπïυργι-κÞ διάταγµα (εκτÞς και αν ανανεωθεί) καιανïίγïυν ïι τράπεúες.

Άγνωστï παραµένει ακÞµα τï πώς θαεêευρεθïύν τα 5.8 δις ευρώ για ικανïπïίησητων απαιτήσεων της τρÞικας, λαµâάνïνταςυπÞψη και τïν ÃλλανδÞ πρÞεδρï τïυEurogroup πïυ δήλωσε πως øωρίς απÞæασηη Κύπρïς δεν παίρνει âïήθεια.

ΕρωτηµατικÞ απïτελεί και η αντίδρασητων êένων καταθετών µε την καταψήæισητïυ νïµïσøεδίïυ. Σίγïυρα ïι στιγµές πïυúïύµε και η αγωνία για τï αύριï δεν σηκώ-νïυν κανένα εæησυøασµÞ.

Για την καταψήæιση τïυ νïµïσøεδίïυείøε κάνει λÞγï απÞ νωρίς øθες ï πρÞεδρïςτης Κυπριακής ∆ηµïκρατίας Νίκïς Αναστα-σιάδης. Μιλώντας στη σïυηδική τηλεÞρα-ση, είøε δηλώσει Þτι η Βïυλή, “θα τïπïθετη-θεί αρνητικά, διÞτι θεωρεί και πιστεύει Þτιείναι άδικï και πλήττει τα συµæέρïντα τηςΚύπρïυ γενικÞτερα”.

Σε ερώτηση πώς θα øειριστεί την κατά-σταση, απάντησε Þτι η κυâέρνηση έøει τασøέδιά της, σηµειώνïντας ταυτÞøρïνα Þτιτï “κïύρεµα” δεν ήταν κάτι πïυ αναµέναµεαπÞ την τρÞικα και τïυς æίλïυς, Þπως είπε,στï Eurogroup.

Τï επίµαøï νïµïσøέδιï πρïνïïύσεÞπως, παρά τις διατάêεις ïπïιïυδήπïτεάλλïυ νÞµïυ, κάθε πιστωτικÞ ίδρυµα στηΚυπριακή ∆ηµïκρατία πρïâεί στην είσπρα-êη τέλïυς επί των καταθέσεων ως ακïλïύ-θως: για κάθε ευρώ µέøρι και 20.000 ευρώµε συντελεστή 0,00%, για κάθε ευρώ πάνωαπÞ 20.000 ευρώ µέøρι και 100.000 ευρώ µεσυντελεστή 6,75%, για κάθε ευρώ πάνω απÞ100.000 ευρώ µε συντελεστή 9,90%.

Τï τέλïς θα υπïλïγιúÞταν επί των υπï-λïίπων των καταθέσεων στα âιâλία τωνπιστωτικών ιδρυµάτων στη ∆ηµïκρατία

κατά τï κλείσιµï των εργασιών τïυς τηνΠαρασκευή 15 Μαρτίïυ 2013.

Σύµæωνα µε τï νïµïσøέδιï, έναντι τïυτέλïυς θα διατίθεντï µελλïντικά σε κάθεκαταθέτη, µετïøές πιστωτικïύ ιδρύµατïςστη ∆ηµïκρατία υπÞ Þρïυς πïυ θα καθïρί-úïνταν µε ∆ιάταγµα τïυ ΥπïυργïύÃικïνïµικών.

Επίσης, πρïâλεπÞταν Þτι ïι µετïøές πïυθα παραøωρïύνταν στïυς καταθέτες θαήταν µετατρέψιµες σε ïµÞλïγα, η απÞδïσητων ïπïίων διασæαλιúÞταν απÞ τα πρïσδï-κώµενα έσïδα τïυ æυσικïύ αερίïυ, υπÞ τïνÞρï Þτι ïι καταθέσεις θα παραµείνïυν γιατïυλάøιστï δύï έτη στï πιστωτικÞ ίδρυµαστη ∆ηµïκρατία και σύµæωνα µε σøέδιï πïυθα καθïρίσει και θα εκδώσει ï ΥπïυργÞς.

™‡ÛÎÂ„Ë ¶ÔÏÈÙÈÎÒÓ∞Ú¯ËÁÒÓ

à ΠρÞεδρïς της ∆ηµïκρατίας ΝίκïςΑναστασιάδης πρïκειµένïυ να εêεταστïύνïι εêελίêεις µετά τη øθεσινή συνεδρίασητης Ãλïµέλειας της Βïυλής τωνΑντιπρïσώπων, συγκάλεσε σύσκεψηΠïλιτικών Αρøηγών.

ΣτÞøïς της συνάντησης είναι η εêέτασηυπαλλακτικών σøεδίων για αντιµετώπισητης κατάστασης. à ΠρÞεδρïς της∆ηµïκρατίας Νίκïς Αναστασιάδης έøεισυγκαλέσει σύσκεψη µε τïυς αρøηγïύς τωνπïλιτικών κïµµάτων στις 9 τï πρωί, στïΠρïεδρικÞ Μέγαρï.

™Ô˘‚¿ÏÔÊ: øʤÏÈÌÔ ÙÔ ÎÔ‡ÚÂÌ· ÁÈ· ƒˆÛ›·

Εντύπωση πρïκαλεί πάντως η στάση τηςΜÞσøας. à αντιπρÞεδρïς της ρωσικήςκυâέρνησης Ιγκïρ Σïυâάλïæ, δήλωσε αργάψες πως η ΜÞσøα θα µπïρïύσε, σε τελικήανάλυση, να ωæεληθεί απÞ την επιâïλήενÞς τέλïυς στις τραπεúικές καταθέσειςστην Κύπρï, γιατί κάτι τέτïιï θα έκανε τïεπενδυτικÞ κλίµα στη Ρωσία να µïιάúει πιïσταθερÞ.

“Είναι µια καλή ευκαιρία για τï ρωσικÞτραπεúικÞ σύστηµα να επιδιώêει να âρεινέïυς καταθέτες, νέïυς πελάτες. Και ναδείêει Þτι τï δικÞ µας τραπεúικÞ σύστηµαείναι σταθερÞ”, είπε ï κ. Σïυâάλïæ.

“Για τη Ρωσία, µεσïπρÞθεσµα αυτÞ δρï-µïλïγεί καλές ευκαιρίες. Η Ρωσία θα κερδί-σει περισσÞτερα απ’ Þσα θα øάσει. Για τηΡωσία είναι µια ευκαιρία να δείêει τïυς πιïπρïâλεπÞµενïυς κανÞνες αντιµετώπισηςτων επενδυτών”, πρÞσθεσε.

Ρώσïι αêιωµατïύøïι, συµπεριλαµâανï-µένïυ και τïυ πρïέδρïυ Βλαντίµιρ Πïύτιν,είøαν επικρίνει έντïνα τï σøέδιï επιâïλήςενÞς έκτακτïυ τέλïυς στις τραπεúικέςκαταθέσεις στην Κύπρï, κάτι πïυ θα είøεσïâαρές επιπτώσεις στις ρωσικές εταιρείεςαλλά και τα æυσικά πρÞσωπα πïυ διαθέτïυνλïγαριασµïύς πïλλών δισεκατïµµυρίωνευρώ στις κυπριακές τράπεúες.

Σύµæωνα µε τïν ïίκï αêιïλÞγησης τωνMoody’s, ïι ρωσικές τράπεúες έøïυν κατα-θέσεις ύψïυς 12 δις δïλαρίων στις κυπρια-κές ενώ ïι καταθέσεις εταιρειών έæταναντα 19 δις δïλάρια στα τέλη τïυ 2012.

ª¤ÚÎÂÏ: «MfiÓÔ Ì ∆ÚfiÈη» ¥εκάθαρï ήταν και τï µήνυµα της

Γερµανίδας Καγκελάριïυ Άνγκελας Μέρκελπρïς την κυâέρνηση Νίκïυ Αναστασιάδη. Ãιδιαπραγµατεύσεις για τï σøέδιï διάσωσηςπρέπει να διεêαøθïύν απïκλειστικά και µÞνïµε την ΤρÞικα, æαίνεται να δήλωσε σύµæωναµε εκπρÞσωπï της γερµανικής κυâέρνησης.

™fiÈÌÏÂ: «ÃÚÂÔÎÔ›» ÙÔ Î˘ÚÈ·Îfi ÌÔÓÙ¤ÏÔ

à υπïυργÞς Ãικïνïµικών της ΓερµανίαςΒÞλæγκανγκ ΣÞιµπλε συνέøισε και øθες τιςεµπρηστικές τïυ δηλώσεις αναæέρïνταςÞτι «Þπïιïς τïπïθετεί τα øρήµατά τïυ σεøώρες Þπïυ καταâάλλει λιγÞτερïυς æÞρïυςπρέπει να αναλάâει τις ευθύνες τïυ», σεένα µήνυµα πρïς τïυς εύπïρïυς Ρώσïυςπïυ καλïύνται να συµâάλïυν στη διάσωσητης Κύπρïυ. “Ãπïιïς επενδύει τα øρήµατάτïυ σε øώρες Þπïυ πληρώνει λιγÞτερïυςæÞρïυς, ή Þπïυ ίσως ελέγøεται λιγÞτερï,αναλαµâάνει τïν κίνδυνï, Þταν ïι τράπεúεςτης øώρας αυτής δεν είναι âιώσιµες, είναιπρïæανές», δήλωσε ï γερµανÞς υπïυργÞςÃικïνïµικών στη γερµανική ραδιïæωνία.Αλλά, εάν δεν κληθïύν αυτïί να συµâάλïυν,τÞτε «ïι ευρωπαίïι æïρïλïγïύµενïι θαπρέπει να øρηµατïδïτήσïυν êένες επενδύ-σεις δισεκατïµµυρίων στην Κύπρï ... αυτÞθα ήταν ανεύθυνï», είπε ï ΒÞλæγκανγκΣÞιµπλε πρïσθέτïντας Þτι «τï κυπριακÞïικïνïµικÞ µïντέλï», πïυ âασίúεται σε έναευνïϊκÞ æïρïλïγικÞ σύστηµα τï ïπïίï επίσειρά ετών πρïσέλκυσε êένα κεæάλαια,«øρεïκïπεί».

à ίδιïς øαρακτήρισε την κατάστασηστην Κύπρï ως “Εêαιρετικά σïâαρή” καιεêέæρασε την λύπη τïυ για τïν κυπριακÞλαÞ, τïνίúïντας Þτι τα πρïâλήµατα δηµι-ïυργήθηκαν απÞ ένα απïτυøηµένï ïικïνï-µικÞ µïντέλï δεκαετιών.

¶ÈÓÁÎ - ÔÓÁÎ ·Ó¿ÌÂÛ· Û ÎÔ‡ÚÂÌ· Î·È ¯ÚÂÔÎÔ›·

∞ÓÙÈÚÔÙ¿ÛÂȘ ÛˆÙËÚ›·˜ ·fi ÙȘ ∆Ú¿Â˙˜Ùøι στï κïύρεµα των êένων καταθέσεων

λένε µε µια æωνή τα επιτελεία των κυπριακώντραπεúών. Θεωρïύν Þτι µια τέτïια κίνηση θαείναι καταστρïæική µε άµεσες συνέπειες.

Επισηµαίνïυν Þτι υπïκαταστήµατα διε-θνών τραπεúών πïυ âρίσκïνται στην Κύπρïθα κλείσïυν άµεσα µε απïτέλεσµα τï τέλïςτης Κύπρïυ ως διεθνïύς øρηµατïïικïνïµι-κïύ κέντρïυ, αæïύ εκτιµïύν Þτι θα øαθεί τï50% των καταθέσεων των τραπεúών.

Σύµæωνα µε πληρïæïρίες µας ïι τραπεúί-τες θα υπïâάλïυν υπÞµνηµα µε τις θέσειςτïυς στïν ΠρÞεδρï της ∆ηµïκρατίας στïïπïίï θα αναæέρïυν Þτι η λύση πïυ πρέπεινα âρεθεί για να µαúευτεί τï πïσÞ των 5,8 διςπρέπει να είναι καθαρά κυπριακή.

Στï υπÞµνηµα θα εισηγïύνται αντισταθ-µιστικά ïæέλη στïυς Κύπριïυς καταθέτεςÞπως συµψηæισµÞς µε τα δάνεια τïυς,øαµηλÞτερα επιτÞκια, επιµήκυνση τïυ øρÞ-νïυ απïπληρωµής των δανείων τïυς και

παραøώρηση κρατικών ïµïλÞγων τα ïπïίαθα είναι âασισµένα στις πρïïπτικές τïυæυσικïύ αερίïυ.

Σήµερα ïι τράπεúες θα παραµείνïυν κλει-στές. Θα εργαστïύν µÞνï τα ανώτερα διευ-θυντικά στελέøη και τα µέλη των διïικητικώντïυς συµâïυλίων για να αêιïλïγήσïυν τα νέαδεδïµένα πïυ διαµïρæώνïνται. Την ίδια ώραγινÞταν συνεøής ανατρïæïδÞτηση τωνΑυτÞµατων Ταµειακών Μηøανών λÞγω τηςαυêηµένης πρïσέλευσης καταναλωτών γιααπÞσυρση øρηµάτων.

ΕναλλακτικÞ νïµïσøέδιï για εêυγίανσητης Τράπεúας Κύπρïυ και της ΛαϊκήςΤράπεúας µε τη δηµιïυργία καλής και κακήςτράπεúας ενδέøεται να τεθεί ενώπιïν τïυκïινïâïυλίïυ, σε περίπτωση πïυ απïρρίψειτï πρïτεινÞµενï νïµïσøέδιï για κïύρεµατων καταθέσεων.

Τï νïµïσøέδιï τï ïπïίï επεêεργάστηκεη Κεντρική Τράπεúα µε στÞøï να κατατεθεί

σήµερα για ψήæιση στη Βïυλή πρïνïεί τïδιαøωρισµÞ των ασæαλισµένων καταθέσεωνκαι των καλών στïιøείων ενεργητικïύ τωντραπεúών απÞ τις µη ασæαλισµένες καταθέ-σεις και τα µη εêυπηρετïύµενα δάνεια.Συγκεκριµένα ïι υæιστάµενες τράπεúες θαµετατραπïύν σε κακές τράπεúες και θαµπïυν θα µπïυν στη διαδικασία εκπïίησηςτων στïιøείων ενεργητικïύ για να πληρώ-σïυν τïυς ανασæάλιστïυς καταθέτες σεâάθïς øρÞνïυ τï ïπïίï θα καθïριστεί.

Η Κεντρική Τράπεúα εκτιµά Þτι µε τïσυγκεκριµένï νïµïσøέδιï τα υπïκαταστή-µατα των τραπεúών θα λειτïυργïύν κανïνι-κά και παράλληλα θα πρïστατευθεί ησυντριπτική πλειïψηæία των θέσεων εργα-σίας τïυ πρïσωπικïύ.

Την ίδια ώρα σύµæωνα µε πληρïæïρίεςµελετάται σε πïλιτικÞ επίπεδï σενάριï γιασυγøώνευση των δύï τραπεúών µε τηνΕλληνική Τράπεúα κίνηση πïυ θα διαæïρï-

πïιήσει κατά πïλύ τï τραπεúικÞ øάρτη τηςΚύπρïυ.

Τï νïµïσøέδιï θα πρïâλέπει επίσης τηνπώληση των υπïκαταστηµάτων των τραπε-úών στï εêωτερικÞ ώστε να επιτευøθεί ησυρρίκνωση τïυ τραπεúικïύ τïµέα στα επί-πεδα τïυ µέσïυ Þρïυ της Ευρωúώνης.

Ùσïν αæïρά στï ΣυνεργατισµÞ σύµæω-να µε διασταυρωµένες πληρïæïρίες µαςέøει σταλεί εδώ και λίγες µέρες επιστïλήπρïς τï Υπïυργείï Ãικïνïµικών στην ïπïίαγίνεται εισήγηση Þπως παραµείνει η επï-πτεία τïυς κάτω απÞ την ïµπρέλα τïυΕæÞρïυ Συνεργατικής Ανάπτυêης ως πρω-τïâάθµιïυ επÞπτη και της ΚεντρικήςΤράπεúας ως δευτερïâάθµιïυ. Στην πρÞτα-ση καθïρίúεται µε σαæήνεια τï πλαίσιï τïυεπïπτικïύ ελέγøïυ της Κεντρικής Τράπεúαςη ïπïία θα µπïρεί να παρέµâει και να υπï-δείêει συγøωνεύσεις και άλλες διïρθωτικέςκινήσεις.

¶ÈÓÁÎ - ÔÓÁÎ ·Ó¿ÌÂÛ· Û ÎÔ‡ÚÂÌ· Î·È ¯ÚÂÔÎÔ›·

20 ΜΑΡΤΙÃΥ, 2013 ÌΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓÃΡΑ

2 | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | financialmirror.com

¢¢ÂÂÓÓ ··ÚÚ··ÈÈÙÙÔÔ‡‡ÌÌ··ÈÈ ÏϤ¤ÂÂÈÈ ÔÔ ™™··ÚÚÚÚ‹‹˜Τις æήµες πïυ τïν ήθελαν να παραιτείται διέψευσε ψες,

λίγï µετά την άæιêή τïυ στη ΜÞσøα, ï υπïυργÞς Ãικï-νïµικών της Κύπρïυ Μιøάλης Σαρρής.

à κ. Σαρρής διέψευσε πληρïæïρίες πïυ είøαν νωρίτεραδηµïσιευθεί σε κυπριακά µέσα ενηµέρωσης, σύµæωνα µε ταïπïία, ï ίδιïς είøε υπïâάλει την παραίτησή τïυ πρïς τïνΠρÞεδρï Αναστασιάδη. à YπïυργÞς Ãικïνïµικών âρίσκεταιστη ΜÞσøα πρïκειµένïυ να ενηµερώσει τïν ïµÞλïγÞ τïυΡώσï ΥΠÃΙΚ για τις εêελίêεις στη øώρα µας, ύστερα απÞ τηναπÞæαση τïυ Eurogroup για συµµετïøή των καταθετών στïπρÞγραµµα διάσωσης της Κύπρïυ µε έκτακτη æïρïλÞγηση,αλλά και την καταψήæιση τïυ νïµïσøεδίïυ απÞ τηνΚυπριακή Βïυλή. Η ΜÞσøα έøει εκæράσει δυσαρέσκεια γιατην στάση τïυ κ. Σαρρή έναντι των ρωσικών συµæερÞντων.

Σηµειώνεται Þτι την παραίτηση τïυ υπïυργïύÃικïνïµικών είøε úητήσει øθες ï πρÞεδρïς της επιτρïπήςïικïνïµικών της Βïυλής ΝικÞλας ΠαπαδÞπïυλïς, αλλά καιï αναπληρωτής πρÞεδρïς τïυ Ευρωπαϊκïύ ΚÞµµατïς ΝίκïςΚïυτσïύ.

§›ÛÙ· Ì ÔÓfiÌ·Ù· ˙ËÙ¿ Ë ªfiÛ¯·

Πάντως αναµένεται Þτι ηΡωσία θα úητήσει απÞ τηΛευκωσία, αναλυτικά στïιøεία, ή έναν κατάλïγï µε τα ïνÞ-µατα και τïυς λïγαριασµïύς Ρώσων πïλιτών και επιøειρή-σεων σε κυπριακές τράπεúες. Ùπως ανέæερε ï NικïλάιΠετρÞæ, καθηγητής Ãικïνïµικών, αυτά τα στïιøεία θα ταúητήσει ως πρïαπαιτïύµενα, για να εγκρίνει την επέκτασητïυ δανείïυ πρïς την Κύπρï και την ενδεøÞµενη µείωσηεπιτïκίïυ. à Πïύτιν øρειάúεται τα στïιøεία αυτά, στην πρï-σπάθειά τïυ να æέρει πίσω στη Ρωσία κεæάλαια πïυ τώρα«âγαίνïυν» µέσω offshore εταιρειών εκτÞς øώρας, ενώπαράλληλα τα περισσÞτερα απÞ αυτά «ανήκïυν» σε πρÞσω-πα εκτÞς νÞµïυ, ή τï κυριÞτερï σε επιøειρηµατίες είτε αντι-πάλïυς είτε Þøι «æίλα διακείµενïυς» στïν Πïύτιν.

ººÂ‡‡ÁÁÔÔ˘ÓÓ ÔÔÈÈ ƒƒÒÒÛÛÔÔÈÈ Îη·ÙÙ··ıı¤¤ÙÙ˜,, ıı¤¤ÏÏÔÔ˘ÌÌ ÙÙÔÔ˘˜ ƒƒÒÒÛÛÔÔ˘˜ ÙÙÔÔ˘ÚÚ››ÛÛÙÙ˜

Η απÞæαση κïυρέµατïς καταθέσεων στην Κύπρï απÞ τïΓιïύρïγκρïυπ, έøει πρïκαλέσει έντïνες ανησυøίες στïυςτïυριστικïύς πράκτïρες στην Ρωσία, καθώς και στï ΗνωµένïΒασίλειï, δήλωσε ï ΓενικÞς ∆ιευθυντής τïυ ΚυπριακïύÃργανισµïύ Τïυρισµïύ (ΚÃΤ) Μάριïς Ìαννίδης.

Αντιπρïσωπεία τïυ ΚÃΤ µε επικεæαλής τïν ΠρÞεδρï τïυ∆ιïικητικïύ Συµâïυλίïυ Αλέκï Ãρïυντιώτη και τïν κ. Ìαννίδηâρίσκεται στη ΜÞσøα - Þπïυ θα συµµετάσøει στην καθιερωµέ-νη Εκθεση Τïυρισµïύ της Ρωσίας πïυ αρøίúει σήµερα - αλλάκυρίως για να καθησυøάσει και να διαâεâαιώσει τïυς Ρώσïυςγια την ασæάλεια της Κύπρïυ ως τïυριστικïύ πρïïρισµïύ.

“Ενας απÞ τïυς στÞøïυς µε τïυς ïπïίïυς πηγαίνει η αντι-πρïσωπεία στη Ρωσία - τïυλάøιστïν ï δικÞς µας ï στÞøïς ωςΥπηρεσία - είναι ï καθησυøασµÞς των τïυριστικών πρακτÞ-ρων της Ρωσίας για τις επενδύσεις πïυ έøïυν ήδη κάνει, διÞτιπïλλïί τïυριστικïί πράκτïρες έøïυν επενδύσει εκατïµµύριαευρώ στην Κύπρï, δηλαδή στïν τïµέα επενδύσεων êενïδï-øείων, συντήρηση êενïδïøείων, πρïκαταâïλές για κρατήσειςκ.λπ.», δήλωσε στï ï κ. Ìαννίδης.

ÃπÞτε, συµπλήρωσε, «αντιλαµâάνεστε Þτι αυτά τα δεδï-µένα δηµιïυργïύν ένα κλίµα ανασæάλειας γιατί κανένας δενêέρει τι θα γίνει. Θα µπïρïύν ïι τïυρίστες να έρøïνται; Θαυπάρøïυν τράπεúες και τραπεúικÞ σύστηµα ïυσιαστικά για ναµπïρïύν να τï øρησιµïπïιήσïυν Þταν θα είναι στην Κύπρï;”.

Είναι γεγïνÞς, συνέøισε, Þτι «υπάρøïυν κάπïιες αντιδρά-σεις απïρίας, ρωτïύν τι γίνεται, τι συµâαίνει, τι µέλλει γενέ-

σθαι κ.λπ. και ï λÞγïς πïυ πάµε εκεί είναι για α καθησυøάσïυ-µε αυτές τις αντιδράσεις και ευελπιστïύµε να µην έøïυµεïπïιïδήπïτε πρÞâληµα γιατί αν έøïυµε ακυρώσεις θα είναιανεπανÞρθωτï και τελειωτικÞ πλήγµα για την ïικïνïµία τïυτÞπïυ.

“Πρέπει να δώσïυµε τï µήνυµα στïυς Ρώσïυς τïυριστι-κïύς πράκτïρες και συνεργάτες µας Þτι µπïρïύν να συνεøί-σïυν øωρίς πρÞâληµα τη λειτïυργία τïυς στην Κύπρï”,συµπλήρωσε.

ΑπÞ την πλευρά τïυ, ï ΠρÞεδρïς τïυ ∆Σ τïυ ΚÃΤ ΑλέκïςÃρïυντιώτης, είπε Þτι “πρέπει να είµαστε πïλύ πρïσεκτικïίµε τï τι λέµε ενÞψει Þλων αυτών τα ïπïία συµâαίνïυν καιαυτÞ πïυ µπïρώ να σας διαâεâαιώσω µέøρι σήµερα δεν είøα-µε καµία ακύρωση ïύτε πτήσης ïύτε ακύρωση θέσης απÞïπïιïνδήπïτε είτε απÞ τη Ρωσία είτε απÞ την Αγγλία”.

Αυτή τη στιγµή πïυ µιλïύµε, σηµείωσε, Þλα συνεøίúïυν ναείναι Þπως και πριν.

Εêέæρασε την πεπïίθηση Þτι δεν πρÞκειται να επηρεαστείï τïυρισµÞς σε σηµαντικÞ âαθµÞ λÞγω αυτών των εêελίêεωνπïυ συµâαίνïυν. “ΑυτÞ εννïείται âασικά αν δεν καταρρεύ-σïυν τα πάντα.ΥπÞ κανïνικές συνθήκες εγώ δεν âλέπω ïύτεκαι υπάρøïυν ενδείêεις Þτι έøει επηρεαστεί ï τïυρισµÞς µαςµέøρι σήµερα”, σηµείωσε.

Ãι υπïλïγισµïί Þσïν αæïρά τï τïυριστικÞ ρεύµα στηνΚύπρï είναι Þτι κατά τï 2013, ïι τïυρίστες απÞ την Ρωσία, θαêεπεράσïυν τις 550 øιλιάδες.

Άλλïυς ασæαλείς πρïïρισµïύς για τηνµεταæïρά των καταθέσεων τïυς æαίνεται νααναúητïύν ïι Ρώσïι και άλλïι επενδυτές πïυµέøρι τώρα είøαν τις καταθέσεις τïυς στηνøώρα µας. Στï παιøνίδι µπαίνïυν η Μάλτα καιη Λετïνία.

Πρίν ακÞµα τεθεί τï θέµα τïυ κïυρέµα-τïς και λÞγω της ïικïνïµικής κρίσης ïιΛετïνικές τράπεúες είδαν τις êένες καταθέ-σεις τïυς να æτάνïυν σε επίπεδα ρεκÞρ.

Με âάση στïιøεία µÞνï τï 2012 εισέρευ-σαν στην Λετïνία περίπïυ 2 δις êένων κατα-θέσεων. Ãι λïγαριασµïί στη Λετïνία, απïτε-λïύν έναν τραπεúικÞ κÞµâï απÞ την επïøήτης Σïâιετικής Ένωσης, και æïυσκώνïυν, τηνώρα πïυ, η Κύπρïς ψάøνει για σωσίâιï ïικï-

νïµικής σωτηρίας.Η Λετïνία âγήκε απÞ ένα πρÞγραµµα διά-

σωσης τïυ ∆ΝΤ και ήταν η ταøύτερα ανα-πτυσσÞµενη ïικïνïµία της ΕΕ κατά τï δεύτε-ρï τρίµηνï τïυ 2012, Þταν τï ΑκαθάριστïΕγøώριï ΠρïϊÞν της ανέâηκε 5,1% απÞ τïπρïηγïύµενï έτïς. Τα ασæάλιστρα κινδύνïυτης έøïυν πέσει κατά 137 µïνάδες âάσης τï2012 στις 228 µïνάδες âάσης.

Στï παιøνίδι æαίνεται να µπαίνïυν και ταΚατεøÞµενα. Ìθες ï λεγÞµενïς πρÞεδρïςτης «ένωσης τραπεúών âÞρειας Κύπρïυ»Yunus Rahmioglu δήλωσε Þτι πρïειδïπïίησεÞλες τις τράπεúες στα κατεøÞµενα για πιθανήρïή καταθέσεων στï ψευδïκράτïς απÞ τηνΚυπριακή ∆ηµïκρατία και Þτι øρήµατα πïυ

δεν έøïυν συγκεκριµένη πρïέλευση δεν θαπρέπει να γίνïνται δεκτά.

Είπε επίσης Þτι αναµένïυν ρïή καταθέ-σεων απÞ êένïυς καταθέτες για αυτÞ καιπρέπει να επιδεøθεί πρïσïøή για να µηνυπάρêει êέπλυµα âρώµικïυ øρήµατïς.

¢ÈÂΉÈΛ ÌÂÚ›‰ÈÔ Î·È Ë √˘ÎÚ·Ó›·

Ìθες ï ÃυκρανÞς πρωθυπïυργÞς ΑúάρïæαπευθυνÞµενïς στïυς Ãυκρανïύς εκατïµ-µυριïύøïυς ανέæερε Þτι είναι πιï ασæαλές ναέøïυν τα øρήµατα τïυς στην øώρα τïυς. ÃæÞρïς επί των τραπεúικών καταθέσεων στην

Κύπρï δείøνει Þτι είναι «πιï ασæαλές» να δια-τηρεί ï κÞσµïς τα øρήµατά τïυ στηνÃυκρανία, δήλωσε ï ÃυκρανÞς πρωθυπïυρ-γÞς Μίκïλα Αúάρïæ.

Συνεøίúïντας σε πιï σïâαρÞ τÞνï, ïΑúάρïæ σηµείωσε Þτι ïι επιøειρηµατίες θα«αναλïγίúïνται εæεêής πïλύ πρïσεκτικά τιςαµæιâïλίες τïυς Þσïν αæïρά την αêιïπιστία»τïυ τραπεúικïύ συστήµατïς.

«Εµείς έøïυµε δείêει κατά τη διάρκειααυτών των τριών ετών (στην εêïυσία) Þτι δενλαµâάνïυµε µέτρα κατάσøεσης» υπïγράµµι-σε. Πïλλïί Ãυκρανïί επιøειρηµατίες έøïυνκαταøωρηµένη έδρα των επιøειρήσεώντïυς στην Κύπρï και τα κεæάλαιά τïυςεπαναπατρίúïνται για να øρησιµïπïιηθïύν.

∫∞∆∞£∂™∂π™ ∫∞∆∞£∂™∂π™ ™ÙÔ ·È¯Ó›‰È ª¿ÏÙ·, §ÂÙÔÓ›· Î·È Ù· ∫·Ù¯fiÌÂÓ·

€1 ÂÎ. ÛÙ¤ÏÓÂÈ ÛÙȘ ‚¿ÛÂȘ ÙÔ §ÔÓ‰›ÓÔ

ΒρετανικÞ στρατιωτικÞ αερïσκάæïς πïυ µεταæέρει 1εκατïµµύριï ευρώ έæθασε στην Κύπρï στï πλαίσιï σøεδί-ïυ αντιµετώπισης πιθανών αναγκών πïυ θα ανακύψïυν γιατïυς Βρετανïύς στρατιώτες στï νησί.

Τï υπïυργείï Άµυνας στï Λïνδίνï δηλώνει Þτι τα øρή-µατα θα øρησιµïπïιηθïύν για την παρïøή εκτάκτων δανεί-ων σε στρατιώτες και τις ïικïγένειές τïυς σε περίπτωσηπïυ σταµατήσïυν να λειτïυργïύν ïι αυτÞµατες ταµειακέςµηøανές ή/και ïι øρεωστικές κάρτες.

ŒÚ¢ӷ ÁÈ· ÙËÓ ·fiÛ˘ÚÛË Î·Ù·ı¤ÛˆÓ

Στην καταγγελία Þτι συνεργάτες τïυ Πρïέδρïυ τηςΚυπριακής ∆ηµïκρατίας Νίκïυ Αναστασιάδη και ïικïνïµι-κïί παράγïντες της øώρας ήêεραν για τï «κïύρεµα» καιαπέσυραν έγκαιρα τις καταθέσεις τïυς, πρïøώρησε øθες ηεæηµερίδα «Φιλελεύθερïς».

Σύµæωνα µε την εæηµερίδα, δίνïυν και παίρνïυν ïιπληρïæïρίες πïυ æέρïυν συνεργάτες τïυ Ν.Αναστασιάδηνα έøïυν απïσύρει τις τελευταίες δύï εâδïµάδες τερά-στια πïσά απÞ κυπριακές τράπεúες και να τα έøïυν µετα-æέρει στï εêωτερικÞ. «Αυτïί ïι άνθρωπïι γνώριúαν Þτι âρι-σκÞταν στï τραπέúι τï επικείµενï “κïύρεµα” στις καταθέ-σεις και Þτι ïι Γερµανïί θα πίεúαν πρïς αυτή την κατεύθυν-ση και Þτι υπήρøε ένα πïλύ σïâαρÞ ενδεøÞµενï να περά-σει τï “κïύρεµα”» αναæέρεται στï σøετικÞ δηµïσίευµα.

Μάλιστα, καλεί τïν ΠρÞεδρï της Κυπριακής∆ηµïκρατίας να úητήσει πληρïæÞρηση απÞ τïν ∆ιïικητήτης Κεντρικής Τράπεúας για τï πïιïι είναι εκείνïι πïυέâγαλαν øρήµατα στï εêωτερικÞ τï τελευταίï διάστηµα,τÞσï για να διαπιστωθεί τï âάσιµï των πληρïæïριών, Þσïκαι για να ενηµερωθεί ï κÞσµïς.

Τη δηµïσίευση ενÞς καταλÞγïυ επωνύµων καταθετών,ïι ïπïίïι απέσυραν καταθέσεις απÞ την Κύπρï, εισηγήθη-καν Þλα τα κÞµµατα øθες κατά την έκτακτη συνεδρία τηςΒïυλής. à αναπληρωτής ΠρÞεδρïς τïυ ∆ηµïκρατικïύΣυναγερµïύ Αâέρωæ Νεïæύτïυ úήτησε τη δηµïσίευσητης λίστας πρïκειµένïυ να απïκατασταθεί τï περί δικαίïυαίσθηµα τïυ λαïύ.

∫∫ÔÔ‡‡ÚÚÂÂÌÌ·· ÛÛÙÙÔÔ ÁÁÂÂÓÓÈÈÎÎfifi ‰‰Â››ÎÎÙÙËË ÙÙÔÔ˘ ÃÃ..∞∞..]Τï κυπριακÞ θρίλερ και ïι ραγδαίες εêελίêεις σøετικά µε

τï úήτηµα «κïυρέµατïς» των καταθέσεων στις τράπεúες τηςøώρας, υπïøρέωσαν øθες σε âαριές απώλειες τï ταµπλÞ τïυÌρηµατιστηρίïυ της Αθήνας.

Στï ταµπλÞ ï ΓενικÞς ∆είκτης έκλεισε µε απώλειες 3,85%στις 923,43 µïνάδες, ενώ για τïν δείκτη των τραπεúών ïι απώ-λειες διαµïρæώθηκαν σε 9,69% στις 122,85 µïνάδες.

Μετά την τριήµερη διακïπή των συναλλαγών, λÞγω τηςΚαθαράς ∆ευτέρας, και παρά τη σøετικά «ψύøραιµη» øθεσινήυπïδïøή της απÞæασης τïυ Eurogroup εκ µέρïυς των øρηµα-τιστηρίων τïυ εêωτερικïύ, ï ΓενικÞς ∆είκτης τïυ Ì.Α. δεν

κατάæερε να απïæύγει τις έντïνες πιέσεις. Κινïύµενïς σεαρνητικÞ έδαæïς σε Þλη τη διάρκεια της συνεδρίασης, έæτα-σε να υπïøωρεί έως και 4,13% στις 920,74 µïνάδες για νασηµειώσει τελικά τï δεύτερï øαµηλÞτερï κλείσιµï εντÞς τïυ2013. ΜÞνιµα πτωτικά κινήθηκε και ï δείκτης των τραπεúών,πïυ ïλïκλήρωσε στï øαµηλÞ ηµέρας, µε τις µετïøές των Τρ.Κύπρïυ και Cyprus PB να âρίσκïνται σε αναστïλή διαπραγµά-τευσης (τï ίδιï θα ισøύσει και για την σηµερινή συνεδρίαση).

Τï κλίµα των αµέσως επÞµενων συνεδριάσεων στï Ì.Α.αναµένεται να διαµïρæωθεί µε άêïνα τις εêελίêεις στηνΚύπρï.

Τα ïικïνïµικά δεδïµένα και εκείνα της αγïράς ακινή-των είναι øιλιïειπωµένα και αυτÞ æαίνεται και απÞ τις µει-ωµένες πωλήσεις των ακινήτων.

Είναι πρÞδηλï Þτι ïι της πρώτης γραµµής ασøïλïύµενïι µετα ακίνητα (ïι κτηµατïµεσίτες) έøïυν υπïστεί µια σøεδÞνπανωλεθρία στïν κύκλï εργασιών τïυς, πïυ κυµαίνεται απÞµείωση της τάêης τïυ 40% και µέøρι 60%, τÞσï στïν τïµέα τωνπωλήσεων, Þσï και στην δεύτερη κατηγïρία επαγγελµατιών,εκείνη των εκτιµητών.

Μετά ακïλïυθïύν ïι τεøνικïί (αρøιτέκτïνες, πïλιτικïίµηøανικïί κλπ) µε παρÞµïια πïσïστά µείωσης, αν και ïι τελευ-ταίïι ίσως ακÞµη να νïιώσïυν την πίεση σε µεγάλï âαθµÞ,λÞγω της ύπαρêης κατασκευαστικών έργων τïυ παρελθÞντïςπïυ ακÞµη ανεγείρïνται (περιλαµâανïµένων και Κυâερνητικώνέργων πïυ τώρα σταµάτησαν). ΠαρÞλï τïύτïυ ένα απÞ ταµεγαλύτερα αρøιτεκτïνικά γραæεία της Κύπρïυ έøει απïλύσειεæέτïς 21 άτïµα και ίσως να ακïλïυθήσïυν και άλλα, ενώ ïι

κτηµατïµεσίτες έøïυν µειωθεί τïυλάøιστïν κατά 50% σεανθρώπινï δυναµικÞ και ïι εκτιµητές γύρω στï 30%.

Υπάρøïυν διάæïρες απÞψεις πώς να êεπεράσïυµε αυτήτην κρίση και µελετώντας διάæïρες αναæïρές τïυ εêωτερικïύµε παρÞµïια δεδïµένα σας αναæέρïυµε τα ακÞλïυθα.- ∆εν συµâαίνει τίπïτε

Ψυøïλïγικά καλή πρïσέγγιση µεν αλλά η επιθυµία τïυ ιδιï-κτήτη να διατηρήσει την επιøείρηση τïυ ως έøει, θα τïν ïδηγή-σει σε øρεïκïπία σε τακτÞ øρïνικÞ ïρίúïντα. Η ψυøïλïγία σεαυτÞ τï στάδιï έøει τεράστιï ρÞλï διÞτι ïι πλείστες επιøειρή-σεις αυτïύ τïυ είδïυς είναι ïικïγενειακές ή πρïσωπικές καιυπάρøει και τï «εγώ», τï ïπïίï σε µικρές κïινωνίες είναι σηµα-ντικÞ αρνητικÞ στïιøείï.- Συµâίωση µε άλλïυς

∆ηλαδή η συνένωση γραæείων σε ένα πιï ευρύ κύκλï εργα-σιών µε µειωµένα κÞστη και ίσως καλύτερη ïργάνωση.∆ύσκïλï Þµως να τï πετύøïυµε αυτÞ, διÞτι ï κάθε ένας «θέλειτï δικÞ τïυ». ΑυτÞ είναι ιδιαίτερα πρïσεκτÞ στην Κύπρï, διÞτιεκτÞς απÞ ïρισµένα δικηγïρικά και ελεγκτικά γραæεία, ïι υπÞ-λïιπïι επαγγελµατίες δεν ενδιαæέρïνται εάν έøïυν ήδη τïδικÞ τïυς γραæείï. Παραδείγµατα πάµπïλα µε αρøιτέκτïνεςπïυ κατέληêαν µετά απÞ ïρισµένα øρÞνια σε øωρισµÞ.- Μείωση ΚÞστων

Η τρίτη επιλïγή είναι η µείωση κÞστïυς είτε µε απïλύσειςείτε και µε µείωση µισθών των εργαúïµένων γύρω στï 20%.Μια κατάσταση Þøι ευøάριστη, διÞτι ïι µεν εργαúÞµενïι ανα-γνωρίúïντας την κατάσταση δεν είναι ασæαλώς ευτυøείς καιαπÞ την άλλη τï ίδιï πïλυάριθµï πρï της κρίσης πρïσωπικÞπαραµένει.- Αναδιïργάνωση

Άπτεται κυρίως στην θεωρία αλλά στην εæαρµïγή είναιάλλï θέµα. Η εργατική νïµïθεσία δυστυøώς δεν επιτρέπει απï-λύσεις και πρïσλήψεις ίσως νέων πιï καταρτισµένων, µε απï-τέλεσµα η αναδιïργάνωση να µην είναι εæικτή στην πράêη.Αναδιïργάνωση σηµαίνει αλλαγή νïïτρïπίας και øαµηλάκÞστη, πιï øαµηλά δικαιώµατα και πιï πïλλές ώρες εργασίας.Πως θα επιτευøθεί αυτÞ διερωτώµεθα στην Κυπριακή νïïτρï-πία/νïµïθεσία;- Άνεργïι και Νέïι

Ùπως είναι η δική µας νïïτρïπία Þπïυ ï κάθε ένας θέλεινα κάνει την δική τïυ δïυλειά, διÞτι έøει Ì æίλïυς και Ψ συνερ-

γάτες πïυ θα τïν âïηθήσïυν, εργαúÞµενïς ίσως απÞ τï σπίτιτïυς µε την âïήθεια της συúύγïυ/êαδέλæης κλπ.Αυτïί ïι άνερ-γïι ντÞπιïι πρïκαλïύν µεν µε τα øαµηλά τïυς κÞστη σε επίπε-δα πïυ δεν συµæέρïυν στα ïργανωµένα γραæεία, µε απïτέλε-σµα και αυτïί να πρïκαλïύν úηµιά και περαιτέρω ανεργία. ΑπÞτην άλλη ïι συνήθως άπειρïι αυτïί ïι νέï-εισερøÞµενïι σε έναεπάγγελµα ίσως να συσσωρεύïυν πρïâλήµατα για τïυς εαυ-τïύς τïυς στï µέλλïν – αλλά έøïυν επιλïγή;- Εκµετάλλευση(;)

Σε αυτÞν τïν κυκεώνα αυτής της κατάστασης είναι λïγικÞτα διάæïρα τεøνικά Γραæεία, πωλητές και άλλïι να επιδιώκïυνµια µείωση της øρέωσης. ΘεµιτÞ µεν αλλά υπάρøïυν και παρεµ-æερή κÞλπα π.ø. µη πληρωµή Φ.Π.Α., δικαιώµατα κάτω τïυκÞστïυς και άρα επικινδυνÞτητα για τïν τεøνικÞ µια και πïυ θακάνει µια δïυλειά µε úηµιά τïυ.- Περιστασιακïί Υπάλληλïι

Έγινε ïλίγïν της µÞδας ένα κτηµατïµεσιτικÞ γραæείï ναεργïδïτεί άνεργïυς ως περιστασιακïύς υπαλλήλïυς, øωρίςµισθÞ, µε κανένα ωæέληµα, εκτÞς απÞ πρïµήθεια/ή αµïιâή µετï κïµµάτι. ΓνωστÞ κτηµατïµεσιτικÞ γραæείï έøει «λέγει» 12υπαλλήλïυς για ενïικιάσεις και άλλïυς 18 για πωλήσεις, αλλάµε µια εναλλαêιµÞτητα των υπαλλήλων 30% τïν øρÞνï. Άρα τιπïιÞτητα υπάρøει Þταν ï Ì υπάλληλïς είναι πρïσωρινÞς,σύντïµα καταρτισµένïς και µε δικÞ τïυ στÞøï να ψάøνει συνε-øώς για κάτι άλλï;- H θέση τïυ ΕΤΕΚ

Έøïυµε λïιπÞν στï τέλïς της ηµέρας και τï ΕΤΕΚ να µαςγράæει Þτι τα δικαιώµατα θα πρέπει να είναι «αêιïπρεπή» και ναµην είναι øαµηλά. Τι λάθïς είναι και αυτÞ, διÞτι αντιτίθεται µετην επιτρïπή ανταγωνισµïύ και την ελεύθερη αγïρά. Ναι µενέøει δίκαιï τï ΕΤΕΚ, αλλά âιώνει τις άσøηµες συνθήκες τηςαγïράς τïυ ελεύθερïυ επαγγελµατία;

Τï θέµα είναι τεράστιï και επαγγελµατικÞ αλλά και ιδιαίτε-ρα ανθρώπινï. Μας úητήθηκε τέλïς για να κάνïυµε µια εκτίµη-ση ρïυτίνας για µια κατïικία και úητήσαµε 150 ευρώ – η απάντη-ση τïυ πελάτη ήταν Þτι «κάπïιïι άλλïι µïυ είπαν 30 ευρώ!!».∆υστυøώς είναι κύκλïς Þλï τï θέµα και τï ένα αρνητικÞ æέρ-νει τï άλλï, ενώ σε άλλï δικÞ µας παράδειγµα είναι Þτι «γιατίúητάτε 3% πρïµήθεια αæïύ ïι άλλïι µïυ είπαν 1%;».

Τι να σας πïύµε αγαπητïί µας αναγνώστες Þταν υπάρøειτέτïια δυστυøία σε αυτÞν τïν τÞπï;

∞∞ÓÓÙÙÒÒÓÓˢ §§ÔÔ˚˙ÔÔ˘∞ÓÙÒÓ˘ §Ô›˙Ô˘ F.R.I.C.S. & ™˘ÓÂÚÁ¿Ù˜ §Ù‰, ∂ÎÙÈÌËÙ¤˜ ∞ÎÈÓ‹ÙˆÓ & ¢È·¯ÂÈÚÈÛÙ¤˜ ŒÚÁˆÓ ∞Ó¿Ù˘Í˘

√È ∫ÙËÌ·ÙÔÌÂÛ›Ù˜, ÔÈ ¿ÏÏÔÈ Î·È ÔÈ ‰˘ÛÎÔϛ˜

20 ΜΑΡΤΙÃΥ, 2013

financialmirror.com | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | 3

ÌΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓÃΡΑ

™™ÙÙÔÔ Î΢ÓÓ‹‹ÁÁÈÈ ÛÛ˘ÓÓÂÂÙÙ··››ÚÚˆÓÓ ÁÁÈÈ·· ÙÙÔÔ √√ÈÈÎÎfifi‰‰ÔÔ 1122Εισήγηση πρïς την κυâέρνηση να κινηθεί άµεσα στην

εêεύρεση συνεταίρων για τï ÃικÞπεδï 12 αναµενÞταν να υπï-âάλει η Κρατική Εταιρεία Υδρïγïναθράκων µε στÞøï να εισ-ρεύσïυν άµεσα δις ευρώ στα κρατικά ταµεία και να γίνει έτσιευκïλÞτερη η συνïµïλÞγηση τïυ κυπριακïύ µνηµïνίïυ, είøεδηλώσει ï ΕκτελεστικÞς ΑντιπρÞεδρïς της ΚΡΕΤΥΚ ΣÞλωνΚασίνης, πρίν æυσικά µας πρïλάâïυν ïι εêελίêεις για τï κïύ-ρεµα. «Μπïρείς να θέλεις να âάλεις ένα συνέταιρï αντί ναπρïπωλήσεις γιατί δεν είσαι σίγïυρïς σήµερα τι έøεις τï ïπïίïµπïρεί να αυêηθεί στï άµεσï µέλλïν. Καλύτερα αν πρέπεισυνεταιριστείς µε κάπïιï να τïυ δώσεις ένα µερίδιï απÞ τï

δικÞ σïυ πïσïστÞ Þπως έκανε και η Noble στïυς Ισραηλινïύςγια να µπïρείς να έøεις άµεσα κάπïια øρήµατα. Αν θέλïυµε ναπωλήσïυµε εµείς ένα µερίδιï απÞ τï 70% µπïρïύµε να τïκάνïυµε. ΑυτÞ µπïρεί να γίνει και άµεσα», είøε αναæέρει ï κ.Κασίνης. Ã αµερικανικÞς κïλïσσÞς επιâεâαίωσε πάντως Þτι ηεπιâεâαιωτική γεώτρηση στï ÃικÞπεδï 12 θα αρøίσει εντÞςΙïυνίïυ και θα επιæέρει άµεσα ïæέλη για την κυπριακή ïικïνï-µία. «Με αυτές τις γεωτρήσεις πïυ µÞλις µιλïύσαµε θα έøïυνένα Þæελïς 20-30% στïν τÞπï. ∆ηλαδή αν κάνïυµε τïν Ιïύνηµια γεώτρηση πïυ θα κïστίσει 100 εκ. τα 20-30 εκ. θα καταλή-êïυν στïν τÞπï. Η γεώτρηση θέλïυµε 3-4 µήνες να την κάνïυ-

µε, 5-6 µήνες αν την αêιïλïγήσïυµε άρα µιλïύµε για άλλï έναøρÞνï». Ã ΣÞλων Κασίνης ανέæερε Þτι η διïίκηση της Νïbleθα υπïâάλει στï Υπïυργείï Γεωργίας τα σøέδια της για θέµα-τα περιâάλλïντïς, ασæάλειας και υγείας και πρÞσθεσε Þτιπαραµένει ανïικτÞ τï ενδεøÞµενï και για τρίτη επιâεâαιωτικήγεώτρηση κυρίως λÞγω τïυ Þτι υπάρøïυν σïâαρές ενδείêειςκαι για δεύτερï κïίτασµα æυσικïύ αερίïυ στï ÃικÞπεδï 12.

∫∫··ÙÙ··ÁÁÁÁÂÂÏÏ››Â˜ ··fifi ÙÙÔÔ ÚÚÔÔÛÛˆÈÈÎÎfifi ÙÙˢ ∞∞ÚÚ¯‹‹˜ §§ÈÈÌ̤¤ÓÓˆÓÓΣε ενυπÞγραæη καταγγελία πρïς τη Γενική Ελέγκτρια

Ìρυστάλλα Γιωρκάτúη αναæïρικά µε την απÞæαση της ΑρøήςΛιµένων να παραøωρήσει σε τρίτïυς την πλïήγηση αλλά καιτη ρυµïύλκηση πλïίων πïυ θα εêυπηρετïύνται απÞ τις εγκα-ταστάσεις της VTTV στï ΒασιλικÞ, πρïøώρησε η ΣυντεøνίαΥπαλλήλων της Αρøής Λιµένων Κύπρïυ (ΣΥΑΛΚ). Στην καταγ-γελία τïνίúεται Þτι η µελέτη για την ανάθεση σε ιδιώτες τηςρυµïύλκησης και πλïήγησης, περιείøε έκδηλα λανθασµένακαι παραπλανητικά στïιøεία, πρïσθέτïντας Þτι η εταιρείαστην ïπïία ανατέθηκε τελικά η δραστηριÞτητα δεν είναιθυγατρική της VTTV αλλά εταιρεία η ïπïία δηµιïυργήθηκεεπί σκïπïύ.

Πρïσθέτει µάλιστα Þτι ïι διευθυντές και ïι µέτïøïι αυτήςτης εταιρείας είναι τα ίδια άτïµα τα ïπïία έτυøαν παρÞµïιαςπαραøώρησης δικαιωµάτων τα ïπïία διέθεσαν σε τρίτïυς µε

αντάλλαγµα δεκάδες εκατïµµύρια ευρώ. Η ΣΥΑΛΚ αναæέρειακÞµη η Αρøή Λιµένων δεν πρïέâη στη διαδικασία úήτησηςπρïσæïρών, µέσω των ïπïίων θα καθïρίúïνταν ïι Þρïι και ïιυπïøρεώσεις των πρïσæïρïδïτών για µια άδεια πïυ τïυςπαραøωρήθηκε για περίïδï 28 ετών. ΑυτÞ είøε ως απïτέλε-σµα σύµæωνα πάντα µε τη ΣΥΑΛΚ την απώλεια εισïδηµάτων12,8 εκ. ευρώ για την Αρøή Λιµένων και κατ’ επέκταση για τïκράτïς, ενώ πρïειδïπïιïύν Þτι ελλïøεύει κίνδυνïς η ΑρøήΛιµένων σε σύντïµα øρïνικÞ διάστηµα να απïλέσει γενικάλιµενικά τέλη της τάêης των 35 εκ. ευρώ.

Καταλήγïντας η ΣΥΑΛΚ τïνίúει Þτι κίνητρï της σε αυτήτην καταγγελία, είναι η διαæύλαêη των συµæερÞντων τηςΑρøής Λιµένων Κύπρïυ, µε την ελπίδα Þτι θα µπïρέσει νασυνεøίσει να συνδράµει ïυσιαστικά στην πρïσπάθεια ανασυ-γκρÞτησης τïυ Κράτïυς.

∆∆ÈÈ ÚÚÔÔÙÙ››ÓÓÂÂÈÈ ËË ∆∆ÚÚfifiÈÈÎη· ÁÁÈÈ·· ÙÙÔÔ ƒƒππ∫∫Σαρωτικές αλλαγές πρïτείνει τï κλιµάκιï της ΤρÞικα για

εæαρµïγή στï ΡΙΚ σύµæωνα µε απïκλειστικές πληρïæïρίεςτης εæηµερίδας µας. Συγκεκριµένα η ΤρÞικα τÞνισε Þτι θαπρέπει να δïθεί η δυνατÞτητα πρÞωρης αæυπηρέτησης σεÞσïυς εργαúÞµενïυς έøïυν συµπληρώσει τï 55ï έτïς της ηλι-κίας τïυς και παράλληλï τερµατισµÞ Þλων των αγïρών υπη-ρεσιών απÞ εêωτερικïύς συνεργάτες.

Η ΤρÞικα σύµæωνα πάντα µε τις πληρïæïρίες µας úήτησεεπίσηµα να της δïθεί κατάλïγïς για τï καθεστώς εργασίας

των απασøïλïύµενων στï ΡΙΚ αλλά και να την δïθïύν στïι-øεία Þσïν αæïρά τï κατά πÞσïν ïι εργαúÞµενïι µπήκαν απÞτην κύρια πÞρτα δηλαδή µέσω εêετάσεως απÞρρïια της πρï-κήρυêης θέσεων ή απÞ την πίσω πÞρτα για εêυπηρέτησηκυρίως κïµµατικών συµæερÞντων.Τέλïς úητήθηκε ï τερµατι-σµÞς της λειτïυργίας ενÞς εκ των τεσσάρων ραδιïæωνικώνσταθµών τïυ ΡΙΚ και ήδη Þπως πληρïæïρïύµαστε τρïøιïδρï-µείται συγøώνευση τïυ Πρώτïυ Πρïγράµµατïς µε τï ΤρίτïΠρÞγραµµα.

Κλειστές θα παραµείνïυν και σήµερα ïιτράπεúες, κατÞπιν σøετικïύ διατάγµατïςπïυ εêέδωσε την ∆ευτέρα ï ΥπïυργÞςÃικïνïµικών Μιøάλης Σαρρής, διάταγµα τïïπïίï κράτησε κλειστές τις τράπεúες καιøθες Τρίτη. Η απÞæαση για να παραµείνïυν

κλειστές ïι τράπεúες κατά τï διήµερï αυτÞλήæθηκε λÞγω της αâεâαιÞτητας πïυ έøειδηµιïυργηθεί µέøρι την ψήæιση ή καταψή-æιση απÞ τη Βïυλή τïυ νïµïσøεδίïυ, γιαεπιâïλή τέλïυς σταθερÞτητας στις καταθέ-σεις. Στη σøετική ανακïίνωση πïυ εêέδωσεη Κεντρική Τράπεúα της Κύπρïυ, «πληρïæï-ρεί τï κïινÞ Þτι ïι τράπεúες θα είναι κλει-στές την Τρίτη και Τετάρτη, 19 και 20Μαρτίïυ 2013 αντίστïιøα, λÞγω τραπεúικήςαργίας». Πάντως, ïι αυτÞµατες ταµειακέςµηøανές 24ωρης εêυπηρέτησης λειτïυρ-γïύν κανïνικά και µπïρïύν να εêυπηρετή-σïυν τï κïινÞ, δηλώνει η Κεντρική ΤράπεúαΚύπρïυ.

Αν και πïλίτες δήλωναν Þτι δεν µπï-ρïύν να εêυπηρετηθïύν απÞ τις αυτÞµατεςταµειακές µηøανές, η ΕκπρÞσωπïς της ΚΤΚ,Αλίκη Στυλιανïύ, δήλωσε πως ïι ΑΤΜ ανα-τρïæïδïτïύνται συνεøώς έτσι ώστε να µηνυπάρøïυν πρïâλήµατα.

Εêηγώντας Þτι υπήρêε κάπïια καθυστέ-ρηση στην ανατρïæïδÞτησή τïυς λÞγω τïυΣαââατïκύριακïυ, η κ. Στυλιανïύ êεκαθάρι-σε Þτι ïι ΑΤΜ έøïυν ανατρïæïδïτηθεί.Ùπως έγινε γνωστÞ, εêάλλïυ, η ΚεντρικήΤράπεúα της Κύπρïυ έøει εêασæαλίσει ρευ-

στÞτητα πέραν των 5 δις ευρώ, η ïπïία θαâρίσκεται στη διάθεση τïυ τραπεúικïύσυστήµατïς της Κύπρïυ, ώστε να διαæυλα-øθεί η σταθερÞτητα τïυ øρηµατïïικïνïµι-κïύ συστήµατïς.

Ã∞∫ ΚλειστÞ είναι σήµερα και τï

Ìρηµατιστήριï Αêιών Κύπρïυ, µετά απÞαπÞæαση τïυ Πρïέδρïυ τïυ ∆ιïικητικïύΣυµâïυλίïυ και τïυ Γενικïύ ∆ιευθυντή τηςκυπριακής Κεæαλαιαγïράς. ΛÞγω των εêελί-êεων τï ÌΑΚ παρέµεινε κλειστÞ και øθεςΤρίτη 19 Μαρτίïυ.

Τï συµâïύλιï τïυ ÌΑΚ απïæάσισε τηναναστïλή της διαπραγµάτευσης των κινη-τών αêιών πïυ είναι εισηγµένες στïÌρηµατιστήριï, για σκïπïύς διασæάλισηςτης καλής λειτïυργίας της αγïράς τïυÌρηµατιστηρίïυ και για πρïστασία τωνεπενδυτών.

Η απÞæαση στηρίúεται σε τρεις λÞγïυς.ΕνÞψει τïυ γεγïνÞτïς της µη λειτïυργίαςτων τραπεúών (Τραπεúική Αργία, τηςΚαθαράς ∆ευτέρας), Þπïυ δεν µπïρεί ναπραγµατïπïιηθεί η εκκαθάριση και ï διακα-

νïνισµÞς των øρηµατιστηριακών συναλλα-γών πïυ καταρτίστηκαν στï ÌΑΚ.

Επίσης ενÞψει της απÞæασης για µη λει-τïυργία των τραπεúών δεν θα είναι εæικτή ηδιεκπεραίωση τïυ διακανïνισµïύ των øρη-µατιστηριακών συναλλαγών πïυ καταρτίúï-νται στï ÌΑΚ και συνεπώς τï ÌΑΚ δεν θαπρïâεί σε άνïιγµα της ηµερήσιας διαδικα-σίας τïυ Target 2.

Γίνεται επίκληση επίσης “των τρεøïυ-σών πïλύ σïâαρών εêελίêεων στην κυπρια-κή ïικïνïµία σøετικά µε τις πρÞσæατεςαπïæάσεις τïυ Eurogroup πïυ αæïρïύνστïν τραπεúικÞ τïµέα της Κύπρïυ και στηνïικïνïµία ευρύτερα πïυ επηρεάúïυν τïυςτραπεúικïύς ïργανισµïύς των ïπïίων ïιαêίες τïυς είναι εισηγµένες στïÌρηµατιστήριï”.

Τέλïς, σηµειώνεται Þτι η απÞæαση γιακλείσιµï της Ìρηµαταγïράς λήæθηκε “γιααπïæυγή δηµιïυργίας ïπïιïυδήπïτε ενδε-øïµένïυ επιπρÞσθετïυ κινδύνïυ στï Þλïσύστηµα, εæÞσïν τï Ìρηµατιστήριï, ενÞψειτης τραπεúικής αργίας δεν θα είναι σε θέσηνα ελέγøει τα πιστωτικά Þρια των Μελώνκατά τη διάρκεια της øρηµατιστηριακήςσυνάντησης”.

ƒÒÛÈÎË ÚÔ˘Ï¤Ù· Ρώσικη ρïυλέτα, λέγεται ένα άκρως επι-

κίνδυνï θανατηæÞρï επιøείρηµα πïυ πραγ-µατïπïιïύταν παλαιÞτερα µε περίστρïæï(ριâÞλâερ), κάτω απÞ διάæïρες συνθήκες.Βασική ιδέα τïυ εγøειρήµατïς αυτïύ σ’ Þλεςτων περιπτώσεων εæαρµïγής τïυ ήταν ηµέøρι ανïησίας επίδειêη αδιαæïρίας πρïς τïνθάνατï. (Πήγη Βικιπαίδεια).

Μεταæïρικά λïιπÞν, έøει κηρυøθεί έµµε-σα απÞ τïυς Ευρωπαίïυς Εταίρïυς µας καιειδικÞτερα τη Γερµανία ïικïνïµικÞς πÞλεµïςαæενÞς µεν εναντίïν της ΜεγάληςΒρετανίας, αæετέρïυ δε της Ρωσίας η ïπïίαδεν µπïρïύµε να æανταστïύµε Þτι θα «σιω-πήσει». Και αυτÞ είναι πïυ πληρώνει ηΚύπρïς αυτή τη στιγµή. Την τακτική της εêÞ-ντωσης.

Τï έργï είναι πλέïν σε Þλïυς πάνω κάτωγνωστÞ, αæïύ η µία øώρα µετά την άλλη, ïδη-γείται στη øρεïκïπία, «διασώúεται» απÞ τïυςδανειστές της - λεηλατείται δηλαδή ï δηµÞ-σιïς και ï ιδιωτικÞς πλïύτïς της, εêαθλιώνε-ται, εêευτελίúεται και µετατρέπεται σε άâïυ-λη απïικία.

TÂÏÈο Ë ∂˘ÚÒË«·˘ÙÔ˘ÚÔ‚ÔÏ‹ıËÎÂ;

Τï ερώτηµα Þπως πïυ τίθεται είναι αντελικά η Ευρώπη «αυτïπυρïâïλήθηκε;».ΑυτÞ ήταν και τï ερώτηµα πïυ έθεσε σε ανά-λυσή της η JB Morgan µετά την απÞæαση τïυEurogroup για τï «κïύρεµα» των καταθέσε-ων στην Κύπρï. Και η άπïψή της έøει, ιστïρι-κά, âαρύνïυσα σηµασία, καθώς ï ιδρυτής τηςδιαδραµάτισε καθïριστικÞ ρÞλï για να αντι-

µετωπιστεί η κρίση τïυ 1907 στις ΗΠΑ, øρηµα-τïδïτώντας τις τράπεúες ώστε να καλυ-æθïύν ïι καταθέτες και παράλληλα πρωτï-στάτησε στις διεργασίες πïυ τï 1913 ïδήγη-σαν στην ίδρυση της Fed.

Η απÞæαση «έσπασε τïν âασικÞ κανÞνα:∆ιατάραêε την εµπιστïσύνη τïυ κÞσµïυπάνω στην ïπïία στηρίúεται Þλï τï τραπεúικÞκαι ïικïνïµικÞ σύστηµα», υπïγραµµίúει ηSosiete Generale, ενώ η Morgan Stanley ενη-µέρωσε τïυς πελάτες της Þτι «δηµιïυργείταιένα αρνητικÞ πρïηγïύµενï µε πιθανέςσυστηµικές συνέπειες εάν ïι καταθέτες σεάλλες øώρες της Eυρωúώνης æïâηθïύν Þτιθα έøïυν και αυτïί κάπïιï ‘κïύρεµα’ στιςκαταθέσεις τïυς µελλïντικά».

Αρνητική ήταν και η τïπïθέτηση τηςMoody’s, η ïπïία αæïύ επισηµαίνει τïν κίνδυ-νï æυγής καταθέσεων απÞ την περιæέρειατης Eυρωúώνης τïνίúει Þτι η απÞæαση να επι-âληθïύν απώλειες στïυς καταθέτες «σηµα-τïδïτεί την πρïθυµία» αυτών πïυ øαράσ-σïυν πïλιτική στην Ευρωúώνη «να διακινδυ-νεύσïυν την ενεργïπïίηση άλλων ευρύτε-ρων ïικïνïµικών πρïâληµάτων», επιδιώκï-ντας άλλïυς πïλιτικïύς στÞøïυς?

ΠρÞκειται για τï «µεγάλï λάθïς» πïυïδηγεί στην αυτï-ακύρωση της ίδιας τηςΕυρωπαϊκής Ενωσης µε την παραâίαση τïυ«άâατïυ», την «παραâίαση» τïυ κυρίαρøïυδÞγµατïς, τïυ δικαιώµατïς στην ιδιïκτησία;Σε κάθε περίπτωση, πάντως, ανïικτά τίθεταιθέµα εµπιστïσύνης των καταθετών στï τρα-πεúικÞ σύστηµα και στïυς θεσµïύς πïυεγγυώνται τη λειτïυργία των τραπεúών.

Τï θέµα δεν αæïρά πλέïν µÞνï τηνΚύπρï. Ã «ιÞς» τïυ æÞâïυ, ï κλïνισµÞς τηςεµπιστïσύνης στις τράπεúες µεταδίδεται και

διαµïρæώνει αρνητικÞ κλίµα σε Þλες τις«αδύναµες» øώρες της Ευρωúώνης. ÃρατÞςείναι ï κίνδυνïς η æυγή κεæαλαίων να πλήêεικαι άλλες øώρες της Ευρωπεριæέρειας.

Τï «επιøείρηµα» τïυ Γερµανïύ υπïυργïύÃικïνïµικών Β. ΣÞιµπλε Þτι η Κύπρïς είναιêεøωριστή περίπτωση και δεν θα επαναλη-æθεί αλλïύ δεν πείθει κανέναν. à ΓερµανÞς«σïæÞς» Π. ΜπÞæιγκερ úητά την άµεση αλλα-γή της απÞæασης και πρïειδïπïιεί για τïνκίνδυνï εêάπλωσης της ανασæάλειας µεταêύτων καταθετών και σε άλλες øώρες: «Αυτή ηδήθεν απαλλïτρίωση των επενδυτών δεναπïτελεί κίνδυνï µÞνï για τï τραπεúικÞσύστηµα της Κύπρïυ, αλλά απειλεί τï øρηµα-τïπιστωτικÞ σύστηµα σε ïλÞκληρη τηνΕυρωúώνη», τïνίúει øαρακτηριστικά και πρï-ειδïπïιεί για «µïιραίες συνέπειες». Αλλά και

ï Economist είναι επικριτικÞς και øαρακτηρί-úει τï σøέδιï πïυ επιâλήθηκε ως κïντÞæθαλ-µï, αυτïκαταστρïæικÞ και άδικï.

∏ ÚˆÛÈ΋ ÛÙ¿ÛËΤïν τελευταίï øαρακτηρισµÞ øρησιµïπïί-

ησε και ï Βλ. Πïύτιν, πïυ έκανε λÞγï για ερα-σιτεøνικÞ και επικίνδυνï µέτρï. Και η στάσητïυ Ρώσïυ πρïέδρïυ έøει ιδιαίτερη σηµασία,καθώς η Κύπρïς θα επιøειρήσει να ρυθµίσειευνïϊκά τï δάνεια των 2,5 δις πïυ έøει ήδηπάρει απÞ τη Ρωσία.

«Είµαστε αναγκασµένïι να εισάγïυµεκάπïιες διïρθώσεις» στις σøέσεις µας µε τηνΚύπρï, δήλωσε και ï Ρώσïς πρωθυπïυργÞςΝτ. Μεντâέντιεæ.

20 ΜΑΡΤΙÃΥ, 2013 ÌΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓÃΡΑ

4 | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | financialmirror.com

∫ÏÂÈÛÙ¤˜ ÔÈ ÙÚ¿Â˙˜ Î·È ÙÔ ÃÚËÌ·ÙÈÛÙ‹ÚÈÔ

Τï ευρώ, ïι ευρωπαϊκές µετïøές αλλά καιη τιµή τïυ πετρελαίïυ κινήθηκαν øθες πτωτι-κά για δεύτερη συνεøÞµενη µέρα, µε τïυςεπενδυτές να ανησυøïύν για τïν κίνδυνïαπïτυøίας της εæαρµïγής ενÞς σøεδίïυ διά-σωσης της Κύπρïυ και των τραπεúών της απÞτη øρεïκïπία και την κατάρρευση.

«Ùλα τα µάτια θα παραµείνïυν στραµµέ-να στην Κύπρï.Υπάρøει µεγάλη αâεâαιÞτητα,και ακÞµα πιï πειστικÞ είναι τï Þτι δεν æαίνε-ται να διαµïρæώνεται πλειïψηæία στηνκυπριακή Βïυλή ακÞµα και αν υπάρêει µερι-κή αναδιαµÞρæωση στïν τρÞπï επιâïλής τïυκïυρέµατïς καταθέσεων» ανέæερε ï Tobias

Blattner της δεύτερης µεγαλύτερης ιαπωνι-κής øρηµατιστηριακής εταιρείας DaiwaSecurities.

ΠρÞσθεσε πως σύµæωνα µε τη λïγικήτων αγïρών σε περίπτωση πïυ τï σøέδιï δενπεράσει, αυτÞ θα ήταν καταστρïæικÞ µέøριενÞς âαθµïύ, καθώς στη θεωρία, ïι αγïρέςθα έøïυν να κάνïυν µε µια øρεïκïπία, καικανείς δεν µπïρεί να είναι σίγïυρïς για τï τιθα συµâεί σε αυτή την περίπτωση.

Ãι δείκτες FTSE 100 τïυ Λïνδίνïυ, CAC-40 τïυ Παρισιïύ και DAX της Φρανκæïύρτηςκινïύνταν πτωτικά 0,2%, 0,4% και 0,8% αντί-στïιøα øθες τï µεσηµέρι, την ώρα πïυ ïι ανη-

συøίες για την Κύπρï ενίσøυαν τη úήτηση τωνασæαλών γερµανικών κρατικών ïµïλÞγων.

Η τιµή τïυ øρυσïύ η ïπïία ανήλθε τη∆ευτέρα, σταθερïπïιήθηκε øθες στα1.602,31 δïλάρια ανά ïυγγιά, κάτω απÞ τηνυψηλÞτερη τιµή των τριών τελευταίων εâδï-µάδων πïυ κατέγραψε µε τï άνïιγµα τωναγïρών. Η τιµή ωστÞσï τïυ πετρελαίïυπαρέµεινε ευαίσθητη στη γενική αναταραøή,πέæτïντας κάτω απÞ τα 109 δïλάρια τï âαρέ-λι, µε τïυς αναλυτές να πρïειδïπïιïύν Þτι ανη κατάσταση στην ευρωúώνη επιδεινωθείêανά, η τιµή τïυ πετρελαίïυ θα επηρεάσειτην υγεία της παγκÞσµιας ïικïνïµίας.

H ÚÔÛÔ¯‹ ÙˆÓ ·ÁÔÚÒÓ ·Ú·Ì¤ÓÂÈ ÛÙÚ·Ì̤ÓË ÛÙËÓ ∫‡ÚÔ

Πάντως, τα ρωσικά κεæάλαια, πïυ εκτι-µάται Þτι θα υπïστïύν απώλειες έως 3,5 διςευρώ, σύµæωνα µε δηµïσιεύµατα έøïυναπÞ καιρÞ αρøίσει να «κïιτïύν» πρïς τηΛετïνία, υπïψήæια πρïς ένταêη στηνΕυρωúώνη. Αναλυτές λένε Þτι µέρïς τωνκεæαλαίων θα µεταæερθεί απÞ την Κύπρïσε Γερµανία, Βρετανία και Ελâετία, ενώπαράλληλα θα συµâεί «απï-offshore-πïίησητης ρωσικής ïικïνïµίας».

Σηµειώνεται Þτι η ρωσική κυâέρνησηετïιµάúεται να υιïθετήσει µέτρα για τïνεπαναπατρισµÞ των ρωσικών κεæαλαίωνπïυ είναι στï εêωτερικÞ.

Ãι νïµïθετικές ρυθµίσεις, µάλιστα, σύµ-æωνα πάντα µε δηµïσιεύµατα τïυ ρωσικïύΤύπïυ, κατατέθηκαν τïν Φεâρïυάριï στïγραæείïυ τïυ πρïέδρïυ της øώρας πρïςέγκριση, ενώ πληρïæïρίες æέρïυν τη Ρωσίανα úητά απÞ τις κυπριακές αρøές τα «ïνïµα-τεπώνυµα» Þλων των Ρώσων καταθετών!

√È ÁÂÚÌ·ÓÈÎÔ› ÛÙfi¯ÔÈΤï ερώτηµα, Þµως, πïυ πïλλές πλευρές

θέτïυν αæïρά τïυς πραγµατικïύς καιµακρïπρÞθεσµïυς στÞøïυς της Γερµανίαςµε αæïρµή τη λύση πïυ επιâάλλεται στηνΚύπρï.

Αναλυτές και πïλιτικïί εκτιµïύν Þτι απÞτην µία η «σµίκρυνση» τïυ µεγέθïυς τïυκυπριακïύ τραπεúικïύ τïµέα αæïρά τï«âρÞµικï øρήµα», τï «êέπλυµά» τïυ, αλλάαυτÞ δεν εêηγεί πλήρως τη στάση τηςΓερµανίας, καθώς τï ίδιï γίνεται και σεάλλες ευρωπαϊκές øώρες... Τï ερώτηµα, λïι-πÞν, πïυ θέτïυν ïρισµένïι πïλιτικïί αναλυ-τές είναι εάν η Γερµανία σηµατïδïτεί έτσιτη στρïæή της στάσης της έναντι τηςΕνωµένης Ευρώπης, Þπως αυτή σήµεραείναι θεσµικά, ïικïνïµικά και πïλιτικά δïµη-µένη...

Με τη ρητή διαâεâαίωση Þτι ïι καταθέ-

σεις στα υπïκαταστήµατα κυπριακών τρα-πεúών στην Ελλάδα εêαιρïύνται απÞ τηναπÞæαση τïυ Eurogroup έλληνας ï υπïυρ-γÞς Ãικïνïµικών Γ. Στïυρνάρας θέλησε ναâάλει æραγµÞ στην επέκταση τïυ κλίµατïςαâεâαιÞτητας και æÞâïυ για ντÞµινï απÞ-συρσης καταθέσεων, πïυ θα δηµιïυργïύσενέα πρïâλήµατα στï ελληνικÞ τραπεúικÞσύστηµα σε µια περίïδï κατά την ïπïίααυτÞ ανακτά την εµπιστïσύνη των καταθε-τών και των αγïρών, γεγïνÞς πïυ αντανα-κλάται στη συνεøή αύêηση των καταθέσεων

πïυ επιστρέæïυν στα τραπεúικά γκισέ.ΓενικÞτερα ïι αντιδράσεις ήταν ïι εêής- Societe Generale: Η απÞæαση «έσπασε

τïν âασικÞ κανÞνα: ∆ιατάραêε την εµπιστï-σύνη τïυ κÞσµïυ πάνω στην ïπïία στηρίúε-ται Þλï τï τραπεúικÞ και ïικïνïµικÞ σύστη-µα»

- Morgan Stanley: «∆ηµιïυργείται ένααρνητικÞ πρïηγïύµενï µε πιθανές συστηµι-κές συνέπειες εάν ïι καταθέτες σε άλλεςøώρες της Eυρωúώνης æïâηθïύν Þτι θαέøïυν και αυτïί κάπïιï ‘κïύρεµα’ στις κατα-

θέσεις τïυς µελλïντικά».- Τï άâατï παραâιάστηκε: ΠρÞκειται για

τï «µεγάλï λάθïς» πïυ ïδηγεί στην αυτï-ακύρωση της ίδιας της Ευρωπαϊκής Ενωσηςµε την παραâίαση τïυ «άâατïυ», την «παρα-âίαση» τïυ κυρίαρøïυ δÞγµατïς, τïυ δικαι-ώµατïς στην ιδιïκτησία;

- Ευρώπη: Τï ερώτηµα είναι εάν ηΓερµανία σηµατïδïτεί έτσι τη στρïæή τηςστάσης της έναντι της Ενωµένης Ευρώπης,Þπως αυτή σήµερα είναι θεσµικά, ïικïνïµι-κά και πïλιτικά δïµηµένη?

·›˙ÂÈ Ë ∂˘ÚÒË

20 ΜΑΡΤΙÃΥ, 2013

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ÌΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓÃΡΑ

∞∞ÍÍÈÈfifiÙÙÈÈÌ̠η‡ÚÚÈÈÂÂ,,∂ÈÎÔÈÓˆÓÒ Ì·˙› Û·˜ ÁÈ· Ó· Û·˜ ÂÓËÌÂÚÒÛˆÛ¯ÂÙÈο Ì ·fiÊ·Û‹ ÌÔ˘ Ô˘ ¤¯ˆ Ï¿‚ÂÈ Î·ÈÔ˘ ·ÊÔÚ¿ ÙÔ ÔÈÎÈÛÙÈÎfi ‰¿ÓÂÈÔ Ô˘ ¤¯Ô˘ÌÂÛ˘Ó¿„ÂÈ Î·Ù¿ ÙÔ ÂÚ·Ṳ̂ÓÔ ¤ÙÔ˜.Ÿˆ˜ ÁÓˆÚ›˙ÂÙ ηٿ ÙÔÓ πÔ‡ÏÈÔ ÙÔ˘ 2012¤¯ˆ Ï¿‚ÂÈ ·fi ÙËÓ ÙÚ¿Â˙¿ Û·˜ ‰¿ÓÂÈÔ, ·fiÙÔ ÔÔ›Ô Û·˜ ÔÊ›ψ Û‹ÌÂÚ· ÙÔ ÔÛfiÓ ÙˆÓ616,311 ¢ÚÒ.¢˘ÛÙ˘¯Ò˜ ÏfiÁˆ ÙˆÓ Î·ÎÒÓ ÔÈÎÔÓÔÌÈÎÒÓÛ˘ÓıËÎÒÓ Ô˘ ÂÈÎÚ·ÙÔ‡Ó ‰ÈÂıÓÒ˜ ·ÏÏ¿ ηÈÛÙËÓ ∫‡ÚÔ, ÏfiÁˆ οÔÈˆÓ ·ÓÂͤÏÂÁÎÙˆÓ·ÁÔÚÒÓ Ô˘ ¤Î·Ó·Ó ÚfiÛÊ·Ù· Ë Û‡˙˘ÁÔ˜ ηÈË ÎfiÚË ÌÔ˘, ·ÏÏ¿ Î·È ÏfiÁˆ οÔÈˆÓ ÛÔ‚·ÚÒÓÚÔ‚ÏËÌ¿ÙˆÓ Ô˘ ·ÓÙÈÌÂÙÒÈÛ· ÚÔÛˆÈοÚÔÛÊ¿Ùˆ˜ Ì ÙÔÓ Ù˙fiÁÔ, Ë ÔÈÎÔÓÔÌÈ΋ηٿÛÙ·ÛË Ù˘ ÔÈÎÔÁ¤ÓÂÈ¿˜ ÌÔ˘ ‚Ú›ÛÎÂÙ·ÈÛÙ· ¯ÂÈÚfiÙÂÚ· ›‰· ·fi ÙÔ ¤ÙÔ˜ 2000,fiÙ·Ó Î·È Ù¤ÏÂÛ· ÙÔÓ Á¿ÌÔ ÌÔ˘.¢È· ÙÔÓ ÏfiÁÔ ·˘Ùfi, Û˘ÁοÏÂÛ· ¤ÎÙ·ÎÙÔÔÈÎÔÁÂÓÂÈ·Îfi Û˘Ì‚Ô‡ÏÈÔ ÙÔ ÔÔ›Ô ‰ÈÂÍ‹¯ıËÛ ¤ÓÙÔÓÔ Îϛ̷ ÛÙȘ 17/03/2013, Î·È ÛÙÔÔÔ›Ô Ï‹ÊıËÎ·Ó ÔÈ ·ÎfiÏÔ˘ı˜ ‰‡ÛÎÔϘ ηÈÔ‰˘ÓËÚ¤˜ ·ÔÊ¿ÛÂȘ:-°›ÓÂÙ·È, Ì ¿ÌÂÛË ÈÛ¯‡, «ÎÔ‡ÚÂÌ·» ÙÔ˘‰·Ó›Ԣ Ô˘ Û·˜ ÔÊ›ÏÔ˘Ì ηٿ 30,69%.™ÙÔ ÎÔ‡ÚÂÌ· ·˘Ùfi ı· ·Ó·ÊÂÚfiÌ·ÛÙ ·fiÙÒÚ· Î·È ÛÙÔ ÂÍ‹˜ ˆ˜: «·ÔÎԋηٷÓfiËÛ˘ Î·È Â·ÁÁÂÏÌ·ÙÈÛÌÔ‡»-√È ÂÙ‹ÛȘ ‰fiÛÂȘ ÚÔ˜ ÙËÓ ÙÚ¿Â˙¿ Û·˜

ÌÂÈÒÓÔÓÙ·È ·fi 12 Û 8.-∆Ô ÂÈÙfiÎÈÔ ‰·ÓÂÈÛÌÔ‡ ÌÂÙ·ÙÚ¤ÂÙ·È ¿ÌÂÛ··fi 6,5% Û 3,72%°ÓˆÚ›˙ˆ fiÙÈ Ë ·fiÊ·Û‹ Ì·˜ ·˘Ù‹ Èı·ÓfiÓ Ó·ÌÂÈÒÛÂÈ Ù· ·Ó·ÌÂÓfiÌÂÓ· Î¤Ú‰Ë Ù˘∆Ú¿Â˙¿˜ Û·˜. ¶·Ú fiÏ· ·˘Ù¿ ›̷ÛÙÂÂÂÈṲ̂ÓÔÈ fiÙÈ Ë ÂÓ ÏfiÁˆ ·fiÊ·ÛËÂ͢ËÚÂÙ› Î·È Ù· ‰Èο Û·˜ Û˘ÌʤÚÔÓÙ·

‰ÈfiÙÈ Ì ÙËÓ «·ÔÎÔ‹ ηٷÓfiËÛ˘ ηÈ·ÁÁÂÏÌ·ÙÈÛÌÔ‡» ÌÂÈÒÓÂÙ·È Ô Î›Ó‰˘ÓÔ˜ Ó·¯¿ÛÂÙ ÔÏfiÎÏËÚÔ ÙÔ ÔÛfi ÙÔ˘ ‰·Ó›Ԣ Ô˘ÌÔ˘ ·Ú·¯ˆÚ‹Û·ÙÂ, οÙÈ Ô˘ ı· Û˘Ì‚Â› ÛÂÂÚ›ÙˆÛË ¿Ù·ÎÙ˘ ¯ÚˆÎÔ›·˜ ÌÔ˘.°ÓˆÚ›˙ˆ ›Û˘ fiÙÈ Ë ·fiÊ·Û‹ Ì·˜ ·˘Ù‹ ‰ÂÓ¤¯ÂÈ ÚÔËÁÔ‡ÌÂÓÔ ÛÙ· ¯ÚËÌ·ÙÔÔÈÎÔÓÔÌÈο‰ÚÒÌÂÓ·, Î·È fiÙÈ Èı·ÓfiÓ Ó· ·ÓÔ›ÍÂÈ ÙÔ˘˜

·ÛÎÔ‡˜ ÙÔ˘ ∞ÈfiÏÔ˘ fiÛÔÓ ·ÊÔÚ¿ ÙȘ Û¯¤ÛÂȘÌÂٷ͇ ÙÚ¿Â˙·˜ – ‰·ÓÂÈÔÏ‹ÙË, ·ÏÏ¿ ÛÙËÓÚÔÎÂÈ̤ÓË ÂÚ›ÙˆÛË ÎÚ›Ó·Ì fiÙÈ ›Ûˆ˜ Ó·Â›Ó·È Ë ÏÈÁfiÙÂÚÔ ÂÒ‰˘ÓË Ï‡ÛË ÁÈ· fiÏÔ˘˜ (›Ûˆ˜ Î·È fi¯È, ·ÏÏ¿ ·˘Ùfi ı· Ê·Ó› Û ‚¿ıÔ˜¯ÚfiÓÔ˘)ø˜ ·ÓÙÈÛÙ¿ıÌÈÛÌ· Ù˘ «·ÔÎÔ‹˜Î·Ù·ÓfiËÛ˘ Î·È Â·ÁÁÂÏÌ·ÙÈÛÌÔ‡»ÚÔÙ›ıÂÌ·È Ó· Û·˜ ·Ú·¯ˆÚ‹Ûˆ ÙÔ 100%ÙˆÓ ÌÂÙÔ¯ÒÓ Ô˘ ¤¯ˆ ·ÁÔÚ¿ÛÂÈ ·fi ÙÔ ¤ÙÔ˜2000 Î·È Ô˘ Ë ·Í›· ÙÔ˘˜, ·Ó Î·È ÌÈÎÚ‹,˘¿Ú¯ÂÈ Ë ÚÔÔÙÈ΋ ÌÂÏÏÔÓÙÈο Ó· ·˘ÍËı›ÛËÌ·ÓÙÈο.∂›Û˘ ÛÙËÓ ÂÚ›ÙˆÛË Ô˘, ÛÙ· ÂfiÌÂÓ· 7¯ÚfiÓÈ·, Ë ÙÚ¿Â˙¿ Û·˜ ‰ÂÓ ‰ËÌÔÚ·Ù‹ÛÂÈÙËÓ ÚÒÙË Î·ÙÔÈΛ· οÔÈÔ˘ ·fi ÙÔ˘˜¯ÚÂÒÛÙ˜ Ù˘ ÂÂȉ‹ ‰ÂÓ Ï‹ÚˆÓ ‰fiÛÂÈ˜Ô˘ Û·˜ ÔÊ›ÏÂÈ, ÙfiÙ ‰ÂÛ̇ÔÌ·ÈηÙËÁÔÚËÌ·ÙÈο ÂÓÒÈˆÓ ÙÔ˘ ∫˘ÚÈ·ÎԇϷԇ, ·ÏÏ¿ Î·È ÚÔ˜ ÙÔÓ ‰ÈÂıÓ‹ ·Ú¿ÁÔÓÙ·,fiÙÈ ı· ·Ú·¯ˆÚ‹Ûˆ ÙÔ 50% ÙÔ˘ ÓÂÚÔ‡ Ô˘Èı·ÓfiÓ Ó· ‚Úˆ ÛÙËÓ ‰È¿ÙÚËÛË Ô˘ ÛÎÔ‡ˆÓ· Ú·ÁÌ·ÙÔÔÈ‹Ûˆ Û ÔÈÎfiÂ‰Ô ÌÔ˘, ηÈÁÈ· ÙÔ Û˘ÓÔÏÈÎfi ‰È¿ÛÙËÌ· ÙˆÓ ‰¤Î· ÂÙÒÓ.∂›Ì·È Û›ÁÔ˘ÚÔ˜ ˆ˜ ı· ‰Â›Ù ÙËÓ ·fiÊ·Û‹Ì·˜ Ì ηٷÓfiËÛË. ∂˘ÂÏÈÛÙÒ Î·È ÛÂÂÚÂÙ·›Úˆ Û˘ÓÂÚÁ·Û›· ÛÙ· ÂfiÌÂÓ· ¯ÚfiÓÈ·.

§¿˙·ÚÔ˜ √Ì‹ÚÔ˘, ¶¿ÊÔ˜18/3/2013

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∞ÓÔÈÎÙ‹ ÂÈÛÙÔÏ‹ ÚÔ˜ ÙÔÓ ÙÚ·Â˙›ÙË ÌÔ˘

∂ÈΛӉ˘ÓË Ë ·fiÊ·ÛË

Ενδεικτική τïυ øάσµατïς εµπιστïσύνηςµεταêύ âïρρά και νÞτïυ στην ευρωúώνη είναιη περίπτωση της Κύπρïυ, σύµæωνα µε τïναρθρïγράæï των Φαϊνάνσιαλ Τάιµς, ΓκίντεïνΡάøµαν. Ùπως σηµειώνει, ïι Γερµανïί καιάλλïι âÞρειïι æïρïλïγïύµενïι έøïυν ενθαρ-ρυνθεί να πιστεύïυν Þτι τα øρήµατά τïυςπηγαίνïυν σε διεæθαρµένες øώρες τïυνÞτïυ, µε απïτέλεσµα η ΚαγκελάριïςΜέρκελ και άλλïι âÞρειïι ηγέτες να µην µπï-ρïύν να εêηγήσïυν την κατάσταση, æïâïύ-µενïι περισσÞτερη ïργή απÞ τïυς ψηæïæÞ-ρïυς τïυς.

«Η ανεêήγητη και επικίνδυνη απÞæαση ναæïρïλïγηθïύν και ïι µικρïκαταθέτες δείøνειτï âαθµÞ στïν ïπïίï έøει εêαντληθεί ησυµπάθεια για τη νÞτια ευρωúώνη», ακÞµα καιγια τη µικρή Κύπρï, σøïλιάúει ï κ. Ράøµαν.Πρïσθέτει Þτι η κυπριακή υπÞθεση απέδειêεπως ïι Ευρωπαίïι ηγέτες έøïυν êεµείνει απÞπïλιτική πίστωση, ενώ συνδέει την έλλειψηεπαρκïύς συµπάθειας πρïς την Κύπρï µετην «πικρή γεύση» πïυ άæησε η ένταêη τηςøώρας στην ΕΕ µετά τïν ελληνικÞ «εκâια-σµÞ» τïυ âέτï κατά της διεύρυνσης και ηαπÞρριψη τïυ σøεδίïυ Ανάν.

Στï κύριï άρθρï της η εæηµερίδα«Γκάρντιαν» σøïλιάúει Þτι ïι αρøές της ευρω-úώνης øρησιµïπïιïύν την Κύπρï για να επι-δείêïυν µία νέα «êερïκέæαλη σκληρÞτητα».Αν επιµείνïυν, πρïειδïπïιεί η εæηµερίδα,

µπïρεί σύντïµα να ακïλïυθήσïυν πιïδύσκïλïι καιρïί.

∞ÏÏ·Á‹ ÈÛÔÚÚÔÈÒÓ Η εκτίµηση των αναλυτών της JP Morgan

είναι Þτι η ανακατανïµή τïυ æÞρïυ στïυςκαταθέτες είναι απίθανï να αλλάêει τï κλίµαµεταêύ των ïργισµένων πïλιτών στην Κύπρï.Η τράπεúα âλέπει πάντως πιθανή αλλαγήισïρρïπιών στη Βïυλή και έγκριση τïυ τρï-πïπïιηµένïυ νïµïσøεδίïυ, συνïδευÞµενïυαπÞ άλλες δεσµεύσεις.

Ãι Φαϊνάνσιαλ Τάιµς πάντως εκτιµïύν Þτιæαίνεται δύσκïλη η στήριêη τïυ νïµïσøεδίïυαπÞ κÞµµατα πλην τïυ ∆ΗΣΥ øωρίς πλήρηεêαίρεση των καταθετών κάτω των 100.000ευρώ. à αναλυτής της JP Morgan Άλεê Γïυάιτπρïειδïπïιεί εêάλλïυ Þτι είναι µεγαλύτερïςαπÞ Þσï θεωρïύν ïι αγïρές ï κίνδυνïςπïλυήµερης καθυστέρησης στην εύρεσηνέας συµæωνίας ή η αδυναµία επίτευêης τελι-κής συµæωνίας.

Σε Þ,τι αæïρά τις ενέργειες της Ρωσίας, ïιΦαϊνάνσιαλ Τάιµς σøïλιάúïυν Þτι η κύρια ανη-συøία της έγκειται στην παρεµπÞδιση τηςµεταæïράς øρηµάτων απÞ ή µέσω τηςΚύπρïυ στï πλαίσιï πρïσπαθειών απïτρïπήςµαúικής ανάληψης καταθέσεων. Ã ΝτέιâιντΝανγκλ απÞ την επενδυτική τράπεúα

Renaissance Capital στη ΜÞσøα εêηγεί Þτιπέρα απÞ τα ρωσικά δισεκατïµµύρια σε λïγα-ριασµïύς τραπεúών στην Κύπρï, µεγαλύτερησηµασία για τη ρωσική ïικïνïµία έøει ï ρÞλïςτïυ νησιïύ ως «αγωγÞς øρηµατικών ρïών».

Στέλεøïς τïυ συµâïυλευτικïύ ïργανι-σµïύ για θέµατα æïρïλïγίας Tax ConsultingUK δηλώνει στï BBC Þτι ïι Ρώσïι έøïυνµεταæέρει τα øρήµατά τïυς στην Κύπρï διÞτι«εκεί δεν τïυς έκαναν πïλλές ερωτήσεις γιατην πρïέλευσή τïυς».Τï BBC µεταæέρει επί-σης την ανησυøία Ρώσων επιøειρηµατιών στηΛεµεσÞ πïυ σøεδιάúïυν να µεταæέρïυν ταøρήµατά τïυς στη Σιγκαπïύρη ή τï Ντïυµπάι.Ãι Τάιµς εêάλλïυ διαπιστώνïυν εµâάθυνσητης κρίσης µε επίκεντρï την Κύπρï, καθώς ηΡωσία «απειλεί» την ΕΕ µε απÞσυρση τηςïικïνïµικής της âïήθειας πρïς τï νησί, µιακίνηση πïυ «αιæνιδίασε» τï Βερïλίνï και τιςΒρυêέλλες.

¶¿Ù·ÍË Ù˘ ‰È·ÊıÔÚ¿˜ Πάντως, αρθρïγράæïς των Τάιµς σøïλιά-

úει Þτι είναι ευκαιρία για τïν ΠρÞεδρï Πïύτιννα απïδεøθεί τη úηµιά στïυς Ρώσïυς καταθέ-τες στην Κύπρï και να απïδείêει Þτι σïâαρï-λïγεί Þταν µιλά για πάταêη της διαæθïράς.

Επιπτώσεις διαπιστώνïνται και ως πρïςτην πρïïπτική µιας ευρωπαϊκής τραπεúικής

ένωσης. Ευρωπαίïς τραπεúίτης πïυ µιλάστïυς Φαϊνάνσιαλ Τάιµς øαρακτηρίúει τηναπÞæαση για τις καταθέσεις στην Κύπρï«τρελή» και σøïλιάúει Þτι ήταν «τï µεγαλύτε-ρï λάθïς πïλιτικής στï ïπïίï έøει συνηγïρή-σει η ΕΚΤ». Τα αµεσÞτερï πλήγµα καταæέρε-ται στην αêιïπιστία τïυ καθεστώτïς εγγύη-σης των καταθέσεων στην Ευρώπη, σηµειώ-νεται.

à εκ των διευθυντών τïυ ∆ιεθνïύςÌρηµατïπιστωτικïύ Ινστιτïύτïυ (IIF) πρïει-δïπïιεί µέσω της âρετανικής ïικïνïµικήςεæηµερίδας Þτι «έøïυµε την κατάργηση µιαςρητής εγγύησης». Σε σηµείωµά της η MorganStanley κάνει λÞγï για «κίνηση πέρα τωνπρïσδïκιών, πïυ εγείρει ανησυøίες για πιθα-νÞ λάθïς πïλιτικής».

ÃικïνïµïλÞγïι µε δηλώσεις τïυς στιςâρετανικές εæηµερίδες επισηµαίνïυν επι-πλέïν των άλλων τï πλήγµα αêιïπιστίας πïυδιακινδυνεύει η ΕΚΤ, αναλαµâάνïντας έναντÞσï καίριï ρÞλï σε µια απÞæαση σαν αυτήγια την Κύπρï.

Πηγή «κïντά στην ΕΚΤ» εêάλλïυ δηλώνειστïυς Φαϊνάνσιαλ Τάιµς Þτι η Τράπεúα είπεστïν ΠρÞεδρï Αναστασιάδη πως øρειαúÞταννα συµæωνηθεί µια διάσωση για να παραµεί-νει αêιÞøρεï τï τραπεúικÞ σύστηµα τηςøώρας. «∆ε θέλαµε να εµπλακïύµε στηøηµεία τïυ ύψïυς τïυ æÞρïυ (στις καταθέ-σεις)», πρïσθέτει η ίδια πηγή.

20 ΜΑΡΤΙÃΥ, 2013 ÌΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓÃΡΑ

6 | EI∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | financialmirror.com

°ÂÚÌ·ÓÔ› Î·È ∂∫∆ ¿ÓÔÈÍ·Ó ÙËÓ «ÎÂÚÎfiÔÚÙ·»Ù˘ ∂˘Úˆ˙ÒÓ˘

Στα πρÞθυρα πλήρης διάλυσης και απï-σύνθεσης πλέïν âρίσκεται η ευρωúώνη ηïπïία εδώ και τέσσερα øρÞνια πïυ êέσπασεη κρίση υπïκύπτει απÞ τï ένα εγκληµατικÞλάθïς στï άλλï µε απïκïρύæωµα τï πρωτά-κïυστï πρωτïæανές και καταστρïæικÞ κïύ-ρεµα καταθετών.

Ένα και µÞνï είναι τï ερώτηµα πïυαâίαστα πρïκύπτει απÞ την απÞæαση æïρï-λÞγησης των καταθέσεων στην Κύπρï: ΕίναιτÞσï ηλίθιïι ïι Ευρωπαίïι ηγέτες ή απïæά-σισαν να διαλύσïυν τï ευρώ;

Η απάντηση δεν είναι εύκïλη. Ãι ευρω-παίïι ηγέτες και εννïïύµε æυσικά και - πρω-τίστως - τïυς Γερµανïύς, έøïυν κάνει απÞτην αρøή της εκδήλωσης της παγκÞσµιαςκρίσης τï 2008 σωρεία εγκληµατικώνλαθών. Μια κρίση καθαρά ΑµερικάνικηκατÞρθωσαν ïι ανιστÞρητïι, ανίκανïι καιεσωστρεæής ευρωπαίïι καθïδηγïύµενïιâεâαίως απÞ τïυς Γερµανïύς, να την µετα-τρέψïυν σε καθαρά Ευρωπαϊκή.Καθυστερήσεις, διαæωνίες, πλάγιïι τρÞπïιγια να αντιµετωπισθεί ένα πρÞâληµα, κρύψι-µï των πρïâληµάτων κάτω απÞ τï øαλί,γύρω στα 25 σøέδια λύσεων, συσκέψεις επίσυσκέψεων, εγκληµατική λιτÞτητα, ακριâÞΕυρώ, κïύρεµα ïµïλÞγων ήταν Þλα αυτάπïυ περάσαµε και úήσαµε µέσα σε αυτÞ τïπïλιτικïïικïνïµικÞ µπάøαλï πïυ λέγεταιΕυρωúώνη. Και αæïύ είδαν και απïείδαν ïιΕυρωπαίïι µε Þλα αυτά να µην λύνïυν τελε-σίδικα τï πρÞâληµα πρïøώρησαν πλέïν στïανεêήγητï, να âάλïυν øέρι στις καταθέσειςτïυ απλïύ λαïύ. Και Þλα αυτά επειδή δεντïλµïύν να πράêïυν τï αυτïνÞητï, νατυπώσïυν øρήµα µε τïν τρÞπï και στïνâαθµÞ πïυ τï πράττïυν ïι Αµερικάνïι.

Ùταν µια øώρα ή ένας “øώρïς” Þπως ηΕ.Ε. øρωστάει και δεν έøει να πληρώσει,τυπώνει øρήµα και πληρώνει. Υπïτιµά τïνÞµισµα τïυ, εγγυάται Þλα τα øρέη και Þλεςτις καταθέσεις, αναγνωρίúει τα λάθη τïυ,πληρώνει και πρïøωράει.

ΑυτÞ ïι ευρωπαίïι δεν τï έκαναν.Πρïτίµησαν να διαλύσïυν την Ευρωπαϊκήïικïνïµία τïυ νÞτïυ, να στείλïυν την ανερ-γία στï 30%, να γïνατίσïυν τï λαÞ µε τηνσκληρή λιτÞτητα και να τιµωρήσïυν τïυςπάντες. Ìρησιµïπïιώντας εκâιαστικά καιαπρïκάλυπτα τï “Ευρώπη ή øάïς” παράσυ-ραν τις øώρες τïυ νÞτïυ σε ένα πρωτïæα-νές σπιράλ âαθιάς ύæεσης και κατάθλιψηςκαι αæïύ δεν τÞλµησε κανένας λαÞς ακÞµανα επαναστατήσει και να εγκαταλείψει τïΕυρώ σε µια νέα διαδικασίας µïναδικήςαλαúïνείας êέσπασαν πάνω στην µικρήΚύπρï. .

Μια περίπτωση εντελώς ασήµαντη απÞπλευράς ïικïνïµικών µεγεθών. ∆έκα δισ.είναι τï πρÞâληµα της Κύπρïυ. Αλλά δεν ταδίνïυν. ΠρÞτειναν να αρπάêïυν τï 10%περίπïυ των καταθέσεων πïυ âρίσκïνταιστις κυπριακές τράπεúες. Ας πïύµε λïιπÞνÞτι ïι κύπριïι πïλιτικïί είναι ανίκανïι. Αςπïύµε ακÞµη και Þτι τï µέτρï είναι δίκαιï,αæïύ Þσïι έøïυν λεæτά µπïρïύν να δώσïυντï 10% για να σωθεί η øώρα.

Ãι ευρωπαίïι γιατί τï έκαναν αυτÞ; ∆ενσκέæτïνται Þτι τï κυπριακÞ τραπεúικÞσύστηµα είναι µέρïς τïυ τραπεúικïύ ευρω-συστήµατïς; ∆εν σκέæτïνται Þτι αµέσωςÞλïι ïι καταθέτες πïυ έøïυν λεæτά στιςευρωπαϊκές τράπεúες θα ανησυøήσïυν; ∆ενσκέæτïνται Þτι ïι Ισπανïί, ïι Ιταλïί, ïιΓάλλïι και ïι Έλληνες θα πïύνε «η Ευρώπηâάúει øέρι στις καταθέσεις, ας πάρïυµε ταλεæτά µας απÞ τις ευρωπαϊκές τράπεúες»;Αυτή είναι η µÞνη σωστή σκέψη πïυ µπïρείκανείς να κάνει ακïύγïντας αυτÞ τï µέτρï,είτε ψηæισθεί και ισøύσει είτε δεν ψηæισθείαπÞ την Κυπριακή Βïυλή. ∆ιÞτι η πρÞτασηέγινε απÞ τïυς Ευρωπαίïυς, πράγµα τï

ïπïίï σηµαίνει Þτι ïι ευρωπαίïι δεν σέâï-νται την έννïια της τραπεúικής πίστης. ∆ενσέâïνται τïν θεσµÞ των τραπεúών.Αρπάúïυν τα λεæτά των καταθετών - µεÞπïια δικαιïλïγία, δεν έøει καµία σηµασία.Φυσικά και τα σκέæτηκαν Þλα αυτά. Αλλάαπïæάσισαν να πρïøωρήσïυν µε κατάσøεσητων καταθέσεων. Πήραν τï ρίσκï να διαλυ-θεί τï τραπεúικÞ σύστηµα της Ευρώπης. ΚαιαυτÞ τï ρίσκï δεν τï παίρνεις αν είσαι ηλί-θιïς αλλά µÞνï αν θέλεις να τïρπιλίσεις τηνκατάσταση.

ΥπÞ τις σηµερινές συνθήκες, η Ευρώπηείναι πλέïν ανασæαλές µέρïς. Τï παράδειγ-µα της Κύπρïυ µε την εêωæρενική κατάσøε-ση τïυ 10% των καταθέσεων, τï απïδεικνύ-ïυν.

Και µπïρεί να πιπιλάνε και πάλι την ίδιακαραµέλα πως η Κύπρïς είναι ειδική περί-πτωση Þπως ήταν και η Ελλάδα τï 2010 καιθα είναι και η Ιταλία τï 2014. Τï σίγïυρïÞµως είναι πως ειδική είναι µÞνï η περίπτω-

ση αυτïύ τïυ συνïνθυλεύµατïς πïυ θέλεινα ïνïµάúεται Ευρωúώνη η ïπïία αν καιδηµιïυργήθηκε για να ενώσει τα ευρωπαϊκάκράτη έøει µετατραπεί σε ένα γερµανïκρα-τïύµενï µÞρæωµα µε µïναδικÞ σκïπÞ τηνïικïνïµική ηγεµïνία των κρατών θυµίúï-ντας άλλες επïøές.

Η Κύπρïς πïυ πέρασε τï 1974 έναδράµα και δεν øάθηκε ïύτε και ένα σενταπÞ τις τράπεúες σήµερα 40 øρÞνια µετάέρøεται µια ïµάδα Γερµανών πïλιτικάντη-δων να υæαρπάêει τις ïικïνïµίες τïυ λαïύ.

Η Κύπρïς είτε απïδεøτεί τï κïύρεµαείτε Þøι είναι πλέïν de facto εκτÞς ευρωúώ-νης και είναι απλÞς θέµα øρÞνïυ να τï πρά-êει και επίσηµα και καλά θα ήταν να τï πρά-êïυµε αργά και σταθερά µÞνïι µας πριν µαςεκδιώêïυν. Η κερκÞπïρτα της ευρωúώνηςέøει ανïίêει και αν και κανείς δεν γνωρίúειαν η Κύπρïς είναι η πρώτη πïυ θα εγκατα-λείψει τï Ευρώ τï σίγïυρï είναι πως δεν θαείναι η µÞνη.

Foreign Exchange AnalystEmail: michailidisn@aol.com

¡¡››ÎÎÔÔ˜ ªªÈȯ··ËËÏÏ››‰‰Ë˘

ªÂÙ¿ ÙÔ ÚˆÙÔÊ·Ó‹ ÂÏÏËÓÈÎfi ÎÔ‡ÚÂÌ· Î·È ÙËÓ ÂÁÎÏËÌ·ÙÈ΋ ÏÈÙfiÙËÙ·ÔÈ «ÂÈÛÙ‹ÌÔÓ˜» ÙˆÓ µÚ˘ÍÂÏÏÒÓ ¤‚·Ï·Ó ¯¤ÚÈ Î·È ÛÙȘ ηٷı¤ÛÂȘÚÔηÏÒÓÙ·˜ ÛÔÎ Î·È ‰¤Ô˜ ·Ó¿ ÙÔ ·ÁÎfiÛÌÈÔ

∏ ∫‡ÚÔ˜ ·ÔÎ·Ï˘ÙÈ΋ ÙÔ˘ ¯¿ÛÌ·ÙÔ˜

20 MAΡΤΙÃΥ, 2013

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ÌΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓÃΡΑ

ÊÔÚÔÏfiÁËÛ˘ ÙˆÓ Î·Ù·ı¤ÛˆÓ

Ãι αναλυτές πïυ υπïστηρίúïυν την απÞ-æαση για την επιâάρυνση των καταθέσεων ήακÞµα και των µικρÞτερων καταθέσεων, πïυστη Βρετανία απïτελïύν σαæώς µειïψηæίαÞπως έøει æανεί αυτές τις µέρες, επικεντρώ-νïνται στη δïµή øρηµατïδÞτησης τωνκυπριακών τραπεúών. Σηµειώνïυν Þτι ταπρïνïµιακά ïµÞλïγα δεν êεπερνïύν τα 200εκατïµµύρια ευρώ και δεν αγγίøθηκαν µεένα κïύρεµά τïυς διÞτι θα συνεισέæερανελάøιστη âïήθεια, δυσανάλïγη µε την ανη-συøία πïυ θα πρïκαλείτï στην επενδυτικήκïινÞτητα.

«Ατελή, άδικη, ελαττωµατική, επιλεκτικάεκδικητική, αντιπαραγωγική, ευθέως εøθρικήπρïς ένα µικρÞ νησί», øαρακτηρίúει τï πακέ-τï πïυ συµæωνήθηκε για την Κύπρï µε επι-στïλή τïυ πïυ δηµïσιεύεται στην εæηµερίδαGuardian ï πρÞεδρïς της Εθνικής Κυπριακής

õïσπïνδίας Ηνωµένïυ Βασιλείïυ Πήτερ∆ρïυσιώτης.

à κ. ∆ρïυσιώτης σøïλιάúει Þτι η «διάσω-ση» θα έπρεπε να απïκαλείται εκâιασµÞς,ενώ σηµειώνει Þτι τα πρïâλήµατα τηςΚύπρïυ πρïκλήθηκαν απÞ την υπερέκθεσήτης στην Ελλάδα και τï κïύρεµα στα ελληνι-κά ïµÞλïγα πïυ επέâαλε η ίδια η ευρωúώνηπέρυσι.

«ΠρÞκειται για διπλή τιµωρία απÞ τïυςίδιïυς ανθρώπïυς», αναæέρει øαρακτηριστι-κά η επιστïλή.

Σηµειώνεται Þτι ïι Κύπριïι τηςΒρετανίας, ïρισµένïι εκ των ïπïίων επηρεά-úïνται απÞ τη úηµιά στις καταθέσεις, θα στα-θïύν στï πλευρÞ της Κύπρïυ αυτή τη δύσκï-λη περίïδï, ωστÞσï θα έπρεπε να ήταν πιïέκδηλη στις Βρυêέλλες τï Σάââατï και ηαλληλεγγύη της ΕΕ.

ÂÌÈÛÙÔÛ‡Ó˘ ÂÓÙfi˜ Ù˘ Â˘Úˆ˙ÒÓ˘

∏ ÂÈÏÔÁ‹ Ô˘ ‰fiıËΠÛÙËÓ ∫‡ÚÔ Â›Ó·È ··Ú¿‰ÂÎÙË Î·È Î·Ù·ÛÙÚÔÊÈ΋

Η κρίση της Κύπρïυ είναι, Þπως ήταν καιη κρίση της Ισλανδίας και της Ιρλανδίας,κυρίως τραπεúική κρίση. Η ‘λύση’ πïυ πρïω-θείται απÞ την τρÞικα στην Κύπρï Þµως,είναι σαæώς øειρÞτερη απÞ τις άλλες δύï.Απειλεί να καταστρέψει την κυπριακή ïικï-νïµία και να αναúωπυρώσει την κρίση τïυευρώ.

Τï πρÞâληµα και στις τρεις αυτές øώρεςπρïήλθε απÞ τï øρεïκïπηµένï τραπεúικÞσύστηµα, καθώς ï δηµÞσιïς τïµέας έøεισøετικά øαµηλÞ øρέïς και δεν ευθύνεται γιατην κρίση. Η ïικïνïµική καταστρïæή πρïήλ-θε απÞ τις τράπεúες, αλλά τï âάρïς καλείταινα τï σηκώσει τï δηµÞσιï και η κïινωνίασυνïλικά.

à τραπεúικÞς τïµέας της Κύπρïυ έøειπεριïυσιακά στïιøεία περίπïυ ïκταπλάσιατïυ ΑΕΠ, Þπως και ï ιρλανδικÞς, ενώ ïισλανδικÞς ήταν ακÞµη µεγαλύτερïς Þτανøτύπησε η κρίση. Στην Ισλανδία ïι τράπεúεςδανείúïνταν διεθνώς για να παίêïυν στιςαγïρές παραγώγων, ενώ στην Ιρλανδία γιανα κερδïσκïπήσïυν στα ακίνητα. ΣτηνΚύπρï πρïσέλκυαν καταθέσεις διεθνώς καιέκαναν µεγάλες τïπïθετήσεις σε ελληνικάκρατικά ïµÞλïγα, ενώ δάνεισαν και σε ελλη-νικές επιøειρήσεις.

Ãι ισλανδικές τράπεúες øρεïκÞπησανµετά την κατάρρευση την Λίµαν Μπράδερςτï 2008, ïι ιρλανδικές Þταν έσκασε η τερά-στια æïύσκα ακινήτων τï 2008-9 και ïικυπριακές µε την ελληνική κρίση, κυρίωςµετά τï τραγικÞ PSI και τα κïυρέµατα τïυ2012.

∏ ÙÚ·Â˙È΋ ÎÚ›ÛËΤι σηµαίνει Þµως τραπεúική κρίση; Πïυ

µïιάúïυν, αλλά και πïυ διαæέρïυν ïι τρειςαυτές øώρες?

Ãι τράπεúες είναι εταιρείες µε µικρÞπïσïστÞ δικών τïυς κεæαλαίων. Κινïύνταικυρίως µε τα øρήµατα άλλων, τα ïπïία συλ-λέγïυν είτε εκδίδïντας ïµÞλïγα, είτε δεøÞ-µενες καταθέσεις. Ùταν συµâεί τραπεúική

κρίση, τα δάνεια των τραπεúών συνήθωςδεν µπïρïύν να απïπληρωθïύν. Άρα ïιúηµίες πρέπει να καλυæθïύν απÞ τα δικάτïυς κεæάλαια. Αυτά Þµως δεν επαρκïύν.

Η ευνïϊκÞτερη λύση για τις τράπεúεςείναι να λάâïυν νέα κεæάλαια απÞ τï κρά-τïς, µεταâιâάúïντας τις úηµίες στïυς æïρï-λïγïύµενïυς και αυêάνïντας τï δηµÞσιïøρέïς. Αλλά µπïρεί επίσης, να µεταâιâα-στïύν ïι úηµίες στïυς µετÞøïυς και τïυςïµïλïγιïύøïυς των τραπεúών, Þπως υπïτί-θεται Þτι επιâάλει η ïικïνïµία της αγïράς.Αυτïί πïυ κατέøïυν ή δάνεισαν στις τράπε-úες, είναι αυτïί πïυ πρέπει να σηκώσïυν τïâάρïς.

Βασική αρøή είναι να απïæεύγεται ηµεταâίâαση των úηµιών στïυς καταθέτες,γιατί έτσι πλήττεται η λαϊκή απïταµίευσηκαι η κυκλïæïρία τïυ øρήµατïς. ΑκÞµη øει-ρÞτερï είναι Þτι υπïσκάπτεται η εµπιστïσύ-νη στις τράπεúες. Αν υπάρêει γενικευµένηανησυøία, θα εµæανιστεί κίνδυνïς µαúικώναναλήψεων και άρα ïλικής κατάρρευσης.Για τï λÞγï αυτÞ ïι κυâερνήσεις συνήθωςεγγυïύνται τις µικρές καταθέσεις.

√ ‰ÚfiÌÔ˜ Ù˘ πÛÏ·Ó‰›·˜ Î·È Ô ‰ÚfiÌÔ˜ Ù˘ πÚÏ·Ó‰›·˜

Η εµπειρία της Ισλανδίας και τηςΙρλανδίας είναι καθïριστική, καθώς δείøνειµε σαæή τρÞπï δύï διαæïρετικïύς δρÞµïυςγια τη λύση και την έêïδï απÞ την κρίση. ΗΙσλανδία αρνήθηκε να δώσει νέα κεæάλαιαστις τράπεúες και να διïγκώσει τï δηµÞσιïøρέïς της. Άæησε τις τράπεúες να øρεïκï-πήσïυν, αλλά πρïστάτευσε τïυς εγøώριïυςκαταθέτες µεταâιâάúïντας τη úηµία στïυςµετÞøïυς, τïυς ïµïλïγιïύøïυς και τïυςêένïυς καταθέτες. Αντίθετα, η ΙρλανδίαøρηµατïδÞτησε αæειδώς τις τράπεúες διï-γκώνïντας τï δηµÞσιï øρέïς της.Πρïστάτευσε âέâαια τïυς καταθέτες, αλλάκαι τïυς µεγάλïυς ïµïλïγιïύøïυς, πïυήταν στην ïυσία êένες τράπεúες.

Η Ισλανδία µπÞρεσε να κάνει αυτήν τηνεπιλïγή γιατί δεν είναι µέλïς της ÃΝΕ.Μακριά απÞ την τρÞικα, η øώρα έδωσε πρï-τεραιÞτητα στην εγøώρια ïικïνïµία, έκανευπïτίµηση, επέâαλε έλεγøï στην κίνησηκεæαλαίων και πέρασε σε σηµαντική ανά-καµψη τï 2012. Αντίθετα, η Ιρλανδία ακï-λïύθησε τïν δρÞµï της τρÞικα, τï δηµÞσιïøρέïς της γιγαντώθηκε, είναι στïν έκτï

øρÞνï ύæεσης και ïι πρïïπτικές ανάπτυêηςείναι κακές.

∏ ··Ú¿‰ÂÎÙË ÂÈÏÔÁ‹ ÁÈ· ÙËÓ ∫‡ÚÔ

Η Κύπρïς πήρε τï δρÞµï της Ιρλανδίαςτï 2012. Ανέâασε τï δηµÞσιï δανεισµÞ τηςκαι δέøτηκε τη λιτÞτητα της τρÞικα. Αλλά ïιτράπεúες øρειάúïνται ακÞµη περίπïυ 17 διςευρώ. Η τρÞικα πρïτείνει τα 10 δις να πρï-έλθïυν απÞ νέï κρατικÞ δανεισµÞ και ïκύριïς Þγκïς των υπïλïίπων απÞ τα øρήµα-τα των καταθετών. Ãι καταθέτες θα λάâïυνµετïøές ίσης ïνïµαστικής αêίας, αλλά στηνπράêη θα υπïστïύν úηµία.

Στï δρÞµï αυτÞν η Κύπρïς θα δεøτείακÞµη αυστηρÞτερη λιτÞτητα και τï δηµÞ-σιï øρέïς της θα ανέâει πάνω απÞ 100% τïυΑΕΠ. Η νέα λιτÞτητα, η απώλεια καταθέσεωνκαι ï περιïρισµÞς της τραπεúικής ρευστÞ-τητας θα âαθύνïυν την ύæεση, πïυ µπïρείνα æτάσει και τï 5% τï 2013. Τï διïγκωµένïδηµÞσιï øρέïς σύντïµα θα γίνει µη âιώσιµïκαι µάλλïν θα øρειαστεί νέα «διάσωση» καικïύρεµα. Έπïνται µειώσεις µισθών καισυντάêεων, ενώ θα ανέâει κι άλλï η ανερ-γία.

Η σïâαρÞτερη παρενέργεια Þµως, είναιη µεταâίâαση τïυ κÞστïυς στις καταθέσεις.Η τρÞικα πήρε αυτήν την απÞæαση γιατί δενήθελε να διασώσει τïυς ρώσïυς µεγαλïκα-ταθέτες των κυπριακών τραπεúών.ΠρÞκειται για απίστευτï µέτρï πïυ αντιâαί-νει τις âασικές αρøές λειτïυργίας των τρα-πεúών. Η επιλïγή πïυ δÞθηκε στην κυπρια-κή κυâέρνηση είναι απαράδεκτη και κατα-στρïæική.

Αν τï κÞστïς µεταâιâαστεί εê ïλïκλή-ρïυ στïυς µεγαλïκαταθέτες, η αναπτυêια-κή στρατηγική της Κύπρïυ να γίνει διεθνέςøρηµατïπιστωτικÞ κέντρï εκµηδενίúεται,καθώς ïι κυπριακές τράπεúες θα γίνïυν διε-θνώς αναêιÞπιστες. Θα υπάρêει απÞσυρσηκαταθέσεων και τïυ εêωτερικïύ, απώλειαρευστÞτητας, τραπεúική συρρίκνωση καιâάθεµα της ύæεσης.

Αν µέρïς τïυ κÞστïυς επιâληθεί στïυςµικρïκαταθέτες, Þπως αρøικά σøεδιάστηκε,τα απïτελέσµατα θα είναι ακÞµη øειρÞτερα.Η παραâίαση της κρατικής εγγύησης θακαταστρέψει την εµπιστïσύνη των καταθε-τών πρïς τις τράπεúες, πïυ είναι τελικά καιη µÞνη πραγµατική εγγύηση. Ã κίνδυνïς να

επαναληæθεί και σε άλλες øώρες της ÃΝΕείναι εµæανής.

Η αντίδραση των µικρïκαταθετών τηςΚύπρïυ ίσως ïδηγήσει σε αλλαγή αυτήςαπίστευτης απÞæασης. ΑκÞµη κι έτσι Þµως,θα υπάρêïυν ïυρές καταθετών Þταν êανα-νïίêïυν ïι κυπριακές τράπεúες. ΠαρÞµïιïςκίνδυνïς υπάρøει και στην Ελλάδα και τιςάλλες øώρες της περιæέρειας πïυ έøïυνøρέη και αδύναµες τράπεúες. ΠïιÞς µπïρείπλέïν να είναι âέâαιïς για τις απïταµιεύ-σεις τïυ; Η εµπιστïσύνη øτίúεται σιγά-σιγά,αλλά καταστρέæεται µε µιας. Τï πλήγµα γιατï τραπεúικÞ σύστηµα είναι µεγάλï και θααναúωπυρώσει την κρίση τïυ ευρώ.

Η σκληρή απÞæαση της ΕΕ πάρθηκεγιατί κυπριακή ïικïνïµία είναι µÞλις 0.2%της Ευρωúώνης, ενώ η Κύπρïς έøει µηδαµι-νή πïλιτική στήριêη. Ã κυνισµÞς της τρÞικαδείøνει êεκάθαρα πια και για τïυς πλέïνδύσπιστïυς Þτι Þøι µÞνï δεν υπάρøει πραγ-µατική αλληλεγγύη στην ÃΝΕ, αλλά ïύτεκαν ïι ίδιïι κανÞνες για Þλïυς. Τï απïτέλε-σµα σε ευρωπαϊκÞ επίπεδï είναι να επιτα-øυνθεί η απïσύνθεση τïυ ευρώ. Για τηνΚύπρï Þµως τίθεται ευθέως και θέµα εθνι-κής υπÞστασης, ιδίως λÞγω της ιστïρικήςαδυναµίας της Ελλάδας την περίïδï αυτή.

Η Κύπρïς θα πρέπει να εêετάσει σïâαράτην επιλïγή της Ισλανδίας. Αν δεν θέλει ναâïυλιάêει ïικïνïµικά, κïινωνικά και ίσωςεθνικά, θα πρέπει να πρïστατεύσει τïυςµικρïύς καταθέτες και την ïικïνïµία της,αæήνïντας τις τράπεúες να øρεïκïπήσïυν.Θα πρέπει κατÞπιν να περάσει σε άλλη δια-δικασία ανάπτυêης, συρρικνώνïντας τïναπïτυøηµένï και γιγαντιαίï τραπεúικÞτïµέα και τïνώντας τï παραγωγικÞ τηςδυναµικÞ.

Για να τï κάνει αυτÞ θα πρέπει έρθει σεσύγκρïυση µε την τρÞικα, øωρίς να æïâάταιτην έêïδï απÞ την ÃΝΕ. Θα πρέπει επίσηςνα αναúητήσει επειγÞντως νέες γεωπïλιτι-κές συµµαøίες πïυ θα της σταθïύν πραγµα-τικά. Και κυρίως θα øρειαστεί συσπείρωσητων λαϊκών στρωµάτων πïυ απειλïύνταιάµεσα. Είναι ώρα µεγάλων απïæάσεων γιατïυς Κυπρίïυς.

√ ∫ÒÛÙ·˜ §··‚›ÙÛ·˜ Â›Ó·È ∫·ıËÁËÙ‹˜ÔÈÎÔÓÔÌÈÎÒÓ ÛÙË ™¯ÔÏ‹ ∞Ó·ÙÔÏÈÎÒÓ Î·È∞ÊÚÈηÓÈÎÒÓ ™Ô˘‰ÒÓ ÙÔ˘ ¶·ÓÂÈÛÙËÌ›Ô˘ÙÔ˘ §ÔÓ‰›ÓÔ˘. ∂ȉÈ·ÂÙ·È ÛÙÔÓ¯ÚËÌ·ÙÔÈÛÙˆÙÈÎfi ÙÔ̤· Î·È ÛÙËÓ È·ˆÓÈ΋ ÔÈÎÔÓÔÌ›·

TÔ˘ ∫ÒÛÙ· §··‚›ÙÛ·

20 MAΡΤΙÃΥ, 2013 ÌΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓÃΡΑ

8 | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | financialmirror.com

ŸÏÈ ƒÂÓ: ÀÔ‚ÔËıËÙÈÎfi˜ Ô ÚfiÏÔ˜ Ù˘ ∫ÔÌÈÛÈfiÓ∆Ô ∂urogroup ·ÔÊ¿ÛÈÛ ÁÈ· ÙËÓ ∫‡ÚÔ

à ρÞλïς της Ευρωπαϊκής Επιτρïπής στην διαπραγµάτευ-ση τïυ Εurogroup ήταν υπïâïηθητικÞς, τα κράτη µέλη είναιεκείνα πïυ απïæάσισαν για την Κύπρï.

Την παραπάνω απάντηση έδωσε o εκπρÞσωπïς τηςΚïµισιÞν στη σωρεία των ερωτήσεων-επικρίσεων πïυδέøθηκε απÞ δηµïσιïγράæïυς, στις Βρυêέλλες, σøετικά µετï γιατί η ΚïµισιÞν απïδέøθηκε την επιâïλή τïυ εæάπαêτέλïυς σταθερÞτητας στïυς µικρïύς καταθέτες µέøρι100.000 ευρώ.

Σύµæωνα µε τïν εκπρÞσωπï τïυ Ùλι Ρεν, τα κράτη µέληέøïυν την ευθύνη για τις απïæάσεις, ï ρÞλïς της ΚïµισιÞνείναι αæενÞς µεν να διευκïλύνει τη συúήτηση και κυρίως ναεπïπτεύει την τήρηση των συµæωνηθέντων. Στï πλαίσιïαυτÞ, πρÞσθεσε, δεν θέλει να σøïλιάσει για λïγαριασµÞ τηςΚïµισιÞν τις διάæïρες æάσεις της διαπραγµάτευσης.

Πάντως, ανέæερε Þτι εδώ και 9 µήνες πïυ υπïâλήθηκετï αίτηµα στήριêης απÞ την Κύπρï, η ΚïµισιÞν είøε να øειρι-στεί µια κατάσταση εêαιρετικά δύσκïλη και πïλύπλïκη µεµικρά περιθώρια ελιγµών στις συúητήσεις, µια κατάστασηπïυ øαρακτήρισε ιδιαίτερη στην Ευρωúώνη, λÞγω και τïυ

µεγέθïυς τïυ øρηµατïπιστωτικïύ τïµέα.Ã εκπρÞσωπïς υπïστήριêε επίσης Þτι στην Κύπρï âρί-

σκεται αυτή τη στιγµή σε εêέλιêη µια δηµïκρατική διαδικασίακαι είναι απïλύτως λïγικÞ να úητείται η νïµιµïπïίηση µιαςαπÞæασης απÞ τï εθνικÞ κïινïâïύλιï της ενδιαæερÞµενηςøώρας. Μάλιστα, Þπως είπε, η επικύρωση αυτής της απÞæα-

σης είναι απαραίτητη γιατί εγγυάται και την εæαρµïγή της.à ίδιïς εκπρÞσωπïς επανέλαâε και τη δήλωση τïυ

Πρïέδρïυ τïυ Εurogroup µε την ïπïία έδωσε τï «πράσινïæως» για µια πρïïδευτικÞτητα στην εæαρµïγή της εæάπαêεισæïράς σταθερÞτητας, υπÞ την πρïϋπÞθεση Þτι αυτÞ θαδιασæαλίúει την εισæïρά της Κύπρïυ στï πρÞγραµµα πïυανέρøεται σε 5,8 δισ. ευρώ.

Ερωτηθείς εάν η ΚïµισιÞν έøει επεêεργαστεί κάπïιï σøέ-διï B σε περίπτωση απÞρριψης της συµæωνίας απÞ τη Βïυλήτων Αντιπρïσώπων, είπε Þτι δεν απαντάει σε εντελώς υπï-θετικές ερωτήσεις.

Τέλïς, ερωτηθείς σøετικά µε τις αντιδράσεις της Ρωσίαςγια την εæάπαê εισæïρά και τï κατά πÞσï τï θέµα θα συúη-τηθεί την Πέµπτη στη συνάντηση πïυ θα έøει η ΚïµισιÞν στηΜÞσøα µε την ρωσική κυâέρνηση, ï εκπρÞσωπïς είπε Þτι τïθέµα δεν ήταν στην ηµερήσια διάταêη, αλλά ïι Ρώσïι úήτη-σαν να συúητηθεί. Θα µιλήσïυµε και θα τïυς εêηγήσïυµεπïίïς είναι ï ρÞλïς της ΚïµισιÞν στην απÞæαση τïυΕurogroup, είπε, πρïσθέτïντας Þτι και η κυπριακή κυâέρνη-ση θα έøει συúητήσεις µε τïυς Ρώσïυς.

¶¶··ÚÚ··ÛÛÎ΢‹‹ ÙÙ·· ÚÚÒÒÙÙ·· ÛÛÙÙÔÔÈȯ››·· ÁÁÈÈ·· ÙÙÈȘ ÂÂÁÁÁÁÂÂÁÁÚÚ··ÌÌÌ̤¤ÓÓ˜ ÂÂÙÙ··ÈÈÚÚ››Â˜Είναι πïλύ νωρίς ακÞµη για να έøïυµε µια êεκάθαρη

εικÞνα σε Þ,τι αæïρά τïν αντίκτυπï της απÞæασης τïυEurogroup στις εργασίες των εγγεγραµµένων εταιρειώνστην Κύπρï, δήλωσε ï Έæïρïς Εταιρειών και ΕπίσηµïςΠαραλήπτης Σπύρïς ΚÞκκινïς.

à κ. ΚÞκκινïς είπε Þτι δεν υπάρøïυν µέøρι στιγµής στα-τιστικά στïιøεία πïυ να δείøνïυν πïια είναι η κατάσταση σεσøέση µε τις εταιρείες, πρïσθέτïντας Þτι κάπïια στïιøείαθα µπïρïύν να συγκεντρωθïύν µέøρι την ερøÞµενηΠαρασκευή, ïπÞταν θα µπïρεί να γίνει µια πρώτη εκτίµησητης κατάστασης.

«Είναι πïλύ νωρίς για να υπάρøïυν στατιστικά στïιøείαπïυ να αæïρïύν την εγγραæή νέων εταιρειών και τις Þπïι-ες αλλαγές ενδεøïµένως να γίνïυν σε σøέση µε υæιστάµε-νες εταιρείες, Þπως η αλλαγή διευθυντών, µετÞøων, αυêή-σεις και µειώσεις κεæαλαίïυ, αλλαγή ïνÞµατïς», είπε.

Σøïλιάúïντας την απÞæαση τïυ Eurogroup για κïύρεµακαταθέσεων, ï κ. ΚÞκκινïς είπε Þτι η απÞæαση τïυEurogroup απïτελεί ένα «κτύπηµα» για την Κύπρï καισηµείωσε Þτι Þπïια και αν είναι η απÞæαση της Βïυλής έøειήδη γίνει «ένα µεγάλï κακÞ».

ΑναπÞæευκτα, πρÞσθεσε, η απÞæαση θα πρïκαλέσει ένα

πïλύ σïâαρÞ πρïâληµατισµÞ στïυς επενδυτές για τï κατάπÞσïν θα πρέπει θα συνεøίσïυν να διατηρïύν τις καταθέ-σεις τïυς στην Κύπρï.

Εêέæρασε, επίσης, τη âεâαιÞτητα τïυ Þτι η Βïυλή και ïκάθε ένας âïυλευτής øωριστά θα πρïâληµατιστïύν πάραπïλύ για τï εάν θα πρέπει να στηρίêïυν ή να απïρρίψïυντην εν λÞγω απÞæαση.

«Ùπïια και αν είναι η τελική απÞæαση , τï γεγïνÞςπαραµένει Þτι δεøτήκαµε ένα µεγάλï øαστïύκι», είπε καιευøήθηκε, τέλïς, η απÞæαση πïυ θα ληæθεί να έøει τις λιγÞ-τερï ïδυνηρές συνέπειες.

¢¢ÂÂÓÓ ÌÌÂÂÈÈÒÒÓÓÔÔÓÓÙÙ··ÈÈ ÔÔÈÈ ÙÙ‹‹ÛÛÂÂÈȘ ÙÙˆÓÓ ∫∫∞∞ ÛÛÙÙËË ƒƒˆÛÛ››·· Για παραπληρïæÞρηση της κïινής γνώµης αναæïρικά µε

δήθεν απÞæαση πïυ έøει λάâει ï πρÞεδρïς της Εταιρείας γιαµείωση των πτήσεων απÞ και πρïς τη Ρωσία κάνïυν λÞγω ïιΚυπριακές Αερïγραµµές, υπïγραµµίúïντας πως πρÞκειται γιαανυπÞστατïυς ισøυρισµïύς πïυ διατυπώνïνται µαúί µε άλλεςανακρίâειες σε ανακïίνωση της Παγκύπριας ΣυντεøνίαςΠιλÞτων (ΠΑΣΥΠΙ).

Ùπως σηµειώνεται σε ανακïίνωση της εταιρείας τï 2013ïι ΚΑ θα πραγµατïπïιήσïυν αυêηµένï αριθµÞ πτήσεων απÞκαι πρïς την ΜÞσøα, πρïσθέτïντας και τï δρïµïλÞγιïΜÞσøας Πάæïυ στï πρÞγραµµα τïυς µε µία πτήση τη âδïµά-δα. Τï πρÞγραµµα της Εταιρείας για τη θερινή περίïδï περι-λαµâάνει συνïλικά 12 πτήσεις την âδïµάδα απÞ τις ïπïίες ïι8 πρïς και απÞ τη ΜÞσøα και ïι 4 πρïς και απÞ την ΑγίαΠετρïύπïλη.

Μïναδική διαæïρά σε σøέση µε πέρσι είναι η µείωση πτή-σεων απÞ την Αγία Πετρïύπïλη, η ïπïία κατέστη αναγκαία ωςαπïτέλεσµα της επιµήκυνσης της περιÞδïυ ναυλωµένων πτή-σεων.

Ας σηµειωθεί Þτι στï Σøέδιï Αναδιάρθρωσης τïυ ïίκïυ AirFrance KLM Consulting τï ïπïίï η ΠΑΣΥΠΙ επικαλείται ωςευαγγέλιï, γίνεται εισήγηση για πλήρη κατάργηση των πτήσε-ων απÞ Αγία Πετρïύπïλη, Þµως η ∆ιεύθυνση - ∆ιïίκηση, σταθ-µίúïντας τα δεδïµένα δεν την υιïθέτησε.

Αυτές τις µέρες η Εταιρεία εργάúεται για να παρïυσιάσει,κατÞπιν ïδηγιών τïυ Πρïέδρïυ της ∆ηµïκρατίας κ. ΝίκïυΑναστασιάδη στη διυπïυργική επιτρïπή πïυ διÞρισε εναλλα-κτικές επιλïγές πïυ θα καθïρίσïυν τï µέλλïν των Εταιρείας.

∞Ó·ÎÚÈ‚¤Ûٷ٘ ÔÈ ‰ËÏÒÛÂȘ√ÚÔ˘ÓÙÈÒÙË

Καταλήγïντας, ïι ΚΑ επιθυµïύν να ανασκευάσïυν πρÞ-σæατες ανακριâέστατες δηλώσεις τïυ πρïέδρïυ τïυ ΚÃΤ κ.Ãρïυντιώτη σε τηλεïπτικÞ σταθµÞ, Þτι η Εταιρεία απïúηµιώ-νεται αδρά δήθεν και Þτι λαµâάνει τριπλάσια ïικïνïµική âïή-θεια σε σøέση µε την απώλεια για τις πτήσεις πρïς τη ΡωσίαλÞγω τïυ τïυρκικïύ εµπάργκï!

Η απïúηµίωση πïυ λαµâάνïυν ïι ΚΑ αæïρά µÞνï την ïικï-νïµική απώλεια απÞ τα επιπλέïν καύσιµα πïυ καταναλώνïυνγια κάθε πραγµατïπïιηθείσα πτήση. ∆εν υπïλïγίúεται καθÞ-λïυ τï ανταγωνιστικÞ µειïνέκτηµα πïυ έøïυν Þταν αναγκάúï-νται να πετïύν δύï ώρες επιπλέïν, συγκριτικά µε τïυς αντα-γωνιστές τïυς στα δρïµïλÞγια της ΜÞσøας και ΑγίαςΠετρïύπïλης. ∆εν µετράνε επίσης ïύτε άλλες παράµετρïιÞπως ïι περισσÞτερες ώρες εργïδÞτησης πρïσωπικïύ ενπτήσει, ï περιïρισµÞς της øρήσης των αερïσκαæών καικυρίως τï γεγïνÞς Þτι τï εµπάργκï καθιστά απαγïρευτικήλÞγω µεγαλύτερης απÞστασης την δραστηριïπïίηση τωνΚυπριακών Αερïγραµµών σε άλλïυς πρïïρισµïύς τηςΡωσίας. ∆εν είναι τυøαίï πïυ παρά τï γεγïνÞς Þτι ïι ΚΑπετïύν στη Ρωσία για 20 øρÞνια τώρα, τï µερίδιÞ τïυς παρα-µένει καθηλωµένï στï 10%. Είναι âέâαιï Þτι øωρίς τï εµπάρ-γκï θα µπïρïύσε µε τïυς πιï συντηρητικïύς υπïλïγισµïύςνα είøε σήµερα ένα µερίδιï της τάêης τïυ 30% πïυ θα της

απέæερε έσïδα µεταêύ 55-60 εκ. ευρώ!Είναι γι αυτÞ πïυ η Εταιρεία δυσκïλεύεται να κατανïήσει

πως ï πρÞεδρïς τïυ ΚÃΤ κατέληêε στï συµπέρασµα Þτι ïι ΚΑλαµâάνïυν τριπλάσια απïúηµίωση, ενώ παρïυσίασε τηνΕταιρεία να µεταæέρει απÞ τη Ρωσία 20,000 τïυρίστες, Þτανµε τï πτητικÞ πρÞγραµµα πïυ είναι σε εêέλιêη αναµένεται καιæέτïς Þπως και πέρσι να διακινηθïύν µεταêύ 60-65,000 Ρώσïιτïυρίστες. Συνεπώς καλείται ï κύριïς Ãρïυντιώτης είτε νατεκµηριώσει τïυς ισøυρισµïύς τïυ είτε να τïυς απïσύρει.

∆Ô 2013 ÔÈ ∫∞ ı· Ú·ÁÌ·ÙÔÔÈ‹ÛÔ˘Ó ·˘ÍË̤ÓÔ ·ÚÈıÌfiÙ‹ÛÂˆÓ ·fi Î·È ÚÔ˜ ÙËÓ ƒˆÛÈ΋ ÚˆÙÂ‡Ô˘Û·,ÚÔÛı¤ÙÔÓÙ·˜ Î·È ÙÔ ‰ÚÔÌÔÏfiÁÈÔ ªfiÛ¯·˜ - ¶¿ÊÔ˘ ÛÙÔ ÚfiÁÚ·ÌÌ· ÙÔ˘˜

ππ‰‰ÚÚ‡‡ÂÂÙÙ··ÈÈ ··‡‡ÚÚÈÈÔÔ ∫∫››ÓÓËËÛÛËË ÂÂÓÓ¿¿ÓÓÙÙÈÈ·· ÛÛÙÙÈȘ ππ‰‰ÈȈÙÙÈÈÎÎÔÔÔÔÈÈ‹‹ÛÛÂÂÈȘΤην ίδρυση της Κίνησης Ενάντια στις Ιδιωτικïπïιήσεις ανα-

κïίνωσε ï επικεæαλής της πρïσωρινής ïργανωτικής επιτρï-πής, Θέµïς ∆ηµητρίïυ, σηµειώνïντας Þτι µετά τις τελευταίεςεêελίêεις, στÞøïς δεν είναι µÞνï η υπεράσπιση τïυ δηµÞσιïυπλïύτïυ της Κύπρïυ, αλλά και ï αγώνας ενάντια στις νεïæιλε-λεύθερες πïλιτικές πïυ καταστρέæïυν παρά διïρθώνïυν τηνκατάσταση.

Η ιδρυτική συνέλευση της Κίνησης θα γίνει αύριï Πέµπτη,στï ΣυνεδριακÞ κέντρï στις 7 τï âράδυ και ï κ. ∆ηµητρίïυεκæράúïντας την πεπïίθηση Þτι η συµµετïøή θα είναι ευρείακαι Þøι µÞνï απÞ την αριστερά κάνïντας λÞγï για µια ευρεία

κïινωνική ανησυøία πïυ ïæείλει να εκæρασθεί. ΑναæερÞµενïςδε στην παρïυσία τïυ ΓΓ της ΣΗ∆ΗΚΕΚ ΠΕÃ, ΑντώνηΝεïæύτïυ στην πρïσωρινή ïργανωτική επιτρïπή είπε πωςαυτÞ τïυς κάνει πιï αισιÞδïêïυς πως έøïντας Þσï πιï πλατιάσυµµετïøή και περισσÞτερες ïργανωµένες δυνάµεις µπαίνïυνστïν αγώνα, τÞσï πιï απïτελεσµατική θα είναι η δράση τïυς.

ΣτÞøïς της κίνησης, είπε, είναι να υπερασπιστεί τïν δηµÞ-σιï πλïύτï της Κύπρïυ, τïυς Ηµικρατικïύς Ãργανισµïύς καιιδιαίτερα την Cyta, την ΑΗΚ και την Αρøή Λιµένων γιατί «πιστεύ-ει Þτι αυτές ïι ιδιωτικïπïιήσεις δεν πρïσæέρïυν καθÞλïυ στηâελτίωση της øρηµατïπιστωτικής κατάστασης τïυ νησιïύ.

∫˘Úȷ΋ 31 ª·ÚÙ›Ô˘ ÂÊ·ÚÌfi˙ÂÙ·È Ë ıÂÚÈÓ‹ ÒÚ·

Tï Υπïυργείï Εµπïρίïυ, Βιïµηøανίας και Τïυρισµïύανακïίνωσε Þτι η περίïδïς της θερινής ώρας για τï2013 θα αρøίσει στις 3 π.µ. της Κυριακής 31 Μαρτίïυ.Κατά την ώρα αυτή ïι δείκτες των ρïλïγιών θα πρέπεινα µετακινηθïύν κατά µία ώρα µπρïστά.

Η περίïδïς της θερινής ώρας θα τερµατιστεί τηνΚυριακή 27 Ãκτωâρίïυ, 2013. Ã πιï πάνω θεσµÞς εæαρ-µÞúεται σε Þλες τις øώρες της Ευρωπαϊκής Ένωσης.

20 ΜΑΡΤΙÃΥ, 2013

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ÌΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓÃΡΑ

Μεταêύ των Αυστραλών καταθετών, ïι ïπïίïι ενδεøïµέ-νως να øάσïυν øρήµατα στην Κύπρï, λÞγω της æïρïλÞγησηςτων καταθέσεων, είναι και ï ειδικÞς απεσταλµένïς τïυΓενικïύ Γραµµατέα τïυ ÃΗΕ για τï ΚυπριακÞ, ΑλεêάντερΝτάïυνερ.

à πρώην ΑυστραλÞς ΥπïυργÞς Εêωτερικών δήλωσε στααυστραλιανά µέσα ενηµέρωσης Þτι έøει πρïσωπικÞ τραπεúι-κÞ λïγαριασµÞ στην Κύπρï, αλλά αρνήθηκε να αναæέρει τïύψïς των καταθέσεών τïυ. Σηµείωσε, πάντως, Þτι θα æïρï-λïγηθεί µε 6,75%, αλλά δεν έδειøνε ιδιαιτέρως ενïøληµένïς.

“Η εναλλακτική λύση θα ήταν η πτώøευση της Τράπεúαςκαι τÞτε θα τα έøανα Þλα”, είπε ï κ. Ντάïυνερ.

Σύµæωνα µε τïν ηµερήσιï Τύπï, Αυστραλïί επενδυτέςέøïυν καταθέσεις σε κυπριακές τράπεúες συνïλικïύ ύψïυς75 εκατïµµυρίων δïλαρίων.

à γνωστÞς επιøειρηµατίας και πρώην ΠρÞεδρïς τηςΚυπριακής ΚïινÞτητας Μελâïύρνης, Στέλιïς Αγγελïδήµïυ,πïυ επισκέπτεται συøνά την Κύπρï και έøει επιøειρηµατικέςδραστηριÞτητες εδώ, δήλωσε Þτι ïι καταθέσεις Αυστραλώνσε κυπριακές τράπεúες είναι περιïρισµένες.

“Σε κανέναν δεν αρέσει να øάνει τα λεæτά τïυ, αλλά,πρïκειµένïυ να απïæύγει την πτώøευση η πατρίδα µας, θαεπιâαρυνθïύµε Þλïι µε κάπïιï κÞστïς. Για να έøει τα øρήµα-τά τïυ ένας ïµïγενής απÞ την Αυστραλία στην Κύπρï, αυτÞ

σηµαίνει Þτι δεν τα έøει και άµεση ανάγκη, κάτι πïυ σηµαίνειπως µπïρεί να αντέêει µια µικρή θυσία για την πατρίδα”, είπεï κ. Αγγελïδήµïυ.

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Παρά την ïικïνïµική κρίση η αλυσίδα καταστηµά-των Public έøει σøέδια επέκτασης στην Κύπρï. Έøειπρïγραµµατιστεί ήδη η επέκταση των καταστηµάτων µεένα ακÞµα κατάστηµα στη Λευκωσία και ένα στην Πάæï,µέσα στα δύï νέα Mall πïυ δηµιïυργïύνται. Σύµæωναµε τï σøέδιï, τï πρώτï θα ανïίêει µέσα στï 2013. Πïλύσύντïµα θα είναι στïν αέρα τï Public e-shop τï ïπïίïÞπως και στην Ελλάδα θα æέρει στην ïθÞνη τïυ κατα-ναλωτή øιλιάδες πρïϊÞντα και σύγκριση τιµών µε τïAmazon. ΕκτÞς απ’ αυτά, µέσα στα πλάνα των PublicΚύπρïυ είναι και η δηµιïυργία νέας ιστïσελίδας, Þπïυï καταναλωτής θα µπïρεί µε εύκïλη πρÞσâαση να âρί-σκει Þ,τι øρειάúεται τï λεγÞµενï Public e-shop.

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Στην αγïρά γης στην περιïøή Ìλώρακα- Πάæïς ένα-ντι 1 εκ. ευρώ πρïέâη η Tsokkos Hotels. Σύµæωνα µεανακïίνωση της εταιρείας, τï τεµάøιï γης συνïρεύει µεγη πïυ ήδη κατέøει η εταιρεία και στην ïπïία είναι σεεêέλιêη η ανέγερση τïυ êενïδïøείïυ πέντε αστέρων µετην ïνïµασία King Evelthon Beach Hotel & Resort.Ùπως τïνίúεται, η γη θα αêιïπïιηθεί για ανάπτυêη σεσøέση µε τις συνήθεις δραστηριÞτητες τïυ ïµίλïυ στïντïυριστικÞ τïµέα. Η γη αγïράστηκε απÞ τïν ∆ηµητράκηΦακïντή σε καθαρά εµπïρική âάση. Τï τίµηµα αγïράςνα σηµειωθεί έøει ήδη απïπληρωθεί.

“Κακή απÞæαση”, πïυ υπïνïµεύει τï τραπεúικÞ σύστη-µα της ΕΕ, øαρακτήρισε τï ∆ιεθνές ÌρηµατïπιστωτικÞΙνστιτïύτï (IIF) τï æÞρï επί των τραπεúικών καταθέσεωνπïυ επιâλήθηκε στην Κύπρï ως µέρïς µιας διεθνïύς διάσω-σης της øώρας.

“Πιστεύïυµε Þτι είναι πïλύ λυπηρÞ τï γεγïνÞς Þτι ïιηγέτες της παγκÞσµιας ïικïνïµίας, πïυ περιλαµâάνïυν τηντρÞικα και την ηγεσία τïυ Γιïύρïγκρïυπ, πήραν µια κακήαπÞæαση”, είπε στï ΓαλλικÞ Πρακτïρείï Ειδήσεων ï ανώτε-ρïς αêιωµατïύøïς τïυ IFF Hung Tran.

“ΑκÞµα κι αν η Κύπρïς είναι µια µικρή øώρα, ï τρÞπïς

πïυ ïι ηγέτες της Ευρώπης και της τρÞικας αντιµετώπισαντï πρÞâληµα, έθεσαν ένα πïλύ κακÞ πρïηγïύµενï... υπïµÞ-νευσαν την ιερÞτητα των ασæαλισµένων καταθέσεων», είπε.

«Η úηµιά æαίνεται να έøει γίνει” και η απÞæαση, πïυ ανα-κïινώθηκε τï Σαââατïκύριακï, παραâίασε την εντïλή τηςΕυρωπαϊκής Ένωσης για ελάøιστη εγγύηση στις τραπεúικέςκαταθέσεις στην ΕΕ των “27”, είπε ï κ. Tran, ï πρώτïς ανα-πληρωτής διευθύνων σύµâïυλïς τïυ IIF, τï ïπïίï εκπρïσω-πεί πάνω απÞ 450 øρηµατïπιστωτικά ιδρύµατα σε περισσÞτε-ρες απÞ 70 øώρες.

“Και αυτÞ υπïνïµεύει την αêιïπιστία ενÞς τέτïιïυ

συστήµατïς εγγυήσεων των καταθέσεων στï µέλλïν”, καθι-στώντας πιï δύσκïλη τη øρήση ενÞς τέτïιïυ εργαλείïυ γιασταθερïπïίηση τïυ τραπεúικïύ πανικïύ και της τραπεúικήςκρίσης, πρÞσθεσε.

“Η αρøή αυτή θα πρέπει να ενισøυθεί και να απïκαταστα-θεί µε κάπïιï τρÞπï”, σηµείωσε.

à κ. Tran σηµείωσε Þτι τï σøέδιï της Κύπρïυ είøε ήδηαρνητικÞ αντίκτυπï στις øρηµατïπιστωτικές αγïρές καιτρïæïδÞτησε τις ανησυøίες για νέα πρïâλήµατα στις τρά-πεúες και σε άλλες αδύναµες øώρες µέλη της ΕυρωπαϊκήςΈνωσης.

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πïυ ïρίúει η Συνθήκη της ΛισαâÞνας αλλά και για να δηµιïυρ-γηθεί øώρïς για τïυς ευρωâïυλευτές της Κρïατίας, 12 κράτηµέλη θα øάσïυν απÞ µία έδρα, ενώ κανένα δε θα κερδίσει επι-πλέïν έδρα, σύµæωνα µε τη λύση πïυ υιïθετήθηκε απÞ τï ΕΚτην Τετάρτη. Αυτή η πρÞταση τώρα θα περάσει στα øέρια τωναρøηγών κρατών και κυâερνήσεων στï ΕυρωπαϊκÞ Συµâïύλιï,τï ïπïίï θα πρέπει να λάâει ïµÞæωνη απÞæαση στην ψηæïæï-ρία πïυ θα διεêάγει.

Τï Κïινïâïύλιï αυτή τη στιγµή αριθµεί 754 ευρωâïυλευ-τές. Με την ένταêή της αυτή τη øρïνιά η Κρïατία θα καταλάâει12 έδρες, αυêάνïντας τï συνïλικÞ αριθµÞ των ευρωâïυλευτών

σε 766. Για να επιτευøθεί η εναρµÞνιση µε τï ανώτατï Þριï των751 εδρών, Þπως ïρίúει η Συνθήκη της ΛισαâÞνας, πρέπει νααæαιρεθïύν 15 έδρες.

Η πρïτεινÞµενη λύση συνεπάγεται πως 12 κράτη µέλη- ηΑυστρία, τï Βέλγιï, η Βïυλγαρία, η Κρïατία, η Τσεøία, η Ελλάδα,η Ãυγγαρία, η Ιρλανδία, η Λετïνία, η Λιθïυανία, η Πïρτïγαλίακαι η Ρïυµανία- θα øάσïυν απÞ µία έδρα στις επερøÞµενεςευρωεκλïγές.

Ãι υπïλειπÞµενες τρεις θέσεις θα πρέπει να πρïέλθïυναπÞ τη Γερµανία, τï µερίδιï της ïπïίας πρέπει να µειωθεί απÞ99 έδρες σε 96, τï µέγιστï επιτρεπÞµενï Þριï απÞ τη Συνθήκητης ΛισαâÞνας.

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διαρκή αναâάθµιση των υπηρεσιών της, ενισøύ-ει την ïµάδα της µε νέï Chief Operating Officer,τïν κ. Anwar Soussa.

Η πïλυετής εµπειρία τïυ κ. Soussa σε ανά-λïγες θέσεις σε ισøυρïύς διεθνείς τηλεπικïι-νωνιακïύς õίλïυς θα συµâάλει σηµαντικά στηπρïσπάθεια της εταιρείας να πρïσæέρει ακÞµηπερισσÞτερα στïυς πελάτες της.

Πρïηγïύµενïι σταθµïί στη σταδιïδρïµίατïυ ήταν η Digicel και η Orascom Telecom -Vimpelcom Þπïυ κατείøε θέση Εµπïρικïύ∆ιευθυντή σε øώρες της Ωκεανίας και της Αæρικής.

Παράλληλα, έøει εργαστεί στην κεντρική διïίκηση τηςOrascom ως µέρïς της ïµάδας επïπτείας των εργασιών τïυ

õίλïυ σε Þλïν τïν κÞσµï, συµπεριλαµâανïµένηςτης Wind Ελλάς και Wind Ιταλίας.

Συνïλικά, ï κ. Soussa συµπληρώνει περισσÞ-τερα απÞ 14 øρÞνια εµπειρίας στη ΒÞρεια Αµερική,την Ευρώπη, τη Μέση Ανατïλή, την Αæρική και τïνΕιρηνικÞ.

à Anwar Soussa διαθέτει Master of Science inAdministration απÞ τï Concordia University τïυMontreal και Bachelor of Science απÞ τï DereeCollege στην Ελλάδα. Μιλά ελληνικά, αγγλικά,αραâικά και γαλλικά.

Με την πρïσθήκη τïυ κ. Soussa στην ïµάδατης, η MTN θα âελτιώσει την καθηµερινή λειτïυργία τïυµηøανισµïύ εêυπηρέτησης των καταναλωτών, τÞσï στïδίκτυï καταστηµάτων, Þσï και τηλεæωνικά και online.

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ρισµïύ και της ελληνικής ïικïνïµίας επιâεâαίωσε η Aegean,µε την παρïυσίαση τïυ νέïυ πρïγράµµατïς δρïµïλïγίων τηςεταιρίας για τï 2013, πïυ περιλαµâάνει την πρïσθήκη 29 νέωντακτικών δρïµïλïγίων εêωτερικïύ απÞ συνïλικά 12 αερïδρÞ-µια εκ των ïπïίων τα 8 είναι πλέïν âάσεις της.

Τα απευθείας διεθνή δρïµïλÞγια της εταιρείας πραγµατï-πïιïύνται απÞ 8 πλέïν âάσεις (Αθήνα, Θεσσαλïνίκη, Ηράκλειï,ΡÞδïς, Κέρκυρα, Κως, Καλαµάτα, Λάρνακα), µε την Κω και την

Καλαµάτα να απïτελïύν âάσεις πïυ εγκαινιάúïνται τï 2013,ενώ παράλληλα τï Ηράκλειï και η ΡÞδïς ενισøύïνται µε αυêη-µένï αριθµÞ αερïσκαæών. Παράλληλα δραστηριÞτητα απευ-θείας πτήσεων εêωτερικïύ θα υπάρøει απÞ Ìανιά,Αλεêανδρïύπïλη, ·άκυνθï και Σκιάθï. ÌαρακτηριστικÞ τηςπρïσπάθειας για την ενίσøυση των τïυριστικών περιïøών είναιτï γεγïνÞς Þτι απÞ τα 158 συνïλικά δρïµïλÞγια τακτικών καιναυλωµένων πτήσεων εêωτερικïύ τα 130 εκτελïύνται απÞπεριæερειακά αερïδρÞµια της øώρας. Παράλληλα Þπως ανα-

κïινώθηκε ήδη ενισøύεται και τï δίκτυï εêωτερικïύ τωνΑθηνών µε øωρητικÞτητα πïυ λÞγï µειωµένης úήτησης απε-λευθερώνεται απÞ τï εσωτερικÞ.

Πιï συγκεκριµένα, στï δίκτυï πτήσεων της Aegean για τï2013 πρïστίθενται 5 νέες øώρες (Ãυκρανία, Ελâετία, Πïλωνία,Σïυηδία, Αúερµπαϊτúάν) και 10 διεθνείς πρïïρισµïί (Γενεύη,Μάντσεστερ, Λυών, ΣτïκøÞλµη, Κίεâï, Μπακïύ, Βερïλίνï,Νυρεµâέργη, ΑνÞâερï, Βαρσïâία) ενώ αυêάνïνται σηµαντικάτα δρïµïλÞγια.

From technological advances tointertwined economics, the 21st century isbringing people around the world closertogether and presents a multitude ofopportunities for collaboration. Last weekoffered us another example of this.

Japan announced its plan to join talks onthe TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership), anAmerican-led free trade agreement. 11countries are currently involved innegotiating the terms of the partnershipwhich seeks to boost trade services andfurther economic ties between members. InJapan, the pact has stirred up heated politicaldebate, but Prime Minister Shinzo Abe isadamant that participation is vital. Andrightly so. This trade deal is a goldenopportunity for a country whose strugglingeconomy is crying out for decisive action.

For Prime Minister Abe, failure to seizethe day would result in Japan, currently theworld’s third largest economy, fallingbehind. He argues, “Emerging countries inAsia are shifting to an open economy oneafter another. If Japan alone remains aninward-looking economy, there would be nochance for growth.”

Opposition in the country is largelystemming from the agricultural sector,concerned about how it will suffer fromreduced tariffs on farm produce. Farmersand fisherman are expected to take a JPY 3trln hit if all tariffs are abolishedunconditionally. Abe has pledged to addressthe issue and defend Japan’s interests, butdeclined to say whether he would withdrawfrom discussions if he does not succeed insafeguarding the future of the agriculturalindustry. Arguably the country’s influenceover any agreement is likely to be heavilyreduced given its late entrance intonegotiations.

That said, better late than never. The TPPwould undoubtedly create several prospectsfor growth and affect an overall positiveimpact on the country’s citizens andbusinesses, covering a breadth of sectorsfrom energy to the automobile industry.Japan was hurt in 2012 by a decline indemand for exports from key markets andshould now capitalize on the TPP as avaluable and timely boost to its economicmomentum. The country will benefit fromduty-free trade and investment within theregion. Analysts predict that Japanese GDPwill rise 0.66% as a direct result. Being open-minded to international cooperation andopening up its economy could play assignificant a role in the country’s financialturnaround as its policy of monetarystimulus.

Should Japan join the TPP, alongside the

US, Canada, Mexico, Australia, New Zealand,Chile, Singapore, Peru, Vietnam, Malaysiaand Brunei, the group would account for anestimated near 40% of total global economicoutput. This would afford a significantadvantage to the region and members of thepact. Increased trade, with reduced tariffs,could also result in lower costs for the 650mln citizens of the countries partaking.

China, which has long been trying topromote a free trade area with Japan andSouth Korea, could lose out from Japan’sintention to join a US-led agreement. It maydecide to bite the bullet in the long-term andfollow Japan in joining the regionaleconomic bloc.

Meanwhile, the participating countrieshope to finalise their agreement by the end of

2013. The US seems to be the strongestwinner here as it seeks to solidify theinternational status of the US dollar, but allinvolved will profit. The mutual benefits ofcollaboration justify any sacrifices thatcertain sectors will be required to make asthe different countries compromise. In thisinstance at least, it really is the taking partthat counts.

www.bbinary.com

The euro hovered around three-monthlows versus the dollar on Tuesday on newsthat Cyprus’s parliament was unlikely toapprove a controversial bailout plan that hassparked fears about the stability of euro zonefinancial institutions.

The common currency dropped 0.1%beneath late U.S. levels to trade at $1.2948after government spokesman ChristosStylianides told state radio that the planneeded to secure a financial rescue wasunlikely to be approved, and that EU partnersshould offer some additional help.

However, the euro held above the three-month low of $1.2882 hit on Monday afterrecouping some of its losses in late U.S.trade, as euro zone ministers urged Cyprusto let smaller savers escape a proposed levyon bank deposits.

Earlier on Tuesday, Asian investors had

been relieved by the apparent lack of fallouton other euro zone countries, as an uptick inSpanish and Italian debt yields appeared to becontained.

“Looking at European and U.S. marketsyesterday, the injury seems to be shallow.

But it would be premature to say it will healin just two days,” said a trader.

The common currency now faces anuphill battle to close the yawning gap toFriday’s close of $1.3076, although there isstrong support seen at its 200-day movingaverage of $1.2875. “If the plan is voteddown, there will surely be fresh selling in the

euro,” said Tohru Sasaki, the head of Japanrates and FX research at JPMorgan ChaseBank. Sasaki also noted that euro looks vul-nerable as its bounce overnight was smallerthan its rebound after the fall triggered by aGreek election last May, when investors were

shocked by the ruling coalition failing to wina majority.

Analysts at Barclays say they see limitedrisk of contagion to other countries. “We con-sider that the scope of potential contagion toother peripheral countries in terms of depositoutflows and sovereign debt is considerably

more limited than if such a decision wouldhave been taken in previous programs.Specifically, we consider the likelihood of abank run in other periphery countries to belimited, including in Greece,” they wrote.

The radical move on deposits had limitedimpact on Spanish and Italian debt onMonday. Their yield rose but stayed wellwithin their recent ranges.

The dollar rose 0.4% on the day to 95.53yen as investors covered their short bets onthe greenback. “If the dollar-yen manages tobreak above the top of its 93-96 yen rangethen it could sail pretty easily to 98. If youlook at the corporate price index on a pur-chasing price parity basis then 97.5 lookslike a buffer,” said Kato of Mizuho CorporateBank. “Of course, if Cyprus blows up, risksentiment would spike, meaning it might bedifficult for it to get there.”

Euro at 3-month lows against dollar, as Cyprus worries weigh

Disclaimer: The commentary appearing on this page is for indication purposes only and Eurivex does not take any responsibility for investment action taken. Nothing in this report should be considered to constitute investment advice. It is not intended, and should not be considered, as an offer, invitation, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any of the financial instruments described herein. Trading on leverage is very risky and may lead to losses.

Japan says TPP is vital

President, Banc De Binary

By Oren Laurent

March 20 - 26, 2013

20 | WORLD MARKETS | financialmirror.com

FFOORREEXX CCOOMMMMEENNTTAARRYY && TTEECCHHNNIICCAALL AANNAALLYYSSIISSFFOORREEXX CCOOMMMMEENNTTAARRYY && TTEECCHHNNIICCAALL AANNAALLYYSSIISS

Deciperhing Mixed Messages

Date Country Detail Forecast PreviousMAR 20 EUR Current Account due 12.00noon 7.9B 13.9BMAR 20 GBP Unemployment Rate due 11.30am 7.80% 7.80%MAR 20 GBP Claimant Count Change due 11.30am -5.2k -12.5kMAR 20 US FOMC statement and Economic Projections due 8.00pm - -MAR 20 US Federal Funds Rate target due 8/00pm <0.25% <0.25%

MAR 21 CHF Swiss Trade Balance in Swiss franc 1.87B 2.13BMAR 21 EUR Flash Services PMI due 11.00am 48.2 47.3MAR 21 GBP Retail Sales M/M due 11.30am 0.50% -0.60%MAR 21 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing Requirement due 11.30am 8.4B -9.9BMAR 21 US Weekly Unemployment Claims due 3.30pm 343k 332k

MAR 21 US Existing Home Sales due 4.00pm 5.03M 4.92M

MAR 22 EUR German Ifo Business Climate due 11.00am 107.8 107.4Indicated times are Cyprus time Source: Eurivex

Weekly Economic Calendar

Harry Truman used to say “please bring me a one-handedeconomist” while Winston Churchill would joke that the pur-pose of economists was to make astrologers look good. We havea lot of sympathy for both views, but that’s mostly because try-ing to decipher what is going on in an economy is not an easytask at the best of times (and given the uncharted policy seas,right now is not the best of time).

Consider the four basic angles that most macro-analystsstudy in order to confirm, or negate, their theories: economicdata, market signals, bottom-up data from company reportsand visits, and policy. The reality is that at any one time, ana-lysts can get very mixed messages from these different angles.This is where the less reliable than an astrologist, “one handedeconomist” comes in.

Take the present situation. A number of market prices arepointing towards a significant deflationary risk. Copper priceshave tanked by nearly –10% in the past few weeks, aluminumby some –7% since early February, while steel contracts quotedin London and New York are tumbling off the charts. JGB bondyields have been pushed down from 0.8% to 0.64%. Oil has alsofelt a little “top-heavy.” The AUD, CAD and other commoditycurrencies have been much weaker against the US dollar and

euro than one might have expected given the yen devaluation.Bank shares are back to underperforming in most of euroland,in Korea, in China etc. But most alarming of all is possibly thepast few months’ simultaneous drop in gold and the yen. In thepast, whenever the yen and gold have fallen by more than -10%simultaneously over a six month period, US Treasuries alwaysheaded higher. But against these signals, one can point to thefact that equity markets continue to make new cycle highs; sonothing “deflationary” there.

The confusion does not stop at market prices. On the eco-nomic data front, surveys in northern Europe and in the UnitedStates have by and large been positive. But the real data com-ing out of France and the Netherlands has been dismal, not tosay anything of Italy or Spain. In China, the debate rages onwhether the current upturn in activity is the result of an expan-sion in leverage aimed at “goosing” the data, or the result of agenuine quickening of the animal spirits linked to the politicaltransition. Still, on a global basis, OECD leading indicatorsseem to be pointing towards an improving global economic sit-uation. And this positive momentum is, for the most part, con-firmed when talking with companies.

But given the fact that almost every policy changeannounced in recent months has been particularly knuckle-headed, equity markets are still having to climb a major “wall ofworry” to make their recent new highs. This despite a) tax hikesin the US on 77% of households, b) a massive jump in real-estate stamp duties in Hong Kong, c) Singapore raising prop-

erty taxes and taxes on foreign workers, d) France hiking taxesby stealth (taxes on social benefits like “allocations families,”taxes on students, debate still raging on 75% tax…) even as theranks of the unemployed have swelled by 500,000 in the pastsix months, e) the EU passing some very silly rules on bonus-es, f) Germany pressing ahead with extremely costly, but verygreen, energy policies, g) China cracking down on real estatewhen asset markets are still very fragile, bank balance sheets area shambles, and local authorities are struggling to financethemselves. It is hard to think of one policy implemented any-where in the world since the start of 2013 that has been partic-ularly “financial market” friendly. So the ability of equity mar-kets to brush off this bad news is most impressive.

However, at the risk of sounding like the kind of economistTruman loathed, we should note that in the past month, theequity market advance has come with a large outperformanceof non-cyclical sectors such as staples or healthcare; even in“reflating Japan”! This is somewhat disconcerting as, given thevaluation differences, cyclicals should logically be leading themarket higher on the hopes of better economic news—as wasthe case until a month ago. But now, the leadership of the stockmarket is looking very similar to the leaders in early 2011 andearly 2012. Once again, we seem to be getting conflicting sig-nals between markets and economic data, begging the questionof whether the recent outperformance of non-cyclicals, com-bined with all the “deflationary” signals mentioned above, areinviting us to be a little less aggressive in our asset allocation?

Disclaimer: This information may not be construed as advice and in particular not as investment, legal ortax advice. Depending on your particular circumstances you must obtain advice from your respective pro-fessional advisors. Investment involves risk. The value of investments may go down as well as up. Past per-formance is no guarantee for future performance. Investments in foreign currencies are subject to exchangerate fluctuations. Marcuard Cyprus Ltd is regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission(CySec) under License no. 131/11.www.marcuardheritage.com

Marcuard’s Market update by GaveKal Research

March 20 - 26, 2013

financialmirror.com | MARKETS | 21

As we hit new highs on US stock markets,some investors are getting vertigo. It does nothelp that we are approaching the time of theyear when equity markets have moved intorisk-off mode in each of the past three years.But perhaps we should not automaticallyassume the worst.

New highs, like those recently seen on theDow Jones Industrial Average, do not neces-sarily imply the show is about to end. Considerthe major highs of the Standard & Poor’s 500since the 1920s:

- The high of 1929 was not exceeded until1954. Once the S&P did reach a new high in1954, this was followed by a 12-year bull mar-ket almost without interruption.

- The next major high was in early 1966.This was broken in early 1967 and a two-yearbull market followed.

- The next major high was in late 1968. Thiswas broken in early 1972 and a 15 month bullmarket followed.

- After that, the next major high was in early1973. We did not get anywhere near this leveluntil mid-1980. The stock market then rose

another 17% before the end of the year.- The high of late 1980 was broken in

November 1982. This was followed by a five-year bull market. The high of August 1987 wasbroken in mid-1989 and that set the stage fora ten-year bull market.

Thus, one could argue that history suggeststhat a decisive break of the 2007 high (definedas 1,600 on the S&P 500) is more likely to pavethe way for more gains than trigger a big cor-rection

But moving beyond technicals, and nar-rowing our scope to more recent trading con-ditions, there are some notable differenceswith the post-crisis environment.

Global growth is on a firmer footing. In theUS, the strength in housing is starting tospread to the rest of the economy and unem-ployment is steadily improving. The US 4Q12flow of funds data published yesterday showedthe biggest jump in household quarterly liabil-ities since 2008, yet because assets are risingfaster, credit expansion is not inflating leverageratios. The scenario of a global growth recov-ery got further confirmation this morning, as

China published a much better-than-expected22% jump in exports in February (even afteradjusting for the Chinese lunar new yeareffect).

Perhaps the more intriguing differences canbe found in the market movements: over thepast couple of months, we have observed thebreakdown of a number of relationships. Itused to be that every risk-on period was associ-ated with a weakening US dollar. But this yearthe MSCI World index is up by 6.5% and yet thetrade-weighted USD has rallied by 3%. Anotherpeculiarity can be found with the Australiandollar. Between 2009 and 2012, the AUD had a95% correlation with equity markets—this yearthe correlation has dropped to –50%.

Meanwhile, the correlation between theEuropean STOXX index and the World MSCI(which has been around 90% since 2008) hasnow declined to a pre-Lehman low of 75%.

It is still early in the game and it is proba-bly too soon to say “it’s different this time”.All we are saying is that there may be lessreason to fear signs of exuberance than inthe recent past.

A new high’s not always the last EDF to build UKnuke reactors

EDF won approval from Britain’s energysecretary to build the country’s first newnuclear station in almost 20 years.

The French company, which has dominat-ed Britain’s nuclear sector since taking overBritish Energy in 2009, plans to make itsinvestment decision once it has reachedagreement with the UK government on aguaranteed electricity price for the new proj-ect. Davey said that the multi-billion-poundproject at Hinkley Point in Somerset wouldgenerate enough electricity to power theequivalent of 5 mln households, making itone of the largest power stations in Britain.

“This is a big step forward on a criticalenergy infrastructure scheme,” said KatjaHall, chief policy director at Britain’s busi-ness lobby group CBI.

“A balanced energy mix is essential inorder to ensure secure, low-carbon andaffordable supply in the future, and newnuclear is a key part of this.”

Britain is counting on new nuclear powerin its energy mix for future decades, unlikeGermany or Switzerland which have decidedto phase out nuclear power after Japan’sFukushima crisis.

The Hinkley Point C project in Somersetwill house two European Pressurised WaterReactors (EPRs) with a combined installedcapacity of 3,260 MW, adjacent to an existingnuclear station also run by the company.

Wall St. climbs, supported by housingWall Street edged up on Monday after two sessions of

declines, buoyed by signs the U.S. housing market recov-ery is gathering pace and as investors shrugged off devel-opments in Cyprus that may lead the country into default.

Data showed that groundbreaking to build new U.S.homes climbed in February and new permits for con-struction rose to their highest since 2008, in signs thenation’s housing market recovery was gathering steam.

After adjusting over the past two sessions, “the marketcould have more strength to trade to higher levels, newrecords,” said Kent Engelke, chief economic strategist atVirginia-based Capitol Securities Management, which hasabout $4 bln under management.

A weekend announcement that Cyprus would breakwith previous practice and impose a levy on bank depositsas part of a 10 bln euro EU bailout prompted some tur-moil on global financial markets on Monday. But the gov-ernment proposed to spare small savers from the tax in abid to win parliamentary backing for an internationalbailout and avoid default and a banking collapse.

The Dow Jones industrial average was up 44.81 points,or 0.31%, at 14,496.87. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Indexwas up 3.83 points, or 0.25%, at 1,555.93. The NasdaqComposite Index was up 9.99 points, or 0.31%, at3,247.58. The Dow ended a ten-day winning streak onFriday as investors booked profits.

March 20 - 26, 2013

22 | WORLD MARKETS | financialmirror.com

Morgan Stanley raisesS&P, US$ targets

RBS races ahead with Direct Line sell-offRoyal Bank of Scotland has sold off a further stake in UK

insurer Direct Line for 507 mln pounds, taking advantage of abuoyant market to cut its holding well ahead of an end-of-yearregulatory deadline.

The state-backed bank, which sold 34.72 of Direct Line in itsstock market float in October, said it sold a further 17% stake toinstitutional investors for 201 pence per share, 20% up on theflotation price in October.

The sale will have a minimal impact on RBS’s capital posi-tion, as it has exchanged an asset that was on its books for 216pper share for cash, but comes at a time when banks rescued inthe financial crisis are under pressure from the UK governmentand regulators to bolster their capital and restructure to focuson their core domestic banking businesses.

The Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee (FPC),which looks out for trouble spots in the financial system, hassaid banks need to strengthen their capital, a message whichanalysts say is seen as being directed particularly to the part-nationalised lenders RBS and Lloyds Banking Group.

The BoE said banks need more capital to cushion them-selves against losses from loans, compensation bills for mis-

selling to customers and regulatory fines. Banks should be able to address capital shortfalls by restruc-

turings, shrinking their balance sheets, using debt that canconvert into capital and other methods, but there was a risk theFPC sees RBS in particular as short of capital, said Investec ana-lyst Ian Gordon.

“The FPC looks less willing to look through to what balancesheets will look like in the future,” he said.

Lloyds, which is 39% state-owned, last week sold a 20%stake in wealth manager St. James’s Place to boost its capital byabout 600 mln pounds and its core capital ratio by around 20basis points.

Prime Minister David Cameron last month called on RBS,which is 82%-owned by the taxpayer, to speed up its restructur-ing, despite the fact that CEO Stephen Hester has alreadyshrunk its assets by 900 bln pounds.

The government is keen to start selling shares in RBS in2014, a year before the next general election, but the bank’sshares are still more than a third below the price the govern-ment paid for them under its 45 bln-pound rescue during thebanking crisis.

Hester last month said he planned to partially sell the U.S.business Citizens, saying he had “accommodated” concernsheld by the regulator.

The lender will also further shrink its investment bank,which should improve its capital ratio by reducing its assets,and will sell or float a portfolio of 315 UK branches.

The sale of the branches and Direct Line are required by theEuropean Commission as the EU’s competition regulator inreturn for allowing the bank’s bailout by the UK governmentfollowing the 2008 financial crisis.

RBS had to sell at least half of Direct Line by the end of thisyear, and the latest sale cuts its holding to 48.%.

It has to sell the remainder by the end of 2014.RBS had agreed to a 180-day “lock-up” not to sell more

shares at the time of last year’s IPO until April 9, but that waswaived by the bookrunners. It said it will not sell any moreshares for 180 days unless it gets consent again from thebookrunners. The sale was handled by Goldman Sachs, MorganStanley and UBS.

The RBS sale comes just before Direct Line’s younger rivalesure, is due to make its own London market debut on March 22.

Ecclestone sees new opportunity for F1 IPOFormula One’s postponed flotation could

be re-launched later this year, according to thesport’s commercial supremo BernieEcclestone.

“Last year I thought that the markets werenot ready, but now it is getting more likelythat there is an opportunity,” the 82-year-oldBritish billionaire told the officialformula1.com website.

“In the next three months or so somebodywill have to decide yes or no,” he added whenasked about a possible float towards the end ofthe year.

Ecclestone told Reuters last November thatany initial public offering (IPO) was unlikelybefore 2014.

The owners of Formula One had beenpreparing a $3 bln IPO in Singapore last Junebut decided to hold off as global marketstumbled and investor mood soured afterFacebook’s plunge in value following itsflotation.

Private equity firm CVC, the sport’s largestshareholder, has a stake of around 35.5%.

Some 30% of the business is owned byinvestment groups Blackrock, Waddell &

Reed, Norges Bank and the Texas Teachers’pension fund.

This year’s Formula One championshipwill have 19 races, one less than last year dueto the postponement of a planned grand prixin New Jersey and the disappearance of theEuropean Grand Prix in Valencia, Spain.

The German Grand Prix at theNuerburgring was confirmed only at the endof January amid prolonged wrangling overhosting fees while a slot reserved for anunidentified European race in July has goneunfilled.

Ecclestone suggested Europe could seefewer races in future with other countries,such as Thailand and Mexico, seeking slots.

“The fact is that we are a worldchampionship, not a European championship,so maybe we are going to lose a couple ofEuropean races because we are going to otherparts of the world,” he said.

“There are lots of countries knocking at ourdoor and it is a case of finding the right placesfor Formula One.”

Russia is due to make its debut next yearwith a race in Winter Olympics venue Sochi.

Morgan Stanley has made severalchanges on its strategy team, with newoutlooks in currency and index levels,according to an analysis by 24/7 WallStreet.

The big change is in the S&P 500,although it was behind the curve there.Other changes seen were in the U.K.pound and the Japanese yen.

The big change is in the outlook forthe S&P 500, which Morgan Stanleylifted to 1,600 over the next year from1,434 previously offered. That beingsaid, that is with the S&P down by 7.50to 1,553.25. In short, this was a catch-up strategy call. The firm also raised itsS&P earnings per share forecast to$103 from $99 and said that equitieshave a better risk-reward than credit atthe current levels.

The bank expects big changes in theU.K. pound and the yen, which are cur-rently at $1.5117 and 95.025, respec-tively. The pound sterling, or Britishpound, could fall to $1.48 from a priortarget of $1.62 by the middle of 2013,and it lowered its target to $1.43 from$1.57 by year-end. The bank also raisedits dollar target to 105 Japanese yenfrom 100 yen by year-end, and that issaid to be the most aggressive of themoney-center projections.

Another call was seen in the U.K. andJapanese stock markets, with MorganStanley lifting the FTSE 100 target to7,000 from 6,500. Note that the indexwas roughly 6,490 going into that call.The Japan Topix target was raised to1,270 from 1,200, versus close to 1,100before today’s drop.

March 20 - 26, 2013

financialmirror.com | WORLD MARKETS | 23

Political will holds up European state asset salesl Govts own trillions in assets, but privatisations rarely popular

With Europe’s stock indexes recovering to their highestlevels in recent weeks since before Lehman Brothers col-lapsed in 2008, privatisations could be a boon to the region’sdebt-laden governments, but while markets are no longerweak, politicians are still not willing.

Countries across Europe, including Italy and France, aresitting on trillions of dollars worth of assets, and the sale pro-ceeds could help limit unpopular spending cuts or tax rises,if politics were that simple.

“The politics are quite relevant because there can be sig-nificant public backlash. Pursuing that kind of agenda, evenwhen markets are good, is not necessarily attractive political-ly,” said a financial industry source with experience of pri-vatisations.

“We don’t expect the flood gates to suddenly open.”Witness Bulgaria, mired in political crisis and facing May

elections. Last week, it extended the deadline to sell part ofits railway network after public pressure to halt the deal andreview the privatisation programme.

Most privatisation activity in Europe over the last year hasbeen at the point of a gun, as in Portugal and Greece, whichagreed to sales as part of European Union and IMF bailoutpackages, with Cyprus next in line to offload about 4 blneuros in government-owned services in telecoms, power andports, or at least part of the vast properties these quangoshave on their books.

Lisbon has already met its target to raise 5.5 bln euros bythe end of 2013 and plans further sales this year, includingthe profitable national postal service CTT and the cargo unitof national railway company Comboios de Portugal.

In Italy, where pro-market think-tank Istituto BrunoLeoni estimates the state holds assets worth 1.9 trln euros,an inconclusive election last month has left government inlimbo and taken potential sales off the agenda for now.

The Istituto says around 136 bln euros’ worth of Italianassets could realistically be sold, when things such as historicbuildings are excluded.

Before the election, Silvio Berlusconi’s People of Freedomparty had proposed a big sale of state-owned assets. TheDemocratic Party (PD), which led the centre-left bloc thatwon the lower house but not the senate, had less extensiveprivatisation plans.

Selling some of Italy’s biggest holdings, energy groupsENI and Enel, could prove politically off-limits. In October,Economy Minister Vittorio Grilli said that in order to guaran-tee energy supplies it would not be wise for the governmentto reduce its stakes in either.

France owns around 55 bln euros’ worth of stakes in list-ed companies, including 84% of energy group EDF, butsocialist French President Francois Hollande is not expectedto favour asset sales, despite admitting France will fall short

of its deficit-cutting targetthis year.

“You have got some gov-ernments which are not typi-cally nationally in favour ofprivatisations and would pre-fer to retain their assets notjust for value reasons but justfor national identity rea-sons,” said the finance indus-try source.

On the whole, bank stakesare considered the one excep-tion, bankers and advisorssaid, with most countrieskeen to get rid of stakes theyreluctantly took on duringthe financial crisis.

FAMILY SILVEREven for those governments more comfortable with pri-

vatisation, the time it takes to prepare a company and theeconomic backdrop across Europe make it unlikely to be abumper year for state sales.

While stock markets have improved, many Europeaneconomies are still contracting, and while there is someinterest from buyers, bankers expect most investors willremain cautious until there is greater clarity that the eco-nomic cycle has turned.

In November, the privatisation of Italy’s third-biggestmotorway operator failed to attract any bids, while later thatmonth a planned flotation of Italian airport operator SEA wasscrapped due to lack of demand.

Greece, which has made privatisations a key part of effortsto kickstart growth in its recession-mired economy, is alsoexpected to face a struggle for buyers.

In October it cut its privatisation target to 11 bln euros bythe end of 2016, from 19 bln euros by the end of 2015, wellbelow an initial target of 50 bln euros.

It has so far raised about 2 bln euros from sales, but itsplans have been bogged down by delays and it has yet to signany major deal. It has now appointed its third privatisationchief in less than a year.

The first big privatisations are scheduled to be completedlater this year, with the state selling gambling monopolyOPAP and natural gas company DEPA.

“They are not doing it because of any popular desire, theyabsolutely have a gun to their head to sell,” said BillMegginson, Professor of Finance at the University ofOklahoma.

Politicians are also aware that selling off national assets

when their economies are depressed can too easily be char-acterised as weak and short-sighted.

Spain’s conservative government has not revived its pre-decessor’s plans to float the state lottery, the country’s mostprofitable public company, which was delayed in 2011 due tothe economic climate and political pressure.

“There is always a reluctance to sell off valuable stateassets when you are in a deep recession, especially to foreign-ers. You are selling the family silver cheap in a distressedasset sale, said Megginson, a former member of the Italiangovernment’s global advisory committee on privatisation.

The other problem with trying to take advantage of a mar-ket window is the long preparation time needed to get manystate-owned assets ready for sale.

In January, the IMF said it would extend Romania’s aiddeal by three months beyond its March deadline, as the gov-ernment needed more time to reform sprawling state-ownedenterprises.

“The governments in question ... are juggling differentagendas, and actually privatisation is complex to deliver, notleast because all too often the assets remaining in thepipeline have particular challenges,” said the financial indus-try source.

Where the economic and political situation is conducive,those governments with stakes in already listed companieswould find it easier to dispose of them quickly. Last monthPortugal took advantage of rising markets to dispose of itsremaining 4.1% of Energias de Portugal.

But examples remain exceptions for now.“You’ll see another 20 bln euro, maybe 30 bln euro pri-

vatisation year in Europe in the not too distant future,” saidMegginson. “But it is not going to be this year.”

Mainer Investment Limited has successfully listed itsbonds on the MTF Market of the Vienna Stock Exchange withthe objective of raising funds to finance ambitiousinvestment and industrial projects in Russia.

Mainer Investment Limited (Mainer) received regulatorypermission to list up to USD 500 mln of its 2012-2020 bondson the Multilateral Trading Facility (MTF) Market of theVienna Stock Exchange.

The listing commenced on March 4, 2013. The Mainerbonds (ISIN-AT0000A0ZBC1) are floating, at 6.5% spreadover 6 month LIBOR. The rate for the first period ending30th June 2013 is 7% with the accrued interest paid every sixmonths. The bonds are held at Central Securities Depository(CSD) of the Oesterreichische Kontrollbank (OeKB).

Eurivex Ltd, a Cyprus based regulated EU InvestmentFirm is the Paying and Listing Agent.

The Bond issue is backed and secured by Mainer’s ownassets.

PROJECTS IN RUSSIAMainer is using its strong balance sheet to raise funds in

order to invest in two ambitious projects in Russia, saidChairman of the Board and one of the co-founders of thecompany, Oleg Vlasov.

Dmitry Pavlov and Evgeny Korotaev are the other twoexecutive members of the Board of Mainer.

“Mainer will invest up to $400 mln from the bond proceedsto fund the purchasing equipment for reconstruction of oilrefineries of Rosneft, Russia’s leading extraction and refinementcompany,” said Vlasov, clarifying that the project is to provide

purchasing of main equipment for reconstruction of oilrefineries of Rosneft to make outgoing gasoline in higherquality level and worldwide standards Euro4, Euro5.

“The project value is in excess of $400 mln based on signedcontracts between the parties to the agreement,” said FinanceDirector Korotaev, adding that Mainer is essentially acting asthe financing company providing funds for the completion ofthe project, which may be done in stages, effectively reducingthe investment risk.

Mainer will also gradually invest $100 mln from the bondproceeds to fund the construction of an automated parkingsystem in Moscow and other Russian cities in cooperation withA-Finance Ltd and Hanwha Group (South Korea).

All investment projects undertaken by Mainer have beenprofessionally verified backed by feasibility studies proving theirfinancial viability based on firm commitments and signedagreements to achieve the intended results in the nearestfuture.

Mainer Investment bonds list on Vienna Stock Exchange

March 20 - 26, 2013

24 | WORLD MARKETS | financialmirror.com

Foreign business, investment in China more vital than ever

As China’s new leaders move to embrace foreign directinvestment to revive the global economy, market entrants andinvestors can find a path to sustainable success in China withan open mind and flexible strategy, according to PwC’s latestedition of Doing Business and Investing in China. The guide-book compiles insights and perspectives through interviewswith dozens of PwC’s leading China-based practitioners offer-ing a wealth of on-the-ground experience in dealing with topbusiness issues in China, such as sustainable supply chains,risk resilience, JV and M&A deals, and government relations.

“With the current economic situation and change in leader-ship, we’re seeing an increasing liberalisation of the China mar-ket to foreign investment,” said Frank Lyn, PwC ChinaandHong Kong Managing Partner. “As multinational business-es shift their focus from China’s ‘emerging labour pool’ to its‘emerging middle class,’ now is the time to step up your Chinastrategy and capitalise on new market reforms.”

Rapid changes in demographics and market forces areopening up exciting new sectors and opportunities that wouldnever have been believed possible a few years ago, much less

open to foreign investment. In addition, in November 2012, the18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China(CPC) sent the international community a clear and consistentmessage that the new leadership remains committed to “deep-ening reform and opening up.”

China’s simultaneous catalysts—an aging population,growing wealth, changing consumer attitudes, rising environ-mental awareness, greater mobility, urbanisation, and decreas-ing household sizes—are pushing the country through aprocess of great change. To keep up, market reform is movinga growing number of sectors and markets towards liberalisa-tion. The agenda for China’s new leadership is to encouragemore private investment and to nurture the growth of the pri-vate sector. It is also committed to opening up new marketsand sectors to foreign investment.

Meanwhile, with no signs of a pickup in the euro zone andUS economies, strong expectations are being placed on Chinafor growth opportunities. Careful planning, according to PwC’sspecialists, is key to any China strategy, particularly in entryand growth.

Grant Thornton reports 18.8% growth,record global revenues of €3.2 bln

Grant Thornton International, one of the world’s leadingorganisations of independent assurance, tax and advisoryfirms, announced record combined global revenues of US$ 4.2bln driven by 10.4% growth in US dollar terms (+18.8% inEuros, 3.2 bln) for the year ended 30 September 2012, thusleading the six largest global accounting names in reported rev-enue growth.

“It was a very good year and something we will build upon,”said ,” said Ed Nusbaum, CEO, Grant Thornton InternationalLtd. “Our continued ambition going into 2013 is to be recog-nised as the leading provider of high quality, professional serv-ices to dynamic organisations, helping them unlock theirpotential for growth.”

Grant Thornton’s workforce grew by more than 14% to35,809 people in 118 countries. Its growth was strong across allkey service lines, with assurance growing 11% to US$ 1.9 bln,tax growing 9% to US$ 0.9 bln and advisory growing 18% toUS$1.1 bln.

The group’s Asia Pacific network reported revenue growth

of 33% to US$ 579 mln, boosted by significant M&A activity inAustralia and China. India reported strong organic growth of25%.

Latin America reported revenue growth of 20% (26% in localcurrency), to US$ 146 mln. Brazil reported 38% growth. NorthAmerica growth was 7% (8% in local currency), with revenuesof US$ 1.77 bln.

European revenues grew 8% (13% in local currency) to US$1.58 bln, with Austria, Denmark, Germany, Greece and Poland,all reporting growth of 20% or more. Grant Thornton UKreported 13% growth. Middle East revenues increased 18% toUS$ 30 mln.

As regards network growth, Grant Thornton welcomed 12new member firms in Kenya, Belarus, the Baltics (Latvia,Lithuania, Estonia), Haiti, Paraguay, Gabon, Ivory Coast,Senegal, Ukraine and Togo. Additional member firm M&Aexpansion occurred in the US, China, Russia, France, Canada,Denmark, Japan, Italy, Mexico, Indonesia, Poland, Hong Kong,Portugal, Tajikistan, Colombia, UK, Australia and New Zealand.

How to sell your businessI am often asked by business owners and entrepreneurs

about the process of selling their business. Most businessowners don’t always start their business with the intention ofselling it, but it is fair to say that many do think about this astheir company grows, they are approached or when theyreach a certain stage in their life. Selling your own businesscan be one of the most rewarding elements in the business lifecycle. However, it can be challenging, emotional and com-plex. It needs to be managed carefully.

Being properly prepared is key. Planning for a sale will notonly improve your chances of selling, but it can also have adramatic impact on the price on the sale itself! Think aboutselling your house. Would you really start bringing potentialbuyers around for viewings before the walls were painted andbefore the large cracks had been covered? And, more impor-tantly, don’t you think that you could achieve a better price ifyou had applied for planning permission, even if the workhadn’t start, to demonstrate to a buyer how much better thehouse could be?

I was surprised to learn that over 80% of business ownerswho try to sell their business, actually fail. With that in mindI decided to partner with industry leading expert Paul Hermanto launch Bluebox Corporate Finance Group. The aim is tostart working with business owners earlier on their journey toexit to ensure that businesses are thoroughly prepared at thetime they are “presented” for sale.

There are a number of things that you can do to ensurethat your business is properly prepared for sale, but here aresome of my top tips:

Think about your potential buyers: Long before you putyour business up for sale, you need to consider who is likely

to be interested in buying it. Will it be a competitor, an over-seas buyer, or someone working with a similar customerbase? The reality is that each buyer will be looking for some-thing different so start to think about what is attractive to awide range of buyers at an early stage as it is likely to pay div-idends.

Presentation of the “opportunity map”: Buyers do notpay for what has happened in the past. Yes, they may be inter-ested in the trends that are evidenced through historic trad-ing, but the reality is that any price that they will pay will bedriven by what they believe the business can achieve in thefuture. It is why the presentation of your growth opportuni-

ties, or the “Opportunity map” as we call it at Bluebox, is soimportant.

Review key value drivers: Buyers will “value” your busi-ness in a number of different ways. Most will look at the levelof your profitability, but most will also be driven by other met-rics; the number of long-standing customers, the turnover indifferent areas of the business, the split of business in differ-ent territories. Make sure that you understand what thesevalue drivers are as they will all be key to improving the pricethat someone will pay.

Management team planning: Make sure that the manage-ment team you are working with are aligned to future suc-cess, especially if there are members of that team that are crit-ical to the success of the business. A buyer will want to ensurethat the team is able to support the business going forwardand it may be that some share options are used to not onlyincentivise the team, but also to improve the price that youachieve.

Prepare for due diligence: Due diligence is a necessaryevil for most sale processes. It is the time during which abuyer takes a very close look at all of the key aspects of yourbusiness. Key to a successful sale is making sure that you areprepared, well in advance. As well as ensuring that your doc-uments are properly collated, you should be careful to ensurethat the documents and picture that you present do not haveany holes in them that may give rise to a dreaded “price chip”.

Yahoo CEO Mayer gets$1.1 mln bonus after 6 months on the job

According to a regulatory filing by Yahoo, its CEOMarissa Mayer got a $1.12 mln bonus, as part of acompensation package she got when she came to theSilicon Valley Internet giant.

It was based on serving a half of a year. But, as hasbeen previously reported, Mayer has an annual salary of$1 mln and is eligible for a $2 mln annual bonus,based on meeting certain performance goals set by itsboard, according to All Things Digital.

In addition, she has gotten numerous stock andoptions compensation, worth $56 mln, including $14mln to make up for the loss of earnings when she leftGoogle, where she was a top exec for many years. Thereare also other possible bonuses, depending on results.

The million-dollar payment is probably consideredpretty much a bargain by investors, since the shares ofYahoo have risen close to 50% since she arrived. That’sbeen based largely on hopes Mayer can turn thecompany around and on the actual stellar performanceof its Alibaba Group stake in China.

CFO Ken Goldman, who joined in October, was noteligible for a bonus in 2012, but was awarded adiscretionary one of $100,000 nonetheless. He is alsoeligible for a 90% bonus in 2013, based on a $600,000annual salary.

By James CaanCEO of Hamilton Bradshaw, a UK-based venture capital and private equity

NBG says path to Fairfax deal hits roadblockThe National Bank of Greece said that Fairfax Financial

Holdings Ltd’s interest in taking part in the bank’s recapitalisa-tion had ebbed because the Canadian investment fund wantedchanges to the terms that were beyond NBG’s control.

The country’s biggest lender said in a bourse filing thatFairfax had expressed an interest in up to 1.5 bln euros, whichamounts to 10% of a capital raising to increase the bank’s sol-vency to levels required by the central bank.

“The expression of interest remained at an initial phasebecause Fairfax asked for changes in the framework of therecapitalisation that are beyond National Bank’s control,” NBGsaid in the filing.

The bank had said last week that Fairfax, controlled byinvestment guru Prem Watsa, was interested in acquiring astake in it by taking part in an upcoming share offering.

Paul Rivett, Fairfax’s vice president for operations, said thecompany did not comment on specific investments, but he saidFairfax has an interest in recapitalisations in Europe. Fairfaxtook a 9% stake in Bank of Ireland in 2011.

“We’ve done this kind of thing in Ireland and it’s worked outvery well for both the Bank of Ireland and the economy inIreland,” he told Reuters, referring to a 9% stake in the Bank ofIreland Fairfax purchased in 2011.

“I think that’s a good model for other places in Europe sowe’re continuing to look for opportunities to do the samething.”

Greece’s top four lenders will issue new shares by the end ofApril to replenish their capital after the losses they suffered inthe debt crisis from government bond writedowns andimpaired loans.

The four banks - NBG, Eurobank, Alpha and Piraeus -together need 27.5 bln euros in fresh capital to bring their CoreTier 1 capital adequacy ratios to 9%.

Under the recapitalisation framework agreed with interna-tional lenders, the banks will issue new common shares andcontingent convertible bonds or CoCos to raise the needed cap-ital, most of which will be provided by a state support fund.

NBG took over competitor Eurobank in February. Greece’scentral bank has estimated the two lenders’ combined capitalneed at almost 16 bln euros.

March 20 - 26, 2013

financialmirror.com | GREECE | 25

OTE extends bid deadline for GlobulGreek telecoms operator OTE has extended by a month

the deadline for bids for its Bulgarian unit Globul, expectedto fetch some 700 mln euros, two sources familiar with theprocess said.

Turk Telekom, mobile phone operator Turkcell andNorway’s Telenor, as well as Deutsche Telekom, whichalready has a 40% stake in OTE, have expressed interest inGlobul, sources have said.

They were expected to file binding offers by March 18but OTE has extended the timeframe as both the companyand the bidders needed more time to prepare legal docu-ments.

“The deadline has been pushed back by a month untilApril 18,” a second source said.

OTE announced plans to sell Globul, Bulgaria’s second-biggest mobile operator, last year as part of its efforts to refi-

nance 1.65 bln euros of debt by early 2014.Earlier this month, OTE Chief Executive Michael

Tsamaz said OTE might decide not to sell, after it secured700 mln euros through a bond issue and sold its satelliteunit Hellas SAT for 208 mln euros.

The bond issue covered a large part of OTE’s debt repay-ment obligations for this year, easing its liquidity strains tothe extent the company may cope with its debt even with-out having to sell Globul. Globul accounts for about 7% ofOTE’s sales and about 9% of earnings before interest, tax,depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA). Globul’s EBITDAmargin for 2012 was about 36%, slightly higher than 35%for the entire group.

In Bulgaria, Globul competes with Telekom AustriaMobiltel and Vivacom, recently acquired by a Bulgarianbanker and Russia’s VTB Bank.

OPAP stands firmwith 4Q results

Balkan gaming giant OPAP has highlighted its resilientperformance in revenue terms with a single digit drop in rev-enues in 2012 despite the weak economic environment anda slower rate of decline of group earnings before taxes due toefficient risk management and additional cost savings.

In a conference call that followed the release of 4Q12results last week, the company said it expects parliamentaryapproval of the Hellenic State Lotteries acquisition and therestoration of the tax-free bracket for net wins below EUR100.

As regards the unusually low Stihima payout ratio in4Q12, the management said that this was a trend in thewhole sports betting industry. Meanwhile, the initial plan fora 10-year IT contract has been reduced to a maximum of fiveyears with the option to terminate it in the third year (plus 6months for negotiations plus 18 months to convert to thenew technology supplier). OPAP will pay a fixed annual fee,which has not been agreed yet with Intralot, the selectedgaming supplier.

“We confirm our positive stance on the stock and we willupward revise our P&L forecasts and target price followingthe detailed presentation of the company’s strategy in rela-tion to the implementation of the new games as well as therestoration of a tax-free bracket for small winners’ prizes,”said Dimitris Birbos, analyst at the Investment Bank ofGreece, a Laiki Bank Group subsidiary.

With the stock trading at 6.76 euros, OPAP’s market capis estimated at 2.11 bln.

Frigoglass does better in E. Europe, Asia

Frigoglass reported its 4Q 2012 financial results whichwere below market estimates on earnings before tax and netincome level. Group sales increased by 22% YoY to EUR142.4 mln, while EBITDA dropped by 31% YoY to EUR 11.4mln.

The company posted net losses of EUR 21 mln from mar-ginal net income of EUR 590,000 mln in the fourth quarterof 2011.

Adjusting for EUR 15 mln restructuring costs, adjustednet loss was EUR 6 mln.

“We were expecting sales, EBITDA and net income of EUR136 mln, 13.2 mln and -1.64 mln, respectively,” said VassilisRoumantzis, analyst at the Investment bank of Greece, aLaiki Bank Group subsidiary.

Regarding the cooling division, sales increased by 18%YoY to EUR 102.8 mln driven by a rebound in EasternEurope and continued growth in Asia and Africa. On theother hand, the division’s EBITDA retreated by 63% YoY toEUR 3.7 mln impacted by a programme of reducing invento-ries through discounted sales and low capacity utilisationrates in Europe.

Regarding the Glass division, sales jumped by 34% YoY toEUR 39.6 mln, while EBITDA increased by 20% YoY to EUR3.66 mln.

Motor Oil meets 4Qmarket estimates

Motor Oil said its 4Q 2012 financial results were in linewith market estimates but below consensus. Excluding theinventory effect, the refiner reported “clean” group EBITDAof EUR 49 mln (-6% YoY) and “clean” net income of EUR 2.8mln (-48% YoY).

On an annual basis, the company reported “clean” EBIT-DA of EUR 303.6 mln (-5% YoY) and “clean” net income ofEUR 104.6 mln (-17% YoY). The company said it will proposea dividend of 30c a share.

“In terms of operating performance, Motor Oil’s “clean”refining margin in 4Q retreated to USD 5.2/bbl from USD6.5/bbl in 3Q 2012, USD 7.85/bbl in 2Q 2012 and 7.6/bbl in1Q 2012. Refinery sales volume remained at very high levelsincreasing by 12.3% YoY to 2.65 mln tons, while tradingadded to sales volume 367 kt (+22% YoY),” explained VassilisRoumantzis, analyst at the Investment Bank of Greece, aLaiki Bank Group subsidiary.

On an annual basis, the company achieved record refinerysales volume of 10.25 mln tons and total sales volume of11.65 mln tons, while production was up 8.8% to 10.22 mlntons. Group net debt at the end of FY12 stood at EUR 987mln from EUR 1.045 bln at the end of 9M 2012 and EUR 1.18bln at the end of 2011.

“All in all, the 4Q results reflected the weak refining mar-gin environment. On the other hand, the company contin-ued the deleveraging process. Going forward, although therecovery of refining margins since the beginning of the yearindicates a material improvement in performance in 1Q2013, the uncertain outlook for refining margins and scopefor further decline of domestic demand prompts us to retainour 2013 estimates which stand 15% below consensus,”added Roumantzis.

CSE ΟΑΣΗΣ Number Nominal Market Book Value Price to Profit/(Loss) 9M 9M Profit/(Loss) P/E ratio Earnings Dividend Dividend Last Price % Change

CODE Shares Value Cap. Per Share Book Value 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 Per Per Yield High Low Close 31/12/2012 since('000) euro ('000) euro Times EUR ('000) EUR ('000) EUR ('000) EUR ('000) Share Share % EUR EUR EUR EUR 31/12/2012

OASIS Kωδ. Aριθµός Aξία Kεφαλ. Λογιστική Tιµή προς Κέρδη µετά Kέρδη Kέρδη Κέρδη µετά Results 2012 2011/12 Aνώτατο Kατώτατο Kλείσιµο Tιµή Ποσ. Μετ.µετοχών EUR EUR αξία λογιστ. αξ. φορολ. 2011 2012 φορολ. Cents Cents 15-03-13 31/12/12 31/12/2012

Index performanceCSE General Index 124.29 92.66 102.07 114.86 -11.14FTSE/CySE 20 47.75 37.08 38.21 44.40 -13.94FTSE/XA & XAK Banking 188.86 103.28 102.77 168.87 -39.14MAIN MARKETMAIN MARKET INDEX 2011 9M '11 9M '12 2012 Cents Cents % 113.87 83.34 92.65 104.69 -11.50BANK OF CYPRUS BOCY ΤΡΚΥ 1 795 141 1.00 373 389 1.24 0.17 -1 371 000 -792 593 -210 956 0 n/a -76.37 0.278 0.185 0.208 0.251 -17.13CYPRUS POPULAR BANK CPB ΛΑΙΚ 4 065 482 0.10 182 947 0.25 0.18 -3 650 380 -291 493 -1 671 495 0 n/a -89.79 0.047 0.040 0.045 0.044 2.27HELLENIC BANK HB ΕΛΗΤ 619 689 0.43 103 488 0.78 0.21 -100 658 -73 081 219 -23 440 n/a -3.78 0.177 0.157 0.167 0.175 -4.57LOGICOM LOG ΛΟΤΖ 74 080 0.35 20 742 0.81 0.35 3 585 3 024 3 026 3 173 6.54 4.28 2.50 8.93 0.300 0.265 0.280 0.263 6.46A. TSOKKOS HOTELS TSH ΤΣΟΚ 246 214 0.35 10 587 0.54 0.08 -6 894 -1 527 109 -8 443 n/a -3.43 0.048 0.044 0.043 0.045 -4.44LOUIS LTD LUI ΛΟΥΗ 460 547 0.17 7 829 0.27 0.06 -82 674 -4 830 -8 489 -30 442 n/a -6.61 0.019 0.017 0.017 0.018 -5.56SECTOR TOTAL / OΛIKO 698 983 0.65 0.17 -5 208 021 -1 160 500 -1 887 586 -59 152 0.19PARALLEL MARKET

PARALLEL MARKET INDEX 2011 9M '11 9M '12 2012 Cents Cents % 637.17 569.68 588.47 627.38 -6.20WOOLWORTH (CYPRUS) PROP FWW ΓΟΥΛ 114 252 0.34 114 320 1.76 0.14 6 700 3 780 2 372 6 124 4.68 5.36 2.31 9.20 0.260 0.240 0.251 0.250 0.40VASSILIKO CEMENT VCW ΤΣΙΒ 71 936 0.43 31 724 3.04 0.15 -2 312 -2 992 -258 -360 n/a -0.50 1.50 3.40 0.460 0.410 0.441 0.439 0.46A&P (ANDREOU&PARASKEV.) APE ΑΝΠΑ 182 725 0.17 29 784 0.28 0.58 4 059 -575 n/a -0.31 0.195 0.160 0.163 0.183 -10.93ERMES DEPARTMENT STORES ERME ΕΡΜΕ 175 000 0.34 19 250 0.48 0.23 197 287 -505 1 324 14.54 0.76 2.10 19.09 0.124 0.108 0.110 0.115 -4.35LAIKI CAPITAL PUBLIC CO LI ΛΕΠΕ 282 213 0.27 16 368 0.26 0.22 -1 734 67 -3 539 -34 500 n/a -12.22 0.061 0.054 0.058 0.058 0.00K. ATHIENITIS CONTR. - DEV. ACD ΑΘΗΕ 13 416 0.35 8 989 4.69 0.14 3 250 3 181 2.83 23.71 1.050 0.612 0.670 1.050 -36.19G.A.P VASSILOPOULOS GAP ΒΑΣΙ 38 750 0.17 5 038 0.30 0.43 -1 647 -50 n/a -0.13 0.130 0.130 0.130 0.130 0.00MITSIDES MIT ΜΙΤΣ 8 200 1.03 4 100 3.16 0.16 -1 046 -1 753 n/a -21.38 0.500 0.500 0.500 0.500 0.00PHIL. ANDREOU PHIL ΦΙΛΑ 45 000 0.17 4 275 0.09 1.06 -1 608 -1 071 n/a -2.38 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.00LORDOS HOTELS HOLDINGS LHH ΛΟΞΕ 35 000 0.35 3 850 1.91 0.06 702 1 012 3.80 2.89 0.110 0.100 0.110 0.100 10.00LIBERTY LIFE INSURANCE LIB ΛΙΠΕ 122 804 0.10 3 930 0.05 0.68 -3 657 -5 616 n/a -4.57 0.032 0.032 0.032 0.032 0.00LORDOS UNITED PLASTIC LPL ΛΟΡ∆ 48 006 0.35 2 688 0.53 0.11 -1 273 -3 338 n/a -6.95 0.059 0.056 0.056 0.058 -3.45SECTOR TOTAL / OΛIKO 244 316 1.38 0.33 1 631 1 142 -1 930 -35 622 2.08ALTERNATIVE MARKETALTERNATIVE INDEX 2011 9M '11 9M '12 2012 Cents Cents % 657.64 639.78 641.37 636.57 0.75A. PANAYIDES CONTRACTING APC ΑΠΑΝ 36 572 0.35 3 657 0.88 0.11 399 -350 -0.96 0.100 0.128 -21.88ALKIS HADJ. (FROU-FROU) FBI ΦΡΟΥ 98 861 0.26 15 225 0.49 0.31 1 932 1 842 1.86 0.93 6.04 0.154 0.153 0.65A.L. PROCHOICE FIN. SERV. PROP ΠΡΟΠ 158 660 0.09 1 587 0.02 0.56 -2 776 -637 -0.40 0.010 0.012 -16.67AMATHUS PUBLIC LTD ANC ΑΜΑΘ 110 358 0.35 5 408 0.49 0.10 -2 123 -1 250 -1.13 0.049 0.045 8.89ATLANTIC INSURANCE ATL ΑΤΑΣ 39 109 0.35 25 030 0.73 0.87 2 311 2 048 5.24 7.00 10.94 0.640 0.650 -1.54BLUE ISLAND FISH FARMING BLUE ΜΠΛΕ 15 438 0.17 2 239 0.80 0.18 571 432 2.80 1.20 8.28 0.145 0.180 -19.44CCC TOURIST ENT. CCCT ΣΙΤΟ 141 692 0.43 5 101 0.49 0.07 -3 532 -7 040 -4.97 0.036 0.041 -12.20CHRIS JOANNOU LTD CJ ΙΟΑΝ 10 070 0.35 242 0.42 0.06 -375 -376 -3.73 0.024 0.024 0.00CLARIDGE INVESTMENTS CLA ΚΛΑΡ 108 163 0.35 4 435 0.39 0.10 -3 942 -5 558 -5.14 0.041 0.042 -2.38CLR INVESTMENT FUND CLL ΣΛΕΠ 288 141 0.08 864 0.07 0.04 -7 733 -7 194 -2.50 0.003 0.004 -25.00CPI ENTER. DEVELOPMENT CPIH ΚΕΑΕ 24 379 0.17 7 289 0.65 0.46 -104 -52 -0.21 0.299 0.290 3.10C.T.O. PUBLIC CO CTO ΣΤΟ 208 700 0.87 7 305 0.09 0.38 -2 998 -1 245 -0.60 0.035 0.037 -5.41CYPRINT LTD. CYP ΣΑΙΠ 5 140 0.43 1 249 0.27 0.90 -652 -366 -7.12 0.243 0.270 -10.00CYPRUS CEMENT CCC ΚΕΤΣ 137 611 0.43 20 642 2.20 0.07 -4 639 -9 557 -6.94 0.150 0.153 -1.96CYPRUS FOREST IND. CFI ∆ΒΚ∆ 3 059 1.73 4 130 6.13 0.22 -4 127 -2 867 -93.72 1.350 1.490 -9.40CYPRUS TRADING CORP. CTC ΣΤΣ∆ 92 079 0.85 32 320 1.86 0.19 6 152 1 756 482 5 048 5.48 3.20 9.12 0.351 0.346 1.45CYVENTURE CAPITAL EXE ΒΕΝΤ 14 973 0.43 2 096 0.47 0.30 658 -226 -1.51 0.140 0.140 0.00DIMCO PLC DES ΝΤΙΜ 80 999 0.09 5 103 0.28 0.22 1 601 676 0.83 0.063 0.073 -13.70DISPLAY ART LTD DISP ΝΤΙΑ 13 506 0.35 743 0.29 0.19 -529 -660 -4.89 0.055 0.055 0.00ELLINAS FINANCE ELF ΕΛΛΗ 16 000 0.62 6 160 0.67 0.57 -257 -1 404 -8.78 0.385 0.385 0.00ELMA HOLDINGS ELMA ΕΛΕΠ 348 333 0.09 3 135 0.04 0.23 -6 807 -8 999 -2.58 0.009 0.009 0.00EXELIXIS INVESTMENT EXIN ΕΞΕΠ 34 000 0.29 4 692 0.32 0.43 -15 527 -5 627 -16.55 0.138 0.140 -1.43FILOKTIMATIKI PES ΦΙΛΟ 4 805 0.87 2 306 2.73 0.18 1 608 673 14.01 0.480 0.480 0.00K & G COMPLEX KG ΚΚΟΜ 100 000 0.17 10 800 0.97 0.11 5 126 -3 289 -3.29 0.45 4.17 0.108 0.108 0.00KARAOLIS GROUP KARA 22 343 0.34 335 -0.05 -0.32 -2 268 -2 698 -12.08 0.015 0.015 0.00KARKOTIS MANUFACTURING KARK ΚΑΡΚ 7 967 0.35 948 0.09 1.27 -112 -203 -2.55 0.119 0.119 0.00KEO LTD KEO ΚΕΟ 30 978 0.43 11 772 3.55 0.11 -3 948 -7 470 -24.11 0.380 0.385 -1.30KOSMOS INSURANCE COS ΚΟΣΑ 17 985 0.31 1 475 0.41 0.20 -800 -527 -2.93 0.082 0.089 -7.87KRONOS PRESS DIST. KRO ΚΡΟΝ 20 400 0.43 11 934 0.68 0.86 108 -2 852 -13.98 0.585 0.585 0.00JUPITER PORTFOLIO INV. ARI ΤΖΕΠ 62 446 0.20 4 559 0.36 0.20 -1 263 -2 408 -3.86 0.073 0.069 5.80LEPTOS CALYPSO HOTELS LCH ΛΕΠΤ 101 683 0.35 5 694 0.80 0.07 -10 490 -6 041 -5.94 0.056 0.053 5.66MALLOUPAS & PAPACOSTAS MPT ΜΑΠΑ 43 211 0.35 7 735 0.64 0.28 1 324 -1 006 -2.33 0.179 0.184 -2.72MINERVA INSURANCE MINE ΜΙΝΕ 78 415 0.17 1 019 0.10 0.13 -3 328 -1 218 -1.55 0.013 0.013 0.00MODESTOU SOUND & VISION MSV ΜΟ∆Ε 14 900 0.14 164 0.02 0.47 -337 -308 -2.07 0.011 0.011 0.00PANDORA INVESTMENTS PND ΠΑΝ∆ 424 435 0.17 31 833 0.20 0.38 -20 039 -9 844 -2.32 0.075 0.075 0.00PETROLINA HOLDINGS PHL ΛΙΝΑ 87 500 0.35 67 200 1.31 0.59 10 783 5 541 6.33 1.70 2.21 0.768 0.733 4.77PIERIDES HOLDINGS PGE ΠΙΕΡ 22 100 0.34 1 658 0.40 0.19 -868 -719 -3.25 0.075 0.075 0.00PRIMETEL PLC PTL ΠΤΕΛ 382 440 0.17 15 298 0.01 3.25 -6 356 -5 473 -1.43 0.040 0.052 -23.08PROODOS AGROS AGRO ΑΓΡΟ 3 590 1.73 5 421 3.35 0.45 73 -148 -4.12 1.510 1.510 0.00RENOS HADJIOANNOU FARMS FRH ΡΕΝΟ 297 915 0.03 298 0.04 0.03 151 -1 463 -0.49 0.001 0.001 0.00ROYAL HIGHGATE LTD ROY ΡΟΧΑ 33 000 0.17 1 650 0.12 0.43 480 -1 593 -4.83 0.050 0.050 0.00SALAMIS TOURS SAL ΣΑΛΑ 36 529 0.43 2 557 0.48 0.15 973 -3 279 -8.98 0.070 0.066 6.06SFS GROUP PUBLIC CO. SFS ΕΣΕΦ 66 520 1.00 2 727 1.59 0.03 -19 200 -19 800 -29.77 0.041 0.046 -10.87STADEMOS HOTELS SHL ΣΤΑ∆ 32 500 0.69 6 825 2.36 0.09 1 577 2 218 6.82 2.00 9.52 0.210 0.230 -8.70TOP KINISIS TRAVEL TOP ΤΟΚΙ 12 212 0.34 3 175 0.41 0.64 -891 -482 -3.95 0.260 0.260 0.00TOXOTIS INVESTMENTS COV ΤΟΕΠ 20 700 0.03 207 0.04 0.25 13 -192 -0.93 0.010 0.010 0.00UNIFAST FIN. & INV. UFI ΦΑΣΤ 9 788 0.05 196 0.11 0.18 -56 -24 -0.25 0.020 0.020 0.00VISION INTL PEOPLE GROUP VIP ΒΙΖΝ 75 000 $ 0.10 75 000 0.20 5.08 2 739 1 151 1.53 1.000 1.000 0.00SECTOR TOTAL / OΛIKO 431 433 0.81 0.45 -87 498 1 756 482 -104 816

2012

March 20 - 26, 2013

26 | CSE PRICES | financialmirror.com

CSE ΟΑΣΗΣ Number Nominal Market Book Value Price to Profit/(Loss) 9M 9M Profit/(Loss) P/E ratio Earnings Dividend Dividend Last Price % Change

CODE Shares Value Cap. Per Share Book Value 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 Per Per Yield High Low Close 31/12/2012 since('000) euro ('000) euro Times EUR ('000) EUR ('000) EUR ('000) EUR ('000) Share Share % EUR EUR EUR EUR 31/12/2012

OASIS Kωδ. Aριθµός Aξία Kεφαλ. Λογιστική Tιµή προς Κέρδη µετά Kέρδη Kέρδη Κέρδη µετά Results 2012 2011/12 Aνώτατο Kατώτατο Kλείσιµο Tιµή Ποσ. Μετ.µετοχών EUR EUR αξία λογιστ. αξ. φορολ. 2011 2012 φορολ. Cents Cents 15-03-13 31/12/12 31/12/2012

2012

EMERGING MARKET (N.E.A.) CSE Code No. of Shares Market Cap Latest price Nominal Listing(000) EUR (000) EUR Value EUR Date

CONSTANTINOU BROS PROPERTIES ΚΩΑΜ/CBAM 1 950 36 855 18.90 0.01 29/3/10CYPRUS LIMNI RESORTS & GOLF ΛΙΜΝΗ/LIMNI 300 000 297 000 0.99 0.10 29/3/10ITTL TRADE TOURIST & LEISURE ΙΤΤΛ/ITTL 100 000 75 000 0.75 0.50 06/8/10INT'L LIFE GENERAL INSURANCE SA INLE 8 057 21 834 2.71 1.00 21/7/11ORCA INVESTMENT PLC ΟΡΚΑ/ORCA 1 200 14 280 11.90 0.01 10/9/10P.C. SPLASH WATER PUBLIC CO. ΠΚΣΓ/PCSW 35 052 42 062 1.20 0.25 10/10/11WARGAMING PUBLIC CO. ΓΚ/WG 3 400 3 400 1.00 0.10 2/11/11ECHMI S.A. INVESTMENT CONSULTANTS EXMI/ΕΗΜΙ 321 1 541 4.80 1.00 10/04/12EPILEKTOS ENERGY S.A. ΕΠΙΕΝ/EPIEN 10 906 43 624 4.00 0.32 28/06/12KERVERUS IT (CYPRUS) LTD ΚΕΡΒ/KERV 1 810 2 552 1.41 1.00 29/06/12C.O. CYPRUS OPPORTUNITY ENERGY ΓΚΑΖ/GAS 8 390 13 844 1.65 0.01 17/07/12BROZOS IVY PUBLIC ΜΠΡΟ/BRO 6 500 10 010 1.54 0.20 11/09/12INTERLIFE GENERAL INSURANCE SA ΙΝΛΙ/INLI 18 568 8 356 0.45 0.59 17/10/12TOTAL 570 358

WARRANTS No. of warrants Mkt Cap Exercise Period Exercise Price Expiry Date Latest(000) (00) euro cents Close

ALKIS HADJ. FROU-FROU (WAR. 2015) 24831 25 20-30 Jun 2001-2015 173 30-06-2005 0.001AMATHUS NAVIGATION (WAR.07-2013) 17606 176 1-15 May & 1-15 Nov 07-13 20c or EUR 35c 15-11-2013 0.010TOTAL 224

EMERGING MARKET CSE Code No. of Bonds Market Cap Latest price Listing Latest

(N.E.A.) EUR EUR Date NAV

GreenTea SA GRTEA 1 040 104 000 000 100 000 8 Nov 2011 N/A

Protean Global Futures (Perpetual Notes) PGFL 650 65 000 000 100 000 1 Dec 2012 N/A

APPROVED INVESTMENTS / EΠEN∆YTIKOI OPΓAN. NAV Disc/Prem INVESTMENT INDEX 2011 9M '11 9M '12 2012 Cents Cents % 572.39 543.16 574.70 546.03 5.25ACTIBOND GROWTH FUND ACT ΑΚΕΠ 58 430 0.17 993 0.0379 -55.15 -737 4 0.01 0.017 0.017 0.00APOLLO INVESTMENT FUND APOL ΑΠΕΠ 56 147 0.27 7 355 0.2802 -53.25 -4 301 139 0.25 0.131 0.115 13.91CYTRUSTEES INV. PUBLIC CO CYTR ΣΑΕΠ 44 494 0.30 5 784 0.2682 -51.53 -10 771 -8 799 -3 229 -2 774 -6.23 0.130 0.119 9.24DEMETRA INV. PUBLIC CO. DEM ∆ΗΕΠ 200 000 0.87 52 200 0.7239 -63.95 -14 853 -2 697 -1.35 0.261 0.250 4.40DODONI PORTFOLIO DOD ∆ΩΕΠ 282 483 0.02 847 0.0070 -57.14 -6 892 -2 559 -0.91 0.003 0.004 -25.00HARVEST CAPITAL HCM ΧΑΕΠ 14 000 0.17 1 260 0.0668 34.73 -255 -22 -0.16 0.090 0.078 15.38INTERFUND INVESTMENTS INF ΙΝΕΠ 56 545 0.51 3 223 0.1709 -66.65 -9 493 -443 -0.78 0.057 0.048 19.00ISCHIS INVESTMENT ISXI ΙΣΕΠ 11 000 0.51 473 0.0630 -31.75 -86 -251 -2.28 0.043 0.043 0.00REGALLIA HOLD. & INV. REG ΡΕΕΠ 20 247 0.09 405 0.0291 -31.27 -150 -182 -0.90 0.020 0.020 0.00TRIENA INV. INCOME TINC ΤΕΕΠ 2 729 0.85 2 183 1.0430 -23.30 331 155 5.68 11.00 13.75 0.800 0.800 0.00TRIENA INV. CAPITAL TCAP ΤΚΕΠ 2 729 0.85 5 458 2.1427 -6.66 -136 -1 921 -70.39 2.000 2.000 0.00TRIENA INTERNATIONAL TINT Τ∆ΕΠ 1 364 0.85 709 0.6125 -15.10 -36 12 0.88 0.520 0.520 0.00UNIGROWTH INVESTMENTS UNI ΓΙΕΠ 13 468 0.17 3 367 0.2300 8.70 -403 -383 -2.84 0.250 0.250 0.00SECTOR TOTAL / OΛIKO 84 259 -47 782 -8 799 -3 229 -10 922 0.00SHIPPING COMPANIES SECTOR

9M '11 9M '12

SPECIAL CATEGORY / 2011 2012 AIANTAS INVESTMENTS AIAS ΑΙΕΠ 81 202 0.21 162 0.1745 -98.85 -69 -1 014 -1.25 0.002 0.002 -AD SHOPPING GALLERIES AD ΑΘΩΣ 128 936 0.17 13 023 0.06 1.68 -12 265 -12 265 -9.51 0.101 0.101 -ASTARTI DEVELOPMENT AST ΑΣΤΑ 99 925 0.35 5 496 0.02 2.50 -6 400 -6 400 -6.40 0.055 0.055 -CEILFLOOR CFL ΣΙΦΛ 5 055 0.03 207 -1.21 -0.03 -2 974 -217 -4.29 0.041 0.041 -CHARILAOS APOSTOLIDES CHAP ΧΑΡΙ 50 000 0.35 2 000 0.12 0.33 -5 512 -11 266 -22.53 0.040 0.060 -CONSTANTINOU BROS. CBH ΚΩΝΣ 160 714 0.35 12 375 -3.03 -0.03 -3 840 -1 569 -0.98 0.077 0.070 -CYPRUS AIRWAYS CAIR ΚΑΕΡ 391 155 0.086 9 779 -0.12 -0.20 -23 885 -55 832 -14.27 0.06 0.03 0.025 0.020 -D.H. CYPROTELS DHH ∆ΡΟΥ 157 138 0.17 629 -0.20 -0.02 -9 100 -9 100 -5.79 0.004 0.002 -D&M TELEMARKETING TLM ΤΕΛΕ 7 700 0.12 23 -0.05 -0.07 -243 -391 -5.08 0.003 0.003 -DOME INVESTMENTS DOME ΝΤΟ∆ 25 000 0.43 15 000 1.30 0.46 -701 -70 -0.28 1.12 1.87 0.600 0.650 -EFREMICO HOLDINGS EFR ΕΦΡΕ 11 385 0.43 285 0.086 0.29 35 35 0.31 0.025 0.020 -EMPIRE CAPITAL INV. EMP ΕΜ 47 853 0.87 29 190 0.05 12.20 -4 283 6 553 13.69 0.610 0.600 -EUROPROFIT CAPITAL ERP ΓΙΟΥ 31 344 0.09 752 0.20 0.12 -219 -2 111 -6.73 0.024 0.024 -FINIKAS AMMOCHOSTOU CONF ΚΟΕΠ 49 385 0.10 148 0.0100 -70.00 -1 465 -1 465 -2.97 0.003 0.009 -FIRSTDELOS GROUP ACS ΑΒΑΚ 72 562 0.34 7 256 0.29 0.34 -24 581 -220 -0.30 0.100 0.100 -KANIKA HOTELS KAN ΚΑΝΙ 60 250 0.35 7 833 0.67 0.19 -77 -77 n/a -0.13 0.14 0.10 0.130 0.130 -KARYES INVESTMENTS KAR ΚΑΕΠ 2 000 0.43 380 0.2229 0.85 -180 -56 -2.80 0.190 0.210 -KNOSSOS INV. KNO ΚΝΕΠ 21 827 0.17 218 0.11 0.09 87 87 0.40 0.010 0.005 -K. KYTHREOTIS HOLDINGS KYTH ΚΥΘΡ 42 450 0.17 1 910 0.45 0.10 621 -3 606 -8.49 0.045 0.045 -LASER INVESTMENT GROUP LAS ΛΕΕΠ 61 739 0.06 8 582 0.06 2.46 -10 339 -713 -1.15 0.139 0.139 -LIBRA GROUP LHG ΛΙΠΡ 189 377 0.01 379 -0.38 -0.01 -11 700 -11 700 -6.18 0.002 0.001 -L.P. TRANSBETON TRB ΤΡΑΝ 8 571 0.35 1 971 0.41 0.56 -438 -438 -5.11 0.230 0.230 -NEMESIS CONSTRUCTIONS NEM ΝΕΜΕ 67 770 0.17 14 232 0.50 0.42 2 145 35 0.05 4.00 19.05 0.210 0.210 -O.C. OPTIONS CHOICE OPT ΟΚΑΣ 46 355 0.17 417 0.004 2.25 -1 484 494 1.07 0.009 0.009 -ORPHANIDES ORF ΟΡΦΑ 80 966 0.35 1 376 1.49 0.01 -8 648 18 -17 728 -8 648 n/a -10.68 0.120 0.045 0.017 0.017 -PIPIS FARM PIPF ΠΙΠΗ 9 660 0.35 773 0.18 0.44 -1 879 -959 -9.93 0.080 0.080 -ROLANDOS ENTERPRISES ROL ΡΟΛΑ 54 166 0.17 2 925 0.28 0.20 -328 -410 -0.76 0.054 0.054 -SAFS HOLDINGS SAFS ΣΑΦΣ 70 220 0.17 70 0.000 3.33 -1 953 -450 -0.64 0.001 0.001 -SEA STAR CAPITAL SEAS ΣΕΑΣ 629 785 0.04 6 298 -0.06 -0.16 -15 879 -15 756 -2.50 0.010 0.014 -STARIO INVESTMENTS STAR ΣΤΕΠ 38 581 0.17 77 0.05 - -3 735 921 2.39 0.002 0.002 -SUPHIRE HOLDINGS SUP ΣΑΠΦ 124 009 0.09 1 240 -0.12 -0.08 -60 -60 -0.05 0.010 0.010 -USB BANK USB ΤΡΑΓ 90 499 0.57 58 824 0.43 1.51 -8 961 -824 -0.91 0.650 0.660 -SECTOR TOTAL / OΛIKO 203 831 -158 310 18 -17 728 -137 492

MARKET TOTAL / OΛIKO AΓOPAΣ 1 662 821 -5 499 980 -1 166 383 -1 909 991 -348 004 source: Eurivex Ltd.

PAT:Profit After Tax NAV: Net Asset Value Bold: Final results

EPS: Earnings per Share based on existing number of shares.

P/E: Price to Earnings ratio. Weighted P/E ratio: Calculated based on market cap weighting of profit reporting companies, Ignores weighted number of shares in circulationBook Value: According to our estimates. N/A Indicates Not Applicable, Price 31/12/2009 is the closing price or in case of New Listings the opening price. Forecasted profits are liable to change without notice and responsibility

Disclaimer: The commentary appearing on this page is for indication purposes only and Eurivex does not take any responsibility for investment action taken. Nothing in this report should be considered to constitute investment advice. It is not intended, and should not be considered, as an offer, invitation, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any of the financial instruments described herein. Trading on leverage is very risky and may lead to losses.

March 20 - 26, 2013

financialmirror.com | CSE PRICES | 27

Big gains, low valuation - why worry?

Major U.S. stock indexes have never been higher - and yetthat’s hardly scaring people.

Stocks have soared in 2013, with the Dow climbingalmost 11% to hit a series of new all-time highs while theS&P 500 has jumped 9.4%, falling just short of its all-timeclosing high after rising for 10 of the past 11 weeks. And yet,analysts for the most part see equities as fairly cheap.

The rally has slowed, however. In the last eight tradingsessions, the S&P 500 has managed a daily gain of more than0.5% just once. Questions remain about the potential impactof U.S. budget negotiations or the Federal Reserve’s plans incontinuing its massive monetary stimulus. The Fed meetsnext week.

Taken on its own, analysts see potential for more gains inthe U.S. stock market, based on metrics like earningsprospects and valuation. The forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is currently 13.5, which isabout 9% less than the October 2007 ratio of 14.8 when theS&P last hit a record.

“This shows that stocks are cheaper than they were at thetime of the last high, and at the same time, alternative assetslike bonds are much more expensive,” said Paul Zemsky,head of asset allocation at ING Investment Management inNew York, who helps oversee $170 bln. “We are at record lev-els, but you need to look at stocks in the right context, andin that context, they’re not expensive at all.”

The S&P 500’s earnings yield - a reverse of the P/E ratio -currently stands at 7.1%, compared with 6.41% for the BofAMerrill Lynch US High Yield Index. That’s an anomaly in themarkets - the earnings yield has generally been lower than abenchmark junk-bond yield because it measures the risk ofowning the highest-quality stocks versus the expected returnon the lowest-quality bonds.

The current P/E ratio is also below the historic average of14.8, according to Thomson Reuters data dating back to1968. The S&P 500 would need to rise to about 1,647 tobecome in line with the historic average - about 5.6% above

current levels, according to Standard & Poor’s.Interest rates remain near record lows while dividends are

growing, another way that stocks are outshining bonds.In the most recent quarter, the average dividend yield for

S&P 500 companies was 2.19%, more than the 1.89% yield inthe fourth quarter of 2007, the period of the last market peak,according to Standard & Poor’s. In 2012, 403 S&P 500 com-ponents paid a dividend, the highest number since 1998.

In contrast, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note currentlyyields 2%, so the dividend yield on the S&P 500 would paymore than the bond, without even factoring in potential pricegrowth.

WHERE SHOULD STOCKS BE?

The S&P 500 is also trading well below its intrinsic value,another metric of earnings-based valuation that estimateswhere a security should trade, based on its expected growthtrajectory over the next decade or more.

The index is seen as having a price to intrinsic value ratioof 0.85, according to Thomson Reuters StarMine, whichmeans it would have to rise 15% to be in line with its earn-ings growth trajectory. More than two-thirds of companiesare below their intrinsic value, including some of the biggest.

Apple Inc, which has tumbled16.6% this year, is 28.2% under itsintrinsic value, based on its closingprice on Friday, while Exxon MobilCorp is 23.3% under and Bank ofAmerica Corp is 53.3% under itsintrinsic value.

Other companies show signs ofbeing overbought. Google Inc , whichhas jumped about 15% so far thisyear, is about 16% higher than intrin-sic valuation. Amazon.com Inc is 85percent above its intrinsic valuationof $39.17.

“You need to be selective. Whileon the whole, we’re in a constructivemarket supported by dividends andearnings, some companies have prob-ably seen peak levels already,” said

John Carey, a portfolio manager at Pioneer InvestmentManagement in Boston, which has about $200 bln in assets.

The market’s gains this year have come on accommoda-tive monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and strongcorporate results, two factors that investors don’t see goingaway any time soon.

The Federal Reserve’s interest-rate-setting committeemeets on Tuesday and Wednesday, with the statement set forrelease on Wednesday afternoon. Despite calls from some ofthe board’s more hawkish members to reduce asset purchas-es, the Fed is expected to continue on its current path.

Recent data - ranging from retail sales and manufacturingto employment - has shown the economy is picking up somemomentum. But the high U.S. unemployment rate of 7.7%gives the policy committee room to keep buying $85 bln amonth in bonds to keep interest rates low.

And while the stock market’s two previous peaks were fol-lowed by recessions stemming from the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000 and the 2008 credit crisis, there is noapparent equivalent today.

“I don’t see anything that looks like a speculative bubble,and there’s no sign of the euphoria that marks the end of abull market,” said Ken Fisher, who oversees $46 bln at FisherInvestments in Woodside, California.

March 20 - 26, 2013

28 | BACK PAGE | financialmirror.com