financial analysis of an energy company

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UNIVERSITY OF STRATHCLYDE DEPARTMENT OF ACCOUNTING & FINANCE MSC FINANCE (6TH INTAKE PT) PROJECT TITLE: “COMPANY FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND VALUATION: THE CASE OF FORTUNE OIL PLC” RESEARCH PROJECT NO: TWO NAME: MARTIN NASUZWA KITUNDU REGISTRATION NUMBER: 200652717 Submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirement for the degree of MSc Finance LECTURER IN CHARGE: PROFESSOR A. MARSHALL 0

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Page 1: Financial Analysis of an Energy Company

UNIVERSITY OF STRATHCLYDE

DEPARTMENT OF ACCOUNTING & FINANCE

MSC FINANCE

(6TH INTAKE PT)

PROJECT TITLE: “COMPANY FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

AND VALUATION: THE CASE OF FORTUNE OIL PLC”

RESEARCH PROJECT NO: TWO

NAME: MARTIN NASUZWA KITUNDU

REGISTRATION NUMBER: 200652717

Submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirement for the degree of MSc Finance

LECTURER IN CHARGE: PROFESSOR A. MARSHALL

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DECLARATION

This is to declare that this project is submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the

degree in Masters of Science in Finance offered by the University of Strathclyde, and accord

with the university regulations for the programme as narrated in the university calendar. I declare

that this document embodies the results of my own work. For the purposes of avoiding the

plagiarism, I have made due acknowledgement of the work of others.

Signed----------------------Martin Nasuzwa Kitundu---------------------------------------------

Date------------------------18TH July, 2010 -----------------------------------------------

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

This project would not have been possible without the help and support of a number of

individuals who have been involved in one way or the other.

First, I would like to acknowledge the contributions of those individuals who reviewed my work

at various stages. Many thanks should go to Dr. S. R. Mohamed , Dr. J. Miranda, Dr. Cairo, Dr.

Mnzava (from IFM), Prof. A. Marshal, Prof. J. R. Davies and Barry Koch (from Strathclyde) to

mention just few for their moral and material support. I would also like to pay special thanks to

Barbara for maintaining my continuous communication with Strathclyde.

Since it is not possible to thank all people for their assistance received, those whose names do

not appear in this list should count themselves included in this appreciation. All productive

assistance in this dissertation is the results of their contribution but all errors and mistakes are

solely mine.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

DECLARATION.............................................................................................................................ii

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT..............................................................................................................iii

LIST OF TABLES..........................................................................................................................vi

LIST OF FIGURES.......................................................................................................................vii

ABBREVIATIONS......................................................................................................................viii

ABSTRACT...................................................................................................................................ix

CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION..............................................................................................1

1.1 OVERVIEW..............................................................................................................................1

1.2 FORTUNE OIL PLC: A BRIEF BACKGROUND..................................................................2

1.2.1 Historical Background............................................................................................................2

1.2.2 Fortune Oil’s Strategy.............................................................................................................2

1.2.3 Structure of the Company.......................................................................................................3

1.2.4 Recent Trading Development.................................................................................................4

1.2.5 Financial Accounts and Reporting Standards.........................................................................4

1.2.6 The Company’s Treasury Risk Management.........................................................................5

1.3 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND VALUATION APPROACH................................................6

CHAPTER TWO: FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE AND POSITION OF THE COMPANY......8

2.1 INTRODUCTION.....................................................................................................................8

2.2 FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS..........................................................................8

2.2.1 Overview.................................................................................................................................8

2.2.2 Financial Performance Analysis of Fortune Oil Plc...............................................................9

2.2.3 Limitations on Using Ratios in Financial Analysis..............................................................26

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2.3 CAPITAL STRUCTURE ANALYSIS...................................................................................27

2.3.1 Overview...............................................................................................................................27

2.3.2 The Miller and Modigliani Irrelevance Theory....................................................................28

2.3.3 Capital Structure: The Trade-off Theory..............................................................................28

2.3.4 The Pecking Order Theory...................................................................................................28

2.3.5 Fortune Oil Plc’s Capital Structure.......................................................................................29

CHAPTER THREE: VALUATION OF THE COMPANY..........................................................31

3.1 OVERVIEW............................................................................................................................31

3.2 VALUATION MODELS........................................................................................................31

3.2.1 Dividend Valuation Models..................................................................................................31

3.2.2 Gordon’s Growth Model.......................................................................................................34

3.2.3 Earnings Valuation Model....................................................................................................35

3.2.4 Net Assets Valuation............................................................................................................37

3.2.5 Price-Earnings Model...........................................................................................................38

3.2.6 Market Valuation Method.....................................................................................................39

CHAPTER FOUR: CONCLUSION..............................................................................................42

REFERENCES..............................................................................................................................44

APPENDIX 1: BALANCE SHEETS (2005 – 2009) – FORTUNE OIL PLC..............................45

APPENDIX 2: INCOME STATEMENTS (2005 – 2009) – FORTUNE OIL PLC......................46

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LIST OF TABLES

Table 2.1 Fortune Oil Plc’s Balance Sheet Structure (2005 – 2009)

Table 2.2 Ratio Analysis for Fortune Oil Plc

Table 2.4 Value of the Fortune Oil Plc using Dividend Valuation Models

Table 2.5 Fortune Oil’s Book Value

Table 2.6 Fortune Oil’s Price Earnings Valuation Model

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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 2.1 Logical Scheme of the Discussion of Financial Results and Analysis

Figure 2.2 Structure of Data Presentation

Figure 2.3 Financial Analysis Ratios

Figure 2.4 Changes of Main Income Statement Accounts (2005 – 2009)

Figure 2.5 Fortune Oil Plc’s Inventory Turnover

Figure 2.6 Fortune Oil Plc’s Inventory Days Comparison with Green Dragon Gas

Figure 2.7 Fortune Oil Plc’s Receivable Collection Period

Figure 2.8 Fortune Oil Plc’s Receivable Turnover Comparison with Green Dragon Gas

Figure 2.9 Fortune Oil’s Asset Turnover Comparison with Green Dragon Gas

Figure 2.10 Fortune Oil’s Debt to Equity Comparison with Green Dragon Gas

Figure 2.11 Fortune Oil Book Value Trend

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ABBREVIATIONS

HSE: Health, Safety and Environment

CBM: Coal Bed Methane

CNG: Compressed Natural Gas

LNG: Liquefied Natural Gas

FLG: Fortune Lilian Gas Company

IASB: International Accounting Standards Board

IFRS: International Financial Reporting Standards

NWC: Net Working Capital

NWC/S: Net Working Capital to Sales

GPM: Gross Profit Margin

OPM: Operating Profit Margin

NPM: Net Profit Margin

ROA: Return on Assets

ROFA: Return on Fixed Assets

ROCA: Return on Current Assets

EBIT: Earnings before Interest and Taxes

ROE: Return on Equity

ROCE: Return on Capital Employed Ratio

IT: Inventory Turnover

DI: Days in Inventory

ACP: Average Collection Period

ART: Accounts Receivable Turnover

APT: Accounts Payable Turnover

TAT: Total Assets Turnover

FAT: Fixed Assets Turnover

FL: Financial Leverage

GR: Gearing Ratio

PE: Price Earnings ratio

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ABSTRACT

The project study focuses on undertaking the financial analysis of Fortune Oil performance from

year 2005 to 2009. The trend analysis has been adopted as a bench mark for analysis and

interpretation. The Introduction Chapter shows a summary of company activities and its current

position. Chapter Two conducts a financial performance and capital structure analysis of Fortune

Oil Plc.

The study also involves looking at the prediction ratios and seeing whether the dividend policy

and company structure as well as what should be done to influence shareowner’s returns on

capital employed and investment prospects of the company. In addition, the project looks on the

strength, weakness, opportunities and threats analysis of the company and tries to recommend

what actions should be taken to resolve the problems.

The analysis evaluation is done on the view of potential investors and to provide the evaluation

of the company shares. The report issued annually by a corporation to its stockholders is

important as it provides basic financial statements, as well as management’s opinion of the past

year’s operations and the company’s future projection. It should be noted that if the management

is to sustain the company’s value; it must take benefit or the company’s strengths and correct its

weaknesses.

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CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 OVERVIEW

Business activities of a company always attract certain attention from various market participants

such as associates, investors, competitors or authorities, who are expressly or by implication

interested in its business and financial results. The third parties are able to estimate business and

financial performance by analyzing accounting statements available for public use.

Measuring business and financial performance is complex because of the many objectives of

business. Profit maximisation remains one of the key objectives of business, although the debate

around this issue has not reached any final conclusions. Balance sheets and profit/loss accounts

are the traditional and most popular means of measuring business performance. Financial

analysis serves as a primary tool for this purpose. The inherent weakness of these measures,

however, is that they fail to capture non-financial parameters such as goodwill and customer

loyalty. These parameters become more meaningful when so-called “financially sound”

companies are liquidated overnight or go out of business in due course. Proponents of accounting

based performance measures give due cognizance to non-financial parameters, but they do not

offer a measurement technique.

The main idea of financial analysis is to obtain enough of key values (the most informative

ones), that represent objective and exact financial situation within a company: its profits and

losses, structural changes in assets and liabilities, level of competitiveness, relations with debtors

and creditors. This analysis can be used both for estimation of current financial condition and for

its prediction in the nearest or more remote future.

With a historical view of assessing a company’s results, business and financial performance

engagement is an analysis of a company’s past and current business and financial performance

and compares such performance to similar sized companies within its industry providing insight

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into a company’s historical growth, profitability, debt capacity and overall liquidity. All such

factors can be important indicators of a company’s ultimate value. Using Fortune Oil Plc, this

project report analyzes the past five-year history of financial statements as well as financial

information relative to industry and geographical market in which the company operates. We use

various business performance analysis measures and calculate financial ratios (liquidity,

coverage, leverage and operating) for the company.

The basis of the comparative analysis may be affected by the nature of the business, its size,

geographic location, business practices, and other factors that affect the company’s operations. In

this study, we analyse the valuation and financial performance of Fortune Oil Plc, which is

incorporated in the UK but has an operational headquarters in Hong Kong.

1.2 FORTUNE OIL PLC: A BRIEF BACKGROUND

1.2.1 Historical Background

Fortune Oil PLC is registered in England and Wales (number 2173279, main board symbol FTO)

and is subject to UK Listing Rules and compliance regulations. The Company has its operational

headquarters in Hong Kong. Fortune Oil Plc focuses on oil and gas supply and infrastructure

projects in China. The largest shareholders in Fortune Oil are First Level Holdings Limited

(36.4%), Vitol (7.44%) the public (45.63), Kerry Holdings Limited (4.62%) and major Chinese

state-owned corporations (5.91%), plus Willmar International Limited has a 15 per cent interest

in the Company's gas business.

1.2.2 Fortune Oil’s Strategy

China is the world’s second largest energy market. Fortune Oil seeks to exploit opportunities in

the oil and gas industry as the China market develops, with a particular emphasis on the supply

of gas as a premium clean fuel. Our strategy in developing our businesses and seeking new

opportunities is:

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To become a leading integrated gas supplier in north and central China, with annual gas

sales of 1 billion cubic metres by 2012 (equivalent to 1 per cent of the projected total

domestic market); and

To develop opportunities for the supply of fuels to China, in particular exploiting our

unique position in oil products supply and terminals.

1.2.3 Structure of the Company

In 2008 the Company established Fortune Gas Investment Holdings Limited (“Fortune Gas”) as

the holding company for all of the Group’s gas operations, including both gas distribution and

coal bed methane (CBM). In November 2008 Wilmar International Limited (“Wilmar”), one of

the largest companies listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange, invested US$36 million (£22.3

million) to acquire new shares in Fortune Gas representing 15 per cent of the enlarged capital.

Fortune Gas is a Hong Kong registered company and is owned 85 per cent and controlled by

Fortune Oil. Wilmar has representation on the board of Fortune Gas.

The operations extend to production and wholesaling of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and

Compressed Natural Gas (CNG), gas pipelines, retail CNG stations and city gas supply, as well

as CBM development. The vision for Fortune Gas is to be a leading integrated gas supplier in

north and central China with gas sale to exceed 1 billion cubic metres per year by 2012 (1 per

cent of the projected market).In 2007 the Company acquired a 51 per cent controlling interest in

Henan Fortune Green Energy Development Company (“Green Energy”), which operates a LNG

and CNG production and distribution business based in Puyang, Henan Province. The remaining

49 per cent interest in Green Energy is held by the 500 employees, who have significant

expertise in LNG and CNG technology. Following the Company’s investment in Green Energy

new compressors was installed to raise the throughput of the first Puyang LNG plant and a

second parallel LNG train was commissioned in early 2009. Both trains have the capacity to

liquefy 150,000 m3/d of natural gas, and this LNG is then transported by road to over 50 cities.

In 2008 the Company established Fortune Gas Investment Holdings Limited (“Fortune Gas”) as

the holding company for all of the Group’s gas operations, including both gas distribution and

coal bed methane (CBM). Fortune Gas has a controlling interest in Fortune Liulin Gas Company

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(FLG), which is the foreign contractor in the PSC with CUCBM for the Liulin CBM block in

Shanxi Province. The PSC has recently been extended for a further two years to 29 March 2012.

The Liulin block achieved a major recognition and advancement in February 2009 when the

block was designated a State Science and Technology Significant Project under a scheme

administered by the State Council, the nation’s chief administrative authority.

In November 2009 the Company acquired the 26.1 per cent interest in FLG held by Molopo

Energy Ltd. (“Molopo”) in exchange for US$4 million cash and US$2 million in new Fortune

Oil shares. The following month the Company agreed an alliance with Arrow Energy

International Pte Ltd of Australia (“Arrow International”), wherein as a first step Arrow

International acquired a 35 per cent interest in FLG in a series of transactions which completed

after year-end following the renewal of the PSC.

1.2.4 Recent Trading Development

Fortune Oil plc announced that a conditional subscription agreement has been signed for an

investment in Fortune Gas Investments Holdings Limited (Fortune Gas), a newly created holding

company for Fortune Oil's gas business, for $72 million (GBP39 million). Wilmar International

Limited and Star Medal, a wholly owned subsidiary of Kerry Holdings Limited, have each

agreed to invest $36 million to acquire new shares in Fortune Gas representing 15% each of the

enlarged share capital of Fortune Gas. 

1.2.5 Financial Accounts and Reporting Standards

The Company prepares its financial accounts and reports in compliance with the International

Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adopted by the European Union. In this regard, the

independent auditor’s (Deloitte LLP) opinions for the accounts and reports for the year 2009 are

as follows:

“Opinion on financial statements

In our opinion the group financial statements:

give a true and fair view of the state of the group’s affairs as at 31

December 2009 and of its profit for the year then ended;

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have been properly prepared in accordance with IFRSs as adopted by the

European Union; and

Have been prepared in accordance with the requirements of the

Companies Act 2006 and Article 4 of the IAS Regulation.”

Separate opinion in relation to IFRSs as issued by the IASB

As explained in Note 1 to the group financial statements, the group in addition to complying with

its legal obligation to apply IFRSs as adopted by the European Union, has also applied IFRSs as

issued by the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB).

In our opinion the group financial statements comply with IFRSs as issued by the IASB.

Opinion on other matter prescribed by the Companies Act 2006

In our opinion the information given in the Directors’ Report for the financial year for which the

financial statements are prepared is consistent with the group financial statements.

1.2.6 The Company’s Treasury Risk Management

General Business Risks

The business of the Fortune Oil Group is focused on the distribution in mainland China of

hydrocarbon fuels with recent expansion into coal bed methane, and it is subject to a variety of

business risks. These risks have not changed since the date of the Annual Report 2008, where the

principal risks and uncertainties are detailed on pages 21 and 22.

The general business risks facing Fortune Oil's operations in China include: country risk; the

regulatory regime; relationship risks; attraction and retention of employees; speed of

development; current and future financing; uninsured risks; foreign exchange risks; liquidity

risk; commodity price risk; and health, safety and environment (HSE) risks. Specific risks

pertaining to the Group's fuel distribution business include: the level of energy demand; technical

risk; physical security; and gas availability. Specific risks and uncertainties for the Group's

upstream gas business include: general exploration, development and production risks;

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estimation of gas resources; and the work programme under the Group's Production Sharing

Contract.

Currency Risk

The functional and presentation currency of Fortune Oil Plc is pounds sterling. The functional

currencies of overseas operations are the Hong Kong dollar and Chinese renminbi. In the

accounts of individual Group companies, the Group translates foreign currency transactions into

the functional currency at the rate of exchange prevailing at the transaction date. Monetary assets

and liabilities denominated in foreign currency are translated into the functional currency at the

rate of exchange prevailing at the balance sheet date. Exchange differences arising are taken to

profit and loss.

Exchange gains or losses on monetary items receivable from or payable to a foreign operation

for which settlement is neither planned nor likely to occur, which form part of the net investment

in a foreign operation, are recognised in the translation reserve.

As at the reporting date, the assets and liabilities of overseas operations are retranslated into the

presentation currency of Fortune Oil Plc at the rate of exchange ruling at the balance sheet date

and their income statements are translated at the average exchange rate for the year. The

exchange differences arising on the retranslation are taken directly to a separate component of

equity. On disposal of a foreign operation, the cumulative amount recognised in equity relating

to that particular foreign operation shall be recognised in the income statement.

The Group has elected not to record cumulative translation differences arising prior to the

transition date as permitted by IFRS 1. In utilising this exemption, all cumulative translation

differences are deemed to be zero as at 1 January 2004 and all subsequent disposals shall exclude

any transaction differences arising prior to the date of transition.

1.3 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND VALUATION APPROACH

For a complete analysis and valuation of Fortune Oil Plc, available financial and operational data

and metrics were gathered. These were then used to derive measures and compared to

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benchmarks from similar businesses. Interpretation of the analysis accounted for differences in

markets and business models. Methodology of financial analysis includes variety of specific

instruments like ratios, indicators and coefficients suitable for their own purposes. The analysis

also implies researching of changes over time. It is true that business and financial analysis

means thorough explanation of each received result. All financial ratios in this project report

were calculated using Microsoft Excel environment, based on formulas presented herein under.

All results were gathered in summary tables as shown in the following sections and appendices.

There are many advantages of this approach such as convenience, stability and popularity of the

software and relative accessibility (or easiness of use). Additionally, special analysis templates

have been created especially for this research project. With the help of these templates, the

calculation routine has been literally reduced. Nevertheless, regardless of the amount of

calculations, all results have been grouped in the most compact resulting tables as possible and

included in the Appendices.

We mostly used secondary data in conducting the analysis on valuation and financial

performance of Fortune Oil Plc. These data were obtained through various sources including

Annual Reports and Accounts, Fortune Oil Plc’s website, London Stock Exchange website and

other financial markets trading analysis news and research websites.

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CHAPTER TWO

FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE AND POSITION OF THE COMPANY

2.1 INTRODUCTION

Company financial performance assessment is mainly conducted through the use of financial

statements. However, financial statements by themselves do not provide adequate of information

about how well a company performs year to year or in comparison to other businesses in its

industry. One of the reasons why it is difficult to make comparisons is that companies rarely

have exactly the same revenue.

Another reason is that companies have varying financing structures. Ratios and other

performance measures and techniques have been developed to make financial information

comparable from company to company. These tools form three broad categories: estimation of

operating performance, evaluation of financial performance and defining level of financial risk.

Operating performance deals with efficiency of management. In other words, it is important to

know if a company uses its assets in an efficient and profitable manner. Financial performance

deals with issues related to a company’s financial structure and ability to meet its financial

obligations. Analysis of financial risk is important to banks, suppliers, and investors. The general

objective of financial analysis is to evaluate the effectiveness in each of these areas.

2.2 FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS

2.2.1 Overview

The information contained in the main financial statements has major significance to various

interested parties who regularly need to have relative measures of the company’s business

efficiency. Financial analysis conducted for the need of third parties is external by its nature and

often called “analysis of financial statements”. The analysis of financial statements is based on

the use of ratios also known as relative values. Ratio analysis involves methods of calculating

and interpreting financial ratios to analyze and monitor the firm’s performance.

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There are as many different financial ratios as there are possible combinations of items appearing

on the balance sheet, income statement and cash flow statement, and their application is defined

from an analyst point of view. Financial management practitioners use various approaches

depending on the goal of analysis or business issue. Despite of the number of ratios, they all

cohere through their classification.

Furthermore, it is worth noting that ratio analysis is not just the calculation of a given ratio.

Ratios, alone, are not sufficient to understand a company’s past performance or to forecast future

perspectives in business. Most important is the interpretation of the ratio value. However it is not

an easy work to do and there is no single correct value for a ratio. Correct conclusion, that the

value of a particular ratio is too high, too low, or just right depends on perspective of the analyst

and on company's strategy. A financial ratio is meaningful only when it is compared with some

standard, a norm, such as an industry trend, ratio trend, or a planned management objective. This

is called benchmarking and it can be used as a measure. According to Vance (2003),

benchmarking “involves analyzing the financial statements of the best companies in an industry

and using their financial ratios as a basis for evaluation of a company’s performance.”

As a result, to make correct conclusions on ratio analysis, two types of ratio comparisons should

be made: cross-sectional approach and trend-analysing method. Cross-sectional analysis involves

comparison of different firms’ financial ratios over the same period in time. It usually concerns

two or more companies in similar lines of business. One of the most popular forms of cross-

sectional analysis compares a company's ratios to industry averages published by statistical

agencies. In trend analysis, ratios are compared over a periods, typically years. Year-to-year

comparisons can highlight trends and point up possible need for action. Trend analysis works

best with three to five years of ratios. Certainly, the most informative approach to ratio analysis

combines both cross-sectional and trend analyses. A combined view makes it possible to assess

the trend in the behaviour of the ratio in relation to the trend for the industry.

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2.2.2 Financial Performance Analysis of Fortune Oil Plc

As for financial analysis, the set of tools shown in Figure 2.1 corresponds to a sequence of

operations (or applied methods so to say) of the report. Whenever required, readers can refer to

this scheme.

Figure 2.1 Logical Scheme of the Discussion of Financial Results and Analysis

The first logical step in the analysis sequence includes studying of structure and changes in

financial reports. This allows evaluating the structure of assets and liabilities of a company

according to its balance sheet. It gives the possibility not only to estimate the capital owned or

controlled by organization, but also to allocate current and fixed assets in its structure of capital.

In addition, this method defines sources of formation of the company’s capital. Studying of

changes of profit allows answering such questions as: 1) changes of net profit for a period (both

in absolute and in relative values); 2) sources of its formation; 3) alterations in operational profit;

4) changes in tax burden. The complementary Fig.2.2 shows data presentation of the paragraph

“structure and changes in financial reports”.

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Figure 2.2 Structure of Data Presentation

Liquidity of balance sheet is a first step in measuring company’s liquidity. According to this

method, ability of assets to cover balance sheets obligations defines liquidity of a company,

which in terms of transformation into the money also corresponds to a degree of maturity of the

company’s obligations. Studying of changes and structure of balance sheets and income

statements is important, because it gives an idea about the company’s business development.

Yet, this method is very basic, as it does not go deep into details and answer only to questions

“what” and not to questions “why”. It is impossible to evaluate a company’s financial

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performance by analysing its balance sheet changes and assets structure only, as well as there is

no way of doing it by just looking at a balance sheet. Only ratio analysis is suitable.

Ratios are capable of revealing many patterns of relationship in financial reports. Four groups of

ratios have been calculated and analyzed for Fortune Oil Plc in this report: liquidity ratios,

profitability ratios, activity ratios and debt ratios (or financial leverage ratios) as shown in Fig.

2.3.

Figure 2.3 Financial Analysis Ratios

The term “analyzed period” means an interval in five years (from 2005 until 2009) that

corresponds with obtained financial reports (see Appendix 2).

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Structure and Changes in Fortune Oil Plc’s Financial Reports

Table 2.1 presents the balance sheet for Fortune Oil Plc covering the analyzed period. It provides

useful information about assets and liabilities of the company and the balance sheets structure.

Table 2.1 Fortune Oil Plc’s Balance Sheet Structure (2005 – 2009)

No. VALUE

Million GBP (£)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

1 Total Assets 70,198 64,756 114,297 228,996 219,242

1.1a Non-current Assets 50,062 49,182 77,211 137,564 143,399

1.1b In % to balance 71.32% 76% 68% 60% 65%

1.2a Current Assets 20,136 15,574 37,086 91,432 75,843

1.2b In % to balance 28.68% 24% 32% 40% 35%

2 Shareholders’ Equity and

Liabilities

2.1a Shareholders’ Equity 39,012 38,678 45,150 86,666 90,086

2.1b In % to balance 56% 60% 40% 38% 41%

2.2a Long-term Liabilities 19,188 17,119 47,976 87,133 65,480

2.2b In % to balance 27% 26% 42% 38% 30%

2.3c Current Liabilities 11,998 8,959 21,171 55,197 63,676

2.4d In % to balance 17% 14% 19% 24% 29%

In addition, it is necessary to create additional analytical table showing changes of all figures

listed in the previous table. Table 3.2 helps to visualise changes occurred with balance sheet

values during the analyzed period. This table contains such information as the following: 1)

“Δ2006”, “Δ2007”, “Δ2008”, “Δ2009”, – absolute changes for the periods; 2) “%2006 to 2005”

“%2007 to 2006” “%2008 to 2007” “%2009 to 2008” – relative changes for last period; 3)

VALUE – main balance sheet accounts.

The information gained from analysis Tables 2.1 and 2.2 allows estimating capital structure of

the balance sheets horizontally and vertically.

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Distribution of total assets (to current assets and non-current assets) can also be studied from

Table 2.1. A good proportion between fixed and current assets is required for successful business

operations. While it depends on type of activities of a company, percentage of current and non-

current assets should be equal approximately to 60-70 % of non-current assets and 30-40 % of

current assets in the total balance. Excesses of current assets may be result of wrong financial

policy.

Formation of a company’s capital can be fulfilled both at expense of its own and at borrowed

funds. For definition of financial stability and degree of dependence on loan proceeds, it is

necessary to analyze structure of liabilities of the balance sheets. In general, the less a company

owes to others, the more stable financial position it has. Table 3.1 provides useful insights on this

matter.

There is no “universal” rule regarding proportion between owned and borrowed funds a

company operates as shown in its balance sheet. However, a company whose assets are formed

from its own capital is usually considered more financially stable than a firm relying on external

finances is. With Fortune Oil Plc, we see that during the analysed period, the company’s capital

structure (a combination of shareholders equity and liabilities) was maintained at shareholders’

equity of between 40% and 60% (see Table 3.1 above), which indicate that it is financially

stable.

Analysis of Profit Changes

Analyzing of changes in the accounting reports includes studying not only balance sheets, but

also other important sources of financial information - income statements. For this paragraph,

Fortune Oil Plc income statements were transformed into reports similar to the IFRS statements.

You can compare income statements in Appendix 3.

Another important issue to mention here is the possibility of correct interpretation of financial

statements analysis results. Unfortunately, it is not easy to analyze Fortune Oil Plc income

statements. Due to their “tax nature”, these financial reports give just rough picture of what

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really happened with a company’s incomes and losses during a period. They do not answer why

these changes occurred. Only studying of internal financial accounts, records and business

documents may clarify alterations of such factors as prices, sold quantities, tax specifications,

and interest rates etc. – all that can explain changes of main income statement articles.

Financial Results of Fortune Oil Plc for the Period from 2005 to 2009

According to Table 2.3, net sales for the analyzed period increased from £9.8 billion to £ 11

billion (+11.8 %). At the same time, costs of sales changed from £ 7.6 billion to £ 8.2 billion (+7

%). Specific weight of costs in net sales reduced from 77.7% to 74.3%. Total amount of gross

profit increased in 2009 by 29.2 %.

Comparison of sales and costs change rates in 2009 indicates efficiency growth of main

operations. The base for this statement is significant increase in operating profit from £ 748

million to £ 1.6 billion or by 109 %. Sums of tax expense increased at the end of the period by

45.7 % that may be connected with growth of profit before tax on £722.2 million or by 131 %.

At the end of the analyzed period, Fortune Oil Plc gained net profit at the level of £ 905 million

(increase by 203.7 % in comparison with previous year). This means that own capital of the

company was formed from financial and economic activities. In the structure of incomes, the

greatest share was provided by profit from main operational activity that signifies normal

commercial strategy of the company. Fig.3.4 represents trends of all main income statement

accounts of Fortune Oil Plc in the analyzed period. This diagram shows certain level of

expansion in main activities of the company due to the positive tendency of net sales and costs of

sales.

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Page 26: Financial Analysis of an Energy Company

Figure 2.3 Changes of Main Income Statement Accounts (2005 – 2009)

2005 2006 2007 2008 20090.00%

20.00%40.00%60.00%80.00%

32.50%22.87% 25.10%

65.87%

10.70%

Growth in Net Sales

Growth in Net Sales

Periods

% C

han

ge

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009-50.00%

0.00%

50.00%

100.00%

29.00%-7.98%

82.33%64.42% 54.45%

Cost of Goods Sold

Cost of Goods Sold

Periods

% C

han

ge

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

-20.00%

-10.00%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

2.90%8.71%

-10.94%

0.34%

-15.27%

Growth in Gross Profits

Growth in Gross Profits

Periods

% C

han

ge

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009-50.00%

0.00%

50.00%

100.00%

33.50%

78.07%

-5.22%

72.82%

7.75%

Growth in Net Income

Growth in Net Income

Periods

% C

han

ge

Source: Developed from Financial Statements Data using Microsoft Excel

Fortune Oil Plc Ratio Analysis

This part of the report contains ratios calculated and presented. All ratios were arranged in tables

to make them easier to understand. All ratios were patterned to make easier evaluation of critical,

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Page 27: Financial Analysis of an Energy Company

negative, satisfactory and good values. It is now possible to explain methodology of this

approach. Without a doubt, the method of results visualization is intended first for the readers to

keep their attention on important findings.

Table 2.2 Ratio Analysis for Fortune Oil Plc

Annual Annual Annual Annual AnnualPeriod Period Period Period Period

Title of Ratio 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Acid Test Ratio 1.50 1.62 1.70 1.57 1.11Current Ratio 1.68 1.74 1.75 1.66 1.19 Operating Cash Flow to Net Income 1.00 1.18 (0.13) (0.43) 2.58 Liquidity Index:Receivables - Days Removed 34 146 137 218 232 Inventory - Days Removed 79 17 6 10 12 Other - Days Removed 16 22 26 21 19 Liquidity Index (Days) 19 60 33 46 46 Z Score:1.2 x (working capital / total assets) 0.14 0.12 0.17 0.19 0.07 1.4 x (retained earn / total assets) (0.36) 0.51 0.35 0.23 0.30 3.3 x (EBIT / total assets) 0.28 0.50 0.29 0.27 0.31 .6 x (market value equity / debt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 .999 x (sales / total assets) 2.04 2.71 1.92 1.59 1.84 Z Score 2.09 3.85 2.73 2.28 2.52 Receivable Turnover:Receivable Turnover 10.9 2.5 2.7 1.7 1.6 Days Required to Collect A/R 34 146 137 218 232 Inventory Turnover: Inventory Turnover 4.6 21.1 57.9 35.4 31.6 Days in Inventory 79 17 6 10 12Total Asset Turnover 2.0 2.7 1.9 1.6 1.8 Operating Assets Ratio 0.67 0.62 0.70 0.79 0.78 Gross Profit Margin 74% 81% 72% 72% 61%Operating Margin 2% 3% 3% 3% 3%Net Profit Margin 11% 20% 11% 11% 8%Direct Cost to Operating Revenues 82% 78% 85% 85% 88%Capitalization Rate / Asset Return:Capitalization Rate / Return 6.18% 10.55% 6.09% 4.84% 5.92%Return on Shareholder Equity 15% 14% 18% 8% 19%Debt to Total Assets 0.28 0.23 0.44 0.40 0.39 Debt to Common Equity 0.52 0.35 1.09 1.40 1.10 Times Interest Earned 13 21 8 7 8

Source: Developed from Financial Statements Data using A Financial Model developed in Microsoft Excel

The above just give an overview of the ratios. As it was mentioned earlier, ratios themselves do

not provide enough information without correct explanation. Therefore, ratio evaluation is the

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Page 28: Financial Analysis of an Energy Company

subject of next section. It is also a good idea to specify in which year the company had better

results.

Financial Liquidity

Calculated liquidity ratios confirm results obtained with balance sheet liquidity method discussed

above. Absolute liquidity value is associated with monetary assets available for covering

immediate liabilities. Many experts agree that the quick ratio is the most informative measure of

financial liquidity of companies. The normal value that is internationally accepted for quick ratio

is “1”. This ratio is similar to the absolute liquidity ratio and includes financial instruments

besides cash and cash equivalents. Throughout the analysed period, Fortune Oil Plc had good or

satisfactory values of this ratio. The good quick ratio values during the analyzed period most

probably have been creating a “financial cushion” for settlement of the company’s future

liabilities.

Current ratio characterizes solvency of a company in backing of immediate obligations and is

used in this thesis as main criterion for defining financial stability. During the analysed period,

Fortune Oil Plc has current ratios in the range of 1.8 – 2.5. This means that in case of a force-

majeure, the company’s current assets were able to cover all obligations immediately and even

leave 50 percent of the current assets. This is an excellent state of stable financial position.

Net working capital (NWC) characterizes amount of capital in a company’s turnover. This

indicator is free from current obligations. In other words, it consists of current assets financed

from long-term sources, which will not be used for debt settlement but only for financing of

current operations. If amount of the company’s NWC is positive, it means basic possibility of

settlement of any debts by means of current assets. Another important criterion for the NWC is

steadiness of its changes. As it can be seen from Table 3.3, net working capital of Fortune Oil

Plc, was higher than zero and sometimes had positive trend. Hence it is evaluated positively too

from point of view of increased liquidity and solvency of the company. Any potential creditor

that observes similar trends will increase its confidence in Fortune Oil Plc as a credible borrower.

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Page 29: Financial Analysis of an Energy Company

The net working capital to sales (NWC/S) ratio represents share of the most financially stable

capital in total amount of net sales. The higher it is - the better for financial stability.

Profitability

Profitability indicators allow giving performance evaluation of a company’s management by

study of how well they use corporate assets. An overall managerial performance is defined by

parity of profit, identified in various ways, with assets used for earning this profit.

Gross profit margin (GPM) shows how much money is left in revenues after accounting for the

cost of goods sold. During the analyzed period, Fortune Oil Plc had gross profit margin in the

range of 60–64%. It is high value, especially for a company operating in the tobacco sector,

which is mostly governed by legal trade restrictions. Still, there is an opinion among top-

managers that 20-30% of gross profit margin is acceptable in current economic conditions. It is

also obvious, that negative GPM means absence of any profit for company.

Operating profit margin (OPM) is associated with proportion of the company's revenues that is

left after paying for variable production costs such as wages, raw materials and so on. This value

is closely connected with capability of the company’s management to work efficiently while

keeping production costs low. The reduction of the OPM in the other years can most likely be

connected with high variable production costs.

The net profit margin (NPM) ratio tells how much profit Fortune Oil Plc made for every £.1

generated in revenue. This is comparative indicator. The year 2006 has the best performance in

terms of NPM at 20%. The year 2009 was the worst with NPM dropping down to8%.

Return on assets (ROA) and complimentary ratios Return on fixed assets (ROFA) and Return on

current assets (ROCA) are the most important profitability indicators in the thesis. They show

how effectively has been used each monetary unit involved in the business cycle i.e. how a

company’s assets were allocated for earning its profit. Fortune Oil Plc ROA ranged from 28% to

40%, which indicates good performance. The ROA ratio is logically connected with net profit

margin and assets turnover.

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Page 30: Financial Analysis of an Energy Company

Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) include all profits from operations, before interest and

income taxes are deducted. Normally, non-operating profits and non-operating expenses are not

included in the EBIT.

Return on equity (ROE) defines effectiveness of using a company’s own capital. It shows how

much money per £1 of shareholder’s equity was earned during the analyzed period. Being the

comparative indicator, there is no normal value for this ratio. Fig.3.4 provides visual

representation of these ratios.

Another important measure of profitability is the Return on capital employed ratio (ROCE). This

indicator shows how much money in the EBIT has been generated by the Net working capital

(i.e. by the most stable and financially independent sources of financing). In two years of the

analysed period, Fortune Oil Plc achieved good figures of this ratio.

Activity Ratios

Activity ratios measure a firm's ability to convert different accounts (current assets and current

liabilities) found in their balance sheets (or in internal accounting books) into cash or sales.

Companies will normally try to turn their production into cash or sales as fast as possible because

this leads to higher revenues.

Inventory turnover (IT) is used for estimation of how fast a company's stock is sold and replaced

over the period. There is no generally accepted figure for this ratio, but the main idea is to turn

inventories as fast as possible. During the analysed period, Fortune Oil Plc demonstrated good

integrity of this indicator with an average of 34 times.

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Page 31: Financial Analysis of an Energy Company

Figure 2.4 Fortune Oil Plc’s Inventory Turnover

2005 2006 2007 2008 20090.00

10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00

Inventory Turnover

Inventory Turnover - Company

Periods

Tu

rno

ve

r R

ate

Source: Ms Excel Financial Model Output

The Days in Inventory (DI) ratio is the opposite indicator for the inventory turnover. It is

measured in days. It shows how many days were needed for companies to convert their stocks

into products. Fewer days in inventories are better and conclusions are the same as with the

previous ratio.

Figure 2.5 Fortune Oil Plc’s Inventory Days Comparison with Green Dragon Gas

2005 2006 2007 2008 20090

20

40

60

80

100

Inventory Days Comparison

Days in Inventory - Green Dragon Gas

Days in Inventory - Fortune Oil

Periods

Da

ys

He

ld in

Inv

en

tory

21

Page 32: Financial Analysis of an Energy Company

Source: Ms Excel Financial Model Output

The Average Collection Period (ACP) ratio measures average number of days that company’s

customers took to pay their bills, indicating effectiveness of credit and collection policies of the

businesses. As it was mentioned earlier, the average collection period should not be exceeding 30

days. Acceptable value of this ratio for the industry is equal to one quarter (120 days) even if it is

substantially longer than thirty days. Figure 3.5 shows the analysis.

Figure 2.6 Fortune Oil Plc’s Receivable Collection Period

2005 2006 2007 2008 20090

50

100

150

200

250

Receivable Collection Comparison

Days to Collect A/R - Green Dragon Gas

Days to Collect A/R - Fortune Oil

Periods

Da

ys

to

Co

llec

t A

/R

Source: Ms Excel Financial Model Output

As Figure 2.6 indicates, Fortune Oil Plc takes relatively long time to collect its receivables and

this may not be a good sign. The reason for that includes many factors starting from poor

performance of the industry and finishing by geographical specificity such as distances between

business partners and their facilities. More than 120 days for this indicator may cause delays in

receiving payments and considerably increases risk of financial failure.

Accounts receivable turnover (ART) is connected with the average collection period ratio within

one-year business cycle. It shows how many times the studied companies collected their

22

Page 33: Financial Analysis of an Energy Company

receivables during financial period. High average collection period means slow receivables

turnover. As shown in Figure 2.7 below, Fortune Oil Plc ART averaged at 4.9 during the

analysed period.

Figure 2.7 Fortune Oil Plc’s Receivable Turnover Comparison with Green Dragon Gas

2005 2006 2007 2008 20090.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

Receivable Turnover Comparison

Receivable Turnover - Green Dragon Gas

Receivable Turnover - Fortune Oil

Periods

Tu

rno

ve

r R

ate

Source: Ms Excel Financial Model Output

The accounts payable turnover (APT) is short-term liquidity measure used to quantify rate at

which the companies paid off their suppliers. Generally, the faster company pays to its partners,

the higher financial liquidity it has. High turnover rate also indicates production development

and possible business expansion.

That is critically low for any businesses. It is required to mention here that external analysis of

assets and liabilities turnovers has approximate nature and can be substituted by studying of

accounts and books. For figures that are more precise it is necessary using of managerial

accounting data if possible.

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Page 34: Financial Analysis of an Energy Company

The Total assets turnover (TAT) measures a company’s operating efficiency by estimation of its

assets use in generating sales or revenues - the higher it is the better. It also indicates pricing

strategy: companies with low profit margins tend to have high asset turnover, while those with

high profit margins have low asset turnover. This ratio differs from industry to industry. During

the analysed period, the TAT for Fortune Oil Plc was stably above 1.5 and at an average of 2.0,

which is good for the company (see Figure 2.8).

Figure 2.8 Fortune Oil’s Asset Turnover Comparison with Green Dragon Gas

2005 2006 2007 2008 20090.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

Asset Turnover Comparison

Asset Turnover - Green Dragon GasAsset Turnover - Fortune Oil

Periods

Tu

rno

ve

r R

ate

The fixed assets turnover (FAT) ratio is similar to the previous indicator. It is narrower measure

and determines effectiveness of sales generated by investments in fixed assets. It does not

include current assets. This ratio is most likely to be useful in such capital-intensive industry as

oil and gas exploration and distribution.

Financial Leverage Ratios

Leverage indicators have mission to show degree of possible risk of business collapse in

connection with use of borrowed financial resources. Indeed, if a company does not use loan

proceeds the risk of bankruptcy is insignificant. This group of financial ratios is interesting for

existing and potential creditors of Fortune Oil Plc.

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Page 35: Financial Analysis of an Energy Company

The financial leverage (FL) ratio characterizes company’s dependencies from loans and

borrowings. The lower this ratio, the higher is risk of potential insolvency for the company.

Fortune Oil Plc can be defined to be financially stable for the analyzed period according to the

financial leverage ratios.

The debt ratio (D/A) shows share of company’s assets that is financed at the expense of loan

proceeds, irrespective of their sources. Some financial experts commend keeping this indicator at

stably at good levels. During the analyzed period, Fortune Oil Plc had good values of this ratio

although it was steadily increasing from 52% in 2005 (see Figure 2.9). And Fortune Oil had

highest debt-to-equity ratio indicates that the company is mostly financed by debt than internal

sources of finance (retained earnings).

Figure 2.9 Fortune Oil’s Debt to Equity Comparison with Green Dragon Gas

2005 2006 2007 2008 20090%

20%40%60%80%

100%120%140%160%

Debt to Equity Comparison

Debt to Equity - Industry

Debt to Equity - Fortune Oil

Periods

De

bt

to E

qu

ity

Ra

tio

The last calculated indicator in this group of leverage ratios is the gearing ratio (GR). Gearing is

a measure of financial leverage, demonstrating degree to which a firm’s activities are funded by

owner’s funds versus creditor's funds. The higher degree of leverage, the more the company is

considered risky. Fortune Oil Plc’s leverage was mostly above 50% during the analysed period,

keeping its financial risk at high levels and this is not good for the company.

25

Page 36: Financial Analysis of an Energy Company

2.2.3 Limitations on Using Ratios in Financial Analysis

Financial ratios have certain limitations in their use and are not meant to be applied as definitive

answers. They are usually used to provide additional details in the determination of the results of

financial and managerial decisions. They can provide clues to the company’s performance or

financial situation. However, on their own, they cannot explain whether performance is good or

bad. As for the external financial analysis, ratios also play a role of basic indicators, showing just

an overview of studying business entity.

Ratios have to be interpreted carefully. Gitman (2004) points out some cautions about using

ratios in financial analysis. He defines six of them:

Ratios with large deviations from the norm only indicate symptoms of a problem. It is

essential always to carry out additional analysis based on internal data to isolate the

causes of the problem. Ratio analysis just directs attention to potential weak spots. It does

not provide conclusive evidence and only shows the existence of a problem;

A single ratio does not provide enough information sufficient to judge the overall

performance of a firm. Only a group of ratios can practically play key role in it;

The ratio comparison should be made using ratios calculated with financial statements

dated at the same point in time. Otherwise, the effects of seasonality may produce

incorrect conclusions. (For example, it is especially important while comparing

agricultural companies where seasonality is crucial);

The use of audited financial statements for ratio analysis is preferable. Using an audited

financial statement guarantees a certain level of trust both for analyst and for the end-

user. If the statements have not been audited, the data contained in them may not reflect

true financial situation;

The financial data being compared should have been developed in the same way. The use

of differing accounting practices is especially relative to inventory and depreciation and

can distort the results of ratio analysis. This limitation is very important for the thesis. It

narrows the possibility for comparison of results of Russian forest product companies

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Page 37: Financial Analysis of an Energy Company

with European analogues since the analysis is performed on the different data basis. It is

true, that the differences of accounting policies may distort inter-company comparisons;

Results can be distorted by inflation, which can cause the book values of inventory and

depreciable assets to differ greatly from their true (replacement) values. Additionally,

inventory costs and depreciation write-offs can differ from their true values, thereby

distorting profits. Without adjustment, inflation tends to cause older firms (older assets)

to appear more efficient and profitable than newer firms (newer assets).

Ratio analysis is a useful tool, but a person who deals with it has to be always aware of these

limitations and make adjustments as necessary and whenever possible. First, the ratio analysis is

not just a mechanical process, as it seems to be. It involves an accurate results interpretation. For

instance, a correct conclusion about financial ratio value is impossible without analysis of

economical situation both in the industry and in the country. Knowing of environment where

studied companies operate helps to make better conclusions for an analyst.

Analysis of financial ratios can provide useful insights about company’s operations, but

preferably, it should be used together with other methods such as potential bankruptcy

prediction, liquidity of a balance sheet, evaluation of profit changes and its composition and

studying of structure of assets and liabilities.

2.3 CAPITAL STRUCTURE ANALYSIS

2.3.1 Overview

The capital structure of companies has been a focus by financial researchers for some decades

since the proposition by Miller and Modigliani (1958). As we analyse the capital structure of

Fortune Oil Plc, it is imperative that we review and apply the key methods of analysis for

company capital structure. In this regard, we review Miller and Modigliani’s irrelevance theory,

the trade-off theory and the pecking order theory. This provides a guide for analysing Fortune

Oil Plc’s capital structure.

27

Page 38: Financial Analysis of an Energy Company

2.3.2 The Miller and Modigliani Irrelevance Theory

The Modigliani–Miller capital structure irrelevance theory states that, in the absence of taxes,

bankruptcy costs, and asymmetric information, and in an efficient market, a company’s value is

unaffected by how it is financed, regardless of whether the company’s capital consists of equities

or debt, or a combination of these, or what the dividend policy is. The theory is interchangeably

also known as the capital structure irrelevance principle.

A number of principles underlie the theorem, which holds under the assumption of both taxation

and no taxation. The two most important principles are that, first, if there are no taxes, increasing

leverage brings no benefits in terms of value creation, and second, that where there are taxes,

such benefits, by way of an interest tax shield, accrue when leverage is introduced and/or

increased. The theory compares two companies: one un-levered (i.e. financed purely by equity)

and the other levered (i.e. financed partly by equity and partly by debt)—and states that if they

are identical in every other way the value of the two companies is the same.

2.3.3 Capital Structure: The Trade-off Theory

This theory of capital structure suggests that a firm’s a firm’s target leverage is driven by three

components: corporate taxes, bankruptcy costs and agency conflicts. Capital structure trade off

involves balancing the corporate tax advantage of debt against the present value of bankruptcy

costs (Kraus and Litzenberger, 1973) and agency costs (Jensen and Meckling, 1976). Trade-off

Theory also states that debt-equity ratio varies from one firm to another depending on its risks,

number of assets held (collateral) and number of assets which are source of taxable income from

their shield. The theory explains that, industry differences lead to differences in capital structure

of companies. High technology industries tend to use very little debt because of its risks on

assets, since their assets are intangible, unlike retailers who borrow heavily because of the

presence of tangible assets they hold.

2.3.4 The Pecking Order Theory

The Pecking Order Theory depicts the hierarchy or mix of firm’s sources of finance. It explains

how firms choose to finance their operations and investments between internal and external

28

Page 39: Financial Analysis of an Energy Company

financing, basing on companies’ policies, priorities and prospective. The hierarchy implies that

there is preference in financing firm’s operations. Retained earnings are preferred followed by

debt if there is a short fall and equity being the last option. Under this theory, the optimal capital

structure is not well defined.

Meyers (1984) and Meyers and Majluf (1984) contended that there are three sources of funding

available to firms, which are retained earnings, debt and equity. Retained earnings have no

adverse selection problem; equity is subject to serious adverse selection problem while debt has

only a minor adverse selection problem. Due to adverse selection problems, firms prefer internal

to external finance. But when outside funds are necessary, firms prefer debt to equity because of

the lower information costs associated with debt issue.

From the point of view of the outside investors, equity is strictly riskier than debt. However, both

have an adverse selection risk premium, but the premium is larger on equity, which influences

the outside investors to demand a high rate of return on equity than on debt. Whereas from the

perspective of those inside the firm, retained earnings are a better source of funds than debt and

debt is better than equity.

2.3.5 Fortune Oil Plc’s Capital Structure

During 2009, Fortune Oil market capitalization remained largely unchanged at approximately

£11.4 billion. The impact of a 4 pence decrease in the share price during the year to 546 pence at

31 December 2009 (550 pence at 1 January 2009) was offset by the issuance of 10.7 million

shares to satisfy employee share awards. Net debt decreased during the year from £3,900 million

at the end of 2008 to £2,909 million at the end of 2009.

The company continues to proactively manage the capital structure to maximize shareowner

value, whilst maintaining flexibility to take advantage of opportunities which arise, to grow the

business. One element of the strategy is to make targeted, value enhancing acquisitions. It is

intended that these will, where possible, be funded from cash flow and increased borrowings.

29

Page 40: Financial Analysis of an Energy Company

The availability of suitable acquisitions, at acceptable prices is, however, unpredictable.

Accordingly, in order to maintain flexibility to manage the capital structure, the company has

sought, and been given, shareholders approval to buy back shares as and if appropriate. This

authority has only been used once, in 1999, when 24 million shares (representing approximately

1% of the Company's equity) were purchased. Additionally, many of the obligations under share

plans will be satisfied by existing shares purchased in the market by the Fortune Oil Employee

Trust (Employee Trust) rather than by newly issued shares. The Employee Trust purchased £50

million shares during 2009 (none in 2008) and held 19 million shares at the end of 2009,

representing approximately 0.9% of the company's issued share capital.

Fortune Oil authorized ordinary share capital is 3,200,000,000 ordinary shares of 12.5 pence

each (2005-2009). The allotted, Called-up and fully paid up ordinary share capital as at 31 st,

December, 2002, 2003,2004, 2005 and 2006 shows £ million 257, £ million 258, £ million 259, £

million 260, and £ million 262(2,095,000 at 12.5p shares in 2009) respectively. The Company

has one class of ordinary shares which carry no right to fixed income.

During 2009, 10,682,192 ordinary shares of 12.5p were allotted and issued upon the exercise of

share options. The nominal value of ordinary shares issued during the year was £1.3 million.

There were no other changes in the issued ordinary share capital of the Company during 2009.

During 2008, 11,528,687 ordinary shares of 12.5p were allotted and issued upon the exercise of

share options .The nominal value of ordinary shares issued during the year was £1.4 million.

There were no other changes in the issued ordinary share capital of the Company during 2008.

During 2007, 8,446,409 ordinary shares of 12.5p were allotted and issued upon the exercise of

share options. The nominal value of ordinary shares issued during the year was £1.1 million.

The company committed both long and short term debt / borrowings at fixed and floating rate

just to maintain its debt capital program for the period under review. The Gross debt as at 31 st,

December, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006 shows £2,318 million, £4,644 million£4,216

million, £4,279 million and £3,304 million respectively. Generally the company is highly

financed through borrowings and these borrowings were secured by the company group

properties.

30

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CHAPTER THREE

VALUATION OF THE COMPANY

3.1 OVERVIEW

This chapter presents the valuation of Fortune Oil Plc by applying different valuation methods.

There are several valuation methods. However, this project uses the methods in the following

sections. To fully understand the application of the valuation models to Fortune Oil plc, we start

with a review of the literature on the selected valuation models.

3.2 VALUATION MODELS

3.2.1 Dividend Valuation Models

Is the discounted cash flow model used to value stock, or equity i.e. the cash flow the shareowner

in a company really stands to receive is dividends plus the proceeds from the sale of the shares at

some future time. The dividend is the cash payment made by the company to the investors. In

most cases, companies pay out part of their earnings in the form of dividends and retain a part for

reinvestment. Dividends are paid from earnings, and consequently it is the potential earning

power of a company which is the most important determinant of its market value. This had been

most convincingly argued by Miller and Modigliani (1961) who contended, assuming perfectly

competitive capital market, that ‘values are determined by real considerations the earning power

of the company’s assets and its investment policy and not by how the fruits of the earning power

are packaged for distribution”. A company can use either or all of the following factors to

influence dividend policy; Profitability, Company Size, Leverage, Agency Costs, Business Risk,

Ownership Structure, Maturity, Tangibility, and Growth Opportunities.

The Gordon Dividend Valuation Model (1959)

Gordon (1959) established the model and the calculation bases on dividends growth and required

rate of return. Always the value of the company is the same with earnings based valuation model

to that of the dividend model. This model states that, the share price given by discounted value

for the dividend per share is what expected to be received by the shareholders. The shares will be

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Page 42: Financial Analysis of an Energy Company

held for a given time period and then sold at the expected price (based on the payoff expected

from holding stocks in present value terms).

The cash flow consists of the dividends expected by shareholders and the process predictable

from the sale of the share at the end of holding period. Increase in dividend payout increases the

value of company. Current dividends are preferable to future dividends as the future ones that are

associated with uncertainties.

Graham and Dodd (1934) commended that, the typical investor would most certainly prefer to

have his dividend today and that let tomorrow take care of it. There seems to be a natural

clientele for high payout shares because dividends are regarded as payout income where capital

gains are additions to capital. Gordon (1961) and Lintner (1962) cited that investors view current

dividends as less risky than future dividends or capital gains.

The expected rate of return on a share bought in the market comprises ‘dividends paid until share

sold and the price on sale’. In order to make a purchase decision, the shareholder must believe

that the current price is below the value of the receipts, i.e. Current price, Po <   Dividends to sale

+ Sale price ⁄ Discount rate i. Algebraically, if the share is held for n years then sold at a price Pn

and annual dividends to year n are D1, D2, D3,…….Dn.

Then:

Po < D1/(1+i)¹  + D2/(1+i)²  + D3/(1+i)³ + (Dn + Pn)/(1+i)ⁿ

The model tells us that the price of a share of stock should equal the present value of all future

dividends paid by the share.

By similar logic, the seller of the share must believe that;

Po > D1/(1+i)¹  + D2/(1+i)²  + D3/(1+i)³ + (Dn + Pn)/(1+i)ⁿ

These different views will occur for two reasons.

Different projects for D1, D2, etc and for Pn by the different investors.

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Different discount rates being used by different investors.

However, the price of share is usually in equilibrium, for the majority of investors who are not

actively trading in that asset. Dividend policy of the company is therefore depending on what

type of the investors the company has and the tax rate in force at the time. If investors demand

their dividend currently, then the company will fund its business by using the external funding or

otherwise. The Company can try to decrease the problem of providing high dividend payout ratio

by convincing its investors to make out their own dividends by selling some of their shares if the

dividends provided by the company are contrary to their expectation.

Table 2.4 Value of the Fortune Oil Plc using Dividend Valuation Models

 Dividend Valuation

Model 2007 2008 2009

Po=D/r D= dividend(million) 247 260 272

  ‘r % 23 23 23

  Po 10.739 11.3043 11.826

  No(million) 2,027 2,051 2,072

 

Vo = Po*No

(million)

21,767.95

3

23,185.119

3 24,503.472

Note: “r” assumed to be constant from 2005 to 2009

This study focussed on the following key assumptions governing the Gordon Valuation Model:

Dividends continue to grow at a constant rate for an extended period of time.

The growth rate is assumed to be less than the required return on equity, ke.

Gordon demonstrated that if this were not so, in the long run the firm would grow impossibly

large. Theoretically, the best method of stock valuation is the dividend valuation approach. But,

if a firm is not paying dividends or has an erratic growth rate, the approach will not work.

Consequently, other methods are required.

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3.2.2 Gordon’s Growth Model

Gordon Growth Model is a variant of the discounted cash flow model, a method for valuing

shares or business. Often used to provide difficult-to-resolve valuation issues for litigation, tax

planning, and business transactions that are currently off market.

Assumptions of the Model

It assumes that the company issues a dividend that has a current value of D that grows at a

constant rate g. It also assumes that the required rate of return for the stock remains constant at k

which is equal to the cost of equity for that company. It involves summing the infinite series

which gives the value of price current P.

The model also assumes that the earnings growth is constant for perpetuity. In practice a very

high growth rate cannot be sustained for a long time. Often it is assumed that the high growth

rate can be sustained for only a limited number of years. After that only a sustainable growth rate

will be experienced. This corresponds to the terminal case of the Discounted Cash Flow model.

Gordon's model is thus applicable to the terminal case. Gordon established that if this was not so,

in the long run the company would impossibly grow large.

The problem with the model is that it requires one perpetual growth rate greater than negative 1

and less than the cost of capital.

P0 = (D0 (1+g) 1 ⁄ (1+r) 1) + (D0 (1+g) 2 ⁄ (1+r) 2) +…..+ (D0 (1+g) ∞ ⁄ (1+r) ∞)

Where:

D0 = the most recently paid dividend.

 g   = the expected growth rate in dividends

 r  = the required return on equity investments∞ = infinite time.

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Predicting future dividends for two or three periods is hard enough; the equation above needs an

estimate of dividends perpetually. A pragmatic approach of providing such estimates is to

presume that the dividend will grow steadily evenly hence high dividend policy is the best.

Algebraically model = P0 = D0 (1 + g) ⁄ (r - g)   =    D1⁄ (r – g)

3.2.3 Earnings Valuation Model

Modigliani and Miller (1961), developed M & M model and argued that, dividend is paid from

earnings. Earnings power of the company is the most significant feature in the whole course of

determining the market value of the company. All investments in respect of this model are

funded from retention. Earnings based valuation model uses Net Present Value (NPV), earnings

required rate of return and growth rate.

They argued that dividend policy is irrelevant given the perfect capital market and frictionless

world. The value of the company depends only on the profitable investment strategies to be

undertaken by a company and working decisions that produce cash flows. M&M study based on

the assumptions that there are perfect capital markets, no transaction costs, no taxes/tariffs, no

brokerage/commission fees, information is costless and the market has homogeneous beliefs.

Modigliani and Miller relaxed some of their assumptions such that transaction costs and tax.

Dividends are more certain than retentions as they increase payout ratio. Expected dividends are

generally perceived to be critical determinants of the value on the share price but dividend policy

is somehow controversial.

In developing a dividend policy, there must be a proper approach to deal with, because, when a

company decides to increase investment by using retained earnings, investor’ current income in

the form of dividends will decreases. On the other hand, when dividends are increased,

shareholders’ current income will increase, but the company may have to give up some

investment opportunities for want of funds and as a result, the future earnings may decrease.

Management should therefore develop a dividend policy that apportion the net earnings into

dividends and retained earnings in the best possible way to achieve the objective of maximizing

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the wealth of investors. The objective of a dividends policy is to maximize the inventor’s return

so that the value of his investment is maximized. Investor’ return comprises dividends and

capital gain and dividend policy has a direct impact on these components of return.

A high pay out dividend policy means more dividends and less retained earnings, which may

accordingly leads to slower growth and perhaps lower share price. Low pay out policy means

less dividends, more retained earnings, higher capital gains, and perhaps higher share price.

Capital gains are future earnings while dividends are current earnings. Dividends in most cases

are taxed more than capital gains. Therefore, it is somewhat reasonable that some investors

would prefer high-payout companies while others may prefer low-payout companies.

Earnings valuation model, assumes value is based upon the sum of Net present value from

contribution obtained on the expected earnings and the expected returns of the company.

VO=E/r+PVGO,

Where:

PVGO = ∑ NPVt+NPV/(r-g) (1+r)t

,

G =retention times rate of return from investment, and

NPV = Eb (k/r-1) = Eb (k/r-1),

V0 = stands for the value of the company

E = expected earnings,

R = for required rate of return,

g = for growth rate,

b = for retention,

k = for investment rate of return and

PVGO = Present Value of Growth Opportunity

Earnings Valuation of Fortune Oil Plc (2009 to 2014)

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Let g = growth of the Fortune Oil of the revenue generated, assumed to be 23% evenly from

2009 to 2014.

Let b= Retention = the earnings after interest and tax for six years subtracts dividend paid, hence

average retentions rate obtained and get 77% and (1-b)=dividend payout =23%.

According to the theory g = bk assumed that earnings is anticipated to grow at constant rate.

From assumed b is 77% and g is 23% hence k = g/b =0.23/0.77 = 0.2987=29.87%=k=30%

The company-required rate of return also assumed to be constant = the average rate of

shareholders funds = r = 23%.

Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Average(2005-2009)

ROSF=r

= 19.26% 13.16% 25.5% 25.43% 31.7% ‘r=23%

Earning model:

V0 = E/r + PVGO, but PVGO = NPV1/ (1+r) 1 + NPV2/ (1 + r) 2 + ………………NPVn/ (1+r) n

Amount in £ million

V0 = 1,169 + 273.95 + 337.23 + 415.25 + 511.17 + 629.25 + 774.60

0.23 1.23 (1.23)2

(1.23)3

(1.23)4

(1.23)5

(1.23)6

=£6,421.91 million

3.2.4 Net Assets Valuation

Book-value = Assets - Liabilities i.e. the book value of the company is the cost of assets less

accumulated depreciation, i.e. it is the sum value net asset of the company. Book value can be

defined as total value of the company’s assets that investors would notionally receive in case of

company’s liquidation. The book value can show whether the inventory is over or under priced

when compared to market value. It is the same as net assets value taking the cost of tangible

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assets less accumulated depreciation add working capital less long-term liability. The book value

may be affected by the management decisions on the provisions made on depreciation and

debtors hence some companies may decide to have large amount of provision on bad debts.

Table 2.5 Fortune Oil’s Book Value

Year 2005(£million)

2006(£million)

2007(£million)

2008(£million)

2009(£million)

Book value 70,198 64,756 114,297 219,242 228,996

% change in book value

13% -9% 76.5% 91.8% 4.4%

The Fortune Oil’s book value grew to 13% in 2005 before falling by 9% in 2006 and the growth

shoot up to 76.5% and 91.8% in 2007 and 2008 respectively with a marginal growth of 4.4% in

2009(see Table 40 above).

Figure 2.11 Fortune Oil Book Value Trend

20052006

2007 2008 2009

70,198 64,756

114,297

219,242228,996

Book Value Trend (in £million) - Fortune Oil

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3.2.5 Price-Earnings Model

The price earnings ratio (PE) is a widely method used to measure how much the market is

willing to pay for a unit of earnings from a company. It shows how much shareowners are

willing to pay per a unit of currency of the reported profits. P/E ratios are higher for companies

with high growth prospects, all else being equal, but they are lower for riskier companies.

A high PE has two interpretations:

A higher than average PE may mean that the market expects earnings to rise in the future.

A high PE may indicate that the market thinks the company’s earnings are very low risk

and is therefore willing to pay a premium for them.

Assumptions of the P/E model:

The price earnings ratios are expected to remain constant over time.

A number of inferences are drawn based on results of the analysis.

The expected rate of return (k) is constant over time.

Market Value (Vo) = Earnings *P/E ratio

Table 2.6 Fortune Oil’s Price Earnings Valuation Model

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Earnings Per Share 0.16 0.24 0.25 0.49 0.47

Market Share price (GBP) 6.5p 5.7p 6.4p 8.7p 6.8p

P/E 40.625 23.75 25.6 17.7551 14.4681

Earnings (£million) 2,792 4,307 4,487 8,897 8,842

Vo(£million) 113,425 102,291 114,867 157,967 127,927

From Table 2.6, Fortune Oil’s earnings for 2009 were £8,842 million and P/E ratio of 14.468, the

lowest compared to the company’s performance in the preceding four years and this gives the

value for the company to be £127,927 million in 2009.

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3.2.6 Market Valuation Method

The market capitalization refers to the value of the outstanding shares of company. The market

value is equal to the total number of shares multiplying by the market share price. The market

capitalization depends on the share price and on occasion may misinform users as they believe

that the higher the market share price the larger the value of the company.

Market value

The method assumes that shareowners will buy investments of equal value interchangeably and

the company value is determined in the following way:

Market value per share = dividend per share divided by dividend yield

Assumptions of market value method:

A constant ratio of earnings is reserved in each time.

All investment is funded by retentions

The rate of return on investment is constant over time (The earlier a shareholder receives

his or her funds the more value it has).

The cash flow generated from investment are constant in infinity

The rate of return on existing assets remains constant over time

A constant ratio of dividends is paid out.

Market Prospects

Market measures are valuable for analyzing companies registered in stock exchange. The market

measures use share prices, which reflect the market’s prospects of both company return and risk

as the market perceives it.

Fair Market Value

“Fair market value” is defined as the price, expressed in terms of cash equivalents, at which

assets would change hands between a theoretical willing and able purchaser and a theoretical

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willing and able broker, acting at arm’s length in an open and unrestricted market, when neither

is under force to acquire or sell and when both have rational knowledge of the relevant facts. The

fair market value standard incorporates definite assumptions, including the assumptions that;

the theoretical buyer is rationally prudent and logical but is not stimulated by any

synergistic or planned influences;

the business operates as a going concern the theoretical transaction will be conducted in

cash or equivalents;

The parties are willing and able to consummate the transaction.

These assumptions might not, and probably do not, reflect the actual situation of the market in

which the business might be sold. However, these conditions are assumed because they yield the

same standards of value, after applying generally-accepted valuation methods, which allows

meaningful comparison between businesses which are similarly situated.

The market approach to business valuation is rooted in the economic principle of competition:

that in a free market the market forces will drive the price of business assets to certain

equilibrium. Buyers would not pay more for the business, and the sellers will not accept less,

than the price of a comparable business enterprise. It is alike in many respects to the

“comparable sales” technique that is regularly used in real estate evaluation. The market price of

the shares of publicly traded companies engaged in the same or a similar line of business, whose

shares are actively traded in a free and open market, can be a valid indicator of value when the

transactions in which shares are traded are adequately similar to allow meaningful comparison.

The problem lies in identifying public companies that are adequately comparable to the company

for this purpose. Also, as for a private company, the equity is less liquid (in other words its

shares are less easy to buy or sell) than for a public company, its value is taken to be somewhat

lower than such a market-based valuation would give.

3.3 SUMMARY OF VALUATION OF FORTUNE PLC

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Based on the calculations and discussion of the valuation models presented above, the valuation

of the Fortune Plc can be summarized as shown in Table 3.7 below. The summary focuses on

Fortune Plc’s valuation for years 2007, 2008 and 2009.

Table 3.7 Summary Valuation of Fortune Plc

Valuation Model 2009(£Millions)

Gordon Dividend Valuation Model

24,503

Earnings Valuation 6,421Net Assets Valuation 228,996Price Earnings Model 127,927Market Value

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CHAPTER FOUR

CONCLUSION

Financial analysis through various techniques including balance sheet structure and income

statement structure analysis and the use of ratios has been found to be very helpful in evaluating

the company performance, compared to previous years and to competitors and the industry,

setting benchmarks or standards for performance, highlighting areas that need to be improved, or

areas that offer the most hopeful future potential and enable external parties, such as investors or

lenders, to measure the creditworthiness and profitability of the company.

The financial statements of Fortune Oil show that it was doing some how good in terms of

revenue, gross profit, operating profits as well as profit after tax and interest, especially for the

years under review. However, the financing structure is set to be against the shareholders of the

company as its financial leverage hangs above 50%. This puts the company at higher financial

risk.

The analysis also evaluated the company’s capital structure and this involved a review of the

irrelevancy theory propounded by Modigliani and Miller (1958). The irrelevancy theory of

capital structure by Modigliani and Miller (1958) argued that the value of the company is

independent with its capital structure. Friend and Puckett (1964) and Black and Scholes (1974)

were incapable to find any considerable relationship between dividend policy and total returns on

a risk-adjusted basis. Barnes, Haugen and Senbet (1981) concluded that as the level of gearing

increases, the agency costs increase as well. The conflicting interest between shareowners and

debt owners arise due to this agency costs. There are two assumptions presented by researchers

“the principle and the agent motivated by self-interest and they are capable of forming rational

anticipation concerning the likely outcomes and the actions of the decision takers.

Modigliani and Miller (1995) explained that the dividend policy is irrelevant in company

valuation. Gordon and Lintner model explained that high dividend policy is the best one. The

results show that there are some general factors that determine dividend policy for both financial

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and non-financial companies and there are other factors that affect only non-financial companies.

Specifically, there are six determinants of dividend policy for non-financial companies, while

there are only three factors that influence the dividend policy of financial companies. The

general factors are profitability, company size, and business risk, government influence, gearing

level, and the company age have a strong influence on the dividend policy of non-financial

companies but no effect on financial companies. Agency costs, tangibility, and growth do not

appear to have any effect on the dividend policy of either financial or non-financial companies.

The fact that agency costs is not an important determinant of dividend policy is not surprising

given that Arab companies are highly geared on bank debt where the role of dividends in

alleviating the agency problems is less important.

With respect to the stability of dividend policy, we find that the speed of adjustment differs

substantially between financial and non-financial companies. While we find that non-financial

companies adopt a policy of smoothing dividends, this is not the case for financial companies. In

fact, financial companies do not have stable dividend policies. It was found that shareholders

have a strong favourite to receive dividends. If the company cannot pay cash dividends, they

prefer to receive stock dividends compared to not receiving dividends at all. This clearly shows

that they are certainly not neutral towards the dividend policy. We do not find much support for

the “irrational” explanations of the existence of dividends, i.e. the uncertainty solution theory of

Gordon (1961, 1962) and the behavioural explanation of Shefrin and Statman (1984). We only

find support for the latter in case of stock dividends. Furthermore, it was found that shareholders

partly want dividends because of transaction costs. The results strongly reject the agency theories

of Easterbrook (1984) and Jensen (1986). On the other hand a strong support is found for the

signalling theories of Bhattacharya (1979) and Miller and Rock (1985).

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REFERENCES

Brealey, Richard A., Stewart C. Myers, and Franklin Allen (2008) Principles of Corporate

Finance. 9th ed., McGraw-Hill/Irwin, Boston

Gitman, L. J. (2004) Principles of Managerial Finance, 10th Edition, Pearson Education, London

Vance, D. I. (2003) Financial Analysis and Decision Making: Tools and Techniques to Solve

Financial Problems and Make Effective Business Decisions, McGraw Hill, Chicago

Modigliani and Miller (1958) “The Capital Corporate Finance and the Theory of Investment,”

American Economic Review, Vol. 48, 261-297

Gordon (1959) “Dividends, Earnings and Stock prices,” Review of Economics and Statistics,

Vol. 99-105

Lintner (1956) “Distribution of Incomes of Corporations among Dividends, Retained earnings

and Taxes,” The American Economic Review Journal, Vol.46, No 2, 97-113

Myers S, (1984) “The Determinants of Corporate Borrowing,” Journal of Finance, Vol.32, 147-

175

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APPENDIX 1: BALANCE SHEETS (2005 – 2009) – FORTUNE OIL PLC

Millions of GBPAnnual Annual Annual Annual AnnualPeriod Period Period Period Period

Description 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Cash and Cash Equivalents 11,713 8,202 27,263 67,823 55,766 Short Term Marketable Securities 0 0 0 0 0 Accounts Receivable 6,272 6,302 8,759 18,937 14,817 Inventory 2,151 1,070 1,064 4,672 5,260 Other Current Assets 0 0 0 0 0 Total Current Assets 20,136 15,574 37,086 91,432 75,843

Property, Plant and Equipment 26,747 24,539 43,283 90,086 94,126 Accumulated Depreciation 0 0 0 0 0 Net Fixed Assets 26,747 24,539 43,283 90,086 94,126 Long-term Investments 1,917 2,394 5,425 8,136 5,593 Investments in Other Companies 19,410 21,083 22,593 27,405 31,326 Intangibles and Other Assets 1,988 1,166 5,910 11,937 12,354 Total Non Current Assets 50,062 49,182 77,211 137,564 143,399 Total Assets 70,198 64,756 114,297 228,996 219,242

Trade and Other Payables 9,813 5,362 15,410 26,572 32,458 Borrowings 1,944 3,427 5,212 27,593 30,192 Short Term Portion of LT Debt 0 0 0 0 0 Other Current Liabilities 241 170 549 1,032 1,026 Total Current Liabilities 11,998 8,959 21,171 55,197 63,676

Long-term Debt / Borrowings 7,126 5,567 27,976 34,633 18,346 Other Long-term Liabilities 336 264 1,527 2,556 3,024 Total Non Current Liabilities 7,462 5,831 29,503 37,189 21,370 Total Liabilities 19,460 14,790 50,674 92,386 85,046

Non-controlling Interests 11,726 11,288 18,473 49,944 44,110 Ordinary Shares 18,351 18,363 18,363 19,282 19,875 Share Premium 37,344 22 22 8,932 10,129 Retained Earnings (17,985) 23,805 28,291 37,618 47,157 Translation Reserves 2,062 (2,717) (932) 21,428 13,854 Treasury Shares (760) (795) (594) (594) (929)Total Shareholder Equity 50,738 49,966 63,623 136,610 134,196

Total Liabilities & Equity 70,198 64,756 114,297 228,996 219,242

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APPENDIX 2: INCOME STATEMENTS (2005 – 2009) – FORTUNE OIL PLC

Millions of GBPAnnual Annual Annual Annual AnnualPeriod Period Period Period Period

Description 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Net Sales 143,057 175,771 219,887 364,722 403,745Other Operating Revenues -98,068 -132,500 -147,199 -232,586 -211,714Total Revenues 44,989 43,271 72,688 132,136 192,031Cost of Goods Sold (36,851) (33,912) (61,831) (101,660) (157,013)Other Operating Expenses 0 0 0 (11,192) (12,000)Total Direct Expenses (36,851) (33,912) (61,831) (112,852) (169,013)Selling, General & Administrative (4,617) (4,444) (5,169) (8,483) (9,522)Operating Income 3,521 4,915 5,688 10,801 13,496

Interest Expenses (454) (471) (1,243) (2,722) (2,532)Foreign Exchange (Loss) Gain 0 0 0 0 0 Associated Company (Loss) Gain 2,966 3,110 4,376 (1,051) 6,228 Other Non-Operating (Loss) Gain 0 0 0 0 0 Income Tax Expense (544) (617) (619) (1,501) (2,784)Reserve Charges 0 (834) 0 0 0 Income Before Extra Ord. Items 5,489 6,103 8,202 5,527 14,408

Extra Ordinary Items (Loss) Gain (629) 2,551 0 8,648 865 Tax Effects of Extraordinary Items 0 0 0 0 0 Minority Interests   0 0 0 0 Net Income 4,860 8,654 8,202 14,175 15,273

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