final_gpac 2014 civic engagement report_04.08.2014_geo
TRANSCRIPT
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,
G-PAC)
2014
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................................................................................................................................... 3
I. ............................................................................................................................. 10
II........................... 12
...................................................................... 12
,
.......................................................................................................... 14
......... 16
III. .................................................. 18
....... 19
........................................................ 20
IV. .................................. 21
.......................................................... 22
................................................................................... 23
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V........................................................... 27
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........................................................... 29
........................................................................................................... 29
................................................................................................ 31
VI.
......................................................................................... 32
............. 32
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............................... 37
VII. ........................................................................................................................... 37
1 - ............................................................................. 40
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2011 ...- (USAID)
- (EWMI)
, G-PAC- ,
. G-PAC-
(think tanks)
. 2014 , G-PAC-,
,
.
2011 , 2014- G-PAC-
,
,
.
; ,
, ,
, ,
- , ,
, . 2014 23
6 ;
2410 .
, (
1).
, ,
. ,
,
, ,
.
, 2014 , 2011-.
, , .
, ,
,
, .
,
. ,
, ,
,
, ,
.
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4
. , ,
,
.
2014 :
.
, 2014
(33%) , 2011
(45%).
2011
, 2014
-
. , 67%-
,
, 42%-
(2011
, ,
56% 30%).
.
-
--, 28% 29%,
2011
, ,
, 18% 21% .
-
, , .
,
,
. ,
,
2014
41%-, 2011 - 30%-.
21% , ,
? (%)
2014
(GYLA)
10
(ISFED) 1
1
1
1
5
52
29
,
? (%)
2014 2011
10 5
(4) 19 16
(3) 40 30
(2) 9 5
6 7
16 36 0 1
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19%-,
2011 .
, .
, ,
, 2014 -
35%-, 2011 - 33%-
. -
(65%)
,
,
- , , ,
. ,
, ,
,
. ,
,
,
.
,
. ,
,
, 2014
35%-, 2011
33%-. , -
,
,
43%- .
,
- ,
.
,
,
?
(%)
2014
27
(4) 16
(3) 18(2) 8
25
6
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, ,
,
(31%).
, , ,
- -
(30%),
(17%), -
(15%), (8%)
-
(6%). -
1%
. -, -
-
,
.
, . 2014 9%-,
, 2011
(5%). , 2014 5%- ,
, , 2011 2%-
. ,
- 2014 13% ,
; 2011 6%-
. ,
, ,
2011 . ,
,
.
? (%)
2014
31
17
15
15
, 15
13
12 7
,
6
5
,
2
22
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,
-
.
, , 2011
, 2014
-
,
2%-
,
, , .
, ,
, , ,
2011 , 2014
. 2014 74% ,
, 2011 65%-
; 74% ,
, 2011 61%- ; 27% ,
, 2011 20%- . ,
2011, 2014 , (57%),
(, ) (29%),
(29%)
(23%).
.
,
, .
, ,
, 81%-
, ,
; 6%- ,
, ,
. ,
,
.
2011
,
. 2014 , ,
( , %)2014 2011
/22 6
/
6 4
9 5
6 2
13 6
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. - 66% ,
,
,
, 16% ,
.
, , . 2011 ,
56% ,
.
, -
.
, ,
.
,
,,
,
,
,
,
, .
, .
,
.
, G-
PAC- -
,
,
-
-
, : 1)
-
,
, 2)
, 3)
, ,
, 4) , 5)
?(%)
2014 2011
.
,,
.
3 4
12 7
,
,
.
38 19
29 38
. 3 3
. 13 27
. 1 3
-
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,
. ,
-
: ,
,
,
. G-PAC-
,
,
,
, ,
.
-
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I.
2011 G-PAC-
.
,
- , , ,
, ,
.
,
, , . 2011
,
, ,
( - )
,
, . ,
,
.
2014 G-PAC- . 2011
,
,
, . ,
,
, ,
, ,
, , ,
(
1).
2014 -
(EWMI) G-PAC- .
,
.
, ,
,
,
.
, , , -
,
, ,
-
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.
,
. , , ,
. ,
. , ,
,
,
2011 . ,
, -
, , , , ,
.
, ,
.
,
,,
,
, , , , .
,
. , ,
, , ,
.
,
- , ,
.
, ,
,
.
-
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II.
G-PAC- 2014
, 2011 .
, .
. ,
,
2011 .
,
, /
. ,
,
,
,
, , . ,
,
, ,
,
.
,
, ,
.
2011
, G-PAC- 2014
,
. ,
, ,
, ,
, ,
. , 2%- ,
. 0.8%
1.7%-, 2011 , ,
,
. , 98%
, ,
.
,
,2011 .
-
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13% , , 4%
, ,
3% , .
2011 ,
,
., 2011 6% ,
, 2014 22%- . ,
,
.
,
,
. 2014 9%- ,
, 2011 (5%) . 2014 6%- ,
, , 2011 2%-
. ,
, , 2014 6%- ,
, , 2011 4% .
, ,
- 13% ,
,
, 2011 6% . ,, ,
2011
.
,
;
,
. ,
,
, , ,
, , ,
. ,
, ,
. , 22%,
-
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, ,
.
,
,
, ,
, , .
,
,
,
. 2011
,
2014
.
74% ,
, 2011
65%- ; 74% ,
, 2011 61%- ; 27% , , 2011 20%- .
,
(57%),
(29%), (29%)
(23%). , ,
. ,
,
, ,
. , ,
,
.
,
. , ,
,
, 21%-, - 40% -
.
, . , , ,
-
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, , 55%-
64%- . 89% ,
, .
, , , , ,
, ,
.
. ,
,
,
.
, ,
, 10%-, 66%- 74%-
. , , , ,
, 2011- 2014 31%- 25%-.
, ,
(WVS) , (15%)
(11%) (60%) (45%),
...-, ,
(35%). , ,
, .
, 2014 , ,
, ,
, 2011 . ,
,
, 2011 , ,
. ,
,
,
, ,
; .
-
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,
10%-
,
, 2%-
,
,
,
. , ,
, 2014 35%-,
, 2011 33%- .
(65%) ,
,
- ,
, ,
. , ,
,
,
.
;
,
, ,
.
,
.
-
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,
, . ,
,
15%- . ,
, ,
,
,
43%- . 2014 : , ,
?.
, 59%-
27%- ,
. ,
, 59%-
- ,
. ,
, 3%-
.
, ,
(43%)
(59%), , , 2-10%-
, . ,
. ,
,
,
;,
,
,
.
-
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, 2011 ,
, .
,
.
, , . ,
, ,
,
, ,
, ,
.
,
.
III.
- ,
,
,
, ,
, ,
,
. 2011
, ,
., ,
. 2014
, ,
,
. ,
,
,
.
-
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,
, G-PAC-
.
,
? . , ,
. 2011 ,
, ,
, ,
,
.
2011 , 2014 ,
.
, ,
. 2011
(
(), (ISFED) )
, , -
(...- (USAID)
()),
( (BP) ),
( ), - ( ). 2014
: (38%), (30%),
- (41%), (43%)
(33%).
2011 ,
, ,,
. 2014
67%- ,
2011 56%-. 42%-
-
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, 2011 30%-. 30%-
43%-
, 2014 . ,
,
. 42%-
, , , 201130%-.
- 2011
48%- ,
, 2014 62%-.
, , ,
. ,
,
. , USAID-, , , -,
,
, . ,
, ,
. , BP-
, .
,
,
,
. 74%-,
,
, 67%- 2013
17
,49%-
. ,
,
. , 17
, .
2011 G-PAC- - ,
,
, . ,
,
, 2011 34%-
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, . ,
,
, 45%- ,
. ,
,
.
2014
, ,
,
. ,
,
. 2011
34%- ;
2014
28%-.
, ,
, 2011
45%- , , 2014 33%-
. , , ,
. ,
, ,
, , ,
, .
, , ,
, 2014
, , ,
, . ,
,
,
.
IV.
,
,
, . , , 2011
-
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, 2014 ,
.
;
,
. , ,, ,
,
.
,
, 2011
. 2011- 2014
18%- 28%-,
, ,
, 26%- 36%-,
,
,
.
- , 82% 59%; ,
(34%), (32%)
(30%). ,
, ,
,
.
2014 - :
, ,
?.
, 30%-,
; 12% ,
; 8% , .
, ,
,
. ,
.
, 15% ,
.
-
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- 88% - , 73% - , 37% -
, 21% - . , ,
, -
(41%); 2011
30%- . 21% ,
, 19%-, 2011
. 21% ,
, , 2011 31%-.
,
,
,
, .
,
; ,
,
, , ,
, .
, 2014
,
,
, .
29%
, 40%
,
15% .
, 2011
21% , 30%
, . ,
2011 ,
,
(21%)
(16%),
(6%) (2%). ,
-
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, ,
; ,
, ,
. , (40%)
, , .
G-PAC- ,
. 61%-
, ,
,
. 29%- ,
10%-. , ,
. , .
80%, , ,
. 17% ,
1% ,
.
. 58%-,
, 33%- , , 10%-
.
.
, ,
.6% ,
, .
81% ,
, .
2011 , 2014
- 47% ,
34% .
, ,
, , .
,
, ,
.
,
-
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, , , ,
, . G-PAC-
, ,
, ,
.
2011 , (31%) ,
. ,
, ,
, ,
, . ,
, 1%-
. (30%), (17%),
(15%),
(8%)
(6%). , ,
,
,
5%- , ,
(56%), (53%), (20%),
(13%)
(12%)
.
,
, -
. ,
, ,
-
(17%) (15%) ,
, , .
, ,
, , , ,
2014 .
, 2011 , , ,
, , ,
, , ,
. , ,
-
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, , ,
,
,
,
.
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V.
, ,
,
,
. 2014 ,
, ,
,
,
.,
, ,
,
. ,
,
,
. , ,
, , ,
, .
, , ,
.
,
,
.
,
-
.
36% ,
,
, 22% ,
. , ,
, ,
(41%) , , ,
(32%). , ,
, , ,
-
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, , , ,
,
. ,
.
,
, . ,
, 21%-
, , 67%-,
, ,
11%-, .
. ,
, . ,
(51%) ,
. , , ,.
, ,
, , ,
, ,
,
, ,
. ,
,
, . ,
.
,
,
,
. , ,
,
,
. ,,
,
, ,
.
, ,
, ,
.
, , 2%,
, , ,
.
-
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,
,
. , 2011 ,
92%- ,
. 7%,
,
,
, .
. 55%
, , 35%
, , 10% , . ,
, . ,
; , ,
.
,
, .
73% , , , 2011 64%
. , 74% ,
, , 2011 67% .
, ,
. ,
, ,
, ,
. , ,
, 50%-
. , , (22%), (9%)
(9%) , (9%) .
G-PAC- ,
. ,
,
, - . ,
-
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,
,
.
, (58%) 20
,
; 25%,
40 ,
.
29%-
4- 20
11% , 0-3
, . , ,
56%- ,
1% , . 64%
, 25%
1% , . ,
, , ,
, ,, .
, ,
, , ,
. 72% ,
,
. 15% ,
6% ,
.
(49%)
(28%). ,
, ,
, , 5%- ,
4%-
, . 38%-
, , , 21%-
, ,
. ,
, (7%)
(6%). , ,
.
,
.
-
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, , ,
, . ,
66% ,
23%.
(18%). , 29%
,
14%- . , ,
,
, ,
, ,
, . ,
, .
29% ,
, , , , 44% .
, ,
.
, , ,
. ,
, ,
, ,
, .
-
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VI.
,
, , ,
, . G-PAC-
,
,
.
, , 2011 ,
, -, , .
, ,
(., )
. ,
,
, , ,
,
.
,
,
,
- 75%- -
, 2011
65%-
. ,
,
. 60%-
62%- , , ,
( )
. , 12%- 11%-,
, , /
.
, ,
, . ,
53% ,
. ,
-
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,
, .
48% ,
. , 43% ,
, .
. ,
, , 2011 2014
, , ,
, . 2011 ,
30% , 16%
, , 2014
19% , 29% . -
, , 22% 21% ,
, 71%- 70%- ,
.
43%
:
, , 42%
:
,
.,
,
.
, 2011-2014-
, 2014
, ,
. 2011 28% , 9%
, 2014 20% , 22%
.
,
.
. 2014 ,
,
-
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.
16% :
. , ,
, , (66%) ,
, , .
, 2011
56% .
, , :
, ,
32%- , 26%
, 30% . , 2011
( - 25%, 32% 36%)
, , . , ,
, .
, ,
,
. ,
,
. , ,
, ,
, 2011 ,
,.
2011 2014 , , ,
. 2011 , ,
, ,
?, 59%- . 2014 ,
, 5% ,
. ,
25% ,
-
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- , 22% ,
-,
. , 2014
. 2011 , 13% ,
. , ,
, ; 4% ...-
, 1% - , 0% .
, ,
(1%),
(1%) . ,
, ,
(1%) ,
.
,
. 2011
38% :
, ,
,
; 30% :
, ,
. 2014 , , 58% ( 2011
20%- ) 24%. , , 2014
, ,
, , ,
, ,
.
,
,: ,,
.
, ? 2011 2014
. 2011
, 29% ,
-
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, 17% ,
. 2014
22% , , 36%
,
. ,
, , ; ,
.
, . 2011
44%
,
,
,
22% ,
,
. 2014
,
, , 15%- ,
, , , 20%-
(66%). ,
, ,
, , ,
.
, 2014
,
. 34%- ,
,
19% , (11%) (8%).
, 35% ,
16% , (8%)
(8%). , ,
, , ,
. ,
,
.
-
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,
,
.
,
,
.
12% , ,
, (62%) , ,
(2011 52%
). , ,
, .
,
,
- .
,
, ,
, .
, 62%-
,
,
,
.
VII.
G-PAC- ,
.
,
,
. , ,
,
,
.
,
-
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,
,
.
, ,
, , ,
.
,
.
,
. , ,
, ,
,
. ,
. ,
.
, , ,
.
G-PAC-
, ,
: 1) , ; 2) ; 3)
, ,
;
4) , ;
5)
, .
, ,
, .
,
,
,
.
G-PAC-,
,
,
,
.
-
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1 -
CRRC- 2014 23 6
.
,
, .
, ,
, . G-PAC-
.
2011 .
2014
, , ,
(.,, .) ,
.3732 , 2410 .
.
: 1. ; 2. (, , , ,
, , ); 3. ; 4.;
.
-: -,-, - -, 7
15 (
).
()
.
,
.
2014 (CAPI)
, 2011 ,
(PAPI) . CRRC-
,
.
CAPI- ,
,
-
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.
,
. ,
, ,
.
2014 23 6 8
102 .
,
, ,
. CRRC- (
), ,
.
.
, ,
- .
. 2014 0.02%- 2.45%-
1.22%- . 2011
0.01%- 2.74%-
1.31%- . ,
2011 2014
,
t-test, p-0.05-.
2014
STATA-
..
(, , ) .
, ,
OLS . ,
, ,
, Logit O-Logit .
: , , ,
(),,
(, ,
).
-
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CRRC-
CRRC- , ,
, ,
. CRRC-, CRRC-
CRRC-, ,
.
CRRC-,
,
.
-www.caucasusbarometer.org .
http://www.caucasusbarometer.org/http://www.caucasusbarometer.org/http://www.caucasusbarometer.org/http://www.caucasusbarometer.org/