final report of proceedings

SPONSORED BY

Northern Economic FuturesSymposium on EconomicDevelopment in the North of England24-26 March 2010

Report of proceedings

The focus of the programme has been to betterunderstand the long term underlying structuraleconomic issues affecting the North, includingthe changed economic environment emergingas the global economy inches its way out ofrecession, and to provide the basis for identifyingopportunities and challenges for economicdevelopment, and areas of focus for policy andpractice in the North.

The Centre for Urban and RegionalDevelopment Studies (CURDS) at NewcastleUniversity is co-ordinating the engagement ofthe Spatial Economics Research Centre (SERC)into this work programme.

Working with SERC, The Northern Wayhosted a major Symposium to contribute to thisanalysis in Manchester at Salford’s Lowry Centreon the 24th, 25th and 26th March 2010. Chairedby The Northern Ways Senior Research Advisor,Professor Michael Parkinson, and animated byProfessor John Tomaney, Director of CURDS, theevent drew together participants fromacademia, national and international policyorganisations and Northern Way partners fromacross the North of England.

This Focus North supplement, preparedby The Northern Way’s Policy and ResearchManager, Richard Baker, aims to summarise theoutputs of the programme to date, and thediscussion at the Symposium.

The supplement includes shortsummaries of the 12 papers which werepresented at the symposium and articles by 5 ofthe participants who acted as key discussants atthe event.

The full papers and other documentsmentioned in this supplement are available forfree download atwww.thenorthernway.co.uk/northernfutures

Northern Economic Futures

NORTHERN ECONOMIC FUTURES

The Northern Way has been working closely with the Spatial Economics Research Centre (SERC)on Northern Futures – a programme of researchwhich aims to synthesise a wide ranging evidencebase on the long term economic future of theNorth of England.

Northern Futures has brought together the workand the thinking of leading experts from academic,research and policy backgrounds alongside TheNorthern Way’s own research outputs to considerthe development issues facing the North of Englandand territories like it in the coming years.

IntroductionThis is an exceptionally challenging moment toconsider the future of the Northern economy.

During the past 15 years, developmentpolicy was largely delivered in a context ofeconomic growth. As we emerge from a deepand difficult period of economic recession, weare still getting to grips with the ‘new normal’.

There is general recognition that thepost-recessionary economic environment willnot, and should not, imply simply settling intothe ways of the past, even were this to bepossible. There is an emerging consensus thatour economic future should be more balanced– sectorally and spatially – sustainable, and builton stronger long term foundations.

But the full shape of the economicchange we are facing nationally, and within theNorth of England, is not yet clear and the longer-term impacts of the recession will only emergeover time. At the same time, there isconsiderable change underway in the approachof Government to economic development, andin the scale and shape of the institutions in placeto support it.

Northern Futures looks broadly at theeconomic environment which will shape thefuture of the North and its constituenteconomies over the long term. The hypothesiswhich has underpinned the work programme isthat, together with the rest of the world, theNorth is confronting a series of linked ‘TurningPoints’

The post-recessionary economicenvironment – including the restructuring ofthe financial system and cuts in spending whichit is triggering in the UK and elsewhere -is a keydriver. But alongside there are others; climatechange and resource pressures, demographicchange, accelerating technological change andthe development of the knowledge economy,and geopolitical changes that will reshaperelationships between continents, countries,regions and cities.

The Northern Futures programme hasaimed to assemble and synthesise a cross-cutting evidence base about these changesand about their impacts for the North, and tooffer an opportunity for discussion andreflection on the position of the North inresponding to them. In so doing it seeks to drawfrom the various strands of academic thoughtwhich are guiding researchers into these issues.

The Northern Futures PapersThrough Northern Futures, CURDS, SERC andthe Northern Way have invited some of theleading thinkers in urban and regionaldevelopment research to work with partnersfrom the North of England on our response tothese issues – by commissioning, publishingand debating two sets of key papers (see box1). The products of this phase of the work arereported in this supplement. A fuller synthesisof this and other work will also be producedearly in 2011.

There are two sets of papers:

The ‘Turning Points’ papers provide anoverview of the main external trends and

issues, and their impacts. They aim to considerhow these Turning Points will affect sub-national economic development processes infuture, and reflect on the implications for theNorth of England and places like it.

The second set of papers address prioritypolicy issues for the North of England itself.They address key drivers of growth andproductivity - innovation, labour markets,connectivity and investment – as well as‘contexts and legacies’ - land use and the builtenvironment, place diversity, and governanceframeworks. They review the current state ofdevelopment of these drivers in the North, andreflect on the impact of the Turning Points.


The Turning Points Papers

Turning Points Globalisation and Change: Impact onRegional and Local Development Strategies– Professor Andres Rodriguez-Pose and SylviaTijmstra, London School of Economics;

The Global Financial Crisis and the prospectsfor the North – Professor John Tomaney,Newcastle University;

Demographic Change and its impact on theNorthern regions – Professor Phil Rees and DrPeter Boden – University of Leeds;

Climate Change, Resource Pressures andthe Future for Regional DevelopmentPolicies – Professor David Gibbs, University ofHull;

Digital Technologies and the KnowledgeEconomy; Implications for policy in theNorth of England – Dr Ranald Richardson,University of Newcastle

Drivers of growth and productivity Innovation in the North of England: Drivers,Progress and Prospects – Dr Beth Perry,University of Salford;

Economic Strategy, Investment andInfrastructure – Andrew Lewis, Director, The Northern Way;

Connectivity and the North of England –Professor Alan Harding, University ofManchester;

Labour Markets, Trends and Issues:Challenges facing the North of England –Anne Green, University of Warwick

Contexts and legaciesLand Use: The Built and NaturalEnvironment – An Overview of Trends andDrivers to 2050 – Professor Mark Tewdwr-Jones, University College London;

Diverse Places, Diverse Responses –Professor Mike Coombes, NewcastleUniversity;

The Governance of Economic Developmentin Northern England – Professor Andy Pike,Newcastle University

www.thenorthernway.co.uk/northernfutures

SPONSORED BY

Climate Change, ResourcePressures and the Futurefor Regional Development PoliciesDavid GibbsDepartment of Geography, University of Hull

TURNING POINTS WHERE IS THE NORTH NOW?

SPONSORED BY

Demographic Change and its Impact upon The Northern Way RegionsPeter Boden and Phil ReesSchool of Geography, University of Leeds, UK

TURNING POINTS WHERE IS THE NORTH NOW? AN AGENDA FOR RESEARCH

Globalisation and Change: Impact onRegional and Local Development Professor Andres Rodriguez-Pose and SylviaTijmstra, London School of Economics

Through a review of evidence from across theworld, Andres Rodriguez Pose and SylviaTijmstra present evidence about the nature ofeconomic globalisation and its impact at thesub-national level.

The paper traces the growth ofinternational trade in goods and services andhighlights increasingly globalised trends ininvestment decision making. Businessorganisations are sourcing resources andproductive capacity across the world, withlocation decisions driven by judgements aboutthe inherent capacities of places in terms oftheir natural assets and skills, and their capacityto respond to support the developmentalrequirements of the business.

This creates opportunities to secureinvestment into local and regional assets, but alsocreates risks and threats from rounds ofrationalisation and competition on a worldwidescale. Competitive pressures have acceleratedover time and reduced transport costs mean thatplaces are finding investment more ‘slippery’.

A key impact of these globalisationtrends for territories like the North has been anincreasing trend to economic disparities. Placeswith stronger knowledge bases, assets andcapacities have benefited from being at thehigher end of the value-chain, providing amagnet for higher levels of growth andinvestment. Low skill, low asset regions havebeen challenged by globalisation and somehave experienced decline, divestment andpopulation outflow. The paper makes a keyobservation about the positive correlationbetween urbanisation and wealth, with citieswhich have been able to grow and improveproductivity enjoying better economicprospects.

In this increasingly complexenvironment, the paper argues that to beeffective, economic policy making needs to beresponsive to differentiated sub-nationaldevelopment opportunities. Regional and localscales are more flexible, and more able to root‘economic activity in the local social andeconomic fabric’, than national strategy-makingcan facilitate. They can assess and respond toinvestment opportunities, and can build localindigenous capacity

The paper presents evidence that,

across the world, this was a recognisable trend,and that the response to globalisation hadincluded significant decentralisation from thenational scale. Only 2 out of the 42 countriesstudied were not pursuing decentralisation andthe UK – one of the most centralised states in hissample - was experiencing higher levels ofinequality than elsewhere.

The paper describes how new territorialstructures are emerging in different places,enabling responses to be effectively calibratedto local and regional circumstances and offerspractical examples of these developments.

The Global financial Crisis and theprospects for the North Professor John Tomaney, NewcastleUniversity

John Tomaney traces the development of theglobal financial crisis and its particular impact onthe UK.

He recounts how the roots of the crisiswhich occurred between 2007 and 2009 werein the exposure of the international bankingsystem to risky lending practices within theUnited States. However, he traces a longerhistory to the crisis, locating the particularincidence within a wider set of developments,including both the extension of the worldtrading system to Russia, China and India andthe capital flows which were a key feature ofthese developments, and a longer history ofturbulence within the financial services sectordating back to the 1980s.

The paper argues that the UK had aparticular, and unique experience of the crisis,because of the structure and spatial distributionof the economy. An economy with a highdependence on financial services as its keygrowth sector – a ‘monocrop’ – and with asubstantial focusing of this sector aroundLondon, with one or two secondary centresconnected to it. As this key sector faced thechallenges create by the crisis, the rest of theeconomy experienced a knock on impact withlong term development implications across theUK, resulting in wider industrial change and ascarcity of investment.

Prior to the crisis, the UK economy had,on aggregate, boomed. Growth was, however,concentrated around London and the SouthEast because of the economic geography of thefinancial services sector. Between 1980 and1997, London gained a 22% cumulative growthadvantage over the North East and North West,

and this increased to 30% by 2007. However, despite this concentration, the

impact of the recession hit the North andMidlands because of the dependency of the restof the economy on this key sector forinvestment and for credit . Recovery is slow,despite the repairing of the financial servicessector, supported by Government intervention,and the prognosis for the regions and cities,such as much of the North, very dependent onpublic sector activity is challenging. The paperreflects on evidence generated by the NorthernWay Private Investment Commission on theimpact on the range of investment mechanismswhich had powered the Northern economy.

The paper suggests that futuredevelopment in the North will be driven by adifferent agenda built on ‘the emergence of amore diversified economy. Whilst the financialservices sector will remain central to the Britisheconomy, it needs to be reformed andrefocused and the agenda for the North ofEngland would be built on a distinctive approachto its development, seeking out and exploitingkey assets, within the context of change in thenational economy. The North should play a keyrole in a move away from a reliance on financialand business services to a more diversifiedposition including high value manufacturingand a distinctive response to climate changeand this response should be conceived anddelivered within the context of a globalisedeconomic model.

Session1Turning Points –Globalisation and theimpact of the globalfinancial crisis


Session1Turning Points –Globalisation and theimpact of the globalfinancial crisis Response


The Context for Economic DevelopmentPotential in the NorthProfessor Susan Christopherson, CornellUniversity

The current economic crisis provides us with anunusual opportunity to take a fresh look at howsuccess, failure, and long-term resilience in sub-national economies have been imagined, and toraise questions about how regional policymakers should think about “globalisation”. AsJohn Tomaney notes, the debate about theimpact of the global financial crisis – andpotential responses to it – needs to be informedby an understanding of the particular characterof the UK financial system and its relationshipwith the regional and local economies. Inimportant ways, the global economic crisis hasilluminated the limitations of the past formulaswe were given for regional success. The papersand discussion in this session contributed to ourevolving understanding of the relationship ofthe local and the regional to the global economy.Both papers and discussion raised issues in twoarenas critical to the economic future of theNorth:

1) What does the new phase of globalisation,significantly shaped by multi-nationalenterprises and financial strategies, mean forformer manufacturing regions?

2) What are pluses and minuses of devolution asa strategy to enable localities and regions torespond more effectively to the globaleconomy?

What does the new phase of globalisationmean for sub-national economies?The papers and symposium presentationsreinforced our understanding of globalisation asevolving and changing, shaped by powerfulactors, regulatory mechanisms, and thestrategies of multi-national enterprises.

Rooted in expanded markets and closercommunication, transportation and culturalconnections, globalisation has constructed amore differentiated investment environment.

As a result of changes in regulatorypolicy and heightened competition for inwardinvestment and intellectual property, thisenvironment has significantly altered since the1990s, Arguably the recent emphasis oninvestment returns (from speculative real estateventures, for example) has contributed to theglobal “meltdown” we are now experiencing. It

has also decreased the possibility of capturingmobile international investment capital for sub-national economic development purposes.

As Tomaney suggested, we have begunto recognise that a fuller understanding ofregional potential and policy options needs totake account of the overall financialisation ofthe global economy (Pike and Pollard, 2009 , theimpacts of which have been particularlyprominent in the UK and US, with criticalimplications for investment and disinvestmentin former manufacturing regions (Epstein, 2004;Milberg and Winkler 2010).

Financialisation affected the ability ofUK and US manufacturing regions to attract orbuild on foreign direct investment. Reliance ontax strategies to attract capital investment, forexample, obscured the degree to which capitalinvestment was a response to real input costs,including labor costs. Analysts of the forcesbehind the “decentering” of productionnetworks in response to financial optionspresented in the period leading up to the globalfinancial crisis have, in fact, noted theincreasingly problematic and complexconnections between place and profit.

According to Desai (2009:1289) forexample

“In the increasingly non-transparent tax-efficient production networks of globalcorporations, it can be quite challenging toclarify the extent to which locations benefit fromthe activities they carry out”.

Certainly the emergence of moreautonomous sub-national economies hasexpanded the alternatives available toenterprises looking for unconventional sourcesof profit in a complex global economy (Andres-Pose and Tijmstra, 2010).

What this suggests is that globalcompetition for inward investment is lessexplicable as a consequence of input costcomparisons (including labor cost) or skillpremia. And, what on the surface may look like“a good deal” in economic development terms,may turn out to have negative long-termconsequences for national or sub-nationaleconomic development. Calculated locationdecisions by multi-national enterprises may, infact, undercut the opportunities for laggingplaces to benefit from trade in such a way thateconomic development can occur. In somecentral and eastern European countries, forexample, off-shoring by multi-nationalenterprises looking for sources of skilled labor(in computer programming, for example) hasreduced the possibilities for entrepreneurshipand the development of agglomerationeconomies based on a distinctive set of regionalskills.

Given this decentering of both supplychains and financial assets, how do we thinkabout devolution, which has been presented asa mechanism to empower localities and regionsto act strategically to improve their economicfortunes in a global economy.

What are the positives and negative effects ofdevolution?Devolution has both positive and negativeconsequences for cities, regions and nations.

On the positive side, national support fordevelopment agencies and broader co-ordinating bodies such as The Northern Way hasprovided regions with investment resources aswell as analytical capacity. These resources andcapacity increase the possibility that sub-national policy makers will focus on localstrategic assets in building their economic base.For strong, rich, sub-national economies, suchas Lombardy and Catalonia, devolutionpotentially enhances the ability to movestrategically in a highly competitive globaleconomy.

For lagging regions, particularly thoseleft out of the financial investment boom of the2000s, devolution can be a more problematicproposition. Resource poverty frequentlymeans a lack of capacity to devise bottom uppolicy measures, creating further disadvantagein a policy regime that relies primarily on bottomup responses to global trends. Bottom upapproaches also frequently rely on cost-basedcompetition with other places rather thanstrategies to identify and build on comparativeadvantages.

There is a key question about therhetoric and reality of devolution. A key issue isthe scope to act. While responsibility andaccountability for economic development andsocial welfare are easily shifted to the sub-national scale, it has to date been only in theunusual case (such as Lombardy in Italy) thatthe region has also been able to exercise controlover key resources, such as higher educationinstitutions or labor law, to give effect to thisresponsibility. Even given the critical role ofenergy in regional economies, national policiesprevent the development of independentmunicipal energy structures. Thus, in the waysthat really count, capacity to innovate in thepolicy arena can be actually quite limited.

As Jose-Enrique Garcilazo suggested inhis commentary, all regions have the potentialto develop strategies to respond to theeconomic challenges that they face. Thatpotential will not emerge, however, from areactive response to the conditions presentedto the region but from the ability to control anduse strategic resources. Although we haveexamples of this kind of strategic control andaction, they are rare because they requireceding power over critical resources, which areperceived as national as well as regional assets.

Demographic Change and its impact onthe Northern regions Professor Philip Rees and Dr Peter Boden,University of Leeds

Philip Rees and Peter Boden highlight how theimpact of key demographic developments,common across the world, are impacting uponthe North of England.

Their review focuses on three key globaldemographic phenomena:

• population growth, as a result of enhancedlongevity and higher birth rates

• population ageing, as a result of enhancedlongevity and declining fertility and

• migration as people moved across continental,national and sub-national borders

They show how these trends interactdifferentially in the North, compared with otherparts of the UK, and how different parts of theNorth are experiencing the trends differentially.

On aggregate, there is some limitednatural population growth in the North.However, this is focused spatially around urbancentres as a result of higher birth rates ofminority communities. International migrationgrowth is buttressing the Northern population,but this largely serves to compensate internalmigration loss from the North within the UK, aspeople move to London and other parts of thecountry. The most significant trend for the Northis that of ageing as life expectancy increases.This is particularly the case in the rural andsuburban parts of the North.

The potential for these trends to haveeconomic impacts can be seen in a number ofareas of policy concern.

In terms of economic activity on thesupply side of the economy, this implies anageing labour force, with the main opportunityfor growth in economic participationincreasingly focused on older, and incomingmigrant, population groups.

On the demand side of the economythere will be an increasing concentration ofwealth and income in the older population,suggesting opportunities for innovation inbusiness sectors aiming to service olderconsumers. But there are also risks, as thedemands on public services and infrastructurewill be increasingly focused on the older agegroups. For the authors a key focus for policy willbe work to ensure people remain healthy,therefore maximising their capacity to

Session 2Turning Points –Demographic change,climate change andtechnological change


contribute economically and socially.For sub-national policy makers these

changes imply a number of areas for focus:

• enhancing economic participation ratesamongst over 50 and migrant populations tomaintain capacity in the labour market• ensuring that key infrastructure such ashousing and transport reflect changingdemands• work to secure long term improvements inhealth to maintain the potential for economicactivity and to minimise public sector costs

Climate Change, Resource Pressures andthe Future for Regional DevelopmentPolicies Professor David Gibbs, University of Hull

David Gibbs identifies climate change as themost important challenge facing sub-nationaldevelopment in the 21st century. He suggeststhat it will require a sustained responsethroughout the whole century to reduceclimate change pressures and to adapt theeconomy to a low carbon model.

He highlights that even were thesechanges to be successfully introduced, thenthere are already climactic changes in thepipeline as a consequence of current warming,and that these will be demanding in terms ofrisks from weather related events such asflooding and wider climate change impactssuch as changing natural cycles. There is a needto pro-actively intervene to defend theeconomy, and adapt places and processes.

In his paper, he traces the developmentof research and policy discussion though thelate 20th century and more recent history. Hehighlights how recent global discussions haveset challenging targets for the reduction ofcarbon emissions which would be a significantdriver to change.

Whilst international and national targetsare challenging, they also have the potential todrive new opportunities in key areas such asenergy generation, and there are key questionsabout the future of supply in areas such as foodand water which will represent bothopportunities and challenges for the Northwhich has assets in both these areas. Morewidely, these targets imply changes to policyacross the agenda from transport, to the designof business processes and the approach tohousing and place development

He raises challenges for the sub-

national scale to successfully address themitigation of climate effects and to adapt theeconomy in response to both low carbonimperatives and changing risks. He alsopromotes a co-ordinated move to thedevelopment of a low carbon economic future.Ensuring policy co-ordination, andmainstreaming climate change across the widerpolicy agenda will be required, but will bechallenging given the level of achievements todate.

He also highlights a growing strand ofthought which suggests that that theseapproaches would not be sufficient to get togrips with climate change. Some commentatorsare arguing that the challenge of climatechange requires a reworking not only of theapproach to development, but also to theobjectives and goals.

Digital Technologies and the KnowledgeEconomy; Implications for policy in theNorth of England Dr Ranald Richardson and Dr EmmanouilTranos, University of Newcastle

Ranald Richardson and Manolis Tranos explorehow the development of a knowledge basedeconomy – with economic value increasinglygenerated by exchanges of knowledge andideas, rather than tangible goods – has affectedthinking about economic development. He citesthe increasing consensus that successful growthstrategies would be focused on these sectors.

He highlights how the focus of sub-national strategies to promote the knowledgeeconomy have tended to be on aspects ofhuman, organisational and social capital ratherthan the infrastructure to enable successfuladaptation to the knowledge economy. Therewas, until recently, a clear assumption thatprivate investment would drive thedevelopment of network technologies.

However, he highlights how morerecent discussion has recognised theimportance of digital technologies as thedominant General Purpose Technology (GPT) inthe knowledge economy, where a GPT isunderstood to be “a pervasive technology withnumerous applications, whose performanceand price continues to improve over time andwhich provides an underpinning platform for aproliferation of other technologies andapplications”.

Analysts suggest that a small number ofGPTs account for a large and increasing share of

Session 2Turning Points –Demographic change,climate change andtechnological change Response


an economy’s growth potential and that, in thiscontext, a cutting edge digital infrastructurerepresents a pre-condition to successfuleconomic development.

The authors propose that informationand communications technologies (ICT) haveachieved this position and that this is now acrucial infrastructure for the knowledgeeconomy at all levels, under-pinning high valueinnovation, and providing a basic infrastructurefor even some of the lowest value tasks. For theNorth, which aims to be increasinglycompetitive in the knowledge economy, there isa need to sustain a focus on both the digitalinfrastructure and the skills and organisationalforms which can make best use of it. Beyond itseconomic applications, the author also highlightthe increasing social importance of ICT in termsof, for example, public service provision andaccess to information and support.

They highlight a range of practicalexamples, from the UK and internationally, ofstrategies for securing this infrastructure withinsub-national territories ranging from public-private partnerships, through to community,shared and linked networks.

To maximise the economic benefits to aplace, key challenges are to promote theavailable capacity to potential users andinvestors, to ensure institutional integrationaround knowledge economy infrastructure, toensure that expertise is linked across space andto ensure that key networks within thefunctional economy are established – betweenand across sectors – with shared availability andcommon access.

Demographic Change, Climate Change andDigital TechnologyJohn Goddard, Emeritus Professor of RegionalDevelopment Studies, CURDS, NewcastleUniversity

Demographic change, climate change and theevolution of the knowledge economy will be keyfactors influencing the development of theNorth.

Collectively they raise at least fourgeneric and inter-related challenges for policyand research. first, how we think about thefuture; second the role of governance in shapingthe future; third how different parts of the Northare affected by each factor and finally how the

North mobilises its resources to meet thechallenges in each domain.

In thinking about the future, we need tobe able to consider the relationship betweenshort run forecasts, and longer term scenarios,and we need the capacity to think across issuesto recognise the inter-relationships betweenissues and trends.

For example, Rees and Bodens work ondemographic change highlights theuncertainties inherent in population forecasting.This is especially the case with the migrationcomponent, but is also so with fertility andmortality. But we need to factor these trends intomore wide-ranging scenarios given the inter-related nature of the Turning Points. For

example, linking the context of migration to thatof climate change there is the possibility ofenvironmentally driven migration from southernEurope and from countries like Bangladesh tothe UK as a result of weather events or sea-levelrise. Unless these risks are successfullymanaged, given the pressures on land andservices in the South East of England, the Northcould become a destination for internationalmigrants.

As regards fertility, birth rates are higherin migrant populations. In relation to mortalitythe effects of obesity and medical technologyimprovements may counteract each other.These possibilities suggest that as we go beyond2030 forecasting becomes more unreliable notleast because of uncertainty around thepossible geo-political, social, economic andenvironmental influences that might bear downon demographic change.

Climate change also enters into thescenarios realm where John Beddington, theGovernment’s Chief Scientist has talked of a“perfect storm” of global population growth,energy and food shortages mixed in with globalwarming. The national Foresight report on theFuture of Land Use sets out alternative scenariosabout how land might be used in the UK in thelight of alternative social, political and regulatoryregimes which might apply globally, nationallyand regionally.

So, key questions are:

• What are the possible alternative scenarios forthe North in terms of population change andclimate change?

• What are the alternative scenarios for theNorth in terms of the role of broad brandinfrastructure?

• What new policy parameters might emergeafter 2030 in terms of, for example, a greateremphasis on a fairer and cleaner economy, wellbeing and health?

The future of the North in the context ofdemography, adaptation to climate change andpresence in the digital economy will dependcritically on how the territorial dimension isembedded into each of these domains.

Many of the government departmentsconcerned with key stages in the demographiccycle adopt policies which are territorially blindwith delivery handed to single purpose agencieswith a narrowly defined remit. Obvious examplesare those dealing with the national border and


Session 2Turning Points –Demographic change,climate change andtechnological change Response

with equality. The work of departments likeWork and Pensions and Health need to be morestrongly linked to sub-national governancestructures to enhance co-ordination aroundthese issues. The same is true of those dealingwith climate change and issues like energy,flooding and food security. And, at the sub-national level, where local authorities are left totry and draw these things together and copewith the consequences of population andclimate change, the capacity to act can varyconsiderably between places.

This is particularly the case given theissue of sub regional variations in the North. Forexample the North exhibits,

• The concentration of migrant population incertain cities and the ageing population inrural areas.

• Local resource opportunities in terms of newand renewable energy.

• The urban/rural divide in digital infrastructure.

These raise important questions about the linkbetween the demographic and environmentaland digital drivers of change and the spatialstructure of the North’s settlement system.What are the assets of places in relation to thesethreats and opportunities?

To varying degrees, Northerninstitutions have been working to address thelinks between place, economic andenvironmental change. These issues werefeaturing in the emerging Integrated RegionalStrategies and continue to be a focus for CityRegions. In the current policy context, is there achallenge emerging to join up place basedstrategies across the North? To what extent arethere complementarities between places withinthe North in the light of these challenges? Howcan technology support the comparative

advantage of different places – for examplesupporting upland communities providing newand renewable energy resources? How can rivercatchment areas be managed across theboundaries of the North to support the supplyof water to a thirsty South?

Where population growth can occur is inpart a matter of national planning policy relatingto the release of land for housing in areas ofdemand, most notably in the greater South East.Yet this is the area which is under most severethreat from climate change. In contrast theNorth has a wide range of assets that could bemobilised to support more sustainable patternsof development provided the infrastructure is inplace. The mobilisation of this potential coulddepend not only on local entrepreneurialresponses but on the success of the regulatoryenvironment. It will also require the mobilisationof intellectual and developmental resources toshape the future agenda. Research and co-ordination have key roles in thinking about andsupporting public and political choices aboutthe future of the North.

There is an important need to followthrough this evidence base, with activities whichcan facilitate reflection on possible futurescenarios for the North. The Foresight Land UseFutures scenarios offer a starting point for workof this nature, and it is important that such anendeavour builds on the firm academicevidence base provided through the NorthernFutures papers. But it should also mobilise linksthe Northern Way has established at aninstitutional level with Northern universities,with Government and with Northern partners,including but not exclusively with the N8consortium to ensure that the full knowledgebase of the North’s academic and researchcommunities is more formally plugged into thedevelopment of the North.

Innovation in the North of England:Drivers, Progress and ProspectsDr Beth Perry, University of Salford

Beth Perry reviews evidence about the role ofinnovation as a driver of productivity andregional growth in the North of England.

She explores the dynamics whichinfluenced its prominence in Northerneconomic development priorities, starting withthe Government decision to relocate theDiamond Synchrotron from Daresbury in theNorth West to the South East at the turn of thecentury. This set back prompted an enhancedregional focus on science and innovation andthe creation of the North West Regional ScienceCouncil, over time creating a wider agendaaround the knowledge economy, and therecognition of the economic potential ofagglomeration economies and economicspillovers.

In the North, the three regions havetaken different innovation journeys. Support forcollaboration between universities and businesswas the starting point for work in Yorkshire. Inthe North West, parallel science and innovationinitiatives have been increasingly integrated intoregional development strategies. Within theNorth East there has been a central role forinnovation as the focus for its economictransition. These differences in approachreflected different economic starting points,varying dynamics and the centrality of existingassets and new opportunities.

A key moment for the North was theintervention of the OECD in 2008, with theirterritorial innovation review which wasfacilitated and informed by inputs from theNorthern Way, the three Regional DevelopmentAgencies and a range of local, business andacademic partners, engaged as part of anincreasingly wide-ranging innovationconstituency.

The OECD set out a comprehensiveassessment of the innovation performance ofthe North of England and provided a strongrationale for collaborative work to:

• enhance the innovation infrastructure acrossthe North

• broaden the understanding and agendaaround innovation, to include broadening theinteraction between innovation sites and localeconomies and

• enable innovation capacity, through thedevelopment of evidence, profile and focus.

She highlights how the innovation assets onwhich the North is now focused articulatestrongly to the changing global economicenvironment reflected in the Turning Pointspapers, offering opportunities for the North inareas such as technological change with thefocus on communications technologies, andclimate change with the focus on low carbonenergy generation.

Economic Strategy, Investment andInfrastructure Andrew Lewis, Director, The Northern Way

Andrew Lewis describes how the economic andpolicy context for investment in the North ofEngland has experienced significant changeover the last 5 years. The impact of the recessionhas affected immediate prospects. It has alsoprompted a fundamental rethink of the termson which investment is likely to be secured inthe future as the economy recovers.

Before the recession the role of thepublic sector in delivering enhanced relativeeconomic performance in the North had beenunder scrutiny, and this had been crystallisedinto a substantial recasting of the approach toregional economic development policy.

Recent reforms brought forward by theLabour Government focused on building a morecoherent and accountable system of economicpolicy co-ordination between national, regionaland local scales, alongside an attempt to breakdown policy silos between different instrumentsof economic policy. The direction of policy wastowards simplification of structures andstrategies, accompanied by an enhanced andpositive role for local government. The reformsaimed to achieve a clear focus on the addedvalue of the role of the public sector ineconomic development, providing an improvedenvironment for private sector involvement andinvestment into key priority projects andprogrammes.

He argues that, for the North of England,changes of this nature are important because ofthe evidence which had been generated aboutthe barriers to greater flows of privateinvestment into the Northern economy.

The Private Investment Commission,which brought together 7 private sector leadersfrom different backgrounds, supported by TheNorthern Way, examined a range of constraintsto private investment in the North – looking atinvestment into businesses, innovation,economic regeneration projects and housing.

They identified how key constraints had heldback the Northern economy in key areasincluding:

• an under-supply of housing • an imbalance of investment into regeneration

and other infrastructure projects and• an apparent inability of SMEs in the North to

secure long term finance for growth.

Lewis highlights that the main focus of theCommission in seeking solutions to theseconstraints was on the fundamentals whichwould make a difference to these problems overthe long term. However, he also highlights theirsignificant concern about the nature andstrength of recovery in the North.

The Commission identified a long termequity-gap between the Greater South East andthe rest of the UK with the 32% of the UKbusiness base based in the South East securing69% of the venture capital investment. Itassessed the evidence about the causes of thisimbalance and developed a suite of potentialresponses. It agreed with the Rowlands Reviewthat there needed to be action taken topromote and manage private investmentopportunities into the regions outside theGreater South East and to move away fromGovernment approaches which focus resourcesinto areas where the economy was alreadystrong.

He reports how the Commission alsohighlighted the need to address structuralproblems in areas like housing and regenerationwhich have been hidden by cyclical patterns inthe market to address the overall attractivenessof the North for business and investment. Thisrequires a coherent strategy and targeted localactions to maximise the potential of places,create a supportive local business environmentand to develop new models of public-privatepartnership to encourage investment and tostimulate investment into projects which canconnect communities to economicopportunities.

Connectivity and the North of EnglandProfessor Alan Harding and Dr. James Rees,University of Manchester

Alan Harding and James Rees highlight howconnectivity and accessibility have becomeincreasingly crucial enablers of economicdynamism in a world dominated by urbaneconomic development and agglomeration.


Session 3Drivers of growth and productivity

Session 3Drivers of growth and productivity

Access to sea and air transport, or beingpositioned at a strategic point in a land-basedtransport system, have historically been keyassets in supporting development. In an openeconomy, they continue to be crucialcontributors to economic developmentprospects.

Good transport connectivity within localeconomic areas enables economic growth andthe management of the congestion whichaccompanies it. And fast and efficient systems oftransport between economic centres enablestronger economic interactions and dynamism.The importance of these physical connectionsseems to be undiminished in a knowledgeeconomy, despite the increasing availability ofmodern information technologies. Theimportance of collaboration and networkingbetween people and firms within knowledgeeconomies means that these two forms ofcommunication are complementary.

Harding highlights the extensiveevidence base which had been developedabout Northern transport priorities as a result ofwork developed by, or supported through theNorthern Way, and the contribution it made towider national work taken forward through theEddington Review.

He suggests that this work has beenpivotal in developing a strong understanding ofthe relationship between economic benefitsand connectivity, and applying this to thespecific circumstances of the North of England.It has encouraged a rigorous analysis of theconnections between transport and processesof agglomeration and has enabled a more clearfocus on the potential of key investments tounlock economic growth in the North. The list ofpriority investments which this work hadidentified, tested against productivity gains, hasbeen increasingly recognised for its potential tonot only improve the economic performance ofthe North, but also to add value to the wider UKeconomy.

There is an emerging consensus viewthat an increase in economic density in theNorth will lead to positive productivity changes,via agglomeration effects – and that this isparticularly the case in those local and regionaleconomies centres with a strong service sectorfocus, such as Leeds and Manchester,

For those centres with other economicprofiles – such as the ports city regions andTowns with lower skills profiles arranged aroundCity Regions the economic priorities withreference to transport are different.

For the former, the diversification ofcomplementary economic sectors around theports to take advantage of their position asgateways makes sense. For the latter, worktowards a package of improvements aroundskills and quality of life, alongside betterconnectivity is required to secure positiveoutcomes. Without this improvement in thelocal economic profile, stronger connectivitycould lead to the exacerbation of economicdisparities. Work by SERC for The Northern Wayhas shown how it is possible that suchconnectivity can trigger positive economicdevelopment through restructuring althoughthe evidence is not conclusive in this regard

In the context of the response to thecurrent recession with the challenge of securingcapital investment, there is an opportunity forfurther work to align work to mobilise privatesector investment to support the delivery ofthese key priority projects. There is also anopportunity to use the prioritisationmethodologies to get a stronger focus on lowcarbon issues in the context of the increasinglyimportant climate change policy driver.

Labour Markets, Trends and Issues:Challenges facing the North of England Anne Green, University of Warwick

Anne Green reviews the key trends and issuesfacing the labour market in the North ofEngland.

She highlights the increasing centralityof work to policy, both as a driver of economicdevelopment but also as a key part of thewelfare reform agenda, with routes into workbeing positioned as the fast and effective routeout of poverty. These two concerns continue toprovide the rationale for a range of policyinitiatives to promote employment, fromincentives such as the national minimum wage,to support through New Deal programmes andwith an increasing focus on mandatoryparticipation in job support programmes.

She describes how the mainprogrammes have focused on individualemployees and job seekers, but also identifieshow there have been more place orientedprogrammes operating at regional, local andneighbourhood scales to create conditions foreconomic and employment growth.

She reviews key contextual debatesabout employment – touching on the capacityof the Northern employment market to providejobs, both in quantity and of quality. She

highlights how the position across the north interms of quality and quantity is differentiatedand how the difference in comparison withother parts of the UK continues to change. Overthe decade to 2007 there was increasing jobgrowth overall, but with a pattern of growth atboth ends of the quality spectrum – in highvalue-added, high wage jobs and low value-added, low wage jobs. Regional differences injob quality were driven by occupationalstructure within sectors rather than differencesin sectoral structure, and that for the North therole of the public sector is traditionally highcompared with other parts of the UK.

She reviews evidence in other relevantareas such as employment conditions, jobquality and occupational welfare, and arguesthat in a time of constraint, occupational welfarewill be increasingly important both the quality ofindividual working lives and as a basis forcompetition in the labour market.

She discusses the increasing emphasison skills in fostering competitiveness andeconomic performance, noting their impact onboth productivity and inclusion. The skillspresent in a local or regional economy arecrucial drivers to its performance and changes inskills governance aim to enable a strongerintegration between economic andemployment policy implementation.

In the final section of her paper shehighlights a range of facts about the labourmarkets in the North highlighting the levels ofeconomic activity and inactivity, the sectoraland occupational structures of employmentand the value of outputs and productivity atNorthern, regional and at city regional scales..

Finally she identifies a range ofopportunities and challenges, linked to the longterm trends explored in the Turning Pointspapers:

• The impact of budgetary constraint on jobs,particularly those in the public sector andthose dependent on it

• The impact of demographic change with theimpact of ageing leading to a focus onextending working lives and on short termmeasures to promote immigration

• The need to ensure that skills are updated toenable the north to address economic themeslike the impact of technology and theoffshoring of capacity

• The speed of economic change and the driverthis creates for adaptability


Drivers of Economic DevelopmentLewis Dykstra, Deputy Head of the Economicand Quantitative Analysis Unit at theEuropean Commission

Innovation, labour markets, public and privateinvestments and connectivity all have a strongsub-national dimension and this is increasinglyseen as an aspect that needs to be taken intoaccount when designing policies and strategiesto address economic development. As a result,the role of city regions in designing andimplementing policies has grown in severalEuropean countries over the past two decades.

In addition, the coordination betweendifferent public policies can enhance the impactof these policies, and can ensure thatunintended consequences and risks aremanaged. For example, whilst there are cleareconomic benefits from targeted transportinvestments, as highlighted by new economicgeography thinking, improving transport linkscan also lead to an outflow of people andeconomic activities, the so-called leaking bylinking. Policy coordination is key to ensure thattransport investment leads to more economicgrowth and not less. For this coordination towork, however, a strong involvement, if notleadership, of the city region or other functionalregions is required.

InnovationThe focus of innovation policy has shifted from anarrow focus on technology to a broaderconcept that includes non-technological andnon-R&D based innovation, such as serviceinnovation, better management, organisationand logistics. This shift has been accompaniedby two other trends: an increasing use ofpartnerships and more decentralisation.Partnerships between the public and privatesectors and researcher organisations promotean innovative milieu, where cooperation iseasier and cross fertilisation happens faster.These partnerships are, however, difficult toestablish at the national level. Therefore, manycountries have developed innovation strategiesthat take into account the innovation strengthand weaknesses of a region. The triple helixapproach used in Sweden and Finland areexcellent examples of this shift towards a morepartnership-based and decentralised approach.

InvestmentCo-ordination of different public and privateinvestments can ensure a higher return. This

coordination needs to happen at multiplegeographical levels. Large scale transportinfrastructure investments are typically decidedat the national level, which usually also financesthe largest share of these investments. Toensure the maximum benefit of theseinvestments, regional and urban economicdevelopment strategies need to anticipatethese increases in accessibility.

The construction of a new high speedtrain link or the improvement of regional publictransport connections can improve theeconomic development of an area. However, forthis to work well a wide range of policies fromplanning, to training, to policies improving thebusiness environment need to be coordinated.This type of coordination can only happen if thecity region plays a strong role in the design andimplementation of these policies. The role of thecity region should not be limited toincorporating central government decisionsabout key investments. Their knowledge of theneeds of the firms in their region and keybottlenecks can steer decisions to the areaswith the highest return.

Labour MarketPolicies addressing labour market issues havealso moved towards a more participatoryapproach including employers, the public andthe voluntary sector. This should allow for abetter skills matching as compared to simpleinvestments in the stock of human capital. Suchan approach can promote the shift to aknowledge economy based on high valueadded activities and high skill jobs. The call formore flexibility and a more individualisedapproach has also led to a greaterregionalisation and decentralisation with morediscretion at lower levels of geography.

The main arguments in favour of thistrend are (1) the different problems faced byregions may require different solutions, (2) abetter knowledge of the local needs andopportunities can help to target policies and (3)a decentralised approach provides moreopportunities for local buy-in as compared to atop down strategy. Nevertheless, to be efficient,such an approach should ensure a coherent,territory-wide strategy with a single programmeof employer engagement.

ConnectivityIncreasing critical economic mass by investingin better transport connections can enable asub-national economy to become more

specialised and thus more productive, alsooffering benefits in terms of globalcompetiveness and resilience in the face ofincreased national and global competition. As aresult, one can argue that increasing theconnections within the North will allow it to finda more competitive niche in the globaleconomy. Nevertheless, improved connectionsto London can also contribute higher economicgrowth if the balance between the cost and thequality of the business environment isfavourable. Therefore, anticipating the highspeed rail connection would require anupgrading of the business environment andcontinued investments in human capital. Anefficient city-regional approach to planningcould ensure a sufficient supply of high qualitylocations at a competitive price. This wouldsignificantly increase the appeal of the North asa competitive location for business investments.

Infrastructure investment decisions,however, should consider different scenarios interms of the price of energy and greenhousegas emissions. As transport infrastructure has alife span of multiple decades, it is quite possiblethat fossil fuels and/or greenhouse gasemissions will become considerably moreexpensive during that period. This could lead toa relative reduction in overall travel and a shiftbetween short haul flights and high speed railand between cars and public transport. Costbenefit analysis based on a single pricingscenario cannot capture the risks of far higherfuture fuel prices.

Session 3Drivers of growth and productivityResponse


Session 4 Contexts and legacies

Land Use: The Built and NaturalEnvironment – An Overview of Trends andDrivers to 2050 Professor Mark Tewdwr-Jones, UniversityCollege London

Mark Tewdwr-Jones provides an analysis of trendsand drivers of change as they effect land use inbuilt and natural environments, drawing fromevidence developed by the Government Officefor Science Foresight Land Use Futures Projectwhich had worked between 2008 and 2010 andreported in March 2010.

He highlights the crucial link betweenland use decisions and the shape and scope ofeconomic activity, and how the development ofland influences the well-bring of individuals, as itshapes the living environment.

He identifies three key drivers of land usechange to be:

• Population levels – population growth isanticipated to reach 71.1 million by 2031implying additional demand for land andresources

• The changing economic environment, withlevels of growth and affluence likely to drivechanges in consumption, including for housingand leisure

• Changing environmental conditions – with big


questions about adaptation to climate change,and increasing pressure to live more sustainablyaffecting the demands on land

He focuses on a range of issues whichfeature in discussions about the sustainability ofexisting approaches to land use. Whilst many ofthese reflect historical and perceptual patterns,they are important in shaping consideration ofland use issues. Given that land is such a crucialasset, understanding and addressing these issueswill be important challenges.

• There appears to be a significant over-estimation of the level of development in the UKcurrently. He cited evidence that 20% of thepopulation believe that over 75% of the land isdeveloped, whereas the true figure is closer to10%

• The balance of land use has remained largely thesame over the last 50 years – with agriculturecontinuing to account for 70% of the landcompared with 12% for woodland and 10% forurban, although he pointed out that theintensity had accelerated, and that there weresome grounds for contesting of the statistics.

• That because of the combination ofdevelopment and climate change impacts thereare risk management issues to address. Anincreasing proportion of residential and businesslocations are vulnerable to events like flooding,whilst at the same time these risks will affectother functions which require land includingwater and food supply, and energy security

• That the balance of pressure and availability isgeographically differentiated with significantpressures in the South East and opportunities inthe North and Midlands for both business andresidential development.

• That there are opportunities for more creativeland use through stronger governance, morecreative thought about mutli-functionality ofdevelopment (for example by investing insustainable infrastructure) and proper valuing ofthe contribution of eco-system functions to theeconomy

Diverse Places, Diverse Responses Professor Mike Coombes, Newcastle University

In his paper, Mike Coombes reflects on thediversity of the places within the economicgeography of the North of England, andhighlights that for each place its developmentalhistory is a powerful factor in its response tochange. This ‘path dependency’ implies that thepotential for change will be realised over the longterm, requiring a long term perspective inplanning and economic development.

He also highlights how this spatialdiversity challenges generalised approaches topolicy. Differences in scale, character and socio-economic profile require differentiatedapproaches to intervention, and these are rarelyconstrained within localised or administrativeareas meaning that the impact of externalitiesand spillovers will be crucial drivers of changewithin localities. In the context of economicdevelopment, he suggests that sub-regionaleconomic areas are the scale of most interest asthey reflect the flows and connections within themajority of business relationships and within thelabour market.

Commentators have sought to developtypologies which can make some sense of thegeneric interventions which can provoke growthand development. Whilst this is difficult in such adiverse geography some have been proposed.From an economic point of view, the dominanceof regional centres such as Manchester, Leedsand Newcastle is crucial in driving growth in boththe core of the functional economy, and thoseplaces which surround it who can benefit directlyand indirectly from the development of the core.But there are also other characterisationsavailable, including more constrained cities whoare not growing as quickly as their peers, and whoplay a different role in the wider economy.

And then there are free-standing placessuch as York, Chester and Darlington where theymaintain differentially successful economies, withthe key factor influencing their successfuldevelopment being the level of development ofinherent skills and capabilities, which providecapacity to both attract investment and developendogenously.

For Coombes, successful responses toexternal changes such as the Turning Pointsidentified within this programme of researchrequire a response which recognises thesedivergent factors and varied opportunities forgrowth. Change is most likely to be secured bylong term development processes which build onassets and capacities rather than thetransformation through initiatives like the NewTowns policy which was a feature of policy in thepast. And the outcomes are likely to be equallydivergent to the starting point.

The Governance of Economic Developmentin Northern England Professor Andy Pike, Newcastle University

Andy Pike describes the evolution of debate andresearch about the structure of governancerequired to most successfully support economicdevelopment in territories like the North ofEngland.

He highlights a shift in focus for sub-national economic development policy acrossthe developed economies. Policy is moving awayfrom approaches based on subsidy and incomeredistribution, towards a mix of policies whichpromote competitiveness and the identificationand fostering of growth potential. This issupported by analysis from across the OECD thatthere are opportunities for growth anddevelopment in places with different economiccharacteristics which can be identified andexploited.

To seek to secure these opportunities,across the member states of the OECD there is anincreasing dynamic to decentralise structuresand policies, enabling the integration of decisionmaking and co-ordination of public policy at localand regional scales. He suggests that, in thecontext of the issues raised in the Turning Points –such as the response to globalisation of theeconomy, the recession and climate change –this is a policy direction which is likely to continue.

Common areas for policy focus link tochallenges such as infrastructure, skills andinnovation support. Successful interventions aimto stimulate increasing focus on the assets andeconomic potential of an area, and to ensure thatbarriers to growth, such as accessibility to marketsare addressed. And because of the differentstructures of governance within states across theOECD – ranging from very centralised countriessuch as the UK to decentralised and federalmodels like Germany – different structures ofmulti-level governance have been developed toaim to secure successful prioritisation and co-ordination. The result is an uneven approachacross the OECD membership with differentgovernance models in place. Pike highlightsevidence that one of the common characteristicsis the importance of democratic accountability inthe process of defining objectives and goals.

Against this background, the history ofsub-national economic governance in the UK hasbeen patchy with high levels of centralisation andlow levels of local and regional capacity to deliverco-ordinated responses of this type. There hasnot been a strong and stable position for anysustained period.

There have been identifiable phases ofpolicy development including the UrbanDevelopment Corporations and GovernmentOffices of the 1980’s Conservative Government,and devolution to the 3 Nations anddecentralisation to the English regions since1997 under Labour, which further evolved to afocus on City Regions and Integrated Regionalstrategies in the second half of the 2000’s. Thepolicies of the Coalition Government signal amove away from regions and to more local scales,although the detail of this change of emphasis stillneed to be revealed.

Session 4 Contexts and legaciesResponse


It’s the Governance, stupid Baron Frankal and Chris Pope, Manchester’s Commission for the NewEconomy

Compelling evidence exists of the correlationbetween good governance and economicgrowth and development, and this was theproposition at the centre of this “Turning Point”session, and in particular the paper from theSpatial Economics Research Centre’s JohnTomaney and Andy Pike . They provided goodsupport for growth and prosperity being at theheart of good governance, but noted that thecreation of such “lasting, stable and effectivemechanisms” has proved elusive. Indeed.

The discussion that followed the paper’spresentation used the Commission for the NewEconomy as an innovative example of just such agrowth orientated structure. Whilst a majority ofGreater Manchester’s ten Leaders sit on its board, amajority of that board is private sector, includingthe Chair. This enterprising structure puts long-term sustainable economic growth above all else,is private sector lead in concept and action, but hasthe full confidence of its co-terminus LocalAuthorities. It is, perhaps, exactly the kind of modelthat needs to be evaluated in terms of a basis forconstructing the latest sub-national policyincarnation - Local Economic Partnerships (LEP’s).

LEPs were but a glint in a future-Minister’seye at the time Pike and Tomaney prepared theirpaper, but it sets a high bar for these institutionsas they emerge. Its starting point is thatcompared to international best practice in localeconomic development, the UK has a poorrecord. Compared to other countries, sub-national policymaking remains virtually non-existent in our incredibly centralised state. This isingrained in our national consciousness, with amajority of talent flowing to London and theproductivity gap between London and the SouthEast and the rest of the UK widening with timethrough various generations of governmentpolicy. Ergo, we need to do something differently.

As the Turning Points papers make clear,economic conditions are developing rapidly; achanging population, environmental concernsand massive fiscal contraction in the public andprivate sector too.

Good governance brings evidence, logic,analysis and robust strategy to the fore,sidelining short-term political considerations(local as well as national) for the greater good ofkey objectives – in our case the pursuit ofeconomic growth.

It would recognise for example that weare in the Asian century, and so investment therenow, however difficult or slow burn, is going topay the greatest dividends, not least through firstmover advantages. The baton is passing beforeour very eyes: can we condition our supply (mostimportantly of knowledge) to meet theirdemand by the national polity enabling placeslike Manchester to have its own trade strategy?

Strong, stable governance prioritises,reaps opportunity and deals with challenges – inthat order. There remains the much debatedquestion of what level for such governance, andMike Coombes’ classification is an importantcontribution to that debate, highlighting howeach place is different and must probably facechallenges in different ways, often co-operatingwith other places as required by economicchallenges.

A one size does not fit all philosophydoes not, though, sit easily with tidy-minded civilservants who seek comprehensive solutions.How could it be that a function might be done atregional level in one place, at city regional level inanother and that another still might not haveany capacity at all, requiring a Whitehall solutionfilleted of the country’s strongest parts?Patchworks and postcode lottery syndromecreate political dread, but surely a world whereelsewhere the fittest places sprint faster and aresystematically encouraged to do so for thegreater good, it is an inevitability that the priorityfor policy should be empowering places thathave capacity, ambition and structures ofaccountability in place to achieve economicgrowth.

Mark Tewdwr-Jones’s very valuablecontribution provides a powerful narrative aboutthe role of land. Again, the appropriategovernance structure, at the right level, is crucialto having the right policies in place to ensureplanning policy works towards the economicgrowth imperative. All too often it is an inhibitor,as the planning tail wags the economic dog. In aworld of ever less public subsidy, the ability of aplace to leverage its assets, foremost of whichwill be land, becomes critical.

There are six EU Members States smallerthan Manchester, and so the potential is clear, asis acceptance of the need to get governanceright. For us, this is surely the right level andtightness of unitary economic interest topioneer stable and effective economicdevelopment mechanisms for a new age, wherepolicy innovation and entrepreneurship andradical public sector reform are desperatelyneeded, not least to balance the books andensure effective delivery continues andaccelerates. Tomaney and Pike contend thatpolicy has moved tentatively from incomeredistribution to regional competitiveness.However the logical response to the continuedfailure to close the UK’s still-growing productivitygap is surely much more radical accelerationalong that path to somewhere approaching thedevolution most economic centres in thewestern world have long prospered from. Betterplaces will be ready to pick up that baton and runwith it, if only they are allowed to do so.


ConferenceAttendees

Prof Peter Ache, Centre for Urban and RegionalStudies, HelsinkiSam Bacon, Core CitiesProf David Bailey, Chair, Regional StudiesAssociation and University of Birmingham Richard Baker, The Northern WayPeter Boden, University of LeedsFrank Bowley, BISTom Bridges, Ove ArupProf Chris Brooks, Science Po, ParisProf Paul Cheshire, Department of Geographyand Environment, LSEProf Susan Christopherson, Department of Cityand Regional Planning, Cornell UniversityProf Mike Coombes, CURDS, Newcastle UniversityEd Cox, IPPRMartin Crookston, Freelance ConsultantProf Gordon Dabinett, Town and RegionalPlanning, Sheffield UniversityJames Davies, Tyne & Wear City RegionDr Stuart Dawley, CURDS, Newcastle UniversityScott Dickinson, SQWLewis Dijkstra, European CommissionDr Kieron Flannagan, Manchester Institute forInnovation ResearchSimon Foy, Yorkshire ForwardBaron Frankal, Manchester EnterprisesJose Enrique Garcilazo, OECDProf Dave Gibbs, Centre for City and RegionalStudies and Hull Environment ResearchInstitute, HullProf John Goddard, Newcastle UniversityDr Sara Gonzalez, Leeds University, School of Geography,Anne Green, Warwick UniversityRupert Greenhalgh, CLESNigel Guy, Yorkshire CitiesProf Alan Harding, Institute for Political andEconomic Governance, Manchester UniversityProf Robert Hassink, Economic GeographyResearch Unit, Kiel University, GermanyProf Louise Heathwaite, Co-Director, Centre for Sustainable Water Environment,Lancaster UniversityDr Nick Henry, GHK, Principal ResearchConsultantJohn Holden, Manchester EnterprisesProf Ray Hudson, Durham UniversityNicola Hughes, The Northern WayDr Sarah Jackson, N8 ResearchClare Johnson, Yorkshire Futures, DirectorAlexandra Jones, Work FoundationMike Keoghan, BISMick King, Hull and the Humber Ports

Andrew Lewis, The Northern WayBeverley Linsley, The Northern WayAllan Little, One North EastJohn Lowther, Tees ValleyHakim Mbanzamihigo, Leeds MetropolitanUniversityDave Moorcroft, LiverpoolHugh Morgan-Williams OBE, The Northern WayChris Murray, Core CitiesLes Newby, Yorkshire ForwardPeter O’Brien, Tyne and WearDr Christianne Ormston, The Northern WayProf Henry Overman, Department ofEnvironment, LSEAlice Owen, Sustainable DevelopmentCommissionProf Michael Parkinson, John Moores, LiverpoolKevin Peacock, LiverpoolBeth Perry, Centre for Urban and RegionalFutures, SalfordDr Andy Pike, CURDS, Newcastle University,SQWSimon Pringle, SQWProf Phil Rees, University of LeedsDr Ranald Richardson, CURDS, NewcastleUniversityProf Brian Robson, ManchesterProf Andreas Rodriquez-Pose, Department ofGeograpahy and Environment, LSEGillian Roll, One North EastPaul Rubenstein, Stockport CouncilProf Mark Tewdwr-Jones, Bartlett School ofPlanning and ArchitectureProf John Tomaney, CURDS, Newcastle UniversityEmmanouil Tranos, Newcastle UniversityMatt Waltho, NWDAMartine Winder, Central LancashirePeter Winter, NWDADave Wood, CLGSylvia Yates, Sheffield City Region

The full papers and other documentsmentioned in this supplement are available for free download at:www.thenorthernway.co.uk/northernfutures

final report of proceedings

Education

professor john tomaney

key priority projects

global nancial crisis

greater south east

national policy makers

private investment commission

south east

turning points