final draft 2201 david parsons revised

7/25/2019 Final Draft 2201 David Parsons Revised

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David Parsons

Professor Anne Mallory

ENGL 2201 Project 1 Final Draft Revision

28 February 201

A Ne! A"e of #ec$nolo"y

%t is obvious t$at t$e recent inte"ration of tec$nolo"y in society $as definitely $el&ed $u'anity advance in 'ore

!ays t$an !e can count( )o!ever* a $u"e to&ic of discussion $as been t$e &otential for an advance'ent of tec$nolo"y t$at

sur&asses $u'an intelli"ence* !$ic$ can $a&&en as soon as t$e year 202+,Dia'andis-( #$is leads 'any scientists to

!onder $o! t$is level of tec$nolo"y can beco'e an issue of concern rat$er t$an a tool for "ro!t$ !it$in society( .o'e

sc$olars are !ary of t$e &ossibility of $u'ans bein" subjected to t$e 'otivations of A% once $u'an/level intelli"ence is

sur&assed( t$ers believe it is not a concern and t$is tec$nolo"y can do not$in" but $el& us( #$e evidence and reason for

s&eculation 'ust be considered for bot$ sides of t$e discussion( #$e best ans!er to t$e &roble'* currently* is to conduct

'ore researc$ on t$e 'et$ods t$at "o into buildin" t$e A% correctly* and t$e !ay t$e A% !ill function after bein" co'&leted(

ne side of t$e discussion &oints out t$at tec$nolo"y advance'ent is beneficial to t$e !ay !e could utilie t$e

care tain" of &atients in need of 'edical $el&( Patric 3 4i"er &oints out t$e benefits of suc$ tec$nolo"y by statin"5 6A% $as

t$e &otential to revolutionie 'edicine7 and 6A% syste's !ill soon be able to trac t$e latest 'edical researc$ and ta& into

t$e observations and e&eriences of ot$er doctors to &roduce statistically/validated treat'ent o&tions7,4i"er- Patric is

basically sayin" t$at A% could soon re&lace 'uc$ of t$e !or t$at a doctor does* 'ain" a &$ysicians !or easier( #$e A%

!ill be able to access a database !it$ t$e 'ost u&/to/date 'edical no!led"e* increasin" t$e o&&ortunity for various for's

of no!n treat'ent ,4i"er-(

#$is tec$nolo"y is not only seen benefitin" t$e 'edical co''unity* but t$e "eneral &o&ulation as !ell( Peter

Dia'andis* an en"ineer and &$ysician* &oints out i'&ortant tec$nolo"y advance'ents t$at are to e'er"e in t$e net t$ree

years( 69e:ll $ave revolutions in $o! !e 'ana"e cli'ate c$an"e* redesi"n and de'ocratie education* 'ae scientific

discoveries* levera"e ener"y resources* and develo& solutions to difficult &roble's7 ,Dia'andis-( Dia'andis is sayin" t$at


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'any of t$e !ays !e "o about solvin" everyday &roble's !ill c$an"e as tec$nolo"y continues to e&and into areas t$at

'any of us consider to be si"nificant to t$e "eneral &ublic(

n t$e ot$er side of t$e s&ectru'* t$ere are e&erts !$o are se&tical of t$e soon/to/be advance'ent of tec$nolo"y(

Patric Lin is t$e director of t$e et$ics and e'er"in" science "rou& at ;alifornia Polytec$nic


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t$at t$ese A% 'ac$ines could e'er"e rat$er soon( Nic ostro' also brin"s u& t$e &roble' !it$ A% in t$e future( 6#$ese

'ac$ines bein" s'arter t$an us !ill 'ean t$ey !ill "et !$at #)EC !ant( #$is 'eans t$at !e !ill $ave a future based on

t$e &references of t$is A%7,ostro'-( )e is sayin" t$at basically A% !ill fi"ure out !ays around $u'anity:s confine'ent*

once it beco'es s'art enou"$( )e &ro&oses $is solution to t$e issue5 6% believe t$e ans!er $ere is to fi"ure out $o! to

create intelli"ent A% suc$ t$at even if it esca&es* it is still safe because it is funda'entally on our side* because it s$ares our

values( % see no ot$er !ay around t$is difficult &roble'( 9e s$ould create an A% t$at uses t$is intelli"ence to learn our

values* t$at !ay it $as t$e 'otivation to &refor' actions t$at it &redicts !e !ould a&&rove of7,ostro'-(

Daniel De!ey is a researc$er on &otential riss fro' advance'ents in A%( )is &ublication acno!led"es t$e ris

t$ere is for A% beco'in" intelli"ent and brin"s u& a fe! !ays t$at &recautionary 'easures can be taen to co'bat t$is

&otential ris(7%f* at so'e &oint in t$e future* eac$ A% develo&'ent &roject carries so'e a'ount of eistential ris fro' fast

taeoff* our c$ances of survival !ill decay e&onentially until t$e &eriod of ris is ended7,De!ey-( De!ey is basically

sayin" t$at if fast taeoff carries a ris* t$e $u'an &o&ulation !ill be at stae until so'et$in" is done about t$e &roble'(

#$is is so'et$in" i'&ortant to consider* because eac$ e&andin" &roject !it$ A% !ill liely cause so'e &roble's unless

&reviously accounted for and strate"ically co'bated a"ainst( #$is also adds to ostro':s &oint t$at eac$ &roble' 'ust be

carefully ea'ined before 'ovin" on to t$e net advance'ent5 6#$e ris is t$at so'ebody fi"ures out $o! to crac t$e first

c$allen"e* !it$out also $avin" craced t$e c$allen"e of ensurin" safety fro' t$e first c$allen"e7,ostro'-( ostro' is

sayin" t$at eac$ c$allen"e co'es !it$ its o!n riss* and t$at t$e riss 'ust be overco'e alon" !it$ t$e c$allen"e so t$at

everyt$in" re'ains safe(

9$en !e create A%* $o! can !e be sure every &ossibility of outco'e $as been covered? Accordin" to Daniel

De!ey* t$ere are several areas t$at need to be studied before atte'&tin" to create A%( #$ere s$ould be to&ics t$at t$e creators

$ave etensive no!led"e about !$en creatin" beneficial A%( De!ey e&lains t$at A% 'ay fail as a result of lac of

no!led"e in >erification ,6Did % build t$e syste' ri"$t?7-* validity ,6Did % build t$e ri"$t syste'?7-* security* and control

,bein" able to 'odify t$e syste' after it be"ins to o&erate-,De!ey-( #$is is certainly i'&ortant* as David ;ole adds fro'


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t$e &ersonal intervie!5 69e need to no! $o! to control every &art of t$e intelli"ence before !e build on it* t$is is !$y

every breat$rou"$ s$ould be taen one ste& at a ti'e* before it "ets out of $and7,;ole-( David ;ole also $ad an interestin"

insi"$t on $o! tec$nolo"y $as "otten out of $and in t$e *( #$e ato'ic bo'b !as develo&ed at very early ti'e* and

resulted in t$e destruction and sufferin" of a society* even several "enerations after t$e bo'bin" of 3a&an too &lace in

1+( 6Cou could ar"ue t$at civiliation !as not ready to !ield t$e a'ount of &o!er t$at t$e ato' bo'b brou"$t to t$e

table( Per$a&s t$ere s$ould $ave been 'ore researc$ conducted on t$e severity of t$is !ea&on( #$e !$ole situation s$ould

$ave been "iven 'ore attention and a&&roac$ed !it$ etre'e caution( #$e sa'e lessons can be a&&lied to t$e tec$nolo"y

industry !it$ t$e &ossibility of etraordinary conse@uences7,;ole-( % a"ree !it$ Mr( ;ole in t$e fact t$at t$is situation

s$ould be a&&roac$ed !it$ t$e 'ost caution &ossible( % believe t$at t$e !orld could not afford for develo&ers to overloo

any detail !$atsoever* !$ic$ is !$y researc$ in every as&ect of A% 'ust be or"anied before any furt$er develo&'ent is

initiated(

Nic ostro'* conducted a survey a'on" ot$er e&erts in t$e co'&uter science field and "ot so'e o&inions on

t$e &ossibilities in advance'ents of A%57#$e 'edian esti'ate of res&ondents !as for a one in t!o c$ance t$at $i"$/level

'ac$ine intelli"ence !ill be develo&ed around 200/20+0* risin" to a nine in ten c$ance by 20+( E&erts e&ect t$at

syste's !ill 'ove on to su&er/intelli"ence in less t$an B0 years t$ereafter( #$ey esti'ate t$e c$ance is about one in t$ree

t$at t$is develo&'ent turns out to be badH or etre'ely badH for $u'anity7,ostro'- .o essentially t$e study concludes

t$at collectively* e&erts t$in t$at $i"$ level intelli"ence 'i"$t be develo&ed in t$e net 2+/+0 years and su&er/intelli"ence

in less t$an B0 years after t$at $i"$ level advance'ent( #$e e&erts also believe t$at t$ere is a fair c$ance t$at t$is could

actually beco'e a &roble' for $u'anity( .o* t$ere are a variety of o&inions on t$is to&ic * and eac$ ans!er is derived fro' a

set of @uestions involvin" a !ide ran"e of factors includin" lar"e .cale data sets* faster co'&utin" $ard!are* and artificial

neural net!ors( %ncor&oratin" t$ese factors involves a $i"$ level of scrutiny and tec$nical evaluation* !$ic$ could be !$y

t$ere $as not been a definite ans!er to t$is &roble'(


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Alt$ou"$ t$ere cannot be a definite ans!er to t$is &roble' at t$is ti'e* % can !it$out a doubt a"ree !it$ Nic

ostro' on t$e subject of A% 'otivation( %t is etre'ely i'&ortant t$at !e $ave an idea of !$at $o! !e !ant to A% to

be$ave and interact !it$ us( 9e s$ould 'ae sure t$at before t$e A% "ets too &o!erful* it can learn our 'orals and values*

so t$at it actually !ants to create t$e sa'e !orld t$at !e do( 9e can also benefit fro' Daniel De!ey:s ideas about studyin"

validity* verification* control* and security so t$at !e $ave t$e tools to ensure t$at !e can carry out eac$ objective ,!$en

develo&in" $u'an/lie intelli"ence- safely and effectively !it$out causin" $ar' to ourselves( Des&ite t$e fact t$at all

e&erts do not a"ree $o! severe t$e &otential riss 'ay be* % believe everyone in t$e industry can a"ree t$at !e s$ould

advance !it$ etre'e discretion and scrutiny(


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Works Cited

Bostrom, NickWhat happens when our computers get smarter than we are? TedTalk, Science and

Technology. 2 !pril 2"#$

%ole, &a'id. (ersonal )nter'iew. #" *e+ruary 2"#

&ewey, &aniel. -ong Term Strategies /or 0nding 01istential isk /rom *ast Takeo3.- Risks of Articial

Intelligence$ 42"#$56 #7#. Daniel Dewey. )n isks o/ !rti8cial )ntelligence, 9. :;ller 4ed.5, 2"#$., 2"#$. We+. #

*e+. 2"#

&iamandis, (eter. -Where !rti8cial )ntelligence )s Now and What


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ussell, Stuart, &aniel &ewey, and :a1 Tegmark. -esearch (riorities /or o+ust and Bene8cial !rti8cial

)ntelligence.-AI aga!ineWinter 2"#$6 #"$7#. (rint.

final draft 2201 david parsons revised

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