field research facility

US Army Engineer Research and Development Center

Established in 1977 to Advance Coastal Knowledge Through Research and Discovery

• Observations

• Computer Modeling

• Model Validations

Field Research FacilityField Research Facility

US Army Engineer Research and Development Center FEMA REGION III FEMA REGION III

COASTAL STORM SURGE PROJECT OVERVIEWCOASTAL STORM SURGE PROJECT OVERVIEW

November 1, 2011

FEMA-USACE Coastal Hazard WorkshopUS Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC)

Jeff HansonU.S. Army Corps of Engineers Field Research Facility, Duck, NC


Project Objectives

Development Phase (2008-2011)

Develop and validate a storm surge modeling capability for the assessment of inundation risk in Region III

• Consistent 10-m DEM for the region

• Extratropical and tropical storm hazard

• Integrated flood risk modeling system

• Comprehensive system validation

Flood Levels 10-, 50-, 100-, & 500-year

Return Period Analysis- Hurricanes

- Extratropical Storms

Storm Surge Modeling

Winds

Waves Water Levels

Storm Forcing-Extratropical Wind Fields

- Hurricane TracksHigh-Res

Bathy / TopoMesh

Production Phase (2011)Assess the Region III flood hazard values for 10-, 50-, 100- and 500-yr return periods

• Extratropical and tropical storm production runs

• Extratropical return period analysis (EST)

• Tropical return period analysis (JPM)

• Synthesis of results


Project Partners

University of North Carolina – Water level modeling guidance

Renaissance Computing Institute – DEM, Modeling System, Production, GIS Viewer, Analysis

Elizabeth City State University – GIS Displays

Applied Research Associates – Synthetic Hurricanes, JPM Return Period Analysis

ARCADIS – DEM, Modeling Mesh

Oceanweather – Extratropical and Hurricane Wind Fields

RAMPP – Project Review, Mapping Phase Lead

USACE – Project Oversight, DEM, Model Validations, Extratropical Analysis, Mapping review


Project Partners

Leveraging of Capability and Modeling Infrastructure for Region III Study

North Carolina Floodplain Mapping Project Partners:


Project Organization

RAMPP

J. Gangai (Dewberry)B. Batten (Dewberry)

USACE Storm Surge Project Manager

J. Hanson (USACE-FRF)M. Forte (USACE-FRF)

J. Roughton (USACE-FRF)

Advisory Board

R. Luettich (UNC-CH)B. Ebersole (USACE-CHL)

J. Smith (USACE-CHL)K. White (USACE-CRREL)

K. Galluppi (RENCI)M. Powell (DE)

NAP, NAB, NAO

Bathy / Topo

M. Forte (USACE-FRF)L. Stillwell (RENCI)

J. Miller (NAP)M. Hudgins (NAO)

P. Moye (NAO)M. Schuster (NAB)

J. Scott (NAB)H. Roberts (ARCADIS)J. Atkinson (ARCADIS)

Storm Specification

P. Vickery (ARA) V. Cardone (Oceanweather)

A. Cox (Oceanweather)

Modeling System

B. Blanton (RENCI)P. Vickery (ARA)

V. Cardone (Oceanweather)A. Cox (Oceanweather)

GIS Database

K. Gamiel (RENCI)B. Blanton (RENCI)L. Stillwell (RENCI)

M. Forte (USACE-FRF)J. Yuan (ECSU)

FEMA Program Manager

Robin Danforth FEMA / DHS Region III

Validation

H. Wadman (USACE-FRF)J. Hanson (USACE-FRF)

B. Blanton (RENCI)


FEMA Region III Study Area

Region III Population Density

• Four states

• Five metropolitan areas


FEMA Region III Study Area

• Four states plus District of Columbia

• Five metropolitan areas

• Complex coastal geomorphology

• Delaware River/Bay system - Tidal up to Trenton, NJ - 782 square mile bay - Strategic shipping and military port

• Chesapeake bay - Third largest estuary in world - 11,000 miles of tidal shoreline - Major shipping, seafood and military ports


High Resolution Bathymetry and Topography

Digital Elevation Model (DEM)

• Data assimilation through USACE districts

• Use Lidar for topography where available

• Region initially divided into 20 tiles

• Consistent bathy/topo surface with 10-m horizontal resolution

Region III DEM10-m

Resolution

Geographic Tiles



Unstructured Modeling Mesh

• Mesh triangulation through alignment with DEM features

ADCIRC Modeling Mesh

Project Site



Unstructured Modeling Mesh

• Mesh triangulation through alignment with DEM features

• Interpolation of DEM elevations to mesh

• Manual insertion of control points

Elevations (m)


Storm Surge Modeling System

Wind and Pressure Fields

HBL Hurricane ModelOWI Extratropical Reconstructions

Water Levels

ADCIRC Coastal Circulation and Storm Surge Model

Waves/ Radiation Stress

unSWAN Basin and Coastal Waves Radiation Stress

Coupling

SWAN


Region III Modeling System Region III Modeling System ValidationValidation

Isabel

Isabel


Storm Forcing

Identify and reconstruct historical extratropical storms in Region III

• Selection based on water levels at 10 stations

• Top ranked 30 historical storms 1975-2008

• Nor’Ida (Nov ‘09) added as 31st Storm

• Kinematic reanalysis of all wind fields

• Careful validation against historical records

Reconstructed pressure fieldsFebruary 1998 Event – A top-ranked storm


Storm Forcing

Develop a representative set of synthetic hurricanes

Modeled TracksVA/DE/NJ

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

0 20 40 60 80 100

CDF

Central Pressure Difference (mbar)

MP 2300

SimulatedHistorical

Central PressureDifference

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

-180 -135 -90 -45 0 45 90 135 180

CDF

Heading

MP 2300

Historic

Simulated

Heading

• Record of 20 hurricanes in 60 years insufficient for 100- and 500-yr computations

• ARA 100,000-yr synthetic storm set used to extract 156 representative storm tracks

• Demonstrated validity with comparisons to historic data


Storm Forcing

• Record of 20 hurricanes in 60 years insufficient for 100- and 500-yr computations

• ARA 100,000-yr synthetic storm set used to extract 156 representative storm tracks

• Demonstrated validity with comparisons to historic data

• Joint Probability Method (JPM) hurricane track parameters assigned

• Windfield reconstruction with HBL Tropical cyclone windfield model

0

2

4

6

8

1 10 100 1000

Surg

e (m

)

Return Period (years)

5663jpm

stochastic

0

2

4

6

8

1 10 100 1000

Surg

e (m

)


5667jpm

stochastic

0

2

4

6

8

1 10 100 1000

Surg

e (m

)Return Period (years)

6251jpm

stochastic

0

2

4

6

8

1 10 100 1000

Surg

e (m

)


6492jpm

stochastic

JPM vs. 100,000 yr Dataset

HBL Windfield

Develop a representative set of synthetic hurricanes


Production Runs

Inundation LevelsStorm Selection

Region III Solution Browser

• GIS interface to results

• Google-earth displays of storm tracks, model output fields and return periods

Computations

• 28 Extratropical Storms

• 156 Hurricanes


Statistical Analysis

Combined Analysis

• Extratropical water levels

• Hurricane water levels

• Tidal contributions

• 10, 50, 100, and 500-yr levels

Combined 100-yr Water Levels (m) Lewes, DE

Return Period

Su

rge

Le

ve

lsExtratropical Water Levels


Project Review

Project TeamResults

Advisory GroupOversight

RAMPPReview

ERDC Review

Project Reports

Peer-reviewed by National ExpertsPeer-reviewed by National Experts


Project Reports1.1 DEM

Coastal Storm Surge Analysis:Final Report

1.2 Modeling System 1.3 Storm Forcing

3. Final Analysis2. Model Validation

• Document methods and results

• Multi-tiered reviews

• Released as formal reports


Extra-Tropical Storm Ida, Delaware

field research facility

Documents