fidelity investment outlook oct 2014

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INVESTMENT OUTLOOK Fidelity Personal Investing’s market and investment view “The bull market that began more than five years ago is maturing. The latter stages of multi-year rallies can be rewarding for investors but the risks also increase. This is a time for an even greater focus on where the best returns can be found and where the pitfalls might be lying in wait. The outlook is for positive but probably more volatile markets.” By Tom Stevenson, Investment Director October 2014

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Fidelity Personal Investing’s market and investment view and outlook from Fidelity's Investment Director, Tom Stevenson. Focus: equities, bonds, property, commodities and cash, with a equity region focus over US, Japan, UK, Europe and emerging markets.https://www.fidelity.co.uk/static/pdf/personal/markets-insights/investment-outlook-oct-2014.pdf

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  • Investment OutlOOkFidel i t y Per sonal Inves t ing s marke t and inves tment v iew

    The bull market that began more than five years ago is maturing. The latter stages of multi-year rallies can be rewarding for investors but the risks also increase. This is a time for an even greater focus on where the best returns can be found and where the pitfalls might be lying in wait. Theoutlook is for positive but probably more volatile markets.

    By tom stevenson, Investment Director

    October 2014

  • 2executive summary

    Please note the views in this document should not be seen as investment advice. If you are unsure about the suitability of an investment, you should speak to an authorised financial adviser.

    Asset classesCurrent View

    3 Month Change

    equities the backdrop remains supportive for equities and they are still the preferred asset class even if volatility may start to rise from todays low base.Bonds

    Bonds have performed better than expected this year thanks to investors appetite for income. that will continue to provide the bulk of total returns. Capital growth looks unlikely.

    Property

    the yields available on commercial property continue to look attractive but some investors are starting to make assumptions about rental growth that may prove over-optimistic.

    Commodities

    After a difficult year for commodities, prices have fallen so far in some cases that they are starting to interest contrarians. A rising dollar will tend to put a cap on values, though.

    Cash

    As the bull market matures, the risks also rise. that means that the chance of acorrection, especially as interest rates rise, increases. keeping some cash onhand to take advantage makes sense.

    Equity regions

    Current View

    3 Month Change

    us

    the us should continue to lead markets higher although the risks and rewards are more finely balanced than they were as valuations have expanded and monetary tightening approaches.

    Japan

    Japan has recovered the ground lost earlier in the year despite evidence that the recent sales tax hike hit the economy hard. Reforms, the return of inflation and valuations are positives.

    uk

    the uk is the bright spot in europe economically. For investors too, it looks attractive, with valuations lagging those in the us. A weaker pound and slower monetary tightening will help.

    europe

    the mismatch between the markets re-rating and an absence of meaningful earnings growth is a negative. But the implementation of quantitative easing should underpin shares.

    emerging markets (inc. Asia ex Japan)

    the unexpected performer in 2014, emerging markets, especially Asia, have defied the sceptics. A rising dollar is a headwind, but valuations are favourable.

    three month Change: the direction of the arrows indicates any change in the view since the previous Investment Outlook.

    For more market data including full 5 year performance figures see page 15

    Important information: Please be aware that past performance is not a guide to what might happen in the future. thevalue of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amount invested. When investing in overseas markets, changes in currency exchange rates may affect the value of your investment. Investments in small and emerging markets can be more volatile than those in other overseas markets. this information does not constitute investment advice and should not be used as the basis for any investment decision nor should it be treated as a recommendation for any investment. Investors should also note that the views expressed may no longer be current and may have already been acted upon by Fidelity. Fidelity does not give investment advice. If you are unsure about the suitability of an investment, you should speak to an authorised financial adviser.

  • 3Introduction

    Welcome to the fourth issue of our quarterly Investment Outlook report. We have emerged broadly unscathed from a summer of geo-political uncertainty but we are entering a period in which domestic political concerns will take on added significance. the recent scottish referendum was more destabilising than most investors had expected until a few weeks before the vote itself. looking ahead, we face elections in the us, Brazil and, of course, the uk next may.

    Politics will clearly be a big influence on sentiment in the months ahead, but so too will economics, with a host of unanswered questions in: the eurozone, where the battle against deflation has barely begun; the us, where life after quantitative easing is imminent; China, where the Governments ability to control market forces remains unproven; and at home, with the key question of when and how far interest rates will rise still in the balance.

    In light of these uncertainties, there are some adjustments to our overall market view, summarised in the table opposite. We remain positive on equities and concerned about the impact of rising interest rates on bonds. Property has been a great source of income but there is a need to be selective in a market thats frothy in places. Commodities tend not to thrive in a strong dollar environment but they have fallen a long way in some cases and are starting to interest contrarians.

    In terms of geography, we still like the us but worry about valuations. europe will be a beneficiary of more central bank stimulus even if earnings are yet to come through to justify the regions re-rating. the uk looks interesting and emerging markets have come back in favour this year, with a significant rotation back into Asia apparently underway. Japan has steadied and still looks good value.

    Please do remember that we try to take a long-term view and encourage you to do the same with your investments. the best protection against market uncertainty is diversification. Place your eggs in several baskets and you wont worry too much when things dont go exactly as you expected.

    I would as usual like to thank the many experts, both within Fidelity and outside, whose ideas have helped inform this quarterly outlook. On the following pages, I reference some interesting thoughts on the equity market cycle from Citi which I found particularly helpful. I also learned a lot from my Asian colleagues on their recent visit to london. this Outlook is not meant to represent a house view and you should not see it as such nor treat it as investment advice that is suitable to your personal circumstances.

    I hope that the ideas here will help you in your own thinking about the markets and your investments. I remain convinced that the best way for most investors to execute their investment strategy and achieve their financial goals is through a portfolio of well-spread investment funds. At the end of each section in this report, I have highlighted three representative funds and atthe end of the Outlook you can find the select list in full. Ifyou prefer to leave asset allocation and fund selection to the experts, you may wish to look into our Pathfinder range of risk-rated multi-asset funds.

    As usual, I will be presenting a live online question and answer session at which I will take questions about the views expressed in this Outlook. this will be available on our website as a recording after the event at fidelity.co.uk/investmentoutlook.

    Acknowledgements I would like to thank the many knowledgeable and experienced people within the wider Fidelity organisation who have helped me develop the ideas in this Investment Outlook. Although the views expressed here do not represent the shared opinion, or house view, of Fidelitys investment team, the combined expertise of over 350 investment professionals in 13 countries is a very significant resource on which I have been able to lean. In particular, I would like to thank trevor Greetham, Anna stupnytska, James Bateman and katie Roberts in Fidelity solutions; Paras Anand and Richard lewis, respectively the Heads of european and Global equities; Alex treves, Head of equities in tokyo; matthew sutherland, Head of Product management in Hong kong; Andy Howse and stuart Rumble, Investment Directors in our london-based Fixed Income team; and neil Cable, who heads Fidelitys Real estate investment team. tom stevenson, Investment Director.

  • 4Focus: Five years and counting

    the autumn months can be difficult in financial markets. morethan five years into a bull market, it would be surprising if investors were not even more anxious than usual at this time of year about the prospect of a correction. so this quarter, before getting into individual asset classes and geographies, I want to pause to explore where we might be in the current marketcycle.

    I have been watching markets for around 25 years now. During that time I have witnessed three major cycles and, while they have differed from each other in key ways, they have also shared enough features to make comparisons worthwhile. to paraphrase mark twain, they have not repeated themselves but they have rhymed.

    the market strategists at Citi, whose work I rate highly, recently analysed these three market cycles and identified four main phases in each. they did this by tracking the performance of shares and their close cousins high-yield bonds, which behave in a similar way but, crucially, not at the same time.

    keeping an eye on the high yield bond market can provide a useful guide for equity investors because the movements in these riskier bonds, both up and down, tend to precede those in the equity market. they can warn investors that a change in direction for shares is on its way.

    to be precise, what Citi is tracking is not the price of high-yield bonds but the difference between the income they offer investors and that which an investor can earn from a safe government bond. this gap, or spread to use the jargon, is a good indicator of changes in sentiment because optimistic bond investors will accept less income (a narrow spread) while nervous investors will demand more (a wider spread).

    Havent we been here before?

    0

    200

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    1400

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    1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 0214

    US High Yield Spread MSCI World

    source: Citi Research, thomson Reuters Datastream, 1.1.88 to 12.9.14. total returns in terms

    Past performance is not a guide to future returns. When investing in overseas markets, changes in currency exchange rates may affect the value of an investment. Forfull 5 year performance figures please see page 15.

  • 5In December 2008, at the height of the financial crisis, the high yield bond spread began to narrow several months before investors had the confidence to begin to move back into the bombed-out equity market. this is typical of the start of the market cycle when the perceived risk of holding bonds reduces even as shares continue to suffer from falling profits. the turn in the bond market alerts stock market investors to begin looking for opportunities to get back into the equity market.

    A similar lag can occur at the other end of the cycle. Aftera long period in which bond spreads have narrowed and share prices have risen, the first widening in bond spreads can serve as a warning for equity investors. Its like the canary falling off its perch in the coal mine. It is an early signal that the environment for equity markets will also turn down at some point. However, equities usually continue to perform well at this point in the cycle because company profits are still rising.

    so, where are we in this cycle? After more than five years of positive returns for both bonds and equities, the first signs of nervousness in the high yield bond market have emerged. this phase of the market has been unusually prolonged due to the distorting effect of quantitative easing, which has forced investors to chase yield wherever they could find it. But that party is drawing to a close.

    Over the summer there were some sizeable outflows from corporate bond funds. It now looks as if we might be on the cusp of a widening in bond spreads again.

    this is the period in which equities can continue to rise but in a more volatile fashion, with more frequent setbacks than investors have become used to. If you cast your mind back to the late 1990s, you might recall fast-rising markets but with some unpleasant downward lurches such as during the Asian financial crisis.

    my take on this is that the bull market which began in march 2009 is maturing but is still some way from being finished. In the 1980s, the period between the high-yield signal and the equity market turning down lasted 16 months and saw a further 30% rise for shares; in the 1990s, markets rose by another 50% in two and a half years.

    so this can be an exciting time to be invested in shares but it is also a time to be careful. In the cycle that ended in 2008, the

    final phase lasted just four months and the market only rose by another 3% after bond spreads started to widen in the summer of 2007.

    Citis analysis makes a lot of sense to me. It fits with my belief that, as the european Central Bank picks up the stimulus baton from the Federal Reserve, and as economic recovery helps corporate profits rise further, equity markets could continue rising for some time to come. Reasonable valuations and a lack of euphoria in the markets also suggest we are still some way off the top.

    But I also expect volatility to begin to rise in the months ahead as market risks increase. I see risks on three fronts: economics, politics and monetary policy.

    The ups and downs of 2014

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    90

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    1.1.

    14

    21.1

    .14

    10.2

    .14

    2.3.

    14

    22.3

    .14

    11.4

    .14

    1.5.

    14

    21.5

    .14

    10.6

    .14

    Nikkei 225 FTSE 100 MSCI Europe

    Shanghai SE S&P 500 MSCI Emerging Markets

    source: thomson Reuters Datastream, 1.1.14 to 16.9.14

    Past performance is not a guide to what might happen in the future. When investing in overseas markets, changes in currency exchange rates may affect the value of an investment. Investing in small and emerging markets can be more volatile than those in other overseas markets. For full 5 year performance figures please see page 15.

    On the economic front there has continued to be plenty to worry about over the summer. In europe, growth has stagnated, with Italy falling into recession and the threat of deflation increasing. elsewhere, Japan has struggled following Aprils consumption tax hike and in China there are concerns about the property market, with prices falling in a majority of the countrys major cities.

  • 6In some ways, economic risk is less of a concern (because it is more measurable) than the second growing risk factor, politics. I believe the next 12 months will be dominated by political uncertainty in many countries. the recent scottish referendum provided an unexpected reminder that political risk can be underestimated by markets, failing to appear on investors radars until suddenly it is everyones major concern.

    looking ahead, I expect the mid-term elections in America in november will re-awaken dormant concerns about the us budget and debt ceiling. the uk election next spring is more important than usual because it may have a direct bearing on our future in or out of the eu. Add to these the ongoing problems in ukraine and the middle east, as well as unresolved tensions between China and Japan, and the next 12 months have the potential to be rather more interesting geo-politically than markets have factored in.

    the third risk monetary policy is probably the best understood but potentially the most unsettling for markets. While we may be aware that us and uk interest rates will rise either later this year or in 2015, we have basked in an environment of rock bottom borrowing costs for so long now that it is uncertain how markets will respond when the cycle actually turns.

    my final observation this quarter is about the importance of diversification. this has always mattered but never more so than this year when the conventional wisdom on many investment themes has been turned on its head.

    I have written several times about how a Great Rotation out of bonds and into equities failed to materialise. As my comments here on high yield bonds suggest, I feel we are closer to that shift than we have been, but betting against bonds has been an expensive mistake this year. With bonds providing a useful counter-balance to equities in a well-diversified portfolio and interest rates staying low, they are likely to continue to attract fund flows.

    A rotation that did happen this year, and which took many of us by surprise, was the resurgence of interest in emerging markets, in particular those in Asia, as the returns chart on this

    page illustrates. Japan has also unwound its underperformance earlier in the year in recent months. Adopting too rigid a position on any of these would have been costly.

    so, while this quarterly outlook attempts to show our preferred asset classes and regions, I will continue to stress that the most sensible approach to managing your portfolio is to ensure that you carry your eggs in a wide variety of baskets.

    Sector and asset class rotation 2013 and 2014S&P 500

    MSCI Developed EquitiesJapan Nikkei 225

    ML Global High Yield BondsMSCI Asia ex Japan

    MSCI Emerging EquitiesGerman 10 y Bund

    ML Global Corporate BondsBrent Crude OilUK 10 Year GiltsCRB Commodities IndexJPM EMBI Emerging DebtCopperUS 10 Year TreasuryGSCI Soft CommoditiesGoldSilver

    2013

    0%-10% 10% 20% 30% 40%-20%-30%-40%

    S&P 500MSCI Emerging Equities

    MSCI Asia ex JapanJPM EMBI Emerging DebtMSCI Developed Equities

    US 10 Year TreasuryUK 10 Year Gilts

    German 10y BundML Global Corporate BondsML Global High Yield Bonds

    GoldCRB Commodities Index

    Japan Nikkei 225SilverGSCI Soft CommoditiesCopperBrent Crude Oil

    2014

    -15% -12% -9% -6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9%

    source: Datastream, as at 16.9.14

    Past performance is not a guide to future returns. For full 5 year performance figures please see page 15.

  • 7Asset classes

    EquItIEs

    We have preferred equities to other asset classes this year and overall they have not disappointed. that said, other investments have done better than expected so relatively speaking there has been less outperformance by shares than forecast. lookingforward, the case for equities remains intact.

    the underlying financial environment is unchanged. We are still working off the excesses that led to the financial crisis and that means that interest rates will stay low and corporate profits, free of tight monetary policy or wage demands from workers, should stay high. loose monetary policy has an explicit aim of promoting wealth by boosting the value of asset markets. this may be socially divisive, making the rich richer, but investors should respond to how the world is not how it should be. markets will continue to be underpinned by policy.

    this is a good backdrop for global equity markets and the expansion of valuation multiples from very low in 2009 to reasonable today could well continue until they reach too high in a couple of years time. that would be the pattern of previous cycles such as the one in the 1990s. the economic environment is favourable. Growth is accelerating, albeit not that fast, inflation remains subdued and central banks can therefore staysupportive.

    In that context, the search for yield will continue and equities remain one of the best sources of reliable and growing income. Dividend yields, everywhere but the us, remain safely above those on government bonds. I expect volatility to increase as the bull market matures, but it is starting from such a low base that it is not a problem. Other supports include corporate activity. takeovers are good news for target companies but when the market likes the underlying rationale for deals, as it does now, it can also help acquirers. At the top of the cycle, silly deals start to destroy shareholder value but we are notthereyet.

    Overall, decent growth, reasonable valuations, better animal spirits and supportive policy are positives. this is still a recipe for remaining fully invested and favouring equities.

    there remains the question of what kinds of equities investors should favour at this point in the cycle. In the late 1990s, cyclical stocks tended to outperform defensives. Companies which can demonstrate growth were revalued versus those which were attractive on value grounds. Finally, large cap stocks did better than small caps.

    those seem like sensible themes to pursue now. Interestingly, small caps have notably underperformed this year. I think this could continue.

    Equities dividend yield trumps govt. bond income

    0%

    1%

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    4%

    5%

    Dividend Yield Government Bond Yield

    Japan

    US

    Cana

    da

    Ger

    many

    Switz

    Franc

    e

    UK

    Aus

    tralia

    source: Citi Research Global equity strategy, thomson Reuters Datastream, as at 12.9.14

    Past performance is not a guide to future returns. When investing in overseas markets, changes in currency exchange rates may affect the value of an investment.

    If youre interested in global equities three funds on our select list you may like to look at are:

    Lazard Global Equity Income sarasin Global Higher Dividend templeton Growth

    For a full list of select list funds in this sector please see the fund data section at the back of this report.

  • 8BonDs

    It is hard to get very excited about any part of the bond universe government bonds or investment grade and high yield corporate bonds. Yields are low and the extra income offered by riskier corporate bonds compared with super-safe government bonds barely compensates investors for the extra risk of default.

    that said, bonds have performed much better than most observers expected at the beginning of the year because yields have stayed lower than predicted and there is good reason to suppose that they will stay subdued for the foreseeable future. there is a strong appetite for income in a low interest rate environment so, as long as interest rates remain near zero, the returns on bonds will stay attractive to many investors.

    Couple that with the diversification benefits that bonds can provide a broad-based portfolio and the risks to capital that many have worried about for the past couple of years may well continue to prove elusive.

    One goal of this Outlook, however, is to help investors weigh up the relative merits of different asset classes and geographies. In that context, bonds look less appealing than equities. Income may well offset any small capital loss caused by higher bond yields, but there seems little prospect of much capital gain. Income will be the principal driver of total returns.

    the heavy outflows from high yield bond funds for a short period in the summer were a salutary reminder that sentiment can change quickly. After years of positive flows into bonds, a change of heart by investors could test the liquidity of a market which is less well served by market makers than it used to be.

    so, caution is the watchword. that also means not taking too big a bet on any one part of the bond market and for me that argues for holding bonds either within a strategic bond fund or within a broad-based multi-asset income fund which can

    offer an attractive yield without the associated volatility of the equitymarket.

    Sentiment shifts how high yield bonds fell from grace

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    Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14

    Global High Yield Bond - cumulative fund flows in m

    source: Credit suisse as at 12.9.14

    Important information: Please be aware that the price of bonds is influenced by movements in interest rates, changes in the credit rating of bond issuers, and other factors such as inflation and market dynamics. In general, as interest rates rise the price of a bond will fall. the risk of default is based on the issuers ability to make interest payments and to repay the loan at maturity. Default risk may therefore vary between different government issuers as well as between different corporate issuers.

    If youre interested in bonds three funds on our select list you may like to look at are:

    Fidelity Global Inflation Linked Bond JP Morgan Global High Yield threadneedle Global Bond

    For a full list of select list funds in this sector please see the fund data section at the back of this report.

  • 9ProPErtY

    Its been a good year for investing in commercial property and it is not hard to see why. In an environment of low interest rates, the relatively secure income that reliable tenants provide is very attractive. the yields on prime property may have fallen but they still look good against those on government bonds, cash or even most equities. economic recovery also means that the income from property, like that from shares, can rise as rents increase. With precious little development having taken place in recent, credit-starved years the balance between supply and demand of top-quality space means the balance of power has shifted from tenants to landlords.

    Whenever a market enjoys such favourable circumstances, investors need to be aware of the dangers of believing the good times can go on for ever. Pockets of excess are showing up in various markets which are echoes of the over-confidence which characterised the property market in 2007. some investors are starting to make assumptions about rental growth that may prove to be over-optimistic and this is probably a time to look at markets, like industrial property, where rental income rather than rental growth has traditionally been the main driver of returns. Another area which looks interesting is Germany, where much of the liquidity created by a newly-accommodative european Central Bank is likely to end up.

    An interesting feature of the european real estate market has been a rotation back towards the perceived safety of the core. Investing in Germanys property market, which has historically avoided the booms and busts of, for example, the uk is attractive to many investors from around the region who prize safety when investing in an illiquid asset that can be tricky to exit in a hurry.

    Important information: some funds in the property sector invest in property and land. these can be difficult to sell so you may not be able to cash in this investment when you want to. there may be long delays in acting on your instructions to sell your investment. the value of property is generally a matter of a valuers opinion rather than fact.

    If youre interested in property three funds on our select list you may like to look at are:

    Aberdeen Property share Fidelity Global Property M&G Global real Estate securities

    For a full list of select list funds in this sector please see the fund data section at the back of this report.

    CoMMoDItIEs

    the past year has been a difficult one for commodities investors. Almost without exception, natural resources have lost money and they have done so with quite a bit of volatility. Also, there has been a high degree of dispersion between the returns of different commodities so being in the right part of the market has mattered more than usually. Performance has been so poor that some sector specialists are starting to ask whether the time has arrived to get back into the market. the argument for investing in commodities today has fourparts.

    First, commodities are starting to provide useful diversification, after a period in which they simply tracked equities but with greater ups and downs. second, the performance has been so weak in some cases that contrarians are wondering whether there is less downside risk than in equities, for example, which are flirting with all-time highs. third, the demand picture looks less negative in a couple of key regions europe and China. After sharp falls in price, it might only require things not to get any worse for prices to rise again. Fourth, many of the big mining companies have, in the past couple of years, undergone significant restructurings and management changes to reverse periods of over-investment.

    Finally, commodities can provide a good hedge against inflation. While this does not feel like its a big problem at the moment, the continuing monetary stimulus in Japan and europe could in time trigger a return of uncontrolled price rises. there is a place for a small commodities exposure in well-balanced portfolios, although

    most investors will prefer to achieve this through a well-diversified fund and through investment in producing companies rather than the much more volatile commodities themselves.

    The end of the super-cycle: how low is too low?

    Jan-

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    500CRB Commodities Index

    source: thomson Reuters Datastream, as at 15.9.14

    Past performance is not a guide to future returns. For full 5 year performance figures please see page 15.

    If youre interested in commodities three funds on our select list you may like to look at are:

    Blackrock Gold and General First state Global resources Martin Currie Global resources

    For a full list of select list funds in this sector please see the fund data section at the back of this report.

  • 10

    equities a regional perspective

    us

    We have been positive on the outlook for the us equity market throughout the past year, despite apparently high valuations. this has been the right approach as the s&P 500 has rewarded the optimists by pushing through 2,000 for the first time, a three-fold rise since the us market bottomed out in march 2009.

    As we enter the final quarter of 2014, two potential headwinds are emerging: the end of quantitative easing in October and the re-appearance of political risk as the mid-term elections take place in november. these will provide support to the growing number of sceptics who argue that too much good news is now baked into us share prices.

    my view is that the us market will continue to lead global equities higher but I would ease back on any overweight to America on valuations grounds. It remains a key part of a well-balanced equity portfolio but not to the exclusion of other better-value markets. there is still plenty for the bulls to hold onto. the us economy remains in good shape and the housing market in particular is benefiting from good affordability and falling long-term interest rates, which have helped mortgage demand pick up.

    Business and consumer confidence is high. Despite this, inflation and wage pressures remain pretty benign, which means that the Federal Reserve can maintain its supportive position on interest rates even as money printing finally comes to an end. We could be another nine months away from the first actual rate hike. this said, the past year or so has seen the stock market catch up with the earnings improvements of 2011 and 2012. At the time, investors treated these as unsustainable and were unprepared to pay up for them. Having re-rated over the past year or so, the pressure is now back on us companies to keep growing earnings to justify todays valuations. that may prove difficult with profit margins so high.

    there is a plausible argument that margins are not actually as high as they look, boosted by one-off tax schemes, for example. But it is clear that it will be hard work to keep the earnings momentum going.

    the bottom line for me, however, is that we remain in an equity bull market, which could have a couple of years yet to run. In that environment, it would be odd to not also be positive on the worlds largest equity market.

    the mature end of an equity bull market typically favours large companies in liquid markets. I think the us will get more expensive before it starts to get cheaper again.

    US not expensive (but not cheap either)Comparing share prices with 10-year average earnings

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    US Shiller S&P500 Price/Earnings

    source: thomson Reuters Datastream/Fathom Consulting, september 2014

    Past performance is not a guide to future returns. Wheninvesting in overseas markets, changes in currency exchange rates may affect the value of your investment.

    If youre interested in the us three funds on our select list you may like to look at are:

    Fidelity Funds America JP Morgan us smaller Companies old Mutual north America

    For a full list of select list funds in this sector please see the fund data section at the back of this report.

  • 11

    uK

    Mind the gap how London has underperformed NewYork since the crisis

    Sep-0

    8

    Mar-0

    9

    Sep-0

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    Mar-1

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    Sep-1

    1

    Mar-1

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    Sep-1

    2

    Mar-1

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    Sep-1

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    Mar-1

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    Sep-1

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    S&P 500 FTSE 100

    180

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    140

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    60

    source: thomson Reuters Datastream, 16.9.08 to 16.9.14. total returns in terms

    Past performance is not a guide to future returns. Wheninvesting in overseas markets, changes in currency exchange rates may affect the value of your investment.

    From an economic point of view, the uk is the bright spot in europe, with GDP and unemployment both moving in the right direction. For investors, too, it looks attractive thanks to its valuation edge over many markets, in particular the us which it has underperformed significantly since the financial crisis.

    this is in part due to the make-up of the uk market it had a heavier exposure to the commodity and mining boom and less of a weighting to the parts of the us market which have done well such as biotech and mobile software.

    that has resulted in a wide valuation gap, with the dividend yield on uk shares much more generous on average than in America despite similar expectations for growth.

    Another factor acting in the uks favour is the high degree of political uncertainty, which should serve to limit policy tightening. Any sterling weakness will also help the uks exporters and overseas earners (the uk market makes around 40% of its earnings overseas).

    uk shares have been seen as a play on emerging markets, which has not always been a positive in recent years but looks more of an advantage today. If you are more positive on the outlook for the developing world, then the uk is a good way to achieve that exposure via well-established franchises with good governance.

    If youre interested in the uk three funds on our select list you may like to look at are:

    AXA Framlington uK select opportunities Fidelity uK select Liontrust Macro Equity Income

    For a full list of select list funds in this sector please see the fund data section at the back of this report.

    EuroPE

    I have been pretty negative on europe this year and this has been justified by poor economic growth and very low inflation, verging on deflation. For investors, however, europe has been a surprisingly rewarding place to invest, with shares continuing the re-rating they have enjoyed since mario Draghi promised to do whatever it takes to support the eurozone in the summer of 2012. they have seen valuation multiples rise despite a notable absence of support from rising corporate earnings.

    normally, I would expect this mismatch between earnings and valuations to be corrected either by higher profits or, failing that, by lower share prices.

    However, in recent weeks the eCB president has ridden to the rescue again with his apparent acceptance of the need at some point to engage in the quantitative easing that did so much to stabilise and then inflate asset prices in the us, Japan and Britain.

    As a consequence I would not be surprised to see share prices, especially of lower-quality companies, continue to rally even if earnings do not come through as hoped.

    You may not like Qe but it has not been sensible to fight central banks when they are committed to using this kind of extreme monetary stimulus.

    Qe works on several different levels at the same time. It keeps real bond yields low, which drives up the value of real assets (property) and financial assets (equities and bonds); it increases the collateral value of banks assets and so encourages lending; and it encourages companies to invest by making it cheaper to build rather than buy in the market.

    Finally, it reduces the level of the exchange rate. this is crucial for europe, which is heavily exposed to overseas trade. In fact it has been estimated that a 10% reduction in the value of the euro increases GDP by 1.2%.

    many economists are forecasting that the euro could fall as low as $1.20, which would give the regions companies a big boost even if the domestic outlook remains difficult. this will help solve the earnings mismatch.

    If youre interested in europe three funds on our select list you may like to look at are:

    Blackrock Continental European Henderson European special situations Invesco Perpetual European Equity Income

    For a full list of select list funds in this sector please see the fund data section at the back of this report.

  • 12

    JAPAn

    my enthusiasm for Japan at the start of the year was given a pretty tough stress test the market was one of the worst performers in the first quarter as investors eyed the upcoming implementation of a consumption tax hike and worried that the structural reforms element of the Abenomics programme would be too hard to execute.

    the nikkei has now clawed back most of the lost ground and looks in much better health. Crucially it has done that despite evidence that the sales tax hike did actually weigh heavily on the Japanese economy. the fall in second quarter GDP was a lot worse than expected.

    the good news is that we are starting to see signs of income growth. there is, however, still further to go because the downside of the push to restore a modest level of inflation to Japans stagnant economy has been a short term drop in real, inflation-adjusted wages. It would be wrong to underestimate what a galvanising effect a return to inflation could have, changing behaviours in a country that for nearly a generation has become resigned to no wage growth and falling prices.

    Interestingly, the poor GDP numbers did not have such a dramatic impact on the stock market. that reflects a belief that the Government and Bank of Japan are committed to the success of Abenomics and will respond with further stimulus if necessary, for example by scrapping the planned additional hike in the consumption tax next year.

    It also reflects a growing belief that corporate sector reforms, new governance and stewardship codes and the use of shareholder-friendly return-on-equity benchmarks, are genuine steps in the right direction. the impetus for change is coming from within; in a society where peer pressure matters, that makes success much more likely. In my view Japan has seen the challenge from China and realised that, if it is to remain a significant regional force, it can only do so from a position of economic strength. When Japan understands the need for

    radical change, it has shown many times in the past that it has the will to push it through.

    the final, and key, reason to be positive on the Japanese market is the fact that valuations are attractive compared with other developed markets. Japan has been off investors radars for so long that further signs of improvement could lead to a significant re-rating and fund in-flows. I remain positive on this out of favour market.

    Japan GDP gyrations

    -8

    -6

    -4

    -2

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    1994

    1995

    1996

    1997

    1998

    1999

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    2013

    2014

    Japan

    GD

    P qua

    rter

    ly %

    cha

    nge,

    ann

    ualis

    ed

    source: thomson Reuters Datastream/Fathom Consulting , september 2014

    Past performance is not a guide to what might happen in the future. When investing in overseas markets, changes in currency exchange rates may affect the value of aninvestment.

    If youre interested in Japan three funds on our select list you may like to look at are:

    Aberdeen Japan Growth old Mutual Japanese select schroder tokyo

    For a full list of select list funds in this sector please see the fund data section at the back of this report.

  • 13

    EMErGInG MArKEts (InC. AsIA PACIFIC EX-JAPAn)

    the rotation from bonds to equities may not have happened this year. One rotation that has, however, is the one back from developed to emerging markets, and to Asia in particular. If you look at the best performing markets of the past three months they are almost all in the Far east. there are a few reasons for this. First, valuations are more attractive in emerging markets than they are in the developed world after several years of underperformance. this is largely driven by very cheap markets in China and korea not all markets are such good value but overall there is a valuation advantage.

    second, political developments have been pretty positive in a number of countries. India and Indonesia, for example, have both elected new, business and investor-friendly heads of government. Investors anticipated these victories and my fear three months ago was that it might be better to travel than to arrive. However, momentum has remained strong and I think these two very populous countries stand a real hope of providing a new engine for global growth in the years ahead.

    third, reforms continue to be pushed through in China. In the short term these have been more supportive of the Old China stocks represented by the large state-owned companies but in time the benefit will also be felt by the new China businesses focused on the consumption story. these will be the main driver of market growth in the next few years. there remain valid concerns about the Chinese property market but, on a single digit multiple of average earnings, this is priced in.

    Fourth, fears about the end of quantitative easing in the us seem to have eased. Although the tapering of monetary stimulus will come to an end within the next few weeks, it is clear that Fed chair Janet Yellen is in no particular hurry to actually raise interest rates.

    the final reason to think that emerging markets, and especially Asian markets, can continue to perform well is the fact that

    sentiment has improved only from very poor to indifferent. Positive fund flows from foreign investors are a sign that money sees better opportunities here than in higher-priced us equities or in european markets still dogged by deflationary fears.

    Fund flows by foreign investors into Asia

    Aug

    -13

    Sep-1

    3

    Oct

    -13

    Nov

    -13

    Dec

    -13

    Jan-

    14

    Feb-1

    4

    Mar-1

    4

    Apr-1

    4

    May-

    14

    Jun-

    14

    Jul-1

    4

    -10,000

    -5,000

    0

    5,000

    10,000

    15,000

    US$

    mill

    ions

    Chart shows net foreign purchases of shares in India, Indonesia, korea, Philippines, taiwan, thailand, malaysia

    source: Fidelity, september 2014

    Past performance is not a guide to what might happen in the future. When investing in overseas markets, changes in currency exchange rates may affect the value of an investment. Investing in small and emerging markets can be more volatile than those in other overseas markets.

    If youre interested in emerging markets three funds on our select list you may like to look at are:

    JP Morgan Emerging Markets Lazard Emerging Markets threadneedle Global Emerging Markets

    For a full list of select list funds in this sector please see the fund data section at the back of this report.

  • 14

    And finally...

    After a full year of writing these Investment Outlook reports, I am more sure than ever of the need for this kind of market overview. As I said in the introduction, this is not a house view and it is not investment advice. What I hope it can provide is a useful framework for your investment decisions at a time when we are all being called on to take ever greater responsibility for our financial futures.

    next April we will be given unprecedented control over our finances when far-reaching changes to the uks pensions landscape take effect. until recently, most people were able to remain in blissful ignorance about the economic and investment environment in which their pensions were

    growing. that was someone elses problem and the promise of a regular income related to their final salary was all that mattered to nearly allretirees.

    today, the majority of us save into money purchase pensions and many of us will choose to continue investing our pension pots long after we have stopped paying into them. the advent of income drawdown means few will be able to get away with knowing little and caring less about investment markets.

    tom stevenson Investment Director, Fidelity Personal Investing

    InVEstMEnt VALuAtIon At A GLAnCE

    Price-earnings ratio 2014E

    Dividend yield 2014E

    Equities % %

    us 17.1 1.9

    europe 15.0 3.5

    uk 14.0 3.7

    Japan 14.5 2.0

    Asia Pac ex Japan 13.4 3.1

    emerging market Asia 12.2 2.5

    latin America 15.0 2.9

    Central east europe, middle east & Africa

    9.6 3.6

    redemption Yield

    Bonds %

    ml Global High Yield 6.2

    German 10-Year Bunds 1.0

    ml Global Corporates 2.7

    uk 10-Year Gilts 2.5

    us 10-Year treasuries 2.6

    market data

    Please be aware that past performance is not a guide to what might happen in the future. When investing in overseas markets, changes in currency exchange rates may affect the value of your investment. Investments in small and emerging markets can be more volatile than those in other overseas markets.

  • 15

    InVEstMEnt PErForMAnCE At A GLAnCE

    % (as at 16th sept) 3 m 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014

    Equities

    s&P 500 8.6 13.3 9.2 19.8 20.7 18.1

    Ftse 100 1.5 11.9 0.2 14.5 16.2 6.2

    Ftse 250 0.0 15.1 2.6 19.7 29.7 4.6

    Ftse small Cap -0.1 4.2 3.3 13.1 35.0 6.5

    nIkkeI 225 6.3 5.5 4.9 0.8 29.6 1.7

    msCI europe -0.3 4.6 -5.8 15.4 20.8 7.5

    msCI Asia ex Japan 6.4 20.2 -1.7 7.1 10.6 7.4

    msCI emerging markets 6.7 22.0 -3.6 4.0 3.6 6.3

    msCI World 3.9 10.0 3.3 14.7 20.2 12.9

    shanghai se 16.8 -7.2 -0.5 -15.9 10.5 0.7

    msCI Russia -6.2 15.7 5.9 7.0 -2.4 -19.1

    Bonds

    us 10-Year treasuries 0.8 9.9 10.4 5.0 -5.7 5.9

    uk 10-Year Gilts 3.6 9.7 11.6 7.0 -4.0 7.0

    German 10-Year Bunds 3.3 4.8 13.7 -2.3 4.3 6.3

    ml Global Corporate Bonds 3.9 12.3 5.1 4.7 1.7 4.8

    ml Global High Yield 3.0 24.6 3.7 13.6 9.3 6.4

    JPm emerging markets Bond Index 4.6 21.0 5.4 12.9 -3.1 8.2

    Commodities

    CRB Commodities Index -3.9 12.0 17.2 -5.3 -8.0 -3.4

    Crude Oil (Brent) -3.7 5.7 35.2 6.1 1.1 -2.7

    Gold spot 1.5 30.8 40.3 -5.8 -24.7 -8.0

    COmeX Copper 8.7 22.4 10.2 -6.8 -15.8 -3.4

    GsCI soft Commodities -5.8 4.0 16.5 3.4 -4.5 -8.2

    Wheat -28.8 145.0 -3.6 37.6 -30.6 -36.0

    market data (continued)

    Please be aware that past performance is not a guide to what might happen in the future. When investing in overseas markets, changes in currency exchange rates may affect the value of your investment. Investments in small and emerging markets can be more volatile than those in other overseas markets.

    source: Datastream, discrete performance from 16.9.09 to 16.9.14 in terms. valuations: source Citigroup Global equity strategist Citi Research, msCI, Worldscope, Factset Consensus estimates as at 16.9.14. Bond Yields: source Datastream as at 16.9.14.

  • 16

    stAnDARDIseD PeRFORmAnCe DAtA (%) OveR tHe PAst FIve YeARs

    % (as at 31st Aug) 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014Morningstar Fund Rating

    mIX OF Asset ClAssesBalancedArchitas mA Active Intermediate Inc A Inc 10.1 3.7 7.8 12.2 7.8 JJJJF&C mm navigator Distribution C Acc - - - 12.2 8.7Henderson Cautious managed Fund I Acc 7.6 3.5 9.7 15.3 7.7 JJJJJInvestec Cautious managed I Acc net GBP 6.5 10.1 5.4 13.2 2.1 JJJDefensiveAXA Defensive Distribution Z Inc 7.2 4.7 7.2 5.5 5.6 JJJJupiter Distribution Fund I Class Acc - - - 8.5 7.2Prudential managed Defensive Acc P - - - - -FlexibleCF miton strategic Portfolio B Acc 7.5 4.1 1.3 4.2 -1.6 JInvesco Perpetual managed Growth Fund Y Acc - - - - -Investec managed Growth I Acc net GBP 15.4 12.8 1.6 25.7 10.8 JJJJJJupiter merlin Growth Portfolio I Class Acc 14.7 8.1GrowthAberdeen multi-Asset Fund I-Acc 10.0 10.3 9.7 11.8 6.9 JJJJAXA Framlington managed Balanced Z Acc 9.7 8.5 9.8 16.5 8.5 JJJJJInvestec Diversified Growth I Inc net GBP 12.3 9.9 6.6 12.0 7.7 JJJJupiter merlin Balanced Portfolio I Class Acc - - - 13.1 7.0IncomeAberdeen managed Distribution Fund I-Acc - - - - 6.7Aviva Investors Distribution Fund sC 2 Inc 13.7 5.1 12.6 11.5 8.2 JJJJJFidelity PathFinder Income 1 14.1 2.1 9.9 5.7 9.1 JJJJJPremier multi-Asset monthly Income Fund C net Income shares 10.3 3.8 11.5 18.2 10.9 JJJJJeQuItIes FunDsAsia Pacific excl JapanFidelity south east Asia Fund W-Accumulation (uk) 23.9 8.5 -3.3 8.8 10.6 JJJJFirst state Asia Pacific leaders B Acc 21.1 12.2 7.4 8.5 16.1 JJJJJm&G Asian Fund I Acc 19.9 5.6 -0.8 15.3 16.5 JJJJnewton Asian Income Fund Inc - - - 9.8 9.1schroder Asian Alpha Plus Fund Z Acc - - 10.5 7.9 12.0 JJJJJAberdeen Asia Pacific and Japan Fund I-Acc - - - - 8.0Fidelity Funds Pacific Fund Y-ACC-usD 22.0 10.1 -3.7 25.9 20.3 JJJJJFidelity Index Pacific ex Japan Fund P-Accumulation - - - - -smith & Williamson Far eastern Income and Growth trust B - - -1.2 16.8 10.5 JJJJJemerging markets Global equityFidelity emerging markets W-Accumulation (uk) - 4.8 -0.2 9.4 11.9 JJJJJFidelity Index emerging markets P Acc - - - - -JP morgan emerging markets Fund B net Acc 21.3 2.3 -1.1 1.7 10.2 JJJJlazard emerging markets Institutional Acc 25.3 1.7 1.8 2.8 15.0 JJJJthreadneedle Gbl emerg mkts eq RDR Z Acc 25.6 -0.1 -2.2 7.3 13.3 JJJJemerging markets Regional equityFidelity Funds Greater China Fund Y-ACC-usD 23.0 2.3 -3.4 21.1 12.9 JJJJJFidelity Funds latin America Fund Y-ACC-usD 37.0 2.4 -6.2 -6.7 11.4 JJJJFranklin India Fund W (acc) GBP 38.1 -5.8 -12.7 -11.4 58.8 JJJJthreadneedle latin America RDR Z Acc 31.2 -0.6 -5.3 -9.2 12.5 JJJ

    Fund data

    tHE sELECt LIst InVEstMEnt IDEAs FroM our EXPErts

    the funds on the select list are hand picked from the range available on our fund supermarket. For more information on how these funds are selected visit fidelity.co.uk/select. the select list is not a recommendation to buy funds. equally, if a fund you own already is not on the select list we are not recommending that you sell it the list represents funds and managers that our experts particularlyrate. Please be aware that past performance is not a guide to what might happen in the future. the value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amount invested. For funds that invest in overseas markets, the returns may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations. Investments in small and emerging markets can be more volatile than other more developed markets. For funds launched less than five years ago full five-year performance figures are not available. Before you invest, please ensure you have read Doing Business with Fidelity and the key Investor Information Document (kIID) or Fund specific Information Document (FsI), relevant to your chosen fund(s). these documents give you all the information you need to know about Fidelity, including details of the objective, investment policy, risks, charges and past performance associated with the fund(s). Instructions on how to access these documents can be found at fidelity.co.uk/ importantinformation. If you do not have a computer or access to the internet please call Fidelity on 0800 41 41 61 to request a printed copy of the documents. the Full Prospectus is also available on request from Fidelity.

    Please note, the performance figures shown here are based on clean share classes. Formore information about clean pricing, please visit fidelity.co.uk/pricing.

  • 17

    % (as at 31st Aug) 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014Morningstar Fund Rating

    europe excl ukBlackRock Continental european Fund Class D Acc 4.3 6.6 7.4 29.7 4.2 JJJJJFidelity Index europe ex uk Fund P-Accumulation - - - - -Henderson european special sits I Acc - 11.8 6.1 32.7 4.7 JJJInvesco Perpetual european equity Income Y Acc - - - - -Jupiter european special situations Fund I Class Acc - - - 31.2 4.7threadneedle european select RDR Z Acc 11.1 15.8 11.3 25.7 4.5 JJJJJGlobal equityBnY mellon long term Global equity Inc - - - 17.6 7.3Fidelity Index World Fund P-Acc - - - - 12.3m&G Global Growth Fund I Acc 6.7 6.0 6.3 22.3 2.8 JJJJRathbone Global Opportunities Inst Acc 20.7 10.3templeton Growth Fund W (acc) GBP 1.1 2.1 6.2 33.2 12.6 JJJGlobal equity IncomeAberdeen World Growth and Income Fund I-Inc 8.5 10.7 9.9 7.3 6.5 JJlazard Global equity Income Retail C Acc - - - - 14.5newton Global Higher Income Fund Inc - - - - 8.3sarasin International equity Income P Acc 9.9 4.7 10.9 16.4 9.6 JJJGlobal ethicalecclesiastical Amity International B Inc 17.2 3.0 2.1 17.4 11.9 JJJJF&C stewardship International Fund share Class 2 Acc 8.2 6.0 10.3 21.2 8.0 JJJJGlobal Real AssetsFidelity Funds Global Real Asset securities Fund Y-ACC-GBP - - 6.1 9.8 8.1 JJFirst state Global listed Infrastructure securities B Acc 12.1 9.8 10.4 13.2 16.6 JJJJJsarasin Agrisar PP Acc 16.1 2.7 2.8 6.8 6.7 JJJJJapanAberdeen Japan Growth Fund I-Acc 5.1 11.6 6.3 20.1 5.5 JJJJJBaillie Gifford Japanese Fund B Acc 0.4 11.0 2.1 37.4 5.1 JJJJJFidelity Index Japan Fund P-Accumulation - - - - -Jupiter Japan Income Fund I Class Acc - - - - 0.6Old mutual Japanese equity Fund R Acc -1.0 12.0 1.2 30.8 4.4 JJJJJschroder tokyo Fund Z Acc 2.1 24.3 4.9 JJJJJnorth AmericaFidelity Funds America Fund Y-ACC-usD 7.1 10.8 20.1 26.2 19.2 JJJJFidelity Index us Fund P-Acc - - - - 15.7JP morgan us select Fund C net Acc 8.6 8.3 20.2 24.5 17.2 JJJJOld mutual north American equity R Acc 7.5 20.6 15.0 30.9 18.9 JJJJJsmith & Williamson north American trust B - - 13.1 22.7 10.6 JJJnorth America small/mid CapBlackRock us Opportunities Fund Class D Acc 14.0 7.5 7.9 28.8 16.5 JJJJJP morgan us smaller Companies Fund C net Acc - - - - -0.9single Country europeBaring German Growth trust Class I GBP Acc - - - - 7.9Fidelity Funds Germany Fund Y-ACC-euro 7.6 7.7 6.0 36.7 5.2 JJJJJFidelity Funds Italy Fund Y-ACC-euro -9.8 -6.8 0.3 31.4 17.5 JJJJJuk equityAXA Framlington uk select Opps Z Acc 16.8 13.6 15.2 21.0 11.6 JJJJCF lindsell train uk equity Fund Inc 25.4 13.8 18.5 33.1 10.2 JJJJJFidelity Index uk Fund P-Acc 8.2 6.6 11.6 18.4 9.2 JJJFidelity uk select Fund W-Accumulation 9.7 9.4 10.8 19.6 9.4 JJJJHsBC Ftse 100 Index Fund Acc C 8.0 6.2 12.0 16.2 9.7 JJJJupiter uk special situations Fund I Class Inc - - - 24.9 11.9liontrust uk Growth Inc Fund I Income - - 18.5 15.1 9.2 JJJuk equity IncomeArtemis Income Fund Class I Acc 10.7 5.7 17.0 21.9 10.0 JJJJFidelity moneyBuilder Dividend Y-Income 11.9 10.2 16.7 18.4 11.5 JJJJHenderson uk equity Income I Inc 12.7 18.0 16.0 33.9 14.8 JJJJJJOHCm uk equity Income Fund Y Acc - - - - 13.1liontrust macro equity Income I Acc - - - - 15.2uk ethicalecclesiastical Amity uk B Inc 12.7 11.0 15.8 24.6 8.2 JJJJkames ethical equity B Acc 11.2 8.0 15.2 29.3 11.4 JJJJJuk small/mid Cap equityHsBC Ftse 250 Index Fund Acc C 12.5 9.0 12.7 31.6 10.5 JJJmarlborough special situations Fd Acc - - - - 19.4Old mutual uk smaller Companies Fund R Acc 11.8 12.0 17.3 37.1 10.4 JJJJRoyal london uk mid Cap Growth Fund m Acc - 13.8 19.3 34.8 13.4 JJJJthreadneedle uk mid 250 Fund RDR Z Acc 5.6 12.9 16.5 30.8 11.0 JJJ

    stAnDARDIseD PeRFORmAnCe DAtA (%) OveR tHe PAst FIve YeARs

    Please note, the performance figures shown here are based on clean share classes. Formore information about clean pricing, please visit fidelity.co.uk/pricing.

  • 18

    % (as at 31st Aug) 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014Morningstar Fund Rating

    FIXeD InCOme FunDsemerging markets local CurrencyInvestec emerging markets local Currency Debt I Acc net GBP 21.1 4.6 0.5 -5.0 -0.4 JJJPictet emerging local Curr Debt I dy GBP - 5.0 0.2 -5.4 -1.7 JJJtempleton em markets Bond W - - - 1.5 8.0european Corporate BondFidelity Funds euro Corporate Bond Fund Y-ACC-euro 9.0 6.0 -0.7 12.4 2.4 JJJJm&G european Corporate Bond Fund I Acc 2.9 6.4 -1.2 12.8 0.7 JJJJeuropean High YieldFidelity Funds european High Yield Fund Y-ACC-euro 17.0 9.6 -0.3 21.8 3.9 JJJJJInvesco Perpetual High Yield Y Acc - - - - -m&G european High Yield Bond I Acc - - - 19.4 2.2Global Aggregate Bondm&G Global macro Bond Fund I Acc 12.6 3.6 6.0 6.2 -2.0 JJJJJnewton Global Dynamic Bond Fund Inc - - - - 4.1threadneedle Global Bond Fund RDR Z Inc 8.0 -0.1 2.6 -4.0 -0.5 JJJGlobal High YieldBaring High Yield Bond Fund Class I GBP Hedged Inc 17.3 3.1 11.5 6.4 7.6 JJJInvestec monthly High Income I Acc net GBP 15.7 0.4 10.2 6.1 6.6 JJP morgan Global High Yield Bond Fund C net Acc - - - - 8.4Global Inflation linkedFidelity Funds Global Inflation-linked Bond Fund Y-GBP (hedged) 9.3 3.2 4.5 -2.9 2.6 Jstandard life Global Indexed lkd Bond P1 Fund Acc - - - -3.8 6.7strategic BondHenderson Preference & Bond I Inc 21.2 0.4 11.5 5.9 10.6 JJJJJJupiter strategic Bond I Class Acc - - - 8.3 8.3m&G Optimal Income Fund I Acc 13.4 3.5 12.8 8.1 8.5 JJJJJuk AggregateFidelity strategic Bond Fund Y-Income-Gross 14.7 1.8 10.9 3.9 9.5 JJJHenderson sterling Bond Fund I Acc 25.9 3.7 11.3 3.4 8.9 JJJuk CorporateBaillie Gifford Corporate Bond Fund B Acc 23.0 9.1 12.2 6.0 12.0 JJJJJBlackRock Corporate Bond tracker Fund Class D Acc - - 11.5 2.7 8.1 JJJHenderson strategic Bond I Inc 16.0 0.4 11.6 5.9 10.2 JJJJJm&G strategic Corporate Bond Fund I Acc 14.1 2.3 12.3 3.0 9.2 JJJJuk Government BondAllianz Gilt Yield Fund C Inc 8.3 3.3 11.5 -4.8 5.4 JJJJHenderson Institutional uk Gilt I Inc 7.1 3.6 11.9 -4.9 4.8 JJJJHsBC uk Gilt Index Fund Acc C - 3.1 10.8 -5.0 6.0 JJJRoyal london uk Government Bond Fund m Inc - - - -4.5 5.4uk Inflation linkedHenderson Index-linked Bond I Inc 9.1 10.6 12.8 2.2 9.3 JJJJlegal&General As Indx link Glt Inx m Acc 9.7 8.6 10.4 2.0 9.4 JJJJm&G Index-linked Bond Fund I Acc - - - 1.8 9.4PROPeRtY FunDsProperty listedAberdeen Property share Fund I-Acc - - - - 15.8Fidelity Global Property Fund W-Accumulation (uk) 20.0 6.8 15.4 7.0 12.8 JJJJJm&G Global Real estate securities Fund I Acc 22.6 8.8 14.9 3.0 11.2 JJJJProperty PhysicalHsBC Open Global Property Acc C 13.7 3.5 6.2 8.2 12.0 JJJIgnis uk Property Fund - - - 3.6 -COmmODItIes FunDsCommodities GeneralFirst state Global Resources B Acc 25.6 17.7 -23.0 -6.9 8.5 JJJJmartin Currie Global Resources B GBP - - - - 5.5Commodities Precious metalsBlackRock Gold & General Fund Class D Inc 38.5 20.8 -26.0 -28.0 -8.5 JJJJInvestec Global Gold Fund 44.3 18.7 -24.3 -27.7 -9.0 JJJJ

    stAnDARDIseD PeRFORmAnCe DAtA (%) OveR tHe PAst FIve YeARs

    the investment policy of Fidelity strategic Bond Fund means it can be more than 35% invested in government and public securities. these can be issued or guaranteed by other

    countries and governments. For a full list please refer to the funds prospectus.

    source: morningstar from 31.8.09 to 31.8.14. Basis: bid to bid with income reinvested net of uk basic-rate tax. excludes initial charge. For the latest yields please call 0800414161 or visit fidelity.co.uk. Copyright 2014 morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

    Please note, the performance figures shown here are based on clean share classes. Formore information about clean pricing, please visit fidelity.co.uk/pricing.

  • Issued by FIl Investments International, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Fidelity, Fidelity Worldwide Investment, the Fidelity Worldwide Investment logo and F symbol are trademarks of FIl limited. ukD1409/33402/PssO599/0315

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