fiber-to-the-home council north america
DESCRIPTION
Fiber-to-the-Home Council North America. North American FTTH Deployment Update. Presented by: Michael C. Render. Vendor information and interviews (nearly all). Provider information and detailed interviews (over 1/3). Consumer input (initial 100K panel). Current FTTH Status. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Fiber-to-the-Home Council
North America
Presented by:Michael C. Render
North American FTTH Deployment Update
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Vendor information and interviews (nearly all)
Provider information anddetailed interviews (over 1/3)
Consumer input(initial 100K panel)
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Current FTTH StatusCurrent FTTH Status
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970,000
15,170,900
13,825,000
11,763,000
9,552,300
8,003,000
6,099,000
4,089,0002,696,846
19,400 72,100 180,3001,619,500
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
Sep-0
1
Mar
-02
Sep-0
2
Mar
-03
Sep-0
3
Mar
-04
Sep-0
4
Mar
-05
Sep-0
5
Mar
-06
Sep-0
6
Mar
-07
Sep-0
7
Mar
-08
Sep-0
8
Mar
-09
FTTH Homes Passed Cumulative – North America
RVALLC 2007
RVALLC 2009
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10,082,065
13,875,600
12,369,000
413,221
7,996,400
6,643,000
5,079,999
3,218,600
1,754,300
19,400 72,100 180,300 829,700
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
RVALLC 2007
RVALLC 2009
FTTH Homes Marketed
Cumulative – North America
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FTTH Homes Connected Cumulative – North America
3,760,000
4,422,000
2,912,500
322,700
2,142,000
1,478,597
1,011,000
671,000
213,000146,50064,70022,5005,500
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
RVALLC 2007
RVALLC 2009
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FTTH PenetrationCumulative – United States
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Passed
Connected
RVALLC 2007
RVALLC 2009
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FTTH Video Homes Connected (Cumulative – North America)
1,641,000
2,195,000
2,654,300
110,000
1,054,000
611,400
408,800260,900101,40087,90037,5009,6751,925
0
250,000
500,000
750,000
1,000,000
1,250,000
1,500,000
1,750,000
2,000,000
2,250,000
2,500,000
2,750,000
3,000,000
RVALLC 2007
RVALLC 2009
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Overall Take-Rate For FTTH
(Cumulative – North America)
28.8%
31.8%
30.4%
26.8%22.3%
19.9%20.8%
35.4%
18.4%
26.0%
41.3%
35.9%
29.0%31.2%
34.5%
28.4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
RVALLC 2007Note: Percent of all homes-marketed taking something over fiber..
RVALLC 2009
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52.4%
52.6%51.9%51.5%
51.8%52.4%
51.0%
43.7%
48.2%47.4%
41.3%
35.9%
29.0%31.2%
34.5%
28.4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Overall Take-Rate For FTTH Non RBOCCumulative – North America By Year
RVALLC 2007
RVALLC 2009
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RBOC Take-Rate For FTTH
Cumulative – North America
23.0%
27.0%
25.0%
19.0%17.6%
14.6%15.5%
3.0%
9.8%8.3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
RVALLC 2007
RVALLC 2009
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Year-To-Year Growth In Homes Connected (12 month averages)
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Copper
Coax
Fiber
Note: Years since start of installations RVALLC 2009
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Current Status Of FTTH Growth
In North America By Country
United StatesCanadaMexicoCaribbean
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Current Status Of FTTH Growth
United States By Provider TypeVerizonOther RBOCsTier 2 ILECsTier 3 ILECsCLECsMunisIntegratorsMSOs
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1.8
2.1
2.2
3.4
4.4
5.1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Tel - RBOC
Tel - ILEC
MSO/Cable
Municipality/PUD
CLEC
DEV/Integrator
Three Year Change in Connections
RVALLC 2009
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FTTH Homes Connected By SegmentCumulative – North America
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
1/3 of US (Aggressive ILECs)
Other 2/3 of US
RVALLC 2007
RVALLC 2009Note: Does not show first half 2009
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Verizon (10% of their 32 million customers connected with fiber)
Drivers:- Need for new model
- FTTH Council member
- Visionary view
- Outside plant setup
- Regulation changes
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Small Rural Telephone Companies (8% of their 8 million customers connected with fiber)
Drivers:- Aging copper lines
- Television opportunity
- Pioneering tradition
- Subsidies
Note: This rural telephone association map shows some, but not all, Tier 3 ILECs
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2.5%
1.1%
3.2%
6.9%
4.2%
0.8%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
5000 and above
1000-4999
250-999
75-249
25-74
Under 24
FTTH Connection Penetration By Zip Code Density
(Density = Homes per sq mile)
RVALLC 2009
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1,125,600
3,300,300
0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000
3 RBOCs (mostly Verizon)
681 Other providers* x1653 average
The Importance of Smaller Players
RVALLC 2009* Includes CLECs that are divisions of ILECs
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25%
14%
43%
18%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Very unlikely
Somewhat unlilkely
Somewhat likely
Very likely
Likelihood Of Deploying FTTH Within 3 Years
Tier 3 ILECs Currently Not Deploying FTTH
RVALLC 2009
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44%
32%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Homes passed
Homes connected
Additional 2009 Growth Anticipated
Tier 3 ILECs Currently Deploying FTTH
RVALLC 2009
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Current ProspectsCurrent Prospects
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00.20.40.60.8
11.21.41.61.8
2
Mil
lion
s
Housing starts
New home sales
New home inventories
Housing Statistics
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25%
14%
43%
18%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Very unlikely
Somewhat unlilkely
Somewhat likely
Very likely
Likelihood Of Deploying FTTH Within 3 Years
Tier 3 ILECs Currently Not Deploying FTTH
RVALLC 2009
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44%
32%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Homes passed
Homes connected
Additional 2009 Growth Anticipated
Tier 3 ILECs Currently Deploying FTTH
RVALLC 2009
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Effect of U.S. Stimulus Plan
• Some “de-stimulus” early 2009
• Some stimulus beginning late 2009
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29%
37%
45%
58%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Grants
Tax deductions
Tax credits
Low interest loans
Likelihood Of Deploying More By IncentiveTier 3 ILECS
(Percent rating somewhat or much more likely)
RVALLC 2009
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9%
9%
54%
86%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Grants
Low interest loans
Tax credits
Tax deductions
Likelihood Of Deploying More By IncentiveMunicipalities
(Percent rating somewhat or much more likely)
RVALLC 2009
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Consumer ResponseConsumer Response
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2008 Research Continues To Show FTTH Users Work One
AdditionalDay Per Month At Home Due To
FTTH
- Nearly 9% work more from home directly because of FTTH – an average of 11 days more
Days worked from home increased:
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30%
60%
66%
86%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
FTTH
Cable Modem*
DSL*
Dial-up*
Internet Customer SatisfactionComparison With Other Services
(Those somewhat or very satisfied)
RVALLC 2009* From 2006 data
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9.915.1
30.9
23.017.1
12.79.47.05.2
63.6
46.6
34.2
25.1
18.413.5
20.527.8
37.8
51.3
69.6
94.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Download Mbps
HD Devices Mbps
Total Mbps
RVALLC 2009
Peak Bandwidth Demand Per Average FTTH UserIncluding Internet Download And IPTV HD Devices
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17%
19%
20%
21%
23%
27%
29%
32%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Online face-to-face visits with doctorsand nurses
Switching between TV, Internet, andphone with one device
Viewing advanced websites with fullscreen video pages
Monitoring home or pets via videowhile away
Making two-way "video calls" (highquality picture)
Advanced online shopping (enhancedviewing, etc.)
Work from home with morespeed/video conferencing, etc.
Advanced online college opportunities(lecture on demand, etc.)
Percent Believing Future Non Entertainment
FTTH Applications Are ImportantAmong Those 55 And Over
RVALLC 2008
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Fiber-to-the-Home Council
North America
Presented by:Michael C. Render
North American FTTH Deployment Update