fi marketing - sgfi, dan shapiro
TRANSCRIPT
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OverviewOverview
Conventional vs. Viral
How to do conventional
How to do viral How to do PR
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ConConventventionaiona
llmarmarketiketi
ngng
Pros
Cons
Predictablecosts &results
Lots of talent Boss sees name
on TV
Hard tomeasureresults
Growing lesseffective
Costs$250mm /
product
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ViraVira
llmarmarketiketi
ngng
Pros
Cons
Basically free
Highlymeasurable
Ridiculouslyeffective
Usually fails
Failure is silent
Effectiveness
cannot bescaled withdollars
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FREE Viral or word of mouth
marketing
ARPU of $1 or less
Kayak
PAID Traditional marketing
ARPU of $20 or more
Classmates Amazon
Expedia
There are really just two kinds of There are really just two kinds of
businesses on the internetbusinesses on the internet
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The secret of viralThe secret of viralmarketing is just one thingmarketing is just one thing
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The secret of viralThe secret of viralmarketing is just one thingmarketing is just one thing(And nobody knows what thehell it is)
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SO ISO I THO THOUGHUGH T I’D T I’DASK ASK THE THEPROPRO
S.S.
Epidemiologists, that is. They get paid to think about this stuff so we don’t alldie.
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Their secret: Their secret: The basic reproduction number The basic reproduction number
RR00
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Modeling viralityModeling virality
R 0 Number of people each customer infects/year
T Number of years
C Number of customers today
C’ Number of customers after T years
’=Ce (TR 0 )
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Why Mobile Isn’t ViralWhy Mobile Isn’t Viral
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Basic reproduction rate of Basic reproduction rate of
common viral phenomenacommon viral phenomenaVector R 0
Measles Airborne 101
Polio Fecal-oral route 63
HIV/AIDS Sexual contact 44
SARS Airborne droplet 45
Swine flu (2009 strain) Social contact 1.56
. . / / / / .ent psu edu onb1 publ frais2006 graisetal2006 pdf, , / - / . = ; = ; = ; = .ntela Inc 4 20 4 27 n 338 for Facebook n 322 for Gmail n 248 for myspace n 149 for Twitter
. . / / / / / / .cdc gov agent smallpox training overview pdf eradicationhistory pdf
, ( ). " : ".May RM 1979 Population biology of infectious diseases Part I Nature 28 0 ( ): – 5721 361 7 ( ). " ". . . .Teunis P 2004 Different epidemic curves for severe acute respiratory syndrome reveal similar impacts of control measures Am J Epidemiol, ( ). “ ( ): ”. . . . . , - nelly et al 2009 Pandemic Potential of a Strain of Influenza A H1N1 Early Findings Science Vol 324 no 5934 1557 1561
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Basic reproduction rate of Basic reproduction rate of
common viral phenomenacommon viral phenomena
. . / / / / .ent psu edu onb1 publ frais2006 graisetal2006 pdf, , / - / . = ; = ; = ; = .ntela Inc 4 20 4 27 n 338 for Facebook n 322 for Gmail n 248 for myspace n 149 for Twitter
. . / / / / / / .cdc gov agent smallpox training overview pdf eradicationhistory pdf
, ( ). " : ".May RM 1979 Population biology of infectious diseases Part I Nature 28 0 ( ): – 5721 361 7 ( ). " ". . . .Teunis P 2004 Different epidemic curves for severe acute respiratory syndrome reveal similar impacts of control measures Am J Epidemiol, ( ). “ ( ): ”. . . . . , - nelly et al 2009 Pandemic Potential of a Strain of Influenza A H1N1 Early Findings Science Vol 324 no 5934 1557 1561
Vector R 0
Measles Airborne 101
Facebook Invitation 62
Polio Fecal-oral route 63
Gmail Email footer, invitation 52
HIV/AIDS Sexual contact 44
MySpace Invitation 42
SARS Airborne droplet 45
Twitter Social contact 1.52
Swine flu (2009 strain) Social contact 1.56
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There is one problemThere is one problem
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Corn Sm utCorn Sm ut
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Facebook = swine flu !=Facebook = swine flu !=
mobile appsmobile apps 65% don’t have a dataplan65% don’t have a dataplan
75% are on a different carrier 75% are on a different carrier
70% don’t have smartphones70% don’t have smartphones
98% don’t have iPhones*98% don’t have iPhones*
*(outside of California)
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Facebook = swine flu !=Facebook = swine flu !=
mobile appsmobile apps 65% don’t have a dataplan65% don’t have a dataplan
75% are on a different carrier 75% are on a different carrier
70% don’t have smartphones70% don’t have smartphones
98% don’t have iPhones98% don’t have iPhones
etcetc
etcetc
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3 Rules of Viral3 Rules of Viral
Market must be homogenous
Product must be compelling
Must iterate until you find a greatgimmick
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ConventionalConventional
Just like viral, there’s only one numberthat really matters
(but this one doesn’t require exponents or the base of natural logarithms)
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Profit MarginProfit Margin
C Cost to acquire a customer
R Lifetime revenue per customer
P Profit margin (as a percentage)
= -CR
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So you have to do twoSo you have to do two
thingsthings
1.Get customers cheaply
› Radio
› TV
› Adwords
› Sponsorships
› Contests
› All the usual stuff marketers do
2.Make a ton of money from each one
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PRPR
Kind of the “third way”
Compliments the other things you’re
doing Really easy to do badly
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PR basicsPR basics
Figure out the stories you want told
›
›
›
›
Figure out who you want to tell them
›
›
›
Start networking
›
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PR basicsPR basics
Figure out the stories you want told› It’s really easy to use the product
› Camera phones are taking off
›
Major carriers are deploying it› Ontela’s a great place to work
Figure out who you want to tell them› Lifestyle (not technology) writers
› Wireless press
› Local startup press
›
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Do reporters’ jobs for themDo reporters’ jobs for them
Befriend a reporter or journalism major
Be controversial
Tell a story Use quotable language
Design what you say to translate
directly to the article
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ExamplesExamples
Wrong:Camera phone usage climbed 20%
while film camera usage dropped15%.
Right:Camera Phone Kills Film Cameras
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Handy trickHandy trick
Turn your internal market research in tonews
› Release usage patterns by platform andimply that the trends are universal
› Survey people on something you careabout and report the results
›
Just don’t make it obviously self serving!
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SummarySummary
Know thyself: viral or conventional
If viral, expect iteration to take years
If conventional, expect big success totake millions
Help reporters and they’ll help you
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Thanks! Thanks!
Dan ShapiroCEO, Ontela Inc.
Twitter: @danshapiroWeb: www.danshapiro.com/blogEmail