FERTILITY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

THEMACMILLAN SERIESOF ILO STUDIES

w. R. Bohning STUDIES IN INTERNATIONALLABOURMIGRATIONGhazi M. Farooq and George B. Simmons (editors) FERTILITY IN

DEVELOPING COUNTRIESDharam Ghai, Azizur Rahman Khan, Eddy Lee and Samir Radwan

(editors) AGRARIAN SYSTEMS AND RURAL DEVELOPMENTJeffrey James and Susumu Watanabe (editors) TECHNOLOGY, INSTI­

TUTIONS ANDGOVERNMENT POLICIESAzizur Rahman Khan and Dharam Ghai COLLECTIVE AGRICULTURE

AND RURALDEVELOPMENT IN SOVIET CENTRALASIAGuy Standing UNEMPLOYMENT AND FEMALELABOURWouter van Ginneken and Christopher Baron (editors) APPROPRIATE

PRODUCTS, EMPLOYMENT AND TECHNOLOGY

The World Employment Programme (WEP) was launched by the Inter­national Labour Organisation in 1969, as the ILO's main contribution tothe International Development Strategy for the Second United NationsDevelopment Decade.

The meansof action adopted by the WEP have included the following:- short-term high-level advisory missions;-Jonger-term national or regionalemployment teams; and~ a wide-ranging researchprogramme.

Through these activities the ILO has been able to help national decision­makers to reshape their policiesand plans with the aim of eradicating masspovertyand unemployment.

A landmark in the development of the WEP was the World EmploymentConference of 1976, which proclaimed inter alia that 'strategiesjndnational development plans should include as a priority objective the pro­motion of employment and the satisfaction of the basic needs of eachcountry's population'. The Declaration of Principles and Programme ofAction adopted by the Conference will remain the cornerstone of WEPtechnicalassistance and researchactivities during the 1980s.

This publication is the outcome of a WEP project.

FERTILITY INDEVELOPINGCOUNTRIES

An Economic Perspectiveon Research and Policy

Issues

Edited and introduced by

Ghazi M. Farooqand

George B. Simmons

Foreword byRafael M. Salas

A study prepared for the International Labour Office within theframework of the World Employment Programme with the financialsupport of the United Nations Fund for Population Activities

MMACMILLAN

© International Labour Organisation 1985

Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1985

All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmissionof this publication may be made without written permission.

No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied ortransmitted save with written permission or in accordance withthe provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988,or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copyingissued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 33-4 Alfred Place,London WCIE 7DP.

Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation tothis publication may be liable to criminal prosecution andcivil claims for damages.

First published 1985Reprinted 1991

Published byMACMILLAN ACADEMIC AND PROFESSIONAL LTDHoundmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 2XSand LondonCompanies and representativesthroughout the world

British Library Cataloguing in Publication DataFertility in developing countries.I . Developing countries - PopulationI. Farooq, Ghazi M. II. Simmons, George B.304.6'2'091724 HB881ISBN 978-1-349-07307-8 ISBN 978-1-349-07305-4 (eBook)

The designations employed in ILO publications, which are in conformity with UnitedNations practice, and the presentation of material therein do not imply the expression of anyopinion whatsoever on the part of the International Labour Office concerning the legal statusof any country, area or territory or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of itsfrontiers.

The responsibility for opinions expressed in studies and other contributions rests solely withtheir authors, and publication does not constitute an endorsement by the International LabourO~fice of the opinions expressed in them.

Reference to names of firms and commercial products and processes does not imply theirendorsement by the International Labour Office, and any failure to mention a particular firm,commercial product or process is not a sign of disapproval. .

DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-07305-4

Contents

List ofFiguresList of TablesForeword by Rafael M. SalasPrefaceNotes on the Contributors

PART I: OVERVIEW

xiixiiixviixix

xxiii

1 Introduction George B. Simmons and Ghazi M. Farooq 3This Volume 4Patterns of Population Growth 5Reasons for Interest in Fertili ty Research 8An Economic Approach to the Study of Fertility 13

2 Theories of Fertility George B. Simmons 20About Theory 21Two Nineteenth-century Paradigms - Malthus and Marx 24

Malthus 25Man 27Neo-Malthusian theory 29

The Demographic Transition Theory and Other AggregativeApproaches to Fertility 30

The theory of the demographic transition 31Theories of post-transition fluctuations in fertility 32Alternative macro-economic approaches 33

Micro-economic Theories of Fertility Behaviour 34The new home-economics approach 37The social determinants school of thought 42Summary of micro-economic approaches to the study offertility 48

New Theoretical Approaches 49Concluuon 54

v

vi Contents

Appendix: The Formal Structure of Micro-economic Modelsof Fertility Behaviour Eric Jensen 55

3 Research on the Detenninants of FertDity GeorgeB. Simmons 67Findings from Empirical Research on Fertility 67

Proximate or intermediate variables influencing fertility 70Variables corresponding to the characteristics of familiesand their immediate environment 74The environment 90Sununuy 95

Problems with Empirical Research on the Economics ofFertility 95

Problems of variable definition and measurement 97Problems with econometric specification 102On the limitations of the economic approach to empirical~_ 1~

4 Towards a Policy-relevant Framework GeorgeB. SimmonsandGhazi M. Farooq 109

The Economics of Fertility as Science 109General tests of economic models of fertility and fmdingsfrom the empirical studies in this volume 110General observations concerning the economic approachto research 112

The Policy Significance of Economic Research on Fertility 115Research Strategies and the Empirical Studies in this Volume 120

PART II: METHODOLOGICAL PROBLEMS

5 The Definition of Fertility: Measurement IssuesGhazi M. Farooq

IntroductionMacro Measures of Fertility

Period fertility ratesAdjusted period fertility ratesCohort fertilityConclusion

Micro Measures of FertilityActual fertilityFamily-size preferencesConclusion

123

125125126127132135137137138142145

Contents vii

6 Tbne-leries, Cross-sections and Poolil1l Mark Browning 149Time-series versus Cross-sections 150Pooling Cross-section, Time-series Data 153Estimation with Pooled Data 155Appendix: The Formal Model Specification 160

7 Agregate Data in Economic-Demographic AnalysisLee E. Edlefsen and Samuel S. Lieberman 171

The Estimation and Interpretation of Structural DemandFunctions 172

Introduction 172Econometric issues 172Theoretical issues 179Summary 184

The Estimation and Interpretation of Reduced Forms 185Introduction 185Reduced forms of a general equilibrium system 186Reduced forms when there are individual-level effects ofaggregate variables 187Summary 189

Conclu~on 190

8 Specification and Estimation of Models of FertilityBoone A. Turchi 193

Introduction 193Causal analysis and fertility research 194The role of theory in the modelling process 196

Some Theoretical Considerations 196Causal Estimates from Non-experimental Data 198

Recursive models and their advantages 198Interdependent simultaneous-equation models 202Latent, omitted and badly ..measured variables 205Interpreting the results 208

Some General Conclusions 209

9 Simulation Techniques in Fertility Analysis GerryB. Rodgersand Rene WeT)' 213

Simulation versus Analytical Solutions 213The Effects of Economic Policy on Fertility: IllustrativeMacro-simulations 218

Introduction 218

viii Contents

The fertility functions 219Policy experiments 229

Conclusions 236

10 Some Aspects of Anthropological ContributionsChristine Oppong 240

Introduction 240Anthropological approaches 242Conceptual concerns: family phenomena 243

Roles, Relationships and Resources 246Some hypotheses linking parental roles, resources andfertility 249

Anthropological Methods and Research Design 252Field-work 252Data collection techniques 253Data analysis: qualitative and quantitative 254Types of research design: some examples 254

Ethnographic Evidence from Ghana 255Children: allocation of benefits 258Conjugal 'jointness' and nuclear family 'closure': powertension and change 260Norms: the chain of change 263Mobility, resource scarcity and the retreat fromparenthood 264Women teachers: the crumbling of high-fertility supports 265Male teachers: parental costs and fertility regulation 267Maternal values and aspirations 270

Conclusion 270

PART III: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM DEVELOPINGCOUNTRIES 275

11 Problems of Interpretation and Specification in AnalysingFertility Differentials: Illustrated with Kenyan Survey DataRichardAnker 277Introduction 277Data 279Theoretical Model 280Estimation of Non-linear Relationships 283Problems in the Interpretation of Regression Results 301

Contents

Predicting Future Trends in Fertility RatesSummary and Conclusions

ix

305306

12 Household Fertility Decision-making in NigeriaGhazi M. Farooq 312

Introduction 312Data and Fertility Concepts 313

The survey 313Measurement of fertility as the dependent variable 314

Theoretical Considerations for the Explanatory Variables andtheir Specification 316

Socio-economic factors 317CuItural factors 320Mortality factor 322Biological and life-cycle factors 322Family-planning factors 323

Empirical Results 324The determinants of cumulative fertility: urban results 328The determinants of cumulative fertility: rural results 336Family-size preferences 341

Conclusion and Policy Implications 342

13 Demand for Children in Rural India M. T. R. Sarma 351Introduction 351Empirical Results 353Summing Up 363

14 Differential Fertility in Rural Turkey SamuelS. Liebermanand Richard T. Monteverde 365

The Setting: Demographic and Socio-economic Patterns 365The Community Model: Aggregate-level Analysis 371The Micro Model 386Conclu~on 395Appendix: Construction of Mortality, Marital Fertility andNet Outmigration Indices 397

15 Marital Fertility and Employment in Non-agriculturalSectors in Yugoslavia Miroslav Macura 403

Marital Fertility Measures, Fertility Variations and DataSources 404

Marital fertility measures 404

x Contents

Recent temporal and regional fertility variations 406Data sources 408

Theoretical Framework 409Theoretical determinants of marital fertility 410Theoretical determinants of employment participation ofmarried women 415

Model Specifications and Empirical Results 417Model specifications 417Marital fertility results 418Employment participation results 424

Summary 429

16 A Comparative Study of Costa Rica and MexicoAndras Uthoffand Gerardo Gonzalez 434

Introduction 434The Measurement of Fertility and its Decomposition 437Education, Marital Status and Labour-force Participation asDeterminants of Differential Fertility 442Probable Effect of the Principal Changes in the Female Popu­lation Characteristics on the Average Number of Live Births 452Conclusions 455

17 Can Income Redistribution Reduce Fertllity? C. R. Winegarden 462Introduction 462Review of the Literature 463The Theoretical Issues 466

The direct result of lessened income inequality is to raiseferttlity 466Reduced income disparities decrease mortality 467Fertility is a non-monotonic function of mortalityconditions 467High fertility worsens mortality experience 467High fertility, operating through the rate of populationgrowth, has a disequalising effect on income distribution 468

The Econometric Model 468An overview 468Specification of the fertility equation 470Specification of the income-distribution equation 472Specification of the life-expectation equation 474Specification of the population-growth equation 474

Statistical Results: Structural Estimates 475

Contents

The Reduced-form AnalysisConclusionsData Appendix

BibliographyIndex

xi

477484486

490521

List of Figures

1.1 A simple view of the determinants of fertility 183.1 The determinants of fertility in developing countries 695.1 Relation of preference orders to [-scale numbers 1448.1 Hypothetical causal model of the demand for children 1998.2 Algebraic representation of three models 2018.3 Model of fertility and labour-force participation 2038.4 Latent-variable version of model in Figure 8.3 207

10.1 Familial roles, changing norms and values, and lowerfamily-size preferences 268

10.2 Changing familial role behaviours and fertility regulation 26911.1 Predicted net relationship between husband's education

and total number of births 29011.2 Predicted net relationship between wife's education and

total number of births 29111.3 Predicted net relationship between number of months breast-

feeding and number of births 29215.1 Age schedules of marital fertility underlied by different

combinations of M and m 40515.2 lliustration of approximately linear relation between Inm

and X when relation between TMFR ana X is linear; TMFR =2.0 +0.3 X andM= 0.6 406

16.1 Crude birth and death rates in Costa Rica and Mexico,1910-73 435

16.2 Age-specific fertility rates 436

xii

List of Tables

1.1 Total population size and average annual rates of growth, bymajor regions, 1950-80 6

1.2 Vital rates for major world regions, 1975-80 71.3 Governments' perceptions of the effect of natural increase on

development, its acceptability and the desirability of inter-vention to change rates, by areas of responsibility of regionalcommissions and level of development, July 1978 10

1.4 Percentage of the population by category of view of theconsequences of current rates of natural increase, areas ofresponsibility of regional commissions and level ofdevelopment 12

1.5 Advantages of having children: percentage of respondentswho mentioned at least one advantage under each ofspecified major code categories, by socio-economic (SES)group and country 15

1.6 Disadvantages of having children: percentage of respondentswho mentioned at least one disadvantage under each ofspecified major code categories, by socio-economic groupand country 16

3.1 A summary of the effects of individual variables on fertility 969.1 Summary of the fertility functions - elasticities with respect

to explanatory variables 2209.2 Reference runs with different fertility functions; basic

reference RR in absolute figures for 1965, 1985,2000; allother runs percentage comparison with RR in 2000 225

9.3 Education experiment: effects on fertility in 1985 and 2000 2319.4 Education experiment: effects on variables other than

fertility (2000) 2329.5 Egalitarian development: select'ed outcomes for 1985 and

2000 23411.1 Alternative regression on fertility (CEB) among married

women in Kenya 284

xiii

xiv List of Tables

11.2 Regressions on fertility (CEB) among married women inKenya by residence and tribe 296

12.1 Definitions, means and standard deviations of the variablesused in estimation of fertility equations for south-westernNigeria: complete sample (based on household questionnaire)and partial sample (eligible women who completed femalequestionnaire) 325

12.2 Regressions on fertility (CEB) among urban women in south­western Nigeria by age: complete sample of eligible women 330

12.3 Regressions on fertility (CEB) among urban women in south­western Nigeria by age: partialsample consisting of theeligible women who completed the female questionnaire 334

12.4 Regressions on fertility (CEB) among rural women in south­western Nigeria by age: complete sample of eligible women 337

12.5 Regressions on fertility (CEB) among rural women in south­western Nigeria by age: partial sample consisting of theeligible women who completed the female questionnaire 339

12.6 Regressions on desired family-size (DFS) among urban womenin south-western Nigeria by age: partialsample consisting ofthe eligible women who completed the female questionnaire 342

12.7 Regressions on desired family-size (DFS) among rural womenin south-western Nigeria by age: partialsample consisting ofthe eligible women who completed the female questionnaire 344

13.1 Means and standard deviations of variables used in regressionsfor different age-cohorts of women in landed and landlesshouseholds in rural India 354

13.2 Regressions on children ever born among currently-marriedwomen in landed and landless households in rural Indiaby age 360

14.1 Means and standard deviations of social, economic andagricultural indicators by region, 1970 368

14.2 Demographic rates in Turkey's rural sector: means andstandard deviations by region 370

14.3 Names and definitions of variables: county data set 37214.4 Regression results, community model: dependent variable,

OM 37614.5 Regression results, community model: dependent variables,

CEB, If 38014.6 Regression results, community model: dependent variables,

Ig,Im 384

List of Tables xv

14.7 Variable definitions, means and standard deviations: the micromodel 390

14.8 Regression results, micro model: dependent variable, numberof live births (NOLVBR) 392Appendix: correlation matrix for variables in micro analysis,community subsample 398

15.1 Total fertility rates, 1950-75, and marital fertility indicesfor non-agricultural sectors, 1971: Yugoslavia and regions 407

15.2 Definitions, means and standard deviations of variables 41215.3 Regressions on marital fertility during early childbearing

years: dependent variable, M 1 41915.4 Regressions on marital fertility during intermediate child-

bearing years: dependent variable, In M2 42115.5 Regressions on employment of married women during early

childbearing years: dependent variable, EMW 20-4 42515.6 Regressions on employment of married women during inter­

mediate childbearing years: dependent variable, EMW 25-34 42716.1 Changes in female population composition: Mexico City,

1960-70 43716.2 Changes in female population composition: San Jose de

Costa Rica, 1963-73 43816.3 Average number of live births per 100 women by age, labour-

force participation and occupation 44316.4 Average number of live births per 100 women by age,

education and labour-force participation 44416.5 .Average number of live births per 100 women by age, .

marital status and labour-force participation 44616.6 Percentage total inequality in the average number of live

births explained by variations in labour-force participation,marital status and education 448

16.7 Percentage total inequality in the average number of livebirths explained by variations in labour-force participation,marital status and education; interactions included andexcluded 449

16.8 Percentage total inequality in the average number of livebirths for active and non-active women explained byvariations in marital status, education and occupation 450

16.9 Concentration index of labour-force participation amongwomen grouped by marital status, education and number oflive births 451

xvi List of Tables

16.10A Effects of changes in age-structure, labour-force participationand education on the average number of live births 453

16.10B Effects of changes in age-structure, labour-force participationand marital status on the average number of live births 454

16.11 Effects of female population composition on the averagenumber of live births by occupational status and age:Mexico (Mexico City) 456

16.12 Effects of female population composition on the averagenumber of live births by occupational status and age:Costa Rica (San Jose) 458

17.1 OLS regression results: fertility equations 47617.2 3SLS regression results: simultaneous system 47817.3 Derived reduced-form coefficients: endogenous variables 48017.4 Derived reduced-form coefficients: exogenous variables 483

Foreword

The dynamics of population in the developing countries during the past30 years has been unique, and has not only led to a re-examination of tra­ditional explanations for demographic transition, but has also questionedthe conventional thinking on the interrelationship between population anddevelopment. One of the recent consequences of this has been a closerinteraction between the fields of economics and demography. While it istrue that the ways in which an economy interrelates with the pattern ofpopulation change have always attracted economists, the present interestin the study of that interrelationship is directed towards its implicationsfor policy and programmes in developing countries.

The demographic disequilibrium that we witness in developing countriesis the result of net changes in the individual demographic processes offertility, mortality and migration. While each one of these components isuniversally important, and while anyone of them is more important thanthe other two in specific situations, fertility assumes the greatest signi­ficance in view of its implications for demographic growth, of the urgentneed for its regulation so as to achieve health and development gains, andof the difficulties of identifying effective policies and programmes forfertility regulation.

In this context, the present volume is indeed a welcome addition to theliterature on population policies in general, and on fertility dynamics inparticular. The volume has achieved a delicate balance between theory andempirical analyses. While it presents multiple views on the subject-matter,it also makes an attempt to synthesise them. The case-studies (Costa Rica,India, Kenya, Mexico, Nigeria, Turkey and Yugoslavia) illustrate the greatvariations that exist in the socio-economic context of reproduction indeveloping regions, and their inclusion in the volume makes the compara­tive analysis extremely meaningful.

In the various contributions to the book, constant references are madeto the relationship between fertility and such variables as the level ofinfant and child mortality, the distribution of income, the availability ofalternative roles for women, and the ease of access to family-planning

xvii

xviii Foreword

services. Thus, fertility emerges as a variable which both influences and isinfluenced by a wide range of economic and social factors.

Further aspects of the volume that are particularly noteworthy are thestrong plea it makes for research to be directly relevant to policy-makingand programme-formulation, and the emphasis given to the role of govern­ment and policy processes in the development of population programmes.

It is a pleasure to welcome this volume, and to congratulate the editorsand the International Labour Office on making it available to a wideaudience.

New York RAFAEL M. SALAS

Executive DirectorUnited Nations Fund for Population Activities

Preface

Population growth and its consequences have been a concern of econo­mists since the inception of the modern science of political economy.Thomas Malthus, in A FirstEssay on Population (1798), argued that therewas a conflict between population and the standard of living. DavidRicardo and John Stuart Mill in the early and mid-1800s, and, followingthem, others known for their contributions to the development of classicaleconomic theory, also treated the relationship between population growthand economic growth as part of the main body of economic theory.

In modern times, population issues came to the forefront when the lowpopulation growth experienced by the developing countries prior to theSecond World War was transformed into unprecedented rates of naturalincrease during the 1960s and 1970s. In many countries, large-scale family­planning programmes were instituted to help curb what were seen to beexcessively rapid population growth rates. These programmes were viewedby both national governments and the international donor community asan adequate and ready-made solution to population problems. In mostcases, these high expectations were not met. Family-planning programmesdid not have nearly as much impact on population growth as was originallyexpected. It was, therefore, no surprise that at the first intergovernmentalmeeting on population, the 1974 United Nations World Population Con­ference in Bucharest, it was officially recognised that the solutions topopulation problems were to be found within the context of broad-basedsocial and economic development.

Even when the population policy objective is limited to a reduction infertility level, which appears to be the case in many Asian and some LatinAmerican and African countries, a more comprehensive population anddevelopment programme,_ not simply a family-planning programme, maybe required to achieve this goal. According to the recent United NationsInquiry among governments on population and development (UnitedNations, 1980), 46 developing countries, including four-fifths of the totalpopulation of less-developed regions, wanted lower rates of naturalincrease. Empirical evidence obtained from a number of country studiesconducted under the auspices of the ILO (International Labour Organi-

xix

xx Preface

sation) programme mentioned below, from the case-studies included inthis volume, and from elsewhere, seem to indicate that often a decline infertility is associated with an improvement in the roles and status of women,restrictions on child labour, reductions in child and infant mortality, andreductions in the incidence of poverty and inequality in income distribu­tion. The evidence on each of these points is complex, but it seems clearthat fertility reduction is part of a broad pattern of social change. As aresult, the expansion of family-planning schemes without identifying thefactors responsible for high fertility might very well turn out to be self­defeating. Moreover, the design and implementation of family-planningprogrammes may be greatly strengthened by an awareness of the contextin which fertility and contraception decisions are taken. It is in this broadcontext that the present volume could be helpful particularly to researchersand data collectors in developing countries, who have the responsibility forconducting policy-relevant fertility research that can provide guidelinesfor the designing of policies and action programmes. The volume will alsobe of interest to students of population economics, and to governmentofficials with policy-making responsibilities, especially economic planners.

The present study has a long history. In 1972, the United Nations Fundfor Population Activities (UNFPA) began providing generous support to aprogramme of research and action on population and employment basedin the ILO. From the start, this programme identified the determinants offertility as a crucial issue if the impact of population growth on income,employment and inequality were to be better understood. Papers andmonographs resulting from this programme cover a variety of aspects ofpopulation and employment, but fertility is a dominant theme; a numberof publications (ILO, 1982) dealt with attitudes to fertility, aspects ofhousehold economics, community-level factors, the interactions betweenwork and fertility, and a range of other relevant issues. The origins of thepresent volume lay in a desire to distil some general conclusions from thisresearch. Though this remains one objective, the volume also bringstogether new material and draws upon new ideas emerging from currenteconomic-demographic research in academic circles as well as in the ILO.At the same time, technical cooperation in the field of population anddevelopment has gained substantially in importance. Many of the contri­butors from the ILO, including one of the editors, are deeply involved inthese activities. This helps reinforce the policy focus of the present work.

The volume contains an examination of the more important theories offertility, with an attempt at a particularly thorough treatment of generalproblems associated with economic models of fertility. This examinationis then used as a basis for suggesting elements of an improved framework

Preface xxi

for the study of fertility. To this end, a number of methodological andmeasurement problems involved in the analysis of fertility differentialsand behaviour are identified. The idea, to reiterate, is to show how researchstrategies can be devised so that the results of research are immediatelyuseful as inputs to the formulation of effective policies and action pro­grammes in the field of population or in related areas of social concernsuch as education and employment.

The first part of the book, consisting of four chapters, provides a surveyof major theories of fertility and their limitations, suggests ways of makingsuch theories more policy-relevant and theoretically adequate, and looksat the implications of fertility research for policy and action. The secondpart, consisting of six chapters, discusses methodological issues, includingthe definition (and measurement) of fertility and key explanatory vari­ables, and empirical questions such as time-series versus cross-section andpooling techniques, aggregation and specification problems, simulation/econometric approaches, and the use of anthropological techniques andtheories to supplement economic approaches. The final part, consistingof seven chapters, includes a set of six empirical case-studies based onsurvey and/or national population census data from Kenya, Nigeria, India,Turkey, Yugoslavia, Mexico and Costa Rica, respectively. The last chapterdeals with the effects of income redistribution on fertility, using cross­sectional data for a sample of developing countries. It might be mentionedthat many of the case-studies were undertaken prior to the preparation ofthe Part I and Part II chapters. Hence, the reader should recognise thatwhile the case-studies present important empirical findings and methodo­logical insights, they do not consistently illustrate the empirical or theo­retical methods that we recommend in Part I. Thus, the state of rapidevolution in the field of fertility research is reflected in this volume.

The various chapters reflect the views of their respective authors,although there has been an extensive exchange of ideas during their pre­paration. The usual disclaimer is warranted here: studies included in thevolume represent the views of their authors and not necessarily those ofthe ILO and other contributors. Since the country case-studies deal withthe same theme, some repetition is unavoidable but, by the same token,the diversity in the analytical approaches employed by the authors ishighlighted.

Given its rather ambitious scope, the book has been under preparationfor a long time. The editors give special thanks to the contributors for thecare they have taken in' preparing their papers. We are also very gratefulfor the comments and assistance provided at various stages of preparationof the volume, in alphabetical order, by Richard Anker, Charles Calhoun,

xxii Preface

Enyinna Chuta, Deborah DeGraff, Kallas Doctor, Janet Farooq, JasonFinkle, Rolph Van Der Hoeven, Eric Jensen, Ashok Madan, Gerry Rodgers,Rene Wery and a score of other colleagues. We should also like to thankLucie de Vries and Nancy Wolfe who did a major part of the typing, andJane Mackie-Mason, Murali Vemuri and Nancy Biller for research andeditorial. assistance. Finally, we express our gratitude to UNFPA for pro­vi-ding generous financial support for the programme under which thisbook was prepared. The editorship is named alphabetically since the twoeditors of this book shared the work and responsibilities equally.

We do not regard this volume as the final word in the rapidly changing,and often disputed, field 'of fertility research. Rather, it is one step in anongoing programme, a review and reassessment of the issues, which mayadvance the debate. If this volume raises the interest of readers in criticallyanalysing the determinants of fertility, and increases their ability to do so,then it will have well served its purpose.

GHAZI M. FAROOQ

GEORGEB. SIMMONS

Notes on the Contributors

The contributors to this volume represent a wide variety of countriesand backgrounds and are all well known in the field of population anddevelopment economics. They have all done research on the problems ofmore than one developing coun try, and each has to his/her credit a numberof important publications in areas varying from fertility, family planningand role of women to employment, income distribution, poverty anddevelopment.

The following is a list of the contributors with their affiliations:

The editors

Ghazi-M. Farooq, International Labour Office, Geneva

George B. Simmons, Center of Population Planning, University of Michigan

The other contributors

Richard Anker, International Labour Office, Geneva

Mark Browning, Department of Economics, University of Illinois

Lee E. Edlefsen, Department of Economics, University of Washington

Gerardo Gonzalez, United Nations Latin America Demographic Center,Santiago

Samuel S. Lieberman, Population Council, New York

Miroslav Macura, Population Division, United Nations, New York

Richard T. Monteverde, Harvard University

Christine Oppong, International Labour Office, Geneva

Gerry B. Rodgers, International Labour Office, Geneva

xxiii

xxiv Notes on the Contributors

M. T. R. Sarma, Consultant with the International Labour Office, RegionalOffice in Bangkok

Boone A. Turchi, Department of Economics and the Carolina PopulationCenter, University of North Carolina

Andras Uthoff, Regional Employment Programme for Latin America andthe Caribbean, ILO, Santiago

Rene Wery, International Labour Office, Geneva

C. R. Winegarden, Department of Economics, University of Toledo