fei chai, peng xiu, enrique curchitser pacific ocean roms ... · fei chai, peng xiu, enrique...

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Pacific Ocean ROMS-CoSiNE Modeling (12-km) Incorporating optics into ROMS-CoSiNE-EcoLight Future predications for CCS based on

GFDL/ESM-ROMS-CoSiNE

Future changes of nutrient dynamics and biological productivity in California Current System

Fei Chai, Peng Xiu, Enrique Curchitser

Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) 1/8 deg. (~12km)

(Chai et al., 2002, 2003, 2007, 2009; Fujii and Chai, 2007; Liu and Chai, 2009; Xiu and Chai, 2011, Palacz et al., 2011, Xu et al., 2013, Xiu and Chai, 2013, 2014)

Carbon, Silicate, Nitrogen Ecosystem Model (CoSiNE-13)

Phytoplankton Comparison (1998-‐2007)SeaWiFS ChlorophyllModeled Chlorophyll

SeaWiFS Phytoplankton CarbonModeled Phytoplankton Carbon

Xiu & Chai

JGR,2012

IOPs Comparison (1998-‐2007)SeaWiFS (QAA) aph (443 nm)Modeled aph (440 nm)

SeaWiFS (QAA) acdom+det (412 nm)Modeled acdom+det (410 nm)

SeaWiFS (QAA) bbp (555 nm)Modeled bbp (550 nm)

Xiu & Chai 2012, JGR

January 2015

along ch

annel

12

34

periodic along-

40 km along-channel

80 km cross-channel

Idealized ROMS 3D Channel Geometry and

Configuration

Example simulations for an idealized upwelling-

downwelling

CoSiNE-‐Op?cs-‐EcoLight

ROMS-‐CoSiNE

Op?cal Module

Chl, CDOM,detritus

Kpar

Inherent Op?cal Proper?es (IOPs)

Satellite data QAA, GSM….

IOPs Comparison

Seawater op?cal proper?es

Photo-‐Acclima?on

Carbon Nitrogen

Chlorophyll

ComparisonBiological

Radia?ve Transfer Model (EcoLight)

PAR (400 nm to 700 nm) Short Wave Radia?on (400 to 1000)

Hydrodynamics, thermodynamics, and biology are fully coupled via EcoLight, RTE solu<on from 400-‐1000 nm

Thermodynamics with Paulson & Simpson short wave radia?on model. Biology with analy?c PAR(z) light model. There is no feedback from biology to physics

Original ROMS-‐CoSiNE Model New ROMS-‐CoSiNE-‐EcoLight Model

Coupling Hydrodynamics, Biology, and Op8cs

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Pacific Ocean ROMS-CoSiNE Modeling (12-km) Incorporating optics into ROMS-CoSiNE-EcoLight

Future predications for CCS based on GFDL/ESM-ROMS-CoSiNE

Future changes of nutrient dynamics and biological productivity in California Current System

Fei Chai, Peng Xiu, Enrique Curchitser

1860 - 1900

2081 - 2120

Difference

Temperature (0-200m) NO3 (0-200m) Primary Production

Rykaczewski and Dunne, GRL, 2010

GFDL-ESM to ROMS-CoSiNE

Courtesy of Enrique Curchitser

One-way downscaling

For this talk:

Comparing two periods (20 years) Forced with RCP 8.5 from GFDL-‐ESM2M

1990-‐2009 VS. 2030-‐2049

Difference = AVG(2030~2049) – AVG(1990~2009 )

Temperature Comparison in CCS

Comparison of Temperature and Stratification Difference = (2030-‐2049) -‐ (1990-‐2009)

SST Increase Stratification (N2)Enhanced

Comparison of Nutrients and Primary Production Difference = (2030-‐2049) -‐ (1990-‐2009)

NO3Increase

warm colors

SiO4Increase

morewarm colors

DecreaseDecrease

warmingmore

SST Increase

Primary Production

Increase

Decrease

Comparison of Nutricline Depth (NO3 and SiO4) Difference = (2030-‐2049) -‐ (1990-‐2009)

NO3 Nutricline SiO4 Nutricline

Nutricline become shallower in most areas, more so for silicate than nitrate

Offshore region in the north, nutricline deepens

Plankton Biomass Comparions: (2030-‐49) -‐ (1990-‐09)

Small Phyto. Diatoms

Microzoo MesozooMesozoo increase more

near -‐shore

Change in opposite direction

Microzoo increase more

off-‐shore

positive

Along shore wind

1990-‐09

Wind stress curl

1990-‐09

DIFF = (2039-‐49)-‐ (1990-‐09)

DIFF = (2039-‐49)-‐ (1990-‐09)

Increase near coast

more upwelling

Decrease offshore less

upwelling

Increase near coast

more upwelling

Future climate change impact on upwelling systems

Bakun et al. 2015

Bakun Hypothesis

Poleward migration of pressure systems

Enhancement of land-‐ocean

thermal contrast along the coast

% = [AVG(2030-‐49) – AVG(1990-‐09 )] /AVG(1990-‐09 )

Vertical Nutrient Flux Calculations

change (%) W NO3 SIO4

100 m 5.6% 9.9% 24%

200 m 21.3% 5.7% 18.8%

300 m -‐4.0% 2.9% 14.8%

Changes of Vertical Velocity (W) and NO3 and SiO4 in region 2 and 3, during April-‐July

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Annual Mean NO3 Flux (0-‐200m) (kmol/s)

2.95

2.33 1.472.00

1.360.92

1990-‐2009

-‐0.01 0.30

Upwelling

0.250.26

Mixing

Net NO3 to Region 2 & 3:

Difference = 1 (4.14 -‐ 3.13)

Rykaczewski and Dunne GRL, 2010

2030-‐2049

Increasing EKE in the central offshore potentially enhancing upper water nutrients

Eddy Kinetic Energy (EKE) Difference = (2030-‐49) -‐ (1990-‐09)

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Summary for future predications of CCS

• One-‐way downscaling higher resolution coastal model yield more information for regional difference

• In the central and southern coast, increase wind and wind stress curl lead to stronger upwelling; upwelled nutrients also increased due to warming and stratification in the open ocean which transport to the CCS

• Primary production increase due to more nutrients to CCS, diatoms and meso-‐zooplankton increase more near shore

• Increased eddy activity offshore along with decreased wind stress curl enhance nutrient supply to the upper ocean

• For the northern CCS, changing in wind stress curl lead to more downwelling, which leads to decrease of nutrient

fei chai, peng xiu, enrique curchitser pacific ocean roms ... · fei chai, peng xiu, enrique...

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