feeling lucky? - responsible gambling council
TRANSCRIPT
♦ LUCK = CHANCE
♦ LUCKY EVENTS ARE INDEPENDENT OF ONE ANOTHER♦ past luck does not predict future events
♦ VARIABLE, UNPREDICTABLE, AND UNCONTROLLABLE PROPERTY OF THE WORLD
Rational Definition of Luck
♦ "The luck factor: Why some people are luckier than others and how you can become one of them" (Gunther):
♦My friends call me lucky, and it's true: I am. But I believe I'm lucky not just because I'm lucky, but partly because I know how to be.“
♦ "[Y]ou will discover ... that your luck is not as wild a thing as you may have supposed. Within limits, but in a perfectly real way, it can be influenced. Sense can be made of it."
Lay Beliefs About Luck
♦ Lucky streaks♦ Self‐perpetuating view of luck
♦Win‐Win‐Win Win
♦Gambler’s fallacy♦ Self‐correcting view of luck
♦ Win‐Win‐Win Loss
Behaviour of Gamblers
♦ Believers♦ good luck is a personal
quality♦ somewhat stable
♦Nonbelievers♦ luck is random,
unreliable ♦ luck = chance
Constructing The Belief in Good Luck Scale (BIGL)(Darke & Freedman 1997a)
Rated from strongly disagree (1) to strongly agree (6)
♦ Similar across wide range of (nonclinical) samples♦ including university educated respondents
♦ Stable over time♦ r = .63 over 1‐2 month period (retest reliability)
♦ Commonly held♦ When asked to make an overall evaluation of personal luck:
♦45‐50% say lucky♦40‐45% say neither lucky nor unlucky♦ 5‐10% say unlucky
♦ Personal good and bad luck beliefs are unrelated ♦ personal bad luck not opposite of personal good luck
♦ Good luck is distinct from good fortune or general optimism
General Characteristics of Belief in Good Luck
♦ Rational Expectations Model
♦ If past success is due to:
♦ internal/stable causes = positive expectations for future performance♦ external/unstable causes = no clear expectations
♦ Our prediction:
♦ Believers should respond to initial good luck with positive expectations for future outcomes
Experiments Concerning Reactions to Lucky Events(Darke & Freedman 1997b)
Stable Unstable
Internal (personal quality)
Ability Effort
External Difficulty Luck
♦ Control Condition:♦ given $5 to make bets
♦ Initial Good‐Luck Condition(s):♦ bet with points or money?♦ 10% chance for $$$ (High‐Initial‐Luck conditions)♦ (fixed) lottery procedure always assigned Ss to $$$
♦ Visual perception task: ♦ decide which symbol in stimulus field is most numerous♦ rate confidence and bet on each decision (dvs)
Reactions to Initial Good Luck
1111OO1OO111OO1OO1OO11OO11O11OOOOOO11O11OO1OO111OOO1OO1111OOO111O11OOOO11O1111OO111OO11OOOO1111O1111OOOO1111OOOO1111OOOO1111OOOO11OOO1111O1OOO11OOO111OO111OO1OOO111OOOO1OO111OO1OO111OO1111OOO1111O111OO11O1OOO1OO111OO1O1O11OO11OOOO1111OOOO11O11OOO11OO11OO1111OO1OOOO1OO11OO1111OOOO111111OO11OO1111OOOO1111OOOO1111OOOO11111111OO1OO111OOOO11O11OOO111O1OOOOO11OO11OOO1O11O1OO11O11OO1OO111
Example Stimulus in Perception Task
Results (N = 103)
19.25
27.728.82
17.52
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Control Good Luck
Mea
n Ce
nts Bet (1 ‐50
)
Believers
NonBelievers
p < .001
♦ Control Condition:♦ bet with points and no mention of $$$
♦ Initial Bad‐Luck Condition:♦ bet with points or money?♦ 80% chance to bet with $$$, but 20% bet with points♦ (fixed) lottery procedure always assigned Ss to points
♦ Visual perception task ♦ bet points on each decision (dv)
Reactions to Initial Bad Luck
135
156
159
142
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
165
Control Bad Luck
Total P
oint
s Bet
Believers
Nonbelievers
Results (N=80)
p < .05
♦ Cultural differences in BIGL♦ More common among Asian than Nonasian groups
♦ Beliefs in personal luck can be evoked simply using lucky numbers (DeMarree et al. 2005; Jiang et al. 2009; Kramer & Block, 2008)♦ 7 vs. 13 in NA♦ 8 vs. 4 in Asia
♦ Personal luck more likely to operate when uncertainty is high (Kramer & Block, 2008)♦ e.g., more for low probability wagers than high
♦ Luck can operate with or without awareness (Kramer & Block, 2008)
♦ Other betting patterns♦ Avoiding big gambling losses also leads to feelings of good luck and increased
betting (Wohl & Enzle, 2003)♦ Believers follow choices made by other lucky gamblers (Wohl & Enzle, 2009)
Other Research On Beliefs in Luck
♦ Problem gamblers have increased desire to continue gambling on slots after an initial large win (Young et al., 2008). A series of smaller wins had no such effect.
♦ BIGL associated with increased wagering in roulette (Wohl & Enzle, 2003).
♦ BIGL is more strongly associated with games that involve some skill (poker) than games of pure chance (slot machines; Wohl et al., 2005).
♦ Higher BIGL leads to more negative attitudes towards treatment seeking for problem gamblers (Wohl et al., 2005).
Relation of Belief in Luck to Gambling
♦ Evidence BIGL is implicated in problem gambling♦ Irrational beliefs in good luck are common even in
nonclinical and highly educated populations♦ Problematic in that good luck, bad luck and even
avoiding bad luck leads to increased betting♦ Gambling contexts like casinos are likely to evoke
personal beliefs in good luck given abundance of good luck symbols (priming)
♦Making Cs aware of the problem is unlikely to lead to effective self‐regulation
Some Implications
♦ Positive Illusion (Taylor & Brown 1988)♦ Subtle illusions help cope with uncertainty in everyday life♦ BIGL provides feeling of control in absence of real control♦Most people believe in good personal luck but not bad♦ Believers feel they will win whether they experience initial
good or bad luck♦ BIGL effects exaggerated when threat or uncertainty is
high♦ BIGL associated with positive psychological well‐being
♦ lower depression and anxiety (Day & Maltby, 2003)
Why Do People Believe in Good Luck?