feeding the world: smallholders and livestock
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Presented by Iain Wright at the Workshop on Innovation Laboratory on Livestock and Climate Change, World Bank, Washington, 29 May 2014TRANSCRIPT
Feeding the World: Smallholders and Livestock
Iain Wright
Innovation Laboratory on Livestock and Climate Change World Bank, Washington, 29 May 2014
OUTLINE
The global challenge for agricultureLivestock dimensionsRole of smallholdersLivestock challenges and opportunitiesA bit about ILRI
THE GLOBAL CHALLENGE
How the world would feed itself sustainably by the time population stabilizes?
60% more food than is produced now 75% of this must come from productivity
increase While also reducing poverty Taking care of natural resources Coping with climate change
The global livestock sector
Total animals:17 billion
Asset value:$1.4 trillion
Employs:1.3 billion people
Uses:1/3 of the earth’sice-free surface
4
Four of the five highest value globalagricultural commodities are livestock products
5Source: FAOSTAT, 2010 data
Four out of the ten highest value African commodities are livestock
6Source: FAOSTAT, 2010 data
Livestock contribution to GDP
• Livestock accounts for 35-40% of Ag GDP in developing countries
• Attracts 5-10% of investment
• Growing at 2.5-6.0%
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Mill
ion
tons
Developing
Developed
Where is the growth?Gains in meat consumption in developing countries
is outpacing that of developed countries and this is expected to continue
Growing Incomes are a key catalyst to demand growth for livestock products
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000
Per
cap
ita m
eat
co
nsu
mp
ion
(kg
/year)
Per capita GDP (US$ PPP)
US
Japan
Chi
Ind
Bra
Percentage increase in demandfor livestock products
Developing Countries Developed Countries0
20
40
60
80
100
120
MeatMilkEggs
2000 to 2040
IFPRI-ILRI IMPACT model results
Far higher growth in demand will occur in developing countries
0
5
10
15
20
90 95 2000 2004 2005 2008 2009
Milli
on to
nnes
Beef Pork Poultry Meat Ovine
Trade matters - but local markets matter more
The value of meat
trade is estimated over $100 billion in 2011, approximately 10 percent of agricultural trade.
However, trade of meat accounts for only 10 percent of consumption
Food production: From where?
Herrero et al. 2009
Livestock for livelihoods -developing world 70% of the world’s rural poor rely on livestock for
important parts of their livelihoods.
Of the 1 billion poor livestock keepers in the world, around two-thirds are rural women.
More than half of livestock products are produced by small holders –and growing
Farm sizes will continue to decline in Africa
Up to 40% of benefits from livestock keeping come from non-market, intangible benefits, mostly insurance and financing.
Animal source foods are important for nutritional security
Livestock keepers in developing countries
Density of poor livestock keepers
One billion people earning <$2 a day depend on livestock600 million in south Asia300 million in sub Saharan Africa
ILRI, 2012
0 or no data
Livestock opportunities and challenges
Feeding the World• Livestock provide 58 million tonnes of protein annually and 17% of the
global kilocalories. Removing poverty
• Almost 1 billion people rely on livestock for livelihoods Managing the environment
• Livestock contribute 14 -18% anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions; use 30% of the freshwater used for agriculture and 30% of the ice free land
Improving human health• Zoonoses and contaminated animal source foods• Malnutrition and obesity
Livestock non-tradables make large contributions to the rural poor• Manure, Energy (traction, fuel), cultural 15
To eat meat or not to eat . . .
One billion hungry Two billion overweight
Source: (Steinfeld et al. 2006)
Large productivity gaps between richand poor countries are not closing
Some developing country regions have gaps of up to 430% in milk
Africa Latin America South Asia Industrialized Countries
4111021
517
4226
397
1380904
6350
Milk (kg/cow/yr)
1980 2005
Addressing GHG inefficiencies in the developing world is an opportunity
Herrero et al PNAS
GHG per kg of animal protein produced
19
Increasing productivity reduces GHC emissions
Growth scenarios for livestock systems ‘Strong growth’
– Where good market access andincreasing productivity provide opportunities for continued smallholder participation.
‘Fragile growth’– Where remoteness, marginal land
resources or agro-climatic vulnerability restrict intensification.
‘High growth with externalities’– Fast changing livestock systems
potentially damaging the environment and human health
Different research and development challenges for poverty, food security, health and nutrition, environment
ILRI and CGIAR research programs
Dryland CerealsGrain Legumes
Livestock and FishMaizeRice
Roots, Tubers and BananasWheat
Climate Change, Agriculture and Food SecurityForests, Trees and Agroforestry
Water, Land and Ecosystems
Integrated Systems for the Humid TropicsAquatic Agricultural Systems
Dryland Systems
Policies, Institutions, and MarketsAgriculture for Nutrition and Health
ILRI Resources
• Staff: 700.
• Budget: $83 million.
• 30+ scientific disciplines.
• 140 senior scientists from 39 countries.
• 56% of internationally recruited
staff are from 22 developing countries.
• 34% of internationally recruited staff
are women.
• Large campuses in Kenya and Ethiopia.
• 70% of research in sub-Saharan Africa.
ILRI’s research teams
23
Integrated sciences Biosciences
Animal science for sustainable productivity
BecA-ILRI hub
Food safety and zoonoses Vaccine platform
Livestock systems and the environment
Animal bioscience
Livelihoods, gender and impact Feed and forage bioscience
Policy, trade, value chains Bioscience facilities
The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI.
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