federal reserve banks' - small business credit survey · 2019-11-12 · federal reserve...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Federal Reserve Banks' - Small Business Credit Survey · 2019-11-12 · FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS’ SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY, 2018 Key Findings Claire Kramer Mills, PhD AVP, Outreach](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070815/5f0eeef57e708231d441a7d5/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS’
SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY, 2018Key Findings
Claire Kramer Mills, PhD
AVP, Outreach & Education
November 12, 2019
![Page 2: Federal Reserve Banks' - Small Business Credit Survey · 2019-11-12 · FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS’ SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY, 2018 Key Findings Claire Kramer Mills, PhD AVP, Outreach](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070815/5f0eeef57e708231d441a7d5/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
2
Agenda
Overview of Small Business Credit Survey
Key takeaways
▫ Small business optimism is near a 15-year high.
▫ Demand is strong for small dollar (under $1M) financing, yet small dollar
loans have grown sluggishly.
▫ Key small business segments have difficulty securing bank financing and
are turning to online sources of credit.
Partnerships and future work
![Page 3: Federal Reserve Banks' - Small Business Credit Survey · 2019-11-12 · FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS’ SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY, 2018 Key Findings Claire Kramer Mills, PhD AVP, Outreach](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070815/5f0eeef57e708231d441a7d5/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
3
Small Business Credit Survey overview
National network of
300 partnersSurvey length
10-12 minsResponses from
50 statesThe respondents
6,000 employer firms
6,000 nonemployer firms
Includes information about:
– Minority-owned businesses
– Women-owned businesses
– Veteran-owned businesses
– 50+ entrepreneurs
– Micro businesses
![Page 4: Federal Reserve Banks' - Small Business Credit Survey · 2019-11-12 · FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS’ SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY, 2018 Key Findings Claire Kramer Mills, PhD AVP, Outreach](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070815/5f0eeef57e708231d441a7d5/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
4
Source: Wells Fargo/Gallup Small Business Index, National Federation of Independent Businesses
Note: Wells Fargo data are quarterly; not seasonally adjusted. NFIB data are not seasonally adjusted.
Small business optimism has rebounded
Small business optimism
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Wells Fargo Optimism Index NFIB Optimism Index (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
NF
IB o
ptim
ism
ind
ex
We
lls F
arg
o o
ptim
ism
in
de
x
![Page 5: Federal Reserve Banks' - Small Business Credit Survey · 2019-11-12 · FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS’ SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY, 2018 Key Findings Claire Kramer Mills, PhD AVP, Outreach](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070815/5f0eeef57e708231d441a7d5/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
5Source: FFIEC Quarterly Banking Profile; Does not include institutions exempt from CRA reporting
Small dollar lending has remained flat
Outstanding balances on loans to businesses
Bill
ions o
f $
$400
$800
$1,200
$1,600
$2,000
$2,400
$2,800
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Small loans to businesses Large loans to businesses
![Page 6: Federal Reserve Banks' - Small Business Credit Survey · 2019-11-12 · FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS’ SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY, 2018 Key Findings Claire Kramer Mills, PhD AVP, Outreach](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070815/5f0eeef57e708231d441a7d5/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
6
KEY FINDING: Half of small businesses met their
funding needs, but this varies across segments
Source: 2018 Small Business Credit Survey
51%
50%
48%
43%
31%
28%
Non-Hispanic white-owned
Men-owned
All firms
Women-owned
Hispanic-owned
Non-Hispanic Black or African American-owned
Proportion of small business owners with funding needs met(% of employer firms)
![Page 7: Federal Reserve Banks' - Small Business Credit Survey · 2019-11-12 · FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS’ SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY, 2018 Key Findings Claire Kramer Mills, PhD AVP, Outreach](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070815/5f0eeef57e708231d441a7d5/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
7
KEY FINDING: Credit is the most common form of financing regularly
used by small firms. In contrast, 7% use equity investments
Type of financing regularly used(% of employer firms)
Source: 2018 Small Business Credit Survey
55%52%
13%
9%7% 6%
3%
20%
All small employer firms
Loan or line of credit Credit card Trade Leasing Equity Cash advance Factoring Does not use external financing
7% of firms use equity
investments for financing their
business.
![Page 8: Federal Reserve Banks' - Small Business Credit Survey · 2019-11-12 · FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS’ SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY, 2018 Key Findings Claire Kramer Mills, PhD AVP, Outreach](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070815/5f0eeef57e708231d441a7d5/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8
KEY FINDING: Small firms have small dollar needs.
71% sought $100K or less in funding
Total amount of financing sought by revenue size of firm(% of applicants)
Source: 2018 Small Business Credit Survey
27%
5%
44%
24%
17%
24%
10%
28%
3%
18%
≤ $1M Revenue firms >$1M Revenue firms
$25K or less $25K-$100K $100K-$250K $250K-$1M More than $1M
![Page 9: Federal Reserve Banks' - Small Business Credit Survey · 2019-11-12 · FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS’ SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY, 2018 Key Findings Claire Kramer Mills, PhD AVP, Outreach](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070815/5f0eeef57e708231d441a7d5/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
9
KEY FINDING: Firms seeking $100K or less applied
to online providers at equal rates to banks
Credit sources applied to by amount of credit sought(% of loan/line of credit and cash advance applicants)
Source: 2018 Small Business Credit Survey
42%
55%
61%
38%
45%
56%
39%
30%
18%
6% 6%4%
10%7%
10%
Sought $100K or less Sought $100,001–$250K Sought More than $250K
Large bank Small bank Online lender CDFI Credit union
![Page 10: Federal Reserve Banks' - Small Business Credit Survey · 2019-11-12 · FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS’ SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY, 2018 Key Findings Claire Kramer Mills, PhD AVP, Outreach](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070815/5f0eeef57e708231d441a7d5/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
10
KEY FINDING: Medium- and high-risk borrowers applied
to online lenders at higher rates than to banks
Source: 2018 Small Business Credit Survey
51%48%
19%
4%
9%
50%
41%
54%
6%
12%
Large bank Small bank Online lender CDFI Credit union
Low credit risk Medium/high credit risk
Credit sources applied to by credit risk of firm(% of loan/line of credit and cash advance applicants)
![Page 11: Federal Reserve Banks' - Small Business Credit Survey · 2019-11-12 · FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS’ SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY, 2018 Key Findings Claire Kramer Mills, PhD AVP, Outreach](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070815/5f0eeef57e708231d441a7d5/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
11
KEY FINDING: The chance of being funded is a larger
factor than cost in where firms apply for financing
Source: 2018 Small Business Credit Survey
Top factors influencing where firms apply(% of loan/line of credit and cash advance applicants)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Large bank Small bank Online lender CDFI Credit union
Chance of being funded
Cost or interest rate
Speed of decision orfunding
Recommendation orreferral
![Page 12: Federal Reserve Banks' - Small Business Credit Survey · 2019-11-12 · FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS’ SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY, 2018 Key Findings Claire Kramer Mills, PhD AVP, Outreach](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070815/5f0eeef57e708231d441a7d5/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
12
KEY FINDING: Segments of small business borrowers
differ notably in where they apply for financing
Credit sources applied to by type of firm(% of loan/line of credit and cash advance applicants)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Large bank Small bank Online lender CDFI Credit union
All small employer firms
Women-owned
Hispanic-owned
Non-Hispanic AfricanAmerican-owned
Source: 2018 Small Business Credit Survey
![Page 13: Federal Reserve Banks' - Small Business Credit Survey · 2019-11-12 · FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS’ SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY, 2018 Key Findings Claire Kramer Mills, PhD AVP, Outreach](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070815/5f0eeef57e708231d441a7d5/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
13
Intelligence on key segments of small business
www.fedsmallbusiness.org
![Page 14: Federal Reserve Banks' - Small Business Credit Survey · 2019-11-12 · FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS’ SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY, 2018 Key Findings Claire Kramer Mills, PhD AVP, Outreach](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070815/5f0eeef57e708231d441a7d5/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
14
Methodology
Statistics on economic importance of small business
Additional findings from Small Business Credit Survey
Appendix
![Page 15: Federal Reserve Banks' - Small Business Credit Survey · 2019-11-12 · FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS’ SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY, 2018 Key Findings Claire Kramer Mills, PhD AVP, Outreach](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070815/5f0eeef57e708231d441a7d5/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
15
Methodology
Convenience sample, conducted online
• Distributed through 300+ community and business organizations
• Collaboration with NORC at the University of Chicago
• Control for representativeness by weighting the sample data with U.S. Census data
Weighting characteristics: firm age, number of employees, geography, industry, race, ethnicity,
and gender.
20%
51%
26%
4%
$100K or less $100K-$1M $1M-$10M More than $10M
Revenue Size of Firm(% of employer firms)
N=6,37655%
18%13%
9%5%
1-4 employees 5-9 employees 10-19 employees 20-49 employees 50-499 employees
Number of Employees(% of employer firms)
N=6,614
![Page 16: Federal Reserve Banks' - Small Business Credit Survey · 2019-11-12 · FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS’ SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY, 2018 Key Findings Claire Kramer Mills, PhD AVP, Outreach](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070815/5f0eeef57e708231d441a7d5/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
16
US Census Bureau, Statistics of US Businesses, 2016
Association for Enterprise Opportunity, The Big Picture: A Larger View of the Small Business Market
Large community impact
in low income areas
43%
57%
Location of U.S. small businesses
$1.87 trillion in annual
revenues
Middle- or upper-
income zip
Lower-income zip
Why small business?
Generate 2 of 3 net
new jobs in the U.S.
![Page 17: Federal Reserve Banks' - Small Business Credit Survey · 2019-11-12 · FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS’ SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY, 2018 Key Findings Claire Kramer Mills, PhD AVP, Outreach](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070815/5f0eeef57e708231d441a7d5/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
17Source: 2018 Small Business Credit Survey
36%
33%35% 35%
23%
44%
32%34% 34%
25%
39%
31% 32%
37%
22%
33%
37%
40%
11%
23%
Low credit score Insufficient credit history Insufficient collateral Too much debt already Weak business performance
All Firms Black or African-American Women-owned Hispanic
Credit Challenges
Credit challenges by type of firm(% of applicants not approved for at least some of the financing sought)
![Page 18: Federal Reserve Banks' - Small Business Credit Survey · 2019-11-12 · FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS’ SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY, 2018 Key Findings Claire Kramer Mills, PhD AVP, Outreach](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070815/5f0eeef57e708231d441a7d5/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
18
Credit Application Sources
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2016 (N=3,771) 2017 (N=2,818) 2018 (N=2,379)
Pe
rce
nt
of
Ap
plic
ants
Credit Sources Applied To% of applicants
Large Bank
Small Bank
Online Lender
Credit Union
CDFI
Source: 2018 Small Business Credit Survey
![Page 19: Federal Reserve Banks' - Small Business Credit Survey · 2019-11-12 · FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS’ SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY, 2018 Key Findings Claire Kramer Mills, PhD AVP, Outreach](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070815/5f0eeef57e708231d441a7d5/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
19
Lender Approval Rates
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
2016 2017 2018
Approval Rate By Lender(% of applicants approved for partial or full credit)
Online Lender (N=517-672) Small Bank (N=1,034-1,781) Large Bank (N=1,103-1,837)
Source: 2018 Small Business Credit Survey
![Page 20: Federal Reserve Banks' - Small Business Credit Survey · 2019-11-12 · FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS’ SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY, 2018 Key Findings Claire Kramer Mills, PhD AVP, Outreach](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070815/5f0eeef57e708231d441a7d5/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
20
Source: 2018 Small Business Credit Survey
Success rates of Borrower Segments by Lender
58%64%
85%
60%
73%
84%
29%
40%
70%
50%
42%
65%
Large bank Small bank Online lender
Success Rate (% of applicants being partly or fully funded)
Women Non-Hispanic White Non-Hispanic Black or African American Hispanic