federal reserve bank of new york regional economic briefing
TRANSCRIPT
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The views expressed here are those of the presenters and do not necessarily represent the
views of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.
Regional Economic Press Briefing
November 29, 2012
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Regional Economic ConditionsJason Bram, Senior Economist
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Overview
Overview of the regional economy before Sandy New York City on a solid growth trajectory New Jersey still sluggish
Long Island & upstate New York flat
Puerto Rico still bottoming out, no signs of recovery yet
Breaking down the costs of Sandy Physical damage (homes, property, infrastructure, etc.) Loss of economic activity (due to power, transportation outages)
Welfare costs (pain & suffering, quality of life, lost leisure time, etc.)
Bottom line Short-run disruptions substantial and widespread across NYC metro region Hard-hit communities, individuals, businesses face long road to recovery
Regional economy overall likely to bounce back quickly
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Regional Economic ActivityIndex of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI)
3Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Puerto Rico Government Development Bank.Note: The Puerto Rico composite index is based on a different methodology than the indexes produced by the FRBNY.
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
Jan07 Jul07 Jan08 Jul08 Jan09 Jul09 Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12
New YorkState
New Jersey
New YorkCity
Puerto Rico
Index (December 2007 = 100)
Shading indicates NBER recession
LastBriefing(April)
May05
Apr08
Apr08
Nov09
Jan08
Oct09
Nov10
Oct
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Total EmploymentSeasonally Adjusted Index
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moodys Economy.com. 4
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
Jan07 Jul07 Jan08 Jul08 Jan09 Jul09 Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12
Shading indicates NBER recession
UnitedStates
New Jersey
Puerto Rico
New YorkState
New YorkCity
Index (December 2007 = 100)
Oct
Last Briefing(April)
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Total EmploymentSeasonally Adjusted Index
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moodys Economy.com. 5
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
Jan07 Jul07 Jan08 Jul08 Jan09 Jul09 Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12
Shading indicates NBER recession
UnitedStates
New YorkCity
LongIsland
Upstate NY
Index (December 2007 = 100)
Oct
Last Briefing(April)
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Regional Unemployment RatesSeasonally Adjusted Rates
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moodys Economy.com. 6
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
Jan07 Jul07 Jan08 Jul08 Jan09 Jul09 Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12
Shading indicates NBER recession
UnitedStates
New York State
NewJersey
New YorkCity
LastBriefing(April)
9.7%
9.3%
7.9%Oct
8.7%
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Assessing theAftermath of Sandy
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Scope of Physical Damage
Residential real estate & property: Largely in flood-prone areas
Scattered wind-related damage across the region
Commercial real estate & property: Flooding of office buildings (NYC) and retailers along coastlines
Damaged or destroyed equipment (e.g., computers, vehicles)
Infrastructure: Mass Transit: subways, PATH, NJ Transit Rail, LIRR,
Metro North, Amtrak
Power Infrastructure: power lines, transformers & other equipment
Other Public Infrastructure: roads, bridges, tunnels, water & sewersystems, beaches, boardwalks, airports, seaport, schools,hospitals, etc.
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Impact on Economic Activity
Short-term effects: + Pre-storm increase in activity: consumers stocking up
- Disruptions: transportation, power, water, schools, etc.
+ Offsets to activity decline: postponed or shifted within region
+ Recovery of activity: rebuilding, repair, replacement
Each full-day equivalent of lost regional output $3.8 billion Represents roughly 1.1% of quarterly regional GDP
Knocks roughly 0.4% off quarterly U.S. GDP growth (annual rate)
Long-term effects: Research suggests little long-run effect on GDP
However, local consequences (population and activity relocations)may be persistent
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Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Headline index little changed in November; employment index down Roughly 70% of respondent pool is in upstate NY
Response patterns were not much different for upstate vs. downstate firms
Supplemental questions on Sandy: major disruptions todownstate NY firms
Most upstate manufacturers saw no reduction in business activity Every downstate respondent reported some reduction in activity
Over 90% of downstate firms shut down or severely crippled for at least a day
40% reported shut down or severely crippled for at least 5 days
Biggest contributing factors to reduced business
Downstate: Loss of power, loss of communications, workers unable to get inUpstate: Customers affected, supply chain disruptions
Making up for lost output is harder for service firms thanfor manufacturers
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Weekly Initial Jobless ClaimsSeasonally Adjusted
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Haver Analytics.
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Jan10 Apr10 Jul10 Oct10 Jan11 Apr11 Jul11 Oct11 Jan12 Apr12 Jul12 Oct12
Nov 10
New YorkState
New Jersey
11
+28,000
+45,000
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Employment TrendsBefore and After Previous Disasters
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moodys Economy.com.
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
QuartersBeforeDisaster
Hurricane KatrinaNew Orleans Metro Area
Northridge Earthquake
Los Angeles County
Hurricane AndrewMiami-Dade County
9-11 AttacksNew York City
Index (Disaster Date = 100)
New York Cityemployment back in
line with existing trend
QuartersAfter
Disaster
12
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Wage and Salary Income TrendsBefore and After Previous Disasters
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW) and Moodys Economy.com.Note: Income data was smoothed using a four-quarter moving average.
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Hurricane KatrinaNew Orleans Metro Area
Northridge EarthquakeLos Angeles County
Hurricane Andrew
Miami-Dade County
9-11 AttacksNew York City
QuartersBefore
Disaster
QuartersAfter
Disaster
Index (Disaster Date = 100)
13
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Welfare Costs
Impact on quality of life often not included in loss estimates
Loss of life
Pain & suffering, quality of life, lost leisure time, etc. Grief and stress associated with loss of homes, personal valuables
Days/weeks spent without power, heat, water School children relocated to other schools
Additional time spent commuting, traveling
Often difficult to quantifytotal cost likely in the billions
Examples:3 million commuters x 10 extra hours x $20/hour = $600 M3 million homes without power x $500 value to avoid power loss = $1.5 BWaiting in gas lines, inability to communicate, etc.
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Impacts of Hurricane Sandyon Schools and Students
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New York City SchoolsPublic School Closures: Nov. 5
Nov 5
ClosedReopened All public schools
closed first week,most reopened onNov. 5
87 still closed asof Nov. 5
16Source: New York City Department of Education
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New York City SchoolsPublic School Relocated and Reopened: Nov. 8
Nov 8
ClosedReopenedRelocated
44 schools still displacedas of Nov. 8; studentsre-located to otherschools
23 schools stilldisplaced as ofNov. 16
17Source: New York City Department of Education
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New York City SchoolsPublic School Attendance: Nov 8
Nov 8
0% to 35%35% to 70%70% to 85%86% to 100%
18Source: New York City Department of Education
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School Closures Outside NYC
New Jersey: Roughly 60% of 2,400 schools still closedon November 7 700 still without power on November 7
NJ relatively slow in coming back18% still closed on November 9
Long Island: Most schools closed for full week, and morethan 100 schools require repairs due to Sandy damage
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Potential Educational Impacts
Research shows loss of school days leads to adverse effectson student learning Of particular importance, an agreement allows students to make up
three and a half days of lost time
Psychological effects
Relocations of families disrupt education
Closed schools can substantially disrupt parents work and
other schedules
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Summary
Breaking down the costs of Sandy Physical damage (homes, property, infrastructure, etc.)
Loss of economic activity (due to power, transportation outages)
Welfare costs (pain & suffering, quality of life, lost leisure time, etc.)Most schools shut down for days; some for substantially longer
Bottom line Short-run disruptions substantial and widespread across tri-state region Hard-hit communities, individuals, businesses face long road to recovery
Regional economy overall expected to be back on track by early 2013
Looking ahead It takes time, but devastated communities typically recover from disasters How can we mitigate impacts of future disasters?
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Intelligence From the Hardest Hit AreasClaire Kramer, Officer, Regional Outreach
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Overview
Outreach Team Gathers intelligence about emerging local issues, economic problems, and
financial concerns from the ground up
Identifies knowledge gaps for which the FRBNY is uniquely suited to addressand produce actionable analysis
Ongoing relationships with community organizations, business groups, and
government agencies throughout the region
Sandy-Related Conversations Contacted 40+ service organizations operating in the hardest hit areas
of the region
Organizations include local, state, and federal housing and businessagencies; chambers of commerce; and economic development authorities
Focus on small business and housing market conditions
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Small Business Recovery
Access to Credit is Top of Mind
Collateral losses limit ability to obtain loans/lines of credit
High demand for SBA loans at favorable terms
Gap financing needed for short-term cash flow while firms restartoperations and wait for SBA and insurance settlements
Local loan programs filling short-term financing needsup to $25k.Examples include NYC Department of Small Business Services, NYBankers Association and NY Business Development Corp, and Hudson
County Economic Development Corporation
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Small Business Recovery
Insurance Coverage Wont Make Firms Whole
Companies lacked flood insurance
Major storm damage due to salt water
Business disruption insurance policies may not cover damage due towater, wind, or power outages
Many firms hold such policies, especially service industry firms
Demand for adjusters is greater than capacity
Insurance companies have set up mobile claims operations inheavily affected areas
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Small Business Recovery
Business Trade Groups are Engines of Recovery
Businesses located in areas with active business organizations arefaring better than those in areas without such infrastructure
Service organizations in affected areas also sidelined by the stormbut used websites and social media to communicate with memberswhile operations were closed
Self-help cooperatives among business owners have sprung up toshare resources and space
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Small Business Recovery
Business Owners Facing Key Decisions
Investment: Firms on waterfront discussing getting big generatorsystemsbut logistical problems remain (i.e. where to locategenerators). Renters with short-term leases hesitant to take out loansto renovate spaces they may not be able to retain
Relocation: Sandy is prompting relocation discussions. New Jerseyor upstate New York where (higher ground) land is cheaper are inconsideration, especially for waterfront firms
Closing Shop: Business owners close to retirement age areconsidering not reopening at all
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Housing Recovery
Shelter is Top Priority For Federal, State, andLocal Authorities
Estimated 40,000 New York City residents need shelterlikely to below estimate
Housing service providers report that most families who lackedpower, heat, or hot water, but whose homes did not sufferstructural damage, preferred to brave elements
Many public housing tenants refused to evacuate or relocate out offear that a Katrina-like condemnation might take place
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Housing Recovery
Counseling and Service Resources Available
State Housing Task forces formed to identify housing priorities,catalog vacant rental housing units, and investigate temporaryhousing options
Housing counseling and service providers aggressively marketingemergency loan programsexamples are Neighborhood HousingServices of NYC and Asian Americans for Equalityin hard hitneighborhoods
Over longer term, Center for NYC Neighborhoods will deployresources to support housing counseling and legal services forhomeowners filing insurance and FEMA claims and seekingassistance from mortgage providers
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Housing Conditions in the RegionJaison Abel, Senior Economist
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Overview of Regional Housing Conditions
Many of the regions housing markets have begun to recover Home prices reached a bottom in late 2011
Home sales and building activity have stabilized
Signs of housing-related stress have eased somewhat Negative equity share has edged down remains below national levels
Fewer homeowners are becoming delinquent on their mortgages
Challenges remain going forward The hardest hit places in the region continue to struggle
A large and growing backlog of foreclosures exists in the region
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The Geography of the Housing BustChange in Home Prices, March 2006 April 2009
Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales).
Decline more than U.S.
Decline less than U.S.
Increase
32
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Measures of Housing Activity
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Regional Home PricesCoreLogic Single-Family Home Price Index, Seasonally Adjusted
Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales); Aggregation and seasonal adjustment by FRBNY staff .
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Mar06 Sep06 Mar07 Sep07 Mar08 Sep08 Mar09 Sep09 Mar10 Sep10 Mar11 Sep11 Mar12 Sep12
DownstateNY
UpstateNY
UnitedStates
NorthernNJ
Index (U.S. Peak of March 2006 = 100)
Shading indicatesNBER recession Dec11Apr09
Bust Continued Decline Recent
4.1%
2.3%
1.3%
6.2%
Percent ChangeDec11-Sep12
Sep
34
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Home Price Changes in the RegionCoreLogic Single-Family Home Price Index, Dec11 - Sep12
Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales);Seasonal adjustment by FRBNY staff.
0% or Less0% to 3%
3% to 6.2%
6.2% or More
United States = 6.2%
Newark
GlensFalls
ElmiraBinghamton
Fairfield
Edison
Kingston
Buffalo
Rochester Syracuse
Utica
Albany
Ithaca
NYC
35
NYC
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Regional Home SalesIndex of Single-Family Repeat Sales, Four-Quarter Moving Average
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
DownstateNY
UpstateNY
NorthernNJ
UnitedStates
Q2
Index (2006Q1 = 100)
Shading indicatesNBER recession
36Source: CoreLogic.Note: Data trimmed to Q2.
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Regional Home Building ActivityIndex of Total Residential Home Permits, Four-Quarter Moving Average
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Moodys Economy.com. 37
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Indexed to U.S. Peak (2006Q1 = 100)
Dotted line smoothes fluctuationscaused by regulatory change in NYC
Downstate NY
Upstate NY
Northern NJ
United States
Q3
Shading indicatesNBER recession
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Mortgage Originations by Credit ScoreShare of First Mortgages
Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax. 38
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
United States760 or More
NY-NNJ Region760 or More
Shading indicatesNBER recessions
Q3
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Measures of Housing Stress
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25%
8%
20%
65%
32%
47%
51%
Negative EquityShare of Mortgages with Amount Owed Greater Than Home Value
22%
8%
18%
59%
29%
43%
40%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
UnitedStates
NewYork
NewJersey
Nevada California Florida Arizona
2011Q4
2012Q2
40Source: CoreLogic Negative Equity Report (with revised historical data).
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Pipeline of New DelinquenciesShare of Mortgages Entering Severe Delinquency (90+ Days)
Since Previous Month
41
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
0.7%
0.8%
0.9%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: CoreLogic LoanPerformance (LP) and Lender Processing Services Mortgage Performance data (LPS) as of Sep 1, 2012.
Downstate
NY
UpstateNY
UnitedStates
NorthernNJ
Aug
Shading indicatesNBER recession
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Backlog of ForeclosuresShare of Mortgages in Foreclosure
Source: CoreLogic LoanPerformance (LP) and Lender Processing Services Mortgage Performance data (LPS) as of Sep 1, 2012. 42
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
DownstateNY
UpstateNY
UnitedStates
NorthernNJ
Aug
Shading indicatesNBER recession
A N b f D i F l
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Average Number of Days in Foreclosure2010 to 2012Q2
Source: CoreLogic. 43
318
503481
312
236 230
516
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
UnitedStates
NewYork
NewJersey
Nevada California FloridaArizona
Days
Judicial Judicial Judicial
G h f R i l H i S
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Geography of Regional Housing StressPercent of Mortgages in Foreclosure
44Source: CoreLogic LoanPerformance (LP) and Lender Processing ServicesMortgage Performance data (LPS) as of Sep 1, 2012.
5% or Less5% to 7.5%
7.5% to 10%
10% or More
New York
CityNewark
GlensFalls
Elmira Binghamton
Fair-
field
Edison
Kingston
Buffalo
Rochester SyracuseUtica
Albany
Ithaca
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Summary
Like the nation, housing conditions in the region haveshown steady signs of improvement Home prices have generally increased throughout the year
Other measures of housing-related activity have stabilized
Indicators of housing-related stress have eased somewhat
However, many of the hardest hit places in the regioncontinue to struggle
Housing stress is concentrated in northern New Jersey, parts
of the Hudson Valley, and Long Island
Going forward, a large and growing backlog of foreclosurespresents a challenge to broadening and strengthening theregions housing recovery
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Potential Impacts of Sandy
A large number of homes were damaged or destroyed bySandy, particularly along the coasts of NY, NJ, and CT NY: +300,000 (~4% of housing stock)
NJ: +70,000 (~2% of housing stock)
No doubt, rebuilding will be difficult and costly
Research indicates that housing markets impacted bysevere storms see a temporary dip in home prices andsales activity followed by a rebound
If enough homes are destroyed, prices may increase immediately
Longer run questions following Superstorm Sandy: Will demand for coastal properties fall?
Will costs of homeownership increase?FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 46
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Appendix
N Y k Cit S h l
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New York City SchoolsPublic School Reopening
0
23
39 40
59
62 63
0
37
44 43
2825
24
87
27
4 40 0 0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Nov5 Nov7 Nov8 Nov9 Nov13 Nov14 Nov15
Open
Relocated
Closed
48Source: New York City Department of Education
N Y k Cit S h l
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New York City SchoolsPublic School Attendance
Source: New York City Department of Education
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Nov8 Nov9 Nov13 Nov14 Nov15
Relocated Reopened Unaffected Total
49
R t R gi l H P i A i ti
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Recent Regional Home Price AppreciationCoreLogic Single-Family Home Price Index, December-September
Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales); Seasonal adjustment by FRBNY staff.
9.6%9.0%
8.5%
7.9%
6.4%
6.2%
4.9%
4.0%
3.5%
3.3%
2.8%
2.7%
2.7%
2.0%
1.4%
1.2%
1.1%
0.2%
-1.3%
IthacaBinghamton
Glens Falls
Kingston
Elmira
United States
Buffalo
SyracuseGreater NYC
Albany
Rochester
Bridgeport
Utica
Newark
Long Island
Bergen Hudson Passaic
Warren Cnty NJ
Edison
Poughkeepsie
50
Geography of Regional Housing Stress
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Geography of Regional Housing StressPercent of Mortgages Delinquent 90+ Days
51Source: CoreLogic LoanPerformance (LP) and Lender Processing ServicesMortgage Performance data (LPS) as of Sep 1, 2012.
3% or Less3% to 4%
4% to 5%
5% or More
New York
CityNewark
GlensFalls
Elmira Binghamton
Fair-
field
Edison
Kingston
Buffalo
Rochester SyracuseUtica
Albany
Ithaca
Areas Included in Aggregate Regions
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Areas Included in Aggregate RegionsUpstate NY, Downstate NY, and Northern NJ
Downstate NY
Northern NJ
Upstate NY