february 8, 2018 - battle creek unlimited...2/9/2018 1 2018 economic outlook joe sobieralski,...

2/9/2018

1

2018 Economic Outlook

Joe Sobieralski, President & CEOBattle Creek Unlimited

February 8, 2018

Welcome & Thank You Sponsors:

Agenda

• Economic Development, Joe Sobieralski

• Business/Industry, Ted Dearing

• Small Business/Program Services, Kara Beer

• Public Safety, Jim Blocker

• Economist, Jim Robey

• Q & A / Wrap Up, Joe Sobieralski

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2

2017 Year of Progress: BCU New Hires

Robert CorderVice President, Attraction

Adam Reid Manager, Special Projects &

BC CAL KAL Inland Port Dev. Corp.

Shabaka GibsonVice President, Retention &

Workforce

2017 Investments & Jobs

Bowers AluminumInvestment: $19,675,000 (3 Phases)

Jobs: 94 (Phase 1)

One EarthInvestment: $495,000

Jobs: 26

Duncan AviationInvestment: $2,900,000

Jobs: 50

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November 2, 2017Jackpot! KCC gets $2.15M for

Regional Manufacturing Technology Center

December 5, 2017Eight Battle Creek firms receive

$325,000 for worker training from the State of Michigan (STTF)

December 19, 2017Janesville Acoustics

moving 79 jobs to BC?

2017 Announcements

• Bleistahl North America • Coveris• Denso Manufacturing Michigan, Inc.• Duncan Aviation• II Stanley Company Inc.• Post Consumer Brands• Rosler Metal Finishing USA, LLC• TODA America

2018 Investments & Jobs Thus Far

Prairie Farms DairyInvestment: $28,000,000

Jobs: 16

?Project

Coming SoonProject

Coming Soon

?

*FY 2016‐17 $60,434,000/216 jobs *FY 2017‐18 $50,575,000/160 jobs

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2018 Outlook…

?Projects

Coming Soon

• Full project pipeline • $100,000,000 • Hundreds of potential jobs• Could result in additional:

• Indirect jobs • Income tax• Payroll• Economic output

*FY 2016‐17 $60,434,000/216 jobs *FY 2017‐18 $50,575,000/160 jobs

Site Clearing: Shovel Ready Sites

SOLD

$27,500/Acre

$27,500/Acre

Shiga Drive Property Airport Property

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Phase 2…Coming 2018

+ =Bowers Aluminum

Missile Defense

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$700 Billion Dollar Defense Spending Bill

Missile Defense

By RICHARD LARDNER, Associated PressWASHINGTON (AP) —House Republicans and Democrats joined forces Tuesday to decisively approve a defense policy bill that authorizes $700 billion to restock what lawmakers have described as a depleted U.S. military and counter North Korea's advancing nuclear weapons program.

Lawmakers voted 356‐70 to pass the legislation, with 127 Democrats backing the measure. Once the defense bill clears the Senate, which is expected this week, the bill will be sent to President Donald Trump for his signature.

* Decision made by end of March 2018

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Missile Defense ‐ Continued

Construction (Sites 1 and 2)

• 400 – 600 workers onsite for up to 5 years• Approximately $925K/year in potential sales tax revenue

in Kalamazoo and Calhoun Counties (combined)• Total value added in region: >$193M/year• Indirect jobs created: Approx. 2,008

Operation (Sites 1 and 2)

• 650 – 850 workers onsite full‐time• Approximately $1.4M/year sales tax revenue in

Kalamazoo and Calhoun Counties (combined)• Total value added in region: >$29M/year• Indirect jobs created: Approx. 416

Impacts are largely positive for both sites No mitigation proposed

Source: DoD

Other Initiatives ‐ Downtown

• McCamly Plaza Hotel/DoubleTree

• Heritage Tower Development

• Building RFPs

• Attraction of Brewery

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McCamly Plaza Hotel

• BCU and Aries Capital, LLC affiliate finalize deal for Hilton DoubleTree branded hotel ‐January 2018

• Property designation as DoubleTree flag anticipated by end of third quarter of 2018

• 50 apartment units, some furnished as corporate apartments

• $3,500,000 + investment upgrade

Heritage Tower

• Mark Harmsen, MDH Development

• Participation from many organizations:

o W.K. Kellogg Foundation

o City of Battle Creek

o Battle Creek Community Foundation

o Battle Creek Unlimited

o Cereal City Development Corporation / Economic Development Fund

o Michigan Economic Development Corporation

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2018 & Beyond: New Strategies(Working to Develop)

• Energy Storage

• Microgrids

• Internet of Things (IoT)

• Deploy funds to community development

• Assist with workforce recruitment, transportation, and childcare services

New Battle Creek Unlimited Headquarters

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Your BCU Team!Joe Sobieralski

President & CEO

269.441.1671

[email protected]

Robert Corder

Vice President – Attraction

269.441.1679

[email protected]

Shabaka Gibson

Vice President – Retention

269.441.1669

[email protected]

Bridgette Jones

Vice President ‐ Operations

269.441.1670

[email protected]

Joe Sobieralski

President & CEO

269.441.1671

[email protected]

Jennifer Wood

Executive Assistant to the President & CEO

269.441.1677

[email protected]

John Wright

Facilities Coordinator

269.924.5032

[email protected]

Paula Young

Marketing Coordinator

269.441.1667

[email protected]

Matt Preston

Facilities Coordinator Assistant

269.425.6077

[email protected]

Adam Reid

Manager, Special Projects & BC CAL KAL Inland Port Dev. Corp.

269.441.1674

[email protected]

Lori Schroll

Controller

269.441.1661

[email protected]

Brenda Whited

Business Development Manager

269.441.16762

[email protected]

Follow us:

Business and Industry

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Business and IndustryBusiness and Industry

Comprehensive and EquitableEconomic Development ServicesCommunity‐Wide


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SMARTZONEBUSINESS ACCELERATOR

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• McCamly Plaza Hotel (Hilton renovations)• Northside Training System (business startup)• Swe Mandalay (restaurant startup)• Hairshed (building sale and redevelopment)• Jolene Salon and Spa (retention call)• Functional Kids Therapy (retention call)• Matco Tool Distributor (retention call)• Pressure Free Living (retention call)• New Level Sports (property acquisition)• WJ Schroer (retention visit)• Hall of Toys (retention visit)• Battle Creek Books (retention visit)• Battle Rock (business incentives)• Ondeyia Morris (retention visit)• Lupita’s Salsa Factory (retention visit)• Water Street Coffee (recruitment call)

• Williams Distributing, (redevelopment project)• RB Christian (Hamblin Street relocation)• Restore (269) (downtown building purchase)• 303 W. Jackson Street (business expansion)• Battle Rock, 50 W. Michigan (business startup)• Bowlero Lanes, (building renovation)• 112 E. Columbia (building addition)• JPG office relocation• Interior Design Studio (business startup)• Torte Taco (retention call/business development)• Fitness/Health Studio (business startup)• Ann Arbor commercial firm (business startup)• Smart Zone Accelerator Program• Collective metrics (contact management system)• 25 Capital Ave SW (adaptive reuse project• Heritage Tower (development loan)

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• McCamly Plaza Hotel (Atrium redevelopment)• Jimmy John’s (site selection assistance)• Biggby Coffee (site selection assistance)• Himnman Company (retention, business development)• Melanie Hall (business startup)• Manar Abbo (site selection)• New Level Sports (youth village development)• Summit Buildings (residential development)• Cavoni’s (restaurant start up)• Timeless Furnishings (retention visit)• Ted Geoff (property sale)• Battle Ground Skate Park (regulatory assistance)• Umami Ramen (business startup)• Schweitzer and Assoc. (property showing)• Victoria Boa Lynn (business startup)• Sherrie Schaizenbaker (business relocation)

• OHM Engineering (office relocation)• Ermisch Travel (retention call)• Suipi Burmese Cuisine (restaurant startup)• My Style Your Style (business development, marketing)• Vania Word (product development)• Battle Creek Books (retention visit)• Big 50’s Firearms (business development)• Nail Salon (business relocation)• Cotton Funeral Home (business startup)• Lake Adventure Outdoors.com (business consultation• Army Surplus/Survivalist Store (marketing assistance)• Lives Vintage Thrift (business relocation, programming)• Pearlman’s Jewelers (retention visit)• Prebish Chiropractic (retention visit)• Plumeria Botanical Boutique (retention visit)• Sprout Urban Farms (programming collaboration)

• Lakeview Card and Gift (regulatory assistance)• Consumers Energy (utility relocation)• SBAT (pilot program implementation)• SBDC (business training)

• Cordel Holmes (business startup)• Tiger Room (business incubator)• Christine Blood (business startup)• Arlene Tannis (retention call) • The Planning Group – (retention call)• Dr. Abby Sirovica (retention call)• Partners Insurance Agency (retention call)• Scene Publications (site selection)• Barry Media (retention call)• Seasonal Grill (recruitment visit)• Jordan Keagle (business startup)• Ragsdale Home Furnishings (property purchase)• Trumaine White (business startup)• U Rent Em Canoe (recruitment visit)• Plaza Corp (site selection)• 17 W. Michigan (parking consolidation)

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Battle Creek Chamber ofCommerce

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Battle Creek Police DepartmentCITY OF BATTLE CREEK CRIME: ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPACTS

NATIONAL CRIME TRENDS 2010 – 2016FRIEDMAN, GRAWERT AND CULLEN, BRENNEN CENTER FOR JUSTICE 2017

America’s crime rate remains at historic lows after peaking most recently in 1991. Before this the highest crime rate was in 1960 and 1980. In the ensuing 25 years, crime has largely fallen steadily, and now is about half what it once was.

While crime peaked nationally in 1991, in the 30 largest cities, the overall crime rate was higher in 1990. Since then, the crime rate in these cities has declined by 63.9 percent.

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Violent Crime: Offenses Known to Law EnforcementCity of Battle Creek, Michigan

Year

ViolentCrime

Murder andNon-negligentManslaughter Rape Robbery

AggravatedAssault

2010 702 5 63 120 514

2016 594 3 83 64 444

%Change -15% -40% 32% -47% -14%

*Data for 2010 and 2016 acquired from published Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) through the FBI https://ucr.fbi.gov

NATIONWIDE TREND:2010: 1,251,248 2016: 1,248,184%CHANGE -0.24%

Total Calls for Service 2017: 67,992

~11.8% P1&P2 Crimes

~18.5% resulted in long-form reports

*The Department of Justice says that in 2016, only 22.9% of victims reported their attacker to the Police. In 2015, the percentage is 32.5%

WHEN:Temporal Trends

Peak Month: July

2017: Part 1 Totals for BCPD

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WHEN:Temporal Trends

Hot Days/Times:

EXAMPLE:2017 PEAK MONTH (JULY) TRENDS

EXAMPLE:2017 PEAK MONTH (JULY) TRENDS

Hot Locations (Part 1 Crimes):

DistrictsE GK

*Hotspots are not in downtown area

WHERE:Spatial Trends

*Part 1 Crimes ~1% of total reported in BCPD service area occurred downtown

*Part 2 Crimes ~2% of total reported in BCPD service area occurred downtown

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STRATEGIESINTELLIGENCE-LEAD POLICING

*Identify & Analyze Trends*Targeted Enforcement

BRIDGING COMMUNICATION GAPS*Right people, right skills, right information, right answer!

RESTORATIVE JUSTICE*Building Community Relationships*Alternative enforcement Methods

(May not lead to jail time)

*Sergeant*Crime Analyst*Detective

*Community Mental Health*MDOC*Code Compliance / Inspections*Juvenile Probation*District Court Probation*Adult Protective Services*CPS*Federal Law Enforcement

WHY?

2017: Approx. 12% of calls for service were categorized as P1 or P2 Crimes

*Many calls for service are associated with social service / community needs

Fusion Center Concept

STRATEGIES

Addressing root causes of issues before children enter the Criminal Justice System

FUSION CENTER

• Children in trauma• Symptoms manifest themselves

through violence, acting out, uncontrollable behavior

• Harmful, long term consequences lead to, poor mental, physical

health- incarceration.

• CAN WE DO BETTER?

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LOOKING FORWARDCYBER THREAT: SERIOUS AND GROWING

*THEY WEAPONIZED PIKACHU! THE POKEMAN MALWARE

*HYPER CONNECTED THROUGH TOT

*2015-”YEAR OF THE BREACH”/2016 “YEAR OF THE EXPLOIT”

*COST OF CYBERCRIME $2 TRILLION BY 2019, A THREEFOLD INCREASE SINCE 2015.

*BEHIND EVERY CYBER THREAT IS A HUMAN-FOR NOW

*PROGRESSIVE CYBER FORENSICS & TRAINING AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, FEDERAL AND STATE PARTNERSHIPS

LOOKING FORWARDNew BCPD Building*Project is on time, on budget

*Late Fall completion date

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W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTEFOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH

Jim Robey, PhD

Director, Regional Economic Planning Services

The W. E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research

February 8, 2018

Economic Conditions:Updates on the National, State, and County

Economies with a Look at 2018

W.E.


W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research

• The Institute is an activity of the W.E. Upjohn Unemployment Trustee Corporation, which was established in 1932 for the purpose of finding ways to alleviate the hardship of unemployment.

• MISSION:

– The W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research is a private, nonprofit, nonpartisan, independent research organization devoted to investigating the causes and effects of unemployment, to identifying feasible methods of insuring against unemployment, and to devising ways and means of alleviating the distress and hardship caused by unemployment.

• Today, the Institute has a three‐pronged mission

– Research the causes and consequences of unemployment and evaluate public employment programs and social safety nets

– Administer all federal and state reemployment and training programs in our four‐county area (Michigan Works!)

– Disseminate our research findings and information on best practices

48

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W.E.


What drives our outlook today?

• National trends

• State trends

• Local trends

–Labor markets

–Industry forecasts

–Real estate markets

–Industry outlooks

49

W.E.


The next recession, is time on our side?

2007‐Present (121 Months)

2001‐2007

1991–2000

1981‐1990

1960‐1969

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

Employment Index From Business Cycle Peak

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Survey

Month of Business Cycle Peak = 100

50

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W.E.


Is there a new norm?

‐2,500

‐2,000

‐1,500

‐1,000

‐500

0

500

1,000

1,500

‐10

‐8

‐6

‐4

‐2

0

2

4

6

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Employm

ent Change (000s)

GDP Change (%)

Gross Domestic Product and Employment Change

GDP Change (L) Employment Change (R)

Forecast

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Survey, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Consensus Forecast

Employment change is tapering off slightly

51

W.E.


National University of Michigan RSQE Forecast

20172018

(Forecast)2019

(Forecast)

GDP(Percent)

2.2 2.5 2.1

Employment (Percent) 4.4 4.2 4.1

Light Vehicle Sales ($Millions)

$17.1 $17.1 $17.0

Unemployment Rate(Percent)

4.4 4.2 4.1

Housing Starts (Millions) 1.2 1.3 1.3

CPI/Inflation(Percent)

2.1 1.6 1.8

52

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W.E.


High consumer confidence and lower debt growth

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

‐20

‐10

0

10

20

30

40

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Index: 1995 = 100

Billions ($)

Consumer Confidence and Change in Consumer Debt

Consumer Debt (L) Consumer Confidence (R)

Source: New York Federal Reserve and Conference Board 53

W.E.


A weaker dollar should be good for the economy

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Curren

cy Index

Exports ($000s)

U.S. Exports and Major Currencies Index

Exports (L) Major Currenies Index (R)

Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve and U.S. Census Bureau 54

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W.E.


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Earnings Percent Change

Year‐Over‐Year Percentage Change in Hourly Earnings

Average Jan ‘11 – Dec ’142.1%

Average Jan ‘15 – Sep ’172.6%

Since 2015, wage increases have started to rise

55Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Survey

W.E.


Moving on to Michigan

56

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W.E.


Statewide University of Michigan RSQE Forecast

20172018

(Forecast)2019

(Forecast)

GDP(Percent)

2.24 2.48 2.12

Employment (Percent) 1.43 ‐0.05 0.70

Manufacturing Employment (Percent)

0.76 ‐0.81 ‐0.62

Unemployment Rate(Percent)

4.4 4.2 4.1

CPI‐Detroit/Inflation(Percent)

1.88 1.49 3.07

57

W.E.


Strong growth in most industry sectors

Mining and Constr.

Manufacturing

Wholesale

Retail

Transport. and util.

UtilitiesInfo.

Finance

Professional and Tech.

Management

Admin. and Waste Srv.

Educational srv.

Health care

Leisure and hospitality

Other services

Government

‐6

‐4

‐2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Employm

ent Change (000s)

Employment Change, 2016 to 2017

Professional and Business Services

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics 58

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W.E.


After a slight bump from hurricanes, returning to normal

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Annual Rate of Sales (in 000,000s)

Annualized Rate of U.S. Light Vehicle Sales (in millions)

18.1 (2000 to 2007 Peak)

16.8 (2000 to 2007 Average)

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 59

W.E.


Michigan is still a place that “makes things”

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Percen

t of Total Employm

ent

Manufacturing Employment

Michigan United States

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics 60

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W.E.


Moving on to the Battle Creek MSA and Things that Affect the Forecast

61

W.E.


The current unemployment rate is 5.0%, with 3,200 persons looking for work—there are 2,700 openings

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Percen

t of Labor Force

Unemployment Rate for Battle Creek MSA

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics & Burning Glass 62

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W.E.


Total employment recovered by late 2014

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Index (2007 = 100)

Nonfarm Employment Index (2007 = 100)

Battle Creek Michigan United States

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics and Upjohn Institute 63

W.E.


Manufacturing employment recovered in 2017

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Index (2007 = 100)

Manufacturing Employment Index (2007 = 100)



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W.E.


Services recovered in late 2013

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Index (2007 = 100)

Private Service‐Providing Employment Index (2007 = 100)



W.E.


Employment grew by 640 in 2017

Construct.

Manufacturing

Trade, transp, util.

Financial

Professional Srv.Educ. And health

Leisure

Other srv.

Government

‐0.2

‐0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

Employm

ent Change (000s)

Employment Change, 2016 to 2017


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W.E.


The number of millennials in the workforce is increasing

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Employm

ent (000s)

Employment by Age

14 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 and Over

Boomers

67Source: U.S. Census Quarterly Workforce Indicators

Millennials

W.E.


The share of millennials is increasing

0

5

10

15

20

25

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Percen

t of Em

ployed

Employment by Age


Boomers


Millennials

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W.E.


Not surprisingly, older workers have higher earnings

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Average M

onthly Earnings ($)

Earnings by Age



W.E.


Hourly earnings trailed off, possibly due to age mix

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Earnings ($)

Average Hourly Earnings for Total Private Employed (not adjusted)


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W.E.


Average hours worked began trailing off last year

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Hours

Average Weekly Hours for Total Private Employed


W.E.


A continued low level of new housing product

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

New

Dwelling Units

Number of Dwelling Units Placed Under Contract for Construction

New Dwelling Units 12‐Month Moving Average

Source: Dodge Data and Analytics 72

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W.E.


Regional nondurables

‐14

‐12

‐10

‐8

‐6

‐4

‐2

0

2

4

6

‐20 ‐10 0 10 20

Employm

ent Change (%)

Gross Product Change (%)

2018–2023 ProjectionFood

Beverage and Tobacco Products

Textile Mills

Textile Product Mills

Apparel

Leather and Allied Products

Wood Products

Paper

Printing and Related SupportActivitiesPetroleum and Coal Products

Chemical

Plastics and Rubber Products

Plastics & Rubber Products

Source: Moody’s Analytics and Upjohn Institute 73

Chemical

W.E.


Regional durables

‐20

‐15

‐10

‐5

0

5

10

15

‐10 0 10 20 30 40

Employm

ent Change (%)


2018–2023 Projection Nonmetallic Mineral Products

Primary Metals

Fabricated Metal Products

Machinery

Computer and Electronic Products

Electrical Equipment Components

Transportation Equipment

Furniture and Related Products

Miscellaneous

Transportation Equipment


Computer & Electronic Products

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W.E.


Technology and services

‐30

‐15

0

15

30

45

60

‐45 ‐30 ‐15 0 15 30 45 60 75 90

Employm

ent Change (%)


2018–2023 Projection Accounting

Architectural and Engineering

Computer Systems Design

Data Processing

Legal Services

Management of Companies

Management; Scientific; and Technical

Office Administrative Services

Other Information Services

Other Prof; Scientific; and Technical Services

Scientific Research and Development

Software Publishers

Specialized Design Services


Other Information Services

W.E.


A little dated, but the outlook for cereal isn’t great

76Copyright 2016 L.A. Times – reproduction allowable under CCC/DDR license

2/9/2018

39

W.E.


The challenge: How to retain the 22,890 that commute out of the county

77Source: Census on the Map 2015

W.E.


Review of last year’s forecast

1.1

2.3

0.70.9

0.7

‐0.6

0.90.7

‐1

‐1

0

1

1

2

2

3

Total Goods producing Service providing Government

Percen

t Change in

Employm

ent

Annual Percent Change in Employment

Current Estimate Forecasted

78Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics & Upjohn Institute

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40

W.E.


Our View of 2018 and 2019

79

W.E.


Battle Creek MSA 2018–2019 forecast

1.1

2.3

0.70.9

0.1 0.0

0.9

‐0.2

0.1 0.0

0.9

‐0.3‐1

0

1

2

3

4

5


Percen

t Change in

Employm

ent


2017 2018 2019

80Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics & Upjohn Institute

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41

W.E.


National, state, and Battle Creek MSA 2018 forecast

0.1 0.0

0.9

‐0.2‐0.05 ‐0.08

‐0.24

0.97

1.40

‐0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0


Percen

t Change in

Employm

ent



81Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics &

Upjohn Institute

W.E.


What happens in Calhoun County when sales are increased by $1 million in an industry?

82Source: Moody’s Analytics, REMI, & Upjohn Institute

Retail Machinery Auto Parts Food

Total Employment 5.08 4.56 3.24 2.25

Private Non‐Farm Employment 4.92 4.33 3.06 2.13

Output $496,355 $1,287,655 $1,388,484 $1,264,467

Value Added $325,353 $525,336 $459,181 $580,460

Personal Income $110,212 $213,599 $160,527 $111,764

Calhoun Employment 1,198 1,363 5,273 1,033

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W.E.


Additional factors

Headwinds

• Volatile dollar

• Unclear regulatory changes

• Tight labor market

• Limited buildings

• Potential rising cost of capital

• Longer‐run slowing light vehicles

Tailwinds

• Volatile dollar

• Unclear regulatory changes

• Continued expansion

• Recent estimates of GRP at +3%

• Strong consumer confidence

83

W.E.


Questions and comments?

• Jim Robey, PhD – Director of Regional Economic Planning Services

– [email protected]

– 269‐343‐5541

– Twitter: JimRobey

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Q & A

Closing Remarks

How YOU can help Battle Creek:

• Promote Battle Creek

• Share and celebrate wins

• Recognize and meet challenges that lie ahead

• Be bold

• Be a champion for change

• Embrace a mantra for 2018 and beyond…

LIGHTNING BEFORE THE THUNDER!

february 8, 2018 - battle creek unlimited...2/9/2018 1 2018 economic outlook joe sobieralski,...

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