february 5, 2009 strategic vision plan city of mandan community meeting
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February 5, 2009
Strategic Vision PlanCity of MandanCommunity Meeting
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Presented By• J. Mac Holladay, CEO• Alex Pearlstein, Senior Project Manager• Ellen Anderson, Research Manager
Community Meeting
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Agenda
• National realities
• About Market Street
• Overview of the Strategic Vision planning process
• Key findings from the Economic and Demographic Snapshot
• Next steps
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National Realities
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U.S. Economy: Job losses in 2008
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, seasonally adjusted
-600,000
-500,000
-400,000
-300,000
-200,000
-100,000
0 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
-76,000
-83,000
-88,000
-67,000
-47,000-100,000
-67,000
-127,000
-403,000
-423,000
-584,000-524,000
Total jobs lost: 2.5
million
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U.S. Economy: Gains and losses by sectorDecember 2008
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Seasonally adjusted.
(150) (100) (50) - 50
Manufacturing
Trade and transport.
Prof. and tech. srvs
Construction
Retail
Wholesale trade
Leisure and hospitality
Information
Financial activities
Education
Government
Health Care
Thousands
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Unemployment Rates: December 2008
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, seasonally adjusted
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Metro Economies Report, 2000-2008
-2.73+-2.5 to 0
0 to 2.5
2.5+
Source: U.S. Conference of Mayors, Jan. 2009
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The World in 2009
“Anyone hoping for a period of calm after the turbulence of the past year will be disappointed. For the economy and for business, as well as for politics, 2009 promises to be a year of bracing adjustment to a changed world.”
Daniel Franklin, EditorThe World in 2009The Economist
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Announced Job Cuts – January 2009
Circuit City 30,000Pfizer/Wyeth 26,000Caterpillar 20,000Alcoa 13,500Sprint Nextel 8,000TDK Corp. 8,000Home Depot 7,000ING 7,000Starbucks 6,700Intel 6,000BHP Billiton 6,000Schlumberger 6,000Eaton 5,200Microsoft 5,000
Ericsson 5,000Boeing 4,500Kodak 4,500Hertz 4,000Motorola 4,000Corus 3,500Honda 3,100EMC Corp. 2,400Barclay’s 2,100Nortel 2,000Cessna 2,000MeadWestvaco 2,000Clear Channel 1,850Target 1,500
WellPoint 1,500Williams-Sonoma 1,400Conoco Phillips 1,300Huntsman Corp. 1,175AMD 1,100Advanced Micro Devices 1,100Harley-Davidson 1,100Cigna 1,100Saks Fifth Avenue 1,100United Airlines 1,000BCBS of Michigan 1,000Walgreens 1,000UAL Corporation 1,000
212,675 JOBS
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Losing ConfidenceThe consumer confidence index from a survey of 5,000 U.S. households:
Source: The Conference Board
Seasonally adjusted: 1985=100
January 37.7
Nov. 2006: 105.3
October 2008: 38.0
December 2008: 38.6
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Recent Headlines
“Macy’s to Shed 7,000 Jobs”Rachel DadesWall Street JournalFebruary 3, 2009
“More States Considering Tax Breaks to Woo Jobs” Stephaine SimonWall Street JournalFebruary 2, 2009
“Unemployment Rises in Every State” Conor DoughertyWall Street JournalJanuary 28, 2009
“Conference Board: U.S. could lose another 2 million jobs in 2009”Adam KressAtlanta Business Chronicle January 12, 2009
“Yearly Job Loss Worst Since 1945” Kelley Evans & Kris MaherWall Street JournalJanuary 10-11, 2009
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Metro Economies Report
Projected 2009 Employment (Q4 08 – Q4 09)
Number %New York, NY -180,800 -2.1%Los Angeles, CA -164,100 -3.0%Chicago, IL -80,300 -1.8%Detroit, MI -50,400 -2.7%Las Vegas, NV -35,700 -3.9%Minneapolis, MN -13,800 -0.8%Omaha, NE -5,500 -1.2%Des Moines, IA -5,100 -1.6%Sioux Falls, SD -1,800 -1.4%Boise, ID -1,800 -0.6%Fargo, ND -1,400 -1.2%Bismarck-Mandan, ND -1,300 -2.1%
MSAEmployment Change
Source: U.S. Conference of Mayors, Jan. 2009
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“Business’ 10 Biggest Battles”
1. Labor Elections: Why Obama may Disappoint the Unions
2. Housing: The Mortgage Fight has Just Begun
3. Climate Change: A Rising Chorus for a Law that Limits Emissions
4. Health Reform: Stumbling Blocks still Remain
5. Corporate Taxes: The Country Struggle over Who Pays What
6. Broadband: Faster or More Inclusive?
7. Education: NO Option Left Behind
8. Immigration: One Reform at a Time
9. Executive Pay: Bailout Money Could Have More Strings Attached
10. Trade: Hawks will Square off Against Retailers
Source: John Carey & Theo FrancisBusiness WeekJanuary 26, 2009
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How Far Down?Recession Realities
• Mortgage and financial crisis• Huge decline in discretionary (especially retail) spending• The continuing decline in housing value, sales, and new construction• Plummeting consumer confidence• Job losses every month of 2008• Rising food costs• Federal and state deficits• Automakers at risk and requesting bailout• The continuing cost in Iraq and Afghanistan (human and fiscal)• Enormous stock losses and continuing fluctuation• Recent reductions of oil prices but no stability
Source: J. Mac Holladay, January 2009
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Employment Prospects
Top Jobs
1. Nurses
2. Home Care and Nursing Aides
3. Orderlies
4. Pharmacy Techs
5. Physical Therapists
6. Physician and Dental Assistants
7. Mental Health Counselors
Small Base – Fast Growing Jobs
1. Veterinarians and Vet Technicians
2. Makeup Artists
3. Skin Care Specialists
4. Gaming Investigators
Source: The Kiplinger Letter
Washington
January 30, 2009
Long-Term Prospects
1. Teachers – Post-Secondary, Elementary, and Assistants
2. Computer Software Engineers
3. Data Communications Analysts
4. Systems Analysts5. Accountants and Auditors6. Truck Drivers7. Security Guards8. Carpenters9. Landscapers10.Management Analysts
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“Elvis Has Left the Mountain”
“First, if it is not apparent to you yet, it will be soon: there is no magic bullet for this economic crisis, no magic bailout package, no magic stimulus…We are going to have to learn to live with a lot more uncertainty for a lot longer than our generation has ever experienced.”
Thomas L. FriedmanNew York TimesFebruary 1, 2009
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Market Street Services
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Background on Market Street
• Market Street brings original insights and clarity to the evaluation and revitalization of the places where people live, work and grow.
• Through honest and informed assessments, we can equip you with the tools to create meaningful change.
• Our solutions successfully merge our experience and expertise with the economic and social realities of our clients.
• Market Street’s community clients are successful at creating stronger programs, increasing operational budgets, and creating new quality jobs that improve the quality of life in their communities.
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Market Street’s Client Communities
• Current projects:› Palm Beach County, Florida› Tulsa, Oklahoma› Fort Benning (GA) Regional Growth Management Plan› Little Rock, Arkansas› San Marcos, Texas› Decatur, Alabama
• Implementation contracts:› State of West Virginia› Gwinnett County, Georgia
• Recent projects:› Austin, Texas › Jefferson City, Missouri› Nashville, Tennessee› State of Wyoming
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Mandan’sStrategic Visioning Process
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Scope of Work
March
Completed
In Progress
April/May
May
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Economic and Demographic Snapshot
• Analyze demographic and economic trends and assess their impact on community capacity
• Provide information on:– Growth patterns – population and employment– Community make-up - age and race– Community well-being – poverty, per capita income– Economic structure – business sectors– Labor force capacity – participation rates, unemployment rates
• Compare Mandan-Morton County to the Bismarck metro area, state of North Dakota, and the U.S.
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Community Assessment
• Competitiveness is far more holistic than just traditional infrastructure and business costs
• Key factors:– Education and workforce development– Infrastructure and land use– Business costs– Quality of life
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Stakeholder Input Process
• Qualitative information gathering
• Build consensus
• Project website: mandanvisionplan.com
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Strategic Vision Plan
• Culmination of all prior research components
• Recommendation of goals, objectives, and action steps to re-align Mandan for the future
• Describes best practices and provides benchmarks and performance measures
• Strategy areas could include:– Preferred land-uses by district– Marketing efforts– Development preferences by type– Education and training programs– Entrepreneurship and small business programs– Leveraging regional assets
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Implementation Guidelines
• Critical to the success of the Vision Plan
• Key components:– Program assessments and recommended enhancements – Funding allocation recommendations– Timetable – 1-year and 5-year
› Priority actions identified to provide “early victories”
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Economic and Demographic Snapshot
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Demographic Trends:Population change
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and the USDA Economic Research Service
Great Plains Hit Hard by Out-Migration (2000-2007)
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Demographic Trends:Population change
Total Population Growth, 2000-2007
Number Percent
City of Mandan 16,718 17,736 1,018 6.1%
City of Bismarck 55,532 59,503 3,971 7.2%
Bismarck MSA 94,719 103,242 8,523 9.0%
Burleigh County 69,416 77,316 7,900 11.4%
Morton County 25,303 25,926 623 2.5%
North Dakota 642,200 639,715 -2,485 -0.4%
United States 281,421,906 301,621,157 20,199,251 7.2%
Population Change2000 Population
2007 Population
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
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Demographic Trends:Age distribution
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
17 and Under
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-64 65 and Older
Mandan-Morton County
Bismarck MSA
North Dakota
United States
Population Change by Age Group, 2000-2007
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Note: Like most Great Plains communities, Mandan-Morton County has a slightly older age distribution compared to the U.S.
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Demographic Trends:Race and ethnic composition
Population Change by Race and Ethnicity, 2000-2007
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
White Black HispanicAmerican
Indian Other
Mandan-Morton County 314 28 65 138 78
Percent change, 2000-07 1% 74% 40% 23% 22%
Bismarck MSA 6,256 294 572 275 399
Percent change, 2000-07 7% 144% 91% 10% 33%
North Dakota (13,738) 2,358 4,216 3,159 1,520
Percent change, 2000-07 -2% 63% 54% 10% 14%
United States 4,538,793 3,089,367 10,198,493 217,851 2,154,747
Percent change, 2000-07 2% 9% 29% 11% 14%
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Demographic Trends:Educational attainment
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2000 2007
20% 14%
32% 37%
21% 18%
10% 11%
14% 16%
3% 4% Graduate or professional degree
Bachelor's degree
Associate degree
Some college, no degree
High school graduate
No diploma
Mandan-Morton County Educational Attainment (for adults ages 25+)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
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Demographic Trends:Poverty rates
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Mandan-Morton County
Bismarck MSA North Dakota United States
9.6%
8.2%
10.4% 11.3%
9.1% 8.1%
11.8%13.0%
2000 2007
0.0%
3.0%
6.0%
9.0%
12.0%
15.0%
18.0%
Mandan-Morton County
Bismarck MSA North Dakota United States
12.1%
9.6%
13.1%
16.2%
12.8%
10.1%
14.0%
18.0%
2000 2007
Total Population Rates
Child Poverty Rates
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Demographic Trends:Per capita income
Percent Amount
Mandan-Morton County $25,850 $29,920 15.7% $4,070
Bismarck MSA $30,049 $34,357 14.3% $4,308
North Dakota $29,389 $32,763 11.5% $3,374
United States $34,940 $36,714 5.1% $1,774
Change
2000 2006
Real Per Capita Income, 2000 and 2006
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
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Economic Trends:Employment and wages
Total Employment and Wages, Q2 2006 and Q2 2008
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Number Percent Amount Percent
Mandan-Morton County 9,288 199 2.2% $31,753 $1,528 5.1%
Bismarck MSA 59,433 1,907 3.3% $34,941 $2,656 8.2%
North Dakota 352,838 13,555 4.0% $34,031 $3,311 10.8%
United States 136,141,522 1,701,221 1.3% $43,732 $2,956 7.2%
Change since Q2 2006
Q2 2008
Employment Average Annual Wage
Q2 2008
Change since Q2 2006
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Economic Trends:Unemployment rates
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
2007 2008
Mandan-Morton County
Bismarck MSA
North Dakota
United States
Monthly Unemployment Rates, 11/2007 – 11/2008
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Economic Trends: Economic Structure, Mandan-Morton County
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics
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Economic Trends:Average Annual Wages
Q2 2008
Change since Q2
2006
% change since Q2
2006
Manufacturing $47,486 -$3,808 -7.4%
Professional and technical services $43,376 $3,747 9.5%
Public administration $37,669 $1,722 4.8%
Transportation and warehousing $37,168 $1,351 3.8%
Management of companies and enterprises $37,095 $7,499 25.3%
Finance and insurance $36,132 $802 2.3%
Construction $34,546 $3,987 13.0%
Wholesale trade $32,609 $1,642 5.3%
Information $32,584 $7,349 29.1%
Retail trade $28,074 $2,540 9.9%
Other services, except public administration $22,115 $954 4.5%
Administrative and waste services $21,609 -$3,856 -15.1%
Accommodation and food services $11,416 $1,378 13.7%
Arts, entertainment, and recreation $8,005 -$1,433 -15.2%
Educational services* - - -
Health care and social assistance* - - -
$31,753 $1,528 5.1%
Mandan-Morton County
Wag
es a
bove
Cou
nty
aver
age
Wag
es b
elow
Cou
nty
aver
age
No
data
av
ail.
Average Annual Wage (all sectors)
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• Smaller proportion of local entrepreneurs in “white collar” services
– professional and technical services
– real estate– finance and insurance– and information
• High proportions of local entrepreneurs in
– other services– retail trade– health care– construction
Economic Trends:Entrepreneurship
$-
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
Mandan-Morton County
Bismarck MSA North Dakota United States
$28,
821
$32,
562
$34,
112
$43,
638
$31,719 $35,069 $35,978
$46,724
2002 2006
Non-Employer Average Annual Earnings, 2002 and 2006
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
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Key Findings: Demographics
• Slow, steady population growth in Mandan and Morton County– Older age distribution than the region, state, and nation– Growing more diverse, but is still fairly homogenous
• Educational attainment of local adults trails behind, but is improving– Lower percentage of local adults with a bachelor’s, graduate, or professional degree;
however, there has been growth in these segments since 2000 and a decline in the percentage of residents without a high school diploma
• Per capita incomes lag behind, but have experienced strong growth– Real PCI grew 15.7 percent in Morton County, more than the region and state and triple
the national rate
• Childhood poverty rates are an area of concern
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Key Trends: Economics
• Mandan-Morton County’s economy is growing and well diversified; however, growth trails the metro area and state, and local unemployment is higher– Still, the local economy is performing better than the nation– Local job growth in key sectors including health care, construction,
manufacturing, education, and professional and technical services.
• Average wages in Mandan-Morton County are rising, both overall and in key sectors
• Nearly 2,000 local residents claim themselves as “non-employers” – and their average income is rising
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Next Steps
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Next Steps in Process
February – May • Market Street will continue to work with the Steering Committee
May 27 (5:00 – 6:00) – Community Meeting• Public roll-out of the Mandan Vision Plan
In the mean time….log on and take the online survey!• Mandanvisionplan.com
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Online Survey
Mandanvisionplan.com
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“Coming together is a beginning; keeping together is progress; working together is success.”
Henry Ford
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Questions?
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Thank you!