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MelissaIndependentSchool District

Demographic Update

Spring 2015

• Texas remains a top state in job growth in 2014, with a rate of 4%, 1.9 percentage points higher than the national average.

• The state's unemployment rate has been at or below the national rate for 7 consecutive years. (State Comptrollers Office)

• Unemployment rates - Texas Labor Market Information (December 2014)- U.S. 5.4%- Texas 4.1%- DFW MSA 4.0%- Collin County 3.7%

• In 2014, Collin County issued 6,698 single-family housing permits. This is a 3.9% rise from 2013. The County also issued 3,734 multi-family permits. (Real Estate Center at Texas A&M)

Economic Conditions

2

Annual Job Growth – Nov 2013 to Nov 2014

3

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

Houston Dallas ‐ FortWorth

San Jose Austin Phoenix San Antonio Los Angeles New York City

4.5%

2.8%

3.8%

3.2%

3.8%

2.7%

1.1%1.6%

• DFW gained 136,900 net jobs from November 2013 to November 2014• Ranked 2nd in the U.S. in total job growth

Local Economic Overview

5

State Farm Begins Relocation• State Farm Insurance is currently moving employees into

its new hub in Richardson• The move will bring up to 8,000 employees to DFW• Two additional buildings will be complete by the end of

2015, and a third will open in 2016• State Farm will occupy approximately 2 million square feet

in the CityLine development• Located near President George Bush Turnpike and North

Central Expressway

Toyota Breaks Ground• Toyota Motor North America broke ground on its

new headquarters in Plano• New $350 million campus on 100 acres will hold up

to 4,000 employees at completion• Employees will relocate from several states to DFW• This is the first time in the company’s history all its

employees will be housed together• Toyota plans to have 300 employees relocate to

DFW in 2015

Texas Enrollment Trends

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2013 State EnrollmentTotal Enrollment 5,151,925Total Growth 76,085

120,145

73,685

78,644

78,078

98,27385,773

64,962

77,261

76,085

020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000 Enrollment Change

4,399,019 4,519,164

4,592,8494,671,493

4,749,5714,847,844

4,933,6174,998,579

5,075,8405,151,925

4,000,000

4,200,000

4,400,000

4,600,000

4,800,000

5,000,000

5,200,000

5,400,000 Total Enrollment

Region 10 Enrollment Trends

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Rank District2008/09 

Enrollment2013/14 

Enrollment5‐YEAR Change (08/09‐13/14)

1 Frisco ISD 30,797 46,053 15,2562 Richardson ISD 34,407 38,283 3,8763 Prosper ISD 3,125 6,413 3,2884 Mesquite ISD 37,030 39,909 2,8795 Allen ISD 17,590 20,382 2,7926 Wylie ISD (Collin) 11,349 13,726 2,3777 Dallas ISD 157,352 159,713 2,3618 Irving ISD 33,131 35,328 2,1979 Grand Prairie ISD 25,996 27,740 1,74410 Coppell ISD 9,948 11,364 1,41611 Forney ISD 7,438 8,648 1,21012 Waxahachie ISD 6,646 7,814 1,16813 McKinney ISD 23,401 24,565 1,16414 Rockwall ISD 13,497 14,626 1,12915 Lovejoy ISD 2,873 3,739 86616 Princeton ISD 2,769 3,623 85417 Lancaster ISD 5,995 6,820 82518 Highland Park ISD (Dallas) 6,331 7,037 70619 Royse City ISD 4,323 5,015 69220 Melissa ISD 1,257 1,895 638

Melissa ISD Housing Overview

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Existing Home Inventory (2.4 Month’s Supply)

‐5%

23%

10%

7%

3%

19%

YTD Sales(16 Sales in 2014)

Number of Listings(40 Dec. 2014)

Average Price($228,160 Dec. 2014)

Median Price($219,270 Dec. 2014)

Days on the Market(68 Days)

DFW New Home Ranking Report

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ISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 4Q14

Source: Metrostudy

Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future1 Frisco ISD 2,743 2,669 4,064 7,3192 Denton ISD 1,830 1,666 2,384 15,0883 Northwest ISD 1,223 1,229 1,507 22,1804 Prosper ISD 1,335 1,133 2,138 19,5035 Keller ISD 1,022 1,000 1,293 3,0946 Dallas ISD 928 914 1,956 5,8247 Lewisville ISD 919 873 2,248 3,7058 Eagle Mtn. ‐ Saginaw ISD 832 825 1,661 19,6459 Allen ISD 656 623 766 1,41110 Rockwall ISD 726 619 1,649 7,70111 McKinney ISD 601 561 1,202 6,83712 Mansfield ISD 543 546 1,043 5,44313 Forney ISD 565 542 922 11,39714 Little Elm ISD 624 539 1,306 5,10915 Crowley ISD 494 425 1,476 8,48316 Burleson ISD 404 416 734 3,79317 Plano ISD 416 383 1,132 1,30618 HEB ISD 436 371 375 5,36119 Wylie ISD 459 368 552 4,75520 Midlothian ISD 446 365 919 20,29421 Anna ISD 337 356 152 3,57922 Garland ISD 373 351 586 4,18823 Fort Worth ISD 337 311 1,097 4,21024 Aledo ISD 356 301 929 15,72425 Waxahachie ISD 348 279 751 9,18826 Royse City ISD 295 266 757 7,12327 Carrollton‐Farmers Branch ISD 252 248 206 65128 Melissa ISD 286 220 404 5,06029 Weatherford ISD 250 210 468 82830 Princeton ISD 211 182 251 1,510

New Housing Activity

9Source: Metrostudy

• In 2014, Melissa ISD had more than 280 starts, this is an increase of 71% year over year• Closings were over 200 for the year, a rise of more than 20 units compared to 2013• Inventory remains in a good position to sustain the current closing rate

Starts 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Closings 2010 2011 2012 2013 20141Q 48 25 26 39 57 1Q 21 17 29 50 332Q 22 26 62 36 48 2Q 27 16 33 59 613Q 17 31 67 50 91 3Q 32 35 44 43 484Q 19 27 44 42 90 4Q 28 28 43 44 78

Total 106 109 199 167 286 Total 108 96 149 196 220

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160 Starts Closings Inventory

Melissa ISD Housing Activity

Annual Closing Distribution 2Q14

10Source: Metrostudy

Top 6 Subdivisions ‐ 2Q14 (Ranked by Annual Closings)

Rank SubdivisionAnnual Starts

Quarter Starts

Annual Closings

Quarter Closings

1 Villages of Melissa 60 13 54 232 North Creek Estates (Melissa) 49 9 50 193 Liberty 39 14 34 74 McKinney Meadows 30 8 21 85 Hunters Creek (Melissa) 12 2 14 36 Trails of Melissa 1 0 6 0

TOTALS 191 46 179 60

Vacant Developed Lots 2Q14

11Source: Metrostudy

Top 6 Subdivisions ‐ 2Q14 (Ranked by remaining VDL)

Rank Subdivision VDL Future1 Villages of Melissa 89 8762 North Creek Estates (Melissa) 70 5983 Liberty 47 7344 McKinney Meadows 37 225 Country Ridge 30 06 Hunters Creek (Melissa) 7 228

TOTALS 280 2,458

Future Lots 2Q14

12Source: Metrostudy

Top 10 Subdivisions ‐ 2Q14 (Ranked by Future Inventory)

Rank Subdivision VDL Future1 Villages of Melissa 89 8762 Liberty 47 7343 Estates of Willow Wood, The (McKinney) 0 6404 North Creek Estates (Melissa) 70 5985 South Meadow 0 5856 Crystal Park 0 4277 Winchester Farms 0 4028 Trails of Melissa 0 2369 Hunters Creek (Melissa) 7 22810 Villages of Melissa Townhomes 0 178

TOTALS 213 4,904

MELISSA

MCKILLOP

MELISSA

MELISSARIDGE

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Active SubdivisionsLiberty and Trails of Melissa

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Liberty • 1,250 total lots• 525 occupied• 465 students in Sept. 2014• Phase 3 delivered with 173 lots• 26 closings in 2014• Building 75-100 in 2015

Trails of Melissa• 343 total• 230 futures• 17 U/C• 70 students in Sept. 2014• Building 50-60 homes in 2015

MCKILLOP

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Active SubdivisionsNorth Creek and Magnolia Ridge

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Magnolia Ridge• Future single family• 173 lots in Phase 1• Groundwork underway

North Creek • 950 total lots• 550 futures• 23 U/C• 173 students in Sept. 2014• Phase 2 and 3 under construction• Building 50 homes in 2015

Liberty

MELISSA

MCKILLOP

MELISSA

MELISSARIDGE

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Active SubdivisionVillages of Melissa

Villages of Melissa• 1,200 total lots• 870 futures• 58 U/C• 189 students in Sept. 2014• Phase 2 underway with 83 lots• Building 75 homes in 2015

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Liberty

NMCDONA

LDST

FM543

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Future SubdivisionEstates of Willow Wood

Estates of Willow Wood• 640 future lots• 305 acres• Phase 1= 190 lots• Currently undergoing annexation and

rezoning with the City of McKinney

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Enrollment History

*Yellow box = largest grade per year*Green box = second largest grade per year

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Year (Oct) EE PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th TotalTotal 

Growth % Growth2010/11 4 18 126 113 107 113 121 116 106 105 116 113 104 106 85 1,4532011/12 7 23 139 126 124 119 118 137 131 120 104 129 126 98 99 1,600 147 10.1%2012/13 9 25 130 146 130 126 125 124 143 144 132 114 133 123 90 1,694 94 5.9%2013/14 6 21 183 139 163 148 140 132 142 150 147 142 119 136 127 1,895 201 11.9%2014/15 11 14 152 185 170 182 162 164 150 158 171 174 154 124 139 2,110 215 11.3%

K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total GrowthRoll‐up 152 152 185 170 182 162 164 150 158 171 174 154 124 2,123 13

Prev Cohort 126 154 226 190 199 190 186 167 180 202 189 160 127 2,322 2123‐YR Avg. 161 159 208 185 198 177 182 163 172 191 183 156 123 2,282 172

K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th3 Year Avg. 1.058 1.044 1.124 1.090 1.085 1.093 1.108 1.087 1.087 1.119 1.053 1.014 0.9912012/13 0.935 1.050 1.032 1.016 1.050 1.051 1.044 1.099 1.100 1.096 1.031 0.976 0.9182013/14 1.408 1.069 1.116 1.138 1.111 1.056 1.145 1.049 1.021 1.076 1.044 1.023 1.0332014/15 0.831 1.011 1.223 1.117 1.095 1.171 1.136 1.113 1.140 1.184 1.085 1.042 1.022

Cohort Analysis

Initial Outlook Analysis

Ten Year ForecastBy Grade Level

*Yellow box = largest grade per year*Green box = second largest grade per year

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• Melissa ISD will reach more than 2,300 students next fall• 5 year growth = 1,233 students• 2019/20 enrollment = 3,343• 10 year growth = 2,823 students• 2024/25 enrollment = 4,933

Year (Oct) EE PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th TotalTotal 

Growth% 

Growth2010/11 4 18 126 113 107 113 121 116 106 105 116 113 104 106 85 1,4532011/12 7 23 139 126 124 119 118 137 131 120 104 129 126 98 99 1,600 147 10.1%2012/13 9 25 130 146 130 126 125 124 143 144 132 114 133 123 90 1,694 94 5.9%2013/14 6 21 183 139 163 148 140 132 142 150 147 142 119 136 127 1,895 201 11.9%2014/15 11 14 152 185 170 182 162 164 150 158 171 174 154 124 139 2,110 215 11.3%2015/16 11 14 164 167 209 189 198 177 182 163 172 191 183 157 125 2,302 192 9.1%2016/17 11 14 181 174 197 234 208 219 200 198 177 194 203 180 160 2,550 248 10.8%2017/18 11 14 190 191 205 220 256 234 247 219 219 202 207 208 184 2,807 257 10.1%2018/19 11 14 205 204 222 229 240 284 263 274 239 247 214 214 203 3,063 256 9.1%2019/20 11 14 221 218 239 248 251 267 320 289 300 271 262 217 215 3,343 280 9.1%2020/21 11 14 232 235 255 267 271 280 300 353 317 340 293 268 217 3,653 310 9.3%2021/22 11 14 246 247 275 285 292 301 315 331 387 359 364 300 267 3,994 341 9.3%2022/23 11 14 258 262 289 307 312 325 339 347 363 439 384 371 302 4,323 329 8.2%2023/24 11 14 268 275 307 323 336 347 365 374 380 411 471 392 377 4,651 328 7.6%2024/25 11 14 281 286 322 343 353 374 390 402 410 431 440 481 395 4,933 282 6.1%

Ten Year ForecastBy Campus

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HISTORY Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONSCampus 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25

HARRY MCKILLOP ELEMENTARY 660 714 754 811 831 885 951 1,014 1,078 1,141 1,198 1,257ELEMENTARY TOTAL  660 714 754 811 831 885 951 1,014 1,078 1,141 1,198 1,257Elementary Absolute Change 94 54 40 57 20 54 66 63 64 63 57 59Elementary Percent Change 16.61% 8.18% 5.60% 7.56% 2.47% 6.50% 7.46% 6.62% 6.31% 5.84% 5.00% 4.92%MELISSA RIDGE INTERMEDIATE 414 476 557 627 737 787 838 851 908 976 1,048 1,117INTERMEDIATE SCHOOL TOTAL 414 476 557 627 737 787 838 851 908 976 1,048 1,117Intermdiate Absolute Change 22 62 81 70 110 50 51 13 57 68 72 69Intermediate Percent Change 5.61% 14.98% 17.02% 12.57% 17.54% 6.78% 6.48% 1.55% 6.70% 7.49% 7.38% 6.58%MELISSA MIDDLE SCHOOL 297 329 335 375 438 513 589 670 718 710 754 812MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTAL 297 329 335 375 438 513 589 670 718 710 754 812Middle School Absolute Change 22 32 6 40 63 75 76 81 48 ‐8 44 58Middle School Percent Change 8.00% 10.77% 1.82% 11.94% 16.80% 17.12% 14.81% 13.75% 7.16% ‐1.11% 6.20% 7.69%MELISSA HIGH SCHOOL 523 590 655 736 800 877 964 1,117 1,289 1,495 1,650 1,746HIGH SCHOOL TOTAL 523 590 655 736 800 877 964 1,117 1,289 1,495 1,650 1,746High School Absolute Change 63 67 65 81 64 77 87 153 172 206 155 96High School Percent Change 13.70% 12.81% 11.02% 12.37% 8.70% 9.63% 9.92% 15.87% 15.40% 15.98% 10.37% 5.82%COLLIN COUNTY JJAEP 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1DISTRICT TOTALS  1,895 2,110 2,302 2,550 2,807 3,063 3,343 3,653 3,994 4,323 4,651 4,933District Absolute Change 201 215 192 248 257 256 280 310 341 329 328 282District Percent Change 11.87% 11.35% 9.10% 10.77% 10.08% 9.12% 9.14% 9.27% 9.33% 8.24% 7.59% 6.06%

Summary

• Texas economy continues to be the strongest state economy in the country.

• DFW will continue to be a leader in job and population growth due to the housing market and its diverse economy.

• Starts and closes were over 220 units each for 2014.

• Vacant Developed Lot supply is in a good position to sustain the current starting rate.

• MISD can expect an increase of approximately 1,233 students during the next 5 years.

• 2019/20 enrollment projection 3,343.

• MISD is projected to have almost 5,000 students for the 2024/25 school year.

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