february 16, 2014cairoclimatetalks.net/sites/default/files/dr samir tantawi eeaa.pdfdomestic climate...

February 16, 2014

Samir Tantawi1

Domestic Climate Change

Related Activities in

Various Sectors in Egypt

Cairo Climate Talks

Samir Tantawi, 17.Feb.2014

Ministry of State for Environmental Affairs (Ministry of State for Environmental Affairs (MSEAMSEA))

Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency (Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency (EEAAEEAA))

ContentsContentsContentsContents

Introduction

GHG emissionsin Egypt

Mitigationpotential in Egypt

• Energy

• Industry

• Transport

LECB Programme

NAMAs

Introduction

GHG Emissions

February 16, 2014

Samir Tantawi2

Mitigation

GHG Emissions in Egypt

Background Background

Population: 84,203,661 (2013 est.)

GDP (PPP) (2011 est.) :– Total: $508.265 billion

– Per capita: $6,361

GDP by Sector (2010 est.)

– agriculture: 13.5%;

– industry: 37.9%;

– services: 48.6%

1990 1990 1990 1990 1990 1990 1990 1990 (INC,(INC,(INC,(INC,(INC,(INC,(INC,(INC,9999999999999999)))))))) 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 ((((((((SNC,SNC,SNC,SNC,SNC,SNC,SNC,SNC,1010101010101010)))))))) 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 ((((((((TNC,TNC,TNC,TNC,TNC,TNC,TNC,TNC,1414141414141414))))))))

GHG emissions without LUCF GHG emissions without LUCF GHG emissions without LUCF GHG emissions without LUCF GHG emissions without LUCF GHG emissions without LUCF GHG emissions without LUCF GHG emissions without LUCF 116116116116,,,,739739739739....6 6 6 6 193193193193,,,,237237237237....6 6 6 6 ????????????

EmissionsEmissionsEmissions, in Gg CO2 equivalent

February 16, 2014

Samir Tantawi3

72.16%66.36%

19%20.41%

8.85%12.65%

0% 0.58%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

CO2 CH4 N2O HFCs+PFCs+SF6

1990 2000

EmissionsEmissionsGHG emissions by gas (without LUCF)

70.90%

60.13%

8.80%14.37% 15.43%16.46%

4.78%9.04%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Energy Industrial Processes Agriculture Waste

1990 2000

EmissionsEmissionsGHG emissions by sector (without LUCF)

Mitigation Potential

in Egypt

Emission trend

SOURCE: CAIT database on Egypt; POLES projections; CIDIAC; Enerdata; IEA Egypt profile; Global Insight; McKinsey Global GHG

Abatement Cost Curve V2.0; Loca experts interviews; team analysis

February 16, 2014

Samir Tantawi4

Power, cement, transport and other industry

will increase their share of total emissions



Potential abatement

Overall abatement potential is in the range of ~200 Mt CO2e, equivalent to

~36% of BAU at 2030



Most potential abatement comes from key sectors

which account for ~80% of the total abatement

SOURCE: Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0

National Inventory System (NIS)/Target/BUR

Low Emission Development Strategies/Plans

Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs)

Measurable, Reportable, Verifiable (MRV) System

Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)

Mitigation Framework

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Samir Tantawi5

NIS

StakeholdersProjects,

Programmes,

Initiatives

MRV Systems

NAMAs

CDM

Carbon

Footprint

Carbon

Neutrality

Mitigation Actions

NMM

Nat.

Com.

BUR

LEDS

Reporting

Legislation NegotiationsCC-National

Committee

CAPMAS IDSC

Mitigation

Framework in Egypt(TANTAWI, 2013)


in Energy Sector

Energy Supply/Demand Deficit is expected to reach (30-50) Mtoebetween (2022- 2030)

i.e., about 24% - 35% of the Demand

The Challenge

Energy Efficiency Unit-IDSC

Enhancing exploration activities for fossil energy resources.

Upgrading Energy Efficiency (EE) both in the supply & demand side sectors.

Increasing the contribution of Renewable Energy (RE) resources.

Developing an appropriate energy institutional and legislative frameworks.

Abatement of the energy sector environmental impacts.

Energy Policy Reform


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Samir Tantawi6

Adopting Sectoral/National EE Strategies targeting at least 10% savings of the total end use energy consumption by 2022.

Developing 10-year EE action plan(s) mainly for:

• - Greening the Industrial Sector.

• - Promoting Sustainable Transportation.

• - Enhancing EE in the Building Sector.

EE National Plan


Waste Heat Recovery (WHR)

Combustion Control (CC)

Power Factor Improvement (PFI)

High Efficiency Lighting (HEL)

High Efficiency Motors (HEM)

Energy Management Systems (EMS)

Co-Generation

Energy Efficiency Technologies

Mohamed Salah Elsobki (jr.)

Metals

Food (beverages)

Chemicals

Paper

Glass

Pharmaceuticals

Textiles

Fertilizers

Commercial facilities, hotels, hospitals

Implemented at:


150 thermal units were tuned

100 gas analyzers 208,000 TOE saved

Valued at 25 million US$

Increase in efficiency about

7.7%

25% of the industrial thermal units have a potential for energy

savings

Tune up of boilers and furnaces


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Samir Tantawi7

CO2 reductions 611,781 tons

CO reductions 5,379 tons

NOx reductions 2,563 tons SOx reduction 14,273 tons

Tune up of boilers and furnaces


• Implementing the planned MOEE Large Scale Wind and Solar plants.

• (NREA targets to build 2,500

MW of solar power plants;

2,800 MW CSP & 700 MW PV

plants; out of which 67% is to

be implemented by private

sector).

• Promoting PV distributed applications (2,000 Mw by 2022).

RE Electricity Generation

RE National Plan – to be updated


• The use of SWH in 50% of the newly established buildings and promoting local production.

• Promoting market to reach 850,000 installed SWH by 2021/2022; expected to save 1.4 Mtoe and 3,000 GWhannually

SWH in the Housing and Tourism sectors:

• IPH consumes 35% of the industry energy consumption; 10-15% of it can be saved by low and medium solar heating systems.

Solar Industrial Process Heat Systems

• Biogas for rural development - energy and fertilizers from urban and agriculture solid waste.Promoting Biomass

Energy Systems

RE National Plan – to be updated


Power SectorPower Sector

Total investment required through 2011-2030 to capture the overall potential is in the range of EUR ~22 billion

Solar, Wind and Hydro, with a total abatement potential of ~54 Mt CO2e represent the most relevant levers

~37% of the overall abatement potential (~43 Mt CO2e) is driven by reduction of electricity demand in consuming sectors (mainly from building

sector)

Overall abatement potential ~116 Mt CO2e, (~56% of total power BAU emissions in 2030)

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Samir Tantawi8

Efficient Lighting for residential and commercial sectors as well as street lighting.

Energy Efficiency Labeling for appliances and with relevant standards were developed.

Energy Efficiency Code in Buildings.

SEC approved a RE target of 20% of produced electricity by 2020, including Hydro.

12% of wind produced electricity by 2020 (7,200 MW), currently 540 MW in operation.

COM approved the Solar generation plan targeting 3,500 MW by 2027.

Current Major P&M



in Industry Sector

By the end of 2007 two bounding forecasts for a national energy supply/demand scenarios were developed.

The scenarios were based on:An overall average 6-7% annual development rate.Supply of fossil based energy production will remain at the same level .A starting energy supply mix of around 2007/08:

94% from fossil fuel and NG5% hydro1% from wind and others

Energy supply/demand scenarios

IMC

By year 2022 other national resources become available:

The scenarios were based on:Wind energy grows, leading to about 20% contribution to electricity generation from renewable (hydro and wind).

Nuclear energy would contribute about 6%.

The energy supply mix around 2021/2022 becomes:

40 % from (20% fossil fuel and 20% NG)

8 % from energy efficiency implementations

9 % from renewable (2% hydro and 7% wind)

6 % from nuclear

37% additional energy is needed


IMC

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Samir Tantawi9

By year 2022 other national resources become available:

The scenarios were based on:Wind energy grows, leading to about 20% contribution to electricity generation from renewable (hydro and wind).

Nuclear energy would contribute about 6%.

The energy supply mix around 2021/2022 becomes:

61 % from (20% fossil fuel and 41 % NG)

8 % from energy efficiency implementations

9 % from renewable (2% hydro and 7% wind)

6 % from nuclear

Only 15 % additional energy is needed


IMC

Equivalent

National % Savings

Sector

potential % Savings

Current

(2010-2011) % use

End user sector

0.0551Agriculture & Irrigation

0.45153Gov. & Pub. Utilities

3.001520Residential & Commercial

4.501529Transportation

9.402047Industry17.7100All Sectors

Potential energy saving at end user level (2020)

IMC

Enhance mitigation in industry

Green incentives creation

Encouraging and facilitating more climate-conscious purchasing decisions by consumers

Adopting low-carbon production processes

Spearheading low-carbon growth investment and technological

Enhance mitigation in industry

Enhancing the knowledge and capabilities of industry

obtaining financial support

capacity building for Industry

create national networks for the exchange of data

and best practices

Encouraging energy efficiency and cost savings

identify high priority mitigation actions potential domestic barriers

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Potential for Emissions ReductionPotential for Emissions Reduction

Industry Current

Emissions

(Mt

CO2/yr)

Specific

Emissions

(t CO2/t

product)

Potential

Decrease in

Emissions

(t CO2/t

product)

Percent

Reductio

n

(%)

Reductio

n

(Mt

CO2/yr)

Cement 36.37 0.78 0.20 26% 9.30

Iron and

Steel

14.57 1.29 0.30 23% 3.40

Fertilizer

(Ammoni

a)

4.80 1.05 0.32 30% 1.44

Emissions by Sector (t COEmissions by Sector (t CO22//yr)yr)

Cement 65%

(36,364,943)

Iron and Steel

26%

(14,566,343)

Fertilizer 9%

(4,800,152)


in Transportation

Transportation SectorTransportation Sector-- BAUBAU

28 Mt CO2e (2005)

~12% of total Egypt emissions

72 Mt CO2e (2030)

~13% of total emissions

Light Duty Vehicles (LDV)

Medium Duty Vehicles (MDV)

<16 tons

Heavy Duty Vehicles (HDV)

>16 tons

~44%

~53%

~3%

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Transportation SectorTransportation Sector--StrategyStrategy

Others…

Increase transport safety measures and levels

Design the legal and institutional framework for implementation of the polices and measures

Design and implements measures for commercialization of services into the overall infrastructure network; and rehabilitation of road network;

Design transport master plans for each mode of transport

Design national policies for SD transport

LECB in Egypt

ArgentinaArgentina BhutanBhutan ChileChile ChinaChina ColombiaColombia

Costa RicaCosta Rica D.R.C.D.R.C. EcuadorEcuador EgyptEgypt GhanaGhana

IndonesiaIndonesia KenyaKenya LebanonLebanon MalaysiaMalaysia MexicoMexico

MoldovaMoldova MoroccoMorocco PeruPeru PhilippinesPhilippines TanzaniaTanzania

ThailandThailandTrinid &

Tob.Trinid &

Tob.UgandaUganda Vietnam Vietnam ZambiaZambia

List of participating countries

Europe/CISArab States LACAsiaAfricaPhase

EgyptArgentinaPhilippinesDRCPhase I

Morocco ChileChinaKenya

ColombiaUganda

Ecuador Zambia

Mexico

Peru

Moldova LebanonCosta Rica BhutanGhanaPhase II

Trinidad & Tob.IndonesiaTanzania

Malaysia

Thailand

Vietnam

13876Total

List of participating countries, Cont.

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Identify opportunities for NAMA

• NINOs [12]

• Energy + Trans. [8]

• Energy Eff. [4]

• NAMAs [6]

• Energy Eff. [3]

• RE [2]

• Trans. [1]

Design LEDS in the context of national

priorities

• A LEDS framework will be developed and shall be linked with sustainable development goals

Design MRV systems for proposed NAMAs

• MRV systems to be designed to support implementation and evaluation of associated NAMAs and LEDS

• national

• Int’al

Adoption of mitigation actions by

selected industries

• Mitigation projects[4]

• Cement

• Fertilizer

• Iron & Steel (tbd)

Project Outcomes

Project Objective

Increase capacities of Public Sector to design LEDS, NAMAs and MRV, and establishment of mitigation action plans and MRV systems in selected industries

Management Arrangements for Implementing the Project

National

Committee on

Climate Change

Ministry of State

for Environmental

Affairs

UNDP

Country Office

Project

Stakeholders

Representatives

Project

Steering

Committee

EEAA Climate Change

Central Department-

Head of the Dept.

(Project Director) &

the Mitigation

Manager

Project National

Coordinator

UNDP Project

Officer

Project Secretariat Project Management &

Secretariat

Technical Teams

Steering Committee Steering Committee Steering Committee Steering Committee (Proposal)(Proposal)(Proposal)(Proposal)

Environment

Electricity & Energy

Industry

Transport

Utility

Housing

Foreign Affairs

Planning

Petroleum

Agriculture

Civil Aviation

Interior

Finance

Challenges

NIS

Volatility of Carbon

Markets

Future of CDM & Carbon

Markets

Fund (GCF, Long

Term Finance, ..etc)

Capacities (institutional,

individual)

Technology Transfer

MRV (Domestic Criteria)

LEDS (sector specific)

P-P-P

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Samir Tantawi13

LECB

Others…?

IEE

EPAP

CPC

Integration with others

policies/strategies

capacity building

awareness

finance/technologies

LECB: Low Emission Capacity Building (UNDP+)

IEE: Industrial Energy Efficiency (UNIDO+)

EPAP: Egyptian Pollution Abatement Project (WB+)

CPC: Cleaner Production Center (UNIDO+)complete … not compete!

NAMAs

Domestic Supported Credited

Types

Principles

Voluntary reductionNot to replace Annex-

I commitments Firewall between NAMAs and CDM

Barriers

Financial Institutional Technical Information Capacity

NAMAsNAMA Steps

GIZ NAMA Tool, Ver8.6

February 16, 2014

Samir Tantawi14

Questions

Comments

Suggestions

Samir Tantawi, Ph.D.

LECB Project ManagerEgyptian Environmental Affairs Agency (EEAA)Ministry of State for Environmental Affairs (MSEA)United Nation Development Programme (UNDP)Mob.: +2 012 2 630 50 [email protected]

[email protected]

www.lecb-eg.org

february 16, 2014cairoclimatetalks.net/sites/default/files/dr samir tantawi eeaa.pdfdomestic climate...

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