fdis2000-howard 3g mobility

8/2/2019 Fdis2000-Howard 3G Mobility

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16/5/2000 Richard E. Howard

Access to the Global Internet:Which Technology Will Win?

Evolution

+ 3G builds on existing networks+ Huge volumes

+ Global spectrum

Separate network

Optimized for voice

Old technology

Revolution

+ IP networks+ Optimized air interfaces

+ Design for converged traffic

+ New technology for low cost

No global spectrum or approval

No market momentum

Timing?

For most of the world in 5 years(aside from North America and part of Europe):

Phone = Cell Phone

Internet = Wireless Internet


2/29


Industry Directions for Networking

Cellular Telecom Approach

Efforts to define wireless data networking standard(General Packet Radio Service - GPRS) begin before fullimpact of Internet explosion is felt

Internet-Based Approach Use Internet standards for networking and mobility with

extensions to interoperate with cellular air interfaces (e.g.,GPRS, CDMA2000)

GPRS standards

begin

1990 1995 2000

153M Internet

Users

1998

3M Internet

Users

1994

1992

FPLMTS

standards begin

1st GPRS

customers

Microsoft & AT&T still

competing with Internet


3/29


3G Mobility:The Evolutionary Route to Wireless Data

Paul Mankiewich and Rich Howard

Bell Labs, Lucent Technology


4/29


3G Cellular Systems:The Enabler of the Global Internet

Wireless Networksbecome the point of access

that funnels end user

experience into the

Internet

Wireless

Network

Internet

First Contact With the Internet for Most People in the World Will be Wireless


5/29 56/5/2000 Richard E. Howard

Integrated Wireless Services--The Vision

Wi-Fi (WaveLAN)

Radio Hub

Cable, xDSL, V9010/100-BaseT

Wireless LAN

Bluetooth

Wireless PAN

Multimedia &MessagingServer

integratedvoice and data

video postcards

in-call imageup/download

codec converter bandwidth manager store & forward playback

Content

GPRS/EDGE/

TDMABaseStation

UMTS/CDMA2000BaseStation

IP Network

Wireless Backbone and Gateways

LocationServices



Migration of Digital Cellular Systems

UMTS

GSM Circuit-Switched Voice

GPRS

GPRS: General Packet Radio Service(17.6 kbps x 8)

EDGE: Enhanced Data for GSM Evolution(59.2 kbps x 8)

UMTS: Universal Mobile Telecomm Systems

EDGE

IS-136 Circuit-Switched Voice

IS-136+

EDGE

Packet Voice & Dataover EDGE

Packet Voice & Dataover UMTS (WCDMA)

Circuit-SwitchedCircuit-Switched Voice

Packet-Switched DataPacket-Switched

CDMA2000

PacketData



Mobility Subscriber Projections:Analyst View

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200Ovum

Goldman Sachs

EMC

IDC

Herschel Shosteck

Merrill Lynch

Nokia Press Release

Ericsson Press Release

Lucent View

Ovum 283 363 433 500 562

Goldman Sachs 295 385 483

EMC 299 421 569 730 896 1049

IDC 257 325 396

Herschel Shosteck 298 405 519

Merrill Lynch 301 397 493 588 683 766 840 913

Nokia Press Release 10000

Ericsson Press Release 300 390 490 600 700 800

Lucent View 300.5 390.7 477.8 564.9 675.3 809.2 924.5 1041

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

5/99 Est

5/99 Est EMC

1.3B by 200



The Voice/Multimedia Revenue Gap($ Millions)

Source: International Data Corp, 1998/Level 3

Todays IP Market

Todays Voice Market9.4%=

Todays Voice Market

Switched Telephony 462,763

Fax 64,775

Total 527,538

Todays IP Market

Data Services 37,092

Internet Access 15,471

IP Telephony 1,890

IP VPN 419

Total 54,872


9/2996/5/2000 Richard E. Howard

Consumer Cocktail: DoCoMo I-mode

Service offered:- Security trading (2 traders)- Banking (31 banks)- Travel- Concert tickets- News- Network game- Total of 1300 I-mode web sites

Subscriber uptake:- Service Launch February 22, 1999- 20,000 in March- 100,000 in April- 90.000 new subscribers/week in August- August 99: 1.2 million subscribers (24 million DoCoMo users)- E-mail and mobile banking most popular



I Mode in Japan: 6M Subscribers in Under 1 Year(and the Rate is Increasing)

~140,000 newsubscribers/week

DoCoMo Website 6/1/2000



Wonder Swan

Hand-held Game DeviceSold 1.4 M units in Japan in one year

Email send and receive (SMTP)

Internet Access (mini-browser)

Remote download of mini-games


12/29


Applications and Network Capability Linked to Market Segment

Cost of Service is Clearly Low (10 Yen = 8 Cents)

High School Girls

10 YEN P-MailBusiness

ProfessionalValue Mail

Capability

Speed 64K

Wireless Data in the Japan Market

Market

Segment

H.S. Girl

Application

64K

Dating Connection


13/29


Mobility: Data vs Voice

Almost all traffic (and revenue) is voice

BUT, mobile data is growing much faster than voice

US is behind Europe and Japan

Japan is approaching 50% data traffic

Today systems are circuit switched and spectrally inefficient

2G systems => ~$600/hour for video or $60/hour for MP3 3G systems have

IP backbones

Lower cost per bit

Easy service creation

What will be the services? Who will pay the bills?


14/29


Migration of Digital Cellular Systems

UMTS

GSM Circuit-Switched Voice

GPRS

GPRS: General Packet Radio Service(17.6 kbps x 8)

EDGE: Enhanced Data for GSM Evolution(59.2 kbps x 8)

UMTS: Universal Mobile Telecomm Systems

EDGE

IS-136 Circuit-Switched Voice

IS-136+

EDGE

Packet Voice & Dataover EDGE

Packet Voice & Dataover UMTS (WCDMA)

Circuit-SwitchedCircuit-Switched Voice

Packet-Switched Data

Packet-Switched

CDMA2000

PacketData

M bilit S b ib P j ti b T h l


15/29


0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000UMTSGSM

TDMA (3G)

TDMA

cdma2000

cdmaOne

Analog

Other

UMTS 0 0 0 0 6745 14897 30641 56955

GSM 69653 12935 19285 25262 37672 45591 50086 53171

TDMA (3G) 0 0 0 0 140 885 2660 5445TDMA 6833 14343 23932 35560 65122 83438 10399 12685

cdma2000 0 0 0 0 1285 6000 15435 27519

cdmaOne 7109 20642 36216 56735 11130 14577 18394 22237

1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005

Mobility Subscriber Projections:by Technology

Lucent WNG View

Subscribers in Thousands

GSM

UMTS


16/29


3G Data Options

Wireless

Technology

Spectral

Bandwidth

Modeled

ThroughputPeak Data Rate

Expected Market

Introduction

3G-1X1.25 MHz for

Data100-180 Kbps

305 Kbps

(mobile)1H2001

(144Kbps peak rate)

HDR1.25 MHz for

Data400-600 Kbps

2.4 Mbps

(fixed/mobile)1H2002

EDGE Com act 1 MHz for Data 190-275 Kbps 384 Kbps(mobile) 1H2002

EDGE Classic2.7 MHz for

Data330-370 Kbps

384 Kbps

(mobile)1H2002

Wideband

CDMA-DS

5 MHz for

Voice/Data480-720 Kbps

2 Mbps (fixed)

384 Kbps

(mobile)

1H2001 (Japan)

1H2002 (Eur/NA)

Wideband

CDMA-3X5 MHz for Data 480-720 Kbps

2 Mbps (fixed)

384 Kbps

(mobile)

2H2002


17/29


The next generation architecture uses Internet based client-server platforms to enableuniversal services and reduce network cost structure.

Todays Wireless Networks

99% Mobile Voice

Circuit Derived

BaseStations

Next Generation Networks

PacketMode

ServersHigh Speed Data,

Multimedia, Voiceover IP, etc.

WirelessControlServers

Feature Control, Network

Management, Billing, etc

Universal Services - Voice or Data & Wireless or Wireline

Client/Server Model - Internet Derived (IP)

RadioClients

MSC

Internet / Advanced ServicesPSTN

CircuitMode

Servers

Voice, LSCircuit Data,

etc.

PSTN

NetworkServers

MobileSwitches

IP / ATM Core Network

Transition to Next Generation Networks


18/29


Services Rollout

Portal Link

Web access

Intranet

3G

1Q1999 4Q1999 4Q2000 4Q2001

WAP

launch

Mobile Office

Schedule Management

Work flow Management

Electronic Conference

File Sharing

Video

Multi-player

Games

Music

m-banking

Interactive TV

TV Conference

Information

Services

Radio

Visual, High

Speed

SMS

Picture clips

Route planning

Chat

Roomemail

GPRS

Video clips

Web cam

m-stock tradingm-cash


19/29


10

Ericsson

R320 WAP Phone

& MC218

Mobile Companion

Docomo

Pocketboard

QUALCOMM

pdQ smartphone

Motorola

StarTAC clipOn

Organizer NeoPoint1600 smartphone

Nokia

7110 phone &

9110 Communicator

Sharp

Zaurus

Bandai

WonderSwanSamsung MP3 Phone

The Devices are Awesome

Can 3G Deliver?:


20/29


Courtesy Gee Rittenhouse 3/7/00

Can 3G Deliver?:UMTS Capacity Estimates

Overall about 6x increase over IS-95 for voice

3x comes from bandwidth--5 MHz vs 1.25 MHz

2x from modulation, coherent detection, and signal processing tricks.

For user rates up to ~128 kbps (BER=~1e-4 )

1.8 Mb/sec total for all 3 sectors in 5 MHz of spectrum each way.

About 5.4 Mb/sec/basestation total for a 15 MHz up/15 MHz down license

=> ~42 users/basestation at 128 kbps Range ~2-3 Km => Can cover UK with about 10-20K basestations

Capacity for about 1% of the population at 128 kbps

Smart antennas can increase this by at least 4X

If 10% of the population wanted 128 kbps continuous (e.g. MP3)

~20-40K basestations with 4 antennas in a terminal

Reasonable flat-rate pricing possible

Will UMTS Happen?:


21/29


License Winner Price

A TIW UMTS (UK) Limited 4,384,700,000B Vodaphone Limited 5,964,000,000C BT (3G) Limited 4,030,100,000D One2One Personal Communications Limited 4,003,600,000E Orange 3G Limited 4,095,000,000

Will UMTS Happen?:Results of UK UMTS Spectrum Auction

~$34B says it will!

Rest of Europe by Fall


22/29


Backups


23/29


Multiple Access Schemes

CDMADifferent Languages

FDMADifferent Carriers

TDMADifferent Time Slots

FHSSOrthogonal Time Slots & Carriers

Enhanced Data for Global Evolution


24/29


(EDGE)

Defines an evolution of GSM and TDMA technologies to support high bit rate

circuit and packet data services Builds on GPRS (General Packet Radio Service) air interface and network

with adaptive modulation and coding

Uses 200 kHz bandwidth channels

Two versions of EDGE:

EDGE Classic enables full backwards

compatibility with current GSM (4/12 reuse)

EDGE Compact enables limited spectrum(< 1 MHz) deployments

Channel structure supports:

Peak throughputs up to 474 kbps

Average throughputs up to 384 kbps (up to

200 kbps for EDGE Compact with limitedspectrum deployments)


25/29


Wireless data network

Macrocellular data rates ~384 kbps (UMTS-FDD)

Minicellular data rates ~1 Mbps (UMTS-TDD) Picocellular data rates ~1-20 Mbps (Bluetooth, hyperLAN)

Increasing data rate, decreasing cell size

Macrocell-mobile

r~3-5 km

Minicell-mobiler~1 km

Picocell-pedestrianr~100 m

BLAST technology used in every one


26/29


Internet Volume Approaches Voice

1.E+00

1.E+01

1.E+02

1.E+03

1.E+04

1.E+05

1.E+06

1.E+07

1.E+08

1.E+09

1.E+10

1.E+11

1.E+12

1.E+13

1.E+14

Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00

B

i

t

s

/

s

e

c

Voice/Modem

Total Internet

WWW

New networks will need to be deployed as demands for data and interactiveservices approaches capacity of existing voice/data networks

Projected

Actual

Worldwide voice/modem traffic

Source: Internet Society

Projected Crossover

1999

Data=10xVoice

2000

Real Time Services Via GPRS & IP:


27/29


PSTN

IP/ATM Core Network

ANSI-41BackboneNetwork

PacketGateway5ESS

Switch To Data and VOIPGateways

SGSN GGSN

CircuitData IWF

Packet Voice (VOIP) startswith an IP Client in theterminal, the call modelresides in feature serverson the IP network.

Traditional Circuit voice is

supported as before.

IP Client in terminalfor Voice andpacket data

TraditionalCircuit voicesupported byMSC

7REFeatureServers

7REResourceServers

Customer

Care NMServers

PacketGateway

CallControlServers

MobManager

7RESignalingGateways

APsAPs

Phase 2 - VOIP Starting at Terminal

Use Todays Wireless Voice Infrastructure and Interconnect

with the Packet Core Network at a PSTN trunk level.

Enhanced Data for Global Evolution ( ti d)


28/29


(continued)

Handoff enabled through reselection procedures

Current work in ETSI to define VoIP and Real-Time services over EDGEin GSM Release 2000

Phase 1

Standards: Release 99

Large deployments start in 2002

Some initial deployments start in 2001

Supports best effort packet dataat speeds up to about 384 kbps

Phase 2

Standards: Release 2000

Large deployments start in 2003

Some initial deployments start in 2002

Will add Voice over IP capability


29/29


3G Solution Direction

One Network delivering Voice and Data services

Supporting all major 3G Technologies to enable operators to meet global market

needs IP Centric Network Architecture for Internet derived services

Future proof platform that evolves with the IP networking industry

Working with Sun to deliver next generation services with carrier grade reliability(99.999%)

Flexible Service Creation

Provides platform for integration of mobile and internet environments

Rapid service delivery for Lucent developed and third party services

Retain value in wireless network by creating operator controlled value addedinterfaces

Operators want to be more than an IP pipe provider

Rapid Network Deployment Easy to install and maintain

Self Optimizing

Integrated maintenance capabilities to reduce life cycle costs

fdis2000-howard 3g mobility

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