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On the Guardian today

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NewsWorld newsUS weather

Farmers' Almanac predicts

'bitter, frigid conditions' for US

winterPublication that correctly predicted the polar

vortex whilefederal forecasters got it wrong sayget ready for more snow and cold

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Associated Press in Lewiston, Maine

theguardian.com, Sunday 24 August 2014 12.07 EDT

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2/16

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Much of the US saw record cold temperatures in January. Photograph:

Andrew Burton/Getty Images

The folks at the Farmers Almanac can be forgiven for

feeling smug: the 198-year-old publication correctly

predicted the past nasty winter while federal

forecasters blew it.

Memories of the polar vortex and relentless

snowstorms wont soon be forgotten. And the editors of

the publication are predicting more of the same for thecoming season.

Shivery and shovelry are back. Were calling for some

frigid conditions, bitter conditions, said managing

editor Sandi Duncan.

The latest edition, which officially goes on sale this

week, forecasts colder-than-normal and wetter-than-usual weather for three-quarters of the country east of

Stage

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3/16

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47 comments

Libyan military plane crashes

The moment a Libyan military plane

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Danny Welbeck: 'I couldn't be any happier to

the Rocky Mountains. Drought-stricken California,

along with the Pacific Northwest, will see normal

precipitation and cool temperatures this winter, the

almanac said.

The publication, not to be confused with the New

Hampshire-based Old Farmers Almanac, uses a secret

formula based on sunspots, planetary positions and

lunar cycles for its long-range weather forecasts.

Modern science doesnt put much stock in the formula.

But even modern meteorologists can stumble on long-

term forecasts. The national Climate Prediction Center

forecast a strong likelihood of above-normaltemperatures from last November through January.

Not one of our better forecasts, Mike Halpert, the

Climate Prediction Centers acting director, said at the

time. Theres still no good explanation as to why the

polar vortex moved so deep into the US, he said.

Of the Farmers Almanac, he said, Good for them ifthey got it right last year, and Ill leave it at that.

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4/16

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The 2015 edition of the Farmers Almanac is seen in Lewiston, Maine.

Photograph: Robert F Bukaty/AP

The almanacs editor, Peter Geiger, can also gloat over

his Super Bowl forecast. The almanac forecast a

snowstorm February 1-3 in New Jersey. It was 49F at

the start of the Super Bowl on February 2, but a

snowstorm created havoc the following morning.

The almanac wasnt spot on everywhere: the pacific

northwest was wetter than expected, and California and

the southwest were drier than projected.

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5/16

What's this?

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More from the Guardian

The almanac also contains gardening tips, trivia, jokes

and natural remedies, like catnip as a pain reliever or

elderberry syrup as an immune booster, in this years

edition.

But its the weather prognostications that tend to grab

headlines.

The editors encourage readers to be prepared and

to make the best of it. When it snows you have two

choices: Shovel or make snow angels, Duncan

quipped.

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6/16


7/16

, .The back of him bears the rhyme:

When the weathers goodStack woodWhen the weathers badBe glad

No punctuation beyond the needles.

2 PEOPLE, 2 COMMENTS

mankinholes

What a complete load of bollocks. Let's just ignore the thousands of forecasts theygot completely wrong and, on a winning streak of, errr, 1, let's put all of our cash onthem getting to, errrr, 2 in a row.

For fuck sake is this the best the Guardian can do? Get out the divining rods and

ouija boards.

24 August 2014 8:28pm

9

Witness1 mankinholes

This comment was removed by a moderator because it didn't abide by ourcommunity standards. Replies may also be deleted. For more detail see ourFAQs.

25 August 2014 3:15pm


stephannoir

if i was america i would be more worried at the fast approaching economic winter.

17 trillion dollars national debt.what about 50 trillion dollars in unfunded liabilitiesat a very modest 4% america collapses economically .the wonky petro dollar astock market crash away.a drought of unimaginable proportions in westernamerica from mexico to to almost canadaa federal reserve with all the gold gonemissing in actiondisappearednot there.to china including the gold of so called

allies like germany.what... almost 50 million on food stamps..many of them pissedoff black americans...a fast disappearing middle classa unemployment rate ofwhat 24% if you include those who are no longer looking for a joba food inflation

24 August 2014 9:13pm

7
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8/16

Show 7 more replies Last reply: 25 August 2014 3:05pm

rate of 12% plus.and a 1% super rich pumping their wealth out of america at adizzying rate as taxes increasea useless catastrophic clueless president.and aforeign policy that is a tragic expensive joke iraq iran syria afghanstan libyapalestine india ecuador russia china all fantastic examples of the stunning success ofamerican foreign policy

and a very pissed off putin.who has the capability to do serious mischieflike buyphysical silver to collapse the paper silver american banks like short the dollarwhen it is vulnerablea fall from 81 to the disaster level of 68 is not that difficult todo....like persuade many pissed off countries to dump the petro dollarlets seechina india iran libya brazil south africa assortment of south american countriesecuador argentina venezuelawhat if putin manages to mortally wound americasfriends in the eu by giving the rapidly collapsing economies of greece italy andbulgariaa nasty shove...

.hah... a cold winter is the least of american worriessoon the economic winter isunavoidable thanks to compound interest..the local police are armed to the teethwith weapons of conventional war.for a very good reason.the american people...

Jeremiah Donaldson stephannoir

I am worried about all that, but wrong conversation for it.

24 August 2014 10:28pm 15

MidOff stephannoir


24 August 2014 11:17pm

ThePaSkeptic stephannoir

25 August 2014 12:18am

9

BrooklynNonHipster

24 August 2014 9:31pm
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9/16

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Jeremiah Donaldson

Matches what I seen in my area. The leaves started falling in July again like lastyear, so yeah, it'll be a bad winter. You don't need formulas, you just need to payattention to what's going on around you.

24 August 2014 10:28pm

14

LHChappel Jeremiah Donaldson

We've been raking maple leaves here in Western PA since mid-july, too.Brrrrr . . . bring it on, Mother Nature!

25 August 2014 4:57am

2

pfox33

The oldest joke in the book between mates when we used to report for duty in severetemps..."..no fucking black flies.."

That's Canada..six months of winter..then six months of poor sledding.

25 August 2014 12:01am

8


ThePaSkeptic

It has been a cooler than normal summer here in Penns Woods. Broadwing hawksare migrating a little earlier than normal. Could be a bad winter or maybe not. Don'tcare since I will be in Florida for the winter joining what seems to be a large part ofthe population of Quebec and Ontario.

25 August 2014 12:16am

5

CautiousOptimist ThePaSkeptic

25 August 2014 12:49am

12
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10/16


Please, from time to time, check the state of the turn indicator on your car.

:)

ThePaSkeptic CautiousOptimist

Turn indicator? What is that?

25 August 2014 1:01am

6

damute CautiousOptimist

25 August 2014 1:13am

4


RedPanda

I'd like someone at the Farmers Almanac to try to explain what effect "planetarypositions and lunar cycles" have on our weather.

If you read the Almanac, stick to the gardening tips. Their weather forecasts areshite. You may as well roll dice.

25 August 2014 12:52am

3

Richard Thorton RedPanda

Ignore him, he didn't read the article before commenting.

25 August 2014 10:10am

2

Witness1 RedPanda

You might try gardening. You might try reading the Almanac for several

years. You might try planting by the cycles of the moon like humans havebeen doing for thousands of years. The weather forecasts are uncannilyaccurate. If ou had been followin the Almanacs for nearl two decades as

25 August 2014 3:13pm

2
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11/16

we have done as avid vegetable gardeners you would be in awe of theiraccuracy on all counts.

damute

It was deep freeze last year from December to April in Toronto. Then like a lightswitch it was gone. I can deal with 4 months. For the rest of Canada and the mid-west old man lingered until mid-may in many places. Sorry guys. Anyway it comesCanadians don't get surprised.

25 August 2014 1:18am

5


alloleo

The publication...uses a secret formula based on sunspots, planetarypositions and lunar cycles for its long-range weather forecasts.

I thought it was based on how Old Man Thompson's rhumatiz' was actin' up.

25 August 2014 2:58am

7

RUTHLESSSNIPER alloleo

Don't knock it. My mother had a bad case of arthritis in her hands, and shecould accurately predict rain a couple of days in advance.

25 August 2014 12:30pm

1

Witness1 alloleo


25 August 2014 3:10pm


boscovee

25 August 2014 3:01am
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12/16

Have to guess a lot about the weather and what it will bring tomorrow, but for theprice of a book I will guess more and hope you buy it.

Witness1 boscovee


25 August 2014 3:09pm


NewWorldWatcher

To the American Hater's Comments. Sometimes it is better to keep your mouth shutand be thought of as a idiot than to open it and erase all doubt.

25 August 2014 3:15am

7

Witness1 NewWorldWatcher


25 August 2014 3:09pm

ID7861768

Bring on the snow !!!!!

25 August 2014 3:27am3


OnthePlains

I thought I was back on the Daily Mail site for a minute, quoting the Farmers Almanacas a "serious" weather prediction. Next it'll be Piers Corbyn and his crystal balls.

25 August 2014 3:39am

3
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13/16

Witness1 OnthePlains


25 August 2014 3:08pm

AyackoYamashita

if mr bo-jangles would resign it would cheer everything and everybody up a lot, I amsure

25 August 2014 7:19am

adirondackbill

When lived in the USA, I always found traditionally cold and snowy winters a goodtime for indoor and outdoor activities. Indoors, a period to catch up on reading,certain hobby projects and activities, etc. Outdoors, snow-shoeing, etc. I admit theoutdoor activities were of shorter duration, though.

25 August 2014 8:46am

2


Matt Perry

Hmmm, here in Georgia it's hot enough to melt your eyeballs. No sign of encroachingAutumn. Would certainly welcome a break in the humidity. As a native NewEnglander, I pine for the crisp days of Autumn - not this choking, subtropical heat.

25 August 2014 11:32am

1

consciouslyinformed Matt Perry

Me too. I was born and raised in New England, with the winter being my

favorite time of the year. We are now two years in Florida, ocean side. I hatethe climate here; I do not get the appeal of this place, and the weather isone of the worse climates, I'm which I have lived ( I call it being in the third

25 August 2014 1:29pm

1
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14/16


c rc e o e .

There is nothing like the beauty and the climate of New England. We arefinally leaving this hell. We are on our way to the Windy City, as myhusband's employment position requires us to move there by Nov. We wereinitially going back to New Hampshire, but his expertise will benefit thecompany more in mid west. At least the climate and culture will be muchimproved.However, it appears there is truth in "you can never go home again." Wehave never been able to go back to best area of the US - New England,

since we left when married forty-one years ago. Lived all over the US, butcannot get back to nirvana.

Matt Perry consciouslyinformed

the hardest part of being a New Englander is knowing that you're better thanthe rest of America. It's a hard truth.

Living through the heat and humidity of a Deep South summer is like having

some morbidly obese person trap your face in in armpit.

25 August 2014 2:32pm

1

consciouslyinformed Matt Perry

25 August 2014 3:09pm


decisivemoment

For the eastern two-thirds of the US, I'd have to say I'd agree with this forecast. ThePacific Ocean is so warm right now, right up into the Gulf of Alaska, that it prettymuch prevents the kind of zonal jet stream from west-to-east straight across thecountry that gives us mild winters east of the Rocky Mountains and high plains. It willbuckle way north again in order to curve around that very warm water as it marks theboundary between the warm and the cold, giving Alaska another year without winter,and when it buckles north it has to come back down again, providing the stable

supply of cold enough air to freeze the Great Lakes again. Whether there's enoughcold left in the high Arctic to provide us with as much cold air as last winter is anotherquestion. But it will be cold.

25 August 2014 12:46pm

3
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15/16

ataylorusa decisivemoment

@Decisiv....Jet stream from Pacific affecting High Plains weather in thewinter - since when? hahaha, what blather - I guess it's set to the tune of"over the river..", except it's "over the mountains and 'cross the

plains"...jeez! And I don't believe the Arctic "stores" cold weather during thesummer to provide anyone with cold air during the winter. I can see why youbelieve in this Almanac fantasy world.

25 August 2014 1:06pm

Witness1 ataylorusa


25 August 2014 3:05pm

decisivemoment ataylorusa

You are kidding me, right? Pretty much anything to our west affects ourweather. Occasionally things to our east, but not all that often. I take it you'refrom the US, so please, the next time your local TV meteorologist goes onabout "zonal flow" in the jet stream -- if, that is, we get any during the nextfew months -- that's one example of the Pacific Ocean affecting our weather.If you recall 1997-98, 98-99 and 99-00, that's pretty much all the jet stream

did in the Midwest, it went west to east, straight across the Pacific, straightover the mountains, straight at the Upper Midwest, rarely buckling or curvingto pick up Arctic air, and we had very, very mild and dry winters those threeyears. The Pacific Ocean most of that period was hot equatorially, coldnorth. Right now, it's warm all the way up, as it has been the last year atleast. That's not a condition that helps "zonal flow", because the jet will try tofollow the boundary between warm and cold. If the ocean is warm all theway to Alaska, that boundary is southern Alaska, then down the Rockies,and southeast towards the eastern US. And what do you suppose it bringswith it under those circumstances? Think last winter.

That's the Pacific affecting our weather. All the time.

For once, the Farmer's Almanac is doing something logical . . . . looking atocean temperatures and making an educated guess as to what they'll do to

26 August 2014 2:18am
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16/16

;

Comments for this discussion are now closed.

anyone w o s ownw n w t n a out , m es o t at ocean. a es anice change from a dowsing rod, at least.


meltyman

So has anyone calculated the proportion of times the Almanac got it wrong over thelast 198 years? Even a broken (analog) clock is right twice a day.

25 August 2014 1:18pm

Witness1 meltyman

If you were a gardener, especially a food gardener you'd know the answer.

25 August 2014 3:05pm

Rochelle60

Last winter was brutal here in the Mid-Atlantic US, really cold with constant snowfall.The preceding milder winters were pleasant yet disturbing and unnatural, plus theyseem to make for a hotter summer.

This summer's been unusually kind, temperatures below 90 and relatively lowhumidity. You can actually go outside. Usually you're relegated to the air-conditionedhouse, car, and office. The wet heat is so pleasant. I think I go outside more in winterthan in summer. So if a nasty winter means a civilized summer, bring on the cold!.

25 August 2014 1:23pm

2

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