far limited (far) - bell potter 19 october 2015

8/19/2019 Far Limited (Far) - Bell Potter 19 October 2015

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19 October 2015

FAR Limited (FAR)

Appraisal drilling program about to start

Recommendation

Buy (unchanged) Price

$0.094Valuation

$0.28 (previously $0.26)RiskSpeculative

Analyst

Peter Arden 613 9235 1833

AuthorisationDavid Coates 612 8224 2887

Expected Return

Capital growth 198%

Dividend yield 0%

Total expected return 198%

Company Data & Ratios

Enterprise value $260m

Market cap $304m

Issued capital 3,193.3mFree float 72%

Avg. daily val. (52wk) $1.1m

12 month price range $0.056 - $0.145

GICS sector

Energy

Price Performance

BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED ACN 25 006 390 7721 AFSL 243480

DISCLAIMER AND DISCLOSURES THIS REPORT MUST BE READ WITH THE DISCLAIMER AND DISCLOSURESON PAGE 12 THAT FORM PART OF IT. DISCLOSURE: BELL POTTER SECURITIES ACTED AS LEAD MANAGERFOR THE $46.7M PLACEMENT IN OCTOBER 2014 AND RECEIVED FEES FOR THAT SERVICE.

Page 1

(1m) (3m) (12m)

Price (A$) 0 .08 0.08 0.13

Absolute (%) 14.6 17.5 -27.7

Rel market (%) 9.6 22.9 -29.0

SpeculativeSee key risks on page 2.

Speculative securities may not besuitable for Retail clients.

First appraisal well of SNE oil field to spud in a few weeks

After making two outstanding oil discoveries including the largest oil discovery in 2014

in the SNE-1 well in offshore Senegal, the joint venture (JV) partners (Cairn Energy,

40% and Operator; ConocoPhillips, 35%; FAR, 15%; and Petrosen, 10%) are about to

start an exciting appraisal drilling program. The appraisal program is aiming to achieve

a declaration of commerciality by proving the discovery meets the minimum economic

field size (MEFS), believed to be around 200 million barrels (Mbbs) of oil reserves.

Given the field has already been assessed as having a 1C Resource of 150Mbbls and

a 2C Resource of 330 Mbbls, the appraisal and associated exploration program is

seen as a low risk one with considerable scope to show that the field is significantly

larger than the MEFS, particularly if the highly rated overlying Bellatrix Prospect comes

in at close to its best estimate of 168Mbbls of unrisked potential resources.

ConocoPhillips is managing the appraisal drilling program using one of the most

modern and efficient deep sea drilling rigs that has been contracted on favourable

market terms reflecting the significant reduction in rig rates from the industry downturn.

Building on its major offshore Senegal successes

After its major discoveries in offshore Senegal, the JV has reprocessed its existing

seismic and is also shooting additional detailed seismic. This new seismic is designed

to firm up the definition of the SNE field and to provide data in the north and east parts

of the JV permits along trend from existing mapped prospects. In its own right, FAR

has secured an option on a new offshore area to the north-east of the SNE field.

FAR’s Senegal discoveries still attractive at low oil prices

Despite the fall in oil prices, the quality of FAR’s two very significant oil discoveries in

offshore Senegal and the significant reduction in capital and operating costs for oil

drilling and development means these discoveries are still economically attractive,

particularly SNE. The development of the SNE field is likely to be done via a hub

arrangement that Cairn estimates to still be economically attractive at oil prices around

US$50/bbl while yielding IRRs in the low 20s% and which may tie in the FAN-1 field.

Investment thesis – Valuation $0.28/sh (previously $0.26/sh)

FAR is largely funded for the exciting and cost-effective upcoming appraisal drilling

program in offshore Senegal, benefiting from lower drilling costs and assistance of

arguably the world’s leading independent E & P company (ConocoPhillips).

We see the upcoming appraisal and exploration program around the SNE-1 discovery

as most exciting because it’s a relatively low risk program and it has the potential to

add significant value to the SNE field by not just confirming the characteristics and

quality of the discovery, but by increasing its size significantly. We have changed our

valuation methodology to our usual 12-month forward looking NPV basis and in the

process we have increased our valuation of FAR by 8% to $0.28 per share from using

a higher current share price for dilution to allow for a possible equity raising.

Our Speculative Buy recommendation is retained.

Absolute Price

SOURCE: IRESS

$0.00

$0.02

$0.04

$0.06

$0.08

$0.10

$0.12

$0.14

$0.16

Oct 13 Apr 14 Oct 14 Apr 15 Oct 15

FAR S&P 300 Rebased


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FAR Limited (FAR) 19 October 2015

Risks of investment

The risks of investment include, but are not limited to:

1. Exploration success: The early stage nature of FAR’s activities makes its exploration

in frontier areas very high risk. Even after having made two very significant discoveries

in a new frontier area as FAR has done in offshore Senegal, and demonstrating that

there is greatly increased prospectivity in the whole area now, the appraisal and

exploration of the finds and of highly rated targets in nearby areas or prospects remains

high risk until adequate exploration, appraisal and ultimately production has been

carried out to effectively de-risk an area.

2. Oil price and exchange rate risk: International oil and gas prices and foreign

exchange rates are affected by various economic and geopolitical factors that make

them volatile and liable to relatively sudden change. The oil and gas prices and foreign

exchange rates that apply to any of FAR’s projects may be different from our forecasts. 3. Production risk: In frontier areas such as those where FAR often operates, there have

often been few wells drilled and there may have been little or no hydrocarbon

production in the region previously or currently to indicate how reservoirs behave in a

production regime. Until reliable production data is established for an area, there is a

risk that various production aspects may adversely impact on commerciality.

4. Political risk: FAR operates in a number of countries where there may be relatively

heightened political risk from time to time. In Africa, where FAR has had quite a long

experience of operating, the company generally only operates in countries that are

relatively stable politically. Senegal has had a form of democracy for about 197 years

while Kenya has had a strong system of parliamentary democracy since independence

over 50 years ago. FAR always ensures it engages with and strongly supports thecommunities in which it operates, even if it is only a minority partner in a joint venture.

5. Funding risk: The company has been extremely successful at farming out the high risk

early stage drilling in its frontier African hydrocarbon prospects. This has seen FAR

largely free-carried through that high risk stage and it has often also included FAR

receiving cash payments as reimbursement of its earlier exploration costs. By its

nature, the exploration activities of FAR are expensive and the company needs to

ensure that it has adequate funding to maintain its interests and is able to fund its share

of what are sometimes more expensive exploration wells because of unexpected

drilling or other complications.

6. Inappropriate acquisitions: The acquisition of other assets can divert management

effort from the current focus and may yield inadequate returns.

Other significant risks include regulatory, environmental and commercial ones, which are

typical for natural resource projects. These aspects are usually well understood and readily

managed by the competent and well experienced operators of the joint ventures in which

FAR is a participant, with FAR also providing input and advice as appropriate.


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About to see just how big SNE really is

Appraisal of SNE field should show its development potential

Appraisal drilling is about to start on the world’s largest oil discovery in 2014 (as ranked by

IHS CERA), the SNE-1 discovery in offshore Senegal. The drill ship Athena has been

contracted for the three well drilling program and has mobilised from Angola. The drill ship

is a state of the art, 7th

generation one that has been contracted from ConocoPhillips (who

have it under long term contract) at significantly less than its previous rates, reflecting the

softer market conditions currently. The ConocoPhillips drilling organisation will play a key

role in project managing the drilling program. The drilling program comprises two appraisal

wells (SNE-2 and SNE-3) and an exploration well at the Bellatrix Prospect (BEL-1), which

will also double as an appraisal of the northern part of the SNE field (Figures 2 and 3).

The appraisal program is aiming to achieve a declaration of commerciality by confirming

volumes, connectivity and productivity and proving the discovery meets the MEFS,believed to be around 200Mbbs of oil reserves. The drilling program is also designed to

test the upside in the SNE field, where the 3C resource is 670Mbbls of oil on a gross,

unrisked prospective basis (100%). The discovery well, SNE-1, was drilled to find oil, not

determine the field size and not all sands intersected in the well were tested. The current

estimates for the size of SNE field are considerably larger than the pre-drill estimates and it

is likely that the appraisal drilling program could further increase the field size. The

appraisal drilling program is estimated to cost about US$200m, depending on the amount

of testing, (FAR share is estimated to be about US$33.3m or A$45.9m) and will involve all

wells being logged, cored and flow tested and is expected to be completed by May 2016.

Figure 1 – Section showing potential extent of SNE discovery Figure 2 – Map of likely drilling locations for 3 well program

SOURCE: FAR LTD SOURCE: FAR LTD NOTE: *REFER FAR ANNOUNCEMENT 13 APRIL 2015; BEST ESTIMATE, GROSSUNRISKED, PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES 100% BASIS, OIL ONLY

Figure 3 - Seismic section (N-S) showing proposed locations and paths of SNE appraisal wells

SOURCE: FAR LTD NOTE: RED = GAS; GREEN = OIL; YELLOW = UNTESTED SANDS


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Operator estimates SNE field can have robust economics

Despite the fall in world oil prices, the Operator of the JV, Cairn Energy (Cairn) has

estimated that the potential economics for the SNE field are still attractive (Figure 4), given

the fall in drilling and operating costs in the petroleum exploration and development

industry over the past year. Underlying the economics of the JV’s offshore Senegal blocks

is very good Petroleum Sharing Contract (PSC) terms with the Government of Senegal.

Figure 4 – Indicative potential SNE economics at different oil price and cost scenarios

SOURCE: FAR LTD

Cairn’s preliminary development concept for the SNE field involves a standalone floating

production, storage and offtake vessel (FPSO) with expansion capacity for satellite tie-backs. Production is expected to involve subsea methods incorporating gas and water

injection wells to deliver a plateau production rate of about 50,000 to 100,000 barrels of oil

per day (bopd) although we understand initial production rates are likely to be above

100,000bopd. While the FAN-1 discovery may be developed as a standalone field, Cairn’s

current thinking is that it would be developed as a tie-back to the SNE field (Figure 5).

Figure 5 - Schematic representation of development and tie-back production concept for offshore Senegal

SOURCE: FAR LTD


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Target at Bellatrix means exploration well is a two-for-one deal

The Bellatrix Prospect overlies the northern extent of the SNE field (Figure 6). The

proposed exploration well to test Bellatrix, BEL-1, is planned with two objectives. The

upper part of the hole will test the Bellatrix structure and then it will be continued on as an

appraisal of the northern extent of the SNE field.

Figure 6 - Cross section showing the location of the SNE field and the nearby shelf edge targets

SOURCE: FAR LTD

Other shelf edge targets now represent enhanced opportunities

With the discovery of the SNE field, the shelf edge of the JV area was recognised as being

very prospective for additional oil deposits. The JV has identified at least six significant

shelf edge prospects with combined unrisked best estimate potential resources of

765Mbbls (on 100% basis) (Table 1). The JV has commenced a 3D seismic survey over

its three permits in offshore Senegal (Figure 7) to acquire data in the north and east of the

permits along trend from the existing mapped prospects where there is currently no 3D

seismic data coverage. The seismic survey will also assist with the delineation of the

existing SNE discovery with a proposed swath (shown in red in Figure 7) over it.

Table 1 - JV undrilled inventory in Offshore Senegal Figure 7 - Map of new 3D seismic survey area

SOURCE: FAR LTD NOTE: *REFER TO FAR ANNOUNCEMENT 13 APRIL 2015; BEST ESTIMATE, FAR LTDGROSS UNRISKED, PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES 100% BASIS, OIL ONLY


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FAR increases its exposure in offshore Senegal

FAR has entered into a farm-in option with Trace Atlantic Oil Ltd (Trace) for the Djiffere

block, located adjacent to the three its three permits, Rufisque, Sangomar and Sangomar

Deep (RSSD) that are currently the subject of its JV with Cairn Energy and ConocoPhillips

(Figure 8). The Djiffere block covers an area of 4,459km2 in offshore Central Senegal

where water depths are between 10m and 250m but are predominantly less than 100m.

The new acreage gives FAR increased exposure to the shelf trend prospectivity confirmed

by the SNE discovery. The western part of the Djiffere block is located along geological

trend with shelf play types identified in the eastern part of the RSSD blocks. FAR has

identified a number of potential shelf structures within the Djiffere block from existing 2D

seismic data, with one lead already estimated by FAR to have potential to contain in

excess 100Mbbls of unrisked prospective resources. The Djiffere block, being in shallow

water, is expected to be suitable for low cost drilling and near term development projects.

FAR has awarded a contract for a 3D survey over 400km2 in the north-west corner of the

Djiffere Block (shown in Figure 8 in red hatching) to enable it to better evaluate the shelf

trend potential within the Djiffere block. This new 3D seismic survey will be completed atthe end of 2015 as an extension to the 3D survey of the RSSD blocks at a cost estimated

by FAR to be about $US1.1m.

Figure 8 - Map of Djiffere Block in offshore Senegal

SOURCE: FAR LTD


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Valuation: NPV based estimate lifted 8% to $0.28/sh

We have adjusted our valuations to reflect recent progress and revised risk assessments

for the offshore Senegal developments, which includes incorporating the impact of reduceddrilling and operating costs. Our per share valuations have also changed from

incorporating less dilution from the assumed equity to be raised from using the higher

current share price compared to what was used previously. We have changed our

valuation methodology to our usual 12-month forward valuation that is based on risked

NPV-based valuations for the SNE and FAN fields.

We have increased our valuation of FAR by 8% to $0.28 per share from these factors and

changes.

Table 2 - Summary of risk-weighted NPV-based valuations of FAR

Now +12 months +24 months

A$m$ per share2,3

A$m$ per share2,3 A$m $ per share2,3

Exploration Assets – Senegal1 765 0.20 851 0.22 946 0.24

- Kenya 151 0.04 151 0.04 151 0.04

- Guinea Bissau 18 0.01 18 0.01 18 0.01

- Australia 16 0.00 16 0.00 16 0.00

- Total 950 0.24 1,035 0.27 1,130 0.29

Net Financials4 66 0.02 66 0.02 66 0.02

Total 1,016 0.26 1,102 0.28 1,197 0.31

SOURCE: BELL POTTER SECURITIES ESTIMATES NOTES: 1. BASED ON 13.7% INTEREST ASSUMING PETROSEN BACK-IN AT 18%2. USING DILUTED CAPITAL OF 3,892.2M SHARES;3. MAY NOT ADD BECAUSE OF ROUNDING AND/OR DILUTION EFFECTS.4. INCLUDES CORPORATE COSTS AND FORECAST ADDITIONAL EQUITY.

For its Senegal assets, we have taken FAR’s interest as 13.7% on the basis that we have

assumed FAR’s interest is reduced to that level on the basis that Petrosen will increase its

interest to 18% at the time of the development decision. Currently Petrosen has a free-

carried 10% interest.

Market didn’t ever fully acknowledge significance of FAR’sSenegal discoveries

We estimate the 12-month forward value of FAR’s offshore Senegal interests at $851m or

$0.22 per share to FAR after allowing for Petrosen, the state oil company of Senegal, to

back-in to a level of 18% given the potential size and status of the discoveries, even

though that would be a very major step for Petrosen to take. FAR’s Senegal interests are

the major component of our risked valuation for the whole of FAR of $0.28 per share.

Currently, the Australian market is deeply discounting the value of FAR’s Senegal oil

discoveries. We do not believe FAR ever received full recognition for the size and qualityof its two offshore Senegal discoveries in 2014 for several reasons including:

The rapidly falling world oil price at the end of 2014 completely overrode the orderly

market assessment of the FAN-1 discovery and particularly the SNE-1 discovery;

Concern over the time to first oil – except for the very rushed development by Tullow of

the Jubilee field in offshore Ghana (which is now beginning to be seen as having been

premature as further discoveries are made nearby, requiring duplication of services

rather than right-sizing of a more delayed development), the average development time

for major oil developments in West Africa over the past 20 years is 7 – 10 years so the

JV proposal for first oil in 5 – 7 years represents a relatively rapid development that

allows for sensible exploration of the highly prospective nearby prospects and leads;

and

There was no announcement on an increase to the initial estimate for the size of the

SNE discovery following reprocessing of the seismic data. Because the initial estimate


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for the SNE field was larger than the pre-drill estimate, it was generally expected that

the seismic reprocessing and well data could lead to an increase in its size.

FAR needs to be well-funded to maximise the likely value of

upcoming appraisal and exploration programs

FAR had cash of $43.6m at 30 June 2015 and had expected to spend about $11m on

exploration and evaluation in the September 2015 quarter. FAR had been hoping to

increase its cash balance through a farm-out of some of its Kenyan exploration assets but

delays to the planned programs there has made this less likely to occur now in the near

term.

We estimate that FAR could need to raise a net amount of about $50m over the next six

months or so to ensure that it is adequately funded going into the planned appraisal and

exploration program for offshore Senegal involving three firm wells at this stage. We

believe it is very important for FAR to be adequately funded for the planned appraisal and

exploration program in case the scope of the program is increased at short notice by the

JV’s two large petroleum companies.

We have conservatively assumed that FAR raises about $50m (net) at the current share

price (Table 3) even though the current share price is at a significant discount to our risk-

weighted valuation of FAR. There could be favourable outcomes from the upcoming

appraisal and exploration program in offshore Senegal that may lead to a share price re-

rating by the time the capital is actually sought.

Table 3 - Forecast additional equity to be raised in the next year

Year to December 2016e

Net amount to be raised1 ($ M) 50

Share price assumed ($) 0.094

Number of shares to be issued (M) 568.9

Total number of shares on issue at year end(M) 3,762.2

SOURCE: BELL POTTER SECURITIES ESTIMATES NOTE 1. AFTER CAPITAL RAISING COSTS

FAR likely to remain exploration focussed but is likely toremain an active participant in current offshore Senegal JV

FAR has successfully demonstrated its ability as an explorer. The company has a strong

track record of identifying new frontier exploration plays, particularly in various parts of

Africa, completing initial exploration to define attractive targets (such as by carrying out

detailed seismic surveys), and then attracting major E & P partners to fund the early stage

high risk exploration drilling. While we expect FAR to retain its exploration focus, weexpect the company will remain in the current offshore Senegal JV as there is still a

considerable amount of value to be added by the upcoming appraisal and exploration

programs and future exploration and appraisal programs as the JV seeks to define the full

significance of the two discoveries there and to explore for similar additional oil discoveries

in the highly prospective nearby areas.

In the longer term, we expect FAR to have a strong focus on Senegal and northwest Africa

following the two exceptional discoveries it has made there and the advantages it has

gained into the geology of the region in the course of its involvement there.


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Oil price showing signs of stabilizing

After having briefly shown signs of heading towards US$40/bbl in late August (Figure 9),

the world oil price (Brent) is showing signs of stabilizing at around US$50/bbl as the growthin global inventories continues but seems to be doing so at a slower rate than earlier in

2015. While we are yet to see any significant cut-back in OPEC’s overall production rate

or more particularly in the production rate of the largest OPEC producer, Saudi Arabia, and

second largest producer, Iraq.

Figure 9 - Chart of Brent oil price (US$/bbl)

SOURCE: IRESS

Weaker US Dollar helping to lift oil prices

The recent relative weakness in the US Dollar has been a contributing factor in the

rebound in the oil price. A series of weak economic data releases in the USA has cast

some further doubt on the likelihood and timing of the expected interest rate rise in the

USA, previously expected in mid-2015 but now expected to be considerably later at least

and potentially not until 2016. Meanwhile, there is growing evidence of a significant

reduction in oilfield activity in the major US oil producing basins. There is a growing

expectation that there will now a slight reduction in shale oil production over the next year

because it is sensitive to the oil price and from a physical perspective the nation has simplybeen running out of oil storage capacity in the face of the large USA oil inventories.

Oil prices likely to remain volatile, driven by stockpiles and interest rates

With continuing strong USA and Middle East oil production in the face of sluggish global

economic performance, particularly by major European economies, oil prices are likely to

stabilise at around the currently modestly improved levels but to remain volatile and

vulnerable to further weakness in the short term. In the short to medium term, however, a

slight decrease in the level of USA oil production rate is expected to occur as higher cost

wells are shut in and the amount of new production is very muted at current oil prices. We

still expect that in the medium to longer term any resumption in the growth of USA shale oil

production is likely to be more than matched by increasing global demand as economic

growth finally improves, leading ultimately to sustainably higher oil prices.


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FAR Limited (FAR)

Company Description

FAR is a petroleum exploration company with principal interests in offshore East and West

Africa, where it has recently participated in two major oil discovery through its 15% interest

in the FAN-1 and SNE-1 wells in offshore Senegal. The SNE-1 discovery was the largest

oil find made in 2014 and it is now the subject of an appraisal and exploration program

designed to FAR has significant interests in large and mostly offshore African exploration

permits in Senegal, Kenya and Guinea-Bissau. FAR also has exploration interests in the

north-west of Western Australia, having 100% of two offshore permits in the Dampier Sub

Basin.

Investment thesis – Valuation increased by 8% to $0.28/sh (previously $0.26/sh)

FAR is largely funded for the exciting and cost-effective upcoming appraisal drilling

program in offshore Senegal, benefiting from lower drilling costs and assistance of

arguably the world’s leading independent E & P company (ConocoPhillips).

We see the upcoming appraisal and exploration program around the SNE-1 discovery as

most exciting because it’s a relatively low risk program and it has the potential to add

significant value to the SNE field by not just confirming the characteristics and quality of the

discovery, but by increasing its size significantly. We have changed our valuation

methodology to our usual 12-month forward looking NPV basis and in the process we have

increased our valuation of FAR by 8% to $0.28 per share from using a higher current share

price for dilution to allow for a possible equity raising.

Our Speculative Buy recommendation is retained.

Valuation: 12-month forward sum-of-the-parts is $0.28/sh: Our overall valuation of FARis based on risk-weighted sum-of-the parts estimated valuations for each of the main

exploration assets of which the principal ones are the risk-weighted DCF-based valuations

of the FAN-1 and SNE-1 oil discoveries in offshore Senegal. We have assumed an

appraisal program of at least three wells along with up to three exploration wells is carried

out on and in the vicinity of the SNE-1 discovery prior to development that is forecast to

lead to initial oil production in about 2021.

Risks

The key risks include the following:

7. Exploration success: The early stage nature of FAR’s activities makes its explorationin frontier areas very high risk. Even after having made two very significant discoveries

in a new frontier area as FAR has done in offshore Senegal, and demonstrating that

there is greatly increased prospectivity in the whole area now, the exploration of nearby

areas or prospects remains high risk until adequate exploration, appraisal and

ultimately production has been carried out to effectively de-risk an area.

8. Oil price and exchange rate risk: International oil and gas prices and foreign

exchange rates are affected by various economic and geopolitical factors that make

them volatile and liable to relatively sudden change. The oil and gas prices and foreign

exchange rates that apply to any of FAR’s projects may be different from our forecasts.

9. Production risk: In frontier areas such as those where FAR often operates, there have

often been few wells drilled and there may have been little or no hydrocarbon

production in the region previously or currently to indicate how reservoirs behave in a


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Page 11


production regime. Until reliable production data is established for an area, there is a

risk that various production aspects may adversely impact on commerciality.

10. Political risk: FAR operates in a number of countries where there may be relatively

heightened political risk from time to time. In Africa, FAR generally only operates in

countries that are relatively stable politically. Senegal has had a form of democracy forabout 196 years while Kenya has had a strong system of parliamentary democracy

since independence over 50 years ago. FAR always ensures it engages with and

strongly supports the communities in which it operates, even if it only a minority partner

in a joint venture.

11. Funding risk: The company has been extremely successful at farming out the high risk

early stage drilling in its frontier African hydrocarbon prospects. This has seen FAR

largely free-carried through that high risk stage and it has often also included FAR

receiving cash payments as reimbursement of its earlier exploration costs. By its

nature, the exploration activities of FAR are expensive and the company needs to

ensure that it has adequate funding to maintain its interests and is able to fund its share

of what are sometimes more expensive exploration wells because of unexpecteddrilling or other complications.

12. Inappropriate acquisitions: The acquisition of other assets can divert management

effort from the current focus and may yield inadequate returns.

Other significant risks include regulatory, environmental and commercial ones, which are

typical for natural resource projects. These aspects are usually well understood and readily

managed by the competent and well experienced operators of the joint ventures in which

FAR is a participant, with FAR also providing input and advice as appropriate.


12/12


Bell Potter Securities Limited ACN 25 006 390 7721

Level 38, Aurora Place88 Phillip Street, Sydney 2000

Telephone +61 2 9255 7200www.bellpotter.com.au

Recommendation structure

Buy: Expect >15% total return on a

12 month view. For stocks regarded

as ‘Speculative’ a return of >30% isexpected.

Hold: Expect total return between -5%

and 15% on a 12 month view

Sell: Expect

far limited (far) - bell potter 19 october 2015

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