Family policies in an ageing society. France

Seminar on Policies Responding to Low FertilitySharing Korean and European Experiences

Julien DamonAssociate Professor, Sciences-Po (Paris)www.julien-damon.comOctober 26th 2009, KIHASA, Seoul

Population (thousands)Constant-fertility variant - 1950-2050Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision,n

Total fertility (children per woman)Medium variant - 1950-2050Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision,n

Population aged 65+ (%) Medium variant - 1950-2050Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision,n

Support to fertility- Protect the family (preserve the traditional model)- Protect the children (support for their education)- Struggle against inequality and poverty- Support to the work-family balance- Promote gender equalityThe many objectives of the French familiy policy

Public spending on family benefits in cash, services and tax measures, in per cent of GDP, 2005Source : OECD

French social policiesThe Post-War Management SchemeOptional and compulsory protectionMutual associations, insurance companies, contingency fund organizations1945 goal: progressive reduction of the need for contingency mechanismsNeeds-based risk coveragePrincipally financed through taxationMainly vertical redistribution1945 goal: assistance expected to become residualRisk coverage for social assistance beneficiariesPrincipally financed through contributionsMainly horizontal redistributionDivided into different programs1945 goal: universalityThe various social insurance programs provide four-fifths of the benefits

French social policies have met many of the goals they were designed to achieve...

providing coverage for the whole populationachieving one of the highest fertility rates in the Western worldsignificantly improving the overall health of the populationfulfilling a role as an effective, Keynesian-inspired, economic stabilizerreducing poverty, particularly among seniors

Bird's-eye View (1)

... they have, however, been hindered by substantial difficulties arising from economic and social change

persistently high unemployment, resulting in lost revenue and increased social expenditures structural deficits that create a burden for future generationsaging populationpoor, insufficient, or incomplete coverage of new risks (dependency in old age, exclusion, immigrant integration, etc.)changes to the family structure that challenge the male breadwinner concept

Bird's-eye View (2)

The Structure of Social Risk ManagementFour social risks...Occupational injuriesOld ageIllnessFamily... that grew to eleven!MaternityUnemploymentWork transitionsSurvivorsDisabilityHousingPoverty

But what does it mean? These are the Social Security branches established in 1945Accounting terms used to describe social assistance benefitsThe French debate concerns the creation of a fifth risk... A highly ambiguous situationFour social risks...Occupational injuriesOld ageIllnessFamily... that grew to eleven!MaternityUnemploymentWork transitionsSurvivorsDisabilityHousingPoverty

How will Retirement and Family Risks evolve?Dependency or early childhood?Number of day care spaces per 100 children under 3 years of ageFinancing requirements of old age insurance plans (billions of Euros)

Graph4

4.2

15.1

24.8

47.1

63.4

68.8

dpenses sociales publiques

Sources : Eurostat-SESPROS et OCDE

2003 (dernires donnes accessibles pour comparaison hors UE)

Dont dpenses sociales publiques

Chine5.8

Irlande15.6

USA18.9

Espagne19.6

Japon19.7

Roy Uni22.8

UE-2525.8

Sude29.2

Allemagne29.5

France29.8

dpenses sociales publiques

5.8

15.6

18.9

19.6

19.7

22.8

25.8

29.2

29.5

29.8

Rpartition par risque

G02 : Rpartition par risque des prestations de protection sociale en 2006 (en % du PIB et en structure)

Prestations en structurePrestations en % de PIB

Maladie28.5%8.4%

Vieillesse38.0%1.5%

Accidents du travail1.6%0.5%

Invalidit5.1%11.2%

Survie6.7%2.0%

Maternit1.2%0.4%

Famille7.9%2.3%

Insertion0.4%0.1%

Chmage6.4%1.9%

Logement2.7%0.8%

Pauvret-exclusion1.5%0.5%

Sources Drees, comptes de la protection sociale

Satisfaction

Satisfaction modle social

Pays%

BG32

LV36

EL38

PL44

LT45

RO46Satisfaction modle social

EE46Pays%

IT46Bulg32

PT47Pol44

SK53Italie46

IE54Port47

HU56Hong56

CY59UE 2566

EU 2566Esp69

SI69All69

ES69Finl70

DE69Sude72

FI70UK78

SE72France82

CZ76Danm86

MT77Belg90

UK78

NL81

FR82

LU86

DK86

AT87

BE90

Satisfaction

32

44

46

47

56

66

69

69

70

72

78

82

86

90

retraites

200620152020203020402050

41525476369

retraites

0

0

0

0

0

0

dette sociale

199019931996199920032006

0.82.43.43.346.8

MBD0161375C.xls

Graph3

0.28537663740.083794169

0.38032456360.014843025

0.01608322440.0047224624

0.05055068420.1116734048

0.06668211960.0195796434

0.01209738250.0035521132

0.0788112660.0231410833

0.00421676830.0012381553

0.06391948850.0187684615

0.02655451180.0077971108

0.01538335350.0045169616

G02

G02 : Rpartition par risque des prestations de protection sociale en 2006 (en % du PIB et en structure)

Prestations en structurePrestations en % de PIB

Maladie28.5%8.4%

Vieillesse38.0%1.5%

Accidents du travail1.6%0.5%

Invalidit5.1%11.2%

Survie6.7%2.0%

Maternit1.2%0.4%

Famille7.9%2.3%

Insertion0.4%0.1%

Chmage6.4%1.9%

Logement2.7%0.8%

Pauvret-exclusion1.5%0.5%

Sources Drees, comptes de la protection sociale

G02

MBD016250B6.xls

Graph3

0.8

2.4

3.4

3.3

4

6.8

Graph6

0.8

2.4

3.4

3.3

4

6.8

Feuil1

199019931996199920032006

0.82.43.43.346.8

Feuil1

G02

G02 : Rpartition par risque des prestations de protection sociale en 2006 (en % du PIB et en structure)

Prestations en structurePrestations en % de PIB

Maladie28.5%8.4%

Invalidit5.1%1.5%

Accidents du travail1.6%0.5%

Vieillesse38.0%11.2%

Survie6.7%2.0%

Maternit1.2%0.4%

Famille7.9%2.3%

Insertion0.4%0.1%

Chmage6.4%1.9%

Logement2.7%0.8%

Pauvret-exclusion1.5%0.5%

Sources Drees, comptes de la protection sociale

G02

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

Source: INED

Changes to the number of births and the proportion of extramarital births in France

Families are not the same as they used to be (1)Births Extra-marital

Source: OECDFamilies are not the same as they used to be (2)

The work/family balance revolution

Cross-country relation between female employment rates and total fertility rates

Work and life balance : insatisfationSource : Family life and the needs of an ageing population, Eurobaromtre, 2008

Work and life balance : the solution ?Source : Family life and the needs of an ageing population, Eurobaromtre, 2008

OECD countries by family policy

Pre-primary education

Childcare

Childcare in the EU. French are among the least satisfiedSource : Eurobaromtre, 2005

Parental leaveAny relationship with fertily?Sources: OECD, National Statistical Offices and Eurostat Demographic Statistics for EU countries.

A big issue: how many children do women desire?Source : Eurobaromtre, 2006

A very big issue: women in modern lifeFemale ManagersTerritory size shows the proportion of worldwide work force of female managers that work there.Source : www.worldmapper.org

Another important relationship: share of births outside marriage and fertility rate, 1970, 2005

Sources: OECD, National Statistical Offices and Eurostat Demographic Statistics for EU countries.

The last (French?) big issue: migrationAfter the brain drain, the care drain?

The more you spend, the more you have children? NO

The easier it is to work and to divorce, the more you have children? PROBABLY

A new european idea:social investment

Thank you for your attention