fall tv premieres analysis
DESCRIPTION
Using Alterian SM2 we monitored the upcoming fall shows for the networks and made a few predictions on what shows will continue on and what shows will be canceled.TRANSCRIPT
Fall TV ShowDown:Using Social Data to Predict This Season’s TV Hits
Jim [email protected]/jimmyrey
Monitoring the buzz around the new shows from ABC, CBS, CW, FOX, FX, NBC & HBO
Analysis Setup
Details:• Keywords for Top Fall shows• SM2 Category Rules for Topic• All Languages
• Location Limited to US• 10 Weeks of Data
Analysis:
• Conversation primarily driven by other media types (CW community + friendfeed + delicious)
• Early spikes resulting from summer previews of fall shows
• Major spike on 9/7 focused on the premiere of Terriers on FX
• Major spike on 9/8 – 9/9 focused on the premiere of Nikita/Hellcats
Daily Volume
Trend Analysis
Analysis:
1. S#*! My Dad Says 18%2. Hawaii 5-0 18%3. Nikita - 14%4. Hellcats - 13%5. Boardwalk Empire - 8%6. No Ordinary Family - 5%7. Terriers – 4.6%8. Undercovers – 4.4%9. Outsourced – 4.2%10. Blue Bloods – 4.2%11. My Generation – 4.1%12. Running Wilde – 3%
Share of Voice: Ranking The New Shows
Trend Analysis
Trend Analysis
Analysis:• No Ordinary Family & My
Generation are trending at a similar pace
• Audience is 65% male • Sentiment is split nearly
50/50
Trend Analysis
Analysis:• S#*! My Dad Says had an
early lead but late in July Hawaii 5-0 took off, while Blue Bloods remained a distant third
• Audience is 55% male • Sentiment is generally
positive**Sentiment Dictionary was modified for “SH*T my dad says”
Trend Analysis
Analysis:• Hellcats has the lead but
Nikita just behind• Audience is 52% male –
48% female• Sentiment is predominately
positive with a large increase around the premiere’s
Trend Analysis
Analysis:• Terriers dominates Running
Wilde• Audience is 65% male • Sentiment is slightly more
positive than negative
Trend Analysis
Analysis:• Boardwalk Empire has
maintained consistent buzz that is slowly building before the premiere
• Audience is 75% male • Boardwalk has the highest
percentage of positive conversations among all shows
Trend Analysis
Analysis:• Undercovers has a slight
lead due to an early spike, but Outsouced has taken the lead since
• Audience is 65% male • Sentiment is primarily
negative with the conversation focused on Outsourced
Predictions• Based on buzz alone, CBS seems to have a great shot at
maintaining its leadership in prime-time television with consistently high ratings
• HBO’s Boardwalk Empire has garnered the most positive sentiment
• Based on the pre-premiere buzz, Running Wilde (FOX) and Outsourced (NBC) appear to have the highest chance to sink to the bottom