fall 2012 early enrollment estimates
DESCRIPTION
Analysis of enrollment trends in Massachusetts public colleges and universities, comparing the early estimates of fall 2012 enrollment with historic data. Presented to the Massachusetts Board of Higher Education on October 16, 2012.TRANSCRIPT
Highlights: 2012 Early Enrollment Estimates
Board of Higher Education Meeting | October 16, 2012
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2012 Early Enrollment Estimates
System Trend Compared to WICHE High School Graduation EstimatesMA High School Graduates vs.
MA Public Higher Ed First-Time and All Undergraduate Students
• Undergraduate enrollment continues to climb, though first-time student enrollment is slowly dropping along with declines in the estimated high school graduation cohorts.
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2012 Early Enrollment Estimates
Segment Summary of Undergraduate Enrollment
• New enrollment highs across all segments, but growth is not as dramatic as in recent years.
• Growth at the four-year institutions is similar to national trends (1.1%).
• Community college growth runs counter to the national trend, where enrollment declined 2.2% from fall 2010 to fall 2011.
Fall 2012
Estimate
Change from
Fall 2011
Percent Change
Community Colleges
100,866 424 0.4%
State University
42,127 495 1.2%
UMass 53,943957
1.8%
System 196,936 1,876 1%
Undergraduate Headcount
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2012 Early Enrollment Estimates
Campus Highlights: Fall ‘11 to Fall ‘12 Increases in Undergrad. Headcount
The campuses with the greatest fall-to-fall increases in undergraduate enrollment were :
▪ Framingham State University 6.2%▪ University of Massachusetts Lowell 5.0%▪ Fitchburg State University 4.3%▪ Bunker Hill Community College 4.0%▪ Northern Essex Community College 3.9%
•UMass Lowell and Bunker Hill had the highest enrollment increases in their segments for at least the past three years. Framingham State had the highest enrollment increases over the past two years.
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2012 Early Enrollment Estimates
Segment Summary of Undergraduate Enrollment
Fall-to-Fall Trend in Undergraduate Headcount Growth
• Every year has brought growth in the state universities and UMass. Community colleges have only had one year without growth. • However, amount of growth has varied.• The start of the recession and large high school graduating classes inspired impressive year-to-year growth rates from fall 2007 to fall 2009. Growth has moderated since then.
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2012 Early Enrollment Estimates
Fall Enrollment Long-Term Trend at a Glance
• Slower growth in recent years should not cloud the tremendous 23% growth in undergraduate enrollment over the last ten years.
26%
21%
19%
2012 Early Enrollment Estimates
What does the slowing growth in enrollment imply?• Meeting the degree production goals of the Vision Project
will rely heavily on graduating more students already in the system.
• However, increases in graduation rates alone are unlikely to enable us the fully achieve the Vision Project goals.
• In order to effectively boost enrollments in the coming years, we will need to recruit larger cohorts of non-traditional students or students from frequently underserved populations, e.g.:
• Latino Students• Older Students
Implications of Enrollment Trends
2012 Early Enrollment Estimates
Latino Students
2011 to 2022
Total Latino
Projected Change in High School Graduates
-9% +37%
Projected Changes in Massachusetts High School Graduates
Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door
College-Going Rate of Massachusetts Public High School Graduates
White Latino
Percent of 2009 High school Graduates Enrolling in College in Fall 2009
72% 51%
Source: Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, National Student Clearinghouse
2012 Early Enrollment Estimates
Older Students
Fall 2008 to Fall 2011
Under 25 25 and over
Community Colleges 7% 23%
State Universities 6% 7%University of Massachusetts 4% 20%
System 6% 21%
Growth in New Student Undergraduate Enrollment by Age
Note: “New” means entered institution for the first time as a freshman, transfer, readmitted or non-degree-seeking student.
• Approximately 25% of our new students were 25 or older in 2011, which likely reflects the increasing economic pressure to obtain a college degree.
2012 Early Enrollment Estimates
Adults with high school diplomas and the labor market.• According to the Center for Education and Workforce
(Georgetown): During the recession, the unemployment rate for high school graduates rose to 13.4% and remains at 9.4%.
• During the post-recession recovery, people with high school diplomas or less continued to lose jobs (-230,000) whereas those with some college education or higher gained jobs (1.6–2 million)
Older Students
Massachusetts public higher education is the education gateway for working-age adults.• In fall 2011, 74% of undergraduate students age 25
and over enrolled in higher education in Massachusetts were enrolled in Massachusetts public higher education.
QuestionsJonathan Keller: [email protected] or (617) 994-6941