Fall 2008 Cyberseminar Series

Ed ard R therfordEdward RutherfordNatural Resources and the Environment

University of Michigan

7 November 08to begin at 3:05 et

Great Lakes Cooperative Institute for Limnology and Ecosystems Research: Program overview, Hydrology

Research and ApplicationsResearch and Applications

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Upcoming CUAHSI ActivitiesUpcoming CUAHSI ActivitiesCyberseminars

14 November – Aris Georgakakos, Georgia Tech

CUAHSI Membership Meeting & Reception at Fall AGUTuesday 16 December, 6:30pm

Grand Hyatt

Great Lakes Cooperative Institute for LimnologyGreat Lakes Cooperative Institute for Limnology and Ecosystems Research: Program overview,

Hydrology Research and Applications

Edward RutherfordNatural Resources and the Environment

University of Michigan

The Great Lakes CILERThe Great Lakes CILER

Edward RutherfordEdward RutherfordEdward RutherfordEdward RutherfordResearch Fishery BiologistResearch Fishery Biologist

NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research LaboratoryLaboratoryLaboratoryLaboratory

CUAHSI Seminar Nov 7, 2008CUAHSI Seminar Nov 7, 2008

OutlineOutlineOutlineOutline

Resource Issues in Great LakesResource Issues in Great Lakes Resource Issues in Great LakesResource Issues in Great Lakes

What is CILER?What is CILER?

NOAA/CILER Research Themes in GLNOAA/CILER Research Themes in GL

Examples of NOAA/CILER ResearchExamples of NOAA/CILER Research

Application of NOAA and UniversityApplication of NOAA and University Application of NOAA and University Application of NOAA and University Hydrology Research to investigate Climate Hydrology Research to investigate Climate Change Land Use impactsChange Land Use impactsChange, Land Use impactsChange, Land Use impacts

Great Lakes Resource IssuesGreat Lakes Resource IssuesGreat Lakes Resource IssuesGreat Lakes Resource Issues

Invasive SpeciesInvasive Species

Water DiversionsWater Diversions Water Diversions, Water Diversions, DamsDams

Land Use, Habitat Land Use, Habitat DegradationDegradation

OverharvestOverharvest

ContaminantsContaminants

And Now, Climate ChangeAnd Now, Climate ChangeAnd Now, Climate ChangeAnd Now, Climate Change

Photo by Mike Quigley NOAA GLERLPhoto by Mike Quigley, NOAA GLERL

What is CILER? What is CILER? -- OverviewOverview

Cooperative Institutes are: LongCooperative Institutes are: Long--term (5term (5-- Cooperative Institutes are: LongCooperative Institutes are: Long--term (5term (5--10 year) research collaborations between 10 year) research collaborations between NOAA and Research InstitutionsNOAA and Research InstitutionsNOAA and Research InstitutionsNOAA and Research Institutions

CILER:CILER:E t bli h d i 1989E t bli h d i 1989 Established in 1989Established in 1989

Partnership between several universities and Partnership between several universities and NOAA GLERL t f GL d t lNOAA GLERL t f GL d t lNOAA GLERL to focus on GL and coastal NOAA GLERL to focus on GL and coastal environmentsenvironments

Housed within UM School of Natural ResourcesHoused within UM School of Natural Resources Housed within UM School of Natural Resources Housed within UM School of Natural Resources & Environment& Environment

CILER MissionCILER Mission

Improve effectivenessImprove effectiveness of NOAAof NOAA--sponsored Greatsponsored GreatImprove effectivenessImprove effectiveness of NOAAof NOAA sponsored Great sponsored Great Lakes, coastal, and estuarine researchLakes, coastal, and estuarine research

Serve as Serve as focal pointfocal point for interactions between NOAA for interactions between NOAA and the Great Lakes research communityand the Great Lakes research communityyy

Improve effectiveness of Improve effectiveness of graduate educationgraduate education and and p ove e ec ve ess op ove e ec ve ess o g du e educ og du e educ o ddexpand research opportunities for studentsexpand research opportunities for students

Provide Provide trainingtraining in aquatic research for NOAA and in aquatic research for NOAA and academic personnelacademic personnel

NOAA Cooperative InstitutesNOAA Cooperative Institutes 21 NOAA CIs 21 NOAA CIs

nationwidenationwidenationwidenationwide Some Participating Some Participating

Universities:Universities:Universities:Universities: ColumbiaColumbia PrincetonPrincetonPrincetonPrinceton Scripps Scripps -- UCSDUCSD WHOI WHOI -- MITMIT U AlaskaU Alaska U HawaiiU Hawaii U WashingtonU Washington U WashingtonU Washington U Miami RSMASU Miami RSMAS

NOAA/CILER Research NOAA/CILER Research ThemesThemes

Invasive SpeciesInvasive Species Invasive SpeciesInvasive Species

Great Lakes ForecastingGreat Lakes Forecasting

Integrated AssessmentsIntegrated Assessments

Observing SystemsObserving Systems

Protect Restore Natural ResourcesProtect Restore Natural Resources Protect, Restore Natural ResourcesProtect, Restore Natural Resources

Education and OutreachEducation and Outreach

CILER Research: Great Lakes CILER Research: Great Lakes ForecastingForecasting

Transport of harmful Transport of harmful algae and bacteria in thealgae and bacteria in thealgae and bacteria in the algae and bacteria in the

Great LakesGreat Lakes

Nearshore Transport: Nearshore Transport: Model Observations and Beach Model Observations and Beach ClosuresClosuresClosuresClosures

Forecasting Beach Closing: Forecasting Beach Closing: H f l Al l Bl d tH f l Al l Bl d tHarmful Algal Blooms and water Harmful Algal Blooms and water Quality in the Great LakesQuality in the Great Lakes

CILER Research: Integrated CILER Research: Integrated AssessmentAssessmentAssessmentAssessment

ECOFORE: Assessing the ECOFORE: Assessing the C d C fC d C fCauses, and Consequences of Causes, and Consequences of Hypoxia in Lake Erie Hypoxia in Lake Erie

NOAA/CILER Research: Observing S tSystems

Real-time Coastal Observation Network (ReCON)Real-time Coastal Observation Network (ReCON)

. Wireless Internet System

. High Bandwidth Applications

. Ethernet Compatible

. Seabed to Sea Surface Operation

. Standard Multiple Sensor Inputs

. Leverages advantages of our present wired and wireless world

ReCONReCON. Range from shore: 15 miles

. Buoy arrays allow data relay over longer distances

. System bandwidth up to 1.5 Mb/s (T1)

Buoy and underwater hub provide an. Buoy and underwater hub provide an Ethernet, Serial or Analog interface to multiple sensors

System control allows power

ReCON Applications:

. NWS: Rip Currents, Marine Forecasts

. System control allows power management and instrument control allowing reaction to episodic events

p ,

. Response to Episodic Hypoxia Events

. Fisheries Research at Thunder Bay

. Ice Study Groundtruth

. Harmful Algal Bloom Research

Buoy and Fixed Observation Sites

Thunder Bay National Marine

Sanctuary

NOAA Field

University of Wisconsin

NOAA Field Station

University of

Wisconsin Milwaukee

NASA

Toledo

Great Lakes Observing System Great Lakes Observing System (GLOS)(GLOS)(GLOS)(GLOS)

Lake Huron – Lake Erie Nowcasts/Forecasts

Example: Applications of NOAA Example: Applications of NOAA p ppp ppand University Hydrology Models and University Hydrology Models

to Resource Issuesto Resource Issuesto Resource Issuesto Resource Issues

Climate Change x Land UseClimate Change x Land UseTemperature

Great Lakes Water LevelsRainfall

How will Climate and Land Use How will Climate and Land Use Change affect Fish Habitat andChange affect Fish Habitat andChange affect Fish Habitat and Change affect Fish Habitat and

Recruitment in Muskegon River?Recruitment in Muskegon River?

Landcover change model*LTM2 Social & Structural

drivers

Surface abstraction reach hydrographs thermograph

HEC-HMSKendallPREP msu SRTMumSubbasin & channelRouting transforms

HEC-HMS

Groundwater Model

MODFLOW msu

Channel hydraulicswidth

HEC-RASEmpirical Metricmodelsde

ls

widthdepth

velocityshear

DynHabitatMulti_spp WUA

pons

e m

od

Channel stressoxygen

DOSMOCumBioEnergetic IBMs

ogic

al re

sp

oxygentemperature

foodBed transport

CumStressBio

lo

Muskegon WatershedResearch Partnership (MWRP)

•Watershed assessmentFishInvertebratesAlgaeWater chemistryHabitat

Lower river detailed study•Lower river detailed studyInvertebrate productivityFish bioenergeticsHydrologic model (HEC)Hydrologic model (HEC)Hydraulic model (HEC-RAS & HEC-GIS)Channel habitat model

Use Existing Data on Fish and Use Existing Data on Fish and H bi d di iH bi d di iHabitat to extend predictions Habitat to extend predictions

MDNR Fish Survey Sites

Modeling Flow-dependent Habitat in the Lower Muskegon River

M.J. Wiley, C.M. Riseng, E.S. Rutherford, and J.A. Tyler

+100 %

+ 60 %

+ 80 % Basin average reach response( % change from 1998 +2 se) 

sedflow+ 20 %

+ 40 %

flowJulyT

20 %

0

20 %

- 20 %PresC ClimC PresC ClimC PresC ClimCFarmLP BAUsual Red. Urban Sprawl

LandUse >> ClimateNutrient Concs

LandUse & ClimateSediment loadsNutrient loads

LandUse << ClimateWater

temperatureFlow rates

p

RUS

FLP2

BUARUS

walleye

FLP2BUARUS

trouts*

FLP2BUA

RUSbass & pike

FLP2BUARUS

coldwater

FLP2BUARUS

adfluvial salmonines

-60% -40% -20% 0 +20% +40% +60%

% CHANGE  in HABITAT AVAILABILITY

Hydrology Program

Thomas E. Croley II, Hydrologist

NOAA GLERL

Advanced Hydrology Prediction SystemAdvanced Hydrology Prediction SystemComponents ForecastingForecastingClimate ImpactsT i l L k P l H d l Terminal Lake PaleoHydrology

Distributed Large Basin Runoff ModelModelingModel ngApplicationsResource ShedsResource ShedsForecasting

Runoff to Lake Superior (cm/wk)

2.50

3.00ActualModel

InsolationPrecipitationTemperature

Snow Rain

1.50

2.00

Melt, m

Snow Pack

Runoff

0.50

1.00Supply

Upper Soil ZoneMoisture

SurfaceRunoff

Evapotranspiration

CapacityPercolation0.00

Jan-73 Jan-74 Jan-75 Jan-76

Runoff to Lake Superior (cm/mo)12.00

ActualModel

Lower Soil ZoneMoisture

Evapotranspiration

Interflow

Percolation

8.00

10.00Model

Groundwater ZoneMoisture

Evapotranspiration

GroundWater

DeepPercolation

4.00

6.00Moisture

Surface Storage

Evaporation

0.00

2.00

Jan-66 Jan-71 Jan-76 Jan-81

g

Basin Outflow

River Basin Runoff

& Moisture Storage

Lake Thermodynamics& Heat Storage

Lake Precipitation

Connecting Channels

Levels & FlowsLake

Regulation

Great Lakes Water

BalanceStorage & Heat StoragePrecipitation Levels & Flows Regulation Balance

Great Lakes Water ResourcesGreat Lakes Water Resources Great Lakes Water ResourcesFORECAST Package

Great Lakes Water ResourcesSIMULATION Package

EPA Climate Change

Management Impact Studies

Deterministic Hindcasts,

Nowcasts, & Outlooks

ProbabilisticOutlooks

IJC Climate Change

RegulationStudies

Outlooks

MCC Climate Transposition

Probabilistic Meteorology Forecasts

0 667 0.463P T 0.667

0.333 0.373P Q

0 667 0.333P T 0.667

0.333 0.667 0.333P Q Q

Lake Superior Mean Lake Level (meters, IGLD85)Forecast Start Date: October 3, 2007

Upper Regulation Limit

Simulated Outlook

95%Outlooks

D85

)

183.8

184.0

5%

20%

80%50%

eter

s, IG

LD

183.65%

Simulated

Leve

l (m

e

183.4

Chart Datum

Mea

n La

ke

183.0

183.2

Lower Regulation Limit

M

182.8

183.0

Lower Regulation Limit

Apr Jul Jan 07 Apr Jul Jan 08 Apr Jul182.6

Basin Response (Average Annual Runoff, 0.1—0.8 m)

Cool & DryBase Case Warm & Dry

Cool & WetWarm & Wet

Lake Response (Average Annual Evaporation, 0.5—1.2 m)

Cool & DryBase Case Warm & Dry

Cool & WetWarm & Wet

Climate Scenarios (Average Annual NBS, 0.3—2.1 m)

Cool & DryBase Case Warm & Dry

Cool & WetWarm & Wet

Summary of Climate Change Scenarios

Higher Air TemperaturesHigher Evapotranspiration and Lower RunoffE l ff P k Earlier Runoff Peaks Reduced Soil Moisture

Higher Water TemperaturesMore Heat In Deep LakesDiminished MixingDiminished MixingReduced Ice Formation Increased Lake Evaporation

Net Supplies Drop For Northern and Mid-Latitude Lakes, All Climates,For Southern Lakes, Except Cool & Wet Scenario

Steady-State Water Levels As a Function of ClimateLake Superior (average elevations in m) Lake Mich Hur (average elevations in m)

140120all levels < sill

Lake Superior (average elevations in m)C

160150

all levels < sill

Lake Mich.-Hur. (average elevations in m)

C

18

180160

all levels > sill

erat

ure

Ris

e,o C

1

169

all levels > sill

erat

ure

Ris

e,o C

182.4

82.2

182.8

182.6

18

183.0

Tem

pe

174

173

172

171

170

175

Tem

pe

83.2

0

Precipitation Drop, %

5176

Precipitation Drop, %

Terminal Lake Climates:

Superior, 4.7 T + P > 60; Michigan-Huron, 4.5 T + P > 63

Distributed Large Basin Runoff Model

ModelingApplicationsApplications

Resource ShedsForecasting

The Distributed Large Basin Runoff ModelThe Distributed Large Basin Runoff Model

Watersheds are subdivided into a grid of square pixels (1 km x 1 km) Watersheds are subdivided into a grid of square pixels (1 km x 1 km)

Water and pollutants move horizontally according to the difference Water and pollutants move horizontally according to the difference Water and pollutants move horizontally according to the difference Water and pollutants move horizontally according to the difference in elevation between neighboring pixelsin elevation between neighboring pixels

Elevation Fl kElevation Flow network

Distributed Large Basin Runoff Model @ Pixel Level

Schematic applies to each 1 km2 cell of watershedcascade of storage “tanks” (linear reservoirs)independent evaporation—potential evaporation

i bl i filt tivariable area infiltrationdegree-day snowmelt

Tank outflows are inflows to downstream tanksn u f w nf w wn m nflow routing determined by elevationsdiscretized watersheds to 1 km2 resolution

Resource Shed Defined with Multiple Loading SimulationsMaumee resource shed on January 1, 1950 from one and Maum r sourc sh on January , 95 from on an seven days previous loadings

1 day 31 dayy yOutlet Outlet

0 0.03%

Watershed Impacts on Yellow Perch Production in Lake Erie

Grand River Hydrology & Water Quality Model ObjectivesGrand River Hydrology & Water Quality Model Objectives

Forecasts for:Forecasts for• Discharge • Water Temperature• Fecal Coliforms

G d Ri

• Sediments• Other pollutants

Grand River

Objective:Objective:Link Watershed Model Forecast to Circulation Model Forecast to Model Forecast to Predict Beach Closings

SummarySummarySummarySummary

CILER provides effective partnershipsCILER provides effective partnerships CILER provides effective partnerships CILER provides effective partnerships between NOAA and university scientists to between NOAA and university scientists to address key issuesaddress key issuesaddress key issuesaddress key issues

C.I. Partnerships are needed to C.I. Partnerships are needed to understand and predict impacts of multiple understand and predict impacts of multiple ecosystem stressorsecosystem stressors

www.glerl.noaa.govwww.glerl.noaa.govwww.glerl.noaa.govwww.glerl.noaa.gov