faizullah_abbasi the mystery of unaccounted for gas
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THE MYSTERY OFUNACCOUNTED FOR GAS
…. The Mystery of
Unaccounted
for Gas
Presented by
Dr. Faizullah Abbasi, MD, SSGC
Pakistan Energy Conference
April 12, 2011-Islamabad
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Would
you hirethis man
as yourdetective ifit is the …
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Sui Southern Gas Company Limited 3
Quetta
Sibi
Pirkoh
Loti
Sui
Jacobabad
Shikarpur
Larkana
DaduZamzama
Sari Hyderabad
Nawabshah
SawanKadanwari
Miano
Badin
Karachi
Bhit
Hasan
Sukkur
FJFC
Pesh Bogi
Mazarani
Zarghun
Sindh
Balochistan
SSGC INFRASTRUCTURE
SSGCINFRASTRUCTURE
TransmissionNetwork (Km)
3,320
DistributionNetwork (Km)
36,785SNGPL transmission line
Customers
Industrial 3,863
Commercial 24,156
Domestic 2,219,138
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POD
POD
POD
POD
SMS
SMS
SMS
TBS
TBS
TBS IndustrialCMSs
DomesticMeters
CommercialMeters
Distribution Supply MainsTransmission pipelines Distribution Network
CUSTOMERS
4
GAS FLOW CHART
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Inspector Clouseau
will not solve themystery of UFG till
he gets into the
heart of the matter.
Will the Case get complex and
intricate? Let’s find out….
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TOTAL GASSALE
UFG
TOTAL GASPURCHASE
7
WHAT IS UNACCOUNTED FOR GAS OR UFG?
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INDUSTRIAL
SALE(3,863 Customers)
COMMERCIALSALE
(24,156 Customers)
DOMESTICSALE
(2,219,138 Customers)
UFG
+
+
GAS PURCHASEDFROM 16 GAS
FIELDS
8
HOW IS UFG CALCULATED?
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DISTRIBUTION
SYSTEM45 MMCF
UFG
5 MMCFi.e. 5%
GASPURCHASE100 MMCF
9
BULK/POWER
50 MMCF
UFG – THE ARITHMETIC TRICK - 1
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DISTRIBUTIONSYSTEM
45 MMCF
UFG5 MMCFi.e. 10%
GASPURCHASE50 MMCF
10
BULK/POWER 0 MMCF
UFG – THE ARITHMETIC TRICK - 2
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SSGC - YEAR WISE % BULK SALE TREND
11
%AGE
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UFG IN GAS SALES MIX - POWER
12
(26.15%)
(13.19%)
(5.5%)
(18.30%)
(16.82%)
(2.31%)
(7.95%)
(9.6 %)
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BULK POWER
129,812
BULK OTHER
42,405
DOMESTIC
73,844CNG
24,473
CAPTIVE POWER
57,915
COMMERCIAL
10,178
G.INDUSTRIES
80,351
UFG
20,000
15BCF Gas May Produce
UFG IN GAS SALES MIX – BULK POWER
13
(29.57%)
(13.19%)
(5.5%)
(18.30%)
(16.82%)
(2.31%)
(4.5%)
(9.6 %)
1,250,000 MW Power
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14
A Quick Math Calculation
SSGC: Annual UFG = 35,010 MMCF
(7.95%)
SSGC: Per day UFG = 96 MMCFD
Avg. Cost/MMCF = Rs 221,690
Financial Cost of Lost Gas (UFG)
35,010 (MMCF) x Rs 221,690 (Gas price)
= Rs 7,761 million
( All figures for FY-2009-10)
FIRST CLUE: FINANCIAL IMPACT OF UFG
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Reduced Gas Availability
for Power Sector.
Penalty by Regulator
(Rs. 934 Million in 2009-10)
Environmental Pollution
Equivalent to 9.135 million
Tonnes of CO2. (13% of the
total emissions of Pakistan).15
CONSEQUENCES OF HIGH UFG – PLOT THICKENS
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GENERAL PERCEPTION ABOUT UFG
ALL UFG IS THEFT
ALL THEFT IS UFG
BUT ALL UFG IS NOT
THEFT !
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Efforts focused on controlling gas theft.
Established theft control department.
Installed Cyber locks & EVCs.
Dedicated lines for bulk & CNG
customers.
Theft by non-customers.
ONGOING EFFORTS TO CONTROL GAS THEFT
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These
ongoing
exerciseshave
uncovered
some theft
cases .…
Yet the
UFG has
increased!
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18,871
19,28320,822
24,264
27,390
25,584
29,082
27,093
33,501
35,010
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10
UFG VOLUME (MMCF)
UFG IN SSGC – THE LAST TEN YEARS
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UFG
TRACKING DOWN SUSPECTS: UFG CLASSIFICATION
NON TECHNICAL
(THEFT)
COMPLEX/UNCONTROLLABLE
TECHNICAL(OTHER FACTORS)
CONTROLLABLE
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30th September 1988 Hyderabad Incident
Normal daily gas purchase of Hyderabad = 30 MMCFD.
Normal daily sale of Industrial & Commercial Customers
= 8 MMCFD.
During curfew all industrial & commercial units were closed.
Logically, Purchase should have been 30-8=22 MMCFD.
IT DID NOT HAPPEN
But actual Purchase on following days was 29 MMCFD-----------------
--------------------------------WHY?
INCIDENTS LEADING TOWARDS OTHER CAUSES OF UFG
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To dig deeper,
InspectorClouseau
heads off to
Hazara Colony,
Hyderabad….
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23
CHARACTERISTICS OF HAZARA COLONY
MANAGEABLE AREA
TOTAL LENGTH OF THELOOP = 3 Kms.
TOTAL NUMBER OFCUSTOMERS = 298.
HAZARA
COLONY
LINE DIAGRAM OFTHE AREA OF STUDY
PRS
HALI
ROAD
ZEAL PAK
TM KHAN
ROADFatah
Chowk
TBS Site
50 Psig
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PRESSURE REGULATING STATION (PRS) AND THE BULK METER FEEDING HAZARA COLONY HYDERABAD
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UFG AT DIFFERENT PRESSURES
UFG AT
4-5 psig
Purchase/Day 42.17 MCF
Sale/Day 20.38 MCF
UFG/Day21.79 MCF(51.67%)
UFG AT10-11 psig
56.5 MCF
20.38 MCF
36.12 MCF(63.93%)
UFG AT
21-23 psig
223.2 MCF
20.38 MCF
202.82 MCF(90.87%)
HAZARA COLONY HYDERABAD
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IMPACT OF OVERHEAD LEAKAGE RECTIFICATION AT 4-5 psig
Before OHrectification
After OH
Rectification
Purchase/
Day 42.17 Mcf 40.72 Mcf Sales/
Day20.38 Mcf 20.38 Mcf
UFG/
Day21.79 Mcf 20.34 Mcf
UFG % 51.67% 49.95%
ACT O T C A G
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AT 4-5 psig
Beforeinstallation
of new
meters
Afterinstallation
of new
metersPurchase/Day
40.72 Mcf 39.19 Mcf
Sale/Day 20.38 Mcf 27.65 Mcf
UFG/Day 20.34 Mcf 11.54 Mcf
UFG% 49.95% 29.45%
IMPACT OF METER CHANGE
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FACTOR-WISE UFG VOLUMEMCF PER
DAY% OF UFG
OVER HEAD LEAKAGES 1.45 6.66
PUG METERS 1.37 6.29
METERS SLOW DUE TO DUST 0.43 1.97
METERS SLOW DUE TO
OPERATIONAL EFFECT
2.51 11.52
BILLING DIFFERENCES 0.14 0.64
THEFT (METERS TAMPERED) 4.35 19.96
LEAKAGES 11.54 52.96
TOTAL 21.79 100.0
PURCHASE VOLUME 42.17 MCF/DAYSALE VOLUME 20.38 MCF/DAYTOTAL UFG VOLUME 21.79 MCF/DAY
UFG CONTRIBUTING FACTORS
AT 4-5 psig
INTERIOR SINDH
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Rehabilitationalongwith
Augmentation & Pressure Profiling
Introductionof Pressure
Profiling
INTERIOR SINDH
UFG STATUS (1982-83 to 2009-10)
29
Increasing TrendDespite Pressure
ProfilingWithout
Augmentation
KARACHI
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Introduction
of PressureProfilingWithoutPressureProfiling
KARACHI
UFG STATUS (1989-90 to 2009-10)
30
Introduction of CNG Stations
WithoutAugmentationand desired
Rehabilitation
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LESSONS FROM NATIONAL GRID, UK
& LONE STAR GAS, USA
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32
Distribution system operates in inches of water column.
Estimated Losses due to Leakages 6.3 Bcf / Annum.
Introduced Pressure Profiling in 1990.
Installed 3,500 automatic pressure profiling systems.
Additional 2,000 are in process.
*Presented by Mr. Jonathan Dennett & Steven Vallender in 2009 IGU
Conference Argentina in 2009
CLUE 2 – LONE STAR COMPANY, USA
LO
* Reducing the pressure from 10 psig to 5 psig lowersthe gas leakage by 29.3%.
*Presented by Mr. Darryl Gallagher
CLUE 1 – NATIONAL GRID, UK
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33
PRESSURE
PROFILINGSYSTEM
AUGUMENTATION
SHORT TERM MAGIC TOOLS TO REDUCE UFG
PRESSURE PROFILING
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Rate of gas leakage is reduced by reducing operatingpressure.
Pressures are reduced during off-peak Period (Night)and normalized during day (Cooking Load Period).
PRESSURE PROFILING
PIPELINE AUGMENTATION
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PIPELINE AUGMENTATION
35
Augmentation involves lowering operating pressures
and increasing network capacity.
Distribution Network becomes undersized with
increase in load with time.
Network Pressures are kept high to ensure gas
availability to Customers.
Undersize Network is rectified by replacement of small dia pipelines with large dia pipelines or by
laying additional lines of large dia.
COMPLICATING THE CASE
–
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Underground leaks (Ageing of
Distribution Network) &
Overhead leaks.
Reduction in uninfected sales(Bulk) and increase in infectedsales (Retail)
Measurement and Billing Errors
Third Party Damages.
Pipeline ruptures due to blast /sabotage.
COMPLICATING THE CASE
OTHER FACTORS BEHIND UFG
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MONITORING UFG
Segmentation of DistributionNetwork in Small Zones.
Analysis of Gas Sale,
Purchase and UFG.
GETTING INTO THE HEART OF THE CASE
NOVEL TECHNIQUES TO MONITOR UFG
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NOVEL TECHNIQUES TO MONITOR UFG
38
Let’s check the
trends through
DIFFERENTIAL
ANALYSIS
Differential Analysis (Decrease in UFG)
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Differential Analysis (Decrease in UFG)
MMCF
Differential Analysis (Increase in UFG)
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Differential Analysis (Increase in UFG)
MMCF
UFG MONITORING TOOL
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(DIFFERENTIAL ANALYSIS) MMCF
41
Region wise UFG Differential Analysis of Interior Sindh
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g yJul-Sep 2010 (1st Qtr) V/s Jul-Sep 2009 (1st Qtr)
MMCF
LONG TERM MEASURES TO CONTROL UFG
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Pipeline
Rehabilitation
ImproveMeasurement
Accuracy
LONG TERM MEASURES TO CONTROL UFG
UFG REDUCTION: WORLD BANK FUNDING – 2011-15
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COMPONENT WISE PHYSICAL TARGET
Items Unit Total
REHABILITATION OF DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM Km 5750
AUTOMATIC PRESSURE MANAGEMENT Nos. 400
UNDERGROUND LEAK SURVEY AND
RECTIFICATIONKm 18700
OVERHEAD LEAKAGE SURVEY AND
RECTIFICATION
No. of customer
connections 2,770,300
AUGMENTATION Km 713
METERS Nos. 13,062
METER TESTING EQUIPMENT Nos. 24
SURVEILLANCE AND DATA MONITORING
EQUIPMENT Nos. 2500
PIPE RECOATING Km 450
CP EQUIPMENT Nos. 5902
SEGMENTATION & PRESSURE MANAGEMENT
EQUIPMENTNos. 400
44
UFG – THROUGH THE LENS
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UFG THROUGH THE LENS
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The Mystery of UFG has been SOLVED to a great
extent. Yet this trail to clamp down on UFG cases
have uncovered COMPLEX issues such as thenagging incidence of gas theft that needs further
identification…
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COMING
SOON
Clouseau’s
next case:Tackling
Gas theft
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QUESTION
TIME
UFG CONTRIBUTING FACTORS
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FACTOR-WISE UFG VOLUMEMCF PER
DAY
% OF
UFG
OVER HEAD LEAKAGES 1.45 6.66
PUG METERS 1.37 6.29
METERS SLOW DUE TO DUST 0.43 1.97
METERS SLOW DUE TO
OPERATIONAL EFFECT2.51 11.52
BILLING DIFFERENCES 0.14 0.64
THEFT (METERS TAMPERED) 4.35 19.96
LEAKAGES 11.54 52.96
TOTAL 21.79 100.0
UFG CONTRIBUTING FACTORS
AT 4-5 psig
MCF PER
DAY
% OFUFG
1.45 4.01
1.37 3.80
0.43 1.19
2.51 6.95
0.14 0.39
4.35 12.04
25.87 71.62
36.12 100.0
Purchase Volume
Sale Volume
Total UFG Volume
42.17 MCF/DAY
20.38 MCF/DAY
21.79 MCF/DAY
AT 10-11 psig AT 21-23 psig
56.50 MCF/DAY
20.38 MCF/DAY
36.12 MCF/DAY
223.2 MCF/DAY
20.38 MCF/DAY
202.82 MCF/DAY
MCF PER
DAY
% OFUFG
1.45 0.71
1.37 0.68
0.43 0.21
2.51 1.24
0.14 0.07
4.35 2.14
192.57 94.95
202.82 100.0
UFG MONITORING TOOL