Central West and Orana Region – What’s the Housing Demand?Population Forecast At the 2016 Census, the Central West and Orana Region had a population of

284,044. In 2016, the Aboriginal population of the Central West and Orana was 25,525 or

9.0% of the total – compared to 2.9% for NSW as a whole. The Department of Planning, Industry and Environment (DPIE) have prepared

population and household projections for all of the local government areas in NSW. DPIE forecast that population growth will vary across the Central West and Orana region, with the highest rates of growth expected to occur across larger urban centres in the Central West, including Orange and Bathurst, followed by Mudgee, Parkes and Lithgow. DPIE also forecast that Dubbo will have some of the highest growth as the major urban centre for Orana. DPIE project that smaller towns and villages in Cabonne and Blayney LGAs, close to Bathurst and Orange, will experience population growth as well.

Age The age profile of the region and particularly each LGA will impact on housing

need and demand, including number of bedrooms, affordability, location and dwelling type.

The median age of the Central West and Orana Region population at 2016 ranges from 37 in Western Plains Regional and also Orange to 51 in Weddin, (compared to 36 in Sydney and 43 in the Rest of NSW).

At the 2016 Census, there was some variation in age profile across the Central West and Orana Region LGAs:

o The majority of LGA’s had a higher proportion of 0-14 year olds than the average for the Rest of NSW (that is Blayney, Bogan, Cabonne, Coonamble, Western Plains Regional, Forbes, Gilgandra, Mid-Western Regional, Narromine, Orange, Parkes and Warren).

o Bathurst, Western Plains Regional, Oberon, Orange and Parkes had a higher proportion of 15-24 year olds.

o Orange, Western Plains Regional and Bathurst had higher proportions of 25-44 year olds.

o The majority of LGAs had higher proportions of residents aged over 45 years, with Weddin having the highest proportion in those age 45-64, 65-74, 75-84 and 85 and over.

Overall, the region has a slightly lower proportion of younger age groups (0-14, 15-24 and 25-44) than the Rest of NSW average and a slightly higher proportion of older age groups than the Rest of NSW.

The graph below depicts the age profile for each of the Central West and Orana LGAs plus the Region as a whole and the Rest of NSW.

DPIE project that the fastest growing age groups in the Central West and Orana to 2036 will be those aged 70+.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

This suggests an increased need for housing that is accessible and appropriate, especially for the needs of older cohorts.

In 2015, over 85% of older Australians lived in private dwellings, with 73% of them owning their own home. 6.6% were in residential accommodation and 6.6% lived in 'other non-private dwellings' such as caravan parks and self-care units in retirement villages. Older Australians strongly prefer to age in place.

Increasingly older residents require support to age in place and to ensure their homes are safe and appropriate for their needs.

Although the majority of older Australians own their own home, about 15% of older Australians are renters, and these people are generally a highly vulnerable and economically disadvantaged group, with older women being the fastest growing demographic of people experiencing homelessness. There is therefore a need for more adaptable, accessible dwellings, well located, secure, low maintenance and affordable to meet the needs of seniors and frail aged in particular, within their communities. Those most in need are households in the private rental market, who struggle to afford housing on an Aged Pension or inadequate superannuation1.

Household Type At the 2016 Census, lone person households were the largest household type in

the Central West and Orana, comprising 26.1% of households (compared to 25.5% in the Rest of NSW), closely followed by couples (25.8%, compared to 27.0% in the Rest of NSW), then couple family with children households (25.4%, the same as the Rest of NSW) and one parent families (10.9% compared to 11.0% in the Rest of NSW).

1 "Housing Decisions of Older Australians" Productivity Commission December 2015.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

Couple and lone person households comprise 52.0% of all households while families comprise 36.3% (group households make up 2.5% and other household types a further 9.1% of all households).

As a region the Central West and Orana has a higher proportion of lone person households and other household types and lower proportions of couple only and one parent family households compared with the Rest of NSW.

However there is variation within the region, with Cabonne having the highest proportion of couple family with children households (31.8%) and Coonamble the lowest (17.4%); Weddin having the highest proportion of couple only households (31.7%) and Coonamble the lowest (22.3%); Weddin also has the highest proportion of lone person households (30.0%) and Cabonne the lowest (22.9%); and not surprisingly, given the location of the university there, Bathurst has the highest proportion of group households (3.7%).

Aboriginal households show a different household composition. In 2016 in the Central West and Orana there were mainly one couple families with children (30.7%, higher than the average for the region as a whole); one family household one parent families (28.0%, which is significantly higher than the 10.9% for the total population in the Central West and Orana); lone person households (16.2% also much lower than the total population); couple only (15.8%, much lower than the total population),and 4.3% group households (higher than proportion for the Central West and Orana as a whole). 3.0% of Aboriginal households are multi-family in this region.

The graph below shows the proportion of household types at the 2016 Census for each of the Central West and Orana LGAs, as well as the total for the region and the Rest of NSW.

DPIE projections until 2036 forecast that lone person households will grow fastest in the Central West and Orana, followed by couple only households, couple with children households and single parent households.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

The current and projected household composition of the Central West and Orana suggests the need for an increasing diversity of bedroom mix, including more studio (bedsit), one and two bedroom homes to suit different household sizes as the number and proportion of smaller household types increases in the region.

Household Size Average household size in the Central West and Orana at 2016 ranged between

2.2 and 2.6 persons per household. At 2016 the Rest of NSW had an average household size of 2.4 (down from 2.7 in 2001). Generally household size has remained fairly stable within the region, with just a small number of LGAs experiencing a decline between 2011 and 2016 (Bogan, Oberon, Parkes, Warrumbungle and Weddin).

The table below shows average household size for each of the Central West and Orana LGAs and the Rest of NSW from 2006 to 2016.

AreaAverage

Household Size 2006

Average Household Size 2011

Average Household Size 2016

Bathurst Regional 2.5 2.5 2.5Blayney 2.6 2.5 2.5Bogan 2.6 2.5 2.4Cabonne 2.6 2.6 2.6Coonamble 2.5 2.4 2.4Cowra 2.5 2.3 2.3Dubbo 2.6 2.6

Western Plains Regional 2.5Forbes 2.4 2.4 2.4Gilgandra 2.5 2.4 2.4Lachlan 2.5 2.4 2.4Lithgow 2.4 2.3 2.3Mid-Western Regional 2.5 2.4 2.4Narromine 2.6 2.5 2.5Oberon 2.6 2.5 2.4Orange 2.5 2.5 2.5Parkes 2.5 2.5 2.4Warren 2.4 2.4 2.4Warrumbungle Shire 2.4 2.4 2.3Weddin 2.3 2.3 2.2Wellington 2.5 2.4 Rest of NSW 2.5 2.4 2.4

DCJ Local Government Housing Kit Database- Source: ABS, Analysis FACS.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

Income Low income households predominate in the Central West and Orana, comprising

47.9% of all households, just below the average of 48.0% for the Rest of NSW. There is not a single LGA in the region which does not have a majority of low income households.

Moderate income households make up 20.9% in the Central West and Orana, compared with 21.4% in the Rest of NSW. .

High income households in the region comprise 31.2%, above the average of 30.6% in the Rest of NSW.

There is some variation between Central West and Orana LGAs, with:o Warrumbungle having the highest proportion of low income households

with 61.5%, followed by Weddin with 59.3%, Cowra with 57.1% and Gilgandra with 56.2%.

o Orange has the lowest proportion of low income households with 42.5%, followed by Bathurst with 43.2%, and Western Plains Regional with 44.1%.

o Orange has the highest proportion of high income earning households with 35.9%, followed by Bogan with 35.5% and Bathurst with 35.1%.

The table below shows the proportion of low, moderate and high income earners for each Central West and Orana LGA, the average for the region and the Rest of NSW.

The number of low income households increased in the Central West and Orana by 12.1% from 47,342 in 2011 to 53,083 in 2016 in line with the trend in Sydney and the Rest of NSW.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

Note from the graph above that the increase in low income households was not universal, with large increases in major centres such as Bathurst, Dubbo (Western Plains Regional) and Orange, to a lesser extent in Lithgow and Mid-Western Regional, also Blayney and Cowra, and declines elsewhere.

Also in line with the trend in Sydney and the Rest of NSW, overall the Central West and Orana Region has experienced an increase in low income rental households between 2011 and 2016, as shown in the graph below.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

It is clear from the graph above that the increase in low income rental households is almost universal across the region, unlike the increase in low income households generally.

This suggests that demand for affordable rental housing is increasing in almost every LGA across the region. It is occurring even where there is a decline in low income households generally and in some cases where there is no population growth.

Industry Structure What occupations residents are employed in will impact what they can afford in

terms of housing tenure, dwelling type, number of bedrooms and location. The industry structure of the Central West and Orana Region is different to that of

the Rest of NSW as a whole, with higher proportions of the population in the region employed in agriculture, forestry and fishing; mining; and education and training and lower proportions in every other category.

Across the region, the largest proportion of Central West and Orana residents are employed in health care and social assistance (13.5%); agriculture, forestry and fishing (11.2%); retail trade (9.8%); education and training (9.4%); and construction (7.1%).

The following graph illustrates the industry profile for the Central West and Orana region.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

However there is variation between LGAs within the region. For example:o Warren (41.1%), Weddin (37.5%), Coonamble (31.1%), Lachlan (28.1%),

Gilgandra (27.9%), Warrumbungle (27.6%), Narromine (26.2%), Bogan (22.9%), Forbes (18.1%), Cabonne (18.0%), Cowra (17.1%), Oberon (16.5%), and Blayney (12.6%) all have a higher proportion employed in agriculture forestry and fishing than the average of 11.2% for the region;

o Orange (18.8%) and Western Regional (15.4%) are the only two LGAs with a higher proportion employed in health care and social assistance than the regional average of 13.5%;

o Bathurst (12.0%), Warrumbungle (11.5%), Coonamble (11.0%), Forbes (10.2%) and Lachlan 10.1%) all have a higher proportion employed in education and training than the average of 9.4% for the region;

o Forbes (11.2%), Western Plains Regional, Orange (10.9%) and Bathurst, Mid-Western Regional and Parkes (10.5%), and Cowra (10.1%) all have a higher proportion employed in retail trade than the average of 9.8% in the region;

o Mid-Western Regional (15.0%), Bogan (14.0%), Lithgow (8.9%), Parkes (7.7%), Blayney (6.4%) and Orange (5.1%) all have a higher proportion employed in mining than the average of 4.0% for the region;

o Lithgow has the highest proportion employed in accommodation and food services (9.0%), well above the average of 6.7% for the region, followed by Mid-Western Regional (7.8%), Cowra, Parkes and Western Plains with 7.4%;

o Oberon (15.4%), Bathurst (8.3%), Cowra (7.8%), Cabonne (6.8%), Blayney (6.5%) and Western Regional (5.8%) all have a higher proportion employed in manufacturing (5.6%);

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

These differences will impact on the housing needs in each LGA in the region and help shape the housing market. For example the drought will hit communities with a higher proportion employed in agriculture and is likely to impact what those residents and communities can afford in terms of housing type and tenure. To what extent the mining workforce impacts housing demand will depend in part on the phase of mining activity - for example in the construction phase there is a large construction workforce who may need to be accommodated for a relatively short time frame.

The graph below shows the industry structure for each LGA in the region, indicating both commonalities and variations between each LGA, the Central West and Orana region and the Rest of NSW.

The graph below provides an overview of the change in employment in the Central West and Orana region from 2011 to 2016. It shows a significant decline in employment in manufacturing (20.4% fewer employed in this sector in 2016 compared to 2011), in line with the trend elsewhere in NSW. A further 18.0% were lost in wholesale trade, 15.5% in electricity, gas, water and waste services, 6.7% in mining and 5.8% in transport, postal and warehousing.

Over the same period there has been strong growth in administrative and support services (20.4%), construction (17.2%), health care and social assistance (16.0%), arts and recreation services (15.1%), education and training (12.4%), agriculture, forestry and fishing (12.6%), public administration and safety (11.9%) and accommodation and food services (8.3%).

These changes can impact on the need for affordable housing. For example, workers in the accommodation and food services industry are amongst the lowest paid workers and they comprise 6.7% of the Central West and Orana workforce.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

Homelessness In NSW, the number of homeless people increased by 37% between 2011 and

2016. Note that the ABS definition of homelessness identifies a person as homeless where they do not have suitable accommodation alternatives and their current living arrangement:

o Is in a dwelling that is inadequate;o Has no tenure or their initial tenure is short and not extendable; oro Does not allow them to have control of and access to space for social

relations. A person is therefore considered homelessness when they are living in

improvised dwellings, tents, sleeping out, supported accommodation, boarding houses, temporary lodgings, overcrowded dwellings or caravan parks.

The number of people sleeping rough in NSW increased by 35% from 2011 to 2016.

Severe overcrowding accounts for 45% of all homeless people in NSW. Severe overcrowding is where usual residents in the dwellings need four or more extra bedrooms to meet occupancy standards. The number of people in severely overcrowded dwellings in NSW increased by 74% from 2011 to 2016.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

Adjusting for population growth, the rate of young people in the homeless population increased by 31% and there was a 24% increase in the rate for older people. The rate of homelessness is calculated per 10,000 population.

The table below shows the number of homeless people in the Central West and Orana region according to the 2011 and 2016 Census.

AREA All homeless persons 2011

All homeless persons

2016

change % change

Bathurst 129 129 0 0.0Blayney 29 28 -1 -3.4Bogan 3 4 1 33.3Cabonne 21 21 0 0.0Coonamble 4 3 -1 -25.0Cowra 19 19 0 0.0Western Plains Regional 128 185 57 44.5Forbes 11 9 -2 -18.2Gilgandra 15 17 2 13.3Lachlan 14 14 0 0.0Lithgow 37 36 -1 -2.7Mid-Western 53 52 -1 -1.9Narromine 23 22 -1 -4.3Oberon 6 6 0 0.0Orange 75 73 -2 -2.7Parkes 30 29 -1 -3.3Warren 0 0 0 0.0Warrumbungle 13 13 0 0.0Weddin 9 8 -1 -11.1Total 619 668 49 7.9

The table shows strong growth in the number of homeless in Western Plains Regional LGA and stable or declining numbers of homeless in most other LGAs between 2011 and 2016 in the Central West and Orana.

At the 2016 Census there were 243 Aboriginal residents of the Central West and Orana who were homeless, or 36.4% of the total homeless population in the region. As Aboriginal residents comprise only 9.0% of the total population, clearly they are overrepresented in the homeless population in the Central West and Orana.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

Additional DataMore detailed housing data and tables used in this Snapshot are available from the Local Government Housing Kit Database on the Department of Communities and Justice (DCJ) website at:

http://www.housing.nsw.gov.au/Centre+For+Affordable+Housing/NSW+Local+Government+Housing+Kit/Local+Government+Housing+Kit+Database/

More detailed information and resources on an Ageing Population is available on the Local Government NSW website, in the Resource for an Ageing Population:

http://www.lgnsw.org.au/policy/ageing

More detailed information on population, household and dwelling projections is available on the Department of Planning Industry and Environment website at:

http://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/en-us/deliveringhomes/populationandhouseholdprojections.aspx

More information on homelessness is available on the DCJ website at:

http://www.housing.nsw.gov.au/Help+with+Housing/Homelessness/

For more information/statistics on DCJ clients by DCJ districts:

http://www.facs.nsw.gov.au/facs-statistics

The Productivity Commission’s report Housing Decisions of Older Australians is at:

https://www.pc.gov.au/research/completed/housing-decisions-older-australians

www.facs.nsw.gov.au