Facts

> El Niño can lead to excess/deficit in rainfall, thus affecting food production

> The last major El Niño cost millions of Euros, damaging crops and infrastructure in Australia and Asia

> The counterpart of El Niño is La Niña; together they are phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon

Benefits

> Tracking and monitoring El Niño conditions

> Better understanding of major El Niño effects

Surface soil moisture anomalies showing El Niño conditions in February 1998. Blue colours indicate wetter than normal conditions, red colours dryer than normal conditions. Land masses displayed in grey are places where soil moisture cannot be detected due to dense vegetation or frozen surfaces.Source: Soil moisture data from ESA’s Climate Change Initiative; Based on: DMSP SSM/I & ERS 1-2 SCAT

HOW COPERNICUS SUPPORTS TRACKING A CLIMATE PHENOMENON

www.esa.int/copernicus • www.copernicus.eu

The El Niño phenomenon occurs every three to seven years when the water in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean becomes unusually warm. This sets off a chain reaction of weather events around the world – some devastating and some beneficial, having various impacts on water supply and food production. The last major El Niño emerged in 1997/98, followed by weak and moderate ones in 2002/03, 2004/05, 2006/07 and 2009/10. In 2015 this global, disruptive climate phenomenon might be on its way again. According to the World Meteorological Organization, tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperature anomalies from October 2014 to present have been 0.5°to 1.0° Celsius above normal, which have approached or exceeded various El Niño thresholds. Forecasters say that there is a 50 to 60 percent chance that El Niño conditions will continue through the summer 2015. In Europe, the main effects of El Niño are noticeable in winter and include colder, drier conditions in northern Europe, and wetter, milder conditions in southern Europe.

Copernicus satellites allow detecting and tracking the course of El Niño. Satellites collect valuable information about the Pacific Ocean’s surface, temperature and colour, which can indicate the formation of an El Niño event. In addition, satellite data concerning soil moisture reflect El Niño-related climate variations. With such data, heavy rain and drought conditions can be detected showing deviations from

average conditions. During El Niño periods, limitations in the supply of terrestrial moisture result in vegetation water stress and reduced evaporation in eastern and central Australia, southern Africa and South America. Recent declines in global average continental evaporation might reflect such a transition to El Niño conditions.

El Niño – tracking a global climate phenomenon

LAND MARINE ATMOSPHERE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CLIMATE CHANGE SECURITY

ISSUE 51 / APRIL 2015

no soil moisture observation

Soil moisture anomalies (m3/m3)

-0.10 -0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10

PACIFIC OCEAN

Policy Objectives

> European External Action Service (EEAS)

> EC Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection (ECHO)

> International Charter Space and Major Disasters

> European Climate Change Programme (ECCP)

A classic signature of El Niño is a dramatic change in sea-surface temperature across the Pacific Ocean. The left image shows warmer than usual waters along the equator (red colours) on 15 October 1997, leading to a breakdown of the equatorial current. Just one year later, after the El Niño phase subsided, the temperature distribution was radically different. On 15 October 1998, the equatorial current (blue colours) was strong.Source: Sea-surface temperature data from ESA’s Climate Change Initiative; Based on: Gap filled combination of ERS ATSR-2 & NOAA AVHRR-14

www.esa.int/copernicus • www.copernicus.eu

> Advance understanding of El Niño phenomena by fostering the use of satellites to map and monitor relevant parameters

> Improve the predictability of El Niño events through increased integration of fit-for-purpose satellite products in re-analysis and modelling

> Provide stable, long-term, climate-quality satellite data products to address El Niño and related phenomena

El Niño affects fish distribution

Copernicus services support El Niño monitoring by providing timely and accurate geo-spatial information on the state of the oceans and the land.

Products

> Ocean physics analysis (sea-surface temperature, ocean colour, sea-surface topography)

> Land parameters such as soil moisture and vegetation characteristics

> Impact assessments after El Niño events

Copernicus Contribution Next Steps

Sentinel-3 will measure sea-surface topography, sea- and land-surface temperatures and ocean- and land-surface colour by providing:

> frequent revisit times

> near-real time product delivery

> global coverage

> rapid mapping support

> high accuracy and reliability

ISSUE 51 / APRIL 2015

Sentinel-3MONITORING OCEAN PHYSICS FROM SPACE

Satellites are vital tools for monitoring the ocean and how it can affect the climate, leading to phenomena such as El Niño. This is especially true, as for vast areas of the open ocean no other data source is available.

15 October 1997 15 October 1998

-4.8 -3.6 -2.4 -1.2 0.0 1.2 2.4 3.6 4.8

Sea-surface temperature anomaly in Kelvin