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The Adaptive Imperative

Facing Up To The Real Challenges

of Our Time

Developed by Anthony HodgsonIFF member and Director, Decision Integrity Limited

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The Purpose of This Presentation

• To raise awareness that, important though climate change is, we face a far more complex set of interacting problems

• To point out that the very urgency for action on climate change mitigation could distract us from this large complex of challenges and catch us out on a far larger scale than we might expect

• To encourage a programme of creative and innovative experimentation to prepare and be ready for discontinuous change and be able to survive through it and thrive beyond it

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The Pathway to Re-orient Our Perception

OUR TITANIC PREDICAMENTOUR TITANIC

PREDICAMENT

WHY WE ARE NOT MAKING

IT

WHY WE ARE NOT MAKING

IT

REFRAMING OUR

APPROACH

REFRAMING OUR

APPROACH

THE ADAPTIVE IMPERATIVE

IN FOCUS

THE ADAPTIVE IMPERATIVE

IN FOCUS

Face the real challenge to stimulate a real response

Dig deeper into why we are “future blind”

Entertain some new perspectives

CREATE THERESILIENT SOCIETY

CREATE THECREATE THERESILIENT RESILIENT SOCIETYSOCIETY

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OUR TITANIC PREDICAMENT

Are we assuming too easily that we can fix the complex of interacting global problems?

Are the dangers to our survival really solvable within our current approaches?

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Global Problems That Are Compounding

1. CLIMATEAnthropogenic climate change2. ENERGYPeak oil and energy security3. WATERWater degradation and water

security4. WEALTHMaterial wealth inequalities and

conflicts5. GOVERNANCEAbusive geopolitical power and

resource wars6. FOODAgricultural degradation and food

security

7. WELLBEINGPsychological stress and toxic

environment8. COMMUNITYCommunity erosion and educational

meltdown9. TRADEGlobalisation and trade distortion10. HABITATInfrastructure and habitat vulnerability11. BIOSPHEREBiosphere erosion and massive

extinction12. CONSCIOIUSNESSFragmented minds and multiple

fundamentalisms

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Just a Few of Our “Deck Chair” Games

1. The “war on terror” is actually increasing global insecurity2. Carbon trading isn’t reducing greenhouse gas emissions3. The “green” revolution is actually black, dependent on oil4. Corporate social responsibility (CSR) doesn’t address a

fundamentally dangerous form of economic system5. Continued migration to the cities is inconsistent with the

actual footprints of the cities (how many planets earth?)6. Political systems, even so called democratic ones, are failing

to register the challenges or glossing over them with inadequate fixes.

7. Billions of people have become entranced by the consumer life style, and more billions aspire to it, at a time when our consumption system is the threat

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Where Current Trends Seem to be Leading Us

• A double whammy on energy – peak oil combined with carbon emissions mitigation

• Water increasingly unavailable or undrinkable• China, India and Russia challenging US hegemony• The impending collapse of global agriculture• Financial meltdown and the bankruptcy of global

insurance unable fund climate disaster recovery• Climate driven super-migration from droughts,

floods, inundation and food scarcity

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WHY WE ARE NOT MAKING IT

1. Over application of linear and reductionist thinking in policy and problem solving

2. The subterfuge of vested interests in holding onto and growing those interests

3. The myths determining inadequate “solutions”4. The defensive routines of the middle classes5. The typical psychological reaction to shock and

unanticipated difficulty

To be in shape to deal with the world ahead we need to recognise the following learning disabilities:

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1 The Trap of Linear Thinking

Fixes that FailThe economic and

psychological costs of applying a fundamental solution to a problem ensure that policies are “sticking plaster”.

The relief this give is temporary whilst the underlying problem grows.

The original problem re-emerges far worse than before.

delay

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2 The Dangers of Vested Interests

• Once an institution or family dynasty has come into power it is fundamentally driven to preserve itself.

• In a competitive world this means holding on, growing and grabbing more.

• The appearance of this may range from the “warlord” to the corporate directorate, from the political family to the business dynasty.

• The immense inertia of the middle classes as “unwitting agents” of the status quo

• The power of media to ridicule or divert attention from challenges to the status quo

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3 The Myths That Support Inadequate Solutions

Rather than tackle the fundamentals, we tend to initiate marginal exercises that seem like a solution but actually defend the status quo. These becomes the current myths of solution. For example:

• The carbon neutral myth• The biofuel substitution myth• The Bali following Kyoto myth• The myth of sustainable economic growth

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4 Defensive Routines: Camouflaging the Truth

1. I believe myself to be a decent honest person2. I have made a possible error that will cast me in an

unfavourable light3. I will cover-up the error perhaps by attributing it to

others or external conditions4. I don’t do things like this (see point 1.)5. So I will cover-up the cover-up such that the whole

question of personal error is undiscussable.6. The more my position is challenged the more

undiscussable point 2 will become

A defensive routine is psychological mechanism that keeps us in a comfort zone and prevents us from acknowledging “an inconvenient truth”. It goes something like this:

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5 Psychological Shock Denial of the Challenge

• Denial is a defense mechanism in which a person is faced with a fact with painful implications, rejects it instead, insisting that it is not true despite what may be overwhelming evidence.

• Since there are extremely disruptive and painful implications of the current cluster of global problems, defensive denial is to be expected.

• It often takes the form of declaring “it is all too complex and uncertain”

• We need help through the following stages to get through and assimilate the impact to rally our creative resources

Denial - "It can't be happening."Anger “What’s it got to do with me? I can’t do anything”Bargaining "Just let me carry on as usual until I sort myself out."Depression “This all seems very difficult and hopeless?"Acceptance “Let’s get to grips with this in a positive creative way”

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REFRAMING OUR APPROACH

1. Facing Up to Irreversibility 2. Acknowledging the Limits of Prevention3. “The Wrong Trousers”4. The Case for Adaptation5. Combining Mitigation and Adaptation6. Recognising the Consequences of Inaction7. Three Horizons of Brittle Society8. Three Horizons of Resilient Society

To

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1 Facing up to Irreversibility

When things change in a way that the phrase“when things return to normal”

can never apply.

Referred to by scientists as• “dangerous anthropogenic interference”• “overshoot”• “chaos point”• “peak production”• “extinction”

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2 Acknowledging the Limits of Prevention

• Prevention can work only if it is effective enough to stop conditions from reaching a chaos point that kicks the system into a new state, irreversible through systemic dislocation (e.g. species extinction)

Chaos point

time

effectMassive difference

in effect from only

a tiny additional

increase in variable

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3 The Wrong Trousers – International Mitigation Isn’t Working

“Kyoto has given only an illusion of action. It has become the sole focus of our efforts, and as a result, we have wasted fifteen years” (*)

(*) The Wrong Trousers:Radically Rethinking Climate Policy

Gwyn Prins & Steve RaynerJames martin Institute

MacKinder Centre

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4 The Case for Adaptation

“The first priority is to strengthen global action to slow and stop human-induced climate change and to start undertaking the necessary adaptation to the change that will happen before stability is established. The benefits of doing more clearly outweigh the costs. Delay would entail more climate change and eventually higher costs of tackling the problem.”

The Stern Review2006

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5 Combining Mitigation and Adaptation

• Reduce the human activity which is driving the crucial areas towards unknown and risky tipping points

• Problem – there is already inertia from past actions that is putting the earth-human system at risk

• Modify the human society from basic infrastructure to psychological attitude to create resilience

• Problem – humanity is in a state of both ignorance and denial with extreme learning difficulties in this area

Mitigation Adaptation

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6 Recognising the Consequences of Inaction

Delayed catastrophic change –insufficient mitigation and ill-

prepared adaptation

Containment and moderate recovery through effective mitigation and adaptation

Containment and restorative recovery through designing and

achieving the RESILIENT SOCIETY

LONG TERM SUSTAINABLE GAIN

DISRUPTION

TIME

Catastrophic runaway climate change as temperature rise

triggers tipping points

SuddenCatastrophe

DelayedCatastrophe

Long PainfulAdjustment

Adjustment & Recovery

GaianEquilibrium

Disruption eventually contained with slow mitigation – high level

of damage and human cost

SHORT TERM SHORT LIVED MITIGATION GAIN

RESILIENCE

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7 Three Horizons of a Brittle Society

In this variant the supremacy of the Horizon 1paradigm creates runaway success but at the expense of some critical condition. Failure to capture coupled with weaker innovation in Horizon 2 leads to sudden collapse. Horizon 2 is unable to make up for this.

In the background Horizon 3 continues to develop and after the initial upset and chaos of the collapse demonstrates its ability to match the new conditions and emerges as the next viable paradigm.

VIABILITY

TIME

H1

H2

H3

Emissions overshoot and

positive feedback

Cascade ofTipping points

Across the World

System

Innovation failing to keep

up with the rate of change

Prototypes of Future viability

marginalised

Collapse and21 century dark age

Gradual emergence of what works in

the newglobal

conditions

The best and the worst of the industrial age are lost

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8 Three Horizons of a Resilient Society

Horizon 1 is a current paradigm that works well until changes in the environment plus its own diminishing returns put it on a a curve of decline. Meanwhile Horizon 2 , aware of this in diverse ways is innovating more effective approaches which eventually overtake.

In the background, a completely new paradigm is emerging as Horizon 3. It appears for a long time to be marginal and ineffective but since it matches better the new environment it eventually takes over. The Horizon 2 innovations have served as enabling the transformation.

VIABILITY

TIME

H3

H1

H2

8 Three Horizons of a Resilient Society

Horizon 1 is a current paradigm that works well until changes in the environment plus its own diminishing returns put it on a a curve of decline. Meanwhile Horizon 2 , aware of this in diverse ways is innovating more effective approaches which eventually overtake.

In the background, a completely new paradigm is emerging as Horizon 3. It appears for a long time to be marginal and ineffective but since it matches better the new environment it eventually takes over. The Horizon 2 innovations have served as enabling the transformation.

VIABILITY

TIME

H3

H1

H2

Mitigation and

adaptationsoften the

landing

Strategic and grass roots

innovation on all fronts Rapid

prototyping of the new

viability paradigm

Wide ranging innovation enables a

transformative bridge

The resilient society

reaches the new Earth Community

The best of the industrial age is saved

and reframed

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THE ADAPTIVE IMPERATIVE IN FOCUS

1. Aspects of a Resilient Society2. A Resilient Society is Sustainable3. New Tools for Open Learning4. Building Institutional Capacity5. Cultivating Holistic Appreciation6. A Framework for Holistic Appreciation7. The Challenge of Discontinuity and Interruption8. The Interacting Web of 12 Chaos Points

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1 Aspects of a Resilient Society

Vision, Aspiration and Hope

Adaptive Capacity

Authentic Sustainability

Holistic Appreciation

Open Learning

PRACTICEPRACTICEPRACTICE

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2 A Resilient Society is Sustainable

A resilient society, both globally and locally, must design itself to live within the five axioms of sustainability:

1. Any society that continues to use critical resources unsustainably will collapse

2. Population growth and/or growth in rates of consumption of resources cannot be sustained

3. The use of renewable resources must proceed at a rate that is less than or equal to the rate of natural replenishment

4. The use of non-renewable resources must proceed at a rate that is declining and the rate of decline must be greater than the rate of depletion

5. Substances introduced to the environment from human activities must be minimised and rendered harmless to biosphere functions.

Based on Richard Heinberg’s Five Axioms of Sustainability

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3 A Resilient Society Uses New Tools for Open Learning

• Holistic Mapping – seeing the big picture• Systems Thinking – recognising effects can be causes• Systems Modelling – learning from imaginative simulation

ahead of time• Depth Dialogue – cocreating new understandings• Scenario Thinking – being resilient in the face of uncertainty• Complexity Modelling – recognising chaos points and

emergent changes• Strategy as Learning – never assuming a final answer

These are some of the tools that have helped us become very smarty and economic growth in corporations. We now need to apply them to the really important agenda of designing and creating the Resilient Society

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4 The Resilient Society Builds Institutional Capacity

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5 A Resilient Society Cultivates Holistic Appreciation

• Effective response to the challenges of mitigation and adaptation requires a higher level of judgement that is customary in society and its leadership

• The quality of judgement is determined by the appreciative system of the human mind

• The necessary improvement in the appreciative system of people is the step from linear reductionism to holistic appreciation

• The resilient community knows where it is in the whole system and how to develop the best from its local resources

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6 A Framework for Holistic Appreciation

The world we are involved in is massively inter-connected

Even only 12 key factors generate 66 interactions to consider

This is a basis for learning and communication, working towards the Resilient Society

Single issue thinking leads to unintended consequences

The IFF Interactive World Model

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7 The Challenge of Discontinuity and Interruption

BREAKTHROUGH

BREAKDOWN

NOTHING IN BETWEEN!

Cross roads

NOW2010-2015

The World System follows the laws revealed by complexity science which indicate that there are “tipping points” or “chaos points”. Each of the twelve areas has it’s own kind of chaos points. Like a domino effect, one sudden switch anywhere on the World Model may induce others around the whole world system; the local and global are unavoidably intertwined.

These are the stages:1. The trigger

phase2. The

accumulation phase

3. The decision-window

4. The chaos point

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8 The Interacting Web of 12 Chaos PointsBIOSPHERE

Massive species extinction and biome destruction

HABITATCoastal inundation affecting millions

CLIMATERunaway heating due to release of methane from tundra and ocean

WATERCombination of irreversible aquifer depletion and poisoning

ENERGYPeak oil followed by peak gas exacerbated by increasing demand

FOODCrop failure from shortage of oil and from climate change

TRADETrade infrastructure severely damaged by high energy costs, freak climate events and resource wars

WEALTHSevere collapse of monetary and insurance systems – wipe out of monetary wealth

SOCIETYMassive increase in stress and mental illness leading to large scale psychotic and neurotic responses to crisis

GOVERNANCEBreakdown of governability through geo-political crisis, civil unrest, migration and failures in law and order

WELL BEINGSevere escalation of debilitating and fatal illnesses, pandemics and toxic cancers

CONSCIOUSNESSBreakdown of spiritual awareness and dislocation from higher meaning and purpose

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The Resilience Challenge

1. The Four Big Area We Must Transform

2. From Factor 4 to Factor 1003. Designing Our System as Part

of Gaia4. Behaviours Towards a

Resilient Society

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ConsciousnessWellbeingCommunity

FoodTrade

Energy

WaterBiosphereClimate

GovernanceWealthHabitat

1 The Resilience Challenge:The Four Big Areas We Must Transform

LEADERSHIP

NURTURE

COMMERCE

VIABILITY

RESILIENCE

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2 The Resilience Challenge: From Factor 4 To Factor 100

In 1997 a study was made which indicated that if we reduced our resource consumption to a half and doubled our efficiency we could still be four times better off. This was called Factor Four. (*)

To realise a resilient society globally without a population reduction of at least one third (2 billion plus people), we now need to direct our efforts towards achieving FACTOR ONE HUNDRED!

That is cutting consumption to one tenth and increasing efficiency ten fold. This requires extraordinary innovation and co-operation. It can be achieved if we do not cling to the status quo.

If we do not do this then the Earth System will probably reduce the population by two thirds (- 4 billion people).

(*) Weizacker, Lovins and Lovins Factor Four Earthscan

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3 The Resilience Challenge: Designing Our Life System as Part of Gaia

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4 Taking Up the Challenge: A Resilient Society ….

• recognises the principles and the practical implications of The Adaptive Imperative

• strives to innovate its own and adopt from elsewhere approaches across the Interactive World Model that work towards Factor 100

• recognises that there will be shocks and discontinuities and evolves life-styles and infrastructure for frequent interruption, that is no longer 24X7 and “just in time” distribution of essentials

• encourages its communities to join in creative collaboration in a positive spirit of wellbeing, through spiritual, artistic and technological achievement.

• adopts an open approach to exchange and sharing learning planet wide through networked communities of practice

• respects the Earth Mother, Pachamama, the Gaian System as a super-ordinate living system and sustainer of life, not resource for exploitation

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What do you see as a resilient society?

Are you moved to make your contribution?