facing the challenges, continuing to rise - world bank...facing the challenges, continuing to state...

FACING THE CHALLENGES,

CONTINUING TO

STATE OF THE AFRICA REGIONWORLD BANK – IMF SPRING MEETINGS 2015

Francisco H. G. FerreiraChief Economist, Africa RegionThe World Bank

RISE

1. Africa’s rise

2. Structural challengesa. Harnessing demographyb. Boosting productivityc. Promoting inclusiveness

3. Immediate risksa. The end of the commodity super-cycleb. Fragility and violencec. Health challenges

4. Policy lessons, old and new

OUTLINE

1. Africa’s rise:

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

105019

60

196

119

62

196

319

64

196

519

66

196

719

68

196

919

70

197

119

72

197

319

74

197

519

76

197

719

78

197

919

80

198

119

82

198

319

84

198

519

86

198

719

88

198

919

90

199

119

92

199

319

94

199

519

96

199

719

98

199

920

00

200

120

02

200

320

04

200

520

06

200

720

08

200

920

10

201

120

12

201

3

Re

al G

DP

per

cap

ita

(US$

at

20

05

pri

ces)

Actual Trend

Source: World Development Indicators.

Twenty years of sustained economic growth have established that Africa can find its own path to successful development

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

So

uth

Su

da

n

Ce

ntr

al A

fric

an R

epu

blic

Su

da

n

Eq

ua

tori

al G

uin

ea

Ma

da

ga

scar

Ca

pe

Ve

rde

Sw

azila

nd

So

uth

Afr

ica

Gu

inea

Co

mo

ros

Ma

li

Gu

inea

-Bis

sa

u

Se

ne

ga

l

Bo

tsw

ana

Ma

uritiu

s

The

Ga

mb

ia

Ca

me

roon

Be

nin

Bu

run

di

Co

te d

'Ivo

ire

Ma

urita

nia

Se

yche

lles

Sa

o T

om

e a

nd

Princip

e

An

go

la

Na

mib

ia

Ga

bo

n

Eritr

ea

Togo

Nig

er

Sie

rra

Leo

ne

Leso

tho

Ma

law

i

Co

ng

o, R

ep.

Ke

nya

Ug

an

da

Nig

eria

Ch

ad

Bu

rkin

a F

aso

Co

ng

o, D

em

. R

ep.

Tan

zan

ia

Rw

and

a

Mo

zam

biq

ue

Zam

bia

Gh

an

a

Zim

bab

we

Eth

iopia

Lib

eria

Growth in GDP, average 2009-2013GDP growth


Progress has been sustained since the Great Recession, albeit heterogeneously

1. Africa’s rise:

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

So

uth

Su

da

n

Cen

tra

l A

fric

an

Re

pu

blic

Su

da

n

Eq

ua

toria

l G

uin

ea

Ma

da

ga

sca

r

Cap

e V

erd

e

Sw

azila

nd

So

uth

Afr

ica

Gu

ine

a

Com

oro

s

Ma

li

Gu

ine

a-B

issau

Se

ne

ga

l

Bo

tsw

an

a

Ma

uri

tiu

s

Th

e G

am

bia

Cam

ero

on

Be

nin

Bu

run

di

Co

te d

'Ivoir

e

Ma

uri

tan

ia

Se

yche

lles

Sa

o T

om

e a

nd

Prin

cip

e

An

go

la

Nam

ibia

Ga

bon

Eri

tre

a

To

go

Nig

er

Sie

rra

Leo

ne

Leso

tho

Ma

law

i

Co

ngo

, R

ep.

Ke

nya

Ug

and

a

Nig

eri

a

Cha

d

Bu

rkin

a F

aso

Con

go

, D

em

. R

ep.

Ta

nzan

ia

Rw

an

da

Mo

zam

biq

ue

Za

mb

ia

Gh

ana

Zim

bab

we

Eth

iop

ia

Lib

eria

Growth in GDP and GDP per capita, average 2009-2013

GDP growth GDP per capita growth


Progress has been sustained since the Great Recession, albeit heterogeneously

1. Africa’s rise:

4.2 6.7

3.73.5

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Sou

th S

ud

an

Cen

tral

Afr

ican

Rep

ub

lic

Sud

an

Equ

ato

rial

Gu

inea

Mad

agas

car

Cap

e V

erd

e

Swaz

ilan

d

Sou

th A

fric

a

Gu

inea

Co

mo

ros

Mal

i

Gu

inea

-Bis

sau

Sen

egal

Bo

tsw

ana

Mau

riti

us

The

Gam

bia

Cam

ero

on

Ben

in

Bu

run

di

Co

te d

'Ivo

ire

Mau

rita

nia

Seyc

hel

les

Sao

To

me

and

Pri

nci

pe

An

gola

Nam

ibia

Gab

on

Erit

rea

Togo

Nig

er

Sier

ra L

eon

e

Leso

tho

Mal

awi

Co

ngo

, Rep

.

Ken

ya

Uga

nd

a

Nig

eria

Ch

ad

Bu

rkin

a Fa

so

Co

ngo

, Dem

. Rep

.

Tan

zan

ia

Rw

and

a

Mo

zam

biq

ue

Zam

bia

Gh

ana

Zim

bab

we

Eth

iop

ia

Lib

eria

Growth in GDP and GDP per capita, average 2009-2013GDP growth GDP per capita growth

Tan

zan

ia


Seyc

he

lles

1. Africa’s rise: Progress has been sustained since the Great Recession, albeit heterogeneously

1.4

1.8

1.51.4

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Cu

mu

lati

ve g

row

th in

dex

(1

99

5=

1)

C I G X MSource: World Bank.

This growth has been investment-driven and, since 2004, increasingly financed by foreign savings

1. Africa’s rise:

1.62

1.55

1.69

1.92

1.84

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Ou

tpu

t p

er c

apit

a in

dex

(1

99

5=

1)

Growth in GDP per capita by sector

Sub-Saharan Africa Agriculture Manufacturing Other industry Services

Source: staff estimates based on WDI (2015).Note: Population-weighted average of 29 countries for which sectoral value added data can be decomposed into manufacturing and other industry

Growth has been particularly pronounced in the extractives and services sectors

1. Africa’s rise:

Africa

In a global context1. Africa’s rise:


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Europe & Central Asia Latin America &Caribbean

Middle East & NorthAfrica

Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia & Pacific South Asia

%

Average annual growth in GDP and GDP per capita, 1995-2013PPP (constant 2011 international $)

GDP GDP per capita

Outline

1. Africa’s rise




2. Structural challenges: Harnessing demography

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

40000002

01

0

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

20

32

20

34

20

36

20

38

20

40

20

42

20

44

20

46

20

48

20

50

20

52

20

54

20

56

20

58

20

60

20

62

20

64

20

66

20

68

20

70

20

72

20

74

20

76

20

78

20

80

20

82

20

84

20

86

20

88

20

90

20

92

20

94

20

96

20

98

21

00

Population projectionsMedium fertility scenario

East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean

Middle East & North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan AfricaSource: adapted to World Bank regions using data from United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2013).

Dividend or Disaster?

Highest fertility rates in the world are associated with:

⁻ Low women’s empowerment⁻ High maternal and child

mortality⁻ Low investment in education⁻ High dependency ratios ⁻ Youth employment challenges

2. Structural challenges: Harnessing demography

Urban population (millions)

2. Structural challenges:

Source: World Urbanization Prospects of the UN and WDI

Harnessing demography

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

EAP ECA LAC MENA SA SSAAFRR


A standard Solow growth decomposition, and TFP trends

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Sub-Saharan Africa Resource Rich Non-resource-rich

Per

cen

t p

er y

ear

Contribution to output per worker growth, 1995-2011

Physical Capital Human Capital Total Factor Productivity

Source: World Bank.

Boosting productivity

0.9

1

0.8

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Total Factor Productivity

SSA SSA Resource Rich SSA Resource PoorAFR AFR Resource Rich AFR Resource Poor

2. Structural challenges: Boosting productivity

AGO

ETH

GHA

KEN

MLI

MOZ

NGA

SENZAF

TZA

UGA

ZMB

IDN

PHLVNM

RUS

TUR

UKR

ARG

BRACHL

COL

MEX

URU

BGD

.1.1

5.2

.25

.3.3

5

Un

it lab

or

cost

2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Ln GDP per capita 2006 (constant 2005 US$)

Sub-Saharan Africa Other Countries

Source: Gelb, Meyer, and Ramachandran (2013) and WDI

Unit labor costs and GDP per capita


Source: PovcalNet, March 2015.

Poverty reduction during Africa’s rise has been too slow - The rise must be for all Africans

Promoting inclusiveness

East Asia and Pacific7.9

ECA 0.5

LAC 4.6

MENA 1.7

South Asia24.5

56.0

59.9 59.6 59.257.1

52.7

49.548.0 Sub-Saharan Africa

46.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2010 2011

$1

.25

a d

ay h

ead

cou

nt

(%)

2. Structural challenges: Promoting inclusiveness

Source: PovcalNet, March 2015.

The growth elasticity of poverty reduction is lower than in other regions

-2.02

-0.7

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

Thai

lan

d

Turk

ey

Egyp

t, A

rab

Rep

.

Pak

ista

n

Co

lom

bia

Ru

ssia

n F

eder

atio

n

Arg

enti

na

Kaz

akh

stan

Mo

rocc

o

Tun

isia

Ph

ilip

pin

es

Isra

el

Bh

uta

n

Nep

al

Sou

th A

fric

a

Per

u

Vie

tnam

Ro

man

ia

Ban

glad

esh

Oth

er d

evel

op

ing

cou

ntr

ies

Ind

ia

Bra

zil

Ind

on

esia

Mex

ico

Ch

ina

Tan

zan

ia

Mo

zam

biq

ue

Eth

iop

ia

Sub

-Sah

aran

Afr

ica

Nig

eria

Iraq

Most growth takes place in the services and extractives sectors, but most people work in agriculture

59.2

8.7

32.1

Sectoral composition of labor(2002-2012)

Agriculture Industry Services

Source: GDP sectoral data fom WDI, and labor force composition from International Income Distribution Database

16.4

21.8

61.8

Sectoral contribution to per capita value added (2002-2012)

Agriculture Industry Services

2. Structural challenges: Promoting inclusiveness

Outline

1. Africa’s rise




3. Immediate risks:

Source: World Bank – Commodity Markets Outlook (DEC-PG)

After rising steadily in 2002-2008, commodity prices have fallen since 2010

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

20

02

.01

20

02

.04

20

02

.07

20

02

.10

20

03

.01

20

03

.04

20

03

.07

20

03

.10

20

04

.01

20

04

.04

20

04

.07

20

04

.10

20

05

.01

20

05

.04

20

05

.07

20

05

.10

20

06

.01

20

06

.04

20

06

.07

20

06

.10

20

07

.01

20

07

.04

20

07

.07

20

07

.10

20

08

.01

20

08

.04

20

08

.07

20

08

.10

20

09

.01

20

09

.04

20

09

.07

20

09

.10

20

10

.01

20

10

.04

20

10

.07

20

10

.10

20

11

.01

20

11

.04

20

11

.07

20

11

.10

20

12

.01

20

12

.04

20

12

.07

20

12

.10

20

13

.01

20

13

.04

20

13

.07

20

13

.10

20

14

.01

20

14

.04

20

14

.07

20

14

.10

20

15

.01

Co

mm

od

ity

pri

ces

(In

dex

20

10

=10

0)

Commodity prices, 2002-2015

Energy Beverages Food Raw Materials Metals & Minerals

End of the commodity super-cycle

3. Immediate risks:


20

40

60

80

100

120

140

20

11

.01

20

11

.02

20

11

.03

20

11

.04

20

11

.05

20

11

.06

20

11

.07

20

11

.08

20

11

.09

20

11

.10

20

11

.11

20

11

.12

20

12

.01

20

12

.02

20

12

.03

20

12

.04

20

12

.05

20

12

.06

20

12

.07

20

12

.08

20

12

.09

20

12

.10

20

12

.11

20

12

.12

20

13

.01

20

13

.02

20

13

.03

20

13

.04

20

13

.05

20

13

.06

20

13

.07

20

13

.08

20

13

.09

20

13

.10

20

13

.11

20

13

.12

20

14

.01

20

14

.02

20

14

.03

20

14

.04

20

14

.05

20

14

.06

20

14

.07

20

14

.08

20

14

.09

20

14

.10

20

14

.11

20

14

.12

20

15

.01

20

15

.02

20

15

.03

Co

mm

od

ity

pri

ces

(In

dex

20

11

M1

=10

0)

Iron Ore Copper Cocoa Cotton Rubber



3. Immediate risks:Though oil price plunges of this magnitude are not unprecedented, the current episode is characterized by a higher

correlation between oil and other commodity prices

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

T T+1 T+2 T+3 T+4 T+5 T+6 T+7 T+8 T+9 T+10 T+11 T+12

Episode of sharp decline in oil prices, 1970-2015(T= peak month of oil price episode)

Nov-85 Jul-08 Jun-14

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

-0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7

Corr

ela

tion

of co

mm

od

ity j a

nd

oil

price

, 2

00

0-2

01

5

Correlation of commodity j and oil price, 1970-1999

Co-movement of commodities with oil prices has increased over the past 15 years

Agriculture Metals & Minerals Energy

Cotton

Rubber

Cocoa

Iron OreCopper


Correlation analysis among commodity prices, 1970-1999 vs. 2000-2015

Source: World Bank.Note: The table reports the correlation among year-on-year changes in international commodity prices. The above the diagonal (shaded in light red) represent correlation coefficients for the period 1970-99 while those below the diagonal (shaded in light green) correspond to the period 2000-15. Elaboration: AFRCE Staff.

Crude Oil Natural Gas Cocoa Coffee Tea Rice Wheat Sugar Tobacco Cotton Aluminum Iron Ore Copper Gold Silver

Crude Oil 1 0.3986 0.0004 0.0287 0.1489 0.1614 0.2265 0.1491 0.1342 0.2737 0.1725 0.2411 0.2883 0.3687 0.4140

Natural Gas 0.5785 1 -0.0592 -0.0829 0.1800 0.1013 0.2013 0.1130 0.0581 -0.0498 -0.1493 0.2627 -0.1058 0.1913 0.1136

Cocoa 0.1714 0.0214 1 0.4875 0.4069 0.0506 -0.1423 -0.0898 0.1447 0.2214 0.1600 -0.0242 0.1039 -0.0760 0.0508

Coffee 0.2581 0.0392 0.3193 1 0.2613 -0.1470 -0.1711 -0.1767 0.0576 0.1072 0.3026 0.0454 0.2581 -0.0540 0.0824

Tea 0.4354 -0.0015 0.3066 0.1638 1 -0.0266 -0.1195 0.1586 0.3297 0.2497 0.1459 0.0507 -0.0275 0.1014 0.1617

Rice 0.4613 0.4258 0.1242 0.0456 0.2859 1 0.5608 0.3015 -0.0581 0.3415 0.1267 -0.1076 0.4237 0.3150 0.1729

Wheat 0.6450 0.3567 0.1286 0.2670 0.3700 0.3301 1 0.1685 0.0286 0.2355 0.0873 -0.0407 0.4453 0.2141 0.1841

Sugar 0.1868 -0.0353 0.4144 0.6298 0.1959 -0.0742 -0.0660 1 0.0051 0.0014 0.1535 0.0577 0.0240 0.5049 0.2781

Tobacco -0.2095 -0.3100 0.2576 0.2199 0.1422 -0.1523 -0.2837 0.2754 1 0.1409 -0.2602 0.5334 -0.0568 -0.1564 -0.0684

Cotton 0.3375 0.1981 0.2500 0.6193 0.2940 -0.0299 0.4845 0.3884 0.0755 1 0.1994 0.0985 0.4889 0.3019 0.2371

Aluminum 0.6702 0.3877 0.1212 0.4018 0.3054 0.1704 0.4538 0.3218 -0.2495 0.4153 1 -0.2307 0.5222 0.3833 0.3991

Iron Ore 0.8056 0.4224 0.2479 0.3067 0.3913 0.2955 0.6676 0.2500 -0.1684 0.4608 0.6155 1 -0.0515 0.1017 0.1017

Copper 0.6813 0.1916 0.1604 0.3806 0.4824 0.0964 0.5401 0.3770 -0.1724 0.4830 0.8919 0.6853 1 0.2609 0.3161

Gold 0.4223 -0.0147 -0.0463 0.3636 0.4257 0.3501 0.3710 0.3852 -0.1354 0.2110 0.3222 0.3715 0.4677 1 0.7945

Silver 0.4924 0.0591 0.0492 0.5929 0.3789 0.2189 0.5258 0.4067 -0.0651 0.5694 0.5189 0.4483 0.6232 0.8230 1

3. Immediate risks: End of the commodity super-cycle

Source: World Bank.Note: The table reports the correlation among year-on-year changes in international commodity prices. The above the diagonal (shaded in light red) represent correlation coefficients for the period 1970-99 while those below the diagonal (shaded in light green) correspond to the period 2000-15. Elaboration: AFRCE Staff.

Crude Oil Natural Gas Cocoa Coffee Tea Rice Wheat Sugar Tobacco Cotton Aluminum Iron Ore Copper Gold Silver

Crude Oil 1 0.3986 0.0004 0.0287 0.1489 0.1614 0.2265 0.1491 0.1342 0.2737 0.1725 0.2411 0.2883 0.3687 0.4140

Natural Gas 0.5785 1 -0.0592 -0.0829 0.1800 0.1013 0.2013 0.1130 0.0581 -0.0498 -0.1493 0.2627 -0.1058 0.1913 0.1136

Cocoa 0.1714 0.0214 1 0.4875 0.4069 0.0506 -0.1423 -0.0898 0.1447 0.2214 0.1600 -0.0242 0.1039 -0.0760 0.0508

Coffee 0.2581 0.0392 0.3193 1 0.2613 -0.1470 -0.1711 -0.1767 0.0576 0.1072 0.3026 0.0454 0.2581 -0.0540 0.0824

Tea 0.4354 -0.0015 0.3066 0.1638 1 -0.0266 -0.1195 0.1586 0.3297 0.2497 0.1459 0.0507 -0.0275 0.1014 0.1617

Rice 0.4613 0.4258 0.1242 0.0456 0.2859 1 0.5608 0.3015 -0.0581 0.3415 0.1267 -0.1076 0.4237 0.3150 0.1729

Wheat 0.6450 0.3567 0.1286 0.2670 0.3700 0.3301 1 0.1685 0.0286 0.2355 0.0873 -0.0407 0.4453 0.2141 0.1841

Sugar 0.1868 -0.0353 0.4144 0.6298 0.1959 -0.0742 -0.0660 1 0.0051 0.0014 0.1535 0.0577 0.0240 0.5049 0.2781

Tobacco -0.2095 -0.3100 0.2576 0.2199 0.1422 -0.1523 -0.2837 0.2754 1 0.1409 -0.2602 0.5334 -0.0568 -0.1564 -0.0684

Cotton 0.3375 0.1981 0.2500 0.6193 0.2940 -0.0299 0.4845 0.3884 0.0755 1 0.1994 0.0985 0.4889 0.3019 0.2371

Aluminum 0.6702 0.3877 0.1212 0.4018 0.3054 0.1704 0.4538 0.3218 -0.2495 0.4153 1 -0.2307 0.5222 0.3833 0.3991

Iron Ore 0.8056 0.4224 0.2479 0.3067 0.3913 0.2955 0.6676 0.2500 -0.1684 0.4608 0.6155 1 -0.0515 0.1017 0.1017

Copper 0.6813 0.1916 0.1604 0.3806 0.4824 0.0964 0.5401 0.3770 -0.1724 0.4830 0.8919 0.6853 1 0.2609 0.3161

Gold 0.4223 -0.0147 -0.0463 0.3636 0.4257 0.3501 0.3710 0.3852 -0.1354 0.2110 0.3222 0.3715 0.4677 1 0.7945

Silver 0.4924 0.0591 0.0492 0.5929 0.3789 0.2189 0.5258 0.4067 -0.0651 0.5694 0.5189 0.4483 0.6232 0.8230 1

Correlation analysis among commodity prices, 1970-1999 vs. 2000-2015


Impact on aggregate terms of trade of movements in international commodity prices in SSA

Source: staff estimates based on commodity prices (Commodity Markets Outlook, DEC-PG) and commodity trade (WITS)

⁻ 39 African countries suffer a negative ToTshock (88% of population, 92% of GDP)

⁻ Overall average ToT loss is 8% per year

⁻ 9 countries have a loss greater than 10% per year


2011-2015 forecast:

Impact on aggregate terms of trade of movements in international commodity prices in SSA


- Africa’s oil trade surplus equals 12% of GDP

- Oil among top 5 export items in 18 countries


2010-2012:

2014-2015 forecast:

- 36 African countries suffer a negative ToTshock (80% of population, 70% of GDP)

- Overall average ToT loss is 18%

- 14 countries have a loss greater than 10%


3. Immediate risks:

-45

-35

-25

-15

-5

5

AGO SSD COG NGA TCD SDN GAB GNQ MRT ZAR CMR GIN LBR SLE

Aggregate Terms of Trade effectMore vulnerable SSA countries

Agriculture Metals & Minerals Energy Total

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

GH

A

BEN

TGO

RW

A

BD

I

MW

I

BFA

SWZ

CA

F

ETH

CIV

CP

V

MLI

GN

B

UG

A

TZA

MU

S

GM

B

ZWE

MD

G

SYC

CO

M

Aggregate Terms of Trade effectLess vulnerable SSA countries

Agriculture Metals & Minerals Energy Total


2014-2015 forecast:

After decreasing throughout the mid-2000s, violent deaths due to conflict – and

violence against civilians in particular – has steadily risen again since 2012.

3. Immediate risks: Fragility and violence

Over the last decade, the region saw a reduction in traditional types of armed conflict and actors, including interstate violence and rebellion, and an increase in non-traditional forms of conflict and conflict actors that increasingly target civilians

Source: ACLED


Agents of violence by total conflict involvement, Africa, 1997-2014

Contrary to previous decades, violence is largely concentrated in a small number of subregions

The

Sahel

Northern

Nigeria

Darfur

Eastern

DRC

Sudan &

South Sudan

Somalia &

Kenya


Ebola outbreak is slowing, but progress toward zero cases has also slowed with several reverses in Sierra Leone and Guinea

Over 10,000 deaths and 25,000 cases to date

Economic impacts in three core countries are devastating

Figure source: Martin (2015)

3. Immediate risks:

4.3

6.8

8.9

-0.2

3.0

-5.0-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Guinea Liberia Sierra Leone

2015 Forecast Growth Rates

Pre-Ebola forecast 2015

-12.8

≈-12

-14

Health challenges

Ebola has highlighted weak health systems

⁻ Maternal mortality has fallen in Africa, but remains more than double that of developing regions

⁻ Healthcare workers are lowest of any region & 27% of global average

⁻ Disease surveillance systems are weak across much of the continent

⁻ Affects risk not only for infectious disease, but all health conditions

World

Developing Regions

990

Sub-Saharan Africa510

LAC

South Asia

East Asia0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013

Maternal deaths per 100,000 live births

Source: WHO, World Bank, et al. (2014)

3. Immediate risks: Health challenges

Health expenditures remain very low in SSA

3. Immediate risks:

Source: aggregate level data from WBG HNP database and data for developing countries only

Health challenges

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Public health expenditure per capita (current US$)

EAP ECA LAC MENA AFR SAR

Outline

1. Africa’s rise




4. Policy lessons: old and new

I. For the long run

1. Stronger institutions of governance⁻ Better able to manage both external and internal shocks

2. Human capital / skills⁻ Education: invest in quality and gender equality

3. Infrastructure⁻ Close the energy, transport and logistics deficits.

4. Policy lessons: old and new

II. For the short run

Policy making in times of scarcity

1. Treat the commodity price shock as “permanent” rather than “temporary”

2. Borrow with moderation

3. Raise domestic savings – public and private

4. Diversify revenues, as well as output

5. Prioritize spending: reduce fuel subsidies, target social spending on the poor

6. Enhance public investment management capacity – no room for waste

7. Policy coordination and economic integration within Africa

8. Make a deliberate effort to cushion the poor – even if at the expense of others

Thank you

facing the challenges, continuing to rise - world bank...facing the challenges, continuing to state...

Documents