“Public sentiment is everything. With public sentiment, nothing can fail. Without it, nothing can succeed.”

President Abraham Lincoln

Facing Facts Forum 2008

Facing Facts 2008Public Forum

Santee-Lynches Regional COGSept. 24, 2009

Facing Facts 2008• 2006 The original tri-county report was completed by Santee-Lynches Regional COG and the United Way of Sumter, Clarendon and Lee Counties using the input of about 30 community and industrial leaders and concerned citizens who represented diverse segments of the three counties.

• 2008 Tri-county report Update (Facing Facts 2008) was completed.

• 2008 Separate Kershaw County report was completed as part of Facing Facts 2008 by Santee-Lynches Regional COG and the United Way of Kershaw County using the input of about 30 community and industrial leaders and concerned citizens who represented diverse segments of the county.

If we as a community know where it is

we need to go:

1) We as a community need to understand where we are now; and …

2) In the process, identify and commit together to overcome the barriers that prevent us from achieving our common goals.

County job levels – 2000 through 2008

County ManufacturingNon-

manufacturing Total jobs

% change in total

jobs

  2000 2008 2000 2008 2000 2008  

Clarendon 1,646

886

5,994

6,722

7,640

7,608

-0.4%

Kershaw 5,078

3,679

12,974

13,466

18,052

17,145

-5.0%

Lee

459

485

3,584

3,286 4,043

3,771

-6.7%

Sumter

12,685 7,127

29,018

29,749

41,703

36,876

-11.6%

TOTALS

19,868

12,178

51,570

53,222

71,438

65,400 -8.5%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2000-'08 data

Totals exclude military so the approximate 6,100 active-duty personnel at Shaw AFB aren’t included.

Manufacturing dependence, net job losses – 2000-‘08

County Manufacturing dependence in 2000

Total overall job loss from 2000-‘08

Lancaster 34.4% -19.2%

Greenwood 33.5% -9.7%

Sumter 30.4% -11.6%

Anderson 29.6% -7.0%

Orangeburg 25.4% -5.2%

STATE 18.9% +2.9%

Florence 18.2% -1.9%

Aiken 16.9% +2.0%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2000-'08 data

-7,690manufacturingjob losses from

2000-2008for region.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2000-'08 data

+1,652 non-manufacturing

job gains from 2000-2008

for region.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2000-'08 data

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2000-’09 data

Change in residents commuting out for work from 2002-’06

County Change in commuters

Clarendon -227

Kershaw +1,428

Lee +142

Sumter -306

REGION +1,037

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics, 2002-’06 data

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000-’08 data

WEIGHING THE COSTSINCARCERATION - VERSUS - EDUCATION

1 Adult Inmate 1 Juvenile 1 Student

incarcerated incarcerated

in state in state In State

$44.98/day $300/day $22.35/day

$16,462/year $109,500/year $8,159/year

THE DIFFERENCES

Adult Inmate/Student Juvenile/Student

Cost per day nearly double Cost per day more than

(1.77 times as expensive) 11 times as expensive

Sources: Fiscal 2008 current operational expenses from S.C. Department of Corrections, S.C. Department of Juvenile Justice, and S.C. Department of Education

1 Studenteducatedin state

$25.39/day$9,268/year

Average Educational Careerannual earnings attainment earnings (40 years)

$16,121/yr No High School Diploma $644,840

$24,572/yr High School Diploma $982,880

$32,152/yr Associate Degree $1,286,080

$45,678/yr Bachelor Degree $1,827,120

$55,641/yr Master Degree $2,225,640

$86,833/yr Doctorate Degree $3,473,320

Educational Attainment and Earnings Potential

Source: U.S. Census 2000

• Strong academic skills– Math and Math Reasoning– Science– Writing / Literacy

• Applied and social skills– Teamwork– Critical thinking / problem solving– Communication– Work ethic– Time management

• Tech-savvy

RESULT = Creative and innovative workforce– Capacity to a) make improvements on the product and service line and b)

conduct out-of-the-box breakthrough thinking if started fresh with the product or service. An entrepreneurial environment to meet customers’ needs in a unique and new way even if it means building whole new competencies.

Skill sets for now and the future

Competitive jobs in demand in the future

REGION

Registered Nurses, Licensed Practical and Vocational Nurses

Truck Drivers

Pharmacists

Construction managers

Dental assistants & hygienists

Retail Supervisors/Managers

STATE

Registered Nurses

Truck Drivers

Pharmacists

Sales Representatives

Accountants & Auditors

Lawyers

Paralegals & Legal Assistants

Loan Officers

Executive secretaries & Administrative Assistants

Network Systems & Data Communication Analysts

Source: S.C. Department of Commerce, 2006-’16 projectionsSpecific criteria met: Projected job growth during timeframe and salary must meet the current average regional or state threshold ($31,550 Region; $36,050 State).

Central Carolina Tech. College enrollment

Year Fall 2000

Fall 2001

Fall 2002

Fall 2003

Fall 2004

Fall 2005

Fall 2006

Fall 2007

Fall 2008

Fall 2009

Percent change ’00-’09

Enrollment of credit students*

2,546 2,962 3,265 3,191 3,259 3,244 2,931 3,283 3,206 3,982 +56.4%

* Credit students are enrolled in a formal program of study to earn a certificate, diploma or degree. This figure is generally considered the college’s official enrollment.

611 (15.3%) are 18 or 19 yrs. old

525 (16.4%) are 18 or 19 yrs. old

542 (16.5%) are 18 or 19 yrs. old

Average student age: 27.8 years old

USC Sumter enrollmentYear Fall

2000Fall 2001

Fall 2002

Fall 2003

Fall 2004

Fall 2005

Fall 2006

Fall 2007

Fall 2008

Fall 2009

Percent change ’00-’09

Full-time freshmen from high school

193 191 200 171 200 183 224 250 193 193* 0.0%

Total enrollment

1,173 1,184 1,149 1,184 1,042 1,020 1,088 1,174 1,235 1,235* +5.3%

Morris College enrollmentYear Fall

2000Fall 2001

Fall 2002

Fall 2003

Fall 2004

Fall 2005

Fall 2006

Fall 2007

Fall 2008

Fall 2009

Percent change ’00-’08

Full-time freshmen from high school

265 267 282 270 231 205 247 299 294 N/A +10.9%

Total enrollment

940 986 1,049 1,007 897 863 824 893 948 N/A +0.9%

* Fall 2009 totals are school’s estimates

SO, WHERE ARE WE?Nationally – August 2009, Kiplinger Newsletter

• It will be 2012 before manufacturing and production of goods reaches back to pre-recession levels.

• Only 2/3 of manufacturing jobs lost since January 2008 will return by 2012. Relentless automation and globalization of labor intensive industry will continue.

SO, WHERE ARE WE?Nationally (continued)…

• Leading the way back from recession: Production of high tech goods; Green technology products; Health information technology; and Material and equipment to bring high speed

internet to small towns

SO, WHERE ARE WE?Regionally:

• Rural areas trail the recovery of state and national economies by a period of 12 to 18 months.

• Addition of 350 Third Army personnel at Shaw AFB projected for June/July 2010 will be a shot in the arm for the local economy.

• Balance of Third Army Military assigned to Shaw AFB, at least 700 more, are targeted to arrive 2011/2012.

SO, WHERE ARE WE?Regionally (continued)…

• SC’s rural areas like the Santee-Lynches’ region should focus on:(1) education – enhancement of high school graduation rates and entry into post-secondary by youth and adults(2) capitalizing on non-manufacturing trends job opportunities created as a result of job growth areas identified above

SO, WHERE ARE WE?Regionally (continued)…

(3) investing in community quality of life assets

• Accomplishing (1) above generates the opportunity to take advantage of new job opportunities identified in (2) and (3) ensures community livability for new families seeking to relocate.

BUSINESS AT HOMEThis amounts to taking care of business at home by creating a community-by-community environment to accomplish the following:• Transition at-large community’s willingness to embrace constructive change;• Encourage a new openness to redesign and delivery of pivotal programs and services; monitoring outcomes and adjusting to needs;• Enhance state and local public officials’ responsiveness to support community’s desire for constructive change.

WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN NOW?

There is a clear need for a diversity of champions to lead our regional community in changing its present paradigm:– Black, Hispanic, and White Citizens– Men, Women, and Youth– Young and Old– Low Income and Wealthy

WHERE TO START? As a volunteer champion, know and understand

both the short- and long-term significance of the current numbers and trends.

As an important community component –determine to positively affect the climate of public opinion.

Network and sustain a dialogue with both non-elected and elected community leadership –agreement to support essential community values and necessary changes.

IN CLOSING … Your time investment and comments here

will be honored with a summary report of your individual table discussions.

A process-steering committee has been organized to help interpret and guide the community forum process.

Future forums will help improve returns back to the community of essential information needed to re-evaluate priorities.

Facing Facts 2008 Reports and Tonight’s

Presentation are Available for Download on our

COG Web site:

www.santeelynchescog.org