facilitating group decisionmaking with the macbeth …web.ist.utl.pt/carlosbana/bin/facilitating...

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Facilitating Group Decisionmaking with theMACBETH Sociotechnical Approach

Carlos A. Bana e Costa

Department of Engineering and Management of IST,Technical University of Lisbon

Operational Research Group, Department of ManagementLondon School of Economics and Political Science

http://web.ist.utl.pt/carlosbana

GDN 2008Coimbra, 17-20 June

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From Larry Phillips’s presentation:Strategy & Socio-technical design

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Application context: Public Strategic Planning

Two Cases

Development ofa Long Term VisionforPuerto Rico 2025

A comprehensive intervention context

More than 100 stakeholders involved

Development ofthe Social Development and Human Rights Medium Term Strategic Plan forPernambuco 2008-11

A focused intervention context

About 30 actors involved

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PR 2025:An government initiative to create convergence on

a strategy for Puerto Rico’s long-term future …

Cuba

United States

Haiti DominicanRepublic

Mexico

CostaRica

GuatemalaHonduras

Belize

HondurasEl Salvador

JamaicaPuertoRico

… engage community and private sector leadersand provide for the participation of local experts

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Pernambuco 2008-11:An government initiative to create convergence on

a strategy for Pernambuco’s medium termsocial development…

Pernambuco

… engage and align technical and political leaders of the new Secretary of State for Social Development and Human Rights (SEDSDH) and provide for the participation of local experts

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What kind of approach?

Normative Prescriptive Constructive

Participation

→ a sociotechnical approach

Soft? Hard? Both: SmartStrategic planning with

multi-criteria decision analysis anddecision conferencing

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Sociotechnical process designCherns, A. (1976). The Principles of sociotechnical design. Human Relations, 29, 8, 783-792.

“Organizational objectives are best met [...] by the joint optimization of the technical and the social aspects, thus exploiting the adaptability and innovativeness of people in attaining goals instead of over-determining technically the matter in which these goals should be attained.”

Requisite Decision ModellingPhillips, L.D. (1984). A theory of requisite decision models. Acta Psychologica, 56, 29-48.

Social component: Methodological guidelines

Definition: Model is requisite when its form and content are sufficient to resolve the issues of concern. Model generation: Through iterative and consultative interaction amongst specialists and key players, facilitated by an impartial decision analyst.

Process ConsultationSchein, E. (1999). Process Consultation Revisited: Building the Helping Relationship.

The problem and the solution belong to the client not to the consultant.

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The Decision Conferencing Process

Awarenessof issue

Actions

KeyPlayers

ExploreIssues

BuildModel

ExploreModel

Shared Understanding Commitment

Prepare-objectives-participants-calling note

Compare: Gut⇔Model

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Design of the social process

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Client:Secretary of Social Development and Human Rights (SEDSDH) of the Government of the Brazilian State of Pernambuco

Objective of the intervention:To help SEDSDH develop its medium term strategic plan(PPA 2008-2001)

Methodology:MACBETH socio-technical approach for strategic planning

Duration of the decision conferencing process:Five consecutive days (from 11 to 15 June 2007)

Participants:About thirty technical and political actors

2008-11

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Challenge: Design of a multicriteria interactive approach to strategic planning with the direct involvement of politicians

The methodology should be so attractive as to get the politiciansto be willing to participate in the process as representatives of the population and be prepared to be present in open discussion sessions.

The methodology should be applied through workshops or decision conferences organised in such a way that the effects of preferences and choices taken by participants during the sessions would be quickly reported in a friendly way. So that those effects could beeasily understood by all the participants, thus enabling collective learning and the generation and debate of new ideas.

C.A. Bana e Costa et al., 2002Multicriteria Approach for Strategic Town Planning: The Case of Barcelos

in D. Bouyssou et al (eds.), Aiding Decisions with Multiple Criteria, Kluwer (429-456).

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“Formulate, execute, monitor and evaluate, along with the society and other governmental entities, integrated public policies in the field of social development and human rights which will allow to transform, in a conscientious and desired way, the social reality of the pernanbucansin a situation of vulnerability and risk”.

Challenge

• 42% of the Pernanbucan population live with less then R$ 120,00/month per capita, finding them selves in a situation of vulnerability due to extreme or moderate poverty

• 33,3% are functional illiterates (15 years or older)

• The State of Pernambuco is the 8th economy among all 27 Brazilian States, but one of the lowest Human Development Indexes and one of the biggest Social Inequality Indexes

Way out:Sustainable

emancipatorypolicies

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“Formulate, execute, monitor and evaluate, along with the society and other governmental entities, integrated public policies in the field of social development and human rights which will allow to transform, in a conscientious and desired way, the social reality of the pernanbucansin a situation of vulnerability and risk”.

Challenge

• 42% of the Pernanbucan population live with less then R$ 120,00/month per capita, finding them selves in a situation of vulnerability due to extreme or moderate poverty

• 33,3% are functional illiterates (15 years or older)

• The State of Pernambuco is the 8th economy among all 27 Brazilian States, but one of the lowest Human Development Indexes and one of the biggest Social Inequality Indexes

Way out:Sustainable

emancipatorypolicies

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Two panels: A Technical Panel and an Evaluation Panel with well defined responsibilities and tasks in the process

Evaluation Panel

Technical Panel

• Structures the objectives from SEDSDH mission

• Conceives intervention actions (projects) and structures coherent programs (packages of projects) to achieve the objectives

• Organizes factual information about the programs

• Technical experts of SEDSDH

• (representatives of the seven entities that integrate SEDSDH (departments and institutes))

• Politicaldecision-makers of SEDSDH

• The secretary of state and the sub-secretaries (leaders of the 7 units merged in SEDSDH)

Participants Tasks

3days

2days

• Validates and weights the fundamental objectives

• Evaluates the extent to which each program (package of projects) contributes to achieve the objectives

• Evaluates the doability of each program

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Two panels: A Technical Panel and an Evaluation Panel with well defined responsibilities and tasks in the process

Evaluation Panel

Technical Panel

• Structures the objectives from SEDSDH mission

• Conceives intervention actions (projects) and structures coherent programs (packages of projects) to achieve the objectives

• Organizes factual information about the programs

• Technical experts of SEDSDH

• (representatives of the seven entities that integrate SEDSDH (departments and institutes))

• Politicaldecision-makers of SEDSDH

• The secretary of state and the sub-secretaries (leaders of the 7 units merged in SEDSDH)

Participants Tasks

3days

2days

• Validates and weights the fundamental objectives

• Evaluates the extent to which each program (package of projects) contributes to achieve the objectives

• Evaluates the doability of each program

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PearlsOysters

White elephants Bread and butter

Low

Low

High

Hig

hO

vera

llB

enef

it

Doability

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3-days Structuring Decision Conference with Technical panel only

2-days Evaluation Decision Conference with the Evaluation Panel

Members of the Technical panel participated as observers in the Evaluation Decision Conference

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Technical component:Several DSS used to support structuring & multicriteria evaluation activities (Decision Explorer, STRAD, M-MACBETHEquity)

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Actividades do projeto1

ActivityExample: Structuring the objectives

Group open-discussion of SEDSDH mission, major challenges and concerns

Each participant was asked to write (in post-its) the fundamental aspects, concerns and/or objectives that, in his/her opinion, better explain the mission

Each participant was asked to place his/her own post-its in the wall, in such a way that the post-its would form groups of similar concerns

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Activity

The post-its were read out loud, one by one, and their meaning discussed. Actions were separated from objectives. When agreed, each objective was entered in the Decision Explorer software, to generate a first cognitive map.

This map represents the objectives written on the post-its as well means-ends relations between them.

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Structuring of the underlying fundamental objectives to the SEDSDH’s mission (cont.)

Activity

After two days of work and group discussions, the technical panel agreed of the mainend-objectives and mean-objectives.

Three key objectives were later validated by the politicians and used to evaluate strategies

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Technical component:Multicriteria value measurement with MACBETH

www.M-MACBETH.com

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Benchrk 2

Strategy B

Strategy A

Status Quo

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MACBETH weighting procedure

Strongto

Very Strong

Strongto

Very Strong

Very strongto

Extreme

Qualitative swing judgementsSum=100%

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2) to compare the difference in overall value between any two swings (such that the first is more attractive than the second)

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Project Phases

IMPLEMENTATION LAUNCH• Transfer responsibilities to the

independent entity“The Launch”

STRATEGIC PRIORITIES• What are the strategies that will mostly

contribute to reach the vision?“The strategies”

VISION• Where does Puerto Rico want to be

in 2025?“The fundamental objectives”

EVALUATION/ASSESSMENT• Where is Puerto Rico today?

“The need for action”

October 2003 – January 2004

January –March 2004

April – May 2004

August – November 2003

The Puerto Rico 2025 project was structured around four phases

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Wildcards

Aug – Nov 2003 Oct – Dec 2003 Jan – Mar 2004 Apr – May 2004

Cuba

United States

Haiti DominicanRepublic

Mexico

CostaRica

GuatemalaHonduras

Belize

HondurasEl Salvador

JamaicaPuertoRico

Transition and implementation

launch

Strategies: development & prioritization

VisioningAssessment

• Strategic Plan:Short-term actions (2004-08) and long-term strategies (2009-25) required to achieve desired Vision

• Implementation Plan• Full set of performance

metrics and progress-tracking mechanisms

• Implementation entityin placeEconomic

development

Infrastructure/ environment

Social development

Culture

Transport

Land Use and Environment

Utilities

Culture

Innovation and Enterprise

Opportunities and Income

Competitiveness, Productivity and Connectivity

Health

Public safety

Education

Where are we today?

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Internal and external assessment of the current situation in each sector. Example: SWOT Analysis of Puerto Rico’s Culture



launch


VisioningAssessment

• Puerto Ricans are amongst the most happy people in the world according to a study published by the British magazine New Scientist

• Puerto Rico has developed and exported to the world some forms of unique cultural expressions

• Craftsmen and artisans in Puerto Rico have developed a unique style, producing high quality craftsmanship and utilizing very diverse materials and techniques

• Historical sites and colonial architecture in PR has few parallels in the world

• The ICP among other cultural institutions is opening new museums and fine art centres across the island

• Puerto Rico possesses a series of inherent strengths for film production

Strengths

• In many cases, the influence and, to a certain extent, the assimilation of American values has occurred at the expense of the traditional Puerto Rican culture

• Those who express pride about their traditional Puerto Rican culture are often perceived as “anti-Americans”

• The unique relationship with the US is not explored adequately to leverage funding alternatives, and to take advantage of the market size in the US and the heritage link with the Puerto Rican and Latino communities

• Despite some inherent strengths for film production, Puerto Rico is perceived in the motion picture industry in the US as a location without adequate infrastructure and with higher costs than other places in the US and LA for intl. productions

• The fear of street criminality pushes the population away from participating in cultural activities

• The cultural activities offered do not always match the real demand of the community that will benefit from it, due to the lack of communication with the society in the planning process

Weaknesses

• The exposure of youth to art expressions reduce the probability of them incurring in risk-taking behaviour

• Turn Puerto Rico into:• An international music production centre• An international film production centre• The Latin America art capital

Opportunities

• Puerto Rican culture is perceived in some US communities as a second rate culture

• Lack of an adequate inclusion of the cultural topic in the education curricula at all levels can end up accelerating the process of assimilation of external influences in detriment of the local culture and values

Threats

• Puerto Ricans are amongst the most happy people in the world according to a study published by the British magazine New Scientist

• Puerto Rico has developed and exported to the world some forms of unique cultural expressions

• Craftsmen and artisans in Puerto Rico have developed a unique style, producing high quality craftsmanship and utilizing very diverse materials and techniques

• Historical sites and colonial architecture in PR has few parallels in the world

• The ICP among other cultural institutions is opening new museums and fine art centres across the island

• Puerto Rico possesses a series of inherent strengths for film production

Strengths

• In many cases, the influence and, to a certain extent, the assimilation of American values has occurred at the expense of the traditional Puerto Rican culture

• Those who express pride about their traditional Puerto Rican culture are often perceived as “anti-Americans”

• The unique relationship with the US is not explored adequately to leverage funding alternatives, and to take advantage of the market size in the US and the heritage link with the Puerto Rican and Latino communities

• Despite some inherent strengths for film production, Puerto Rico is perceived in the motion picture industry in the US as a location without adequate infrastructure and with higher costs than other places in the US and LA for intl. productions

• The fear of street criminality pushes the population away from participating in cultural activities

• The cultural activities offered do not always match the real demand of the community that will benefit from it, due to the lack of communication with the society in the planning process

Weaknesses

• The exposure of youth to art expressions reduce the probability of them incurring in risk-taking behaviour

• Turn Puerto Rico into:• An international music production centre• An international film production centre• The Latin America art capital

Opportunities

• Puerto Rican culture is perceived in some US communities as a second rate culture

• Lack of an adequate inclusion of the cultural topic in the education curricula at all levels can end up accelerating the process of assimilation of external influences in detriment of the local culture and values

Threats

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Example of the outcome of the visioning phase:A statement of the Vision for Culture in 2025



launch


VisioningAssessment

• Broad-based community outreach and input gathering

• Workshops and brainstorming with communities and consultative panels

• Macroeconomic forecasts and global scenario planning (likely geopolitical, socio-economic, technological and competitive developments)

• “Decision conferences”with stakeholders and experts to— Identify and develop

policy options to achieve the strategic objectives

— Prioritize economic, social and environmental strategic objectives

• Multi-criteria decision analysis to evaluate/ prioritize the strategic alternatives

• Identification of resources, funding and timing required for each initiative

• Engagement/establishment of entities responsible for managing/overseeing multi-stakeholder implementation

• Transition of responsibility to entity (or entities)

• Understand PR’s current situation in terms of economic, social and infrastructure/environment development— Collect/analyze

existing data/studies— Conduct community

meetings, consultative panels and interviews

• Benchmark against other regions/countries

• Identify PR’s key socioeconomic strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats

Act

iviti

es

We are a people that, regardless of where we may be, appreciate those cultural values that contribute to the development of solidarity, creativity, tolerance, and diversity.

We make the most of our cultural heritage and talent to become one of the main centers of production and distribution of cultural goods and services.

We all enjoy access to a wide range of cultural assets and entertainment options that make daily living more full, conscious, and satisfying.

In 2025 ...– Cultural Heritage – Puerto Rico values, maintains, guards, supports, and benefits spiritually and

economically from its artistic, architectural, and environmental legacy. – Cultural Production – The cultural production of Puerto Rico (theater, radio, cinema, television, music,

literature, dance, crafts, plastic arts, among others) is recognized for its excellence and has effective local and distribution channels.

– Communications – We encourage the media to be socially responsible. – Entertainment – There is a wide range of cultural activities and entertainment for all, using different

programs and cultural institutions, mass communication, installations, and recreational areas. – Values – We state and share values of inclusion, based on ethics, democracy, solidarity, respect for

man’s dignity and human rights that support the integrated development of the individual and the community for the enjoyment of life.

– Beliefs and Traditions – Individuals, families, and communities cherish, maintain, guard, promote, and benefit spiritually, socially, and economically from its festivals, traditions, customs, and beliefs.

Where do we want to be in the future?

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Economic Development


Competitiveness and Connectivity

Income and Opportunity

Social Development

Health

Education

Public Safety

Infrastructure/ Environment

Utilities


Transport

Culture

Culture

Strategies were evaluated and prioritized in 10 Decision Conferences

The process of developing and prioritizing the strategies for Puerto Ricomobilized more than 100 stakeholders


launch


VisioningAssessment

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Identification of objectives

and preliminary

development of strategies

Pre-validation of objectives

and strategies with key

stakeholders –individual interviews

Validation workshops

(one for each area of

interest/ panel)

Decision Conferences at the panel level (one for

each area of interest)

STEP 1 STEP 2 STEP 3 STEP 5

Pre-evaluation and

consolidation of cross-effects

STEP 4


launch


VisioningAssessment

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Key Steps – Phase 3


and preliminary


STEP 1

OBJECTIVES• Identify objectives

within each area based on respective vision statements

• Develop preliminary set of strategies based on:

– Assessment– Vision– Benchmarks/

experiences from other countries

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Strategies were generated through a top-down ends-means structuring process: Example for the Education sector

Education

Health

Public Safety

Innovation ...

Land & Enviornment

For each one of the areas of interest…

TASK 1:IDENTIFY

FUNDAMENTAL OBJECTIVES (Based

on vision statement)

TASK 2:IDENTIFY MEANS

OBJECTIVES

TASK 3:IDENTIFY LEVERS

TASK 4:DEVELOP

STRATEGIES AND EXAMPLE OF

ACTIONS

This task defined thefundamental objectivesthat would be used in

the DecisionConferences

Each one of thefundamental objectiveswas then broken intomeans objectives that

helped explain andframe the content

The levers reflect keyelements that could be acted upon in order to

achieve each meanobjective

The strategies, andexamples of respective

policy actions, weredeveloped for each

lever

1. DEVELOP A HIGH QUALITY EDUCATION SYSTEM

2. GUARANTEE ACCESS TO EDUCATION FOR ALL

3. GUARANTEE AN EFFICIENT EDUCATIONAL SYSTEM

4. GUARANTEE AN EDUCATION SYSTEM BASED ON INNOVATION…

1.1 Guarantee that the educational system is an environment that promotes the development of ethical and civic values

1.2 Develop the Professional and vocational skills needed to…

1.3 Develop the Entrepreneurial attitude to…

1.4 Develop a continuous learning attitude in all members of society…

a. Curriculumb. Professorsc. Good Environmentd. Integration with the communitye. Methodsf. Infrastructure & Resourcesg. Integration with Labor marketsh. Extra-curricular activitiesI. Valuation model

I) Guarantee that the curriculum addresses sufficiently the development of ethical and civic values:

- Reallocate school hours to the detriment of traditional academic courses

- Increase the daily hours of class in order to include programs/courses on values..

- Alter the current content / courses addressing ethical and civic values

Illustrative

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Vision Statements

Economic Social Infrastructure/ environment Culture

FUNDAMENTALOBJECTIVES

… … … … … … … … … … … … … … …… … … … … … … … … … … … … … …… … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … …

Inn. & Enterp.

Comp. & Conn.

Opport. & Inc. Health Public

Safety Educ. Utilities Land & Envir. Transp. Culture

… … … … … … … … … … … … … … …… … … … … … … … … … … … … … …… … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … …

… … … … … … … … … … … … … … …… … … … … … … … … … … … … … …… … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … …

… … … … … … … … … … … … … … …… … … … … … … … … … … … … … …… … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … …

– I 1– I 2– I 3– …– I n

– P 1– P 2– P 3– …– P n

– R 1– R 2– R 3– …– R n

– C 1– C 2– C 3– …– C n

Innovation and

enterprise

Productivity, competitive-

ness and connectivity


Culture

Strategies

…

OBJECTIVES VALIDATED

STRATEGIES VALIDATED


and preliminary







interest/ panel)

STEP 1 STEP 2 STEP 3

Outputs

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Illustrative

Illustrative

To improve the understanding of the scope of each policy measure, policy actions associated with each strategy were developed during the validation workshops. Example for the Productivity area

EXAMPLES OF POTENTIAL POLICY ACTIONS

A Implement new policy standards/targets (e.g. acts requiring energy producers andimporters to ensure that a certain percentage of all electricity supplied to the nationalmarket comes from renewable sources by a specified date)

B Provide direct incentives for potential suppliers of energy from renewable sources(grants, long-term loans at reduced interest rates, feed-in tariffs, tax credits, accelerateddepreciation)

C Implement CO2/other environmental taxes to fossil fuels in order to make energy fromrenewable sources more competitive (objective is to reflect the environmental costsbased on CO2 content of energy sources or on electricity consumption)

D Increase use through government purchases (to supply government consumptionneeds from new generating capacity of energy from renewable sources)

DESCRIPTION OF POLICY MEASURE

1.1.1 Plan to foster thelarge scale

production of energyfrom renewable

sources

Obj: Increase the share ofenergy produced from

renewable sources/cleantechnologies

FUNDAMENTAL OBJECTIVE

1 Reach leadership in the use of renewablesources of energy and clean technologies

MEANS OBJECTIVE1.1 Increase large scale production of energy from

renewable sources

IMPACT ON CURRENT ENERGY ISSUES IN PUERTO RICO: reduce over dependency on imported oil and environmental impact of energy production

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and preliminary







interest/ panel)

STEP 1 STEP 2 STEP 3

Pre-evaluation and


STEP 4






OBJECTIVES• Ensure that no key

element has been left behind

• Understanding which policies are already been implemented

• Understand restrictions for the implementation of some strategies (regulatory, status,…)

OBJECTIVES• Broad validation of

objectives and strategies to achieve them

• Generate alignment/ common understanding within panel members regarding objectives and strategies to be evaluated in the decision conferences

OBJECTIVES• Provide an

opportunity for stakeholders of one area of interest to evaluate how strategies from other areas might impact (positively or negatively) its objectives

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Direct effects and cross-effects Vision Statements

Economic Social Infrastructure/ environment Culture

FUNDAMENTAL OBJECTIVES

… … … … … … … … … … … … … … …… … … … … … … … … … … … … … …… … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … …

Inn. & Enterp.

Comp. & Conn.

Opport. & Inc. Health Public

Safety Educ. Utilities Land & Envir. Transp. Culture

… … … … … … … … … … … … … … …… … … … … … … … … … … … … … …… … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … …

… … … … … … … … … … … … … … …… … … … … … … … … … … … … … …… … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … …

… … … … … … … … … … … … … … …… … … … … … … … … … … … … … …… … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … …

– I 1– I 2– I 3– …– I n

– P 1– P 2– P 3– …– P n

– R 1– R 2– R 3– …– R n

– C 1– C 2– C 3– …– C n

Strategies

CROSS-EFFECTS

CROSS-EFFECTS

DIRECT EFFECT

DIRECT EFFECT

DIRECT EFFECT

DIRECT EFFECT

… … … … … … … ………

Guarantee reliable access

Minimize economic cost

Minimize the social and

environmental impact

…

…

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and preliminary







interest/ panel)

Decision Conferences at the panel

level (one for each area of

interest)

STEP 1 STEP 2 STEP 3 STEP 5

Pre-evaluation and


STEP 4






OBJECTIVES• Ensure that no key

element has been left behind

• Understanding which policies are already been implemented

• Understand restrictions for the implementation of some strategies (regulatory, status,…)

OBJECTIVES• Broad validation of

objectives and strategies to achieve them

• Generate alignment/ common understanding within panel members regarding objectives and strategies to be evaluated in the decision conferences

OBJECTIVES• Provide qualitative

judgments on the level of contribution of each strategy to the objectives of each area of interest

• Provide qualitative judgments on the “doability” of each strategy

• Relative weightingof objectives within each of the panels

OBJECTIVES• Provide an

opportunity for stakeholders of one area of interest to evaluate how strategies from other areas might impact (positively or negatively) its objectives

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All strategies scored in terms of their direct contribution to the achievement of each of the fundamental objectives

Fundamental Objectives Quality Access EfficiencyInnovation

Illustrative

IllustrativeEDUCATION

Rating of the strategy against

each fundamental objective

…1

2

3

4

5

Strategy A

Strategy B

Strategy C

Strategy D

Strategy E

5

12

3

4

3

1

2

4

5

5

1

2

3

4

51

2

34

Strategies

…

The doabilitydoability of each strategy was evaluated in a similar process through a consolidated qualitative judgment that considered technical, political, institutional, financial and other issues

49

Strategies were evaluated according to their direct contribution to achieve fundamental objectives in each area and according to their perceived doability

Example of the Output Obtained in each of the 10 Decision Conferences

Strategy LStrategy K

Strategy J

Strategy I

Strategy H

Strategy G

Strategy F

Strategy E

Strategy D

Strategy C

Strategy B

Strategy A

Strategy V

Strategy U

Strategy T

Strategy S

Strategy R

Strategy Q

Strategy P

Strategy O

Strategy N

Strategy M

HighLow Consolidated Doability

High

Low

Dire

ct

Ben

efit

to

achi

eve

the

visi

on

PearlsOysters


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MACBETH evaluation conferencing

Decision Conferences at the panel level (one for

each area of interest)

STEP 5

OBJECTIVES• Provide qualitative

judgments on the level of contribution of each strategy to the objectives of each area of interest

• Provide qualitative judgments on the “doability” of each strategy

• Relative weighting of objectives within each of the panels

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LAYOUT OF THE DECISION CONFERENCE ROOM

ROOM LAYOUT

2 SCREENS

FLIP-CHART

2 COMPUTERS AND NOTE TAKER

2 PROJECTORS

GROUP SITS IN ROUND

SHAPE

PROCESS CONSULTING TEAM• 1 facilitator• 1 analyst (computer operator for M-MACBETH)Optional (depending on the context):• 1 analyst/consultant (computer operator for

background/support information)• 1 note taker

GROUP OF PARTICIPANTS• 5 to 15 people with a balanced perspective on the

meeting’s subject (experts, stakeholders, decision makers,…)

54

MACBETH was used to evaluate the strategies in terms of their contribution to achieve each fundamental objective

strategy 1

Strategies

strategy 2

strategy 3

strategy N

…

Fundamental Objectives Access Cost Impact

Illustrative

IllustrativeTRANSPORTHEALTH EDUCATION INNOVATION… …

Evaluation of the extent to which each strategy is

expected to contribute to the achievement of each objectiveassociated with

the vision

Positive contribution

Negative contribution

0E

xtre

me

(-)

Very

Stro

ng (-

)

Stro

ng (-

)

Mod

erat

e (-

)

Wea

k (-

)

Very

Wea

k (-

)

Neu

tral (

null)

Very

Stro

ng (+

)

Stro

ng (+

)

Mod

erat

e (+

)

Wea

k (+

)

Very

Wea

k (+

)

Ext

rem

e (+

)

… … … … … … … … … … … … …

63

1.1.1

1.1.2

1.1.3

1.1.4

1.1.5

1.2.2

1.3.1

1.3.2

1.4.2

1.5.1

1.5.21.5.3

1.1.6

1.2.11.2.3

1.2.4

1.4.1

1.5.4

0

100

200

0 50 100

Doability

Con

tribu

tion

to th

e vi

sion

PearlsOysters


65



launch

Strategic alternative development & prioritization

VisioningAssessment

Cross-effects were added to the outcome of the decision conferencing process and a benefit/effort ratio for each strategy was calculated at the end

RESCALEDDIRECT

BENEFIT

CROSS EFFECTS(penalty score)

POSITIVE(1/3)

NEGATIVE(2/3)

DOABILITY (EFFORT)

BENEFIT/ EFFORT

RATIO

ADJUSTED BENEFIT

Positive score: Percentage of other areas

with at least strong positive cross-effects

Evaluated in the Decision Conferences

Negative score:Percentage of other areas

with at least strong negative cross-effects

66

April 22-23

Strategic Decision

Conferences

STEP 5STEP 1 STEP 2 STEP 3

Decision Conferences at the panel level

STEP 4

Developpreliminary set of

strategies to bridge the gap

between the current situation and the future

vision

Breakdownapproved visionstatements into

specific objectives

Validation workshops –

panel of experts

2 workshops with more

than 50 stakeholders

from all 10 expert panels and from the

steering committee

Several individual interviews with

experts

10 panels with

experts

10 panels with

experts

67

The Puerto Rico 2025 project was now in the last stage of strategy development: The integration of the 10 analyses

IMPLEMENTATION LAUNCH• Transfer responsibilities to the

independent entity“The Launch”

STRATEGIC PRIORITIES• What are the strategies that will mostly

contribute to reach the vision?“The strategies”

VISION• Where does Puerto Rico want to be

in 2025?“The fundamental objectives”

EVALUATION/ASSESSMENT• Where is Puerto Rico today?

“The need for action”

October 2003 – January 2004

January – April 2004

March – June 2004

August – November 2003

68

Puerto Rico 2025Strategic Decision Conference

The primary objective was to consolidate

the results of the 10 area decision conferences

into a coherent and integrated strategic plan

69

Puerto Rico 2025Strategic Decision Conference

70

Benefit/effort ratios for each strategy in each area of concern

PACKAGE 1: Immediate Term

Integrated Strategic Packages

(implementation plan)

PACKAGE 2: Short Term

PACKAGE 3: Medium Term

PACKAGE 4: Long Term

Education

Culture

Competitivenessand Connectivity

Income andOpportunity

DIRECT BENEFIT

CROSS EFFECTS

POSITIVE

NEGATIVE

DOABILITY (EFFORT)

RATIO BENEFIT/ EFFORT

ADJUSTED BENEFIT

DIRECT BENEFIT

CROSS EFFECTS

POSITIVE

NEGATIVE

DOABILITY (EFFORT)


ADJUSTED BENEFIT

DIRECT BENEFIT

CROSS EFFECTS

POSITIVE

NEGATIVE

DOABILITY (EFFORT)


ADJUSTED BENEFIT

DIRECT BENEFIT

CROSS EFFECTS

POSITIVE

NEGATIVE

DOABILITY (EFFORT)


ADJUSTED BENEFIT

DIRECT BENEFIT

CROSS EFFECTS

POSITIVE

NEGATIVE

DOABILITY (EFFORT)


ADJUSTED BENEFIT

DIRECT BENEFIT

CROSS EFFECTS

POSITIVE

NEGATIVE

DOABILITY (EFFORT)


ADJUSTED BENEFIT

DIRECT BENEFIT

CROSS EFFECTS

POSITIVE

NEGATIVE

DOABILITY (EFFORT)


ADJUSTED BENEFIT

DIRECT BENEFIT

CROSS EFFECTS

POSITIVE

NEGATIVE

DOABILITY (EFFORT)


ADJUSTED BENEFIT

Strategic Decision

Conferences (April 22 and 24)

Group analysis across the ten

areas of concern

…

71

OUTPUT ON THE FIRST ROUND OFAREAS’ WEIGHTING

WITH MACBETH

OUTPUT ON THE SECONDWEIGHTING ROUND

72

Equity modelEquity model that supported the discussion on the packages of strategies for implementation

Equity Model : First Output

Immediate package

Short-term package Medium-term package

Four prioritization packages were created:

immediate (included those strategies to be pursued if only 10% of the total effort is to be put forth), short-term (included those strategies to be pursued if only 30% of the total effort is to be put forth), medium-term (included those strategies to be pursued if only 70% of the total effort is to be put forth) and long-term (included those strategies to be pursued if 100% of the total effort is to be put forth).

73

Adjusted-benefit / doability chartsIn order to check the strategic panel’s consistency with that of the expert panels an adjusted-benefit doability chart was shown for each area.

Long-term strategy

Medium-term strategy

Short-term strategy

Preliminary immediate strategy

PRODUCTIVITY, COMPETITIVENESS AND CONNECTIVITY

1.1.1

1.1.2

1.1.3

1.1.4

1.1.5

1.2.2

1.3.1

1.4.2

1.5.1

1.5.2 1.5.3

1.1.61.3.2

1.4.1

1.5.4

0

50

100

0 50 100Doability

Adj

uste

d B

enef

it

1.4.2Strategy that moved from the long-term to the medium-term

package

1.3.1Strategy that moved from the long-term to the short-term

package

74

Fine-tuning prioritization packages (continued)

Rearranged short-term packageRearranged medium-term package

75

Strategic Decision Conference2nd day agenda: Identify from the

short-term package the immediate strategies

Saturday, April 24th

77

Immediate package

Negotiated final immediate package

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TRANSPORT – Distribution of strategies in terms of implementation packages

Strategies

3.3.23.3.1

3.2.43.2.3

3.2.2 3.2.1

3.1.2

3.1.1

2.2.3

2.2.2

2.2.1

2.1.3

2.1.2

2.1.1

1.2.31.2.2

1.2.1

1.1.3

1.1.2

1.1.1

HighLow Doability

High

Low

Tota

l Ben

efit

Scor

e

Implementation packages (as defined at the Strategic Decision Conference)

ImmediateShort-termMedium-termLong-term

1.1.1

1.1.21.1.3

1.2.1

1.2.21.2.3

2.1.12.1.22.1.3

2.2.12.2.22.2.3

3.1.13.1.23.2.13.2.23.2.3

3.2.4

3.3.13.3.2

3.4.2

Improve the productivity and attractiveness of existing ports and airportsExpand the capacity of sea ports for cargo servicesTransform small and military sea ports into new ports for shipping servicesImprove the productivity of passenger port terminalsExpand capacity of passenger sea terminalsIncrease the number and frequency of maritime connections for passengersImprove the productivity of air cargo servicesExpand capacity of existing air cargo facilitiesTransform small and military airports into new airports for cargo servicesImprove the productivity of passenger air terminalsExpand capacity of passenger air terminalsIncrease the number and frequency of air connections for passengersImprove the productivity of land freight servicesInvest in new land freight systemsComplete the highway and road networkIncrease the efficiency/capacity of existing roadsCreate and promote efficient and reliable collective transportationEnsure that the land use plan reduces the need for transportationEncourage reduction in car usePromote clean fuels and advanced technology for transportationCreate new mechanisms to incorporate the community in transportation planning and communication process

79

Oct – Dec 2003 Jan – Mar 2004 Apr – May 2004 Aug – Nov 2003


launch

Strategic alternative development & prioritization

VisioningAssessment

• “Decision conferences”with stakeholders and experts to— Identify and develop

policy options to achieve the strategic objectives

— Prioritize economic, social and environmental strategic objectives

• Multi-criteria decision analysis to evaluate/ prioritize the strategic alternatives

• Identification of resources, funding and timing required for each initiative

• Engagement/establishment of entities responsible for managing/overseeing multi-stakeholder implementation

• Transition of responsibility to entity (or entities)

• Strategic Plan:Short-term actions (2004-08) and long-term strategies (2009-25) required to achieve desired Vision

• Implementation Plan• Full set of performance

metrics and progress-tracking mechanisms

• Implementation entityin placeEconomic

development

Infrastructure/ environment

Social development

Culture

Transport


Utilities

Culture



Competitiveness, Productivity and Connectivity

Health

Public safety

Education

facilitating group decisionmaking with the macbeth …web.ist.utl.pt/carlosbana/bin/facilitating...

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