Facilitating changes

in complex humid systems: the role of foresight

Marie de Lattre-Gasquet

CGIAR Consortium Office and Cirad

Integrated Systems Conference - 3 March 2015

Outline of the presentation

1. Why foresight can be useful to researchers working on systems.

2. Examples of foresight processes and their usefulness:

1. The futures of cocoa and rubber

2. Climate change scenarios

3. Agrimonde

4. On-going foresight exercise on futures of cropping and livestock systems

Integrated Systems Conference - 3 March 2015

Why foresight can be useful to researchers

Integrated Systems Conference - 3 March 2015

Foresight can help you to prepare to changes and to facilitate desired changes

Anticipation

Appropriation Action

AN ATTITUDE A PROCESS

Systemic approach Alerting on uncertainties. Taking care of mankind.

Past to look far away.

Collective work and intelligence to imagine

together possible futures

Acting to create the most desirable future

Integrated Systems Conference - 3 March 2015

Looking back to imagine possible futures

Integrated Systems Conference - 3 March 2015

What changed in the

past 20 to 40 years?

What is currently

changing?

What could change in the

next 20 to 40 years?

Possible futures

Desirable futures

Normative desired future

Breakthroughs

Seeds of change Uncertainties

What is the situation today?

LT tendencies

Bruntland Report

2000 2015 2050

Increasing consciouness that resources are limited

Belief that resources are unlimited.

Systemic approach

FREEDOM Many possible futures Monitor the realities Look under the radar

POWER No choice

or no more the choice?

Will

WILL

“There is no fair wind for one who knows not whither

he is bound” (Seneca)

Integrated Systems Conference - 3 March 2015

The future: something to be created

Levels of granularities of foresights vary

Geograhical

scale

Global

Ag systeme

Continent

Sub continent

Country

subb-region

Fonction Subject Megatrends Thematic

Feed, transport,, Health, energy, S&T, Demography, climate scale Land use, empower Rubber, cocoa, forest, i

rrigation…

Land use Sénégal Forest Landes Gascogne

The future of food security,

environments and livelihoods in

Eastern Africa

The future of food and farming

Agrimonde GIEC

UNEP emerging environmental issues

Now for the long term

Forêts Bassin du Congo

Perspectives agricoles

Aquatic agricultural systems ?

Global livestock pdtion systems

Filière équine française

The Protein puzzle (NL)

Time

+ 5

+ 100

Foresight methods vary and evolve

Economy

Environnement Society

Qualitative approach: vision, scenarios with narratives, etc.

Quantitative

approach

Models : BAU,

what if

Modèles, par

ex IMPACT,

GLOBIOM,

MAgPIE,

GTEM, etc.

Getting involved in a foresight process

1. Defining the question (or the site), choosing the time horizon and identifying key stakeholders

2. Constructing the system and identifying key variables

3. Gathering data and drafting hypotheses

4. Exploring possible futures, building scenarios

5. Outlining strategies 6. Continuing to monitor changes

What has to change? Who is ordering/paying for the foresight? With whom will it be done? What changes to implement? With whom can it be changed?

Integrated Systems Conference - 3 March 2015

Examples of foresight exercises and their usefulness for researchers,

for farmers, for policy-makers…

Integrated Systems Conference - 3 March 2015

Foresight exercices on cocoa and rubber in the late 1990s

• A knowledge base and key variables • Scenarios :

– Continuation of current trends – Sustainable development of the commodity chain – Production crisis

• Explicit and collective view on future of commodities • New research priorities, partnerships and networks • From a closed system to a political arena

Integrated Systems Conference - 3 March 2015

CCAFS scenarios

Integrated Systems Conference - 3 March 2015

Focused on guiding change in decision-making: • Scenarios are tools to scope regional key issues • Involvement of policy- makers • Combination of socio- economic and climate

Agrimonde

Integrated Systems Conference - 3 March 2015

Agrimonde has shown that agroecology works if global food demand decreases, but also that you cannot discuss the transformation of food production separately from a discussion on the transformation of food demand (towards sufficiency).

Livestock Cropping systems

Biotechnical and socio-économic impasses

Agronomic dynamics in scenarios

Sustainable

Intensification

Agro-ecoology

Intensification of input use and specialization

Autonomy Inputs efficiency improvement Crop – livestock associations Rotations Reducing losses Use and transformation of waste (methane) Closer to consumers Resistant varieties Natural fertilizers and pesticides ……

Production diversification

Production decline by biological, climatic or technical failure

Land losses (erosion, expropriation, expulsion division)

Capital losses

Lack of labor forces

Cropping system pathways

Sociotechnical transitions to sustainable agriculture

Collapse

14

Agrimonde-Terra: on-going work.

Source: Agrimonde-Terra

Conventional Agricultural

Intensification

Modes of production and locations of production can change

Local CS Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5

Rice based cropping

system: Vietnam

Rice (twice a year) or

Rice (summer) - Maize

(winter)

Rice twice a year on

all areas (using AWD

alternate wet and

dry): watersaving

which needs a great

farmers coordination

Rice twice a year (no

water savings used

due to lack of

coordination) trend

scenario

Rice only in summer

(plenty of water);

Diversified dry crops

during winter

(maize, beans,

vegetables) =

watersaving

Rice based cropping

system: Mali

Single cropping

Rice/Rice 65 % Double

cropping Rice/Rice 15

% DbCrp Rice/Market

Gardening 10 %

Sugar Cane 10 %

Same system, water

being shared

between users.

Water use in dry

season for rice:

double rice sequence

No more double rice

cropping sequence,

water (in dry

season)used for

agro-industrial crops

(Sugar Cane /

Jatropha) Priority to

investors

New production

systems involving

Cattle breeding for

African market with

irrigated forage

crops, industrial

crops and double

rice cropping for

family farmers Water

use in dry season for

forages

Rice based cropping

system: Thailand

Rainfed paddy rice in

wet season,

supplement irrigation

in dry season

Massive shift to

higher yielding,

lower quality rice

(due to price support

policy)

Massive

development of dry

season irrigation

Massive gradual

withdrawal of aging

farmers

Integrated Systems Conference - 3 March 2015

Futures of Landes de Gascogne

Integrated Systems Conference - 3 March 2015

Scenarios Opportunities and let it go

Attractivity and qualitiy

Large self-sufficient region

Mosaic and diversity

A better understanding of the different roles of the forest and the interests of different actors and their relationships A consensus on the future of the region

To identify and facilitate changes

in complex systems

Anticipation Appropriation Action

• Concentrating on the long-term • Revealing uncertainties • Imagining several possible

futures help to build theory of change

• Anticipating development outcomes

• Communication between varied stakeholders

• Empowering smallholders

• Building consensus on a shared vision

• New research priorities and funding

• New policies • Risk management

Foresight is an attitude and a process

What are your needs?

Level Context Other topics

Direction of CRP

Geographical flagship with different sites

Cluster of activities

Integrated Systems Conference - 3 March 2015

Several ways of helping you: • Analyzing information on results of foresight exercices What’s new in thinking about the futures of AR4D? • Providing information when asked • Network – Forward Thinking Platform • Facilitating foresight exercises

Thank you for

your attention