f1 forecasting solutions - bruikbare oplossingen? … · microsoft powerpoint - f1...
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Forecasting Solution
© Copyright 2005 Advantica, Inc. (USA Only) and Advantica Ltd. (Outside USA). All rights reserved by the respective owner.14903/CW 17.02 2005
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Forecasting Problem
• Applies to • Shippers• Transporters• Local Distribution
Companies• Traders
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Shippers
• Need to reduce imbalance charges• By improving short term forecasts
• Want to minimise gas costs • Buying more of portfolio gas
cheaper (if possible) in advance• Want to order sufficient capacity
• And not to have unwanted excess
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Transporters
• Need to ensure security of supply• Avoid regulatory penalties and massive
social/economic impact• Need to run network efficiently
• Forecasts can drive predictive simulation processes (e.g. SPS) to optimise compressor usage, linepack
• Reduce CAPEX• Use longer term demand forecasts to
identify where capacity constraintsare going to be and drive network planning tools (e.g. SynerGee)
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Traders and LDC’s
• Traders need to forecast gas demand• To reduce cost of options to mitigate risk• To help make buying/selling decisions
in times of price volatility• Local Distribution Companies need to
forecast gas demand• To balance supply/demand• To avoid transporter/regulator penalties• To manage usage of supply contracts
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Forecasting Solution
What’s Involved in Forecasting?
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Forecaster Models
These are the main, configurable forecasting model types used by Advantica, simple out = in type models and Bayesian methods are also available
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Forecasting Lifecycle
Requirements
Initial Study• Data Quality• Sample Analysis
Full Analysisand Modelling• Data Quality• Classification• Modelling• Review
BusinessCase
Implementation• System Architecture• Database Config• Model implementation• Data I/O• Data Migration• Training• Testing
ContinuousImprovement• Ongoing support• Adapting to changing
market conditions
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Benefits
• Ultimately, improved forecast accuracy• PLUS…• Automation of mundane,
time-consuming tasks• Consolidation of data into one
data warehouse• Consistent forecast approach• Flexibility of solution reduces
ongoing costs
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Cost Benefits
Typical Operational Costs
Before ImprovedForecasts
OPE
X
ImbalancePenalties
CommodityCharge
CapacityCharge
1 - Improve long term forecasts to optimise capacity booking
2 - Improve medium/short term forecasts tobuy more gas in advance cheaply
3 - Improve short termforecasts to reduce imbalance charges
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Advantica Solutions
• Small modelling study to demonstrate benefits of improved forecasting performance
• Detailed studies to look at all aspectsof forecasting process
• Trial implementations of Forecaster• Forecaster Lite – limited version of Forecaster• Forecaster turnkey solutions