F IL E C OP X -.-s , iReport No. 507-EC

Current Economic Positionand Prospects- '_ tL.A. & t. F1ESof Ecuador uAugust 26, 1974

Latin America and the Caribbean Regional Office

Not for Public Use

Document of the International Bank for Reconstruction and DevelopmentInternational Development Association

This report was prepared for official use only by the Bank Group. It may not

be published, quoted or cited without Bank Group authorization. The Bank Group does

not accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the report.

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CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

Currency Unit = Sucre (SI.)S/. 1.00 = US$O.0oUS$1.00 = s/. 25.ooS/. 1 million = US$ho,000

GOVERTNENT OF ECUADORFISCAL YEAR

January 1 to Dec ember 31

This report is based on the findingsof an economic mission which visitedEcuador in September-October 1973 andsubsequent staff visits and discussionswith the Government authorities. Themission was composed of Messrs. Jos6 A.Guerra (Chief of Mission), EugeneMcCarthy (Loan Officer), Alirio Parra(Petroleum Specialist-Consultant),and Gerhard Thiebach (Economist). Themain aspects reflect the situation asof April 197h.

CURRENT ECONOMIC POSITION AND PROSPECTS OF ECUADOR

TABLE OF COYTENTS

Page No.

COUNTRY DATA

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSEONS ..................... i-iv

I. INTRODUCTION *..*..... ..... . 1

II. RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS.................... 2

III. PETROLEUM DEVELOPMENTS .............. 5

IV. THE PUBLIC INVESTMENT PROGRAM ................... 10

A. The National Development Plan, 1972-77 ... 10B. The 1973-74 Program Budget .... 12

V. DEVEIWOPNENT ISSUES AND POLICIES ................. 17

A. The Basic Problem 17B. Government Strategy and Policies .19

The Problem of Inflation . .19Fiscal Policy. . . 21Trade and Price Policies -..-.. 3Income Policies. . 24

VI. GROWTH PROSPECTS.. .26

A. The Short-Term ....... *.. . . .... ..... 26B. Public Finances .27C. The Balance of Payments .................. 28

The Medium-Ternm ............ 28

MAP

STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Page 1 of 2 pages

DOUN'TRY DATA - ECUADOR

AREA POPULATION DENSITY

2(1.{.CQ km-l 6.7 million (mid-1973) 22+ per /

Rate of Growth: 3.,% (from 1960 1d 1-/73) 200 per km- of arable land

POPULATION CILARACTERISTICS (197HEALTH (1970

Crude Birth Rate (per LOUO) 0 Population per physician 2,930

Crude Death Rate (per 1,000 ) : Population per hospital bed 520

Infant Mlortality (per i,'Od live births) 9-7

2i/ 2/INCOME DISTRIBUTION (1Q70) DISTRIBUTION OF LAND OWNERSHIP (-1968)

7. of national income, lowest quintile % % owned by top 10% of owners 65

highest quintile 7'2>' % owned by smallest 2?%of owners 1

ACCESS TO PIPED WATER (196)) ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY (1962/

'7, of population - urban ?2 of dwellings 32

- rural c

2/ L

NUJTRITION (1971- EDUCATION (1970)

Calorie intake as % of requirements 79 Adult literacy rate % 68

Per capita protein intake 49 Primary school enrollment % 78 /

-/GNP PER CAPITA in 1972 US $ 321

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 ANNUAL RATE OF GROWTH (¾, constant prices)

US $ Mln. % 1961-66 1967-72 1972-73

GNP at Market Prices 2,034 100.0 4.24 5.8 12.0

Gross Domestic Investment 436 21.4 14.8

Gross National Saving 193 9.4Current Account Balance -136 -6.6 -40.6

Exports of Goods, NFS 354 17.4 52.8

Imports of Goods, NFS 275 23.3 22.7

OUTPUT, LABOR FORCE AlOPRODUCTIVITY IN 197'

2/Value Added Labor Force- V. A. Per Worker

IS-$ Mln. % Mln. US $ %

Agriculture J 432 28.5 1.1 55.0 393 14.2

Industry 27 l+o5 26.7 0.4 20.0 1,012 36.7

Services 1/ 679 22.5 0.5 25.0 1,356 49.1

UnallocatedTotal/Average 1,515 ICOSO 2.0 100.0 2,761 lOO.0

GOVERNMENT FINANCE 6/2.snts•al Gokernment Central Government

% of GDP ( S/. Mln.) % of GDP

Xf) 1573 1965-72 1973 1973 l-7 2

Current Receipts Ž6,199 25.0 16.2 7,537 11.3 10.2

Current Expenditure 10,199 15.7 12.0 7,062 10.9 10,

Current Surplus ',C' 9.2 2.2 255 0.009

Capital Expenditures 7.7 5.6External Assistance (net) I,5'.5 2.2 2.0 1,575 0.024 0.015

not availablenot applicable

Page 2 of 2 pages

COUINTRY DATA - ECUADOR

MONEY, CREDIT and PRICES 1965 1969 1970 1971 1972(Million sucres outstanding end period)

Money and Quasi Money 5,446 9,660 11,539 12,619 15,298

Bank Credit to Public Sector 541 1,365 1,810 2,583 1,635Bank Credit to Private Sector 4,106 6,388 7,527 8,321 9,307

(Percentage increase)

Money and Quasi Money as % of GDPGeneral Price Index (1963 = 100)Annual percentage changes in:

General Price Index ] 7.1 29.5 38.7 1.0 66.8Bank credit to Public Sector , 240.0 32. 427 -3 .

Bank credit to Private Sector . 55.5 17.8 10.5 23.1

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (AVERAGE 1965-72)

1969 1970 1972 US $ Mln %

(Millions US $) Bananas 110 50Coffee 38 17

Exports of Goods, NFS 220 256 355 Cocoa 24 11

Imports of Goods, NFS 330 361 475 Sugar 10 5

Resource Gap (deficit = -) -uI -r5s -I7

Interest Payments (net) - 8 - 10 - 10 All other commodities 38 17

Workers' Remittances .* Total 100

Other Factor Payments (net) - 20 - 25 - 20Net Transfers 12 14 16 EXTERNAL DEBT, DECEMBER 31. 1972

Balance on Current Account -126 25 T34US $ Mln

Direct Foreign Investment 75 90 157Net MLT Borrowing 16 31 79 Public Debt, inl. guaranteed 403,339

Disbursements 30 47 106 Non-Guaranteed Private Debt

Amortization 14 16 27 Total outstanding & Disbursed 403,339

Subtotal 91 121 236 1/

Capital Grants] - 4 DEBT SERVICE RATIO for 1972

Other Capital (net) - - %

Other items n.e.i J0 -.Increase in Reserves (+) 5 2 102 Public Debt, incl. guaranteed 10.5

Non-Guaranteed Private Debt

Gross Reserves (end year) 65 83 180 Total outstanding & Disbursed

Net Reserves (end year) 58 56 27

RATE OF EXCHANGE IBRD/IDA LENDING, (May.1974) (Million US $)

Through - 1971 IBRD IDA

US $ 1.00 = S/. 251.00 = US $0.04 Outstanding & Disbursed 37.1 18.6

Undisbursed 23.4 20.4

Since - 1971 Outstanding inl. Undisbursed 39.0

US $ 1.00 SI. 251.00 = US $ 0.04

/ The Per Capita GNP estimate is at 1970 market prices, calculated by the same conversion technique as the 1972

World Atlas. All other conversions to dollars in this table are at the average exchange rate prevailing during

the period covered.Total labor force; unemployed are allocated to sector of their normal occupation. "Unallocated" consists mainly

of unemployed workers seeking their first job./ Contains agriculture, livestock, forestry, fishing and hunting.4/ Includes manufacturing, mining, public utilities and construction.

Includes trade, transportation and public and private services.I Excludes Social Security Institute.7/ GDP deflator.

SDR's allocation.

v Ratio of debt service to exports of goods and non-factor services.Sources: ajNational Planning and Coordination Board, Ecuador; J/PAHO-Health Conditions in the Americas 1966-68,

September 1970; j Ecuador: Encuesta Agropecuaria Nacional, 1968; j UN Statistical Yearbook, 1971;3/011, Demographic Yearbook, 1970 and FAO, Production Yearbook, 1970; f,ANESCO, Statistical Yearbook, 1970;

p/fC, Statistical Bulletin for Latin America, 1970

Latin America and the Caribbean Regional OfficeAugust 6, 1974

CURRENT ECONO1M1IC POSITION AND PROSPECTS OF ECUADOR

SUMKARY AND CONCLU¶ONS

i. Ecuador's current economic position and its prospects overthe next few years are quite favorable. The development of petroleumproduction and exports over the whole year in 1973 brought about adramatic change in the country's internal and external financialposition and accelerated the rate of economic growth. Ecuador's growthpotential is now greater and more firmly established than it seemed tobe in 1971, when the early development of petroleum became certain.

ii. With the sharp increase of petroleum exports in 1973 overthe preceding year--from $61 million to $270 million-- and higherprices for most traditional exports, total merchandise exports expandedby 83 percent and though, freed from restrictions, imports increasedby about 35 percent and net factor payments also increased sharply--mainly from the petroleum sector, there was a substantial gain ofreserves. Equally dramatic has been last yearts change in publicfinances, public sector revenues increasing by about 60 percent over1972. As current expenditures increased only moderately--12 percent--it was possible to finance a doubling of investment expenditures andat the same time to completely cancel the public sector indebtedness withthe banking system, which has stood at S/.1.6 million at the end of1972. Both the balance of payments and public finances will furtherimprove and at a faster pace in 1974-78, the mission's projections indi-cating the likely accumaulation of both public sector surpluses and inter-national reserves, despite a projected 11 percent annual GDP growth inreal terms and a high rate of increase of imports and income payments.

iii. It is thus clear that petroleum development has removed forEcuador the scarcity of savings which had been until now a severeconstraint on growth. The basic issue now is to what extent thecountry shall prove able of utilizing its largely increased financialresources to strengthen its economic structure. Only by expanding,diversifying and raising the productivity of the non-petroleum productivesectors, can Ecuador create the necessary opportunities for employmentof its fast-growing labor force and raise the incomes and livingstandards of the broad masses of the population. Failure to achievethese objectives would weaken rather than strengthen the economy'sstructure by making it dependent on petroleum exploitation and accentu-ating the present marked economic and social disparities between themodern and traditional sectors of the society. Such an unfortunateprocess would leave the broad masses of the population untouched bypetroleum development and perpetuate existing widespread poverty.

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lv. GThe Government is quite aware of the opportunity o'feredand the challenge posed by the country's neuly-found wealth and of thecrucial necessity of adopting policies and taking actions des-gned toersure that the large financial resources now available make an adEquatecontribution to the country's economic and social developmena needs.The main thrusts of a development-oriented strategy in the presentcircumstances flow quite clearly from the existing economic and so 'ia.structure and conditions. 'In ere is an obvious urgert need o-:(a) expanding and improving the physical infrastructure reqc.1red formaking fuller and more efficient use of the country'S resources byextending transportation, energy and other basic facilities into newpotentially productive areas and improving such facilities as now exist,(b) expanding and improving the provision of services and technicalinputs needed for raising productivit-y and efficiency in agriculture,industry and supporting services; (c) stimulating the private sectDrto increase output and investment through appropriate trade and pricepolicies and the transferring tc it a proportion of the public sectorample financial resources and; (d) expanding and improving the provisionof education, training, health and other social services to upgrade -Jhequality and raise the living standards of the labor force and thepopulation generally.

v. These basic guidelines of development strategy -n the presentcircumstances of Ecuador are largely reflected in the development planadopted by the Government in 1972 and in several actions taken andpolicies adopted. -Ihe Planning Board has been considerably strengthened,particularly in the last few months, with personnel and financial re-sources and by upgrading its status in the Govermment. Ser- Olls effortsare being made to increase the public sector's absorptive caoacity forinvestment by strengthening and acceleratuing, t,he pocess of pr ectpreparation in the Planning Board and public -agencieso including a-tinventory of projects and she creatmion of a Pre-invet ren`C Fund forfinancing pre-feasibilitY and feasibility studies hrough finalengineering design, explicitly empowered to con-ract --ational andforeign consultants.

va_. Complemen ting these efforts at prcject preparatio-c and inrder to ensure the availability of funds for investment and dampes

t~he inflationary effects of the large amounts of resources accruingfrom che present high petroleum prices, the Government hJas segregatedfrom the budget the additional revenues accruing to the CentralGovernment from the increase of the petroleum reference price abovethe $7.30 per barrel in effect cn November 10, 1973, to the presentreference price of $13.70 per barrel. Though this measure excludedthe revenues from royalties, these aadi.ional furds would amount tosome $175 million in 1974I. These resources, accumulated in theNational Development Fund, will finance investment projects, as theybecome ready, over and above those already included i n the 1974 budget.

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vii. Pari passu with the measures designed to increase publicsector investment in physical infrastructure, the authorities have alsoadopted several measures designed to stimulate the expansion of outputin agriculture and industry to meet the fast growing demand and arrestthe rapid growth of imports. The large increase of imports in 1973resulting from the removal of all restructions, helped to meet therapid expansion of demand--which could not possibly be met by animmediate response of domestic production--and contributed to dampenthe growing inflationary pressures. However, aware of the need toreconcile the control of inflation with the country's developmentneeds, the Government complemented the.freeing of imports with revisionsof the import tariff, lowering or completely eliminating tariff dutieson inputs utilized for domestic production and a wide range of capitalgoods. With regards to agriculture, where the immediate expansion ofoutput faces the greatest difficulties, the Government has also adoptedseveral other significant measures. By far the most important of theseis the increase of both price ceilings and support prices for rice,meat, milk, sugar, wheat and oil seeds, adopted only last March.Earlier, the Government had provided a substantial amount of funds toincrease the credit resources for agriculture and eliminated tariffduties on inputs utilized for agricultural production and the 4 percenttax on business transactions related to agriculture.

viii. From the balance of payments and fiscal projections it seemsevident that during 1974-78, short of a dramatic drop in petroleumprices, Ecuador's growth possibilities are not likely to suffer fromsavings or foreign exchange constraints and that an annual GDP growthrate ofll percent over the next five years is quite feasible. But,in the last analysis, higher growth rates will depend essentially onthe country's ability to utilize in productive investment an adequateproportion of its large financial resources. As such resources accruealmost entirely to the Central Government and other public agencies,Ecuador's growth prospects almost wholly depend on the ways theGovernment and public agencies use their financial resources.

ix. Under these circumstances, the first basic objective of adevelopment-oriented strategy would be, therefore, to utilize theresources accruing from petroleum for strengthening and expanding thenon-petroleum sectors of the economy so as to develop their potential,make fuller use of the country's natural and human resources andreduce the degree of newly-created dependence from petroleum. Thiscalls for the most vigorous efforts in rapidly expanding publicservices required for increasing agricultural and industrial outputand productivity. Given the present limited capacity for rapidly ex-panding public investment, the time-lag involved in building majorinfrastructure works and the fact that the petroleum resources accrue

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to the State while the private sector's own resources remain morelimited, an essential feature of Government policy should be to providethe private sector adequate amounts of commercial bank credit tofinance the expansion of production and long-term credit facilitiesfor investment--through the National Development Corporation, COFIECand other financial intermediaries--out of the large public savingsaccumulating.

x. Given the uncertainties surrounding the continuing expansionof petroleum exports beyond 1977 and the difficulties for rapidlyexpanding domestic output, particularly in agriculture, it may beconcluded that Ecuadorts overall growth prospects beyond the nextfive-six years are not clear. If the annual rate of economic growthof about 11 percent that seems attainable over the next five-six yearsdoes not prove sustainable over a longer period, by the end of thepresent decade Ecuador, though having substantially raised its percapita income over the 1971 level, would still be a poor country, witha per capita income of about $500. Though continuing increase ofpetroleum exports beyond 1978 would be the key factor of further overalleconomic growth, much will depend also on the success of the Governmentin rapidly expanding the investment capacity of the public sector andin pursuing policies conducive to the rapid expansion of domesticoutput, particularly of agricultural products and to the strengtheringof the non-petroleum producing sectors of the econozy. The measuresrecently adopted evidence the authorities' awareness of the nature ofthe problems they face and of the policies required. They also showa determination to manage the economy in such a way as to ensure theutilization of Ecuador's newly-found wealth for building the basisfor the country's sustained growth and for spreading its benefits tothe broad masses of the population. Ecuador deserves full supportof the international agencies and governments in carrying out suchefforts to success.

I. INTRODUCTION

1. The economic situation and prospects of Ecuador have changedsignificantly during the last two years. Our last report on the "CurrentEconomic Position and Prospects of Ecuador " (1ha-EC), which covered theperiod ended in December 1971, concluded that, owing mainly to the ex-politation of petroleum, the economy's prospects over the medium termwere quite favorable, as "the effects of petroleum activity will be of suchmagnitude that the economy should not suffer from a savings constraint,prov_ded that both the private and the public sector do not permit theirconsumption to exceed reasonable and adequate limits." At present, thisconclusion can be even more strongly stated than it was at the time.Though our mission's findings do not indicate major volume changes in theprospects of non-petroleum exports and only a moderate upward adjustmentin petroleum export volumes relative to cur estimates of two years ago,petroleum prices have jumped up sharply, radically altering the effects ofpetroleum production and exports on net foreign exchange earnings andgovernment revenues over the next few years. Ecuador's growth potentialis now greater and even more fi-rmly established than it seemed to be in1971. But while the larger resources arising from petroleum activityfurther remove the savings constraint, the need to rapidly expand thecountry's absorptive capacity for productive investment becomes moreimperative. The huge and sudden increase in foreign exchange earningshas also given rise to strong inflationary pressures which are pushingprices up, despite the fact that imports--now canpletely freed---areincreasing at a very fast rate. This creates for the Ecuadorian authoritiesan immediate short-term problem of economic management, the handling ofwhich will affect the country's sustained growth and development prospects.They are confronted with the dual task of utilizing the petroleum resourcesto strengthen and expand the non-petroleum sectors of the economy to developtheir full potential, and of controlling the mounting inflation throughpolicies that do not stifle that growth.

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II. RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

2. The year 1972 marks a turning point in Ecuador's economicsituation and prospects, brought about by the emergence of petroleum as amajor economic activity. The relatively high rate of economic growth of1971, officially estimated at 7.9 percent of GDP in real terms, was ex-ceeded in 1972, reaching 9.7 percent according to the official estimates.The main factor in this expansion was the 33 percent increase of exports.This reflected to a large extent the start of petroleum exports, whichaccounted for three-fourths of the increase. But other export values,particularly coffee and sugar among the traditional, expanded also. Inthe case of coffee, the higher export value reflected both larger volumeand better unit prices; while in the case of sugar, the increase was dueto larger volume,unit prices being lower than in the preceding year(Table 3.2, Statistical Appendix). A most satisfactory development alsowas the performance of miscellaneous exports, which increased by 24percent in value, thus continuing--though at a slower pace--the rapidexpansion started in 1971. These miscellaneous exports consist of a widevariety of manufactured and semi-processed products of domestic rawmaterials.

3. The doubling of miscellaneous exports in 1972 over 1970, and afurther 26 percent increase in 1973 (see paragraph 8 below)--which raisedtheir share of total non-petroleum exports from 11 percent in 1970 to29 percent in 1973--is a tribute to the drive and initiative of Ecuador'ssmall entrepreneurs. The quantitative significance of these exports inthe total export picture is admittedly small and will, of course, bedwarfed with the rise in petroleum exports. However, under the conditionsprevailing in Ecuador, particularly in agriculture, the expansion of thesemninor exports is of some importance. The production of some of them, asis the case of seafood and oil seeds, is highly labor-intensive; in othercases, as in cocoa and banana products, their processing increases valueadded, creates additional employment opportunities and contributes to themodernization of agricultural activities by their technological require-ments. In some other instances--pyrethrum and wood and wood products--these exports utilize land and forest resources that otherwise wouldremain unproductive.

4. The export expansion was not supported by the continuation in1972 of the increase of investment in the petroleum sector. Petroleuminvestment dropped by 19 percent in nominal terms from the level reachedin 1971. This reduction was only slightly offset by a 15 percent increaseof investment in non-petroleum activities, notably construction, housingand manufacturing. As a result, total investment, both private and public,increased only by about 4 percent in current prices and thus registered adrop in real terms. The growth of the real product was reflected in a 7.5percent expansion of consumption and a substantial accumulation of foreignexchange resources (Table 3.1, Statistical Appendix).

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5. The outcome just mentioned reflects in part Ecuador's limlitedinvestment capacity and the policies followed in 1972. But in part itreflects also the radically different 6conomic situation which prevailedduring the first and second half of the year. During the first half, theeconomy labored under a severe foreign exchange constraint. Internationalreserves at the end of 1971 had dropped to only $24 million, a low notregistered since the early 196 0's. Tax revenues were increasing very slowly-- at an annual rate of only 3 percent--and the Government's capacity toborrow domestically was limited by the extremely low level of reserves andthe large deficit incurred in 1971, which had been financed by borrowingfrom the banking system. Total Central Government expenditures in 1972thus increased only by about 8 percent in the first semester, barely keepingpace with the rate of inflation, and the Government resorted to short-termborrowing abroad, obtaining a $40 million, one-year loan from a U.S. bank.However, prospects of increased government spending and the imminent startof petroleum exports maintained the growth of output.

6. During the second half of the year the situation changed drastically.Petroleum exports began in August, reaching a value of $61 million, resultingin a 33 percent expansion of exports for the year; petroleum accounting for76 percent of that increase. The start of petroleum exports, besides easingthe foreign exchange situation, added S/. 340 million to Central Governmentrevenues. These favorable developments took place rather late in the year,and thus the expansion of exports and government revenues in the last quarterresulted in a substantial increase of the international reserves and made itpossible for the Government to reduce substantially both its net indebtednessto the Central Bank and its overall fiscal deficit (Tables 3.1 and 6.1,Statistical Appendix).

7. Apart from petroleum production, the growth of output in 1972reflected mainly the continuing expansion of manufacturing, housing,construction and transportation; in the latter two sectors largely as aresult of works associated with petroleum production and export. Agricul-tural output--particularly for domestic consumption--continued laggingbehind overall growtb, with an estimated increase of less than 2 percent.This reflected in part the long-standing structural deficiencies of thesector, but also adverse climatic conditions. As will be discussed laterin this report, the performance of agriculture--particularly for domesticconsumption--poses a most serious and difficult problem for the success ofEcuador's development efforts.

8. As noted earlier, 1972 marked a turning point in the economicposition of Ecuador. The upturn initiated in the second half of that yearcontinued at a faster pace in 1973. GDP growth is estimated to have ex-ceeded the handsome 9.7 percent in real terms achieved the year before,reaching about 13.0 percent. As in 1972, the basic factor of economicgrowth was the expansion of exports, which in value terms increased from

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about $323 million in 1972 to about $516 million last year, or by some60 percent. The main push to export growth came, of course, from petroleum.Oil shipments in 1973 reached about 71.1 million barrels, compared to some25 million the year before. At an estimated average price for the year of$3.988 per barrel oil exports were about $284 million, i.e., over four andone-half times the 1972 figure. After deducting some $30 million of profitremittances, the country's net foreign exchange earnings from these exportsin 1973 are estimated at about $254 million. Petroleum has thus becomeEcuador's largest export, far exceeding bananas as the main source of foreignexchange. Last year's growth of exports was not limited to petroleum, thoughit accounted for over four-fifths of the total increase. Nor-petroleumexports expanded by over 16 percent, reflecting 5 percent larger vclume andhigher unit prices for bananas and coffee. Miscellaneous minor exports in-creased again by 26.6 percent. As in 1972, fixed capital formation againdeclined, but even more markedly, reflecting the large drop of investment inthe petroleum sector. Though investment in manufacturing, construction andhousing continued at a good pace, it was not sufficient to offset the reduc-ticn in petroleum investment, which dropped from $127 million in 1572 to anestimated $67 million in nominal terms in 1973 as the main works of theTexaco/Gulf consortium were completed.

9. The export of petroleum during the whole year and their very largeincrease both in volume and prices relative to 1972, coupled with the ex-pansion of non-petroleum exports, brought about a dramatic change in Ecauadortsbalance of payments and external financial position. With the prospects ofpetroleum exports in large amounts and the generally favorable external marketconditions for Ecuador's export commodities in 1973, the authorities removedin April all restrictions on Imports, though maintaining the licensing systemfor purposes of control and as an instrument of an eventually selective im-port policy. Though imports are estimated to have increased by about 35percent over the preceding year's relatively high level, the resource im-balance of $121 was reduced. Net factor payments are estimated at $50million compared to $31 million in 1972,1/but the current account deficitwas reduced from $136 million to $55 million. Private long-term capitalinflows also declined in 1973, mainly because of lower petroleum investment.H-otever, total long-term capital inflows were large enough to offse-; thedeficit on current account and resulted in about $97 million gain of reservesat year's end (Table 3.6, Statistical Appendix).

10. The stronger impact of petroleum activity was also felt during 1973in -he field of public finances. Proceeds from petroleum boosted the CentralG-overnment revenues on an anprecedented scale, to S/. 7.5 billion, an increaseof 44 percent over the previous year. Central Government expenditures reachedS/. 7.1 billion. On a cash basis the Central Government thus obtained asurplus of some S/. 55 million, wthich compares with a deficit of S/. 530million in 1972 and of S/. 955 million in 1971 (Table 5.1, Statistical Appendix).

l/ Oil remittances amounted to $18 million in 1972 and about $30 million in 1973.

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III. PETROLEUM DEVELOPMENTS

11. In August 1972, Ecuador became a net exporter of crude petroleum.Since then a number of outstanding issues have been resolved on the domesticpetroleum scene. In particular, these refer to the successful renegotiationof contracts with foreign oil companies. Concurrently, continuous upwardadjustments have been recorded in the price of crude petroleum exports.Taken together these developments are favorable to Ecuador in terms ofpetroleum investment, government revenue and foreign exchange earnings.

12. New contracts have been concluded with a number of companiesalready holding acreage in Eastern Ecuador. As a result, the conditionsunder which these companies operate have been brought into line with the1971 hydrocarbons law and with subsequent legislation. This means that aset of basic uniform regulations will be applied henceforth to all companiesoperating in the country. In summary, the contracts reduce the maximumpermissible acreage, increase minimum work obligations, grant the nationaloil company the right to acquire a 25 percent participation and give theGovernment access up to 51 percent of the oil under certain conditions.In spite of the generally stiffer terms, the new contracts have institution-alized a de facto and potentially conflictive situation and have placedrelations between the Government and the industry on a more workable basis.In this connection, many of the uncertainties facing the private operatorsin the country have been reduced, thus paving the way to more definiteexploration and development programs. This notwithstanding, it remains to beseen whether the regulations now in force will attract new companies todevelop "high" risk areas.

13. As of October 1, 1973, the area under contract in the OrienteProvince amounted to 1.53 million hectares of which about half a millionhectares fell within the Texaco/Gulf contract area. With the returningof acreage by some contractors and the departure from Ecuador of others,about 5 million hectares of potential petroleum areas have reverted to theState. This acreage will now have to be developed by the national oilcompany (CEPE) either directly or indirectly through service or associationcontracts.

1l. During the past several months exploration in Ecuador has beenpractically at a standstill. At present, there are no seismic partiesoperating in Oriente. Up to thirteen exploratory wells were drilledduring 1972, but merely four have been completed to date this year. Inpart, this situation reflects the period of inactivity in the oil industrywhile negotiations were in progress between the industry and the Government.Now that the negotiations have been completed it is hoped that more emphasiswill be placed on exploratory drilling. While extensive geological andgeophysical surveys have been undertaken in Eastern Ecuador, only 50exploratory wells have been completed in the Oriente Basin since 1961. In

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Venezuela, where exploration has lagged recently, over sixty exploratory

wells are completed every year, while in Mexico exploratory tests amounted

to 143 in 1972. The conclusions that can be drawn from the present state

of exploratory activity in Ecuador are inescapable: only a very small part

of a very large sedimentary basin--over eight million hectares--has been

tested as yet by the drill.

15. Crude reserve figures have been revised upward recently. The

Texaco/Gulf consortium now estimates crude reserves within their contract

area at approxdmately 1.5 billion barrels as compared to 0.8 billion barrels

as of December 31, 1971. A number of unofficial estimates of proved and

probable reserves in Ecuador have recently been published. These place the

figure at 5.7 billion barrels.!/ The exact volumne of proved reserves is a

matter of dispute, but almost certainly these will grow as the known reser-

voirs are further delineated and a better understanding of the recovery

mechanism is achieved. Hydrocarbons in place in a given reservois are

fixed quantities, but the amount recoverable depends on numerous variables

including reservoir characteristics, technology and market conditions.

However, it seems reasonable to estimate that a production level of around

400,000 barrels daily could be achieved and sustained in the Texaco/Gulf

fields through the 1970's. With the exception of the Texaco/Gulf area, only

limited quantities of potentially recoverable oil have been found so far,

notably by Cayman and Anglo. In addition, within the areas which have re-

verted to CEPE there are two or three promising fields, including Bermejo

and Tivacuno.

16. Perhaps the most important point that can be made with respect

to the present reserves position in Ecuador is that most of the oil that

will be produced during the next ten years has already been found. In

order to widen the physical hydrocarbon resource base of the country and

ensure the continuing expansion of exports beyond the earlier years of the

next decade, it is essential to step up the exploration program and to

prove additional reserves over the 1,8 billion barrels at present estimated.

This is particularly important in view of the long lead times between the

discoveries and the preparation of the fields for production. An early

identification of additional proved reserves is also important to justify

the building of an additional pipeline so as to prevent that transport

capacity becomes a bottleneck after 1977 if the full capacity of the ex-

isting pipeline were reached by that year. In order to ensure that ex-

ternal funds are made available for exploration on a continuing basis,

explicit recognition should be given to the fact that the cost of finding

and producing oil as well as its quality may vary significantly from one

area to another within the country. The very high ad-valoreum taxes on

production (royalty in kind plus export taxes)which are an integral part

j For further details see U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 817,

1973 and the Oil & Gas Journal, December 25, 1972.

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of the Ecuadorian fiscal system, allow very little flexibility withrespect to changes in production costs and in essence act to deter thedevelopment of higher cost areas. The tax system as it affects the oilindustry is under review with the object of making the tax structuremore responsive to changes in the cost of production. Presumnably thiswould involve the elimination of the export tax and an increase in incometax rates.

17. Production in Oriente Province has averaged 196,000 barrelsdaily in 1973. Texaco/Gulf brought its three producing fields up to acapacity of 250,000 barrels daily by the end of 1973. The companies areproceding to connect other fields such as Auca to their pipeline system.In order to maintain production, the companies estimate they must employup to three rigs while to raise capacity to 400,000 barrels daily, apeak drilling program employing five to six rigs is foreseen. With theacquisition of the Gulf producing properties ir. Colombia, including anequity participation in the Orito-Tumaco line, Cayman is well placed toprovide transport alternatives for possible crude discoveries. Suchalternatives, however, require the approval of the Ecuadorian Government.The best estimate of Cayman discoveries points to an ultimate productivecapacity in the order of 50,0O0 barrels daily.

18. The level of production in Ecuador in the next four years willdepend on the timing of investment programs in wells and field facilities,on the evaluation and delineation of reservoirs already discovered, theavailability of transport facilities, and government policies. On May 24,1974 the Government limited production to 210.000 barrels a day, a reduc-tion of 14 percent of the daily output already reached. The reason givenfor the decision is to conserve the resource pending a clearer picture ofreserces availability. Given the present high prices and the largefinancial resources already accruing to the country, clearly there is nopressing need to push production to the highest permissible level. Ecuador'ssupply is so marginal in the world petroleum picture, that the small reduc-tion of its output will not affect the overall supply situation, while itwould appreciably extend the utilization of existing proven reserves. TheGovernment's decision will also contribute to reduce the waste of resourcesin nonproductive uses and ease inflationary pressures. In any case, theGovernment has the option of increasing production again when and if internalor external developments so warrant it. If in the future the Governmentpolicy were to expand production to substantial higher levels, productioncapability could well be constrained by lack of pipeline capacity. In thisrespect, Texaco/Gulf are committed to increase the capacity of t&heir pipelineto around 400,000 barrels daily before the end of 1975. Within this frameof reference production could reach 445,000 barrels daily by 1977, providedtemporary or permanent use was made of the Orito-Tumaco line. A total pro-duction of 20,000 barrels daily is estimated for 1977 from fields operatedby CEPE within easy reach of the Texaco/Gulf pipeline. Judgements as to

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further increases in production beyond this level, must await the evaluationof CEPE's Tivacuno field, of the Giguino area belonging to Anglo, and thediscovery of new reserves. In line with the expected production profile,total investment (exclusive of new refineries and installations to handlerefined products in the domestic market) should amount to $426 million inthe period 1973-77. Local currency expenditures would represent about 30percent of the total investment, amounting to $126 million. The invest-ment estimates include disbursements by new contractors to cover minimumexploration commitments and the development of additional producing capacityfrom existing or new contract areas for the period after 1977.

19. The national oil company--Corporacion Estatal Petrolera Ecuatoriana(CEPE)--was formed by executive decree on June 23, 1972, to engage in allaspects of the petroleum industry. CEPE is a public corporation wholly-ownedby the Ecuadorian Government and attached to the Ministry of Natural Resourcesand Energy. It is administered by a seven-member board of directors. Thecompany is empowered to operate directly to acquire shares in existing cor-porations and to undertake operations through contracts of associations orservice contracts. Its activities will cover exploration, development,production, refining, distribution and the sale of crude petroleum,'liquidniatural gas and natural gas.

20. In the first year of activity, CEPE has given priority to therenegotiation of the contracts of association (Cayman and OKC), pipelinetransportation and LPG imports and distribution. The company has p:acedin operation the 350 kilometer Duran-Quito 6" products line (belong_ng toENFE). It is moving about 2,000 barrels daily of gasoline (about one-quarterof total capacity) to the Quito area from the coast. CEPE has taken overthe importation of LPG, having successfully negotiated a two-year contractwith producers abroad. It does not, however, market LPG, but rather resellsit to local distributors. In addition, the company intends to obtain directoperating experience by managing the small Santa Elena fields, which haverecently reverted to the nation. These fields, wi-lch are considered marginalproducers, only yield about 500 barrels daily. The total investment plansof the national oil company over the next four years are ambitious. Althoughfnral figures are not available, the m-ission estimates that the public sectorprograxn will amount to $183 million. The investment program covers theEsieraldas refinery, LPG plants and other facilities, the internal distribu-ion and transportation of refired products and the direct development of

pe roleum areas. Furtherniore, additional acreage in Eastern Ecuador will beexplored also -L-hrough asso^iation contIracts with foreign companies. Thecompany would like to see three conIrac-Ls signed in the next year or so.The public petroleum seCtor has attracted a group of highly motivated andaedicated pro~essi ceals, -oth }v the !Kinistry of Natural Resources and thena Tonan oil compan. Indeed ore iriprovement in the public managemerit ofpe;role-LuT resources has been remarkable. However, if CEPE is to embarksuccessfully on an invest.ment and work program of the magnitude envisaged,

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the company will have to strengthen considerably its staff and its financialstructure. The company has had a measure of success in the first year ofoperation, but it will require outside assistance, as is normal at this stage,in project and oil field management.

21. As is to be expected, up to now CEPE has not generated any signifi-cant cash flow in relation to its initial investment needs. This is ofparticular importance with respect to the direct exploration and developmentactivity that the company has in mind, because in order to procede with thedevelopment of the Bermejo and Tivacuno fields, the company needs substantialfinancial assistance and technical advice. The size and timing of oil fielddevelopment programs also very much depended on the amount of domestic re-sources actually made available to CEPE, the conditions under which externalfinancing is obtained and the extent to which technolocy must be brought infrom abroad. CEPE has now been provided with ample financial resources throughthe purchase by the Government of 25 percent of the equity of Texaco/Gulf.This gives CEPE 25 percent of the consortium's current output. At the currentlevel of production of 210,000 barrels per day and after deducting governmentroyalties, CEPE's share would amount to about 15 million barrels per year,or about $131 million at current petroleum world prices. It would be advis-able for CEPE to examine arrangements which would give it access to externalfinancing whilst retaining maximum control over the entire operation.

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IV. THE PUBLIC INVESTMENT PROGRAM

A. The National Development Plan, 1972-77

22. In order to establish the basis for the rational utilization ofthe additional resources accruing to Ecuador frorn petrolewm production andexports and thus foster the country's economic growth and social development,the Government adopted n 1972 a five-year developrent plan (Plan In:.egralde Transformaci6n v Desarrollo) as the frame of reference of its objectivesand ways to achieve them. The plan itself consists of a series OI macro-economic projections and targets to achieve the overall economic and socialgoals described in the Government's political action plan. In summary thesegoals are:

(a) Tfo strenguhen the unity of -che cojultry through agreater degree of physical and social integrationand the assertion of national sovereignty;

(b) to strengthen and expand the productive capacity ofthe country through a more efficiernt utilizaticnof its natural resources; and

(c) to improve the living conditions of the poorestsegments of the population.

23. As suggested by its narne (Plan Tntegral de Ira-sforrmaci6n :.rDesarrollo) and b-v o of th_ broad goals established in .ne Governme:t' spolitical action plan just mentioned, the deve1oomerie, plan aims no-t only ataccelerating the c.un;.ry's economic growth but at L 1 n, abcrut somestruct.ural socioeconomic changes as well. Achn-evrvemeni c_r the latter wilbe souglit thrcugh arn agrarian reforn and by gtiv-.,- a strorg emphas-s in .heobjectives of lree plan to the 4r-^.ton 0' ernploy, en . his last - espectthe plan sets ou. the dual objective of absorbin -nprodctive -.the annual increase of tihe labor force--aoout 3.- perc.e n--ard at reducingthe present level of undae1-employment and transient emnloymet 5uiLdouble objective is to be achieved oy expandang the gross domestie prod-actat an annual average of 10.1 percent during the five-year per-od 19',[-7 .This growt;h rate is considerably in excess of what has been achieve irnthe 1) 6 0's, but it was already exceeded last year as a reslt of tihe expan-sion of the petroleum sector and its repercussions on the overall gr-:wthof the economy. It could be therefore attained--and under certain assump-tions even exceeded--provided that proper policies are followed.

2L. In terms of the sectoral disti-bution of the overall growth, thetargets set out in the plan are as follows:

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Table I: PAST AND PLANNED GROWIH RATES OF GDP BY SECTORS

Average Annual Growth Ratesat Factor Cost (percent)

1965-71 1972-77

Agriculture 3.1 5.3Manufacturing and mining(Excluding petroleum) 5.8 10.1

Fisheries -0- 9.6Construction (mainly roads,irrigation, and to a lesserextent, housing) 4.6 11.2Electric Power 10.2 12.8Petroleum -0- 41.3Others 8.4 17.8

Total 6.2 10.1

It is clear from the table that the major sources of growth, apart frompetroleum itself, are expected to be manufacturing, construction, electricpower and the "others" category, which consists of trade, banking, govern-nent and other services. The lowest growth rate is foreseen for agricul-ture, probably in view of the structural deficiencies which characterizesthis sector. The comparison of the annual growth rates targets establishedin the plan with the actual growth registered during 1965-71 shows that,except for electric power, where the projected increase is moderate, theplanned annual growth rates reflect a strong acceleration, ranging fromabout 71 percent in agriculture and 74 percent in manufacturing, to over143 percent in construction and 112 percent in miscellaneous services.

25. In order to achieve these production goals, the level of invest-ment will need to be increased substantially. According to the plan, atthe end of the five-year period, fixed capital formation would have toreach 20.5 percent of GDP. Total investment in this period would have toamount to almost 70 billion sucres (at 1972 prices) and the share of thepublic sector in total investment would have to increase from 30 percentto 40 percent. While the availability of financial resources--includingthe necessary foreign exhcange--would not be a constraint, achieving theoverall investment target, though possible, will be a difficult task.It will require vigorous and successful efforts to increase rapidly theeconomy's absorptive capacity for productive investment through the

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identification and preparation of economically sound and technically well-prepared projects and to overcome the particularly marked weaknesses ofcertain key sectors, notably agriculture. Attaining individual investmenttargets is likely to vary substantially from sector to sector. Agriculture-- excluding the large irrigation infrastructure contemplated--will cfferthe greatest difficulties. Substantial increases in production and produc-tivity cannot be achieved by concentrating efforts in a few large p.rojects.Rather it will be necessary to successfully reach thousands of farm urnitsspread all over the country. Such an effort faces constraints becauLse ofthe scarcity of trained manpower who can assist farmners In the use of moderntechnological inpu-ts and credit. This constraint has been exacerbated by pricecontrol and support policies, which in the past have failed to offer farmersthe necessary incentives to invest and to expand outpu-t. The uncertaintiesarising out of the recently enacted agrarian reform legislation may operateas an additional unfavorable factor. Achieving the planned targets inmanufacturing may prove more feasible, especially in view of the ac:eleratedinvestment that appeared to be already taking place since last year and ofthe advantage offered to Ecuador's exports by the complete opening ,f theAndean Group markets since January 1,1974. Ecuador's investment capacityin construction is relatively good and can probably expand rathier q ickly,Tihis is particularly true with regard to road building and housing. Tcbring some of the large irrigation works to the stage of implementation ina significant way over the next five years, however, will require v-,rydetermined efforts on the part of the authorities.

B. The 1973-74 Program Budget

26. The strengths and weaknesses of Ecuador's public investrrevtcapaci ty in the different sectors noted above, a-re brought out by ('. ntrast-ing the sectoral investment targets contained in toe plan and those setout in the 1973-74 program budget. ITe differences essentially ;E:<- toconfirm the mission's own assessmnent, briefl-y s-mmarized above.

27. The Ecuadorian Government adoptWed in 1972 the t.chniqlue.---Elsofollowed in several other countries--of formulating the deve nopment planfor a period of five years and implementing it, as far as public se:torinvestment is concerned, through biannual program budgets. 7Pe nee;- toallocate scarce financial resources which is the very esserce of t.hebudgetary process, forces a scrutiny of the actual investment capab-ilityof public agancies by the central authorities, maling the prograrn b-.dgetmore realistic and meaningful from the point of view of the likelihcod ofits actual implementation. This is not to say that figures contained inthe budget may not be over-optimistic. but, relative to the plan, theyconstitute a better approximation of what the authorities consider nrorelikely and feasible to achieve over the budget period.

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28. The table below offers a comparison of the investment targetscontained in the plan and in the budget for the period 1973-74:

Table II: SECTORAL PUBIIC INVESTMENT TARGETS, PLANNED AND BUDGETED, 1973-74

(In millions of 1972 sucres)

(a) as a (a) as a(a) 1973 (b) Percent (a) 1974 (b) Percent

Sector Budget Plan oTf b7 Budget Plan of (b)

Agriculture 52.8 128.0 41 58.5 167.1 35Irrigation 58.8 42.2 140 62.1 65.5 95Energy 826.0 603.1 137 996.0 672.2 148Highways 881.4 726.7 121 834.7 844.7 99Railways 60.0 138.1 43 60.0 136.8 44Air Transport 57.0 205.2 28 43.6 192.3 23Telecommunications 254.7 250.3 102 276.6 159.8 173Water/Sewerage 51.3 60.0 86 71.8 80.0 90Education 238.4 230.6 103 166.9 182.8 91Health 40.0 134.9 30 106.4 181.0 59Other 232.6 378.6 61 117.9 897.L42 134

Total 2,753.0 2,917.7 94 2,894.5 3,579.6 81

lDoes not include Forestry.7 Includes investment in refinery, financed out of revenues accruing to CEPE.

Source: National Planning Board

In our view, in many instances the targets contained in the plan reflect betterthan the budget the needs of the economy and the priorities that should beattached to them. This is particularly so with respect to agriculture, health,electric power and highways. For the first two sectors mentioned, the plan'sfigures are substantially higher than the budgetts; for the last two thereverse is the case. The somewhat higher figures for power may overestimatethe investment capacity of INECEL, but also probably reflect the availabilityof funds accruing to the agency from the share of petroleum royalties earmarkedfor the sector. In the case 2' highways, the higher figure in the budgetpossibly indicates some differences of opinion with regard to the priority ofspecific projects. The considerably lower figures in the budget for agriculture

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and health, clearly do not reflect lower priority for these two sectors,which all the authorities place highly, but a more realistic view of whatinvestment can be accomplished in the budget period. Unfortunately nofigures on public investment by sectors in 1973 are yet available. Indica-tions are, however, that the actual investment performance was poor', owingto shortage of ready projects, which also makes it advisable to provide foronly a moderate increase for agriculture in 1974. The substantial increaseprovided for health in 1974 over last year, reflects the inclusion of thewater supply and sewerage project for Guayaquil and the overall prcgramfor the expansion of health services which is in an advanced state ofpreparation.

29. The specific investment projects contained in the in-ventory compiled by the Planning Board last year were grouped according totheir state of preparation. This is shown in the following table:

Table III: STATE OF PREPARATION OF PUBLIC INVESTMENT PROJECTSAS OF JUNE 30, 1973

Project Project InvestmentStatus (as of 6/30/73) Number millions of 1972 sucres %

Idea 62 16.0 2.27 6.9Prefeasibility 59 15.3 6.88 21.0Feasibility 26 6.7 5.65 17.3

Sub-total 147 38.0 14.80 45.2

Appraisal 10 2.6 1.89 5.8Financing Secured 14 3.6 3.31 10.1Project Design Stage 61 15.8 1.40 4.3Bid/Contbract 11 2.8 2.29 7.0

Sub-total 243 62.8 23.7 72.4

Project Started 144 37.2 9.0 27.6

TotLa 387 100.0 32.7 100.0

Scurce: National Planning Board

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30. About 38 percent of all projects, representing 45 percent ofthe total investment contemplated in the plan, are still in a very pre-liminary stage of project preparation. A further 25 percent of projectsare at a more advanced stage (27 percent of total investment), and 37percent of projects are presently being carried out (28 percent of totalinvestment). Whilst too much emphasis should not be attributed to theexactness of these figures, almost two-thirds of all these projects arestill at some preparatory stage. The following table further breaks downby sector the state of preparation of the categories contained in the pre-ceding table:

Table IV: FUTURE PROJECT INVESTMENT ACCORDING TO STAGE OFPREPARATION, EXPRESSED AS PERCENTAGE OF CONTEMPLATED

INVESTMNT IN THE CORRESPONDING SECITOR

Subsector Stage I Stage II Stage III Stage IV

Agriculture a 45 55 _Irrigation - 90 10Energy 15 8 66 11Highways - - 84 16Railways 2Air Transport 72 10 18 _Ports /3 _ (5°) (5°)Telecommunications - 73 27Water/Sewerage - - 100 -Education 2 78 15 5Health 30 30 40Multisectoral A - 78 22Others

Stage I: IdeaStage II: Prefeasibility, feasibilityStage III: Appraisal, financirg secured, project designStage IV: Bid offers received or contract awarded

1 Does not include forestry.No new projects contemplated. Planned rehabilitation work has been delayed.No detailed analysis has been conducted. Mission estimated that some newprojects were well-prepared and that about 50 percent of future investmentcorresponded to Stage II

A Babahoyo and Daule Peripa projects. Total investment 2,840 million sucres.

Source: National Planning Board and mission estimates

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The table strikingly reveals the strengths and weaknesses of the publicsector agencies in project preparation. In highways, telecommunicati ns,water and sewerage and, to a lesser extent, ports and electric power, newprojects are at a relatively advanced stage of preparation. In agric-ilture,and to a lesser extent, education and health, many new investment projectshave not progressed beyond the stage of mere "ideas." TLhis clearly hasimportant implications for the objectives and investment targets of t.ieDevelopment Plan in these sectors and points to sectoral needs for promptcorrective measures.

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V. DEVELOPMENT ISSUES AND POLICIES

A. The Basic Problem

31. As shown in Chapter II, petroleum has become a major activity,which is bound Lo have a decisive influence on Ecuador's developmentprospects. It has now brought to the fore, in concrete terms, severalproblems and issues of development policy that coild be foreseen onlyas possibilities just two years ago. As stressed in the several Bankeconomic reports since 1970, the large additional financial resourcesaccruing to Ecuador from petroleum offer the country the opportunity ofbreaking away from the vicious circle of low savings and low investmentthat has been a major constraint in the past.

32. But while offering this opportunity, petroleum activity, be-cause of its characteristics, poses also problems which will have to beresolved if this new wealth is to have a favorable and nationwide influenceand make a lasting contribution to the country's sustained economic growthand to the well-being of its people. The significance and implications ofthe development of petroleum exports which are large in relationto the size of the economy, are far reaching and eomplex. Even before thepetroleum boom, Ecuador was a highly dualistic country: a relatively smallmodern agricultural export sector contrasted with a vast traditional sectorupon which almost half the population depends. If anything, petroleum de-velopments have exacerbated dualism and external dependence. The directeffects of the new highly capital-intensive investment will be limited.As the resources that Ecuador receives from petroleum accrue almost entirelyto the State--either to the Central Government or to other public entities--the sector's contribution towards a stronger and better-balanced economicstructure, and to the creation of employment opportunities and the ameliora-tion of the existing sharp disparities of incomes and living standards ofthe population, will depend on the use that the State makes of the amplefinancial resources at its disposal. Unless these new resources are put toproper use, the new source of wealth may aggravate, rather than alleviate,the existing imbalances of the economic structure and its unhealthy socialconsequences.

33. The strong balance of payments resulting from petroleum exportsmay tend also to mask a possible deterioration of the cost-price relation-ship of the agricultural exports--the country's single largest source ofgainful employment-- and affect their competitive position in the externalmarkets. The large revenues accruing to the Central Government and therest of the public sector naturally result in much larger public expenditures.These are of particularly strong expansionary effects, as most of the in-crease is financed with petroleum revenues rather than with income previously

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taken from the population through the tax systemn. The huge petroleumrevenues will also tend to weaken the efforts required to improve theexisting tax system as well as the finances of the revenue-earning publicenterprises. Finally, they cannot fail to exert pressures on wage levels--as has already been apparent last year--and thus add to the inflationarypressures from the costs side.

3h. Under these circumstances, the first basic objective of a develop-ment-oriented strategy would be, therefore, to utilize the resources accru-ing from petroleum for strengthening and expanding the non-petroleum sectorsof the economy so as to develop their potential, make fuller use of thecountry's natural and human resources and reduce the degree of newly-createddependence from petroleum. This calls for the most vigorous efforts inrapidly expanding public investment in the infrastructure facilities andthe provision of the public services required for increasing agriculturaland industrial output and productivity. Given the present limited capacityfor rapidly expanding public investment, the time-lag involved in buildingmajor infrastructure works and the fact that the petroleum resources accrueto the State while the private sector's own resources remain more :limited,an essential feature of government policy should be to provide the privatesector adequate amounts of commercial bank credit to finance the expansionof production and long-term credit facilities for investment--through theNational Development Corporation, COFIEC and other financial intermediaries--out of the large public savings accumulating.

35. A second issue of government policy in Ecuador is to control theinflationary pressures arising from the large inflow of foreign exchange,larger public expenditures and rising national incomes in such a way asnot to stifle the growth of the non-petroleum sectors. Ecuador is now inthe fortunate position of having ample foreign exchange earnings whichmake it possible to meet the increasing domestic demand by expandingimports. In the present conditions of worldwide inflation, however, thefreeing of imports can only alleviate the problem, and a degree of in-flation imported through higher import prices is virtually inevitable.The real basic problem facing the Ecuadorian authorities, however, -isthat an anti-inflationary policy that would essentially rely on satisfy-ing the growth of demand through larger imports, if pursued indiscriman-ently, would stifle the needed expansion of industrial and agriculturaloutput and frustrate the growth potential of the non-petroleum conmmcdity-producing sectors and related supporting services on which the possibilitiesof providing productive employment for Ecuador's fast-growing labor forcedepends. If in its efforts to control inflation the Government would pursuepolicies that would deprive the private sector of the credit required forexpanding output and increasing investment, would subsidize imports andmjaintain price ceilings and support prices at levels not conducive to stimu--ate domestic production, a large proportion of petroleum resources wouldleak out of the system in unwarranted imports, while the growth potential of,he non-petroleun sectors of the economy would be stifled, thus preventing,he atLainment of a higher rate of overall economic growth.

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B. Government Strategy and Policies

36. Aware of the nature of the basic problem and determined to usethe opportunity offered by the development of petroleum for attaining theeconomic and social goals established in the Plan Integral de Transformaciony Desarrollo it formulated and adopted in 1972, the Government is pursuinga development strategy which can be interpreted as consisting of three maincomponents. The first has required the most immediate and urgent attention:to face up to the strong inflationary pressures, a problem which, if handledsatisfactorily, may prove to be of short-term character but, that otherwise,may become unmanageable and prejudice the medium- and long-term developmentprospects of Ecuador. A second thrust of the Government strategy aims atlaying the basis for soundly-based and sustained economic growth by improvingand expanding the physical infrastructure and services required for thegrowth, diversification and the more efficient operation of the commodity-producing sectors. The third component of the development strategy aims ateffecting certain structural reforms and improving the social infrastructureof the country and the distribution of the benefits of growth to the popula-tion through the expansion of social services, especially education andhealth.

The Problem of Inflation

37. In recent times the Ecuadorian economy has functioned underconditions of relative monetary stability. During the decade ending in1972, the rate of inflation, as measured by the GDP deflator, was about 6percent,annually on the average and though it accelerated somewhat in recentyears, it was still below 9 percent in 1971 and 1972. The fast rise ofprices registered last year--about 12 percent--resulting from increasingdemand and limited immediate response of domestic supply, was concentratedmnainly in food, medicines and other items of popular consumption. Themagnitude of the potential inflationary threat and the fact that inflationwas hitting mainly the working classes and the poor generally, made thecontrol of inflation the greatest and most immediate concern of theGovernment.

38. The Government's anti-inflationary policies exhibit two clearlydistinct phases. The first measure aimed at arresting the rapid rise ofprices. Faced with the prospects of strong pressures on demand as theproduction and export of petroleum became a reality in the second half of1972, the authorities took early action to gradually remove restrictionson imports. In a series of steps initiated in August 1972--at the timeoil exports began--the Central Bank reduced the requirement of advanceimport deposits, which have been Ecuadorts traditional instrument ofrestricting imports, and which had stood at a particularly high levelduring 1971 and had been maintained at 45 percent of the value of the

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imports of List I (essential commodities) and at a 100-130 percent

for List II (other commodities) until August 1972. Through a process

of successive reductions accelerated since August 1972, the advance

deposit requirements were finally totally eliminated in April 1973.

The licensing system has been maintained, but only for recording pur-

poses, as licenses are granted automatically. Freed from restrictions,

imports increased sharply; an estimated 35 percent above the already

relatively high level of 1972. The liberalization of imports under

existing world market conditions could not prove sufficient to prevent

the increase in prices which--measured by the Cost of Living Index of

Qu'ito and Guayaquil--continued to rise throughout the year, reaching

about 12 percent in 1973, i.e., nearly twice the rate of inflation in

recent years. However, the freeing of imports and their rapid expansion

--even though at rising prices--contributed to keep the rate of infla-

tion considerably lower than otherwise would have been the case.

39. The authorities coupled the liberalization of imports with

control of the expansion of domestic credit. The improved fiscal situa-

tion made possible a substantial reduction of net credit outstanding to

the public sector already by mid-1973 and, as of the end of November 1973,the Central Government had reduced its indebtedness to the banking system

--essentially the Central Bank. With regard to credit to the private

sector, the Central Bank maintained the measure adopted in 1972 of

allowing only a 3 percent quarterly increase in private banks total

portfolios and requiring them to deposit any excess in the Central Bank

for possible utilization in financing priority projects and programs

through the 'fondos Financierost" (which have replaced the original trust

funds--"Fondos Fiduciarios"-- established in 1971). The authoritiescoupled the moderate expansion of new credit extended to the private

sector with the elimination of the advance import deposits, as mentioned

earlier.

40. The combination of allowing only a moderate expansion of total

bank's portfolios with the release of the advance import deposits, was

designed to provide the private sector with sufficient liquidity without

a corresponsing expansion of the money supply. This policy seems to have

worked well up to the month of November, as it had allowed a considerable

expansion of imports while the money supply increased only moderately--

10 percent. The situation changed drastically during December, however.

The Christmas seasonal expansion of the demand for money, coupled with a

large inflow of capital--reflected in large purchases of foreign exchange

by the Central Bank in the free market--resulted in a 26 percent increase

of currency in circulation and a 34.4 percent increase in monetary depositsat the close of 1973 over 1972--a total expansion of the money supply of

30.4 percent (Table 6.1, Statistical Appendix). A subs-tantial part of the

increase--particularly of the currency in circulation--probably will bereabsorbed this year. In order to reduce the pressure of reserves on expan-

sion of the money supply, the Government took advantage of the furtherincrease in foreign exchange reserves in 1974 to pay off the $40 million Bank

loan it had contracted for budget suppor-t early in 1972.

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41. While it may be concluded that the policies followed by theauthorities last year were fairly successful and the economy's performancesatisfactory, the threat of inflation remains and is likely to be greaterin 197h. The successive increases in the petroleum reference price duringthe last quarter of 1973, bringing it to the present level of $13.70 perbarrel, will further increase considerably the resources accruing toEcuador from petroleum activities. Rising domestic prices made inevitablethe salary adjustments decreed by the Government during the last weeks of1973. The Government has resisted the demands for across-the-board increasesin wages and salaries linked to changes in the Cost of Living Index-and theadjustments accorded at the end of last year are relatively moderate (seeparagraph 50 below). The much larger budget adopted by the Government forthe current year, however, will add significantly to the pressure of demand.

42. The second phase is more comprehensive in scope and purpose; apolicy package enacted by the Government in a series of decrees issued inthe second half of December and additional measures taken in March-April1974, include significant measures in the fields of fiscal, trade, pricesand incomes policy. Taken together, they represent an important effortfor reconciling the control of inflation with the economic and socialobjectives of the Government's developnent program by attacking inflationnot only by controlling consumption demand, but also stimulating domesticsupply. These measures will be discussed in the sections immediately below.

Fiscal Policy

43. From the point of view of reducing the inflationary pressures andof its contribution towards bui'ding up public savings for investment andEcuador's medium-and long-term growth, the single most important decisionadopted in December 1973 was to earmark for investment purposes the addi-tional revenues accruing to the Central Government from the increase ofthe petroleum reference price above the $7.30 per barrel existing on NoNovember 10, 1973. Following the trend started early last year and therecent actions taken by the large petroleum producers, Ecuador raisedthe reference price, on which the State revenues from oil production andexports are based, from $2.50 per barrel in August 1972, when petroleumproduction began, to $13.70 per barrel in force since January 1974 (Table8.4, Statistical Appendix).

4h. Ecuador's system of taxing and otherwise obtaining revenues frompetroleum production and exports is quite complex (see the summary containedin Table 8.4 of the Statistical Appendix). On the basis of this system ofthe present reference price of $13.70 per barrel iJ, and estimated exportsof 61.4 million barrels, total public sector petroleum revenues in 1974 are

The reference price is $13.70 per barrel of 280 API and $13.90 on thebasis of the actual average density of Ecuadorian oil.

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estimated at about $602 million, compared to about $339 million, had thereference price of $7.30 in force in November 1973 been maintained. Thoughthe Government's decision excluded the revenues accruing fromroyalties, it still covers about two-thirds of the total amount accruingto Ecuador from the increase of the reference price. These additionalfunds are being entirely segregated from the budget and deposited with theCentral Bank in a special account kept in dollars. The resources accumu-lated in this National Development Fund (Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo) wereto be used only for financing specific investment projects as they becomeready for implementation. As initially contemplated, the utilization ofthese resources required a special decision of -the President of the Republicupon the reconmendation of a conmittee consisting of the Minister ofFinance, the General Manager of the Central Bank and the President of thePlanning Board. Later, the membership of the committee was enlarged includ-ing several ministers, and the utilization of the Fund's resources is not inpractice so strict as originally intended.

45. As noted above, the segregation does not include the revenues re-ceived by Ecuador from royalties on petroleum production. Such revenues,which accrue to the public sector from the sale of 16 percent of totalpetroleum production, were earmarked from the beginning of oil productionand exports in August 1972 at the ratios of 50 percent for the armed forces,47 percent for the development of the power sector and 3 percent to :JheMinicipality of Esmeraldas. Last year, the revenues obtained from the saleof the l4 million barrels of oil corresponding to royalties, amounted to$70 million. At the present reference price of $13.90 per barrel sa3 underthe terms of the existing sales contract, the revenue from royalties thisyear would amount to about $200 million. Such amounts would appear out ofall proportion to the needs for which they were originally earmarked. Ifpetroleum prices remain high--even though lower than in March 1974--itwould seem justified for the Government to substantially reduce the sharesat present earmarked and keep the corresponding funds in the Central Govern-ment. In any case, it would be advisable for the Government not to continuenor extend the practice of earmarking petroleum revenues for specific purposes.

L6. A major structural weakness of Ecuadorts public finances for manyyears has been the practice of widespread earmarking of tax proceeds, whichhas resulted in the Central Government retaining only about 50 percent ofits tax revenues. The weak financial position of the Central Govirnmenthas severely limited its capacity to invest, and has led to chronic f:iscaldeficits, heavy borrowing from the Central Bank and balance of paymentsdifficulties. It. has made fiscal management in Ecuador particularlydifficult, and has probably resulted inr lower public savings and investmentthan otherwise would have been the case, and also made difficult thealoca 4orn of public funds for purposes based on national priorities

- 23 -

considerations. The practice of widespread earmarking of fiscal revenuesfor specific purposes, institutions and localities is deeply rooted in thesocioecononmic fabric of the countrv and it wobld be extremely difficult toerase it from, the gener-al tax system. But petroleiu revenues offer now tothe Government an exceptionally good opportunity for strengthening itsfinancial position and to better discharge its national responsibilitiesand carry out the development program to which it is conmlitted.

47. Having decided to set apart the petroleum revenues accruing toit in excess of the reference price of $7.30 per barrel. the CentralGovernment budget for 1974 has been formulated cn that basis. Net fiscalrevenues, i.e., ne-t of CATIS (Certificados de Abonos Tributarios) areestima-ted at S/. 1l0,23L million, representing an increase of about 36 percentover last year's. Total expenditures net of amortization, have been budget-ed at S/. 10, 317--an increase of about 32 percent--resulting in an estimateddeficit of S/. 83 million, compared to about S/. 185 million in 1973. As thelarge increase of expenditures provided in the budget would have strong ex-pansionary effects, the budget will be administered under a specific directiveof the President of the Republic aimed at keeping the increase of actual ex-penditures at not more than 20 percent over las-t year's. This is to beaccomplished by a close scrutiny of appropriation requests which will givepriority to investment expenditures and will take inlto account the feasibilityof their actually taking place, and by limiting not clearly justified in-creases in current expenditures of the ministries and other expanding agencies.It remains to be seen how effective such management of the budget proves tobe in practice. However, a most positive indication that the Government doesintend to enforce a strict management of the budget is the decision recentlytakcen that the salary increases decreed for government employees in earlyMarch 1974 have to be financed out of the present budget allocations of theseveral ministries and agencies and not by increasing the budget.

48. The other fiscal measures taken in the last few weeks are specifi-cally directed to face up to the need of stimulating domestic agriculturalproduction, particularly as regards foodstuffs. To support the Governmentand private sector efforts to expand output as quickly as feasible, theGovernment has allocated to the Ministry of Agriculture, in addition to itsregular budget allocation, the revenues accruing from the sale of petroleumfor domestic consumption, amounting to some S/. 265 million. It has alsocompletely eliminated tariff duties on agricultural inputs and abolishedthe 4 percent tax on business transactions as they affect the purchases ofagricultural inputs.

Trade and Price Policies

49. In the trade field, besides the nmeasures initially taken concerningtariff duties exemptions for agricultural inputs, the Government subsequentlyhas revised the whole import tariff, reducing or eliminating comlpletely importduties on a broad list of inputs for agriculture and industry and on capital

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goods. In the new situation created in Ecuador, the intention is tomake the tariff the main instrument of trade policy and of stimulat:ngdomestic production, as the revenue raising func tJion of th e tariff h-t s be-come less important. It is estimated that the enacted tariffs reductionamounts to some S/. 600 million. The recently created public agencyEMPROVIT (Empresa de Productos Vitales) has undertaken the direct iripcrta-tion of several basic food items and its distribution at prices destgnedto prevent unwarranted price rises by the private merchants. For the tinebeing, E1TROVJT's operations covered only several basic products and cnlyabout 2C percent of the estimated needed supplies, a proportion tha- isconsidered sufficient for enforcing the authorities price control policies.An interesting effort to stimulate domestic production is being tried bythe private sector concerning barley. The breweries have, of their ownaccord, entered into an agreement with the growers wihereby- they have sub-stantially increased their purchase price and are providing the farrnerswith credit and technical ass3stance to expand output. if successful.,this experiment could be extended to many other lines of processed agri-cultural products. Finally, in its efforts to stimulate producticon.and as a result of a study of existing price ceilings and support priceswhich called for recommendations in a short period, the Government hasrecently raised substantially both the price ceilings and the supp)ortprices for rice, meat, milk, sugar, wheat and oil seeds. Support pricesal- farm gate were adjusted upward ranging from 17 percent for corn to32 percent for rice. According to the Government's study, the adjustedsupport prices will give producers a gross return ranging from 14 pCrcentin sugarcane to 32 percent in rice. Wholesale and retail prices wereadjusted upward so as to maintain the pre-Dious margins. Mhe adjustrentsare expected to effectively stimulate expansion of output of these- Casiccommodities in the popular diet.

Income Policies

50. The policy package adop'ted by the Government -t De-embe:- al<cincluded several measures of income policy which, apart. fro thei Tn,rLnslC

significance, are high-ly indicative of the authorities' posture i-r thismost sensitive and important field. While recognizing the need for sal-iryadjustments, as wages and salaries have been lagging behind the rate ofinflation for some years, the Government has resisted the press.ures foracross-the-board increases linked to thie Cost of Living Index. T'he measuresrecentlv taken combine moderate wages and salaries adjustments at specifiedsalary brackets with increases in the personal income tax exemptions, alsoin specified income brackets.

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51. Both the salaries and the income tax adjustments, have beenconcentrated in the lower income brackets and the rates of increase arein inverse proportion to the salary level brackets, as follows:Minimum monthly salary, general: from S/. 750 to S/. 1,000.Fourteenth monthly salary:

a) For Workers earning up to S/. 2,000 125 percentb) For Workers earning over S/.2,000 and up to S/. 4,000 30 percentc) For Workers earning over S/. 4,000 a maximum of S/. 2,000

On the average, the increases are relatively moderate. These increasesprobably are not sufficient to represent a significant increase of existingreal wages and therefore the salary measures have been complemented withincreases in the exemption of income tax granted for dependents and of thefull value of the rent for non-home owners living in houses with a monthlyrent below S/. 2,000--$80 equivalent. The lowering of the income taxliability for the heads of large families may not be called for in acountry with a 3.4 percent rate of population growth, but under the cir-cumstances it has probably made possible the rather moderate salary in-creases and to that extent contributes to reduce inflationary pressures.

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VI. GROWTH PROSPECTS

A. The Short-Term

52. Ecuador's growth prospects over the next few years are quitefavorable. Petroleum resources are much larger than could be contemplatedin 1972 when the Bank report on the "Current Economic Position and Prospectsof Ecuador" (14a-EC) was written, and favorable developments in commoditymarkets for bananas, coffee, cocoa, sugar and other exports, make even morefeasible the attainment of the overall growth rate of about 11 percent annuallyover the next four years than appeared likely two years ago. Taking a somewhatsober view of the current situation, the mission has based its assessment ofEcuador's growth prospects during 1974-78 on petroleum prices being on theaverage lower than the price Ecuador will obtain in 1974. The 1974 averageprice is influenced by a special sales contract of the 14.04 million barrelsin kind it receives as royalty. Even so, total projected export values areconsidera-oly higher than could be foreseen even a few months ago (Table 3.4,Statistical Appendix).

53. Historically, the expansion of commodities has been the dynamicfactor of Ecuador's overall growth. Production for export has been themain determinant of the capacity to import and to save, and therefore ofthe economy's potential for investment and overall growth. Given Ecuador'seconomic structure, it would therefore appear "a priori" plausible thatthe much higher level of exports and net foreign exchange earnings thatare expected over the next few years, should make possible the attainmentof annual GDP growth rates much higher than the 10 percent earlier con-silered feasible. It does not seem prudent, however, under the circumn-stances, to project rates of overall growth much higher than earlier con-templated, because of a basic characteristic of the high export growthexpected over thie next few years, i.e., that it would result almostentirely from increased petroleum exports. Of the $1.2 billion increaseof commodity exports estimated for 1978 over last year's level (Table 3.4,Statistical Appendix), over $1.1 billion represents the projected increaseof petroleum exports. The expected increase of petroleum exports is notonly very large, both in absolute and relative terms, but also entailssubstantial changes in the role of exports in the economy. The changesconcern the limited direct effects of petroleum activity on employment andincomes. More imrrportant, however, is the fact that it results in a dramaticchange in the economyts sourze of savings, which strongly shifts from theprivate to the public sector. These structural changes are so large thatit seems imprudent to make overall growth projections. These would havehad to be based necessarily on: relationships among the key macro-economicvariables -which laere rathier definite and quite stable in the past, butwhich in the present circumstances no longer hold. From the balance ofpayments and fiscal projections (Tables 3.6 and 5.3, Statistical Appendix)itr seems evident that during ̀974-78, short of a dramatic drop in petoOleumprices, Ecuador's growth possibilities are not likely to suffer from savingsor foreign exchange constraints and tha-t an annual GDP growth rate of 11

- 27 -

percent over the next five years is quite feasible. But, in the lastanalysis, growth rates will depend essentially on the country's abilityto utilize in productive investment an adequate proportion of its largefinancial resources. As such resources accrue almost entirely to theCettral Gcvernment and other public agencies, Ecuadorts growth prospectsdepend a'Amost wholly on the ways the Government and public agencies useth&er finz.acial rescurces, bot.h with regard to public expenditures properand to the transferring of resources to the private sector. So muchdepends, therefore, on the Government's economic policies, that it seemedadvisable not to formulate quantitative projections until t1he EcuadorianGovernment medium-term policies are also better defined tILan at present.

B. Public Fnances

554. Wiuh the much higher petroleum prices than can be expected toprevail over the next few years, Ecuador Is public sector financial re-sources will increase very sharply, reaching about $1.4 billion--S/. 3h.7billion--by 1978 (Table 5.4, Statistical Appendix). During 1968-71--when petroleum revenues were negligible--public sector total revenuesincreased at an annual rate of 7.4 percent in real terms and CentralGovernment reve-nues at 9.9 percent annually, also in real terms (Tables5.2 and 5.3, Statistical Appendix). This rather satisfactory revenueperformance reflected mainly increased collections of taxes on incomeand property and on domestic production and transactions; taxes onforeign trade increased only moderately, as import duty collectionswere practi.cally stagnant. Collections from income tax and taxes ondomestic transactions are not expected to Wow significantly in the nextfew years due to the increased tax exemptions accorded by the Government inDecember 1973. However, despite the recent reductions of tariff duties andtuhe duty exemptions for agricultural inputs, import duties collectionsare likely to continue increasing on account of a rapid expansion ofimports, after allowing for the recent reduction of the average levelof the import tariff, estimated at about 30 percent. On such basis,non-petroleum public sector revenues would grow at an annual averagerate of about 7.5 percent in 1972 prices. Petroleum revenues areestimated to increase from about S/. 4.5 billion in 1973 to aboutS/. 22.3 billion in 1978. Total public sector revenues are thus pro-jected to reach about S/. 34.7 billion--$1.4 billion--in 1978. Assum-ing that public sector current expenditures would grow at an annualaverage rate of 12 percent in real terms--consistent with a GDP growthof 11 percent annually and allowing for the additional current expendi-tures associated with the new investment contemplated--it is clear thatthe public sector would generate current savings sufficient to financethe public investment program and still accumulate substantial surpluses(Table 5.4, Statistical Appendix),

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C. The Balance of Payments

55. During the next few years Ecuador will be in an exceptionallystrong external financial position. Ecuador's commodity exports areprojected to increase from nearly $600 million in 1973 to about $1.8billion in 1978. Petroleum exports would account for about 92 percentof this increase. Imports are projected to expand rapidly, i.e., at anannual average rate of about 29 percent--16 percent in real terms.Investment income payments--mainly from petroleum--are alsoprojectedto increase considerably over the period. Under these assumptionsEcuador is likely to accumulate substantial reserves during 1974-78(Table 3.5, Statistical Appendix). The resources balance will turnstrongly positive in 1974, in contrast to the moderate deficit of 1973and the $121 million deficit registered in 1972. Despite the :^apidgrowth of investment income payments, the current account would showlarge surpluses in 1974-78. Substantial private long-term capital-nflow is estimated to continue over the next four years, thoughpetroleum investment is likely to be lower than in 1970-72. Public long-term capital net inflow is estimated to be ruch smaller than in 1972-73reflecting basically the growing amortization payments on existing loansand the fact that disbursements from new loans contracted durirng theprojection period will not become large until 1976. All told. themission's projection (Table 3.5, Statistical Appendix) would indicate thatduring 1974-78, Ecuador i3likely to gain about $1.5 billion reserves,raising the country's total net reserves to about $1.7 billion by the endof the period.

The Medium-Term

56. The need for succeeding in the efforts to use the petroleumresources for strengthening and expanding the non-petroleum sectors ofthe economy become even more important when Ecuador's growth prospectsare assessed beyond the next five years. As noted earlier, the deter-mining factor of the economy's growth in the immediate future is essen-tially the g'owth of petroleum exports. The country's prospects overthe medium-term would largely depend, therefore, on whether petroleumproduction and exports will continue expanding over a longer period thancan now be foreseen. At the rate of expansion of production ancd exportsprojected in this report, the full capacity of about 450,000 barrels perday of the existing pipeline would be reached by 1977. At full capacityof the pipeline, provea oil reserves of about 1.8 billion barrels atpresent estimated, would last about ten years. As indicated in paragraph16 of this report, as the situation stands at present, most of the oilthat Ecuador can produce over the next decade under exising technologyand taxpaid costs conditions, has already been found. It seems zlear,therefore, that building an additional pipeline woald only be justified

- 29 -

if substantial additional proved reserves are found. This means thata strong effort at stepping up exploration activity is a most es6entialand urgent task for Ecuador. This should be accompanied by changesin the existing tax legislation aimed at making more attractive for theoil producers to further explore and eventually develop the "risk" areas.

57. If petroleum production and exports would cease growing after1977--either because additional proved reserves are not confirmed or owingto pipeline limitations--the economy's rate of growth is likely tc slowdown considerably. The large accumulation of reserves during 1973-77 wouldmake it possible to sustain a high rate of growth for a few more years,but if no new petroleum production increases materialize, by the end ofthe decade Ecuador is likely to begin to experience reserves losses and inthe early 1980's the balance of payments would again become a constrainton economic growth. The less favorable prospects that can be foreseenfor the next decade on the basis of a stagnation of petroleum exports by1978, may occur even earlier if this report's assumptions concerning therate of expansion of consumption prove too conservative and the increase ofinvestment too optimistic. The accumulation of foreign exchange reservesduring the next few years should not, however, call for a revaluation ofthe Sucre. As has just been indicated, there is not as yet assurancethat new petroleum reserves will be found and that petroleum exportswill continue growing beyond 1977. A substantial level of interna-tional reserves may therefore be needed to sustain an adequate levelof imports and economic growth during the last years of this decade.Besides, as it has been indicated earlier (paragraph 33) the favorablebalance of payments position resulting from petroleum exports may maska deterioration of the competitive position of the traditional exportsand the non-petroleum sectors on which direct employment and incomesof a large portion of the population depend. A revaluation, by raisingthe cost of exports and( cheapening imports in terms of local currency,would accentuate such risk and would make more difficult the futherexpansion and diversification of the non-petroleum commodity-producingsectors, which are essential to provide additional employment and tocreate a better-balanced economy.

j As a conservation measure indicated in paragraph 21 above, while thecountry's full petroleum potential is more firmly determined, theGovernment limited production to 210,000 barrels per day. As theGovernment has the option of increasing output at any time, thislimitation, which may prove temporary, does not warrant changing themission's projections nor in the mission's view, invalidate theanalysis based on then.

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58. Given the uncertainties surrounding the continuing expansion ofpetroleum exports beyond 1977 and the difficulties for rapidly expandingdomestic output, particularly in agriculture, it may be concluded thatEcuador's overall growth prospects beyond the next five to six years, arenot yet clear. If the annual rate of economic growth of about 11 percentthat seems attainable over the next five to six years does not prove sus-tainable over a longer period, Ecuador, though having substantiallyraised its per capita income over the 1971 level,would still be a -ooorcountry, with a per capita income of about $500. Continuing increase ofpetroleum exports beyond 1978 woULd by the key factor of further overalleconomic growth, but much will depend also on the success of the Governmentin rapidly expanding the investment capacity of the public sector and inpursuing policies conducive to the rapid expansion of domestic output,particularly of agricultural products and to the strengthening of thenon-petroleum Producing sectors of the economy. The measures recerntlyadopted evidence the authorities'awareness of the nature of the prcblemsthey face and of the policies required. They also show a determinationL.o manage the economy in such a way as to ensure the utilization of

Ecuador's newly-found wealth for building the basis for the country'soustained growth and for spreading its benefits to the broad masses ofthe population. Ecuador deserves the full support of the internationalagencies and governments in carrying out such efforts to success.

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CURRENT ECONOMIC POSITION AND PROSPECTS OF ECUADOR

List of Tables

Table Number

1.1 Population and Labor Force, 1960-69--1975-80

2.1 Gross Domestic Product, Gross National Product, and NationalIncome, 1965-72 (current sucres)

2.2 Domestic Product by Sector of Origin, 1965-72

3.1 Suimmary Balance of Payments, 1965-71

3.2 Merchandise Exports, 1965-72

3.3 Merchandise Imports, by Main Categories, 1970-73--1974-76

3.4 Merchandise Export Projections, 1971-78

3.5 Balance of Payments Projections, 1972-78

4.1 External Public Debt Outstanding as of December 31, 1972.Debt Repayable in Foreign Currency

4.2 Past and Projected Transactions, 1965-92, on External PublicDebt as of December 31, 1972. Debt Repayable in ForeignCurrency

4.3 External Public Debt Outstanding as of December 31, 1972.Debt Repayable in Local Currency

4.4 Past and Projected Transactions, 1965-92, on External PublicDebt as of December 31, 1972. Debt Repayable in Local Currency

5.1 Central Government Cash Operations, 1968-73

5.2 Consolidated Public Sector Operations, 1968-73

5.3 Central Government Cash Revenues, 1968-73

5.4 Estimated Public Sector Revenues and Expenditures, 1972-78

5.5 Fixed Public Investment, by Sectors, 1964-76

-2-

Table Number

6.1 Summary Accounts of the Banking System, 1971-73

6.2 International Reserves of the Banking System, 1965-73

7.1 Bank Credit to the Agricultural Sector, 1950-72

8.1 Total Industrial Credit through Ecuadorian FinancialInstitutions, 1965-72

8.2 Basic Petroleum Data, 1973-77

8.3 Summary of Effects of Petroleum Activities, 1973-77

8.4 Composition of Ecuadorian Petroleum Tax Paid Cost, August 1972-December 1973

9.1 GDP Deflator, Wholesale Price Index, Major Consumer PriceIndices and Annual Weighted Average of Exchange Rates, 1950-72

Table 1.1: ECUADOR - POPULATION AND LABOR FORCE, 1960-69-75-80

______ Thousands Annual Rate of Increase1960 1969 1975 1980 1969760) 1757/6 190/se

Population, Total h,1411 5,973 7,284 8,568 3.4 3.4 3.3Urban 1,506 2,265 2,957 3,774 4.6 4.6 5.0Rural 2,908 3,708 4,327 4,794 2.7 2.6 2.1

Labor Force, Total 2,138 2,859 3,556 4,326 3.3 3.7 4.0Urban 747 1,124 1,505 1,971 4.6 5.0 5.5Rural 1,391 1,735 2,051 2,355 2.5 2.8 2.8

Percentage of Total PopulationUrban 34.1 37.9 40.5 44.oRural 65.9 62.1 59.5 56.oLabor Force 48.4 47.9 48.7 50.1Urban Labor Force 16.9 19.1 20.6 23.0Rural Labor Force 31.1 28.8 28.1 27.5

Composition of Labor Force,PercentsUrban 34.9 39.9 42.3 45.6Rural 61.1 60.1 57.7 54.4

v Population over 14 years to 60 years of age.2/ Estimated.j Projected.

Source: "Proyecci6n de la Poblaci6n del Ecuador," Junta Nacional de Planificacion yCoordinaci on

Table 2.1: ECUADOR - GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT, AND NATIONAL INCOME, 1965-72

(Millions of current sucres)

1965 1966 1967 1966 1969 1970 1971p 1972p

Available Resources

Consumption 18,948 20,586 22,623 24,387 26,903 30,929 37,550 43,900Private 16,110 17,150 19,010 20,069 22,054 25,581 30,906 36,420General government 2,838 3,436 3,613 4,318 4,849 5,348 6,644 7,480

Gross domestic investment 2,789 2,921 3,691 4,279 5,329 8,174 10,492 10,910Increase in stocks 383 406 446 505 585 711 826 1,140Gross fixed investment 2,406 2,515 3,245 3,774 4,744 7,463 9,666 9,770Private 1,473 1,633 2,117 2,506 3,174 5,606 7,536 7,340Public 933 882 1,128 1,268 1,597 1,857 2,130 2,430

Exports of goods & NFS 3,600 3,764 4,o66 4,293 4,140 5,590 6,935 9,201Minus: Imports of goods & NFS 3,662 3,729 4,368 5,129 5,199 7,629 11,452 11,946

GDP at market prices 21,675 23,542 26,012 27,830 31,173 37,o64 43,525 52,065

Minus: Net factor payments 454 463 463 685 728 1,141 1,284 1,210GNP at market prices 21,221 23,079 25,549 27,145 30,445 35,923 42,241 50,855

Minus: Net indirect taxes 1,665 1,832 2,322 2,600 2,720 3,047 3,416 4,155GNP at factor cost 19,556 21,247 23,227 24,545 27,725 32,876 38,825 46,700

Minus: Depreciation 1,067 1,113 1,150 1,210 1,225 1,305 1,760 2,375National income 18,489 20,134 22,077 23,335 26,500 31,571 37,o65 44,325

p Preliminary

Source: Central Bank of Ecuador

lable 2.2: ECUADOR - DOIES1IC PRODUCT BY SECTOR OF ORIGIN, 1965-72

(In millions of current sucres)

1965 1966 1967 196b 1969 1970 1971p 1977p

GDP at factor cost 20,010 21,710 23,690 25,230 28,453 34,017 40,109 47,910

Agricultural sector 6,963 7,464 7,856 7,818 8,763 10,372 11,466 12,569Nonagricultural sector 13,0)47 14,246 15,834 17,412 19,690 23,645 28,643 35,341

Commodity producing 4,670 5,030 5,675 6,272 7 173 8,485 10 379 13,597Mining and quarrying 392 453 500 532 626 2,013

Manufacturing 3,299 3,501 3,884 4,314 4,969 5,713 6,757 8,015Construction 2 788 845 1,040 1,120 1,284 1,728 2,401 2,891Electricity, gas, water 919 231 251 306 347 4I8 523 678

Services L 8 377 9 216 10,159 11 140 12,517 15,160 18,264 21,744Transportation 1,391 1,777 2,091 2,530 3,200Trade A 2,080 2,185 2,420 2,680 3,012 3,505 4,719 5,408Banking, insurance 626 669 749 871 988 1,213 i.,512 1,911Ownership of dwellings 1,238 1,345 1,442 1,578 1,737 1,951 2,500 3,202Other services / 1,989 2,245 2,657 4,455) 5,003) 6,400) 7,003) 8,023)Public administration 1,316 1,512 1,500 ) ) ) ) )

p Preliminary

A Agriculture, forestry, hunting and fishing.2 Incl. sanitary services.

/I Incl. transportation, storage a:fud ouimninications.t Incl. real estate.E Incl. defense.

Source: Central Bank of Ecuador

Table 3.1: ECUADOR - SUMFARY BALANCE OF PAY4ENTS, 1965-71

(In milliors of U.S. dollars)

1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971

1. Exports of Goods and NFS 197.7 203.3 218.0 2 25. 1 219,7 256.1 256,9Merchandise 180.3 18 6.2 201.0 210o .7 19 6. 1 232.3 2132.1

Nonfactor Services 17.4 17.1 17,0 ]3.4 23.6 2.3 26.8

2. Jmports of Goods and NFS 201.0 201.2 234.1 277.7 329.9 3( 465.,7

Merchandise 155.2 151.3 175.7 210.8 242.7 2 'S 93 3;47.9

Nonfactor Services 45.8 49.9 58.4 66.9 87.2 1 0I2 117.8

3. Resource Balance -3.3 2.1 -16.1 -52.6 -110M2 -105.0 -208.8

4. Net Factor Pamen_ts -25.0 -25.2 -24.9 -27.1 -28.4 -33.5 -34.6Interest Payments -4.8 -5.4 -6.3 -7.2 -8.1 -9.9 -10.6

(Public Debt) 1/ 2/ 4/ (-3.9) (-3.8) (-5.0) (-6.0) (-6.8) (-7.0) (-7.1)

(Private Debt, net) (-0.9) (-1.6) (-1.3) (-1.2) (-1.3) (-2.9) (-3.5)

Investment Income -20.2 -19.8 -18.6 -19.9 -20.3 -23.6 -24.0

5. Transfers 9.3 9.4 12.7 13.2 12.3 13.7 13.0

Private 2.2 2.8 5.0 4.7 5.3 5.4 5.0Public 7.1 6.6 7.7 8.5 7.0 8.3 8.0

A. Balance on Current Account -19.0 -13.7 -28.3 -66.5 -126.3 -124.8 -230.4

B. Capital Account1. Direct Investment 3/ 9.9 19.3 32.5 50.3 75.3 90.0 157.0

(Petroleum Sector) (-) (5.0) (5.0) (15.0) (47.9) (64.5) (127.0)

2. Public Long-Term (Net) 4/ 6.3 9.3 22.8 31.9 15.7 31.2 22.5

Gross Disbursements 5/ 14.8 18.4 31.6 44.6 29.5 46.7 46.4

Amortization 2/ 8.5 9.1 8.8 12.7 13.8 15.5 23.9

3. SDR Allocation - - - - - 4.2 3.5

4. Short-Term Capital 6/ -8.6 -2.7 -18.6 -24.6 39.8 -1.2 17.8

5. Change in Reserves 7/(- = increase) 11.4 -12.2 -8.4 8.9 -4.5 -1.8 29.6

Public Debt Service 4/1/2/ 12.4 13.0 13.8 18.7 20.5 22.5 31.0

Debt Service as % of Foreign 6.3 6.4 6.3 8.3 9.3 8.8 12.0

Exchange Earnings

1/ On public and public-guaranteed debt with a maturity of over one year.

2/ Only on debt repayable in foreign currency.3/ Includes net private long-term capital in 1965-70.4/ As shown in IBRD external public debt statistics.5/ Loans disbursed in foreign currency, repayable in foreign and local currency.6/ Includes errors and omissions and difference between IBRD and Central Bank public long-term capital inflows.7/ As shown in the monetary statistics.

Source: Central Bank and IBRD staff estimates.

Table 3.2: ECUADOR - MERCHANDISE EXPORTS 1965-72

(Volume in '000 metric tons, value in US$ million)

1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972

Major Exports

Bananas: Volume 1,200 1,265 1,263 1,252 1,190 1,364 1,351 1,377Unit Value ('/lkg) 8.0 8.3 8.3 8.4 9.0 9.2 9.2 9.1Value 95.9 105.3 lo4.8 104.7 107.1 125.5 124.2 125.5

Coffee: Volume 47.6 43.1 57.9 49.2 38.2 52.6 46.4 51.8Unit Value (#,/lb) 36.5 33.9 31.2 31.6 31.7 43.5 35.8 37.3Value 38.2 32.1 39.8 34.2 26.6 50.5 36.5 4I2.6

Cacao: Volume 39.3 32.2 45.0 65.5 32.6 36.7 50.9 L5.4Unit Value (//lb) 22.1 24.3 25.0 27.0 34.2 27.6 22.7 23.3Value 19.1 17.2 24.8 38.9 24.5 22.3 25.4 23.3

Smugar: Volume 65.1 59.3 67.7 70.9 101.2 64.6 85.9 111, Unit Value (//lb) 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.1 4.9 6.6 7.1 "S'Value 7.3 6.6 7.5 7.9 10.8 9.4 13.5 17.1

Sub-total, Value 160.5 161.2 176.9 185.7 169.0 207.7 199.6 208.5(7 of total non-petroleum) 890) 7 B7) * -) T) ) 72) T97) XM-) 5C777

Othr :xports 19.8 25.0 24.1 25.0 27.1 26.6 43.3 53.7Saood 7.4- 6.7 o. 0.77. 2.4

Pharmaceuticals 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.5 1.7 2.5Oilseeds and Products 2.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.8 1.8 1.8 4.1Cocoa Products 0.1 1.4 1.3 2.5 2.1 2.5 4.5 6. 3Banana Products 0.7 0.7 o.6 o.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0c.Straw Products 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 o.6 2.0 2 Pyrethrum 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.6Wood and Wood Products 2.7 3.6 4.5 4.3 4.2 3.2 3.8 -Minerals o.6 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.0Other 2.9 6.3 2.9 3.2 2.6 5.7 8.4

TOTAL NON-PETROLEUM, VALUE 180.3 186.2 201.0 210.7 196.1 234.3 242.9 262.2

Crude Petroleum: Volume (mln. bl.) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 24.9Value 61i,Unit Value (US$/bl.) 2 `0

TOTAL EXPORTS 180.3 186.2 201.0 210.7 196.1 234.3 242.9 323.2

A Banana and seafood prices have been adjusted for underinvoicing.2 Prior to 1972, the value of crude petroleum exports was about $1 million or less per year.

Source: Central Bank

"able 3.3: ECUADOR - ME,RCiHATDISE IMPORTS BY MAIN CATEGORIES, 1970-73, 1974-76

(In millions of U.S. dollars)

Projected1970 1971 197 2p 1973e 1974 1975 1976

Consumer Goods 49.8 54.4 55.o 77.2 108.8 137.8 205.4

Fuels and Lubricants 17.9 26.6 21.3 25.5 31.h 37.0 44.9

Intermediate Goods 79.8 97.5 104.7 125.5 150.7 177.8 208.4

Capital Gzods, 127.7 182.1 185.6 228.5 280.1 336.0 403.6

of which Petrol. sector (30.0) (76-7) (75.6) (32-5) (75.o) (150.0) (60.0)

Total 271.2 360.7 366.6 456.7 571.0 688.6 862.3

Source: Central Bank of Ecuador and IBRD staff estimates and projections

p Preliminarye Estimate

Table 3.4: ECUADOR - MERCHANDISE EXPORT PROJECTIONS, 1971-78

(Volume in '000 metric tons, value in US$ millions)

Proj ected1971 1972 1973 p 197T4 1975 1976 1977 1978

Major Exports

Bananas: Volume 1, 315 1,377 1,450 1,450 1,450 1-,450. 1,450 1,1450Unit Value (//kg) 9.2 9.1 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.5Value 124.2 125.5 125.0 13h.9 134.9 136.3 137.7 137.7

Coffee: Volume 46.4 51.8 55.o 56.o 58.0 6o.o 63.0 66.oUnit Value (//lb) 35.8 37.3 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.o 50.0 50.oValue 36.5 42.6 66.7 62.0 64.0 66.o 69.0 73.0

Cocoa: Volume 50.9 45.14 45.0 47.0 48.o 50.0 50.0 50.0Unit Value (//lb) 22.7 23.3 30.0 35.o 35.0 35.o 35.o 35.0Value 25.4 23.3 27.2 36.0 37.0 38.0 38.5 38.5

Sugar: Volume 85.9 117.1 81.5 90.0 95.0 loo.o 105.0 110.0Unit Value (//lb) 7.1 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8Value 13.5 17.1 12.0 13.5 14.5 15.0 16.0 16.5

Subtotal 199.6 208.5 236.9 246.4 250.4 255.8 261.2 265.7

Minor Exports 43.3 53.7 68.o 75.0 77.5 80.0 90.0 133.8

Total Non-Petroleum 242.9 262.2 304.9 321.14 327.9 335.8 351.2 399.5

Petroleum: Volume (mn. barrels) - 24.9 71.1 /1 67.5 L8 97.1 120.5 133.2 135.oUnit Value ($/barrel) - 2.50 3.98- 12.18 8.65 9.27 9.88 10.53Value (million $) - 61.0 283.6 822,o 84o.o 1,117.0 1,316.0 1,421.5

Total Merchandise Exports 242.9 323.2 588.5 1,143.6 1,167.9 1,1452.8 1,667.2 1,821.0

P Preliminary

1/ Includes 4.1 million barrels of royalty sold at $5.97 per barrel.Actual prices contracted.

Source: Central Bank of Ecuador and mission projections

able 3.5: ECUADOR - BALANCE OF PAYMNTS, 1972-78

(In millions of U.S. dollars)

Projected1972 1573 1974 1975 1976 1977 1975

1. Exports of goods and NFS 354 548 1,179 1,205 1,493 1,710 1,866

Merchandise 323 516 1,144 1,168 1,h53 1,667 1,821

(Petroleium sector) ( 61) (270) (822) '(840) (1,117) (1,316) (1,421)

Nonfactor services 31 32 35 37 40 43 45

2. Imports of goods and NVS 475 583 735 912 940 1,073 1,228

Merchandise 367 458 593 751 755 860 983

(Petroleum sector) ( 76) 4 h7) ( 75) (150)A( 60) ( 55) ( 50)

Nonfactor services 108 125 142 161 185 213 2h5

3. Resource balance -121 - 35 444 293 553 637 638

4. Net factor payments - 31 - 50 -272 -308 -403 -464 -508

Interest payments 11 17 18 21 25 28 32

Public debt (10) (17) (18) (21) ( 25) ( 28) ( 32)

Private debt (1) (-) ( -) (-)( -)( -)( -)Investment income 20 33 255 287 378 436 476

(Petroleum sector) ( 18) ( 27) (167) (260) ( 346) ( 408) ( 441)

5. Net transfers 16 30 20 22 24 25 25

Balance on current account -136 - 55 192 7 174 198 155

6. Private long-term capital iS'? 85 140 135 110 120 130

(Petroleum sector) (127) ( 67) (100) (108) ( 70) ( 78) ( 70)

7. Public long-term capital 791 63 22 14 15 20 37

Existing loans '79 53 10 - 11 _ 26 - 33 - 29

Disbursements (106) ( 91) (50) ( 32) ( 19) ( 12) ( 9)

Amortization ( 27) ( 38) ( 40) ( 43) ( 45) ( 45) ( 38)

New loans - 10 12 25 41 53 66

Disbursements ( -) ( 10) ( 12) ( 35) ( 55) ( 70) ( 85)

Anortization ( -) ( -) ( -) ( 10) ( 14) ( 17) ( 19)

8. Short-term capi,al - - - - - -

9. Change in rese-7esircreace) -104 - 97 -354 -156 -299 -388 -322

Z2 Preliminary

A 1 Includes the Esmeraldas refinery.21 Includes allocation of SDRs for $3.5 million.

Note: Ecuador's net international reserves at the end of 1972 stood at US$128 million.On the basis of the above projected gains of reserves, by the end of 1976 the

reserves would be about US$1.03 billion, equivalent to one year of the projected

1976 imports. At the end of 1978, the level of reserves, according to theseprojections, would be nearly US$1.7 billion.

Source: Central Bank of Ecuador and IBRD estimates and projections.

Table L.l: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING AS OF DECEMBER 31,1972

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS PAGE 1

DEBT OUTSTANDING DECEMBER 31,1972TYPE OF OFFICIAL LENDING

CREDITOR COUNTRY UNDISTYPE OF CREDITOR DISBURSED BURSED TOTAL

FRANCE 7P534 9*940 17J47?4

GERMANY (FEDsREP.OF) 5*532 2P957 68489

ITALY 20,439 3i326 23,765

JAPAN 7,446 2*465 9s911

MEXICo 2'969 4*234 7,203

SPAIN 9#458 ,o000 17P458

SWEDEN 10T07u 6J778 17.*485

UNITED KINGDOM 855 248 1J,103

USA 952 1,4i7 2J439SUPPLIERS 65f892 39,435 105,327

F:RANCE 453 a 453

ITALY ' 1o613 1s613

SWITZERLAND 1s290 4#151 5,441

USA 44,o567 12P500 57,067PRIVATE BANKS 46,310 18,264 64,#5t4

GERMANY (FED,REP.OF) 862 b62

UNITED KINGDOM 2w100 2J1O00

USA 79 79PUBLICLY ISSUED BONDS 3PO41 3 3w041

USA 8P896 2t866 11,762

Table 4.1: E)XTERNAL PUBLIC DEST OUTSTANEING AS OF DECEMBER 31#1972

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN T1OUSANDS Of U.S. DOLLARS PAGE 2

DEBT OUTSTANDING DECEMBER 31.1972TYPE OF OFFICIAL LENDING

CREDITOR COUNTRY UNDIS'TYPE OF CREDITOR DISBURSED BURSED TOTAL

PRIvATELY PLACED BONDS 8#896 2.866 11,762

FRANCE 1.545 8(7 2J352

SPAIN 100 227 327

USA 2P212 7J423 9.f635

MULTIPLE LENDERS 1.200 3P638 4.838OTHER PRIVATE FINANCIAL INST4 5,057 12,095 17.152

CORP*ANDINA FOME* 1,244 718 1.962

IBRD 34J294 9.198 43.492

IDA 11.799 20.320 32.119

IOB 35.644 10528 46.172LOANS FROM INTL# ORGANIZATIONS 82.981 40.764 123P745

CANADA 3.077 9,807 12P884

COLOMBIA 63 83

CZECHOSLOVAKIA 859 3.157 4.16

GERMANY (EAST) 17- 176

GERMANY (FEDsREP*OF) 7P'62b 4.164 11792

HUNGARY 1.007 - 1.007

HEXICO 50 50

POLAND 2.667 ' 2,667

UNITED KINGOUM 2.051 86 2.137A. I.D. 66,572 31.384 97.956

Table .1: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING AS OF DECEMBER 31#1972

FOR LOANS ISSUED DURING THE PERIOD JANUARY 1 1900 ' DECEMBER 31,1972DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS

PAG3 3

DEBT OUTSTANDING DECEMBER 31#1972TYPE OF OFFICIAL LENDING

CREDITOR COUNTRY UNDIS'TYPE OF CREDITOR DISBURSED BURSED TOTAL

EXPORT IMPORT BANK 7#824 169 7,993USA 74*396 31,553 105A949

LOANS FROM GOVERNMENTS 91'996 4Bf76T 140oT63

TOTAL EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT 1) 304,173 162.191 466.364

NOTEI DEBT WITH A MATURITY OF OVER ONE YEAR

1) EXCLUDES THE FOLLOWINGI AMOUNT

UNCOMMITTED PARTS OF FRAME AGRMTS.

POLAND 2.I52LOANS FROM GOVERNMENTS 2.152

TOTAL 2.152

INTEREST IN ARREARSI

SPAIN 329SUPPLIERS 329

TOTAL 329

INCLUDES PRINCIPAL IN ARREARSI

FRANCE 77

SPAIN 144.SUPPLIERS 221

FRANCE 453PRIVATE BANKS 453

TOTAL 674

ECoNOmiC AND SOIAL DATA DIVISIONECONOMC ANALYSIS & PROJECTIONS DEPARTT

OCTOBER 29, 1973

19/Ol/73

Table 4t.2: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEIST AS OF DECEMBER 31P%972

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS

TOTAL PAGE 1

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANsACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL-

LATIONS.DISBURSED INCLUDING CODMIT' DISBURSE- SERVICE PAYIENTS ADJuST-

YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS(1) (2) (3) (4) (5(6) (7) te)

1965 94,441 192*319 15*080 21,311 8,671 4sO14 12*685 13P4421966 106,830 195p286 44,529 240869 9s316 4,085 13,401 -1,1511967 122P223 229'348 51,916 32,925 9J,166 5,375 14,561 -9v7D-1968 145,676 262,296 47*065 43,574 13#293 6,465 19,761 -24B1969 17'5827 296,620 1351!5 25J713 14,498 7,089 21,587 ,216197(j 187,526 295,421 76,730 4 2373 16,270 7,246 23'516 4Al33;

1971 213,359 351*,5O 75P225 40*453 24J829 8,056 32'335 1*3931972 230,970 403,339 lllod93 99A314 26,685 10,773 37,458 -22,657

1973 303,499 465,690 - 74,661 jdp4tl 15,615 54*066 5'3991974 342P773 432,617 - 368368 39,599 16P775 56*374 -

1975 341,542 393pu19 ' 22,710 42,903 15,983 58*8371976 321,349 350*115 - 13J327 44,70U9 1402,I4 58a953,1977 289,967 305k408 - 7,006 44r546 118b71 56,41, -

1978 252,427 260*861 - 5,621 38J129 9,465 47,5124 -

1979 219,918 222p732 9 1*999 28e379 7,547 35,9271980 193,538 194,354 - 614 17,490 6,037 23,528

1981 176*662 176,864 - 200 .2,662 5,187 17,,t549

1982 164P200 164*2u1 - ^ 127677 4792 17/559

1983 151 433 151#435 - _ 12P553 4.0 15 16,7A31984 138,880 138*o81 - .1,553 3P681 15*291985 127,322 127,323 - 10,895 3^175 lt069 -

1986 116,427 116P429 ' ' 1O,179 2*714 12*893

1987 106,248 106,249 - - 0,4b0 2,310 10*79019B8 97,768 97}769 I - 7*159 i2g97 9r15619d9 '0*J609 9U.,11 -' 5,:901 i*762 7/664

1990 64,708 04J7U9 - A A,868 1* 94 6*462 61991 799540 79'01 -I 5o070 1*4 57 65371992 74,770 74,771 '5*213 1*433 6*646

!IG'T.,: DEBT 1ITH A '4APrIuTY OF- oV7R o YEA . NCLLTD3S SFRRICE ON ALL D7i3r LISTED ON TABLS 1,P?.,8A P<'D O^7l!5> 3 _,, 1973. . .'.YN TM 712 I .r 5u?1 -5? i6 ~L!61< -! VALD;T T

I.,5..$17.9 ILTCJ.LI.

- able ! .2: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DE6T AS OF DECEMBER 31.1972

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS

SUPPLIER5 PAGE 2

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL

LATIONSPDISBURSED INCLUDING CoMMIT VIS8URSE SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUST*

YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS(1) (2) (3) (4) 55? (6) (7) (8)

1965 7,063 15'593 6'*635 5J104 3,621 349 3J9701966 b.547 16s606i 13e671 2#198 3.329 31t 3.647 -3771967 7.415 2 d573 38'5 o e .50 2, 135 8 47 2J982 2 86 11 9 6 1 3'3730 6 2 ' 1 5 6 2 0 3 7 22 P 347 5JO' 4 9 1J341 6,. 3 9 0 31969 31o031 %. ' 4.t 3T 80Y 8.P689 3,943 1I749 5 692 831970 36p399 82.U98 35 146 22*351 5J,15 1.692 7 .407 71 81 971 52p657 11lJt 3 ij7o6 14J344 10 6 8 1,7 67 12.f385 1 7561972 5 7800 134.197 4>720 20.283 12.191 2.234 14,425 21 620

1 97 3 65 fi671 I0 5. 16 - 2 4.00o 16 . 991 4.453 21.444 2t5251974 74,434 90'640 . 1AI750 17,461 4,681 22 v1421 9 7 5 67 7 2 3 73. 1 79 4. I|Q 1 17 330 4J,0 7 2 1 1 1i197b 54, 5j1 55s 49 1346 13,9 23 3.2326 17.161977 41.924 4 1. 92 6 1 2,995 2.422 i534171978 28,P929 2b.*931 a 22.556 1.591 14.1431979 16 373 1 6'37': 7 2 45939 5 61.04 69P. 24 -19 9 11.4961 l, 9 a 4,4 53 _ 5 5 I ;91981 69.9 .5 1 9053 -e 1 2 24 4 73 i 6 ^1 9Q2 5a 7 5 7 5 9D A 8 6 2 3 91 1 . 2 5 31983 495 r u62 327 1.139l9B'4 4.0i()33 1az;o/+ - 6 862 263 1s1i2519A5 3r 17 3 3. 1 _ $;0601 9 6 7,3ui 328 1(5 U531987 2rC01 :(0 3 308 123 331 989 1.69 7 3 ua 1 0 5 41 31989 1.385 Os, 308) 85 3931 S 9 9 1 J or 7 3 5 3 7 31991 6 7 3 c 8 45 z531 9 9 2 4 , . 3 3

Table 1.12: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT AS OF DECEMBER 31P1972

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS

PRIVATE BANKS PAGE 3

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCELO

LATIONSPDISBURSED INCLUDING COMMITO DISBURSE SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUST"

YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

1965 3,276 3,978 - 700 923 239 10162 mI1966 3.O54 3'054 50U 500 873 171 10044 W1

1967 2J680 2,p680 4s336 146 1,024 217 1P2411968 1'802 5,994 2053U 2P152 775 331 1'106 131969 3'181 7,762 865 307 1 f180 285 1.465 -235197Q 2,306 7#232 6*000 1'143 705 166 891 -1,7991971 2J745 1J,726 r5 16 343 b47 26 3 1J130 3271972 2,#272 11o726 53'65U 44D650 612 1,696 2#308 '443

1973 45,857 64 121 2 11'833 3*106 3A469 6'575 5471974 54'645 61 561 3 a 8 4,1 004 3o6b5 7'690 -

1975 54,521 57,557 - 2P475 6,449 3,639 12,25451976 46,547 49,108 - 561 12,893 3p222 16,1151977 36,215 36J215 - . 12*707 2,370 150077 -

1976 23,506 23p508 a 9,294 1*563 10'8571979 14s214 14P214 - 9,294 922 10,216 w198U 4, 921 4'921 a 405 432 837 -

19b1 4,516 44,516 a 405 396 801 1962 4*111 4rlll a - 222 36U 5821963 3,o89 3,889 ' ' 222 34U 562 a

1984 3,667 3,667 a a 222 320 543 a

1985 3,4444 3P444 ' a 222 301 523 a1986 3J222 3J222 , 222 281 503 a

1967 30)00 300ou - a 222 261 484198d 2,776 2,718 . 222 242 4641989 2,556 2'556 - - 222 222 444199' 2.033 2P333 - a 222 202 4241991 2;lll 2,111' 222 182 4051992 1,t.b9 1. t9 222 163 3 55

1Q/Oi'7~

Ta-.ble 1..2: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DE4T AS OF DECEMBER 31519T2

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURhENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF UcSa DOLLARS

PUBLICLY ISSUED BONDS PAG; E

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL

LATIONS.DISBURSED INCLUOING COMMIT- DISBURSE- SERVICE PAYM£NTS ADJUST-

YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIhAL INTEREST TOTAL MENlS(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

1965 4,829 4, 29 - a 155 144 299 1231966 4,551 4 551 a 162 137 299 1621967 4t227 4 227 - - 170 124 294 lI 1968 3P875 3i-675 a 178 101 279 "1231969 3, 574 3,,574 - - d2 85 267 f1421970 3P250 3'250 1'429 1,429 192 75 267 1i581971 4,329 4,329 9C09 19 928 171972 3,'403 3 '4U3 1'195 25 244 95 3 39 3 3

197i 3PO41 3,Q41 a 1P216 147 1P363 1221914 1,947 1P947 - ' 236 56 292 1 97 5 1,J 7 1 1 1*7 e 24 3 4 9 2 921976 1 fi46 6 I466 - a 251 42 292 °1977 1o217 1,217 258 34 292 -

197B 959 959 a * 250 27 277 71979 709 7U9 - a 256 19 276190 4 52 452 2 ' 24 1k 2761981 198 1& 1. I8 l 4 1.2 21 982 a -1 9 8 31 9 d 4

1 9 6 S*-_eb,,1983 a a - S - a -

1984S 5-a

1985 - - a a - a 1 9 5 4S - a O = - 5

19 S O a a a 8

i 9 ;) 9 7;19 9 5 S .

10/01/73

Table L.2: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEbT AS OF DECEMBER 31J1972

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U.Se DOLLARS

PRIVATELY PLACED BONDS PACrE 5

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL

LATIONSoDISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- SERVICE PAYHENTS ADJUST;

YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (T) (8)

1971 1 1935 - - -

1972 9110935 ' 9069 173 15 188

1973 b*896 11J762 ' 2P866 1*640 794 2*434 a

1974 10O*122 1Qp122 1,J640 777 2J4171975 ,*482 8,482 ' 1,o640 646 2J286 -

1976 60842 6*b42 ' 1640 515 2J 1551977 5*202 5*202 ' - 1,446 383 1J8291978 3*756 3P756 - 1;252 275 1J527197v 2,504 2*504 - ' 1*252 175 1*427 -

198i 1*25 2 15 *2252 a - 1J252 75 1S 3 327

10/01/73

EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT AS OF 0ECEMBER 31i1972

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U0S5 OOLLARS

OTHER PRIVATE FINANCIAL INSTo ?-y* 6

OE£T OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGiNNING OF PERIOt CANCEL

LATIQNSPDISBURSED INCLUDING COMMITS DISBURSE" SERVICE PAYMENTS AD4USTb

YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MtENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (T) (8)

1968 6- 6'601 - -

1969 ' 6P601 * 2'200 ' - -

1970 2P200 6A601 1106b 1J555 10755 346 2'1011971 23000 15'914 6'113 2*896 2#906 654 3,590 2401972 b 9 90 19 36i Ip27 6,554 3'487 92 1 ;4 5

1973 5,057 17,152 - 7'694 2#528 644 3*172 53r1974 10,357 15'a161 2P819 2P434 87U 3f3041975 10U742 1'?27 1 ;631 2r43? 05? 3P294 -

1976 9*935 10'290 - 355 2*441 7 46 3r 1B71977 T7849 7sb49 - - 2,445 570 3,P0151978 5P40'Y 5D404 2 2,372 379 2*751 -

1979 3 0 32 3 031 2 1- 1*959 1 82 2 *140198a 1073 1 o7 3 = 636 57 6 93 1 981 437 43 7 49 30 781982 3 b9 - 49 26 75 1983 340 343 * 4 9 23 72 21984 292 ?92 U 49 2( 681985 24 32' 4 9 1 6 65I 9ty fF 6 y/ " s X w 4 9 1 3 611987 1 4 -1 4 49 9 51988 a 9 55 -

19a9 4 9 51 1

10/01/73

Ta'ole 4.2: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT AS OF DECEMBER 3,1 1972

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U*5* DOLLARS

LOANS FROM INTLo ORGANIZATIONSCORPoANDINA FOt4*, PAOX 7

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRAN.ACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL

LATIO.S'DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMITO OI52URSC- SERVICE PAYMENTS AD " T

YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MErTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL(1) C2) (3) (4) (5) (6) ST) Ce)

1971 ' 50Q - - '1972 500 1 462 1*244 4

1973 I,244 1#962 - 237 132 69 2011974 1,349 1,e30 193 215 121 3361975 1,J327 1,615 143 233 115 3471976 1P237 1 3b2 - 92 251 104 3 51 977 1O,77 ]J1 3G - 53 2 72 t7 319 -

1978 859 859 - 193 69 2621979 665 665 0 210 52 2621 950 455 455 a a 243 34 232 ,1981 2U7 207 - ' 207 13 220

LT-1 L.2: EXTERNAL PU8LIC DEBT AS OF DECEMBER 31#1972

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS

LOANS FROM INTL* ORGANIZATIONSIBRD PAGE 8

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL

LATIONSo

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUST'YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

1965 33,648 42,166 2JO59 1,539 10925 30464 3

1966 34,170 40,630 -1638 1,626 1J925 3#551 -21967 34,11 39L002 4PUoU 1,616 1,718 1,918 3P636 -

1966 34,079 41i284 5p300 1813 lel6 1P93L' 3,74S61969 34,076 44,7tb 1,808 2;038 1,994 £4032 -

1970 33,846 42s730 - 2'059 2,21 2025 4P306

1971 33,624 40,449 8bOo 735 2,407 1,990 4,3911972 31,952 460U42 - 4,892 2,550 1P937 4,407

1974 340294 43P492 - 2P359 2P910 2,074 09841974 33,743 40,562 - 2P153 3*075 20053 5#1281975 32P821 37,507 - 174(U 3P495 1,997 5*4921976 31i066 34PU12 * 1 66 3,9983 1J8i80 5J5 631977 28,251 3U,U29 8 823 3,997 1fi709 5,706 -

1976 25,077 26j,32 531 2o325 1*536 3'861 -

1979 23o2b3 23p707 212 2i460 1,414 3,89419bJ 21,*015 21,227 212 2f635 1'271 3906

1981 1.b,592 18,592 2- 26 0 0 1113 3,913 -

1982 15P792 15'792 - - 2,975 937 3J912 -

1983 12,817 12,817 - 3P167 75U 3J91 71964 9v650 9$65U - _ 2A265 566 2'6311985 7'385 7,385 2P2O5 416 2#623 -

1986 5IJ 0 5,180 8 0 2t 1QO 2b1 2*381 -

1987 3;C80 680 .; 0 61 1'311190 12j20 15 93 1J3e31Y9 7 05 7 (,5 7 J05 5 2 8 7 -

1@/O1/?3

Tabl .2: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT AS OF DECEMBER 31,i972

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS CF UeS, COLLARS

LOANS FROM INTL. ORGANIZATIONSIDA A

; n ^ p .~~~~~~?Cr~ 9

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL'

LA T10NDISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT' DISBURSE SERVY^C. PAWIMENTS ADJ'USTa

YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS ;4ENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST T4OTAs ANTS(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

1965 - .0,VO0 - - ' a

1966 ' '0°U - 63 ' -

1967 63 J'00 - 369 - - -

195 432 P u00 5u10 1'492 - 32 32 -

1969 1,924 130100 * 1.774 $1 61 -

197V 3,696 13'0o0 11JSOU 2J143 - -

1971 5,841 2q,6VO * 2,J024 43 431972 7'865 24z'6UO 6 8UV 3,215 - 74 74 719

1973 11 799 32,119 - 4,,495 _ 7? 791974 16 294 32 1 19 4112 43 103 1461975 2VU3C3 3;0u76 3,337 6 126 211 -

1976 23,614 31J990 2,*!- )G 642 2251977 26,37 31 9U4 _ 2917 M6 156 2421976 2 4 43 31,19 7 1725 112 c01 9 79 3 0< O 5 3 3 1 F u U7 1 ;0 2 3 7 17 7 3 1 4190 30O.96d 3 15 )I 402 S 53 33419b1 31,217 31,417 2Q53 1 3 4361962 41,164 31,164 - - 221 2 33 5541963 30;b42 3u(b42 - - S21 231 552I64 30 5' 1 3U; 21 - - l 7 22- 5i 3 11 4 3U; L14

1? 2' Y6 C2 1 29,621 2-9 e 21 7 1 4IY97 e9 12 b 29,128 4 - Yi3 21 7 10

909 2j,S36 2b;o36 - 21 75 62 b J ,i 9 1 2 bJu9. 5 295 2 1 a

l i, i) c! 7,.46 92 . 7 r ;' ' - _- ,v0 I Y 2 6.

r 1-

100l1/73

Table _2: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEST AS 0F DECEMBER 31D1972

DEBT REPAYALLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U#S. DOLLARS

LOANS FROM INTL. ORGANIZATIONSIDB PAGE 10

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING UF PERIOD CANCELO

LATIONS,DISBURSED INCLUDING CUMMIT DISBURSE SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUST

YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED mENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS(1I) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

1965 6.959 39.637 _ 7.915 279 297 576 2.0091966 14,594 37,349 3SCOu 9.496 678 505 1.163 -1967 23.414 39.671 2Z5ou 5.508 1 171 764 1.935 -1966 271751 41.000 2.000 6,797 1P436 948 2P3841969 33.lll 41.560 - 3,901 1.556 1.096 2P662 3101970 35.426 39P664 4.#50u 1.607 6 77 17247 3o034 2.0"2 31971 35,241 400357 196 3.289 2.252 1.370 3.6221972 36.283 38p30Q 10.00 1.494 2.131 1,324 3,455

1973 35P644 46.172 2.687 2.6b5 '1364 402691974 35.646 43.267 _ 2J741 3.146 1P46 5 40611 -1975 35.J241 4.l41 1.J7.00 2.J 58 1.,498 4.356 1976 34.0d3 37.2b3 1. 3ou 2.)218 1,96 3P7161977 33.165 35.u65 1U00O 3 127 1,475 4.-603197a 31,037 331.937 701J 3p127 1I377 4 ; 5)41;79 28,J610 28J10 -O 2O 3J127 1.251 4 J3Tr1960 25.663 25,663 - 3.127 1.100 4.2271981 22,556 22.556 3.9127 942 4.O691982 1Y,426 19.J426 - 3127 74 3.9a11983 16,301 16.30U1 2, 719 631 303 531984 13.5482 132562 ° 2,432 492 2.9251985 11.150 11.150 - I 2.100 381 2,48 I19 6 9,049 9.049 - - 2.039 278 2P367 -

1987 6.961 6P961 ' 1,905 177 2.082196 a5.56 5.6956 9 e 6 95 1 0 9' 134 5 9 D2

#E~~ ~ - 9 42 i)t9' 9.. &)a: if > 2 iv6;+9aJ W w f ?5 ls.8 7F' ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~qC; \~~~~~~~ ~~~ 2 f<5fiv1- tw<i '''

IQ*"Q1/73

_-1 -. : EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT AS OF DECEMBER 31e.972

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF UoS. DOLLARS

LOANS FROM INTL. ORGANIZATIONS

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIOD PA'3 llBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL'

LATION.SPDISBURSED INCLUDING COMNMT- DISBURSEO SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJU$T*

YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MAENTS M[N TS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL la s(I) (2) 3) (4) (5) (6) (7) )"

1965 4 0,607 8g90od _ 94974 1oa18 2'222 4p040 -2,0061966 4do T64 85b979 3#000 11199 2 3O4 2'b43Q 4:734 21967 579656 86,673 6r500 7,493 2:e89 2o682 5,0T1 a1968 62o262 9LI,284 1 2.40 10.II02 3'252 2'91U 6'12 41969 69p111 99,428 - 7 483 3s624 30't51 6'175 3401970 72J970 95,494 16:U0 5,89 4P068 38272 7,o3U0 -2,0?0G1971 740712 105R406 8,696 6P048 4&,59 3,403 b'O52 .11972 76IU0O 109P442 1'2 6;b 10Af845 4r661 3,335 b)01 6 722

1973 8 2'9d1 123P745 - 9 b97w 5/927 3J606 9:533 31974 87:032 117Abl b 9: 199 6,4 80 31742 1 o221 I1975 89:752 111,339 - 6p920 6,o672 3,735 10:4071976 9)0:000 104,667 - 5P410 6:538 3,624 10:162 -

1977 bb8:8T2 9bP129 '4+013 7o482 3,428 1O:910 -

1 9 7 8 b5' 03 90 647 2J966 5, 757 3D 1 51 a u 9 31979 d2:612 84ob9Q - 1464 5s 955 2 3693 8r841980 7bs121 7tl,93 5 6 14 6:163 2,586 6 7501981 72:572 72J772 200 ,8 8 2:251 8Jg38 -

19b2 o6,384 66z364 - - 65423 je954 t:3781963 59P961 59:961 - 62207 1I612 7:819'; 964 53,753 53:153 - - 51 04 1P287 6:3 1 I1985 4b,649 46P649 " ':798 1 0U24 5' 22 -

1986 43j,651 43ffio5l 4 " zj.'681 7u1V 5,462 41987 39A169 39 169 _ , 3;k b 555 4 I03I988 35:621 35:621 ' 2t765 402 3:167195' 3 P:5 6 3285 6 , 2168 307 2:4751 9 9 u 0 6 "u'i; 5 6t 2 57 1 t 6 2 319 1 29 322 298322 4 ° 0 6

' s 9 2 27 > ff 7! 5 ) 7, r''A_ 27 ~ " s J 7u? A 21 ; '923 -

EXTERNAL PUBLIC DE&T AS OF DECEMBER 391972

DEBT REPAYABLL IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUlSAND5 OF UoS. DOLLARS

LOANS FRUaM CVERtNMENTSC -<5 A ~-' DA .Q

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRAhsACTIcN DOURING -RIJODBEGINNING OF PERIbOD CtNCELft

LAT ION SiDISBURSED INCLUDING CDMVIT- DSB SEo SERVICE PAYMENTS AD ,'tm

YEAFR CNL r UNDISBUR5ED 4ENT s N; 75 P RINC!PAL 1T ER E S T TOTAL XST s

1960 - 1,J I t ' -

1967 I J1 6 6 - - 1' 14196 - ls lb6 ' 536 - 14 16 1969 536 1'166 9 45( - 15 15 -1970 993 1s166 e 104 i-6

97; 11 66 1 24 7 957 7 23 23 .1719T7 22 1 32 4 0 45 P8 3 J' 945 - 52 5 2 1

1973 3,5j77 12 od4 3 )0 8 93 9,3 t 19 4 6s1 75 1 20 -60 2-27m 13 7 u.319W 7 5 Z A 4 6 1 2?s 9 6 u 1 737 3 1 2 e 19 iuJy 199O 1o 2 6 7 1 6 i 4 51977 119435 12ti9>5 711l 31 147 17 519R76d 122!15 12'9i4. 623 31 152 4 71979 t?3 d1 1521 9 di ji 2, e 5 4 1 2 b54 ,1 45 1 -

1901 12'i22 *22.z22' 1'0;'' 12 25 ;9 2 1 2, 72 1'7i 3 20 1 5 4 7 31953 12''U) 2 iU 2 3 2 ki 4320 119k 2 465 =19d5 1 I7r.? ' .iS -3 t:i

9 , :3 0<,,<V

iJd 21>'J2 i . 3

2~~~2

;: - S .] .t .& ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ '1'

log/O/T3

EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT AS OF DECEMBER 3121972

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREICN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF UsSo DOLLARS

LOANS FROM GOVERNMENTSCOLOMBIA PAGZ 13

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL-

LATI ON SDISBURSED INCLUDING COMHITO DISBURSE SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUST7

YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL HENTS(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

1965 543 543 - 38 24 62 a1131966 392 392 - - 25 16 41 -

1 967 367 367 , 25 15 40 W261968 316 316 - - 45 18 63 91969 262 262 44 10 54 -51970 213 213 - 42 9 51 .51971 166 166 _ 42 6 48 -

1972 124 124 ' 41 5 46j "

19 7 63 63 a - 46 3 49 '61974 31 31 - - 31 1 32

1¢/O1/73

EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEaT AS OF ODCEMBLR 31P 972

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THousANDs OF UoSe DOLLARS

LOANS FRl?M GOV5RNM7NTSCZECHOSLOVAKIA

DEBT QUTSTANDINI TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL

DISBURSED INCLUDING CCHMIT" DISBURSEL SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUSTYEAR ONL'Y UNDIS8URSED MLNTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST tOTAL MiENTS

(1) (2) (3) (4; cSi) (6S) (7) (5)

1 9 6 7 500 u C -_ _

9U - 5'.u u -

196' 5:000 621 - ' -

196i 621 5,U00 - 209 212'197 u 412 4 '791 I 1:202 1b2 83 265 1971 1,432 4pt'u9 297 172 469I977 1'1 I3 4,1p! 12 2196 14, 4

197j 7 59 '!Vi6 - 2:457 2 67 7 7 1 2-741947 639 17 09 o 704 3i339 1( 137,55

10/01/73

TabiG L.: 'EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEbT AS OF DECEMBER 31o1972

DEBT RLPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THoUSANDS OF U.So DOLLARS

LOANS FROM GOVERNMENTSGERMANY (EAST) ?AGZ 1L

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL'

LA TI I ONDISBURSED INCLUDING CUMMIT' DISBURSE- SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUST

YEAR ONLY UNDISEURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

1971 - ' 223 223 1 1 -

1972 222 222 - 44 17 61

1973 178 16 -- 41 13 54 -1974 137 137 - - 44 1Q 54 -1975 Y3 93 - - 48 6 541976 45 45- - 45 3 48

191011?3

Table 14.2: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT AS OF DECEMBER 31*1972

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U.S# DOLLARS

LOANS FRO14 GOVERNMENTSGERMANY (FEDeRE?*OF) PAGE 16

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL

LATIONS.DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSEO SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUST'

YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL mENTSC) O(2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

1966 ' 4.2U9 ' -1967' 4*209 83 ' 5 5 21968 83 4*211 45 - ' - -21969 126 4*209 2-186 679 ' 22 22 39'1970 816 6 786 - 1#509 S 33 33 -1971 2*325 6p786 3#785 3J735 - 134 134 1e2211972 6J6t1 11.792 - 957 223 223

1973 7*628 112792 - 1*733 ' 36U 360 1 702997'4 1U.512 1.4J94 _ 1I27 ' 406 4061977 11.791 13,494 8 853 189 435 6241976 12*454 13*3U5 - 853 463 450 9131977 12.*b44 12.644 - 736 440 1*1761978 12,10U 12*108 - ' 736 413 1J1491979} 11*372 11J372 - 736 387 1.l2219tu 10P636 10*636 - 736 360 to095196 i 9,901 V.901 U r 736 333 1.069 -

1962 9.165 V.165 - 736 306 1#04219 8i 6,429 6*429 ' 736 279 1.0151984 1*693 7*693 - ' 736 253 9B8 -

19b5 6.956 6*958 3 76 226 961198 6.222 6P222 - ' 736 199 935 51987 5 486 5.4b86 0 736 172 9 0 -1968 4fi.75U 4t'50 - 736 145 881 19J9 4'015 4*v15 - * 7 3 6 jib 854

3P279 3;79 - 546 94 6'.1!991 2*733 2 733 5 76 62; 2

4 Avc 2 J i S., z 166 - " 5 4 be £'j=. w

IP/01/73

Table 4Table 4.2: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT AS OF DECEMBER 31.4972

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS

LOANS FROM GOVERNMENTSHUNGARY PAGE 17

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCELO

LATIONS3DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT DISBURSE- SERVICE PAYMENTS AOJUS7I

YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS(1l) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

1970 - -i481 '1971 1'481 ' 1'281 90 15 I05 51972 1,191 1*391 ' 200 384 384 -

1973 1,0u7 1 uo7 ' ' 126 68 194 -1974 bd1 8b1 ' 126 59 185 -

1975 755 755 126 51 17? -1976 629 629 - - 126 42 1681 977 504 504 2 1 2( 33 1591978 378 378 - 126 24 1501979 252 252 - - 126 15 1411980 126 126 ' - 126 7 1i2 2

19/O1/T3

EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT AS OF DECEMBER 31se1972

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSAND$ OF U.S. DOLLARS

LOANS FROM GOVEUNMENT5;AEXICG AO1~~4E~~~~(1CO ~~~~~FA1E le,

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIoNS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOU CANCELO

LATIONSDDISBURSED INCLUDING COmMiTo DISBURSE- SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUST-

YEAR ONLy UNDISBuRSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENT5(X) ~~~~(2) (3) (4a t5) (6t (7) t6)

1967 - 5 0 - -1966 a 500 500 50 16 661969 450 450 150 1 1 6 a

1970 300 300 - - 100 108 _1971 200 200 - 04 11 115 41 972 1000 I0 48 1

1973 50 5u - 50 2 52

19/01/73

Table 1, .2: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEST AS OF DECEMBER 31#1972

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS

LOANS FROM GOVERNHMENTSNETHERLANDS PAGE 19

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACT'IONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL'

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUST&YEAR ONLY UNDIsBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL HENTS

(l) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (6)

196b - 497 . . _19b9 - 497 ; _ . . a _

1970 - 497 4 . . _1971 - 497 7 -' 971 972 - _ _

/ Ol/ 73

EXTERNAL PUBLIC DENT AS OF DECEMBER 31 1972

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U*S. DOLLARS

LOANS FROM GOVERNMENTSPOLAND

PAGE 20DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIOD

BEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCELOLATIONSD

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSES SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUSTYEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

1966 800 a - - a

1969 - ot0 2pd4d 800 205 205 -1970 595 3,443 - - 22 4 261971 573 3P421 - 2,84d 383 25 4081972 3s03d 3ou38 - - 371 71 442 -

1973 2,667 2 667 _473 157 6301974 2' 194 2'194 - 473 128 6011975 1,721 1,721 - - 473 98 5 71 197b68 ,24 1I24- 405 68 473 a

1977 843 b43 - - 337 46 3831 97d 5U6 506 a . 337 25 363 -1979 169 169 - 169 5 174 a

1i1O1/?3

Table 4.2: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEOT AS OF DECEMBER 31#1972

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THouSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS

LOANS FROM GOVERNMENTSUNITED KINGDOM ?AC7E 21

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL-

LATIONS,DISBURSED INCLUDING CUMMIT DISBURSE- SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUST;

YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENqTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL HENTSCl) (2) (3) (4) (5) S6) C?) (8)

1966 - - 1,68U 325 ' ' '1967 325 1;6d0" 371 - 42 42 2401968 619 1.P440 U 514 - 50 501969 1,133 1,440 492 185 * 62 62 0

1970 1,318 1,932 - 122 79 791971 1,440 1J932 73b 253 93 110 203 03291972 1J733 2P246 - 427 10Y 112 221 a

1973 2,051 2,137 82 52 119 172 01051974 1,980 -9bU - 62 119 181 -1975 1,9 1 1 l 9 1 65 115 1501976 1;853 1 d53 - 0 69 111 181 -

1977 17e,4 I,704 * 74 107 131 "1978 1,710 1710 p 7 77 103 180 -

1979 1,633 1J633 - 74 98 172 -

19d6 1J558 1,558 ' 77 94 1J11981 1,481 1,461 74 89 1631982 1,407 ,407 - - 7t 84 161-1983 1,330 1330 0 _ 74 80 1541984 1,256 1J256 * 0 77 75 1521985 1,179 1I79 - 74 71 1451986 1,1o5 1,lU5 - 77 66 143 0

1987 1,02d 1 P02 -2 74 62 136 -198B 954 954 o - 77 57 1341989 877 b77 - a 74 53 127 -

1990J 8U2 b02 - - 77 : 125 i991 725 725 7- 4 44 0

1992 651 5 - 77 39

1R/O1/73

Table 4t.2: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT AS OF DECEMBER 3l 19T2

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS

LOANS FROM GOVERNMENTSUSAA.I .D.:

PAGE 22DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL"

LAT IONS,DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE SERVICE PAYMENTS AOJUSTOYEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED hENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL 4ENTS(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)1965 26'228 56'390 2#145 5J228 129 587 716 -101991966 31J312 57,207 15P303 9'546 635 57Y 1'214 -6111967 40,226 71,264 2'O0U 9r957 996 985 1J981 '3J175196a 49J187 69'093 - 4pb81 1,038 965 2J0O3 a1251969 52'631 6T793U 3p295 3P437 1,898 1,030 2,92e I1970 54#371 69s328 5#606 6#871 1,280 959 2o239 a1971 59,962 73P654 5,750 7'512 2,267 9a7 3,254 -9561972 65,207 76'161 23J95U 3J536 2J171 1r251 3J422'4

1973 66'572 97J956 - 10s759 2i311 1,194 3P505 -1974 75,020 95J645 7 70431 4P113 1J553 5'6661975 76,336 91'532 - 4P987 4,500 1J639 6.139 -1976 78r825 67'032 - 3J535 4J923 1J784 6*7081977 77,436 82'108 2,o283 4J933 1s6B6 6,622 -197d 74J786 77l175 - 2'032 4J384 1,614 5J996 91979 72,434 72'791 351 3,295 1l511 4a806 619d0 69,495 69#495 - - 3rO54 1s440 4,4941961 66i442 66P442 ' 3,205 1i389 4P5931952 63,237 63,237 P 37b4 1,464 5J246 1983 59J453 595453 3,O69 1,369 5 15B196't 55,664 55P664 - 3,694 1296 5w193 -1985 51i770 51 770 3- 3:6 87 1o1 94 4,v 881196( 46,6U3 48b,83 _ , 3,7b6 1:092 4,#8791987 44,296 44P296 - 3r223 992 40215 -i9dd 410U73 41:Q73 2:662 911 31392 -1989 36:391 3 b:31 2:-)25 85" 2-875 71 99 u J36 37 3 p367 2 2029 bC5 2 34'991 344J28 34,33 3 _ 203 760 2.e793 -I999 3Ž: 30vt 32 :_ 35,. - 2 09 2 P

1iP/O1/?3

!ol. .2: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT AS OF DECEMBER 31D19T2

DEST REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U&.S DOLLARS

LOANS FRUM GOVERNMENTSUSA

EXPORT - DThZORT B9,!

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIOD PAGE 23BEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCELM

LATIONSiDISBURSED INCLUDING CUMMITO DISBURSEO SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUST-

YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS HENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREWT TOTAL MENTS(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (T) (8)

1965 11,893 21,183 6,3U 305 1,967 449 2'436 311966 10,210 25S495 1,'101 1.96s 434 2s422 21967 9,325 23p5U9 6 6 425 1P94 7 444 2*391 3., 30119 6 13d8U2 1d,261 2 *v076 2,906 722 3.623 2i196Y 1i,971 15J354 1 476 30 63 659 3'722 '11 97u 11-3d3 12 290 - 27 2 2U9 464 2of6 93 -2521971 9.452 9*629 109 a 5 1 613 417 2L030 -3721972 7d644 9Slr24 1*I le831 563 2A414

197 7*824 7,993 129 1*286 421 1,707 -

i97 4 6667 6,70? - 4 11 5 6 356 1*5161 975 5,549 5,549 ' 732 29d 1*0 301976 4861 6 4*618 I 0 976 26U 12361 971 3,842 3,642 - 976 203 1* 178 1976 2,866 2 666 - 0 957 147 I1041979 1,909 1909 - 294 101 395 -198a0 l,616 1 616 29'; 65 3791961 1 d3 I 1 322 I 322 2 94 69 362 21962 1, 026 1,U26 - 0 294 53 346193b 734 134 - - 2?4 36 33019d4 441 441 - 294 21 314 0

i96 15 147 - 14?7 4 51 0

IQ/Q1/73

,' EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT AS OF OECEV.6ER 31D197 2

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U.S# DOLLARS

LOANS FROM GOVERNMENTSUSA

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIOD PAG3 24BEGINNING oF PERIOD CANCEL&

LATIONSPDISBURSEU INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSEO SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUF7-

YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TCTAL M N S(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

1965 3d3121 77,573 $,445 5,533 2P116 1,036 3,:52 -1'2001966 41,522 62P702 15,p3U 10,647 2P623 1.O13 3,636 W6091967 49,551 94,773 2'Q*U 16,f382 2,943 1,42Y 4,372 -6p4761968 62,P89 67.354 a b,757 3#944 1,687 5,631 01261969 65#802 83p2b4 3,;95 4J913 4,961 1^6b9 6J65Q1970 65,754 V 1I 5t606 7p149 3 4b 1J443 4'932 -2521971 69,414 63P483 7073U 7p51! 3e,80 1#404 5#26! A1s3251972 73J051 86,U05 23p95U 5,347 4.0U2 1C34 5,e$6 -4

1973 74,396 105, 949 - 10p688 3,597 1J615 5'212 21974 61,667 102J352 a 7,i471 5,271 l'91 1 U I821975 d3,88 7 97fIi81 a 4,987 5*232 1,937 7A169 1976 d3.642 91,849 * 3,535 5,899 2,045 7J941977 b1,276 65'950 . 2P263 5,9U9 1,891 7s8Qo -

197B 7>7652 dQJU()41 2Ju32 5,341 1J,761 *,1(U21979 74,343 74i7OU * 357 3r589 1J612 5,20 i1987 71J111 17 1 - - 3, 347 1I525 Ao 5721981 67-764 67,764 _ 3,498 1,458 4i9;6 -

19"2 64,265 64,265 - - 4LU 7C 1J517 5,5951963 60, iB8 6e0'18 - - 4;QP3 1 4 05 5 -i&

19b4 56.1Q5 56.16P05 4i-,, 88 1 316 5J5(7 0

1 98 5 W 1 i s e l6 5 1 ,' 9 6 _334 1,193I9O 4 b.()ob3 44O a 3 - - 3,tt766 1U92 91957 44,296 44oi296 - ' 3A223 992 4#2151948 41 0 3 4 1 u73 2 2

319 36 7 r C7 2 ! - 5* i y 1 . 4 ' 3~d 3 4 ,I 3 :_, _ 2

I w2 3 2 5' ,, ( .. ,j

IQ/01/73

Table 4.2: EXTERNAL PUBLIC OEDT AS OF L.-EMBER 31r1972

DEBT REPAYABLL IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS

LOANS FROM GOVERNMENTS

DEBT oUTSTANDING TRANSACTIUNS DURING PERIOD PA13 25BEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL-

LAT IONS,DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUSTO

YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (- )

1965 368664 76P116 6.*445 5P533 2,154 1s060 3,214 -1,3131960 41r914 83,094 27s358 l0r972 2,648 1r029 3'677 '6091967 5u,243 107,195 2p500 16*836 2?968 1,505 4#473 -6,7401966 64,007 99,9b8 1,297 8.973 4,039 1j,75 5'824 -1371969 68,930 97,l08 bpd21 7.034 50569 1,819 7,38X 3e61970 70O401 1U0746 7.ou7 10.086 3>835 1,575 5.510 -1761971 76r716 103ro22 15P255 16r822 4,B90 l9oV 6i.7r0 '9121972 89,405 113,275 32,78C 7.b6d 5r297 2,470 7J767 3

1973 91,996 140,763 - 18,29o 7,063 2.5o2 9.565 1,6681974 104,235 135,368 _ 11P720 7.345 2.763 10,108 -1975 10UP610 128,U23 7,577 6.132 2r771 8.9031976 110,055 121,891 5.-655 7,023 2,858 9pS311977 U1,687 114,869 ' 2s994 7,213 2J664 9Q.77 -1978 104,468 107,656 - 2.655 6,t648 2,47" 9.126 -1979 100475 101,8uu 535 40725 2,271 6r5961980 96,285 96 ,85 - _ 4.317 2,140 6 'b57 71981 91,968 91,968 ' - 4,409 2,034 6* .44219b2 67'559 87P559 - . 5r211 2r06u 7.2711983 82,349 82,349 - _ 5P213 1,913 7.125198 17,136 77,136 - - 5,321 1,791 7662 91985 71,815 71,815 ' - 4,964 1,636 6,59919b6 66,851 66,851 ' - 4,919 1,495 6.41's -1987 61,932 61.932 4 - 4,353 1.359 5P7121988 57P579 5?1579 3 ' 3>14 1,243 5,0571989 b3,765 53P765 ' - 3,154 1,f147 4,3011990 5u,610 5,610 ' - 2,972 1,070 4t042 -

1991 47,638 47p,36 - - 27 1,24 000 349731992 44,665 44,665 - - 2,980 1-024 405

3CT"'OTC A'TD SIOIAL DATA DI11SIOCNt.C8T'IOA NALYSIS & F%9j3CTIONS DSPARCv2MT

OS9.wi. <r, iv73

SUPPL MSMIZT

1Q/01/7 3

Table L.2: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEST AS OF DECEMBER 31.1972

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS

SUPPLIERSBELGIUM

PAg 1

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL'

LAT IONSIDISBURSED INCLUDING CDMMIT- DISBURSE- SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUSTb

YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS(X) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

1965 263 ;63 87 871 966 350 35U - 70 701967 280 zo0 - - 70 o 70 -1968 210 210 70 701969 140 140 e - -1970 1 .0 140 - - U - -1971 140 140 - 140 1401972 -

SUTIPLENENT1s/O1l?3

Table 4.2: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT AS OF DECEMBER 31*1972

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS

SUPPLIERS PAGE 2FRANCE

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCELO

LATIONS,DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUSTO

YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS(1) (2) (3) (4) t5) (6) (7) Ce)

1965 983 3d844 A 1*218 1,049 loO491960 1*152 2*795 307 1*135 386 3861967 1*900 2P715 827 508 271 22 293 -196B 2,137 3,271 4*109 426 61 38 991969 2*502 7J319 2P506 7715 646 36 682 -7811970 2,f387 ,39T 13po7u 2P202 810 160 70 11781971 3o)601 20J460 0 3*982 1*801 .40 109*4. 5321972 bI2I0 19*211 125 3P196 IB62 111 1*973 '77

1973 7,457 17J397 4*901 3P709 646 40357 6081974 9*176 14*296 ' 3*11 3#667 693 4i3601975 8*629 10#629 - 1*500 2,TT7 621 -3*395 -

1976 70356 7^b56 - 500 2,071 524 2*5951977 5*784 5,784 - 1o524 401 1s925 -1978 4p260 4*260 - 524 268 1*8121979 2 r736 2#136 - _ 1*524 175 1 *6991980 1*212 1*;212 - - 1*212 68 1*281

STJPPLE=iT

1lO1/73

Table 4.2: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT AS OF DECEMBER 31#1972

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF UoS. DOLLARS

SUPPLIERSGERMANY (FED*REP*OF) PAG3 3

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CATNC EL'

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE SERVICE PAYMENTS AD4USTYEAR ONLY UNDISBURsED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS

c1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) t7) (8;

1965 437 437 6p350 100 83 3 86 11966 455 6,705 - 713 685 685 .11967 482 6,019 39 5#576 345 529 8741966 5,713 5P713 236 238 371 326 697 11969 5s581 5*581 - 377 174 j 551 5041970 5P708 5s708 ' 417 333 750 91971 5P291 5s291 3'116 - 290 88 378 9091972 5,693 9.026 - 376 537 192 729 -

1973 5i532 8b469 - 1S591 1,919 360 2'2T79 [1921974 5,969 7#762 1P015 2,046 399 2.445 -1975 4J93d 5J716 ' 541 3c128 324 3i452 -

1976 2,351 2,567 . 237 444 177 6211977 2e143 2'143 * - 478 152 630 -1978 1665 loo65 - 515 115 63(1

; 1,150 1,150 * 554 7Q 630 -1960 595 595 595 34 629 -

SUPPL=M3 T

Table- 4.2: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT AS OF DECEMBER 3119T72

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS

SUPPLIERSITALY PAGE; 4

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL.

LATIONS,DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMITm DlSBURSE- SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUSTU

YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL PENTS(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

1967 " 22s29U - - 0 ' 1968 2 22,29U 1*f6y 13#296 2,138 399 2P537 -

1969 11.158 21P921 ' 2#543 192 663 855 3631970 138'872 220U92 bJ(uu 7r407 528 a 528 -1971 2(),751 29,564 2'00(0 4295 3,839 50 .3p689 '4391972 21,314 27,206 - 2P646 3P520 648 4o168 m1

1973 2UP439 23JT65 0 2r126 3p8U5 1P471 5'276 201974 16w760 19.9d0 ' 90u 38P806 1,299 5A105 -1975 15-874 16,174 -300 3o8U5 1P06b 4P8731976 12,366 12,J68 - 3,836 807 4,613 -1977 d85b2 b6562 - a 3,532 541 4PO73 a1978 5s030 5'030 - 30C97 254 3,03511979 1 P933 1 933 - 967 110 1 ̂ 076 -198U 967 967 - - 967 47 1P014 0

SUPPLEIM3NT

Table' 4.2: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT AS OF DECEMBER 31#1972

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS

SUPPLIERSJAPAN

PAGE 5DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIoNS DURING PERIOD

BEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCELLATIDNSi

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT' DISBURSEa SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUSTYEAR ONLY UNOISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

1970 - 431 - '1971 * 431 5'192 * * 6551972 * 6'278 4P595 8,P409 963 20 983 1

1973 7,446 9J911 1,?23 678 520 1*198 7601974 8J974 9,993 825 956 631 41#587 -1975 8P843 9PO36 - 191 956 602 1,5581976 8JO78 8,08O - 864 543 1,40t1977 7P213 t,216 864 481 1J3461978 6i349 6,351 - 864 42U 1#2841979 5,485 5J487 8 * B64 358 1'2221960 4p620 4,623 - 648 296 9441981 3P972 3*974 * a 432 255 6881982 3J541 3P542 ' 308 225 533 a

1983 3J233 3J234 * a 308 205 513 *1984 2,925 2#926 * a 308 185 4931985 2,617 2i618 * a 308 165 4731986 2P309 2P310 ' - 308 145 4531987 2,001 2'002 ' - 308 125 4331968 1,693 1,694 a * 308 105 4131989 1#385 1,386 * 3u8 85 393 a

1990 1,077 1P078 ' - 308 65 373 -1991 769 770 * a 308 45 353 a

1992 461 462 ' a 308 25 333 a

SUPPLEMENT

19/01/73

Table 4.2: EXTERNAL PUBLIC OEBT AS OF DECEMBER 31#1972

DEST REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS

SUPPLIERSMEXICO

PAGE 6DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIOD

BEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCELOLATIONSD

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMITZ DISBURSE SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUSTYEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS

tl) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

1968 6'83', -3 - -

196 9 - o30 6 1I097 34 ' 3° -

1970 1'063 6P796 2oU4V 2*518 430 4301971 3'#151 b8415 1.*03o 790 126 916 0

1972 3*391 76225 - 422 149 571

1973 2*969 7 203 4, 2 234 554 396 9501974 6,649 6P649 0 554 521 1$0751975 6,095 6095 - 554 477 1P0311976 5'541 5,541 554 432 9861977 4,987 4,967 0 554 3b6 942 -

1978 4'433 4P433 0 0 554 344 898 -

1979 3,879 3 i79 ' ' 554 299 9 853 0

1960 3'324 4o324 554 255 8091961 20770 2770 0 554 211 7651982 ko,216 554 166 7201983 1'662 1s662 0 0 554 122 6761984 1,10(8 1i108 0 554 78 632 -

19b5 554 554 554 33 587 -

SUPPL=INT

Table 4.2: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT AS OF DECEMBER 31J1972

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS

SUPPLIERSSPAIN

PAS3 7

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL

LATIONS*DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUST

YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

1967 - - 14J697 - -1968 - 14P697 - 4A5QU 884 - 8841969 3,616 13F813 1'303 2*742 1*71o 413 2'1231970 4,647 13'405 8,00U0 8,005 1i131 678 1'8091971 11521 2U,274 - 753 827 735 1#562 -

1972 11,447 19,447 - 1s989 292 2P261 '144

1973 9,314 17J314 3'760 3,024 539 3#564 -

1974 10.050 14J290 2,40(0 2pB85 579 3o464 -

1975 9,565 11'405 - 1'280 2,566 509 3i0751976 d,278 8Od38 . 560 2,636 394 3:0301977 6,202 6'202 - 2w558 23U 2P788 -1976 3,644 3i644 - 2,762 73 2P835 -

1979 882 862 ' - 353 50 40319du 529 529 - - 353 28 3811981 176 170 - - 176 6 182

SKTPLE.2E N

10/01/73

Table 4.2: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEbT AS OF DECEMBER 3119T2

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF UoS DOLLARS

SUPPLIERSSWEDEN

PAGE 8

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCELU

LAT I ONS#DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT' OISBURSEO SERVICE PAYMENTS AOJUST*

YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

1965 3,064 OP733 i. 3'501 1,093 257 1I3501966 5i472 7oT4u 10*504 350 1#070 316 1386 -3751967 4,753 16J699 - 2J366 10449 296 1#7451968 5,670 15,250 12'091 3'162 1,379 533 1P912 11969 7,454 25w963 - 1,532 839 426 1'265i97u 8,147 25,124 - 2#219 2,254 493 2P7471971 8,112 22ot7O - 3,484 2*785 611 3s3961972 B,911 2UiV65 ' 4J496 2,*600 706 3.306

1973 1IU,707 17P465 ' 4,*735 2;935 374 3P3091974 12,507 14.#550 ' 1'943 2,935 397 3P3321975 11,515 11b615 ' .IOU 2'935 340 3Jo2751976 8b680 8.0,6Q- 2.935 248 3J183 U

1977 50745 5..7745 - ' 2,873 156 3'029 -1978 2P873 2,673 - - 298T3 67 2..939

1Q/0X p3

Table _'.2: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT AS OF DECEMBER 31,1972

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS

SUPPLIERSUNITED KINGDOM PAGE 9

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL

LATIONSoDISBURSED INCLUDING CURM;T- DISBURSE- SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUST-

YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL HENTS(1) (2; (3) (4) (5) (6) C(7) (Z)

1965 2,316 2P316 198 19b 1,396 89 1'46551966 1,11 1J118 ' ' 1e118 2 1'120 -

1 9 6 T

1 968 a ' - - - -196wJ' - a a - -

197U 7 ' 151 ' - S a -

1 971 1 1J 157 ' a a99

1972 1,256 _ 1'0(08 154 66 222 1

197' 655 l'103 176 123 48 171 541974 865 925 ' 60 123 48 171 5

1975 802 802 1 ' 123 42 1661 9 7 6 679 679 . 123 36 1591977 555 555 - ' 123 29 1 521978 432 432 - a 123 22 145 a

1979 308 3U- 123 15 13919 6 185 185 - - ,.23 8 1321981 62 62 ' ' 62 2 63

SUFPp-<7' ?

1Q/001/73

-.1: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT AS OF DECEMBER 31,1c9?2

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF UsS# DOLLARS

SUPPLIERSUSA

PAGS 10

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCELO

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT DISBURSE- SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUSTOYEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL tAELTN

tl) ~~~~(2) t3) (4) (r') ) Tt6

1970 -' 2,439 ' ' 0 0

1971 " 2,439 21s40U boo -1972 800 23,839 - 152 -3 38 -21P400

1973 952 2P439 755 244 96 340'974 1,463 2'195 - 468 486 115 6031975 1,463 1,707 195 4&8 104 592 -1976 1il?1 1J22U - 49 468 76 566 -1977 732 732 - - 4b8 44 532 -

197b 244 244 ' - 244 9 253

rrabi- l > EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEbT AS OF DECEMBER 31S1972

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS

SUPPLIERSVENEZUELA

FAG,S 11DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIOD

BEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL-LATIOQ#S>

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMM; r OISBURSE- SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUST*YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS HENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

1966 - 2#860 )f -1967 ' 2tb 60 725 - -218601 96b - 725 _ 725 146 45 191 11969 560 5UO - 145 37 1821970 435 435 - - 145 28 1731971 290 290 146 17 163 -

1972 144 144 144 1u 154 -

1973 - - _ , , _

lo/01/73

EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT AS OF DECEMEER 31.*1972

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS

PRIVATE BANKSFRANCE PAGE 12

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGIlNNING OF PERIOD CANCELO

LATIONS,DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT' DISBURSE- SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUT'

YEAR ONLY UNhIS8URSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) CT) (8)

1967 - - 2,02b 2 1 968 2J 2e- - - -U 2 -1969 ' 2'U26 6 178 - 16 16 '2261970 178 -26 5 ' 208 10 10 l,8OO1 971 386 65- 309 16 49 65' 972 679 869 - 226 42 268 '643

,SUFPL='T

Tab> I .: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEbT AS OF DECEMBER 31D1972

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U6S. DOLLARS

PRIVATE BANKSITALY PAGE 13

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIDNS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCELN

LAT ION5,,DISBURSED INCLUDING CUMMIT- DISBURSE- SERVICE PAYMENTS ADOUSTF

YEAR ONLY UNOISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) t@)

1971 ' 1,5IU 951972 - 1o613 U U -

1974 - 1J613 - 1'151 183 3 186 301974 968 1I460 U 278 163 112 294 -

1975 1,064 1^278 _ 165 163 110 2921976 1,046 1 u95 0 49 183 98 2811977 913 913 * 163 82 2641976 730 730 ' 163 65 2481979 548 548 ' 183 49 2321960 365 365 1 183 33 215 -'9b1 183 163 ' ' 183 16 199

S LT PLr

EXTERNAL PULLIC DEC AS OF DECEPE;R 31i1972

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF UoSe DOLLARS

PRIVATE 8ANKSNET h ̀lRLAND DS P3

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL'

LAT IOCiSPDISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- IS3UR$SE SrRVICE PAYMENTS AD4LUJ7

YEAR ON LY UNDISURSEO MENTS M£,NJ PRINCIPAL INTERZST TOTAL til;

19 55 23 3 b 6 e 3 6 572 194 76 61Y66 1 813 1 613 ' * 3 lO 64 61967 1J302 1I302 - 51 1 13 b 6 4 -196B 791 791 - ' 511 149 (60 -1969 280 2b0 ' 137 57 24 4197u '93 93 93 2 9 12 21971

1pio1/?3

Iab: d.i: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DE8T AS OF DECEM6OER 3115972

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS

PRIVATE BANKSI TFA-RLAN PAG3 1-

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL'

LATIONSiDIS3URSED INCLUJDING COM4ZIT 0D13.1UJRSE SrRVICE PAYMENTS ADJU3T"

YEAR CNLY UN15OURUSED MvNT6 MENTS pRINCiPAL IT ERES TOTAL ETS(1) (2) (3; (4? (5) t t)

1967 - ' 2,312 146 6 ' -

1963 146 2r312 52 2 11 11 131969 20(0 2s325 - 129 22 30 9197 U 305 2,294 4 5 - 2 2 11 97 1 311 2,P295 ' 34 46 2R 63 2321972 330 2>481 3 U Ou 1'000 40 2A 61

1973 1p2 9 0 5'441 28I 71 1 1 92 109 1l301 5171574 3,031 4P 766 1'005 .pl52! 195 J 3871975 2d344 3p575 G 39 1,192 i7 i3 7 -

197& 2,2v1 2'303 _ 92 1,192 131 1 3231977 1*192 1lo92 - - itl92 59 1P250

Table 4.2: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT AS OF DECEM3ER 31#1972

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U.So DOLLARS

PRIVATE BANKSUSA PAGE 16

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL=

LATIONSDDISBURSED INCLUDING COMMITO DISBURSE- SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUSTO

YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTSC1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

1965 892 lo 592 700 351 45 3961966 1'241 1J241 500 500 363 35 398 -1961 1,378 1,378 - - 513 81 594 -

196d do5 865 2p530 2'100 264 171 435 -

1969 2.701 3,131 - - 971 204 1'1751970 1V730 2'160 6'00o 930 612 145 757 -1971 2,048 7,546 - 785 211 9961972 1s263 6P763 50,650 43,650 346 1.633 1P979

1973 44,567 57,067 7p811 1,732 3,357 5#0891974 50.646 55,335 2V598 2.630 3,579 6.2091975 5U0614 52P705 1,671 7,O75 3P551 1O.6261976 45.210 45.630 420 11,519 2,993 14,5121977 34111 34,111 - 11o333 2.230 13.563 -

1976 22,778 22P778 - _ 9,111 1,498 10J6091979 13,667 13,667 - 9111 8 73 9.984 -

1960 4.#556 4,556 - _ 222 399 6221981 4.333 4,333 ' - 222 38a 602 -1982 4.111 4,111 ' 222 3o0 582 -1983 3p8b9 3.689 * - 222 340 5621984 3,6c,7 3,', - - 222 320 543 -1985 3P444 3,'44 - 222 301 523196o 3.222 3'222 ' - 222 281 5031987 3,0oo 3.UOO - - 222 261 4841986 2,778 2.778 - 222 242 4641959 2,556 2.556 - - 222 222 444 -199U 2.333 2,333 - 222 202 4241991 2.111 2,111 I 222 1a2 405i 9 9 2 1 io 9,69 l,* 1ei~9 - - 222 163 365

STJPPLEM21T

1Q/01/73

Table 4.2: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT AS OF DECEMBER 31*1972,

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U&S. DOLLARS

PUBLICLY ISSUED BONDSGERMANY CFED.REP,OF) PAGE 17

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL

LATIONS*DISBURSED INCLUDING CUMMIT' DISBURSE SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUSTO

YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (a)

1970 - - 1J429 1'429 - ' -

1971 1,429 1F429 - 7u5 705 1381972 862 b62 - - 43 43 m

1973 862 b62 - 986 84 1#4070 124

Table 4j.2: EXTERNAL PUBLIC OE8T AS OF DECEMBE.R 31#1972

DEST REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U.S& DOLLARS

PUBLICLY ISSUEO BONDSUNITED KINGDOM PAGE 18

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING Of PERIOD CANCEL;

LATIONSDISBURSED INCLUDING COMMITU DISBURSE SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUSTU

YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTStl) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) )(^

1965 4 641 4,641 1 143 14U 283 3181966 4,380 4,380 ' - 150 133 283 '1601967 4J07070 '407-- 158 120 278 '1821968 3,730 3,730 1 66 96 264 '1221969 3,f442 3P442 - 169 82 251 '136197o 3,137 3,137 - ' 185 74 259 '1591971 2,793 2,793 ' 190 16 206 '1541972 2,449 2,449 ' ' 207 50 257 -142

1973 2s10o 2 100 ' 215 61 276 21974 18d3 1,883 ' ' 221 55 276 -

1975 1o662 1,662 ' 228 48 2761976 1,0434 1J434 ' ' 235 41 2761977 1,200 0'20 ' 242 34 276 -

1978 956 958 ' 249 27 2761979 709 709 ' 256 19 2761980 452 452 ' ' 264 12 276 -

1981 id8 188 - 188 4 19219821983 - - - - - .1984 ' _ _ , U

19851986 - U . ,1 987 - . _ , ,1 9 B B

1989 ' ' ' ' U U '1990 U - - _ . _ ,1991 - - - U . _ ,1992

STJPPLWIZIT

Table 4.2: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEST AS OF DECEMBER 31£1972

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS

PUBLICLY ISSUED BONDSUSA PAGE 19

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCELO

LATIONS,DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT* DISBURSE' SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUST-

YEAR ONLY UNDIS8URSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTScl) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) C7) CS)

1965 168 188 - 12 4 16 051966 171 171 ' - 12 4 16 021967 157 157 - - 12 4 161968 145 145 - - 12 3 151969 132 132 - 13 3 16 '61970 113 113 ' 7 1 a 11971 107 107 ' - 14 3. 171972 92 92 1'195 25 37 2 39 a1#171

1973 79 79 - 15 ..2 It1974 64 64 ' 15 1 171975 49 49 ' 16 1 171976 33 33 ' - 16 1 IT -

1977 17 17 ' - 16 ' 161978 1 1 . - 1 1 11979 - a . a ,1980 - a ' a a1981198219831984 - a a . a a .1985 ' ' ' ' a ' '1986 a1987 a . a a1988 8 ' ' a

1989 - a a - a a '1990 - -1991 - a a . a a a1992

SUPPLEMBT

10/01/73

Table 4.2: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT AS OF DECEMBER 31JI972

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. OOLLARS

PRIVATELY PLACED BONDSUSA PAGE 20

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL'

LATIONS,DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT DISBURSE SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUST'

YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL 14ENTS(1) (2) (3) (4) C5) (6) (7) (8)

1971 11.935 - a a a a

1972 1 11.J 35 9J069 173 15 188 a

19173 8P896 11.762 2'866 1#640 794 2.4341974 10.122 10.122 ' - 1#640 777 2P4171975 8P482 6P462 1,640 646 2P286 -1976 6.842 6.642 ' 1640 515 2J1551977 5P202 5P202 ' a 1,446 383 1.829 a1978 3J.756 3.*756 a a 1*252 275 1D5271979 2p5(4 2.P504 a a 1.252 175 1,427 1980 1 J252 1P252 a - 1,252 75 1.327

SUPPLM4El4T

Thble 4.2: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT AS OF DECEMBER 3119 7-2

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS

OTHER PRIVATE FINANCIAL INST.FRANCE PAGE 21

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCELS

LATIONSiDISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT' DISBURSE SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUSTO

YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED. MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) t) (O)

1971 ' 2,466 - -'1972 ' 2#466 1',659 114 10 124

1973 1,.545 2,352 461 420 110 5301974 1P586 1J932 ' 247 322 120 4421975 1,511 1P610 * 99 322 109 4311976 1,288 1P288 * 322 90 4121977 966 966 ' a-322 68 3901978 644 644 . , 322 45 3671979 322 322 ' 322 11 333

SUPPLEI3NT

Table 4.2: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT AS OF DECEMBER 31#1972

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS

OTHER PRIVATE FINANCIAL INST.SPAIN PAGE 22

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL'

LATIONSoDISBURSED IN4LUDING COMMIT' DISBURSES SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUST&

YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL NENTS(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) C?) CS)

1971 i * -

1972 327 ' 100 '

1973 100 327 ' 227 58 20 781974 269 269 - 0 61 16 78 -

1975 208 208 0 65 12 781976 142 142 - - 69 9 781977 73 73 m U 73 4 78

S1UPPLEMENT

Table 4.2: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT AS OF DECEMBER 3191972

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS

OTHER PRIVATE FINANCIAL INST.USA PAGE 23

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOO CANCEL&

LATIONSoDISBURSEO INCLUDING COMMITO DISBURSE- SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUST-

YEAR, ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS(1) (2) (3) (4) CS) C6) CT) (8)

1968 6.601 - -1969 ' 6.601 2.200 -'1970 2#200 6.601 11.068 1.555 1.755 346 2.1011971 2.000 15P914 2P896 2.906 684 3.5901972 1.990 13.008 - 3.595 3,373 918 . 40291

1973 2.212 9P635 ' 4J470 1.223 323 1*5461974 5.459 8P412 ' 1.712 1#223 473 1.6961975 5.948 7.169 ' 994 1i223 484 1.7071976 5.719 5.966 - 247 1,223 436 1J6591977 4.743 4.743 - - 1.223 349 1.572 -1978 3.519 3P519 - 1.223 251 1.475 -

1979 2.296 2J296 ' a 1J223 154 1.3771980 1.073 1.073 - 636 57 693 -

1981 437 437 - 49 30 781982 389 389 ' - 49 26 751983 340 340 a 49 23 721984 292 292 ' a 49 20 681985 243 243 ' - 49 16 651986 194 194 - 49 13 611987 146 146 - 49 9 58 a

1988 97 97 . , 49 6 551989 49 49 ' 49 3 51 -

SUPPLE;1tT

19/01/73Table 4.2: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT AS OF DECEMBER 31J19?2

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U*S. DOLLARS

OTHER PRIVATE FINANCIAL INST.MULTIPLE LENDERS PAGE 24

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCELLATIONSPDISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE SERVICE PAYMENTS AOJUStOYEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS NENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) CO) ')

1971 3#320 -a 2401972 3 5600 1200

a ' u 0

1973 1Z200 4J638 2'536 827 192 1'018 5371974 3.O43 4o548 0 860 827 261 1i0881975 3PO76 3P721 5 538 827 251 1,0781976 20786 2s,94 ' 108 827 211 100381977 2,067 2s067 - 827 149 976 01978 1s240 1o240 A 827 83 9101979 413 413 ' ' 413 17 430

ECONONIC AND SOCIAL DATA DIVISIONECNOMIC ANALYSIS & PROOEfTIONTS DLPARThENT

OCTOBER 29, 1973

09/24/73

Table 4.3: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING AS Of DECEMBER 31.1972

DEBT REPAYABLE tN LOCAL CURRENCY

iN THOUSANDS or UoS. DOLLARS

DEBT OUTSTANDING DECEMBER 31.1972CURRENCY DISBURSED

CREDITOR COUNTRY UNDISTYPE or CREDITOR DISBURSED BURSED TOTAL

DISBURSED IN LOCAL CURRENCY 141 39 180UNITED KINGDOM 141 39 180

SUPPLIERS 141 39 IO

DISBURSED IN FOREIGN CURRENCY 386 202 586FRANCE 386 202 588

OTHER PRIVATE FINANCIAL INST. 386 202 5s8

DISBURSED IN LOCAL CURRENCY 5P263 20.117 25.380DISBURSED IN FOREIGN CURRENCY 15,011 31.568 46*579

1DB 20.274 51*685 71.959LOANS FROM INTL. ORGANIZATIONS 20.274 51.685 710959

DISBURSED IN LOCAL CURRENCY * 255 255SWITZERLAND 255 255

DISBURSED IN LOCAL CURRENCY 4.522 4.522USA 4.522 * 4.522

LOANS FROM GOVERNMENTS 4#522 255 40777

TOTAL EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT 25.323 32.181 t77504

NOTEI DEBT WITH A MATURITY OF OVER ONE YEAR

ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DATA DIVISIONECONOMIC ANALYSIS & PROJECTIONS DEPARTMENT

OCTOBER 29, 1973

0t/24/? 3

Table 4-4: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT AS OF DECEMBER 31P1972

OEBT REPAYABLE IN LOCAL CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS

TOTAL J_ l

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PiRIOOBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL

LATIONS.DISBURSED INCLUOING COMMIT- DISSURSEX SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUSTO

YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (a)

1965 16,957 20,049 932 1,141 451 1'592 5701966 16,748 18,338 12s00u 637 1,248 590 1e838 71967 16,137 29,u53 2,500 109 1,236 6 19 1855 -2,0591968 12,950 28,288 1,000 466 1,408 740 2.148 2361969 12*010 27*644 1 733 2,744 1,516 507 2.023 21970 13,237 27P659 41'08T 5*393 2,233 547 2,780 1,686197I 15.711 65,027 616 5*953 1A829 874 2,703 391972 19*835 63 653 21*5U0 6*83? 1*348 1,059 2,407 *6,501

1973 25, 323 77'504 - 16#173 2,378 1436 3*8151974 39,118 75P126 - 12,560 2A336 1-797 4I1341975 49,342 72*790 - B.485 3,950 2,020 5,9701976 53,877 68pd40 - 6*219 3,998 2,099 6,0971977 56,098 640842 5*149 4,760 2.118 6,8781978 756,47 60e082 - 3 271 4,200 2,080 6p28 11979 55,557 556s81 - 324 4,136 1,980 6*1161980 5174 5 51.745 - - 4*072 1,834 5 906 919 81 47673 47,673 - 4,0.62 1,685 5,747 -

1982 43 611 43P611 3,983 1,537 5b52 11983 39,628 39*626 - 3*7 5 1,394 5 *179 1984 35P842 35*b42 3- 3,75 1,256 5*0411965 32,057 32,05? - - 3 535 1, 116 4*6541986 26*521 2bp521 - - 3,265 996 4*2811987 25,236 25,236 3 - 3177 876 4s0551988 22,058 22,u56 * 3,069 767 3*836 31989 19,989 1b,v89 - - 3,055 65b 3 713 3199U 15,934 15,934 2 - 2,924 550 3i474 71991 13,O09 13*009 - - 2,551 451 3,002 21992 10,456 1 0 45 - . 2,551 361 2,912

,DT.: tD EB7? 4Tl A >iATj )Y 7 YJ& I. ' 7 . . ' - - , .

01/24/73

Table )*.L: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT AS OF DECEMBER 31J1972

DEBT REPAYABLE IN LOCAL CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARSSUPPLIERS

DISBURSE: IN LOCAL CURRECY PA7rE 2

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL

LATIONS*DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT' DISBURSE' SERVICE PAYMENTS AOJUST&

YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSEO MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) C?) C6)

1970 - - 187 - - ' '1 971 - 187 - -7 - - 161972 - 203 164 23 10 33

1973 141 180 29 21 8 291974 149 159 10 21 8 291975 138 138 ' - 21 7 281976 116 116 ' a 21 6 271977 95 95 a - 21 5 261978 74 74 ' ' 21 4 251979 53 53 a 21 3 241980 32 32 a 21 1 23 a1981 11 11 ' 11 a 1 t

0/24/73

Table a.L EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT AS OF DECEMBER 31,1972

DEBT REPAYABLE IN LOCAL CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARSOTHER PRIVATE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

DISBURSED IN FOREIN CURRENCY PAGZE 3

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS OURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL"

LATIONSPDISBURSED INCLUDING CDMMITO DISBURSE= SERVICE PAYMENTS AOJUS76

YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

1971 - 616 - - a a1972 - 616 ' 414 28 2 30

1973 386 588 ' 115 90 29 1201974 411 498 62 90 29 1201975 382 407 25 90 26 1161976 317 317 - - 90 21 11I1977 226 226 - U 90 14 1051978 136 136 - - 90 8 9819 7 45 45 U '45 2 47 U

Og/2A/73

Table LJ.1 EXTERNAL PUBLIC DE8T AS OF DECEMBER 311972

DEBT REPAYABLE IN LOCAL CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS

LOANS FROM INTL* ORGANIZATIONS BASIDB

DIS3JRSED IN LOCAL CURRECY

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCELO

LATIONSPDISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT' DISBURSE& SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUST'

YEAR ONLY UNDISOURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS(1) (2) C3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

1965 386 1,017 - 51 26 7 71966 335 966 1.300 31 27 23 501967 339 2,239 - 27 27 54 -1968 312 2,212 1J0OO 27 28 551969 285 3'185 I0U 725 33 32 651970 977 3J252 4p50U 1J966 85 76 163 -1,0001971 2,B58 6,667 1,712 104 150 2541972 4.466 6,563 18J90U 880 83 23t 321 -

1973 5,263 25P380 * 5.369 213 430 643 31974 1 0, 4 1 9 2 5'1 67 - 5 090L 305 591 8951975 15,#204 24J662 - 3#423 645 714 1,359 U1976 17,982 24,217 - ,2544 609 786 I.3961977 19,916 23P607 2.011 1#400 828 2.2281978 20.528 22P208 1,356 1I400 829 2.2281979 20.484 20.608 - 324 1,400 802 2.201 11980 19p409 19' 409

U 400 752 2 1511981 18 00 1BS9 18P009 I U 1,400 696 2.0961982 16.*610 16610 - - 1,400 641 2.0411983 15.210 15.210 U 1,400 586 19851984 13.811 13.obl -II 1,400 530 1.9301985 12.411 12 411 - . 1,320 475 1I795 U1986 11.091 11 u91 - - 1o241 424 1,666 61 9B7 9,8 49 9J 849 I U 1 133 3 75 1 , 509 9198B 8J716 8J716 I U 1,025 333 1J358 -1989 7,691 7,tYi U - 1o011 293 1'303 3199G 6,680 6,660 - 991 253 1,2441 99 1 5. 690 5. 69u 9 94 1 2 1 5 J 1 56 U

1992 4.749 4.149 - - 941 179 1120 U

0/24/t3

Table 4L4: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEST AS 0F DECEMBER 31*1972

DEBT REPAYABLE IN LOCAL CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS

LOANS FROM INTL. ORGANIZATIONS1DB

DISBURSED IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL&

LATIoNS*DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUST

YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

1966 lu- 700 a1967 - 1*j700 2P500 - 45 451965 1320U * 466 ' 66 661969 466 13*200 1*400 2*019 - 95 95 -

1970 2 A 485 14.oOO 36P400 3*427 - 177 177 -

1971 5,912 51 UO - 4*241 204 475 679 -1972 9,949 50,796 2p600 5,379 317 671 988 -6*500

1973 150011 46,579 1O*456 717 820 1*5371974 24,750 45, t62 7 o 3347 1*0 009 1*050 2*065 -

1975 31,087 44*852 - 5*037 2,410 1*191 3*601 -

1976 33P714 42J442 3*i675 2*522 1 232 3*7541977 34*867 39*920 3 3*138 2*584 1J242 3,826 -1978 35J421 37,336 - 1*915 2P584 1*23U 3*813 31979 340753 34J753 - - 2J584 1167 3r751 1980 32J169 32*169 - 2,584 1i0777 3J661 -

1981 29,585 29*585 - - 2*584 987 3,57 01962 27,001 27,001 * 2,584 896 3*4801983 2 4 J 41? 24 4 1 7 - a 2,386 808 3*f1941984 22,031 22*031 a 2,386 726 3 A111 I1965 19 646 19p646 - 2*215 643 2P858 -

1986 17*430 17*430 2,*044 571 2*615 -1987 15P366 15P386 - 2J044 502 2,547198a 1 3342 13*342 - 2,044 434 2*478 -1989 11 298 11*29 26 - 2,044 365 2*4091990 9 2 53 9' 3 - 1*934 296 2J230 b1991 7*3 2 7fi20 - - 1*611 235 1*846 -

1992 5*709 5,7u 9 I 1 o 611 182 1*793

06/24/73

Zabile X l EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEbT AS OF DECEM6ER 31o1972

DEBT REPAYABLE IN LOCAL CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS

LOANS FROM INTL. ORGANIZATIONS FA'IDO

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL;

LATIONS.DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMITT DISBURSE& SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUST'

YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) CT) Cs)

1965 386 1,017 - 51 26 771966 335 966 12.0UU 31 27 23 501967 339 12.939 2,500 27 72 991968 312 15J412 1Q000 466 27 94 121 11969 751 16.385 U U 2.*744 33 127 1601970 3J462 17p652 40,900 5,393 85 255 340 1P 001971 8J770 57.66? - 5.953 308 625 9331972 14.415 57,359 21 500 6.259 400 909 1.309 -6#500

1973 20#274 71J959 15825 931 1 2250 2J1811974 35.168 71.026' 12.437 I,314 1,64t 2.9601975 46.291 69o714 - 8.460 3,055 1 904 4,9601976 51.696 66,659 6,219 3 131 2 018 5.149 91977 540784 63,528 5. 149 3,983 2J070 6.054 41978 55,949 59o544 ' 3.271 3.983 2,058 60421979 5J5237 55,561 - 32' 3.983 1J969 5.9521980 51,578 51,578 3 a 3.983 1.828 58121981 47.594 47.594 3 - 3.983 1.683 5.6661982 43.611 43.611 3a3,983 1,537 5.5211983 39.628 39.628 7 3785 1,o394 5.179 91984 35.842 35.842 3I785 1.256 5.0411985 32.057 320U57 3 - 3.535 1.116 4.6541986 2bo52i 28,521 2 , 3.285 996 4J281 a1987 25.236 25,236 3,J177 876 4.0551988 22,p 058 22PU58 - 3.069 767 3.836 31989 18.989 18,989 a a 3.055 658 3.713 31990 15J 934 15JY34 9 2924 550 3,4741991 130 U9 13.J09 ' ' 2,551 451 3J0021992 10.458 10J45B - ' 2 551 3e1 2.912 a

Of/24/73

Table 4-4 EXTERNAL PUBLIC DE8T AS OF DECEMBER 31.1972

DEBT REPAYABLE IN LOCAL CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U.SS DOLLARS

1.OANS FROM INTL. ORGANIZATIONS FAGE 7

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL'

LATIONSoDISBURSED INCLUDING COMMITO DISBURSEN SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUST'

YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

1965 386 1,017 * 51 26 771966 335 C 966 12.000 31 27 23 50 -1967 339 12P939 2Z500 a 27 72 991968 312 15.412 1p000 466 27 94 1211969 751 16.365 1.500 2.744 33 127 160 -197u 3,462 17,852 40.900 5S393 85 255 340 1,0001971 8J770 57,667 5,953 308 625 9331972 14.415 57,359 21P500 6.259 400 909 1,309 -6,500

1973 20,274 71,959 15J825 931 1i250 2 11 a1974 35J168 71.U28 - 12,437 1,314 1,646 2,9601975 46.291 69,714 - 6.460 3,055 1*904 4.9601976 51.696 66.659 - 6.219 3,131 2,018 5.1491977 54J784 63,528 - 5.149 3.963 2.070 6.054 41978 55,949 59,544 U 3J271 3,9b3 2,058 6,0421979 55,237 55.561 * 324 3,983 1J969 5,9521980 51.578 51,57 8 - 3.963 1.828 58121981 47,594 47,594 - - 3.9b3 1683 5J666 -1982 43.611 43.611 a ' 3.983 1,537 5#5211983 39.628 39.628 ' - 3.765 1,394 5.1791984 35,842 35.642 a - 3.765 1,256 5.0411985 32,O57 32.O57 ' 3,- 535 1.118 4.654 -1986 28.521 28,521 a 3,285 996 4.2B1 U

1987 25,236 25.236 - - 3,177 87B 4.055 m

198B 22,058 22.U58 a 3,069 767 3.8361989 18.989 18J989 - 3,055 656 3J713 31990 15.934 15.934 - 2J924 550 3.474 71991 13.009 13.009 U 2.551 451 3.00 21992 10.458 1 U458 ' ' 2,S51 361 2.912 2

O/24 /73

Table 4.1X: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT AS OF DECEMBER 31J1972

FOR LOANS ISSUED DURING THE PERIOD JANUARY IP 1900 - DECEMBER 31'1972DEBT REPAYABLE IN LOCAL CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS

LOANS FROM GOVERNMENTS PAGE -SWITZERLAND

DISBURSE IN LOCAL CURRENCY

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL'

LATIONS,DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMITO DISBURSEa SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUST

YEAR ONLY UNOISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS(1) (2) (3) (4) C5) C6) CT) (8)

1969 a 233 - -11970 - 232 - - a '1971 a 232 - - ' ' 231972 ' 255 ' ' ' ' '

1973 - 255 - 204 128 3 1301974 77 128 - 51 128 3 130

03/24/73

Table h.h: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEST AS OF DECEMBER 31.1972

DEBT REPAYABLE IN LOCAL CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS

LOANS FROM GOVERNMENTS PAkCE 9USA

DISBURSED IN LOCAL CURRENCY

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL*

LATIONSPDISBURSED INCLUDING COMMITO DISBURSE SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUSTO

YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL HENTS(1) C2) t3) (4) C5) (6) (C) (a)

1965 16.571 19 032 - 932 1 090 425 1.515 '5701966 16.413 17.372 - 606 1.221 567 1J788 071967 15P798 16P144 ' 109 1.209 547 1J 7 56 -2^0591968 12o638 12.o76 a 1J381 646 2.027 *2361969 11259 11.259 * - 1.483 350 1.863 '11970 9.775 9.775 - 2.148 292 2o440 -6861971 6.941 6i941 - ' 1.521 249 107701972 5.*420 5.420 - U 897 138 1.035

1973 4.522 4.522 - ' 1.208 147 1.355 51974 3.314 3.f314 - 783 111 8941975 2A531 2.531 - - 783 83 8661976 1,748 1I748 - * 755 55 8101977 993 993 - 665 28 6931978 328 328 105 10 1161979 222 222 - - 87 7 931980 136 136 a 68 4 721981 68 68 - - 68 2 70 -

Qg/Z4/7 3

Table 4-LJ: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT AS OF DECEMBER 3101972

DEST REPAYABLE IN LOCAL CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS

LOANS FROM GOVERNMENTS PA'I 10

OEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCELN

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT' DISBURSE SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUSTOYEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (?) (8)

1965 16,571 195,U32 ' 932 1,090 425 1*515 '5701966 16J413, 17,372 606 1 221 567 1#788 'T1967 15,798 16,144 109 1,209 547 1 756 02 0591968 12.638 128 76 ' i' ,361 646 2J027 02361969 11,259 11J259 233 * 1,483 380 10863 '21970 9.9775 10.007 is 2,148 292 2J440 '6861971 6*941 7.173 * 1,521 249 1S??0 231972 5,420 5,675 - 897 136 1035 '1

1973 4,522 4,777 ' 204 1#336 150 104851974 3,390 3,441 51 911 114 1,0241975 2,531 2,531 763 63 866 -1976 1,748 1.74 - 755 55 8101977 9 9 3 993 665 28 693 5

1978 328 326 - 105 10 116 -1979 222 222 8 ' 87 7 931980 136 136 - - 68 4 721981 68 68 - 5 68 2 70

ECONOMC AND SOCIAL DATA DIVISIONTCOTOT-IC ANALYSIS & PROJ3CTIONTS DEPARTCN-

OCTOBER 29, 1973

0/24/73

Table h.h: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT AS OF DECEMBER 31*1972

DEST REPAYABLE IN LOCAL CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS

SUPPLIERS PAGE IUNITED KINGDOM

DISBURSED IN LOCAL CURRENCY

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCELO

LATIONS,DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMITO DISBURSE- SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUST

YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTStl) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Ca) ()

1970 - - 187 - - '1971 - 187 - - - - 161972 - 203 164 23 10 33

1973 141 180 ' 29 21 8 29 -

1974 149 159 - 10 21 d 29 '1975 138 138 - - 21 7 281976 116 116 - 21 6 271977 95 95 - - 21 5 26 -1978 74 74 - 21 4 251979 53 53 ' - 21 3 241980 32 32 - - 21 1 23 -

1981 11 11 - - 11 - 11 -

7 i .T

0 /24/73

Table L.b: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEbT AS OF DECEMBER 31#1972

DEST REPAYABLE IN LOCAL CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U#S. DOLLARS

OTHER PRIVATE FINANCIAL INST. PAGE 2FRANCE

DISBURSED IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL'

LATIC1SPDISBURSED INCLUDING COMMITO DISBURSE- SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUSI&

YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS(1) t2) (3) (4) (5) (6) C?) CS)

1971 - 616 - 0

1972 616 ' 414 28 2 30

1973 386 588 ' 115 90 29 1201974 411 498 ' 62 90 29 1201975 382 407 25 90 26 1161976 317 317 - - 90 21 1111977 226 226 ' - 90 14 105197a 136 136 - 90 B 981979 45 45 - - 45 2 47

ECONONPC AND SOCIAL DATA DIVISIONECONOMIC ANALYSIS & PROJECTIONS DEPART =NT

OCTOBER 29, 1973

Table 5.1: ECUADOR - CENTRAL GOVERNMENT CASH OPERATIONS, 1968-73

(In millions of sucres)

1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973

Current revenue 2,527.1 2,924.8 3,716.8 4,101.7 5,223.5 7,537

Total expenditure 3,424.1 3,686.7 4,656.8 5,o56.5 5,753.5 7,082

Overall surplus ordeficit (-) -897.0 -761.9 -943.0 -954.8 -530.0 455

Foreign financing(net) 70.1 - 21.4 54.9 - 59.S 1,005.3 -65Drawings 164.1 107.9 163.6 103.7 1,142.o/1 87Amortization - 94.o -129.3 -108.7 -163.2 -137.5 149

Domestic financing(net) /2 826.9 783.3 888.1 1,014.3 -475.3 780Central Bank (net) 4T7W= 566.6 1,114.7 4= -179.2 390Central Bank (net)L ( 544-1) ( 496.2) ( 543.6) ( 770.0) (-746.6) (917)FloatL (- 65.9) ( 70.4) ( 571.1) (-301.2) ( 567.4) (526)

Domestic bond issues 338.9 2 2 4.1 220.2 452.0 -159.6 390Drawings ( 565.8) ( 420.0) ( 30.7) ( 734.0) ( 433.5) (680)Arnortization (- 266.9) (-195.9) (-210.5) (-282.0) (-593.1) (289)

Other 9.8 - 7.4 -446.8 93.5 -136.5 -0-

Memorandum item: floatingdebt outstanding ( 230.5) ( 215.6) ( 293.2) ( 472. 6 ) ( 423.9) (243)

Percentage Annual Change

Current revenue 6.5 15.7 27.0 10.4 27.3 44.3Total expenditure 41.9 7.7 26.3 8.6 13.8 23.1Gross domestic product 7.0 12.0 18.9 17.4 19.6 25.1

As Percent of GDP

Current revenue 9.1 9.4 10.0 9.4 10.4 13.1Total expenditure 12.3 11.8 12.6 11.6 11.1 12.4

/1 Includes the use of the $40 million loan from the Manufacturers Hanover Trust Company.According to treasury data.

3 According to monetary accounts.Includes adjustments for differences between treasury and monetary accounts.

Source: Ministry of Finance and Central Bank of Ecuador

Table 5.2: ECUADOR - CONSOLIDATED PUBLIC SECTOR OPERATIONS, 1968-73

(In millions of 1972 sucres)

1968 1969 1970 1971p 1972e 1973

Current receipts 6,046 6,357 7,171 7,497 8,138 13,064

Current expenditures 5,967 6,386 7,261 6,830 7.327 8,225

Current account surplus 79 -29 -90 667 811 4,839

Investment expenditure 2,133 2,220 2,813 2,416 2,685 5,oo6

Fixed investment 1,958 2,024 2,337 2,184 2,257 4,749Purchase of existing assets 123 165 433 131 298 257Transfers 52 31 L3 101 130 -0-

Overall surplus or deficit -2,054 -2,249 -2,903 -1,749 -1l374 -167

FHnancing

Internal financing 911 785 1,608 1 326 696 149Disbursements 1 1 1,283 2,221 1,9 1,7316 T'9Amortization 560 1498 6213 670 620 549

External financing 224 16 554 103 303 -230Disbursements 510 37 830 T7 i, T 202Amortization 286 318 276 370 431 132

Donations 275 257 287 261 '57 232

Use of funds from next year's budget 197 805 260 261 - -

Other revenue 39 316 174 29 140 161

Use of cash balances (- = increase) - 247 70 20 30 22 -145

Source: Ministry of Finance, Central Bank of Ecuador, IMF and mission estimat3s

Table 5.3: ECUADOR - CENTRAL GOVERNMENT CASH REVENUES, 1968-73

(In millions of 1972 sucres)

1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973

Total Cash Revenues 3,276 3,622 4,312 4,344 5,224 6,850

CATS and other Tax Credits -0- -0- - 5 -376 -117 -15

Total Revenues 3,276 3,622 4,317 4,720 5,341 7,004

Tax Revenues, including Petroleum,Total 2,992 3,112 3,957 4,500 4,945 6,796

On Income and Property (excludingPetroleum) 432 503 682 810 920 876

Income Tax excluding Petroleum (403) (476) (644) (779) (920) (828)

Taxes on Foreign Trade (excludingPetroleum) 1,985 1,862 2,343 2,421 2,215 2,882

Import Duties (1,794) (1,733) (1,760) (1,870) (2,017) (2,552)

Export Duties (191) (150) (584) (551) (198) (330)

Taxes on Domestic Production andTransactions 384 476 709 1,o56 1,395 1,410

Other Taxes 192 251 223 212 138 237

Non-tax Revenues excluding Petroleum 272 244 293 212 334 209

Petroleum Revenues 11 265 68 8 340 1,441

Source: Ministry of Finance, Central Bank of Ecuador, IMF and mission estimates

Table 5.4: ECUADOR - ESTIMATED PUBLIC SECTOR REVENUES AND EXPENDITTJIUS, 1972-78

(In billions of 1972 sucres)

Actual Projected1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 977 1978

Current revenues 8.1 13.1 17.8 23.2 28.3 32.3 34.7

Non-petroleum (6.6) (8.7) (9.3) (10.0) (10.7) (-1.6) (12.4)

Petroleum (1-5) (h44) (8.5) (13.2) (17-5) (20.7) (22.3)

Current expenditures 7.3 8.2 9.2 10.3 11.5 2.9 14.5

Current surplus .8 4.9 8.6 12.9 16.7 19.4 20.2

Investmnent expenditure 2.7 5.o 5.9 8.8 6.9 n.a. n.a.

Over-all surplus or deficit (-) - 9 -. 1 2.7 4.1 9.8 n.a. n.a.

Source: Ministry of Finance, Central Bank of Ecuador, IMF and mission estimates

Table 5.5: ECUADOR - FIXED PUBLIC INVESTMENT BY SECTORS (1964-76)

(In millions of 1972 sucres)

Actual Estimae Estimates based on budgetActual Estimate Budget and progress of investment plan

________ 51964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1973 1974 1975 1976

Agriculture 231 248 220 173 180 192 250 201 314 /215! 204'- 437 652 1000 1250Fisheries - - - - - - - - 2 4 5 47 50Irrigation 44 43 41 24 56 60 61 61 139 42 _2 65/2 173 296 542 511Agrarian reform 26 36 33 11 4 11 43 36 57 79 19 22 35 150 250Other 161 169 146 138 120 121 146 104 116 86 111 178 223

(Forestry) (4) (4) (17) (38) (40) (100)

Energy 66 57 67 90 144 120 105 117 417 844 -- 1014/3 638 1320 1851 1560

Industry - 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 62 48 34 75 848 2654 584Industry and mining 18 19 50 50 50 100Petroleum (CEPE) 30/- 15/4 25 798 2604/5 484

(no investments until 1972)

TErnsportation 649 670 697 783 921 1000 1117 1247 962 1135 1147 998 1256 1410 1540Highways 581 645 665 707 862 853 974 1110 830 894/6 925 /6 803 910 1060 1200Ports 50 8 14 46 14 14 16 18 60 (100)f7 lOO7 115 226 225 225Airports /8 17 16 17 16 25 27 33 37 45 81 62 70 70 65 65Railways 1 1 1 14 20 76 94 82 27 60 60 10 50 60 50

Telecommunications 82 87 85 88 63 104 104 42 201 255 277 215 250 285 300

_Edcation 92 89 57 80 223 104 140 88 209 240/- 169 - 190 280 320 196

Public Health 45 37 38 54 75 77 95 95 102 30/10 40/10- 189 206 240 250

Community Services 170 231 294 209 201 234 284 284 242 250/11 50023 8 530 990 45 930Water 90 154 193 233 112 110 158 154 115 51/12) 72/12) 398) 650) u20) 480)Sewerage 57 62 48 37 32 38 39 41 43 ) ) ) )Urbanization 12 4 25 14 27 50 50 51 43 n.a. n.a. 96 250 200 250Other 11 It 18 25 30 36 37 38 41 n.a. n.a. 36 40 45 50

Other tnvestment 157 152 157 194 199 243 299 275 177 15 013 150/13 150 175 200 225

Total 1492 1571 1615 1771 2006 2074 2394 2349 2686 3167 3535 3422 5927 9126 6685

/1 Agriculture - Central Government Budget figures./2 Irrigation - Transfer from Central Government to INER1IT./3 Energy - Tncludes INECEL budget only. Hest of puiblic sector budget for 1973 and 1974 not known but approximately estimated to be 100 and 125 million sucres respectively./4 Petroleum (CEPE) - Btudget figures correspond to transfers to CPEP from National Budget./5 Figure for 1975 includes large capital investment for refinery./6 Highways - Differs with budget figure from National Planning Board in that it includes "Asignacion Global" for the Third Highway Plan, amounting to 73 million sucres for

1973 and 150 million sucres for 1974./7 Ports - No budget figures available for 1973 and 1974. Figures shown correspond to very rough mission estimaates./8 Airports - Capital investment for purchase of aircraft not included in these budget figures, or in mission estimates./9 Education - The budget amounits for 1973 and 1974 correspond to allocations to the Ministry of Education from National Budget and do not include minor municipal and

provincial contributions for which figures are not available./10 Public Health - Includes only contribution from National Budget./11 Community Services - Accurate budget allocations not available. Total amounts for this sector reflect approximate mission estimates./12 Water/Sewerage - Does not include rest of public sector budget./13 others - Very approximate mission estimates based on historical data.

SOURCE: Years 1964-72, National Planning Board, expressed in 1970 sucres conversion to 1972 sucres for period 1964-1972 carried oult using GDP deflator (1970=100; 1972=119) fromNational Planning Board data. The investment data from National 'P1anning Board differs markedly in some respects from data reported in 1972 IBRD economic report.

......

Table 6.1: ECUADOR - SUMMARY ACCOUNTS OF THE BANKING SYSTEM, 1971-73

(In millions of sucres)

Amounts at End of Period1971 1972 1973

Net International Reserves 696 3,225 5,87h

Domestic Credit 13,051 13,269 13,903

Central Government (net) 2,914 2,165 983Rest of Public Sector (net) -331 -530 -983Private Sector (net) 8,322 9,307 11,459Non-classified assets 1,982 2,324 2,855Interbank float 164 3 -h11

Medium-and long-term foreign liabilities 188 229 258

Liabilities to Private Sector 11,726 1h,298 17,160

Currency in circulation 2,342 2,818 3,538Monetary deposits 3,716 4,551 6,117Saving and time deposits 2,169 2,61h 3,196Stabilization bonds -- 3 360Mortgage bonds 1,623 1,842 2,127Other sucre liabilities 1,098 1,219 1,671

Advanced import deposits 693 1,148 13Foreign currency liabilities 85 103 138

SDRs allocations 209 305 339

Capital and reserves 1,62h 1,662 2,020

Capital and reserves, private 893 978 1,176Capital and reserves, public 731 684 84h

Source: Central Bank of Ecuador

Table 6.2: ECUADOR - INTERNATIONAL RESERVES OF THE BANKING SYSTEM, 1965-73

(In millions of U.S. dollars)

/11965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973

Total net reserves 41.7 53.9 62.3 53.4 57.9 56.1 26.5 127.9 238.7

Central Bank (net) 38.1 49.4 58.3 47.0 51.3 55.2 24.9 128.1 232.3Assets 45.9 61.1 69.1 57.3 65.0 83.3 62.8 142.0 244.4Gold 11.2 11.0 17.1 26.2 22.1 19.0 18.7 12.7 26.3Foreign exchange 30.4 45.2 43.6 17.6 27.5 40.6 27.9 95.7 182.0IMF gold tranche position - - - 0.5 - - - - -SDR's - - - - - 0.1 3.3 6.7 6.7Payments agreements - - 3.7 7.1 8.1 9.0 7.4 8.8 12.5Other assets 4.3 4.9 4.7 5.9 7.3 14.6 5.5 18.1 16.9

Liabilities 7.8 11.7 10.8 10.3 13.7 28.1 37.9 13.9 12.1To IMF 6.0 11.0 10.2 - 12.3 13.7 5.5 8.3 2.7Other liabilities 1.8 0.6 0.4 9.9 1.2 8.3 29.0 0.3 4.3Payments Agreements - 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 6.1 3.4 5.3 5.1

Commercial Banks (net) 3.6 4.5 4.0 6.4 6.6 0.9 1.6 0.2 6.4

/1 Until the third quarter of 1970 the exchange rate used is SI. 18 per U.S. dollar.Afterwards it is S/. 25 per U.S. dollar.

Source: Central Bank of Ecuador

Table 7.1: ECUADOR - BANK CREDIT TO THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR, 1950-72

(Millions of current sucres)

Agricultural Credit by Type of Banking AgriculturalInstitution Total Credit as a %

Banco Ncl. Central Private Bank of Total Bankde Fomento Bank L1 Banks Total Credit Credit

1950 192.1 154.8 31.3 378.2 1,723,3 21.91951 161.3 149.9 20.2 331.4 1,924.7 17.21952 186.8 39.0 20.5 246.3 2,o49.7 12.01953 195.0 23.3 31.2 249.5 2,218.9 11.21954 199.7 27.2 45.3 272.2 2,462.2 11.11955 260.6 36.1 53.2 349.9 2,823.6 12.41956 253.7 44.4 51.9 350.0 3,030.9 11.51957 301.6 36.8 67.7 406.1 3,383.5 12.01958 265.6 58.9 83.5 408.0 3,246.4 12.61959 189.5 40.0 93.6 323.1 3,281.1 9.81960 188.8 36.3 109.1 334.2 3,682.1 9.11961 234.2 114.2 102.5 450.9 4,044.2 11.11962 183.9 108.5 93.9 386.3 4,009.0 9.61963 201.9 104.4 98.8 405.1 4,382.6 9.21964 246.9 lol.o 161.2 509.1 6,275.0 8.11965 253.4 133.1 344.o 730.5 6,292.8 11.61966 304.8 153.2 482.4 940.4 6,487.0 14.51967 354.0 186.3 469.8 1,010.1 7,592.0 13.31968 438.9 148.1 481.4 1,068.4 8,984.5 11.91969 470.1 198.1 585.3 1,253.5 9,303.6 13.51970 531.0 215.3 840.5 1,586.8 12,454.0 12.71971 577.0 159.0 749.o 1,485.0 13,109.0 11.31972 561.0 109.0 1035.0 1,705.0 14,542.0 11-7

/1 Direct credit by the Central Bank. Excluded is Central Bank revenue tobanking institutions, Central Bank credit for future exports, and utiliza-tion by the Government of overdrafts on the Central Bank.

12 The substantial increase from the previous year is largely fictitious,since in order to meet a new legal stipulation to maintain agriculturalcredit at least 15 percent of their sight and term deposits, many loansmerely secured by agricultural assets were simply reclassified as agri-cultural. Moreover, a large but undetermined fraction of all agriculturalcredit is for short-term working capital and as such not linked to netinvestment.

Source: Central Bank

Table 8.1: TOTAL INDUSTRY CREDITS THROUGH ECUADORIAN FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, 1965-72

(In millions of sucres)

Central Private C.B. and Total TotalBank Banking Private Development Internal

Years (Direct) System Banks Banks Credits

Amount Change Amount Change Amount Change

196?5 647.4 491.0 1,138.4 - 64.3 - 1,202.7 -

I-,66 544.7 580.0 1,124.7 -1.2 169.5 163.6 1,394.2 15.9

1967 h54.2 63665 1,092.7 -2.8 233.2 37.6 1,325.9 -4.9

i968 623.4 661.8 1,305.2 19.4 289.9 24.3 1,595.1 20.3

1969 692.1 853.6 1,545.7 18.4 347.2 19.b 1,d92.9 18.7

1970 958.0 1,134.0 2,092.0 35.3 428.0 23.3 2,520.0 33.1

1971 1,030.0 1,266.0 2,296.0 9.8 509.0 18.9 2,805.0 11.3

1972 836.o 1,632.0 2,468.0 7.5 799.0 57.0 3,267.0 16.5

Note: Development banks, include Banco Nacional de Fomento, CFN and COFIEC.Private foreign suppliers' credit excluded. Data for CFN and COFIEC aredisbursements; for BNF, credits granted.

Source: Central Bank

Table 8.2: ECUADOR - PETROLE-UM DATA, 1973-77

1973 1974 1975 1976 1977

Distribuition of ProductionW Bl s)

Export 71.12 67.53 97.10 120.15 133.2SLocal 17.52 20.07 23.36 29.20 29.20

TOTATL 77.6 o7.60 1T20.77 179.67 62.173

Reference Price(US$/Bl)

Export 3.988 8.00 8.65 9.27 9.88Local 1.41 1.41 1.41 1.41 1.41

Value of Sales(U7S$)MM7 /a

Export 283.64 514o.oo 840.0 1,117.0 L,316.oLocal 24.70 28.30 32.94 41.17 Li.17

TOTAL 30°°34 568.30 780.61 1,052.95 1, 260.17

Government Revenue(Us$/B1) A

Export 1.830 14.96 5.36 5.87 6.257Local 0.394 o.529 0.529 0.529 0.529

Government Revenue( US ' /c

Export 167.06 334.94 520.46 707.O0 8L34Local 6.90 10.62 12.36 15145 l5.j)4

TOTAIL 173.9T 1T5.77 532.81 7224.9 7757

a Includes h.10 million barrels of royalty oil sold at $5.97/Bl.Estimated Government revenue excluding royalty.Includes 4.10 million barrels of royalty oil at $5.78/Bl.

Source: Ministry of Natural Resources, CEPE and mission estimates

Table 8.3: ECUADOR - SUMMARY OF EFFECTS OF PETROLEUM ACTIVITIES, 1973-77

(In millions of U.S. dollars)

1973 1974 1975 1976 1977

Foreign Exchan eInvestment I 67 100 108 70 78Less: Imports 47 70 76 49 55

Total 20 30 32 21 23

Exports 274 540 840 1,117 1,316Less: Remittances 85 167 260 346 408

Total 189 373 580 771 908

TOTAL FREIGN EXCHANGE 209 403 612 792 931

Value Added

Payments to Government 170 346 533 722 849Wages and Salaries 5 8 10 12 14Investment Income andDepreciation 65 118 186 155 293

Total 240 472 731 889 1,156

J Excludes the Esmeraldas refinery, products pipeline, distribution andstorage facilities for the domestic market.

Source: Ministry of Natural Resources, CEPE and mission estimates

Table 8.4: COMPOSITION OF ECUADORIAN PETROLEUM TAX PAID COST, AUGUST 1972-DECEMBER 1973

(U.S. dollars per barrel)

August 1( Jan. I April 1 May 16 June 22 Oct. 17 Nov. 10 Dec. 15 Average Jan. 1

1972 1973 1973 1973 1973 1973 1973 1973 1973 9974

Tax Reference Price 2.500 2.600 2.900 3.200 3.600 5.250 7.300 10.000 3.988 13.70Operating CostsProduction 2 0.450 0.450 0.450 o.45o 0.45o o.45o o.45o 0.45o 0.450 0.45oTransport 0 0.240 0.240 0.240 0.240 0.240 0.240 0.240 0.240 0.240 0.240

Royalty (16%) j 0.302 0.315 0.356 0.397 0.451 0.676 0.945 1.322 0.504 1.825Export Tax (15%) 0.375 0.390 0.435 0.480 0.540 0.788 1.095 1.500 0.598 2.055

Foreign Exchange Differential 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010

Profits before Income Tax 1.173 1.195 1.1409 1.623 1.909 3.086 4.551 6.478 2.186 9.120

Profit Earning (15%) 4/ 0.168 0.170 0.211 0.243 0.286 0.463 0.683 0.972 0.328 1.368

Taxable Income 0.955 1.016 1.198 1.380 1.623 2.623 3.868 5.506 1.858 7.752

Income Tax (44.4%) 5/ 0.424 0.451 0.532 0.613 0.721 1.165 1.717 2.445 0.825 3.442

Government RevenueRoyalty 0.302 0.315 0.356 0.397 0.451 o.676 0.954 1.322 0.504 1.825Export Tax 0.375 0.390 0.435 o.480 0.540 0.788 1.095 1.500 0.598 2.055Income Tax 0.424 0.451 0.532 0.613 0.721 1.165 1.717 2.445 0.825 3.442Pipeline Transport Fee 0.014 0.014 0.014 0.014 0.014 0.014 0.014 0.014 0.014 0.014Other Fees and Taxes 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090Profit Sharing 0.148 0.159 0.191 0.223 0.266 0.443 o.663 0.952 0.308 1.348Exchange Differential 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010

Total 1.361 1.429 1.628 1,827 2.092 3.186 4.543 6.333 2.349 8.784

Tax Paid Costs 1.969 2.035 2.234 2.433 2.698 3.792 5.149 6.939 2.955 9.390

j Includes approximately $0.09/B attributable to surface taxes, port dues and fees and other local taxes.2/ Includes $0.014/B representing Government participation in the pipeline tariff.j See Decree No. 239 of August 17, 1972. Royalty in cash is equivalent to 0.16 (reference price-pipeline-tariff-export tax).

) Most of this amount accrues to the Central Government, the balance being distributed among the workers./ Properly speaking, the tax on profits is as follows:

Income Tax - 40%State Universities - 10% of the above 40%Private Universities - 11% of the above 40%

In effect this works out as 44.4% of net taxable income. Taxes retained by the Government out of export earnings, have beenmade on this basis. The oil industry does not agree with this method of computation. It maintains that the universities taxis a deductible item for income tax purposes and that the net result is a total income tax of 42.6% and not 44.4%. Texaco/Gulfincome tax returns show the 42.6% method; to date this has not been refuted by the competent authorities.

Table 9.1: ECUADOR - GDP DEFLATOR, WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX,MAJOR CONSUMER PRICE INDEXES, AND WEIGHTED AVERAGE

ANNUAL EXCHANGE RATES, 1950-72

(1965=100)

Exchange RateWeighted Average/i Parity

GDP National CPI Sucres SucresYear Deflator WPI Quito Guayaquil Index Per US$ Per US$

1950 69.5 *- * 87.9 16.02 15.151951 72. ., 76.3 76.0 90.1 16.243 15.151952 7h.8 .. 78.9 .. 86.0 15.67 15.151953 76.1 .. 79.3 .. 85.8 15.64 15.151952 79.1 88.3 82.2 .. 86.0 15.67 15.151955 81.5 87.9 83.3 .. 88.1 16.07 15.151956 80.3 86.6 79.4 .. 88.8 16.20 15.151957 81.3 89.6 80.0 85.5 88.7 16.18 15.151958 81.8 89.5 81.3 86.0 86.5 15.76 15.151959 81.9 88.2 81.4 85.6 89.2 16.26 15-151960 83.4 86.8 82.6 85.4 89.2 16.25 15 151961 87.6 91.0 86.o 90.2 97.8 17.82 18.11962 89.5 92.3 88.5 91.1 107.4 19.57 18.181963 93.3 95.3 93.7 91.9 101.9 18.57 18.181962 96.3 93.8 96.9 95.2 99.8 18.18 18.181965 100.0 100.0 100.0 lC0.0 100.0 18.22 18.181966 105.1 102.7 104.1 103.3 101.7 18.53 18.181967 108.9 104.7 108.1 109.1 102.4 18.66 18.181968 113.5 106.2 112.7 111.3 104.7 19.08 18.181969 120.9 111.0 119.9 116.6 105.2 19.16 18 181970 129.5 116.6 126.0 123.1 118.9 21.67 25. 0OL.1971 140.9 .. 136.6 135.2 141.1 25.71 25.oo1972 153.3 - 147.4 145.3 1h2.7 26.0o 25.00

/1 Weighted average of exchange rates in the official and the free market forcurrent transactions.

/2 Change occurred in July.

Sources: Central Bank of Ecuador, National Economic Planning and CoordinationBoard; National Institute of Statistics; Institute of Economic andPolitical Research of the State University of Guayaquil; missionestimates