exxon mobil 2012 energy outlook

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

Rob Gardner May 22, 2012

This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

Demographic Shifts Alter Demand Profile Billion

OECD China India

Age 0 – 14

Age 15 – 64

Age 65+

Africa

2010 2040

Source: World Bank

ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1990 2015 2040

Quadrillion BTUs

Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040

0.9%

Energy Demand

Energy Saved ~500

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 2015 20400

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

1990 2015 2040

Global Progress Drives Demand

Billion Population GDP

Trillion 2005$


0.8%


2.9%

OECD

Non OECD


0

100

200

300

400

500

1990 2015 20400

10

20

30

40

50

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Rapidly Expanding Economies Drive Demand

Quadrillion BTUs Non OECD Demand

Trillion 2005 $ Non OECD GDP

China

India

Middle East

Rest of Non OECD

Latin America

Africa

Russia/Caspian

China

India

Middle East

Rest of Non OECD

Latin America

Africa

Russia/Caspian


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Res/Comm Transportation Industrial Electricity Generation

2010

2025 2040

Quadrillion BTUs

Electricity Generation Leads Growth

Electricity Demand


Electricity Generation

+80% By 2040, worldwide

electricity demand will be

80% higher.


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1990 2015 20400

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1990 2015 2040

Electricity Demand Continues to Surge

k TWh By Sector

Transportation

Industrial

Residential/Commercial

Quadrillion BTUs Fuel Into Electricity Generation

Oil

Gas

Nuclear

Coal

Wind

Renewables


0

5

10

15

20

Coal Gas Nuclear Wind *0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1990 2015 2040

Electricity Demand Continues to Surge

Quadrillion BTUs Fuel Into Electricity Generation

Oil

Gas

Nuclear

Coal

Wind

Renewables $60/ton CO2

2011 cents/kWh Baseload, Startup 2030

$0/ton CO2


0

2

4

6

8

1990 2015 20400

2

4

6

8

1990 2015 20400

2

4

6

8

1990 2015 2040

k TWh

Gas

Nuclear Coal

Wind

Other Renewables

Gas w/ CCS

Coal w/ CCS

Electricity Supply Varies Globally

United States k TWh China

Oil

k TWh Europe

* Generation by Type


Transportation

90% By 2040, 90% of

transportation will run on

liquid petroleum-based fuels.


0

10

20

30

40

50

1990 2015 2040

0

10

20

30

40

50

1990 2015 2040

Commercial Transportation Drives Demand Growth

Personal MBDOE

Commercial MBDOE

Light Duty Vehicles

Aviation

Marine

Rail

Heavy Duty Vehicles


0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000 2020 2040

Million Vehicles

Rest of OECD

Rest of Non OECD

China

United States

Light Duty Vehicle Fleet by Region Avg New Car Fuel Efficiency in 2040 Avg New Car Fuel Efficiency in 2040

Impact of Global Fleet Shift on Efficiency

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

US Europe China Japan India

On-Road MPG

2020-2025 Target 2015 Target

2010


0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000 2020 2040

Million Vehicles Light Duty Vehicle Fleet by Type

Conv. Gasoline

Conv. Diesel

Hybrid

PHV/EV Natural gas/LPG

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

US Europe China Japan India

Avg New Car Fuel Efficiency in 2040 On-Road MPG

2010

2020-2025 Target 2015 Target

Impact of Global Fleet Shift on Efficiency


0

100

200

300

400

500

NorthAmerica

EuropeOECD

Other OECD China India Middle East LatinAmerica

Other NonOECD

Advanced*

CNG

LPG

Conv. Diesel

Conv. Gasoline

2010

Millions of Vehicles Powertrain Technology

Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes

*Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles


0

100

200

300

400

500

NorthAmerica

EuropeOECD


Other NonOECD

Advanced*

CNG

LPG

Conv. Diesel

Conv. Gasoline

2025

Millions of Vehicles Powertrain Technology Millions of Vehicles




0

100

200

300

400

500

NorthAmerica

EuropeOECD


Other NonOECD

PHV/EVFull HybridCNGLPGDiesel ConvMogas Conv

2040

Millions of Vehicles Powertrain Technology Millions of Vehicles




0

10

20

30

40

50

1990 2015 20400

10

20

30

40

50

1990 2015 2040

Transportation Fuel Demand Shifts to Diesel

MBDOE OECD

Gasoline

Ethanol

Diesel

Biodiesel

Jet Fuel

Fuel Oil Other

MBDOE Non OECD


0

50

100

150

200

250

Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass/Other Wind / Solar /Biofuels

Hydro / Geo

0.7%

Quadrillion BTUs

Energy Mix Continues to Evolve

2010

2040

-0.2%

1.6%

2.2% 0.3%

6.0% 1.6%

Average Growth / Yr. 2010 - 2040

0.9%


0

5

10

15

20

U.S. Europe China India0

10

20

30

40

1990 2015 2040

CO2 Emissions Plateau

Billion Tons By Region

OECD

Rest of Non OECD

India & Africa

China

Tons per Person Emissions per Capita

2010

2025

2040


Supply

By 2040

60% of global demand will be supplied by oil & gas.


0

1

2

3

4

5

20400

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

MBDOE Liquids Supply

Liquids Supply Continues to Diversify

Conventional Crude and Condensate

Oil Sands

NGLs

Deepwater

Tight Oil

Biofuels

Remaining Resource

Cumulative Production

TBO Resource *

* Source: Total resource from IHS Inc. The use of this content was authorized in advance by IHS.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

North America

Europe OECD

Asia Pacific

Latin America

Africa

Middle East

1000 TCF

Conventional

Unconventional

1.3

4.1

2.6

2.3

8.1

4.9

4.8

Global Gas Resource

Source: IEA; * Includes Europe Non OECD

• World: ~250 years coverage at current demand

• Large unconventional gains anticipated

World

Russia/Caspian*


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000 2010 2020 2030 20400

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Unconventional Gas Contribution Increases

BCFD Production by Type

Unconventional Conventional

BCFD Demand by Region

North America

Middle East

AP Non OECD

Rest of OECD

Russia/Caspian

Rest of Non OECD


-30

-15

0

15

30

45

North America Europe Asia Pacific Africa Latin America Middle East Russia/ Caspian

BCFD

Pipeline LNG

Local Unconventional Local Conventional

By Type

Global Gas Supply Growth 2010 to 2025


-30

-15

0

15

30

45

North America Europe Asia Pacific Africa Latin America Middle East Russia/ Caspian

BCFD

Pipeline LNG

Local Unconventional Local Conventional

By Type

Global Gas Supply Growth 2025 to 2040


REGIONAL SNAPSHOTS


0

25

50

75

100

125

2000 2010 2020 2030 20400

25

50

75

100

125

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

North America Energy Demand and Supply

By Sector Quadrillion BTUs

By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs

Transportation

Industrial


Res/Comm

Oil

Gas

Coal

Nuclear Biomass

Other Renewables


0

10

20

30

40

50

2000 2010 2020 2030 20400

10

20

30

40

50

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Latin America Energy Demand and Supply



Transportation

Industrial


Res/Comm

Oil

Gas

Coal Nuclear

Biomass

Other Renewables


0

20

40

60

80

100

2000 2010 2020 2030 20400

20

40

60

80

100

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Europe Energy Demand and Supply



Transportation

Industrial


Res/Comm

Oil

Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Biomass

Other Renewables


0

25

50

75

100

125

150

2000 2010 2020 2030 20400

25

50

75

100

125

150

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

China Energy Demand and Supply



Transportation

Industrial


Res/Comm

Oil

Gas

Coal

Nuclear Biomass

Other Renewables

0

20

40

60

80

100

Energy Use Evolves Over Time

Percent Global Percent Mix of Fuels

1800 1900 2000 1850 1950

Biomass

Coal

Oil

Gas

Hydro Nuclear

Other Renewables

Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960)

2040

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