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EXWW workmeeting 2006-2007

Hotel Admiral, Bergen, June 12-14th 2007

Presentations by met.no

Vervarslinga på Vestlandet / Geofysisk institutt, UiBEkofisk II under bygging

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EXWW

A RISK REDUCING WARNING SYSTEM

EXWW-meeting, Bergen 12-14th june 2007 3

EXWW og VXWW historical review in short

• EXWW: Ekofisk eXtreme Wave Warning – Phillips Petroleum Norge, later ConocoPhillips– First meeting january 1991 after 12.12.1990 storm– Warning procedures every winter since fall 1991 (16

seasons)– Meetings every year to review procedures, find

potentials for improvements

• VXWW: Valhall eXtreme Wave Warning – First meetings in 2003 (Colin Grant, Asbjørn Tansø)– VXWW since fall 2004 (3 seasons)

EXWW-meeting, Bergen 12-14th june 2007 4

EXWW • Specific procedures for

Monitoring ForecastingCommunicationBackups

• Specific contingency (Oct-Apr)

• Specific forecasters

– Anne Karin Magnusson (16 yrs EXWW forecasting)– Magnar Reistad (16 yrs)– Øyvind Breivik (6yrs)– Kristine Gjesdal (1 yr + 20yrs statsmeteorolog)

EXWW-meeting, Bergen 12-14th june 2007 5

Monitoring procedures - XWW team

2 XWW-forecasters (XW1 and XW2) are at watch all winter (2 of 4 dedicated wave-special forecasters)

‘ 2 levels of contingency:

‘LOW’ ::: > “small chances of a high waves”

‘HIGH’ ::: > “there is storm activity central North Sea”

Levels are determined twice a day, by the duty-forecaster, after each issue of a new marine forecast.

CRITERIA

for CONTINGENCY LEVELS

(dev. 2006-2007)

Forecast Day 1

(0 - +24 hours)

Forecast Day 2

(+24 - +48 hours)

Forecast

Day 3-4

LOW CONTINGENCY

Hs < 4 m Hs < 6m Hs < 7.5 m

HIGH CONTINGENCY

Hs > 4m Hs > 6m Hs > 7.5 m

XW1’: has responsibility to distribute watch hours and to determine, at HIGH level of contingency, weather there is a forecasting situation or not.

‘XW2’: is backup and shall step into a watch if necessary.

EXWW-meeting, Bergen 12-14th june 2007 6

EXWW Activity and Communication

Before a storm

Under a storm

After the storm

Previously defined (actions on 3 hrly forecasts)

EXWW-meeting, Bergen 12-14th june 2007 7

EXWW - EXWW - VALIDATION

– Large annual variations of number of EXWW storms ( 2 to 12 cases) • NB: (forecast criterium was Hs>8m before 1995, now Hs > 7m)

– 85 storms, 77 included in validation, of which 30 with Hs > 9 m

Nb of EXWW storms pr winterseason

57

23

2

10

4 45

2

8

2

12

5

8

2

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

EXWW-meeting, Bergen 12-14th june 2007 8

SUMMARY of EXWW VALIDATION

• 77 storms:– average error in forecasted culmination wave

height is 0.06 m for all 77 storms.

• <DHx> = 0.06 m • Std = 0.54 m

• For highest storms (Hs or Hec>9m, in 38% of EXWW cases)

• <DHx> = -0.21 m • Std = 0.47 m

• The first EXWW forecast is sent in average 10 hours before culmination (std=6,4hrs)

• For highest waves: 13.7 hrs before (std=5,5 hrs)

EXWW-meeting, Bergen 12-14th june 2007 9

New procedures since 2007 (2MO, 3/6-08)

• Valhall and Ekofisk have to demobilise at very high Hs values, some criteria are related to problems with lifeboats

• Met.no has to warn these situations 3 days ahead, because Copno need 2-3 days to unmann 1000 persons at the most (but lower Hs levels do not require as much).

• Next slide: data and history (right) of maximum Hec value sent in warnings up to 4 days ahead.

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Andrea9. nov 2007 kl 8

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Historie bak bildet ”Supply_sjø.JPG”(email 19.juni 2006)Lars, (Lars Golmen, NIVA)

Sorry to say but we are not surprised that you cannot find anybody at the Norne field who knows about this photo - It's a FAKE.

The original photo of the vessel was taken offshore Newfoundland - copy attached.

RegardsNiels F Hansen

Niels F HansenChartering and Operations - Canada, Far East, CableMaersk Supply ServiceCopenhagen - DenmarkTel: +45 33633355 - Fax: +45 33633353 http://

www.maersksupplyservice.com

EXWW-meeting, Bergen 12-14th june 2007 12EXWW møte 2.-3. Juni 2008

EXWW meeting 2.-3. Juni 2008Hotel Edvard Grieg Suitell, Sandsli

Stormer og prosedyrer

EXWW-meeting, Bergen 12-14th june 2007 13

ANDREA STORMEN(name confusion with extrem weather warnings to the public)

EXWW-meeting, Bergen 12-14th june 2007 14

Veldig media kjør under Andrea

• http://www.bt.no/webtv/?id=7341 : evakuering av oljearbeidere

• http://www.bt.no/webtv/?id=7340 : tiltak i Bergen Kommune

…m.m. …..Navne forvirring skapte forventninger om ekstrem vær på land … mye

snø… kaos i vente … mange bilister skiftet til vinterdekk

EXWW-meeting, Bergen 12-14th june 2007 15

Nyhet fra Meteorologisk institutt 13.01.2007 Ekstremværvarsel: PEREkstremværvarsel: PER

Det er sendt ut ekstremværvarsel fra Meteorologisk institutt, Vervarslinga på Vestlandet. Varselet lyder som følger:

Natt til søndag 14.januar 2007 ventes kortvarig vest senere nordvest sterk storm i kystområdene av Rogaland, Hordaland og Sogn.

Mens et ekstremvær pågår sendes nye værvarsler hver 3. - hver 6. time. Varselet formidles da til :

• Justisdepartementet - beredskap • Fylkesmannen i de fylkene som rammes av været - beredskap • Politimyndigheten i det aktuelle området – i tilfelle evakuering • Kommunale etater i det aktuelle området – for å sikre verdier • Media – for å varsle allmennheten

Det er Vervarslinga på Vestlandet som håndterer ekstremværet Per. De vil også sørge for at alle instanser inkl. mottar oppdatert varsel så snart det foreligger. Denne saken oppdateres ikke de nærmeste timene. Følg derfor værvarslene på våre obs-sider Kontaktpersoner for media: Vervarslinga på Vestlandet, tlf. 55 23 66 00

Les mer: Om ekstremvær, navnsetting, navn på tidligere ekstremvær etc.