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"Extreme Weather in the ComingExtreme Weather in the Coming Decades‐‐What
is the Role of Climate Change?"
Thursday September 29 2011 7pmlkBy Roger A. Pielke Sr.
University of Colorado, BoulderTD Canada Trust Walter Bean Public LectureCa ada ust a te ea ub c ectu e
Waterloo, Ontario, Canada
2007 IPCC Report2007 IPCC Report
The 2007 IPCC perspective focuses on CO2 and a few other greenhouse gases as the dominate g ghuman climate forcing.
Global warming is the central theme of their perspective.
The IPCC starts with a top‐down global perspective to regional and local vulnerability to climate change. g
2007 IPCC Radiative forcings Without Feedbacks2007 IPCC Radiative forcings Without Feedbacks
Carbon Dioxide
A lAerosols
From Industrial EmissionsFrom Industrial Emissions
From Biomass Burning
Nitrogen depositiong p
Land Use/Land Cover Change
The human influence on climate is everywhere!everywhere!
H I I M h M Th CO2However, It Is Much More Than CO2 and a Few Other Greenhouse Gasesand a Few Other Greenhouse Gases
Fi H Wh D Th LFirst, However, What Do The Latest Multi‐Decadal Climate Metrics Tell UsMulti Decadal Climate Metrics Tell Us
About Trends and Anomalies?
Global Average Lower Troposphere and LowerTroposphere and Lower Stratosphere TrendsStratosphere Trends
1979 to 2011
RSS MSU Temperature Weighting FunctionsRSS MSU Temperature Weighting Functions
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies and Long Term TrendAnomalies and Long Term Trend
http://i52.tinypic.com/20kzma.jpg
Upper Ocean Heat Trendspp
Arctic Sea Ice Trends
Antarctic Sea Ice Trends
Sea Level Trends
Hurricane Variations Over Time
Western Russia Heat Wave Of 2009
http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2011/03/attribution‐and‐russian‐heat‐wave.html
R. Dole, M. Hoerling, J. Perlwitz, J. Eischeid, P. Pegion, T. Zhang, X.‐W. Quan, T. Xu, and D. Murray (2011), Was there a basis for anticipating the 2010 Russian heat wave?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38,(2011), Was there a basis for anticipating the 2010 Russian heat wave?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38,
L06702, doi:10.1029/2010GL046582.
“O l i i t t i il t l f th“Our analysis points to a primarily natural cause for the Russian heat wave. This event appears to be mainly due to internal atmospheric dynamical processes that p y pproduced and maintained an intense and long‐lived blocking event. Results from prior studies suggest that it is likely that the intensity of the heat wave wasit is likely that the intensity of the heat wave was further increased by regional land surface feedbacks. The absence of long‐term trends in regional mean temperatures and variability together with the model results indicate that it is very unlikely that warming attributable to increasing greenhouseattributable to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations contributed substantially to the magnitude of this heat wave.”
TornadoesTornadoes
Tornado Damage
Image from blogspot.com
Observed Climate And Social M t i I di t A V C lMetrics Indicate A Very Complex
Climate System That Is NotClimate System That Is Not Properly Defined By The Concept p y y p
Of “Global Warming”
The Data Suggests That Extreme WeatherThe Data Suggests That Extreme Weather Events Are Not Increasing, But This Is A T i A Of I S i Wi hTopic Area Of Intense Scrutiny With Conflicting Conclusions.g
A Challenge Is To Ferret Out The Societal Changes FromWeather ChangesChanges From Weather Changes.
Now Lets Do Some Climate Physics
Global warming involves the accumulation of heat in Joules within the components of thewithin the components of the climate system. This accumulation yis dominated by the heating and
li ithi th l fcooling within the upper layers of the oceans.the oceans.
Global Warming = Radiative forcings + Radiative feedbacksRadiative feedbacks
Global Warming = A Positive gRadiative Imbalance
From Ellis et al. 1979
From Jim Hansen 2005From Jim Hansen, 2005
“Our simulated 1993‐2003 heat storage rate was 0.6 W/m2 in the upper 750 m of the pp focean The decadal mean planetary energy imbalance 0 75 W/m2 includes heat storageimbalance, 0.75 W/m2, includes heat storage in the deeper ocean and energy used to melt ice and warm the air and land 0 85 W/m2 isice and warm the air and land. 0.85 W/m2 is the imbalance at the end of the decade”.
Upper 750 m Ocean Global Annual Average Heating
• 1993–2003 Hansen from the GISS model 0 6 W d0.6 Watts per meter squared
• 1993‐2003 Willis from observations 0 62 Watts per meter squared0.62 Watts per meter squared
• 2004‐2010 Willis (preliminary) 0.16 Watts per meter squared0.16 Watts per meter squared
Muted Global WarmingMuted Global Warming
The global annual average upper ocean heating rate in the last 7 years is about ¼ of that for the previous decade
In other words, global warming has been aboutIn other words, global warming has been about 25% of that in the previous decade. The heating rate will need to be about quadruple this rate in q pin order to “catch up” with the model predictions in the next 7 years.p y
Where Is The Extra Heat?Where Is The Extra Heat?
Deeper In the oceans?Deeper In the oceans?
Lost to Space?
Melting Glaciers?
Being Absorbed By Land?Being Absorbed By Land?
Absorbed In The Atmosphere?
Global Warming Is More ComplexGlobal Warming Is More Complex Than Reported In The Media And In The 2007 IPCC Climate Assessment
Climate Change, However,Climate Change, However,
Is Much More Than
Global Warming
• Climate Change is any multi‐decadal or longer alteration in one or more physical, chemical and/or biological components of the climate systemand/or biological components of the climate system. Climate change includes, for example, changes in fauna and flora, snow cover, etc which persist for , , pdecades and longer. Climate variability can then be defined as changes which occur on shorter time periodsperiods.
• Climate Is Much More Than Climate Change IndeedClimate Is Much More Than Climate Change. Indeed, the addition of the word “Change” is redundant. Climate is always changing, just like the weather
Source: National Research Council, 2005: Radiative forcing of climate change: Expanding the t d dd i t i ticoncept and addressing uncertainties.
Human Climate Forcings
Th i fl f th h i t f CO2 d th h
Human Climate Forcings
• The influence of the human input of CO2 and other greenhouse gases on regional and global radiative heating
• The influence of human‐caused aerosols on regional (and global) radiative heating
• The effect of aerosols on clouds and precipitation
• The influence of aerosol deposition (e g soot; nitrogen) on climate• The influence of aerosol deposition (e.g. soot; nitrogen) on climate
• The effect of land cover/ land use on climate
• The biogeochemical effect of added atmospheric CO2
What About Extreme Weather?
Is It Increasing as a Result Of The Diverse Range f H Cli i ?of Human Climate Forcings?
Is There Evidence Of A Human Role In Extreme Events?Extreme Events?
YES – However…….
What Are The Human Influences?
Global Average Changes In The Heat Content Of The Climate System (e.g. “Global Warming”) From Added CO2 and A Few Other Greenhouse Gases?CO2 and A Few Other Greenhouse Gases?
Land Use/Land cover Change?Aerosols From Biomass BurningAerosols From Biomass BurningAerosols From Industrial and Vehicular Emissions (soot; sulfates, etc.), )
Natural Climate Variability?Increased Exposure Of Society?
• Hypothesis 1: Human influence on regional climate variability and change is of minimal importance and natural causes dominate climatechange is of minimal importance, and natural causes dominate climate variations and changes on all time scales. In coming decades, the human influence will continue to be minimal.
• Hypothesis 2a: Although the natural causes of regional climate variations and changes are undoubtedly important, the human influences are significant and involve a diverse range of first‐ orderinfluences are significant and involve a diverse range of first‐ order climate forcings, including, but not limited to, the human input of carbon dioxide (CO2). Most, if not all, of these human influences on regional and global climate will continue to be of concern during theregional and global climate will continue to be of concern during the coming decades.
• Hypothesis 2b: Although the natural causes of regional climate• Hypothesis 2b: Although the natural causes of regional climate variations and changes are undoubtedly important, the human influences are significant and are dominated by the emissions into the atmosphere of greenhouse gases the most important of which is CO2atmosphere of greenhouse gases, the most important of which is CO2. The adverse impact of these gases on regional climate constitutes the primary climate issue for the coming decades. [IPCC]
Hypotheses 1 and 2b, however, are inaccurate characterizations of the climate system.
• Hypothesis 1: Human influence on regional climate variability and change is of minimal importance and natural causes dominate climatechange is of minimal importance, and natural causes dominate climate variations and changes on all time scales. In coming decades, the human influence will continue to be minimal.
• Hypothesis 2a: Although the natural causes of regional climate variations and changes are undoubtedly important, the human influences are significant and involve a diverse range of first‐ orderinfluences are significant and involve a diverse range of first‐ order climate forcings, including, but not limited to, the human input of carbon dioxide (CO2). Most, if not all, of these human influences on regional and global climate will continue to be of concern during theregional and global climate will continue to be of concern during the coming decades.
• Hypothesis 2b: Although the natural causes of regional climate• Hypothesis 2b: Although the natural causes of regional climate variations and changes are undoubtedly important, the human influences are significant and are dominated by the emissions into the atmosphere of greenhouse gases the most important of which is CO2atmosphere of greenhouse gases, the most important of which is CO2. The adverse impact of these gases on regional climate constitutes the primary climate issue for the coming decades. [IPCC]
Hypotheses 1 and 2b, however, are inaccurate characterizations of the climate system.
• Hypothesis 1: Human influence on regional climate variability and change is of minimal importance and natural causes dominate climatechange is of minimal importance, and natural causes dominate climate variations and changes on all time scales. In coming decades, the human influence will continue to be minimal.
• Hypothesis 2a: Although the natural causes of regional climate variations and changes are undoubtedly important, the human influences are significant and involve a diverse range of first‐ orderinfluences are significant and involve a diverse range of first‐ order climate forcings, including, but not limited to, the human input of carbon dioxide (CO2). Most, if not all, of these human influences on regional and global climate will continue to be of concern during theregional and global climate will continue to be of concern during the coming decades.
• Hypothesis 2b: Although the natural causes of regional climate• Hypothesis 2b: Although the natural causes of regional climate variations and changes are undoubtedly important, the human influences are significant and are dominated by the emissions into the atmosphere of greenhouse gases the most important of which is CO2atmosphere of greenhouse gases, the most important of which is CO2. The adverse impact of these gases on regional climate constitutes the primary climate issue for the coming decades. [IPCC]
Hypotheses 1 and 2b, however, are inaccurate characterizations of the climate system.
As Mike Hulme of the University of East Anglia writes of two views:
1) “The overwhelming scientific evidence tells us that human greenhouse gas emissions are resulting in climate changes that cannot be explained by natural causes Climate change is real we are causing it and it is happening right now”causes. Climate change is real, we are causing it, and it is happening right now.
or
2) “ h h l i i ifi id ll h h h2) “The overwhelming scientific evidence tells us that human greenhouse gas emissions, land use changes and aerosol pollution are all contributing to regional and global climate changes, which exacerbate the changes and variability in climates brought about by natural causes Because humans are contributing toclimates brought about by natural causes. Because humans are contributing to climate change, it is happening now and in the future for a much more complex set of reasons than in previous human history.”
As Mike Hulme writes
”….these two different provocations – two different framings of climate change –….these two different provocations two different framings of climate change open up the possibility of very different forms of public and policy engagement with the issue. They shape the response.
http://theconversation.edu.au/youve‐been‐framed‐six‐new‐ways‐to‐understand‐climate‐change‐2119
Damage and Property Loss Are D i t d B S i t l ChDominated By Societal Changes
Pielke, Jr., R. A., Gratz, J., Landsea, C. W., Collins, D., Saunders, M. A., and Musulin, R., 2008. Normalized Hurricane Damages in the United States: 1900‐2005. Natural Hazards Review, 9, 1, 29‐42.
http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2010/11/why‐there‐are‐no‐trends‐in‐normalized.html
How Vulnerability Can Change Over Time
A New Approach Is Needed!A New Approach Is Needed!
We Need To Replace The IPCC Top‐Down A h T P di F E i lApproach To Predict Future Environmental And Social Risk With A Bottom‐Up Resource‐Based Assessment of Vulnerability
Our Key Resources Are Water, Food, Energy, Ecosystem Function and Human Health
O'Brien, K. L., S. Eriksen, L. Nygaard, and A. Schjolden, (2007), Why different interpretations ofvulnerability matter in climate change discourses. Climate Policy 7 (1): 73–88
Questions For Stakeholders On The Bottom‐Up Approach
h i hi i ? i i d?1. Why is this resource important? How is it used? To what stakeholders is it valuable?
2. What are the key environmental and social variables that influence this resource?
3. What is the sensitivity of this resource to changes in each of these key variables? (This may include but is not limited to, the sensitivity of the resource to climate variations and change on short (days); medium (seasons) and long (multi‐decadal) time scales).
4 What changes (thresholds) in these key variables 3564. What changes (thresholds) in these key variables 356 would have to occur to result in a negative (or positive) outcome for this resource?positive) outcome for this resource?
5. What are the best estimates of the probabilities for these changes to occur? What tools are available tothese changes to occur? What tools are available to quantify the effect of these changes? Can these estimates be skillfully predicted?
6. What actions (adaptation/mitigation) can be undertaken in order to minimize or eliminate the
i f h h (negative consequences of these changes (or to optimize a positive response)?
7 Wh t ifi d ti f li k7. What are specific recommendations for policymakers and other stakeholders?
This bottom‐up vulnerability perspective concept requires the determination of the p qmajor threats to local and regional water, food, energy, human health, and ecosystem , gy, , yfunction resources from extreme events including climate, but also from other social g ,and environmental issues. After these threats are identified for each resource, then theare identified for each resource, then the relative risks can be compared with other risks in order to adopt optimal preferredin order to adopt optimal preferred mitigation/adaptation strategies.
Thank You for the opportunity to speak to youThank You for the opportunity to speak to you this evening!
Roger Pielke Sr. Research Websites
http://cires.colorado.edu/science/groups/pielke/
http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/
• Background Photograph Courtesy • of Mike Hollingsheadof Mike Hollingshead
• http://www.extremeinstability.com/i d htindex.htm