Extreme atmospheric and hydrological events: climate change, natural causes and anthropogenic

activities

Università dell’Aquila – CETEMPS

Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche e Chimiche

Dipartimento MESVA

G. Pitari, F. Marzano, G. Curci, G. Redaelli, V. Rizi, A. Di Sabatino,

D. Galassi, M. Iarlori, P. Tuccella, D. Visioni, S. Falasca, I. Gandolfi

Knowledge and observations as basis for prevention and mitigation strategies

Summary

• Causes and evidence of climate change

• Role of short lived pollutant species

• Transport of pollutants on a regional and global scale

• Analysis of the main connected risks: volcanic, environmental pollutants, hydro-meteorological, regional climate

• Mitigation strategies

• Prevention and resilience

• More than 20 years-experience at UnivAQ, by participating in international projects coordinated by, amongst others: EC, WMO, IPCC, NASA, ICAO, ESA, WCRP.

Global climate change: causes

• Trend of well mixed green house gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, halocarbons)

• Tropospheric and stratospheric ozone

• Stratospheric water vapor from CH4 ossidation

• Sulfuric aerosols (direct and indirect effects)

• Carbonaceous aerosols (direct and indirect effects)

• Soil dust (direct and indirect effects)

• Condensation trails by aircraft (direct and indirect effects)

• Solar variability

Global climate change: evidences

• Observed temperatures trends and future projections in IPCC scenarios

• Observed sea level rise trend and future projections by IPCC

• Observed trends for polar ice coverage

Global climate change: evidences

Global climate change: the role of emissions and transport of short lived species

• Need for accurated studies regarding the climatic role of very short lived species (VSLS): aerosol e tropospheric O3 precursor

• Figures: 20-years ozono sounding in L’Aquila: V. Rizi – M. Iarlori, UnivAQ- CETEMPS

Global climate change: the role of emissions and transport of short lived species

• Need for accurated studies regarding the climatic role of very short lived species (VSLS): aerosol e tropospheric O3 precursor

• Figures: 20-years ozono sounding in L’Aquila: V. Rizi – M. Iarlori, UnivAQ- CETEMPS

Atmospheric transport of black carbon on a global scale– from emission regions [Europe, North America,

Asia] towards the Arctic

Atmospheric transport of black carbon on a global scale– from emission regions [Europe, North America,

Asia] towards the Arctic

Huge impact on surface reflectivity of ice, here because of forest fires in Canada: black snow in Greenland

Atmospheric transport of black carbon on a global scale– from emission regions [Europe, North America,

Asia] towards the Arctic UnivAQ study on cut-off effects of black carbon emissions from diesel engines on road [Pitari et al.: A modelling study of the impact of on-road diesel emissions on Arctic black carbon and solar

radiation transfer, Atmosphere, 6, 318-340, 2015.

Risk analysis • Volcanic risk

• Risk of pollutants in air and water

• Hydro-meteorological risk

• Regional climate risk

An example: study on the global scale transport of radioactive tracers emitted after the Fukushima accident [Kristiansen et al.: “Evaluation of observed and modelled aerosol lifetimes using radioactive tracers of opportunity and an ensemble of 19 global models”, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 16, pag. 3525-3561, doi: 10.5194/acp-16-325-2016. UnivAQ coauthors: G. Pitari e G. Di Genova]. Figure: effective exposition dose that affects the population, in milli-Sievert, on a log-scale (Cesius 137, Xenon 133 and Iodine131)

Volcanic risk Volcanic eruptions are extremely rare, but have a huge socio-economic impact in places close to the eruption and affecting aircraft transportation. For instance, what happpend in 2010 because of the eruption of Eyjafjöll in Iceland [Marzano et al.: Inside Volcanic clouds: Remote Sensing of Ash Plumes Using Microwave Weather Radars, Bullettin Am. Met. Soc. (BAMS), 1567-1586, 2013.]

2010: Vulcano islandese Eyjafjöll

2011: Vulcano islandese Grimsvötn

Grímsvötn

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22 May 2011 - 08:35 UTC

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Misura radar della piuma eruttiva vulcanica

2017: Eruzione del M. Etna

Environmental pollutants risk Large forest fires, dumps, trash storage centers, agricultural wastes and industrial combustion are a risk factor for the population, both as a danger for people and things and as a health-hazard.

Modelling instruments to: • quantify the impact on air and soils of pollutants from many sources • evaluate the potential impact of new human activities • planning the mitigation of environmental risk both on short and long term

Centrale a Biomasse

Paganica

Monticchio

S. Elia

Bazzano

S. Gregorio

Fossa

Pollution and contamination of soils,

surface waters and aquifers

Presence of toxic and carcinogenic substances

in drinkable waters

Accumulation of heavy metals and toxic

substances in fish and macroinvertebrate

tissues

Transport and accumulation of

pollutants at a large distance from the

dumping site

Environmental pollutants risk Illegal toxic dumping site Bussi sul Tirino

• Need for continuous controls and new environmental monitoring techniques (biological and chemical-physical).

• Possible use of target species/communities to set up early warning systems.

• Ongoing studies (AQUALIFE project) have found high concentrations of mercury, lead and organochlorine a few cm below the river bed.

• The invertebrate fauna is rare, rarefied and sometimes completely absent. • These organisms, living in close contact with the river sediment matrix and in

groundwater, can act as early warning systems.

Effects of the toxic dumping site on the superficial and groundwater fauna of the Tirino River

• About 4 hectars near the Tirino and Pescara watercourses

• More than 250 thousand tonnes of chemical toxic and polluttants (chloroform, carbon tetrachloride, hexachloroethane, perchlorethylene, tetraclorethane, heavy metals, paraffinic hydrocarbons)

Hydro-meteorological risk Flooding events, occurrence and risk • A risk R is generally the product of hazard

H, vulnerability V and exposure E R = H x V x E

• Climate change includes not only changes in the average climate but also in extremes. For intense rainfall events, human contributions have been shown to intensify their frequency (Fisher and Knutti, Nature CC, 2015). For 0.85 °C (2° C) heating, the extreme precipitation fraction attributable to human influence is estimated at about 18% (40%).

• The impact of flooding should increase due to increased population growth, economic growth and climate change modification (Tanoue et al., Nature SR, 2016).

• Understanding the physical and temporal-temporal features of risk factors (danger, exposure, and vulnerability) is needed to develop effective flood mitigation measures, including through integrated monitoring and short-term (nowcasting) techniques.

CETEMPS: Mt. Midia Radar observation of intense precipitation in central Italy

CETEMPS: CHyM alert map for the hydrological hazard of river flooding in Abruzzo

Hydro-meteorological risk Mediterranean

watercourses will become intermittent,

with relevant ecological and socio-economic

impacts

Climate change is the main driver of future idrological droughts

X X 0

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The Aterno River: a long-term study on the ecological effects of aperiodic summer droughts

After three consecutive summer droughts the total abundance of macroinvertebrate populations was drastically reduced and two species were lost.

Perennial apennine rivers have low resistence and

limited resilience in relation to drought

events.

The flow reduction may severely

impacts structure and functions of

freshwater ecosystems.

The Aterno River (Acciano), July 2007

The Aterno River (Acciano), July 2006

Regional climate risk - The rise of global average temperature can be amplified at regional and local levels and linked to an increase of variability and occurrence of extreme weather events, depending on the specific regional characteristics (evidences in the Mediterranean basin).

- Need of medium and long-range, regional scale, probabilistic forecasts of average parameters and occurrence of extreme events: seasonal climate forecasts with high resolution Regional Climate Models (UnivAQ-CETEMPS)

2°C of global warming will result in approximately 3.4°C warming in the Mediterranean region. The graph shows how temperatures are developing according to region [Nature, 2016].

Average anomaly of the 2015 annual mean temperature with respect to the mean of the reference period 1961-1990, from weather station data (source: ISPRA).

An example of seasonal climate forecast by UnivAQ-CETEMPS, in terms of probabilities, of the departure of temperature from the climatological behavior of the region.

Mitigation strategies • Very short term measures: ability to pre-allert in quasi-real time all

those areas at environmental risk, expecially hydro-meteorological and volcanic

• Short term measures for the limitation of VSLS emissions (aerosol and tropospheric O3 precursors): huge benefits on air quality

• Long term measures for the reduction of WMGHG emissions (expecially CO2 and CH4): international agreements (Paris agreement)

• Eventual implementation of temporarily geo-engineering techniques. Theoretical studies towards:

(a) increase of the planetary albedo

(b) CO2 capture either on land or oceanic

(c) reduction of infrared planetary radiation entrapment by cirrus ice clouds in the atmosphere

Theoretical studies on geo-engineering techniques

Amongst those, sulfate geoengineering [Visioni, D., G. Pitari, and V. Aquila: Sulfate geoengineering: a review of the factors controlling the needed injection of sulfur dioxide, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 3879-3889, 2017], has already been experimented by our environment thanks to explosive volcanic eruptions.

Theoretical studies on geo-engineering techniques

Amongst those, sulfate geoengineering [Visioni, D., G. Pitari, and V. Aquila: Sulfate geoengineering: a review of the factors controlling the needed injection of sulfur dioxide, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 3879-3889, 2017], has already been experimented by our environment thanks to explosive volcanic eruptions.

Prevention and resilience

• Strengthening of on-field monitoring systems to reduce the damages to the population in the event of a disaster; improvement of the interaction between local-regional environmental protection agencies and universities and research centers

• Improvement of weather-climate forecasting modelling methods on different spatial and temporal scales, with optimal interaction with the instruments given by the European Community

• Valorization of young and brilliant minds in the field of scientific research applied to environmental risks (fixed time researcher positions and research grants)

Final summary

• Only the thorough study of all the complex interations, highly non-linear, of the climate system will allow national and local communities a more rational approach to the problems arising with the connected risks

• Investing on brilliant young scientists and on scientific research is by far the best strategy for the next 10-20 years