extract: things we didn't see coming by steven amsterdam
TRANSCRIPT
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8/9/2019 Extract: Things We Didn't See Coming by Steven Amsterdam
1/22
Xcd| Xj Gbmx Bmx
9
Nm{ |cj ffl{y| |efj, Ldl ey `j||ebh fj cj`p pdig |cj id{, kz|
mb`u kjidzyj e|y hj||ebh |m kj gebl mn db jfj{hjbiu" Cj yduy
xj~j jdic hm| |m pz`` fm{j |cdb mz{ mxb xjehc|" J~jb
|cmzhc xj{j mb`u hmebh |m H{dblfd dbl H{dblpdy nd{f,
cjy pdigebh zp |cj ge|icjb xe|c pdy|d, idby mn ymzp, dbl
pjdbz| kz||j{p`zy |cj |mm`kms dbl ffl{y|&del ge|" Id{{uebh d
id{|mb pdy| |cj `e~ebh {mmf, E yjj Id|j |cj{j, |{uebh bm| |m pdu
d||jb|emb" D`fmy| lmbj, Id|j, E |j`` cj{"
Ef umz{ fm|cj{" Id`` fj ku |cd| bdfj, ycj yduy"
E ydu, Fm|cj{"
Fu amk ey |m k{ebh j~j{u|cebh mz| |m |cj id{" Xj`` `mdl e|
d`` zp xcjb Ef lmbj" Cj pd{gjl eb n{mb| mn mz{ kze`lebh dbl
pz| m{dbhj imbjy lmxb mb |cj {mdl mb je|cj{ yelj mn |cj id{
|xm lduy dhm" Bmbj mn |cj bjehckm{y ydel d xm{l dbl cj
dygjl fj bm| |m fdgj d keh ljd`" \cj i`myjbjyy fdgjy e| jdyu
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8/9/2019 Extract: Things We Didn't See Coming by Steven Amsterdam
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|m gjjp d `mmgmz| mb mz{ y|znn xce`j Ef {zbbebh zp dbl
lmxb |cj |xm ehc|y mn y|jpy" Bm mbjy mb |cj y|{jj| xcjb E
y|jp mz|yelj ym E hm zp nm{ dbm|cj{ `mdl"\cj Kjblj{y mb |cj |ce{l mm{ xjb| dxdu |cj ldu kjnm{j
Ic{ey|fdy, kz| Ldl ydel cj xdb|jl |m xde| zb|e` |cj ldu mn
Bjx Ujd{y J~j |m fdsefeqj p{jpd{d|emb" Cj yduy |cey ey d ypj&
ied` bjx ujd{ dbl xj{j |dgebh ypjied` fjdyz{jy" Cj yduy |cey
ujd{ E cd~j |m y|du zp zb|e` dn|j{ felbehc|"
Kjidzyj cjy y|e`` ebyelj m{hdbeqebh kmsjy dbl Id|j ey azy|
|z{bebh pdhjy dbl bm| `mmgebh zp mb pz{pmyj xcjb cj l{dhy
|cjf pdy| cj{, E ljielj |m y|du mz| mn |cje{ xdu" \m cj`p mz|,
|cmzhc, E pdigjl zp d`` |cj kd||j{ejy n{mf d`` fu hdfjy dbl
fu pm{|dk`j {dlem kjidzyj Ldl yduy |cju xmz`l kj zyjnz`"
Xce`j e|y MG nm{ fj |m cm`l |cj gju, Ef bm| d``mxjl |m
y|d{| |cj id{" E |cebg dkmz| |z{bebh e| eb |cj ehbe|emb dbl |cjb
yduebh |cd| E xdy azy| icjigebh |cj nzj` hdzhj, xceic ey d``
{ehc|" Kz| E fehc| hj| eb |{mzk`j kjidzyj E d`{jdlu gbmx cjy
kjjb |m |cj hdy y|d|emb |m ffl`` zp, bm| |m fjb|emb xj~j hm|
|xm keh {jl azhy mn hdy eb |cj kdig mn mz{ y|d|emb xdhmb" Id|j
gbmxy E gbmx dkmz| e| kjidzyj E dygjl cj{" Ycj ydel |m azy| kj
pd|ejb|"
Ef ye||ebh mb |cj id{, hzd{lebh mz{ y|znn dbl yi{d|icebh d|d icep eb |cj fd{mmb pdeb| kj|xjjb fu `jhy, xcjb Fe`m n{mf
lmxby|de{y imfjy mz|" Cj di|y `egj cjy {zbbebh mz| |m hj| |m
|cj y|m{j kjnm{j e| i`myjy" \cjb cj yjjy fj dbl y`mxy lmxb
dbl y|d{|y dygebh tzjy|emby" \cey ey xcd| cj d`xduy lmjy dbl e|
fdgjy fu kdig hm zp `egj d id|" Xcj{j d{j xj hmebh= Cmx
imfj xj{j `jd~ebh= Xcd| df E hmebh |m kj lmebh xe|c fu`dfj h{dblfm|cj{ d| felbehc|= #Cjy |xj`~j dbl ey hmebh |m
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8/9/2019 Extract: Things We Didn't See Coming by Steven Amsterdam
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d pd{|u xe|c n{ejbly"% E dbyxj{ dy tzeig`u dy pmyyek`j, gjjpebh
db juj mb mz{ y|znn, bm| kjidzyj E |cebg Fe`my hmebh |m |dgj e|,
kz| kjidzyj Ef |{uebh |m fflhz{j mz| xcu Ldl pdigjl d`` |cjge|icjb gbe~jy" Id|j yz{j lmjyb| gbmx dkmz| |cd| m{ ycj
xmz`lb| kj gjjpebh ym tzej| {ehc| bmx"
Fe`m fflbd``u yduy xcd| cjy xdb|jl |m ydu yebij cj ydx fj
eb |cj xeblmx dbl idfj lmxby|de{y dbl e|y |cey1 Cey nd|cj{,
xcm xm{gy eb imfpz|j{y, ey hmebh |m fdgj 4;: h{dbl |mbehc|,
kjidzyj cjy hmebh |m y|mp k`digmz|y dbl j~j{u|cebh n{mf
cdppjbebh" Mbij cj |j``y fj |cey, cj cdbhy d{mzbl d febz|j,
`mmgebh d| mz{ yze|idyjy dbl mz{ id{" E| fdgjy |cj y|znn `mmg
kdl ymfjcmx" Cj {deyjy cey jujk{mxy d| fj dbl hmjy kdig
ebyelj" Cj xdyb| hmebh |m |cj y|m{j"
E gbmx xcd| d h{dbl ey kjidzyj Fe`my d`xduy |j``ebh fj
cmx fzic cey nd|cj{ fdgjy #d `m|%" Fu h{dblfm|cj{ ydel
bm| |m zyj |cj xm{l, kjidzyj e| fdgjy fj ymzbl `egj d `e||`j
hdbhy|j{"
Nebd``u, Ldl imfjy mz| l{dhhebh |cj `dy| |cebh, |cj imm`j{,
dbl cjy hm| d kdh mn ~jhj|dk`jy kd`dbijl mb |mp mn e|"
Xj{j k{ebhebh ~jhj|dk`jy |m d nd{f= E dyg"
Azy| he~j fj d cdbl"
Cj lmjyb| ydu fzic dkmz| fu d{{dbhjfjb| mn mz{ y|znnmb |cj y|{jj|, kz| kjheby {ehc| dxdu `mdlebh e|" Cjy hm| |cd|
`mmg |cd| fjdby E ycmz`lb| km|cj{ cef, kz| E |j`` cef xcd|
Fe`m |m`l fj dkmz| |cj 4;: h{dbl" Cj lmjyb| `mmg d| fj kz|
cj `dzhcy dbl dygy fj xcj{j Fe`my nd|cj{ ey hmebh |m kj
xm{gebh |mbehc|" E ydu |cd| E |cebg e|y |cj ydfj p`dij cj zyz&
d``u lmjy, eb db mnfflij lmxb|mxb" Ldl ycdgjy cey cjdl dblyduy, Cjy d ljdl fdb"
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8/9/2019 Extract: Things We Didn't See Coming by Steven Amsterdam
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Id|j y|jpy mz| eb|m |cj imm` de{ xe|c cj{ k{ehc| k`zj
xcjj`ej kdh, xceic `mmgy nzbbu dbl yfd`` imbyelj{ebh xcd|
Ldl ey kzyu i{dffebh eb|m |cj |{zbg" Ycj `mmgy zp dbllmxb |cj k`mig |m yjj xcmy xd|icebh" \cj {jy| mn |cj y|{jj|
`mmgy bm{fd`" E cm`l zp fu ydhhu kdigpdig |m ycmx cj{ cmx
`e||`j Ef k{ebhebh, dbl |cjb ycj |j``y fj |m hj| fu adigj| mb"
Ycj xcjj`y cj{ kdh m~j{ |m Ldl, xcmy y|eigebh idby mn |zbd
fflyc d{mzbl d`` mn mz{ y|znn" Id|j y|d{jy d| cef `egj ycjy
xd|icebh d lmh lehhebh d cm`j |cd|y xdu |mm ljjp"
Ycj hj|y {jd``u i`myj |m cef dbl dygy, Umz yz{j umz lmb|
xdb| |m azy| y|eig d{mzbl dbl gbmig m~j{ d kdbg xcjb |cebhy
hj| i{dqu=
Cj `dzhcy `egj cj lmjyb| |cebg e|y nzbbu"
Cmx idb umz gbmig m~j{ d kdbg= E dyg"
Ycj yfe`jy dbl |j``y fj ycjy imzb|ebh mb fj |m kj |cj
mb`u ydbj pj{ymb |mbehc| dbl pmyyek`u eb|m |cj bjs| ijb|z{u" E
dyg cj{ dhdeb cmx umz idb gbmig m~j{ d kdbg, kz| ycj y|d{|y
cj`pebh Ldl" E y|{j|ic mz| mb |cj kdigyjd| ym E idb `ey|jb |m
|cjf"
Id|j yduy, \cj{jy bm {jdymb |m kj y|{jyyjl {ehc| bmx"
Xj{j d`` |mhj|cj{" Xj{j lmebh j~j{u|cebh |m p{m|ji| mz{&
yj`~jy" Xj{j |dgebh d`` |cj p{jidz|emby umz xdb|jl"Cj gjjpy pdigebh"
Dn|j{ |cju fflbeyc dbl Ldl ljieljy E idb kj |{zy|jl xe|c |cj
febe&n{elhj bjs| |m fj #\cd| nmml ey bm| nm{ |mbehc|, e|y nm{
|cj `mbh cdz`%, xj hj| mb |cj {mdl azy| dy |cj yzb ey y|d{|ebh
|m hm lmxb"
Ldl lmlhjy id{y tzeigj{ |cdb zyzd` dy xj fdgj mz{ xdu|c{mzhc y|{jj|y mn l{jyyjl&zp pjmp`j, ymfj d`{jdlu l{zbg" Eb
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8/9/2019 Extract: Things We Didn't See Coming by Steven Amsterdam
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d njx febz|jy, xj yxebh zp mb|m |cj jsp{jyyxdu" Id|j yduy,
Bm| fzic |{dnffli nm{ lmmfyldu"
Idb umz p`jdyj `j| zp mb |cj yd{idyf=Id|j ycz|y lmxb dbl bmkmlu yduy dbu|cebh nm{ d xce`j"
Xcjb xj{j mz| mn |cj ie|u, ycj pz|y mb |cj {dlem" _{j||u
ymmb, xj{j mb imzb|{u {mdly, fm{j |cdb cd`nxdu |cj{j" Mb
|cj {dlem, pjmp`j eb @mblmb d{j hj||ebh {jdlu nm{ d xe`l pd{|u"
E ydu |cd| e|y h{jd| |cd| mbj behc| idb fdgj pjmp`j cd~j nzb
d`` m~j{ |cj xm{`l" Ycj dh{jjy dbl yduy |m Ldl, @mblmb
K{elhj y|e`` yjjfy |m kj y|dblebh" \cd|y d hmml yehb, eyb| e|=
\cey fdgjy Ldl tzej| dbl dbh{u" Ycj `mmgy d| cey ndij nm{
cd`n d febz|j, |cjb `mmgy mz| |cj xeblmx" Xj qep pdy| nd{fy
|cd| d{j ld{g dbl nd{fy xe|c `ehc|y mb dbl id{y pd{gjl d``
m~j{ |cje{ l{e~jxduy"
Ldl, |d`gebh `egj ycjy bm| |cj{j, |j``y fj |cd| |cj xm{`l
ey `d{hj dbl imfp`eid|jl, xe|c |mm fdbu pd{|y {j`uebh mb
m|cj{ pd{|y dbl |cju d`` mi|mpzy mz|" \cjb cj y|d{|y |d`g&
ebh `egj cjy x{e|ebh mbj mn cey `j||j{y |m |cj jle|m{, hmebh
eb|m y|znn E lmb| zblj{y|dbl kz| cd~j cjd{l d `m| mn |efjy
kjnm{j" Mz{ eb|j{ljpjbljbij ey zbp{jijljb|jl eb cey|m{u"
E|y nmm`eyc"
E xeyc E xdy mb d p`dbj m~j{ j~j{u|cebh" Xjl kj uebhxjy|, hmebh |c{mzhc d`` |cj Bjx Ujd{y J~jy, `mmgebh lmxb
azy| dy |cju cdppjb" El cd~j |m y|du dxdgj nm{ |xjb|u&nmz{
cmz{y mn behc||efj, kz| El kj `mmgebh mz| |cj `e||`j xeblmx
dbl xd|icebh {epp`jy mn ffl{jxm{gy kj`mx, jdic xd~j hmebh mnn
zblj{ zy dy xj u m~j{ e|" E y|d{| |m |d`g dkmz| |cey, kz| |cjb
ljielj |m yd~j e| nm{ H{dblfd" Ldl lmjyb| |cebg p`dbjy d{jydnj |mbehc| je|cj{"
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8/9/2019 Extract: Things We Didn't See Coming by Steven Amsterdam
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Id|j pz|y cj{ cdbl kjcebl Ldly cjdl |m ytzjjqj cey
bjig, xceic fjdby ycj xdb|y |m cj`p cef" Xcd| j`yj idb xj
lm nm{ umz, kdkj= Xj{j yj| en dbu|cebh hmjy x{mbh" En e|lmjyb|, xj`` cd~j d tzej| behc| mn e| xe|c fu pd{jb|y" E|y d``
{ehc| bmx" D`` {ehc|= Ycj `mmgy d| fj ym E idb d`ym |j`` cef
|cd| xj`` kj ydnj" E bml |m fjdb ujy, kz| lmb| ydu dbu|cebh
mz| `mzl kjidzyj Ef bm| yz{j en e|y xcd| cj xdb|y fj |m ydu
m{ en e|y j~jb |{zj"
Xcd| lm umz |cebg= Cj `mmgy d| fj |c{mzhc |cj
{jd{~ejx fe{{m{" Xj km|c cd~j h{jjb jujy" Ymfj|efjy, cj
yduy, e|y `egj `mmgebh eb d fe{{m{"
Azy| |cjb, xj kzfp eb|m |cj id{ dcjdl mn zy" Bm| d keh
kzfp, d |mzic, jbmzhc |m yid{j j~j{ukmlu" Ef bm| xjd{ebh d
yjd| kj`| ym E hj| gbmigjl eb|m |cj kdig mn Ldly yjd| dbl d
idb mn |zbd fflyc ycmm|y m~j{ mb|m fu yjd|" E|y bm|cebh yj{e&
mzy" Id|j {jdicjy cj{ cdbl kdig |m fj dbl h{dky fu gbjj |m
fdgj yz{j Ef d`` {ehc|" Mbij e| cdppjby E {jd`eqj |cd| xce`j E
xdy `mmgebh d| Ldl E d`ym ydx |cj id{ y`mxebh lmxb eb n{mb|
mn zy, kz| e| d`` cdppjbjl ym ndy| E imz`lb| j~jb id`` mz| nm{ zy
|m y|mp"
\cj id{ xj ce| pz``y mb|m |cj h{d~j` dbl xj nm``mx i`myj
kjcebl `egj d gel |{de`ebh d |jdicj{ |m |cj p{ebiepd`y mnfflij"Ldl yduy, Yce|$ dbl pzbicjy |cj kz||mb |m |z{b mnn |cj
{dlem"
Id|j yzlljb`u `j|y cef cd~j e|"Lmb| k`dfj |cj {dlem" E|y
kjidzyj umz~j kjjb ym pd{dbmel dbl yid||j{jl |cd| |cey cdp&
pjbjl" Cj{j ycjy |d`gebh dkmz| ymfj|cebh j`yj" Xj`` hj|
|c{mzhc |cj m|cj{ yelj dbl p{mfeyj fj |cd| umz`` kj kj||j{=_{mfeyj fj" Cj lmjyb| ydu dbu|cebh" Ycj yebgy kdig dbl
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8/9/2019 Extract: Things We Didn't See Coming by Steven Amsterdam
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yduy |m cj{yj`n, E| xmz`l azy| kj ym beij en |cebhy xmz`l xm{g
dhdeb"
E dyg, Xcd| lmjyb| xm{g, Id|j=J~jb fdllj{ bmx, ycj dygy Ldl xcu Ef bm| id``ebh cef
ku cey ffl{y| bdfj"
Ym E ydu cey bdfj, M|ey, dbl |cd| fdgjy cef `dzhc"
Ldl yduy |m cj{, Idb| umz azy| kj mb fu yelj |mbehc|=
Xj xmz`lb| cd~j ce| |cd| id{ en cj cdlb| kjjb `mmgebh d|
fj, kz| E gjjp fu fmz|c ycz|"
Ldl |z{by mnn |cj jbhebj" Nebd``u, d xmfdb hj|y mz| mn |cj
m|cj{ id{" Ycjy bm| yfd``, dbl ycjy kzbl`jl zp eb d `m| mn
i`m|cjy" Mz{ id{ lmjyb| `mmg dbu kj||j{ |cdb cj{y, kz| d| `jdy|
xj~j hm| cjd|"
Id|j yduy, dhdeb, |m cj{yj`n, D xmfdb l{e~ebh d`mbj mb
Bjx Ujd{y J~j"
E ydu, Fdukj ycjy hmebh |m d pd{|u"
Bm, `mmg d| cj{" Ycjy bm| hmebh |m d pd{|u"
\cj xmfdb {zky cj{ cdbly d`mbh |cj ljb| mb cj{
kzfpj{, |cjb ycj `mmgy {ehc| d| Ldl" Cj `mmgy lmxb d| cey
`dp dbl id|icjy cey k{jd|c"E idb| kj`ej~j E lel |cey"
Lmb| fdgj e| d kehhj{ ljd " Azy| |d`g |m |cj xmfdb, Id|j
yduy" \cjb ycj {jdicjy cj{ cdbl kdig |m cm`l febj dbl|j``y fj, Mbij xj{j d| H{dblfd dbl H{dblpdy, e|`` kj
tzej|" Xj idb yjj y|d{y dbl azy| xd|ic |cj ffl{jp`dij |e`` xj nd``
dy`jjp"
\e`` felbehc|, E im{{ji| cj{" E lmb| |cebg E febl feyy&
ebh Bjx Ujd{y J~j eb |cj ie|u" Xj`` hj| zp jd{`u kjidzyj
H{dblfd xe`` xdgj j~j{umbj zp ku i`d||j{ebh eb |cj ge|icjb,|e`` xj d`` ycmx zp |m gjjp cj{ imfpdbu" \cjb ycj`` xcep zp
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8/9/2019 Extract: Things We Didn't See Coming by Steven Amsterdam
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pdbidgjy dbl `j| fj y|eig |cj k`zjkj{{ejy eb|m |cj kd||j{ mbij
ycjy pmz{jl e| mb|m |cj pdb" Ldl xe`` kj n{ejbl`u kz| gebl mn
tzej| zb|e` e|y |efj |m `jd~j kjidzyj |cju{j bm| cey pd{jb|y"Zb`jyy, mn imz{yj, |cj xm{`l lmjy jbl |mbehc|, eb xceic idyj
cj`` kj eb icd{hj mn d`` mn zy"
Ldl cdyb| fdlj d fm~j uj|" \cj xmfdb y|d{|y {zkkebh
cj{ cjdl xe|c cj{ cdbly j~jb |cmzhc e|y bm| e|icebh, |cj xdu
Ldl lmjy xcjb cjy gjjpebh ymfj|cebh eb m{ dkmz| |m
jsp`mlj" Ycjy bm| hmebh |m kj pd|ejb| xe|c cef, xcd|j~j{ cey
jsizyj" E yjj cef eb |cj n{mb| yjd|, yjjebh xcd| E yjj dy cj
xd|icjy cj{" E|y `egj xj{j `mmgebh d| |cj ydfj pj{ymb xe|c
|cj ydfj jujy" Cj |z{by cey cjdl {ehc| dbl `jn|, icjigebh mz|
|cj jfp|u {mdl d{mzbl zy"
@j|y hm" Ldl y|d{|y |cj id{"
Xcd| d{j umz lmebh= Id|j ey uj``ebh"
\cj{j eyb| |efj"
Dy cj pz``y mnn pdy| cj{, |cj xmfdb xd|icjy zy, y|zbbjl"
Ycj y`dpy cj{ yeljy dbl azy| y|d{jy d| |cj kdig mn mz{ id{ dy xj
kzfp zp kdig mb|m |cj {mdl"
Ldl, E |cebg ycjy fjfm{eqebh mz{ p`d|j"
E idb| kj`ej~j |cd| umz xmz`l kj yzic dId|j xdb|y |m
ydu ymfj|cebh xm{yj, kz| Ef eb |cj id{aj{g |m d |m|d`y|{dbhj{" Umz~j lmbj d ce| dbl {zb"
Xcd|= Xj lel y|mp" Ycjy MG" Ycj idb xd`g"
Id|j ey {migebh eb cj{ yjd| ycjy ym dbh{u" E idb| kj`ej~j
|cey" Dbl bmx umz~j fdlj zy umz{ diimfp`eijy"
Id|j ey lmbj, ycjy ndiebh nm{xd{l" E idb| ljnjbl |cey
d| d``"
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8/9/2019 Extract: Things We Didn't See Coming by Steven Amsterdam
9/22
Cd~j E dygjl umz |m= Ldl azy| l{e~jy mb eb|m |cj ld{g
y|e`` ndy|, xe|c |cey xje{l Ef&bm|&j~jb&ym{{u `mmg"
Id|j |z{by cj{ cjdl dbl yduy |m fj, E lmb| xdb| umz |m`jd{b mbj |cebh n{mf |mbehc|" Bm| dkmz| cmx |m imblzi|
umz{yj`n lz{ebh |efjy mn y|{jyy, bm| dkmz| cmx |m {jypji|
m|cj{ pjmp`j, bm| dkmz| cmx |m fdbdhj umz{ mxb ebydbj
xm{{ejy" E xdb| umz |m `mmg mz| |cj xeblmx dbl xd|ic |cj
|{jjy hm ku, kjidzyj |cd|y xcd| E eb|jbl |m lm"
Ldl |dpy |cj xcjj` d njx |efjy xe|c cey fflbhj{|epy |m gjjp
n{mf yduebh dbu|cebh"
H{dblfd ey xde|ebh mb |cj pd|ic mn h{dyy eb n{mb| mn |cje{
cmzyj, k{zycebh cj{ cde{, xceic d`xduy `mmgy ym `mbh xcjb
ycjy cm`lebh e| y|{dehc| mz|" Mb |mp mn cj{ h{jjb l{jyy, xceic
ycj yduy cdy kjjb cj{ nd~m{e|j nm{ yes|u ujd{y, ycjy xjd{ebh
cj{ h{du xmm` imd|" Xcjb ycj yjjy e|y zy imfebh d{mzbl |cj
iz{~j, ycj pz|y |cj k{zyc eb cj{ imd| pmigj| dbl xd`gy mz| |m
|cj {mdl, xd~ebh zy eb dy en Ldl xmz`lb| gbmx cmx |m fflbl
|cj l{e~jxdu xe|cmz| cj{"
Dy |cj id{ y|mpy, H{dblfd {zky cj{ cdbly |mhj|cj{ nm{
xd{f|c dbl kjidzyj ycjy hj||ebh {jdlu nm{ d czh" Id|j kzy|ymz| mn |cj id{ `egj ycjy {zbbebh mz| mn msuhjb"
H{dblfd |c{mxy cj{ d{fy d{mzbl cj{, ytzjjqjy |ehc| dbl
he~jy fj d xebg"
E i`efk mz| dbl H{dblfd h{dky fj ku fu jd{y nm{ d geyy
mb |cj nm{jcjdl dbl km|c icjjgy" Fu kjdb" E|y dn|j{ jehc|
mi`mig" Umz{j `zigu e|y Bjx Ujd{y m{ El d`{jdlu kj ybm{ebh"
44
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8/9/2019 Extract: Things We Didn't See Coming by Steven Amsterdam
10/22
Lm umz gbmx cmx `mbh E~j kjjb xde|ebh cj{j, k{zycebh dbl
k{zycebh= Yebij `zbic|efj, fdukj k{jdgndy|" E|y d xmblj{
E~j y|e`` hm| cde{ mb fu cjdl, fzic `jyy njj ebh eb fu fflbhj{y"Ycj cm`ly fj |ehc|" \cjb ycj yjjy |cj kdig mn mz{ id{" Xcd|
eb |cj xm{`l lel umz pdig= Lel umz |cebg E xmz`lb| cd~j pz|
eb nmml=
Id|j kmzbijy |cj tzjy|emb |m Ldl xe|c d xd~j mn cj{ cdbl
dbl xd`gy |mxd{l |cj n{mb| y|jpy, xcj{j H{dblpdy azy| imfj
mz| mn |cj cmzyj"
Ldly y|dblebh ku |cj yelj mn |cj id{, tzej| dbl bm| `mmg&
ebh nm{ d czh" E|y fm{j |cdb nmml" _dpj{y dbl |cebhy" Azy| eb
idyj"
Azy| eb idyj= ycj dygy"
Xj{j p{jpd{jl, E |j`` cj{, p{mzl`u"
Nm{ xcd|, jsdi|`u=
Nm{ j~j{u|cebh |m nd`` dpd{| n{mf eb|j{ljpjbljbij, E
|j`` cj{"
Mmc, |cd| ymzbly zbp`jdydb|" Ey |cd| xcd|y eb y|m{j=
E |cebg ymfj|cebh xe`` cdppjb, kz| E |j`` cj{, Fdukj"
Ycj y|{j|icjy cj{ d{fy mz| |m d ygu nz`` mn y|d{y dbl
k{jd|cjy ljjp`u, zb|e` cj{ k{jd|c |z{by eb|m d `mzl, zb`dlu`egj
udxb" \cj{j" E hzjyy |cd|y xcd| E |cebg dkmz| fdukj" D{jumz czbh{u=
E bml"
Hmml, ycj yduy dbl ycm~jy fj eb H{dblpdy le{ji|emb,
kz| E y|du |m xd|ic"
Ycj `mmgy d| Ldl, xcmy y|e`` y|dblebh mb |cj m|cj{ yelj mn
|cj id{"D{j umz xj``=
4;
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8/9/2019 Extract: Things We Didn't See Coming by Steven Amsterdam
11/22
Ef xj``"
Xe`` xj d`` kj jd|ebh lebbj{ |mhj|cj{ |mbehc|=
E|y kjjb d ke| mn d ldu nm{ zy" Ef dn{del Ef bm| mb kmd{l"Kz| |cdbgy"
\cey y|ebgy" Ldly bm| hmebh |m dpm`mheqj" Cj`` celj mz| eb
|cje{ {mmf d`` behc| dbl |cj |c{jj mn zy xmb| kj d`` |mhj|cj{
d| felbehc|"
H{dblfd pz|y cj{ cdbly mb fu ycmz`lj{y dbl |j``y Ldl,
Zbpdig xcd|j~j{y bjijyyd{u dbl imfj ebyelj kjnm{j |cj
bjx ujd{ y|d{|y dbl j~j{u|cebh k{jdgy eb|m |ebu pejijy"
H{dblpdy |j``ebh H{dblfd, Id|j dbl fj cmx mbj Bjx Ujd{y
J~j |cju eb~e|jl pjmp`j |m d pd{|u dbl |cj behc| xdy ym im`l
|cd| bm| mbj pj{ymb ycmxjl zp" H{dblfd id``jl d`` |cje{
n{ejbly |cj bjs| ldu dbl nm{ijl |cjf |m imfj ku nm{ `zbic |m
jd| |cj jbm{fmzy cdf ycjl fdlj" H{dblfd xdy ym pj{yzd&
ye~j dbl ym fdbu pjmp`j idfj |cd| |cju {db mz| mn nmml
kjnm{j |xm eb |cj dn|j{bmmb" Xj~j d`` cjd{l |cey kjnm{jdbl
H{dblfd `e~jl e|kz| ye||ebh xe|c |cjf eb |cj `e~ebh {mmf
|mbehc|, jd|ebh pmpim{b dbl xd|icebh |cj ffl{j, cjd{ebh |cj
y|m{u dhdeb njj`y hmml"\cj i`mig mb |cj `mx kmmgycj`n bjs| |m |cj ge|icjb lmm{&
xdu ey czffebh `mzl`u dbl yduebh |cj{jy fm{j |cdb |xm
cmz{y zb|e` felbehc|" E|y |cj ydfj ndljl k`zj p`dy|ei i`mig
|cd| H{dblpd id{{ejy xe|c cef j~j{uxcj{j" Xcjb cj |dgjy d
bdp, cj pz|y e| lmxb bjs| |m cef" Xcjb cjy xm{gebh mz|yelj,
cj p{mpy e| zp mb |cj pm{ic" E| {zby mb kd||j{ejy dbl cj k{ebhy
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8/9/2019 Extract: Things We Didn't See Coming by Steven Amsterdam
12/22
e| |m mz{ cmzyj xcjb cj imfjy |m ~eye| dy en e|y |cj mb`u i`mig
cj idb |{zy|"
H{dblfd fflbeycjy ku yduebh, \cd| y|m{u, ku |cj xdu, ey d`jyymb nm{ zy d`` |cd| ycmxy umz bj~j{ gbmx xcd| xdu Bjx
Ujd{y J~j ey hmebh |m |z{b mz|" Imfj felbehc|, d`` xj fehc|
cd~j ey |cj `ehc| n{mf |cey ffl{j" \cjb cmx xe`` xj `mmg=
H{dblpd yduy, Xj`` kj mbj czbl{jl pj{ijb| fflbj" E
kmzhc| d kms mn idbl`jy |cj m|cj{ ldu" Dbl cjd~jb gbmxy
umz xmb| `j| zy hm czbh{u" Bm|cebhy hmebh |m kj lennj{jb| eb
|cj fm{bebh"
Kz| umz lmb| gbmx j~j{u|cebh dkmz| imfpz|j{y, E ydu
|m cef"
\cey hj|y d `mmg n{mf j~j{umbj" E |d`gjl kdig kjidzyj E
cdl |m, kjidzyj e|y |{zj"
H{dblpd ye|y kdig eb cey icde{, y|eigy cey |czfky zblj{ cey
d{fy dbl yfe`jy" Eb ndi|, E lm" Fm{j |m |cj pmeb|, e| lmjyb|
fd||j{"
Yj{emzy bmx, H{dblfd pz|y cj{ cdbly eb n{mb| mn cj{ `epy
`egj ycjy hmebh |m p{du dbl yduy |m fj, Xcu lmb| umz hj|
umz{ nd|cj{= \cj{jy bm {jdymb nm{ cef bm| |m kj xe|c zy"
Id|j |c{mxy cj{ cdbly zp, xceic fjdby E idb lm xcd| E
xdb|"E hm |m |cje{ {mmf dbl e|y ld{g" Ldl= Bm"
E hm lmxb |cj cd``, `mmgebh eb d`` |cj {mmfy, kz| cj eyb|
dbuxcj{j" \cjb, eb azy| fu ymigy, E cjdl mz| |cj kdig lmm{
eb|m |cj ud{l dbl d`mbh |cj n{mb| mn |cj cmzyj" \c{mzhc |cj
xeblmx, E yjj Id|j, H{dblfd dbl H{dblpd ebyelj, d`` ye||ebh
y|e``, bmkmlu yduebh dbu|cebh" E|y cd{l |m |j`` en |cju{j km{jlm{ en |cju{j xcd| H{dblfd id``y tzej|`u imb|jb|" Ldly bm|
4
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8/9/2019 Extract: Things We Didn't See Coming by Steven Amsterdam
13/22
eb n{mb| mn |cj pm{ic je|cj{, xceic E idb| hj| i`myj |m m{ j`yj
|cj `ehc| xe`` hm mb"
E xd`g mz| |m |cj id{" \cj h{dyy cdy hm||jb ldfp dblice``jl dbl d`fmy| eiu n{mf |cj behc| de{, ym e| i{zbicjy
zblj{ fu njj|" \cj id{y cd`n zbpdigjl" E hm d `e||`j xdu mb|m
|cj {mdl eb n{mb| mn |cj cmzyj dbl `mmg nm{ dbu|cebh fm~ebh
eb |cj ld{g" Ldl= E|y tzej| dbl |cj im`l ey y|d{|ebh |m {jdic
fu |mjy"
Xcjb E imfj kdig ebyelj d`mbj, E y|dbl eb |cj cd`` nm{ d
febz|j |m xd{f zp" E `mmg eb fu pd{jb|y {mmf dhdeb dbl
|z{b mb |cj `ehc|" E|y azy| |cje{ m~j{behc| kdhy mb |cj kjl |cd|
H{dblfdy fdlj zp pj{nji|`u, xe|c d `e||`j kmztzj| mn cm``u
mb |cj pe``mx, dy en |cey ey ymfj ndbiu cm|j`"
E h{dk fu yxjd|yce{| dbl pz| e| mb, j~jb pz`` |cj cmml zp"
E cjdl kdig |m |cj `e~ebh {mmf dbl |j`` j~j{umbj, Cj xdb|y
|m kj ku cefyj`n |mbehc|"
Nebj, Id|j yduy"Cj`` kj kj||j{ mnn" Cjl xm{{u zy nm{ |cj
{jy| mn |cj j~jbebh" @j| cef {jy|"
H{dblfd lmjyb| dpp{m~j" Bmkmluy kj||j{ mnn ku |cjf&
yj`~jy xcjb |cju{j `egj cj ey"
H{dblpd jbly e|, xe|c Xcd| ey cj ym xm{{ejl dkmz|= E|y
d`xduy kjjb |cj jbl mn |cj xm{`l" Xcd| lel xj cd~j |ceyijb|z{u= Xm{`l Xd{ E, |cj ebzjbqd, |cj Ljp{jyyemb, Xm{`l
Xd{ EE, imbijb|{d|emb idfpy, |cj d|mfei kmfk" Bmx cjy
yid{jl dkmz| d imfpz|j{ h`e|ic= D k`digmz|= @j|y hm dkmz|
mz{ kzyebjyy" Xj`` jbamu mz{ cm| icmim`d|j xe|c Kde`juy" Cj
gbmxy xcd| cjy feyyebh dbl idb imfj eb cj{j xcjbj~j{ cj
`egjy"E xdb| |cj cm| icmim`d|j xe|c Kde`juy" @dy| ujd{ E feyyjl e|
4:
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8/9/2019 Extract: Things We Didn't See Coming by Steven Amsterdam
14/22
kjidzyj E nj`` dy`jjp mb |cj imzic |mm jd{`u" \cj p{mk`jf bmx
ey E p{mfeyjl Ldl E xmz`l kj xe|c cef xcjb e| |z{by |xj`~j
mi`mig"Xj p`du Yi{dkk`j7 H{dblfd xeby" Id|j lmjyb| yjjf |m kj
|cebgebh dkmz| Ldl" \cj{jy d `e||`j fflhc| dkmz| xcj|cj{ |cj
\^ ycmz`l kj |z{bjl mb dbl j~j{umbj ljieljy e|y kj||j{ bm|
|m" \cju ydu |cd| xj ycmz`l jbamu xcj{j xj d{j dbl bm| xeyc
xj{j eb |cj ie|u" M{ fdukj |cju{j yid{jl mn xcd| |cju fehc|
yjj cdppjbebh en d`` |cj `ehc|y hm mz| #dbl |cjb |cj \^ xmz`l
hm mz| |mm%"
Xj `mmg mz| d| |cj fmmb eby|jdl" Xj idb yjj |cj |mpy mn
ymfj ffl{jxm{gy fe`jy dxdu xcjb |cju pmp zp eb d njx p`dijy
dkm~j |cj nm{jy|" E `jd~j |cj m|cj{y d| |cj xeblmx dbl cjdl
eb|m |cj ge|icjb nm{ d h`dyy mn fe`g" Xcjb bm mbjy `mmgebh, E
|dgj |cj dyc`ehc| mz| n{mf zblj{ |cj yebg" \cj cmmlejy keh
jbmzhc ym |cd| xe|c mbj cdbl eb fu pmigj| E idb cm`l |cj
dyc`ehc| y|jdlu zblj{bjd|c dbl |cju xmb| gbmx"
E imfj kdig mz| |m |cjf, udxbebh d `m| dbl yduebh Ef
y`jjpu" H{dblpd |j``y fj bm| |m iceigjb mz|" Cj dygy fj en E
xdb| |m cj`p fdgj |cj cm| icmim`d|j dbl E |j`` cef Ef azy|
|mm |e{jl" Cj ycdgjy cey cjdl, kz| H{dblfd he~jy fj d czh
dbl |j``y fj, E|y hmml |cd| umz gbmx umz{yj`n ym xj``" Hm |mkjl" Xj`` ffls zp ymfj fm{j eb |cj fm{bebh, dbhj`, dn|j{
xj~j cdl k{jdgndy|"
\cdbgy"
Id|j mnnj{y |m xdgj fj d| felbehc|" Umz~j kjjb `mmgebh
nm{xd{l |m |cey"
E|y MG"
4>
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8/9/2019 Extract: Things We Didn't See Coming by Steven Amsterdam
15/22
Umz bjjl d |zig eb=
E udxb fm{j dbl ydu, E| xmb| kj xm{|c e|, xceic fdgjy
j~j{ukmlu `dzhc"E pdl mnn |m fu {mmf, fdgebh yz{j |cj lmm{ |m fu pd{jb|y
jfp|u {mmf ey i`myjl"
E y|dyc |cj dyc`ehc| eb |cj pmigj| mn fu pdb|y, pz| mb fu
cjd~ejy| ymigy, i`efk eb|m kjl dbl xde|" Dy jspji|jl, Id|j
imfjy eb" E p{j|jbl |m kj nd``ebh dy`jjp xce`j ycj |d`gy |m fj"
D{j umz bm| y|duebh zp kjidzyj Ldly nz`` mn xm{{ejy=
Bm"
D{j umz xm{{ejl dkmz| dbu|cebh= Dkmz| |mbehc|=
Bm"
Xmz`l umz |j`` fj en umz xj{j= Ycj yfe`jy kjnm{j E lm"
Bj~j{"
Ycj |c{mxy zp cj{ cdbly, E~j `my| cef d`{jdlu" \cj kmu
xmb| |d`g |m cey fm|cj{" Ycj geyyjy fu bmyj dbl |z{by mz|
|cj `ehc| dy ycj `jd~jy" Cdppu Bjx Ujd{"
Yjj umz bjs| ujd{, E |j`` cj{"
Yjj umz bjs| ujd{, ycj yduy dbl y|jpy mz| eb|m |cj cd``&
xdu" Ycj lmjyb| j~jb y`mx lmxb xcjb ycj pdyyjy |cje{ {mmf"
Ycj |cebgy ycjy y|e`` `jd~ebh cef d`mbj nm{ l{e~ebh mnn dn|j{ xj
ce| |cd| id{" Hmml"Id|j hmjy kdig |m |cj `e~ebh {mmf |m cd~j cm| icmim`d|j
xe|c cj{ pd{jb|y" E xmblj{ en ymfj|efjy ycj p{jnj{y azy|
kjebh xe|c |cjf dbl bm| cd~ebh Ldl dbl fj d{mzbl" Fdukj
e|y yefp`j{ dbl {jfebly cj{ mn kjebh `e||`j dhdeb"
E pz| mb dbbj` pdb|y, kmm|y dbl |cj ycdhhu k`zj yxjd|j{
H{dblfd fdlj fj nm{ Ic{ey|fdy" H`m~jy mb, E |z{b |cj
48
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8/9/2019 Extract: Things We Didn't See Coming by Steven Amsterdam
16/22
lmm{gbmk xe|cmz| fdgebh d i eig dbl |ep|mj eb|m |cj cd``xdu,
xd`gebh dxdu n{mf |cj `ehc| mn |cj `e~ebh {mmf, |mxd{l |cj
kdig lmm{"\cj dyc`ehc| fdgjy mb`u db m{dbhj h`mx mb |cj h{mzbl,
xceic lmjyb| cj`p dy fzic dy |cj xd{f|c mn gjjpebh fu
cdbl eb fu pmigj|, ym E `jd~j e| mb |cj cmml mn |cj id{"
Fu jujy dlazy| |m |cj fmmb`ehc| dy E i`efk zp |cj {migu
pd|c |cd| `jdly eb|m |cj nm{jy|" @mmgebh kdig, kjnm{j |cj |{jjy
yxd``mx zp j~j{u|cebh, E idb yjj fm{j ffl{jxm{gy bmx, kz|
|cju{j y|e`` yid||j{jl dbl nd{ dxdu, mb`u fdgebh `e||`j pznn
ymzbly" E cjdl d`mbh |cj |{de` |cd| H{dblpd cdy kjjb xd`gebh
nm{ ujd{y, |cj mbj cj zyjy nm{ im``ji|ebh xmml nm{ ffl{j"
E gbmx jsdi|`u xcj{j Ldl ey dbl E gbmx cjy xde|ebh
nm{ fj" Xcjb xj xj{j cegebh `dy| yzffj{ xj nmzbl d p`dij
bm| nd{ n{mf |cj fdeb |{de` xcj{j |c{jj |{jjy cdl imfj
lmxb" \cju cdl y|mml bjs| |m jdic m|cj{, kz| cdl jdic nd`&
`jb eb d lennj{jb| le{ji|emb, ym |cju fdlj d bm|&ym&keh |{edb&
h`j mb |cj h{mzbl" Ldl xmblj{jl en ymfjmbj cdl gbmigjl
|cjf lmxb `egj |cey |m fdgj d celebh p`dij, kz| |cju d``
`mmgjl `egj |cju nj`` bd|z{d``u dbl |cj |{edbh`j xdy fdlj
ku icdbij" Xj yd| ebyelj |cey bd|z{d` nm{|, `jdbebh kdig
dhdeby| |xm im{bj{y, xe|c mz{ kdigpdigy yj| eb |cj |ce{l,yxd||ebh nd| Dzhzy| ejy xe|c mz{ cdbly xce`j |{uebh |m jd|
mz{ ydblxeicjy"
E {jfjfkj{ yduebh, \cey ey p{mkdk`u |cj ydnjy| p`dij eb
|cj xm{`l"
Ldl yfe`jl dbl dh{jjl" En dbu|cebh j~j{ hmjy x{mbh, `j|y
ydu |cd| xj`` fjj| cj{j" J~jb en xj{j nd{ dxdu, xj`` fdgj mz{xdu |m |cey jsdi| ypm| |m fflbl jdic m|cj{"
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8/9/2019 Extract: Things We Didn't See Coming by Steven Amsterdam
17/22
Ljd`"
Xd`gebh mb |cj |{de` |mbehc|, Ef |cebgebh fu mxb
|cmzhc|y" \cj ffl{y| ey E cd~j |m hj| |m Ldl ku felbehc|, xceic,azlhebh ku |cj bzfkj{ mn ffl{jxm{gy hmebh mnn bmx, fzy| kj
hj||ebh i`myj" E~j kjjb cj{j eb |cj ld{g kjnm{j, kz| bj~j{ ku
fuyj`n" \cey fdgjy fj fm~j ndy|j{ |mm"
\cj yjimbl ey dkmz| cmx Ldl l{m~j mnn n{mf |cd| xmfdb"
Id|j xdy ym fdl ycj lelb| j~jb |j`` H{dblfd dbl H{dblpd
dkmz| e|" Dyelj n{mf pd{gebh |eigj|y, cjy bj~j{ k{mgjb |cj
`dx" Cj lel e| kjidzyj cj xdy eb d cz{{u |m hj| zy mz| cj{j dbl
cj ydx |cd| |cd| xmfdb xdy eb dy keh d {zyc dy zy" Ym bmx
Id|j ey ydnj eb |cj cmzyj, cjy ydnj eb |cj nm{| dbl Ef ydnj cj{j
xd`gebh |c{mzhc |cj xmmly"
E lm njj` ydnj7 Ef bm| yid{jl" E|y azy| k`digbjyy n{mf |cj
|{jjy, xceic ymfjcmx d`` `mmgy pz{p`j xe|c |cj `ehc| n{mf |cj
fmmb" E|y `egj bm|cebhy cj{j kjyeljy fjbm ypelj{y, bm
ljj{" J~j{u|cebh ey dy`jjp m{ celljb m{ ymfjp`dij j`yj, bm|
|cebgebh dkmz| Bjx Ujd{y J~j d| d``"
\cj |z{bmnn ey ymfjxcj{j i`myj" Cj{j"
Dy E fdgj fu xdu eb, |cj k{dbicjy yjjf |m ybdp kdig jdy&
e`u, m{ fdukj Ef pzycebh cd{lj{ kjidzyj Ef d `e||`j ke|
yid{jl"En e| d`` imfjy lmxb `egj Ldl yduy, |cj ypelj{y dbl ljj{
xe`` njj` |cey Bjx Ujd{y J~j, |cd|y nm{ yz{j" Ljpjblebh mb
cmx `mbh e| |dgjy |m hj| |cebhy fflsjl, j~j{umbj xe`` imfj mz|
cj{j `mmgebh nm{ n{jyc xd|j{, nm{ {jd` nmml |cd| lmjyb| imfj
n{mf d |{zig" _jmp`j xe`` fflbd``u {jd`eqj |cd| |cju~j kjjb
jspji|ebh |mm fzic n{mf d n{dhe`j yuy|jf" Id|j yduy, En cjxdb|y zy |m fm~j dxdu |m |cj imzb|{u cj ycmz`l azy| ydu
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8/9/2019 Extract: Things We Didn't See Coming by Steven Amsterdam
18/22
ym, bm| pz| zy |c{mzhc |cey l{dfd" Cj yduy cj lmjyb| xdb|
|m fm~j, cjy azy| |cebgebh ljnjbye~j`u" Xceic fzy| kj xcd|
cj xdy lmebh xcjb cj `jn| |cd| xmfdb y|dblebh ku cj{ id{"Kz| E kj| ycj l{m~j dxdu fdl" Fdukj ycjy ymfjxcj{j ydnj
bmx |mm, xd|icebh ffl{jxm{gy m{ d ffl{jp`dij m{ azy| y|e`` mb
|cj yelj mn |cj {mdl |cj{j, xd|icebh |cj ydfj fmmb dy |cj
{jy| mn zy"
D `ehc| dcjdl, zp |cj ce``"
E idb yjj |cj kehhjy| mn |cj |c{jj |{jjy bmx, |cey keh k`dig
`mh `uebh |cj{j" \cj `ehc| ey imfebh n{mf ebyelj |cj |{edbh`j, d
yfd`` hm`l h`mx eb |cey keh nm{jy| nz`` mn behc|, fdgebh e| `mmg
xd{f egj d idfpye|j" E ydu Ldl |m fuyj`n" \cjb E id`` e| mz|,
kz| cj lmjyb| cjd{" E {zb |cj `dy| `e||`j ke| m~j{ {migy, id``ebh
`mzlj{ bmx" Xcjb E hj| |m |cj |{edbh`j, E yjj |cd| |cj{jy bm
dbyxj{ kjidzyj cjy bm| |cj{j" Mz{ dyc`ehc|, |cj mbj n{mf
|cj km||mf l{dxj{ eb |cj ge|icjb, ey y|eigebh zp mz| mn |cj
h{mzbl dbl |cd|y d``" \cj kd||j{ejy d{j `mx dbl |cj `ehc| ey
eigj{ebh"
Bmx Ef im`l" Id|j xdy {ehc|, E ycmz`l cd~j fu adigj| mb"
Xcj{j xmz`l cj hm= E y|dbl mb |cj kehhjy| `mh dbl id``,
Ldl" D keh hzy| mn xebl fdgjy fj cd~j |m ycmz| `mzlj{ azy|
|m cjd{ fuyj`n, kz| E kd`dbij fuyj`n |cj{j dbl gjjp uj``ebh"Fdukj cjy kdig d| |cj cmzyj kz| `jn| |cey cj{j eb idyj xj
bjjl |m fflbl e| `d|j{" E`` |{u |xjb|u fm{j |efjy, jdic ffl~j
yjimbly dpd{|" He~ebh fuyj`n |cd| imzb|ebh |m lm gjjpy
fj n{mf kjebh yid{jl |cd| cj eyb| dbyxj{ebh, zb|e` |cj |xjb&
|ej|c |{u"
E cd~j |m kj k{d~j bmx" Xcjb umz{j fjj|ebh ymfjmbj d|
;?
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8/9/2019 Extract: Things We Didn't See Coming by Steven Amsterdam
19/22
d p`dij `egj |cey, umz lmb| d`xduy hj| |cj{j d| |cj ydfj |efj
dbl ymfjmbj cdy |m xde| nm{ ymfjmbj j`yj" E i{mzic lmxb,
xceic gjjpy fj xd{fj{" Fdukj cj hm| km{jl mn xde|ebh nm{fj" E~j hm| |m |cebg ljnjbye~j`u |mm" E lmb| xdb| |m jbl zp
n{mqjb" E id`` Ldl |xjb|u fm{j |efjy, xe|c |cj xebl yxd`&
`mxebh fu ~meij dy ymmb dy e| imfjy mz| mn fu fmz|c"
Cju$ Ef imfebh$
E|y cef, {zbbebh |c{mzhc |cj nm{jy| |mxd{l fj"
Cey yce{| ey zbkz||mbjl dbl cjy yxjd|ebh" Cjy mz| mn
k{jd|c, kz| yfe`ebh" Mc fu kmu, e|y hmml |m yjj fu kmu" Cj
he~jy d keh h{eb dbl {jy|y cey cdbly mb fu ycmz`lj{y"\cdbg
umz, |cdbg umz, |cdbg umz"
E p{mfeyjl E xmz`l imfj ym E lel"
Cj |cdbgy fj ymfj fm{j" E~j kjjb {zbbebh |m |{u dbl
hj| cdppu mz| cj{j mb fu mxb, |m |{u dbl y|du xd{f" D`` E lel
xdy hj| fuyj`n xj|" Dbl bmx umz{j cj{j xe|c fj" Hmml fdb"
Lm |cju gbmx xcj{j umz d{j=
Bmpj"
Bm{fd``u, cj xmz`l kj yjblebh fj kdig {ehc| dxdu ym
|cd| bm mbj #Id|j% xmz`l hj| fdl, kz| bmx cj `mmgy mz| eb|m
|cj xmmly" Ey cj |cebgebh ljnjbye~j`u= Cj y|dbly zp mb mbj
mn |cj `mhy dbl pz``y fj zp xe|c cef" Cj pz|y cey cdbly{ehc| zblj{ fu d{fy dbl `en|y fj zp eb n{mb| mn cef `egj
cj zyjl |m, ym fu cjdl ey dy cehc dy cey dbl xj idb `mmg
|c{mzhc |cj |{jjy dbl yjj ffl{jxm{gy" \cju{j d`` m~j{ |cj
p`dij bmx"
Yjj |cd|= cj yduy"E|y azy| |z{bjl felbehc|"
Cj pz|y fj lmxb bjs| |m cef dbl gjjpy xd|icebh" Cjy
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8/9/2019 Extract: Things We Didn't See Coming by Steven Amsterdam
20/22
eb|jbyj dkmz| e|, `egj db m`l&y|u`j Ebledb xde|ebh nm{ d yfmgj
yehbd`"
Lm umz yjj dbu|cebh xje{l mz| |cj{j=Bm|cebh zbzyzd`" E|`` kj d njx cmz{y kjnm{j xj gbmx
xcd|y xcd|" Umz kj| El {d|cj{ kj cj{j |cdb dbuxcj{j j`yj"
E cd~j d tzjy|emb" Imz`lb| xj cd~j |dgjb cj{ |mm= \cj
xmfdb eb |cj id{" H{dblfd dbl H{dblpd `egj ~eye|m{y, j~jb
mb ypjied` lduy" \cjb umz dbl Id|j xmz`lb| cd~j nmzhc|
dbl xjl d`` kj ydnj dbl |mhj|cj{ dbl xj imz`l kj xd{f
{ehc| bmx"
Ldl yfe`jy d| fj `egj Ef |mm umzbh |m zblj{y|dbl" Cj
he~jy fj d czh dbl gjjpy cey d{fy d{mzbl fj" @j|y hj| mz|
mn |cj xebl" Xj azfp lmxb eb|m |cj |{edbh`j dbl cj pz``y
mz| d p`dy|ei kdh nm{ zy |m ye| mb bjs| |m jdic m|cj{"
Bm, xj imz`lb| cd~j |dgjb cj{" \{zy| fj" E| xdy kj||j{ |m
fflhc| xe|c umz{ fm|cj{ |cdb lm |cd|" Xj{j bm| fflhc|ebh dbu&
xdu" Dbl fm{j |cdb |cd|, |cj {jy| mn |cjf fehc| kj ye||ebh eb
|cj ld{g bmx" Xmz`lb| |cd| kj nzbbu=
Bm"
Xj``, E |cebg e| xmz`l kj"
\cj `ehc|y xe`` imfj kdig mb ymmbj{ m{ `d|j{, xmb|
|cju=J~jb|zd``u" Ef bm| azy| imbij{bjl dkmz| |mbehc| dy mbj
j~jb|" Lm umz zblj{y|dbl |cd|=
Ujy"
\cey xcm`j |cebh ey yufkm`ei, yufkm`ei mn d yuy|jf |cd|y
cmpj`jyy`u ycm{|yehc|jl, d yuy|jf |cd| |xjb|u, |ce{|u ujd{y dhm
imz`lb| efdhebj d |efj xcjb xj fehc| kj y|d{|ebh d bjxijb|z{u" \cd|y cmx `efe|jl db dbefd` xj d{j" Lm umz hj| e|=
;;
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8/9/2019 Extract: Things We Didn't See Coming by Steven Amsterdam
21/22
D xcm`j ypjiejy |cd| lelb| |cebg |m yj| e|y i`migy |cj {ehc|
xdu" Xj d{j d{{mhdb|, y|zpel, xj `dig czfe`e|u eb |cj ndij
mn ijb|z{ejy dbl ijb|z{ejy mn |efj kjnm{j zy" Xcd| xj id``gbmx`jlhj, xcd| umz `jd{b eb yicmm` dkmz| nmyye`y dbl
lebmydz{y, e|y d`` czbicjy" Xcd| xj gbmx bmx ey |cd| xj
lelb| |cebg jbmzhc" Xj gbmx xj d{jb| id{jnz` jbmzhc dbl
|cd|y dkmz| d`` xj gbmx" \cd|y xcd| Ef |{uebh |m p{m|ji| zy
n{mf"
E ydu, MG, kjidzyj cjy hj||ebh fm{j zpyj| dy cj |d`gy"
Xcd| j`yj cd~jb| xj kjjb pduebh d||jb|emb |m= E xm{{u
dkmz| umz{ `enj, xcd|y hmebh |m cdppjb |m umz" Xj idb| |cebg
mz{ xdu mz| mn j~j{u p{mk`jf" Xj{j bm| yfd{| jbmzhc"
Lmb| xm{{u ym fzic"
\cey mb`u fdgjy cef fdl" Xcd|y |cj {ehc| dfmzb| mn
xm{{u= Eb mz{ |efj, eb umz{ |efj, |cj{j`` kj k{jdglmxby |cd|
idb| kj fflsjl" \cj{j xe`` kj fm{j leyjdyjy |cd| idb| kj fflsjl"
Xd|j{ xe`` kj dy ~d`zdk`j dy me`" Dbl umz`` kj y|zig |dgebh
id{j mn d nd| hjbj{d|emb mn zyj`jyy pd{jb|y"
E`` |dgj id{j mn umz xcjb umz hj| m`l"
Cj i`myjy cey yce{| d{mzbl cey icjy|, kz| lmjyb| kz||mb e|"
Cjy y|e`` |d`gebh tzeig`u, `egj cjy |{uebh |m hj| d`` |cj xm{ly
mz| eb mbj k{jd|c"Umz idb p{mfeyj |m kj dy yxjj| dy umz xdb|, kz| pei|z{j
|cey1 \cj nz|z{j ey d cmype|d`, pdigjl xe|c yeig pjmp`j, pdigjl
xe|c cz{| pjmp`j, pjmp`j mb y|{j|icj{y eb |cj cd``y, dbl yzl&
ljb`u |cj `ehc|y hm mz|, |cj xd|j{ ycz|y mnn, dbl umz gbmx eb
umz{ cjd{| |cd| |cju{j bj~j{ imfebh kdig mb" \cd|y |cj
nz|z{j, fu n{ejbl"E|y azy| zy eb |cj nm{jy|, kz| cjy |d`gebh `mzlj{ |cdb cj
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8/9/2019 Extract: Things We Didn't See Coming by Steven Amsterdam
22/22
bjjly |m, dkmz| |cebhy kjebh xm{yj |cdb cjy j~j{ ydel |cju
xmz`l kj" E xdb| |m kj |mzhc nm{ cef, ym E dyg, Cmx lm E hj|
{jdlu nm{ |cd|=\cey y|mpy cef dbl fdgjy cef {jd``u `mmg d| fj nm{ |cj
ffl{y| |efj eb ffl~j febz|jy"
Ef ym{{u, cj yduy" Cj icdbhjy" Cj x{dpy cey d{fy
d{mzbl fj dbl E idb njj` |cj yxjd| mb cey kmlu dy cj pz``y fj
i`myj"
Cj `mxj{y cey ~meij" @ey|jb, Ef ym{{u nm{ j~j{u|cebh" Ef
ym{{u" Ef ym{{u" Cj lmzk`jy m~j{, he~ebh fj d kjd{ czh,
k{jd|cebh ndy|, `egj cjy y|e`` {zbbebh"
\cj dyc`ehc| y|eigebh mz| mn |cj h{mzbl ey eigj{ebh
fm{j bmx" E xmblj{ en |cd|y |cj mb`u `ehc| |cd|y hmebh |m hm
mz| |mbehc|" E xdb| |m imb~ebij cef |m imfj kdig |m |cj
cmzyj ym xj lmb| jbl zp mz| cj{j eb |cj ld{g eb |cj im`l"
E ydu xcd| H{dblpd `egjy |m ydu1 J~j{u|cebh xe`` kj fflbj
zb|e` e|y bm|" \cjb xj idb xm{{u" Cj lmjyb| yjjf |m cjd{ e|"
Cj azy| gjjpy {migebh, |j``ebh fj cjy ym{{u dbl czhhebh fj
dy |ehc| dy cj idb |m cm`l |cj xm{`l y|e``"
;