extensions of nasa's exploration architecture ...1 x rs-25e [ lox/lh2] 1 x les srm 1 x new...

SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI)www.sei.aero

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Mr. A.C. CharaniaSenior FuturistSpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI)[email protected]

Dr. Hiroshi KanamoriSpace & Robot System GroupInstitute of TechnologyShimizu [email protected]

EXTENSIONS OF NASA'S EXPLORATION ARCHITECTURE:Performance Capabilities and Market Economics of a Lunar Propellant Production Facility

25th ISTS (International Symposium on Space Technology and Science) | Kanazawa, Japan | 04-11 June 2006ISTS 2006-k-13Revision A | 08 June 2006

Contents

IntroductionBackgroundProcessResultsConclusions


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3

Introduction


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About SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI)

Overview:- Engineering services firm based in Atlanta (small business concern)- Founded in 2000 as a spin-off from the Georgia Institute of Technology- Averaged 130% growth in revenue each year since 2001 - 85% of SEI staff members hold degrees in engineering or science

Core Competencies:- Advanced Concept Synthesis for launch and in-space transportation systems- Financial engineering analysis for next-generation aerospace applications and markets- Technology impact analysis and quantitative technology portfolio optimization

Including:- 2nd, 3rd, and 4th generation single-stage and two-stage Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) designs (rocket, airbreather, combined-cycle)- Human Exploration and Development of Space (HEDS) infrastructures including Space Solar Power (SSP)- Launch assist systems- In-space transfer vehicles and upper stages and orbital maneuvering vehicles- Lunar and Mars transfer vehicles and landers for human exploration missions- In-space transportation nodes and propellant depots- Interstellar missions- In-space and surface human habitats

Concepts and Architectures

Image sources: SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI), Space Systems Design Lab (SSDL) / Georgia Institute of Technology


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Recent Exploration Experience

Including:- NASA Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) Concept Exploration and Refinement (CE&R) Study Subcontractor- NASA Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) Economic Development of Space (EDS) Project- NASA MSFC exploration architecture trade studies (launch vehicles, in-space stages, lunar landers)- NASA MSFC Prometheus follow-on study: Nuclear Electric Propulsion (NEP) mission to Pluto/Kuiper Belt- NASA LaRC Lunar Lander Preparatory Study Phase 1 Concept Design for NASA JSC - Rocketdyne propulsion technology assessment on lunar exploration architectures- Mission Scenario Analysis Tool (MSAT) architecture optimization tool development- Moonraker in-space stage and habitat sizing tool development- In-space trajectory tool development- Lunar exploration economic and life cycle cost analysis

Image sources: NASA


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Sample Economic Analyses Performed by SEI

Human Exploration Cost Estimates Scenarios of Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) Price Sensitivity

500

1,500

2,500

3,500

4,500

25% 50% 75%Turn-Around-Time Reduction

Pric

e Pe

r Pou

nd P

aylo

ad [$

/lb]

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Flig

ht R

ate

[Flig

hts

Per Y

ear]

Price Per Flight [$/lb]

Flight Rate [Flights/Year]

500

1,500

2,500

3,500

4,500


Pric

e Pe

r Pou

nd P

aylo

ad [$

/lb]

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Flig

ht R

ate

[Flig

hts

Per Y

ear]



1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000

10,000


Pric

e Pe

r Pou

nd P

aylo

ad [$

/lb]

20

25

30

35

40

Flig

ht R

ate

[Flig

hts

Per Y

ear]



1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000

10,000


Pric

e Pe

r Pou

nd P

aylo

ad [$

/lb]

20

25

30

35

40

Flig

ht R

ate

[Flig

hts

Per Y

ear]



Oper

atio

ns C

ost R

educ

tion

DDT&E AND TFU COST REDUCTION25% 75%

25%

75%

Components of LCC (FY06)

Other (Robotic/ISS/Shuttle)

CEV/CM

CLV

LSAM

CaLV-HLLV

EDS + CEV/SM

Technology Maturation Surface Systems

Facilities, Operations, and Flight Tests

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Year

$M

$111.3 B (2006-2018) $53.4 B (2019-2025)$164.7 B

NASA FY06 Exploration-Related Budget

See: http://www.sei.aero/library/technical.html for more information and technical papers on above analyses

Space Tourism Economic Modeling International Space Station (ISS) Support Market

-100M

-50M

0M

50M

100M

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Disc

ount

ed C

umul

ative

Ca

sh F

low

(US

$)

Project Year

Effect of Competition

Higher-End Operator

In Competition with Higher-End

Lower-End Operator

Effect of Market Entry Date

0 2 4 6 8 10 12Project Year

-40M-20M

0M20M40M60M80M

-60M-80M 2 Year Market Delay

4 Year Market Delay

Higher-End Operator

Lower-End Operator

5 Commercial Competitors + min. 2 CEV/Yr + Russian Competition


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About Shimizu Corporation

Overview:- Head Office: Tokyo, Japan- History: Founded in 1804, Incorporated in 1937- Business: Engineering & Construction- Major Areas: Buildings (Habitat, Office, Hospital, School, Industrial Facilities), Bridges, Dams, Tunnels, Development- Employees: 11,680 (Apr. 2004)- Net Sales: 1,295,300,000,000 (2003) (US$ 11,000,000,000.-)- Research Institute: Tokyo, Japan (East Side)- Researchers: 200

Space Focus:- Future scope on construction engineering & technology- Apply Shimizu technology into space programs- Get spin-off technology from following space programs - Develop commercial space programs


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Shimizu Corporation and Projects in Space

Establishment1987

- “Space Project Office” for Future Business Challenge - “CSP-Japan” for Space Business Consulting Company - jointed with CSP Associates (Boston)

Concept Development1988

- Lunar Base Concept Development

1989- Space Hotel Concept, Space Robotics – Carnegie Mellon Univ.

Research & Development on Engineering/Technology1990

- Lunar Base - Collab. w/ McDonell Douglas Space Systems Co.- Living in Space - Collab. w/ Martin Marietta

1991- Lunar Oxygen Production Collab. w/ Carbotek (Houston) - Inflatable Structure - Collab. w/ Binistar (Napa)

Involved in Governmental Space Programs1994

- Orbital Robotics Experimental Project (NASDA & NAL)

1995- Production of Lunar Soil Simulant- Study on Lunar Concrete

Current Research on Domestic Space Programs1996~

- Space Tourism- Lunar Water Production- Lunar Soil & Excavation- Lunar Rover- Solar Power Satellites

Construction Systems

Lunar Resource Utilization

Human Habitation

Large-Scale Structures

Robotics

Space Port

Commercial Space


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Background


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United States of America (USA) National Vision for Space Exploration (VSE)

Implement a sustained and affordable human and robotic program to explore the solar system and beyond

Extend human presence across the solar system, starting with a human return to the Moon by the year 2020, in preparation for human exploration of Mars and other destinations;

Develop the innovative technologies, knowledge, and infrastructures both to explore and to support decisions about the destinations for human exploration; and

Promote international and commercial participation in exploration to further U.S. scientific, security, and economic interests.

THE FUNDAMENTAL GOAL OF THIS VISION IS TO ADVANCE U.S. SCIENTIFIC, SECURITY, AND ECONOMIC INTEREST THROUGH A ROBUST SPACE

EXPLORATION PROGRAM


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Components of Lunar Return: NASA’s Exploration Systems Architecture Study (ESAS)Image sources: NASA, ESAS Report: http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/exploration/news/ESAS_report.html


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EARTH

MOON

Earth Orbit

LunarOrbit

Earth To Orbit (ETO) Launch No. 1:Cargo Launch Vehicle (CaLV)Shuttle-Derived Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle (HLLV)Earth Departure Stage (EDS) + Lunar Surface Access Module (LSAM)

Earth To Orbit (ETO) Launch No. 2:Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV)Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) with new Upper StageCrew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) Command Module (CM) +Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) Service Module (SM) + Launch Escape System (LES)

LEO Rendezvous

Earth Arrival

Transfer to Moon (TLI + LOI) Return to Earth (TEI)EDS

(Performs TLI)Two-Stage LSAM

(Performs LOI + Descent + Ascent)CEV/SM

(Performs TEI) CEV/CM

Note: Notional representation of lunar exploration architecture. Architecture elements may not be in scale.

Lunar Descent Lunar Ascent

5 x RS-25f [LOX/LH2]2 x 5 segment SRB

2 x J-2S+ [LOX/LH2] 4 x RL-10+ [LOX/LH2] - Descent1 x New [LOX/CH4] - Ascent

1 x 4 segment SRB

1 x RS-25e [ LOX/LH2] 1 x LES SRM

1 x New [LOX/CH4] – Same as LSAM

Notional Representation of NASA ESAS Lunar Exploration Architecture (circa late 2005)


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ESAS Baseline Lunar Lander Total Mass: 45.9 MT Apollo LM Total Mass: 16.5 MT

Apollo Lunar Lander vs. ESAS Lunar Lander

“The ESAS team recommends the deployment of a lunar outpost using the “incremental build” approach. Along with the crew, the lander can deliver 500 kg of payload to the surface, and up to 2,200 kg of additional payload if the maximum landed capacity is utilized. This capability opens the possibility of deploying an outpost incrementally by accumulating components delivered by sortie missions to a common location. This approach is more demanding than one that delivers larger cargo elements. In particular, the habitat, power system, pressurized rovers, and some resource utilization equipment will be challenging to divide and deploy

in component pieces. The alternative to this incremental approach is to develop a dedicated cargo lander that can deliver large payloads of up to 21 mT.”Source: NASA's Exploration Systems Architecture Study -- Final Report, August 2005, URL: http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/exploration/news/ESAS_report.html, p.25.


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Process


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Task Overview

Multiple governments, specifically the United States of America, are interested in human exploration of cis-lunar space.

These space exploration architectures could potentially utilize new commercial products (e.g. space hotels, propellant depots, orbital tourism)

What would an actual scenario for lunar commerce look like, what products could be produced and what price points would exist that make companies financially viable?

An economic analysis is performed of a commercially operated lunar In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) facility providing propellant to a government customer

- Development of ISRU system (Shimizu Corp.), economic analysis (SEI) using Cost and Business Analysis Module (CABAM)

- Monte Carlo simulation on several key engineering and business parameters- The commercial company is assumed to be responsible for the development and

construction of the ISRU plant but is not responsible for development of the transportation architecture to send the plant to the lunar surface

- The commercial company is assumed to pay the transportation cost to the lunar surface to the government

- Initial development starts in 2014, with Initial Operating Capability (IOC) in 2022, for this analysis only one propellant plant is assumed to be operational

- The commercial company has revenue-generating operations for 10 years


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Notional Elements of Lunar Propellant Plant and Depot-Lunar Surface (PPD-LS)

Excavator

Water / SoilSeparator

Transporter Water / IceStorages

Electrolyzer / Dryer Radiators

Liquefiers / Radiators

LOx / LH2Storage

Tanker Loader

Solar Panels

Storage Habitats

* Scale is not strict

Nuclear PowerPlant

+ Construction Machines (Wheel Loader, Wheel Crane)


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Lunar PPD Size for 21 MT Lunar Lander

20.94Lunar PPD Systems Total

----------Lunar Habitat Module

0.07D8.6x0.45Solar Panels

2.15D1.6x4.3Storage LH2

1.23D1.6x2.1Storage LOX

0.585x3x0.3Radiators LH2

0.215x3x0.1Radiators LOX

0.420.5x1x1Liquefiers LH2

0.130.6x0.7x1Liquefiers LOX

0.043x3.1x0.05Dryer Radiators

1.081x1x1Electrolyzer

5.91PPD-LS

5.40D8.6x2Nuclear Power Station

4.802.5x1.6x2Wheel Crane

----------Wheel Loader

----------WTM Loader

1.43D2.0x1.7Water Storage

1.606x0.15x0.15Transporter

0.80D0.6x3Seperator

1.002x0.1x0.1Excavator

15.03Soil and Water Management

Mass [MT]Size(stowed) [m]Components

The ISRU facility is envisioned to be delivered by the government’s transportation architectureThis facility is sized to fit on the lunar lander and arrive with no habitatThe facility is constrained to be less than 21 MT (the capability of a notional lunar lander similar to that described by NASA's recent Exploration Systems Architecture Study)Accessible lunar polar water ice 1 wt.% water concentration in lunar regolithTechnologies available

- Bucket wheel excavator- Water separation by heating Method- Nuclear power plant for heat source- Assembly of lunar facilities by semi-

autonomous systemThe propellant production rate is on average 20.0 kg/hourIf such a plant were operating continuously over a lunar 10 day period (approximating daylight operation) then that would equate to 4.8 MT/month or 57.6 MT/year of propellant (LH2 and LOX)


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Monte Carlo Simulation: Triangular Distributions for Various Uncertainty Parameters

+5%-20%57.6ISRU Propellant Production Capability [MT/year]*+50%-10%$30 MMission Operations Cost [$M/year, FY2005]

+25%-10%

$1,397 M$540 M$208 M$649 M

Transportation Cost to Lunar Surface [$M, FY2005]Cargo Launch Vehicle (CaLV)**Earth Departure Stage (EDS)***

Lunar Surface Access Module (LSAM)***

+75%-25%

$310 M$65 M$193 M$53 M

Acquisition Cost [$M, FY2005]Nuclear Power Plant*

Excavation/Processing/Storage Facility Cost*Mass of Excavation/Processing/Storage Facility*

+75%-25%

$930 M$195 M$578 M$158 M

DDT&E Cost [$M, FY2005]Nuclear Power Plant*

Excavation/Processing/Storage Facility Cost*Mass of Excavation/Processing/Storage Facility*

MaximumMinimumDeterministic/Most LikelyParameter

Notes:United States Dollars FY2005 unless otherwise noted, any errors due to rounding* - Source: Shimizu Corporation (75% development cost, 25% acquisition cost)** - Source: Charania, A., "The Trillion Dollar Question: Anatomy of the Vision for Space Exploration Cost," AIAA-2005-6637, Space 2005, Long Beach, California, August 30 - September 1, 2005.*** - Source: Exploration Systems Architecture Study (ESAS) Draft Report, Section 12.


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Results


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Cash Flow for Deterministic Baseline Case (WACC = 21.7%, Price = $17,286/kg)

-$200

-$100

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

Year

US

$M

Total Cost (w/o Financing)Total Cost (w/ Financing)Discounted Value (Before Interest), WACCNet Income After Taxes

WACC: A company’s assets are financed by either debt or equity. WACC is the average of the costs of these sources of financing, each of which is weighted by its respective use in the given situation. A firm's WACC is the overall required return on the firm as a whole and, as such, it is often used internally by company directors to determine the economic feasibility of expansionary opportunities and mergers. Source: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/wacc.asp


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Propellant Price Frequency Distribution (WACC = 21.7%, 1,000 Monte Carlo Runs)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

14,1

79

14,7

75

15,3

71

15,9

68

16,5

64

17,1

60

17,7

56

18,3

53

18,9

49

19,5

45

20,1

42

20,7

38

21,3

34

21,9

30

22,5

27

23,1

23

23,7

19

24,3

15

24,9

12

25,5

08

26,1

04

26,7

01

27,2

97

27,8

93

28,4

89

Lunar Surface Propellant Production Price [$/kg, FY2005]

Occ

uran

ces

Mean = $19,912/kgstd dev. = 2998

90% Certainty <= $24,415/kg


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Delivered Propellant Price for Required Return (1,000 Monte Carlo Runs)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

Luna

r Sur

face

Pro

pella

nt P

rodu

ctio

n Pr

ice

[$/k

g, F

Y20

05]

Probabilistic Price: Mean Probabilistic Price: 90% Confidence (<=) Deterministic Price

Baseline WACC = 21.7%Price = $17,286/kg

WACCProbabilistic Price: Mean

Probabilistic Price: 90%

Confidence (<=)Deterministic

Price5.0% $5,473/kg $6,411/kg $4,762/kg

10.0% $8,294/kg $9,883/kg $7,226/kg15.0% $12,349/kg $14,885/kg $10,668/kg20.0% $17,832/kg $21,842/kg $15,369/kg21.7% $19,913/kg $24,416/kg $17,286/kg25.0% $25,227/kg $30,367/kg $21,672/kg30.0% $34,846/kg $43,024/kg $29,993/kg35.0% $47,157/kg $58,740/kg $40,831/kg


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Conclusions


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Observations and Concluding Remarks

- This analysis used the baseline ESAS lunar lander payload constraints to design an ISRU propellant production facility and consider its economics

- Such a facility as designed here can produce about 58 MT of propellant per year for 10 years and could achieve a return for a commercial company if prices were above $15,000-20,000/kg for propellant delivered at the lunar surface

- A baseline WACC was of 21.7% was arrived at using a traditional comparison amongst multiple industries, debt-equity assumptions, risk free rates, and market risk premiums

- For the baseline case were WACC was equal to 21.7%, the price for propellant to a customer on the lunar surface was $17,286/kg (single price was used for either hydrogen or oxygen)

- The 90% certainty value is over $4,000/kg more than the mean with a slightly skewed output distribution, since most of the triangular distributions were skewed towards the maximum, the probabilistic (mean and 90% confidence) values are higher for each WACC value than the deterministic price

- For the baseline WACC of 21.7%, the mean value was higher ($19,913/kg) than the deterministic value and 90% of the Monte Carlo output prices were less than $24,416/kg

- Work presented here was part of a larger study performed by Shimizu Corporation and CSP Japan, Inc. for SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) under the project entitled: “Economic Development of Space (EDS): Examination and Simulation.”

- The authors would like to acknowledge technical assistance on the economic modeling portion of this analysis from Mr. Hideki Kanayama, Aerospace Policy and Industry Team Leader, CSP Japan, Inc., Tokyo, Japan. The authors would also like to acknowledge support from Mr. Yoshida Tetsuji, General Manager, Space And Robotics Systems (SARS) Group, Institute of Technology, Shimizu Corporation, Tokyo, Japan.

- Sponsorship and financial support (including support for the international partners on the team) for the EDS project was provided by a contract from NASA's Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) Exploration Systems Research and Technology (ESR&T) office at NASA Headquarters.


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www.sei.aero

Business Address:SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI)1200 Ashwood ParkwaySuite 506Atlanta, GA 30338 U.S.A.

Phone: 770-379-8000Fax: 770-379-8001

Internet:WWW: www.sei.aeroE-mail: [email protected]

extensions of nasa's exploration architecture ...1 x rs-25e [ lox/lh2] 1 x les srm 1 x new...

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