extension and outreach/department of economics evaluating economic impact of transgenes afri sds...
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOBTRANSCRIPT
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Evaluating Economic Impact of Transgenes
AFRI SDS Project MeetingDes Moines, Iowa
May 8, 2013
Image Source: www.cbt.com.my
Chad HartAssociate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U.S. Soybean Supply and Use2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Area Planted (mil. acres) 77.5 77.4 75.0 77.2 77.5Yield (bu./acre) 44.0 43.5 41.9 39.6 44.5Production (mil. bu.) 3,359 3,329 3,094 3,015 3,405
Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 138 151 215 169 125Imports (mil. bu.) 15 14 16 20 15Total Supply (mil. bu.) 3,512 3,495 3,325 3,204 3,545
Crush (mil. bu.) 1,752 1,648 1,703 1,615 1,660Seed & Residual (mil. bu.) 110 130 91 119 135Exports (mil. bu.) 1,499 1,501 1,362 1,345 1,500Total Use (mil. bu.) 3,361 3,280 3,155 3,080 3,295
Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 151 215 169 125 250Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 9.59 11.30 12.50 14.30 10.50
Source: USDA-WAOB
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Timeline and Milestones
As the economic analysis will be heavily dependant on the yield and cost impact from the transgenic soybean lines, the vast majority of the economic analysis must be conducted in the last year of the study.
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Task i. Establish baseline data
1. Establish baseline data on:a. U.S. and global soybean marketsb. SDS losses
Utilize USDA World Ag. Supply & Demand data for 1a.
Combine USDA data with information from industry and commodity groups for 1b.
Example: The 2010 U.S. soybean crop was valued at $37.6 billion. SDS is estimated to have caused $0.82 billion in losses that year.
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Task i. Establish baseline data
Source: USDA-ERS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Task ii. Evaluate revenues and production costs
1. Generate historical average and projected pricesa. Price premiums/discounts for transgenicsb. Revenue impacts from yield changes
2. Generate production cost estimatesa. Utilize established costs for standard cropb. Augment cost budget for transgenics
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Current Soybean Futures
Source: CME Group, 4/26/2013
11.5211.45
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soybean Production Costs
Source: ISU Extension, A1-20
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soy Prices vs. Costs
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Task iii. Analyze impact of adoption of lines in U.S.
1. Use the outputs from tasks i and ii as inputs for scenario analysis
a. Impacts on plantings, supply, demand, etc.b. 2 scenarios:
• Baseline: no transgenic adoption• Scenario: 50% adoption rate
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Task iii. Analyze impact of adoption of lines in U.S.
Source: USDA
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Thank you for your time!
Any questions?
My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/
Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/
Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/