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Extended Energy Snapshot (Ex SS Model) – Iskandar Malaysia
HO C S, Matusoka Y, Gomi, Janice, Yoshimoto
September 17,
2009
Tsukuba, Japan
Key Design Characteristics
Participating Model: ExSS (Extended Tool Snapshot)Model Type: Energy Integrated Model
Participating Modelers: Matsuoka Yuzuru, Gomi Kei, Shimada Koji, Yoshimoto Kohsuke, Janice Simson and Ho Chin SiongTime Step: 1 yearTime Frame: 2005 to 2025Solution Type: Static, Accounting methodEquilibrium Type: Market EquilibriumUnderlying Computing Framework: General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMs) and Microsoft Excel spreadsheet.
Inputs and Outputs
Key inputsDemographics: population by region/ local authority, population composition ratio by sex and age cohort, average household size.Economic: Labor force participation ratio by sex and age cohort, Export value (demand of goods and services from other areas by industrial classification), Import rate (rate supplied from industry outside the area, among the demand of goods and service within the area.), Government expenditure (gov. consumption expenditure, gov. fixed capital formation)Resources: Coal & gas, crude oil, petroleum product, renewable energy, nuclear, hydro power, and electricity.Technology: Technology representations of production, transformation and use technologies.
Key outputsEconomic: GDP, Gross output by sectors (primary, secondary & tertiary industry), passenger transport & freight transportEnergy: Energy balance table, GHG emission inventory. Emissions: CO2 emissions by sectors (residential, commercial, industrial, passenger transport & freight transport)Climate: GHG reduction by measures .
Regional Scope & Other Detail
Regional Profile:Regional Scope: District levelNumber of Sub-Regions: five Flagship zons: Johor Bahru City Center, Nusajaya, Western Gateway Development (Pontian), Eastern Gateway Development (Pasir Gudang), Senai-Skudai.
Other Details:Energy Demand Sectors: Residential, Commercial, Industry, Freight Transportation, Passenger Transportation, Energy Supply Sectors: Coal & gas, crude oil, petroleum product, renewable energy, nuclear, hydro power, and electricityOther Sectors: -
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LCS scenario study using ExSS
Wage Income
Export by goods
Government expenditure
Investment
Import ratio
Input coefficient matrix
Labor productivity Labor participation ratio
Household size
Consumption pattern
Demographic compositionTaxation and social security
Floor area per output
Freight generation per output
Transport distance
Modal share
Trip per person
Trip distance
Modal share
Energy service demand per driving force
Fuel shareEnergy efficiency
CO2 emission factor
IO analysis
Output by industry
Consumption
Labor demand Population
Number of household
Output of commercial
industry
Commercial building
floor area
Freight transport demand
Passenger transport demand
Population
Energy demand
CO2 emission
Output of manufacturing
industry
Carbon sink
Methodology developed by Shimada et.al (2006), Gomi et. Al (2007)
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Setting of Framework
Base Year : 2005
Target Year 2025
Emission Target
30% reduction of CO²
per capita from 2005 to 2025 with Counter
Measures
50% reduction of CO²
emission from 2025BaU to 2025CM
Scenarios
2025 BaU (business as usual) without Counter measures
2025 CM with Counter measures
Sensitivity analysis
Economic activity level
Commuting structure
Socio Economic Scenario of IM
7
232%
Energy Demand By Sector
8
10,936
5,9155,915
3,286
Energy Demand by Energy Sources
9
10
45,484
19,58919,589
12,552
GHG Emission By Sector
Potential Mitigation in IM
11
57%262%
52%
Mitigation Measures
12
13
6. Conclusion
14
Model application in other regions
Kyoto
Shiga
Iskandar Malaysia
Ahmedabad
AIM Training Workshop on LCS studies at NIES, 31 August – 11 September. 2009
Thank you for your attention!