Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc.

Food Consumption Data in Microbiological Risk Assessment

Barbara J. Petersen and Leila M. BarrajBarbara J. Petersen and Leila M. Barraj

EExponentponent

Food and Chemicals PracticeFood and Chemicals Practice(formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc.)(formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc.)

Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc.

Acknowledgement:Acknowledgement:

S. Kathleen Egan, S. Kathleen Egan,

US Food and Drug AdministrationUS Food and Drug Administration

Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc.

Risk Assessment ParadigmRisk Assessment Paradigm

•Hazard IdentificationHazard Identification

• Exposure AssessmentExposure Assessment

•Hazard CharacterizationHazard Characterization

•Risk Characterization Risk Characterization

Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc.

Using Consumption Data in Microbiological Risk AssessmentsUsing Consumption Data in Microbiological Risk Assessments

• Iterative process:Iterative process:– Consumption data Consumption data exposure (intake) exposure (intake)

estimatesestimates– Intake estimates Intake estimates risk estimates (e.g., risk estimates (e.g.,

illnesses, deaths per year)illnesses, deaths per year)– Risk estimates compared to actual or Risk estimates compared to actual or

reported eventsreported events– Refine risk assessment if necessaryRefine risk assessment if necessary

Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc.

Exposure AssessmentExposure Assessment

• Pathogen concentration in food at Pathogen concentration in food at time of consumptiontime of consumption– Presence on/in foodPresence on/in food– Pathogen distribution on/in foodPathogen distribution on/in food– Pathogen concentrationPathogen concentration

•Consumption of foodConsumption of food– Frequency of consumptionFrequency of consumption– Amount consumedAmount consumed

Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc.

Consumption DataConsumption Data

• Frequency of consumptionFrequency of consumption– Number of mealsNumber of meals– Number of servingsNumber of servings– Per year, per week, per dayPer year, per week, per day

• Amount consumedAmount consumed– Per meal, per serving, per dayPer meal, per serving, per day– Average amounts, unit size, distributionsAverage amounts, unit size, distributions

• Depend on purpose of assessment and Depend on purpose of assessment and data available data available

Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc.

Consumption Patterns Related to: Consumption Patterns Related to:

• Population demographicsPopulation demographics– Age, gender, ethnicity, socio-economic Age, gender, ethnicity, socio-economic

characteristicscharacteristics

• SeasonSeason

•RegionRegion

Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc.

Characterize Consumption Patterns of: Characterize Consumption Patterns of:

• Sensitive subpopulationsSensitive subpopulations– Young children, elderly, pregnant Young children, elderly, pregnant

women, immunodefficient, …women, immunodefficient, …

•High risk consumer behavior, e.g., High risk consumer behavior, e.g., – Consumption of unpasteurized dairy Consumption of unpasteurized dairy

productsproducts– Consumption of undercooked meat Consumption of undercooked meat

productsproducts

Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc.

Difference in Consumption DatabasesDifference in Consumption Databases

•How information is collectedHow information is collected– Consumer surveys, sales statistics, Consumer surveys, sales statistics,

production statistics, …production statistics, …

• Food formFood form– Foods as consumed, as purchased, raw Foods as consumed, as purchased, raw

agricultural commodities, …agricultural commodities, …

Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc.

Food Production StatisticsFood Production Statistics

• Raw or semi-processed agricultural Raw or semi-processed agricultural commodities commodities

• Amount of food available for total Amount of food available for total populationpopulation Annual quantity of food available per personAnnual quantity of food available per person Daily per capita amountDaily per capita amount

• National statistics on food production and National statistics on food production and utilization utilization

• FAO Food Balance SheetsFAO Food Balance Sheets

• International assessmentsInternational assessments

Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc.

Consumption SurveysConsumption Surveys

•National level or specific National level or specific subpopulationssubpopulations• Information on:Information on:– Types and amounts of foods consumed Types and amounts of foods consumed

over a short period of timeover a short period of time– Frequency of consumption of a pre-Frequency of consumption of a pre-

specified list of foodsspecified list of foods

• Limited number of countriesLimited number of countries• Level of detail, method, and survey Level of detail, method, and survey

instrument vary across surveysinstrument vary across surveys

Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc.

Retail Food PurchasesRetail Food Purchases

• Specific foodsSpecific foods

• Typically at household levelTypically at household level

•Often used to supplement Often used to supplement information from food consumption information from food consumption surveyssurveys

Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc.

Amount of Food ConsumedAmount of Food Consumed

• Per-capita or per-userPer-capita or per-user– Total population or restricted to Total population or restricted to

consumers of the foodconsumers of the food– Difference depends on frequency of Difference depends on frequency of

consumptionconsumption– Data sourceData source

Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc.

Amount of Food ConsumedAmount of Food Consumed

• Per year, per day, per eating occasionPer year, per day, per eating occasion– Acute or chronic effectsAcute or chronic effects– Daily Daily • Restricted to consumption daysRestricted to consumption days• All survey days All survey days

– Data sourceData source

Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc.

Amount of Food ConsumedAmount of Food Consumed

• Point estimatePoint estimate– Serving unitServing unit– Typical (average) amount Typical (average) amount – High end consumption amountHigh end consumption amount

• Entire distributionEntire distribution

Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc.

Frequency of ConsumptionFrequency of Consumption

• Proportion of population consuming the Proportion of population consuming the foodfood

• How often an individual consumes the foodHow often an individual consumes the food– Number of days per year in which food is Number of days per year in which food is

consumedconsumed– Number of eating occasions per yearNumber of eating occasions per year• Annual number of mealsAnnual number of meals• Number of times a food is consumed per yearNumber of times a food is consumed per year• Number of times a given portion size is consumed per Number of times a given portion size is consumed per

yearyear

Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc.

Frequency of ConsumptionFrequency of Consumption

•Assessment can be refined using Assessment can be refined using sales volume or market share datasales volume or market share data– e.g., pasteurized and unpasteurized milk e.g., pasteurized and unpasteurized milk

or juice salesor juice sales– AssumeAssume• x% of all eating occasions are for x% of all eating occasions are for

unpasteurized food form unpasteurized food form • Uniform distribution across entire populationUniform distribution across entire population• Similar consumption amountsSimilar consumption amounts

Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc.

Using Food Production Statistics Using Food Production Statistics

• Total population Total population individuals within a individuals within a populationpopulation– Uniform distribution?Uniform distribution?– Regional differences?Regional differences?– Ethnic, age, gender differences?Ethnic, age, gender differences?

• Annual statistics Annual statistics daily estimates daily estimates– Seasonal differences?Seasonal differences?– Day of the week differences?Day of the week differences?

• Raw agricultural commodities Raw agricultural commodities foods as foods as consumedconsumed– Processing method?Processing method?– Cooking method?Cooking method?

Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc.

Using Consumption SurveysUsing Consumption Surveys

• Sample of population Sample of population total total populationpopulation– Representative?Representative?– Statistical weightsStatistical weights

• Limited number of days Limited number of days long-term long-term estimatesestimates– ““Typical” days?Typical” days?– Day to day variability? Day to day variability?

• Food groups Food groups individual foods individual foods– Equal frequencies and amounts? Equal frequencies and amounts?

Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc.

Using Consumption SurveysUsing Consumption Surveys

• Infrequently consumed foodsInfrequently consumed foods– Per user estimatesPer user estimates– Per day or eating occasionPer day or eating occasion

• Foods consumed in mixed dishesFoods consumed in mixed dishes– Recipes? Recipes?

• Joint exposure for multiple foods or Joint exposure for multiple foods or for individual foodsfor individual foods– Total exposure?Total exposure?– Risk from individual foods?Risk from individual foods?

Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc.

Using Consumption SurveysUsing Consumption Surveys

• Typically focus on nutrition aspectTypically focus on nutrition aspect– May focus on different subpopulations May focus on different subpopulations

than those of interestthan those of interest– May not collect enough detail on foods May not collect enough detail on foods

consumed consumed

•Raw data versus summary statisticsRaw data versus summary statistics

Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc.

Using Consumption SurveysUsing Consumption Surveys

• Food sourceFood source– Home / store / restaurant / fast food Home / store / restaurant / fast food

place / cafeteria / vending machine …place / cafeteria / vending machine …

•Where consumedWhere consumed

•When was food consumed?When was food consumed?– Time of dayTime of day– With meal / meal nameWith meal / meal name

• Source of drinking waterSource of drinking water– Bottled / CWS / well …Bottled / CWS / well …

Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc.

Using Consumption SurveysUsing Consumption Surveys

• Information on consumer behavior Information on consumer behavior typically missing:typically missing:– Food handlingFood handling– Cooking methodCooking method– Cooking temperature and durationCooking temperature and duration– Potential for cross contamination Potential for cross contamination

• For most microbial contaminants, For most microbial contaminants, one of most important factorsone of most important factors