Expo LineUpgrade Strategy

Project Summary September 21, 2010

Contents i

List of Exhibits ii

Overview and Key Findings 1

1.0 Introduction 3

1.1 Overview of the Expo Line 3

1.2 Study Context 5

1.3 Objectives of this Study 5

1.4 Existing System Configuration 6

2.0 Existing and Future Issues/Constraints 7

2.1 Existing Issues 7

2.2 Future Issues 14

2.3 Review of Subsystem Constraints 16

3.0 Ridership: Existing and Forecast 18

4.0 Alternatives to Meet Future Ridership Demand 21

4.1 Alternative Measures to Relieve Future Expo Line Demand 21

4.2 Expo Line Upgrade Alternatives 22

5.0 Potential Upgrades to Subsystems to Resolve Future Capacity Constraints 24

6.0 Expo Line Upgrade Strategy: Evaluation of Alternatives 26

6.1 Fleet Upgrades 27

6.2 Subsystems Upgrades 29

6.3 Station Upgrades 29

6.4 Capital and Operational Costs 32

7.0 Recommendation and Implementation Strategy 35

7.1 Stakeholders Actions and Project Monitoring 38

ProjectSummary | i

ii | TranslinkExpoLineUpgradeStrategy

List of Exhibits ii

Exhibit 1: Metro Vancouver SkyTrain System (2010 Operations) 4

Exhibit 2: Interdependency of the Expo Line System Elements 6

Exhibit 3: Estimated Maximum Demand versus Line Capacity 8

Exhibit 4: Current Expo Line Train Profiles 11

Exhibit 5: Maximum Observed AM Peak Hour Westbound Train Arrivals at Commercial-Broadway Station (April 2010) 12

Exhibit 6: Observed Pass-Ups at Commercial-Broadway Station (April 2009 AM Peak Period) 13

Exhibit 7: Observed Pass-Ups at Commercial-Broadway Station (September 2009 AM Peak Period) 13

Exhibit 8: Observed Pass-Ups in April 2009 and September 2009 14

Exhibit 9: Constraint Summary 17

Exhibit 10: Journey-to-Work Census Data and Downtown Transit Mode Share (1996 and 2006) 18

Exhibit 11: Expo Line Ridership Forecasting Methodology 19

Exhibit 12: Anticipated Growth in Critical Link Flow Demand 20

Exhibit 13: Expo Line Upgrade Alternatives 23

Exhibit 14: Summary of Year By Year Constraints 24

Exhibit 15: Summary of the Proposed Upgrades Associated with the Base Case, Upgrade Alternative 1 & Upgrade Alternative 2 25

Exhibit 16: Expo Line Upgrade Strategy Objectives, Target Performance and Key Actions 27

Exhibit 17: Decision Flowchart for Fleet Upgrades 28

Exhibit 18: Upgrade Requirements by Subsystem 30

Exhibit 19: Upgrade Requirements for Expo Line Stations 31

Exhibit 20: Capital and Operation Cost by Alternative 32

Exhibit 21: Committed Incremental Capital Expenses Profile for Upgrade Alternative 1 (in 2010 Constant $) 33

Exhibit 22: Committed Incremental Capital Expenses Profile for Upgrade Alternative 2 (in 2010 Constant $) 33

Exhibit 23: Upgrade Path for Alternative 2 36

Exhibit 24: Stakeholder Follow-up Actions 38

Exhibit 25: Approach to Measuring Project Outcomes 39

ProjectSummary | 1

Overview and Key Findings

The Expo Line is the most important single

element in the regional transit network as it

serves as the backbone of the system, linking

the most populous parts of Metro Vancouver

between downtown Vancouver and the

municipalities east to Surrey. The line first went

into service in 1986 and has been extended

and expanded in subsequent years to meet

growing demands for service.

Due to the critical importance of the Expo Line

to the region, it is important to ensure that

optimal service levels and system reliability can

be maintained for the long-term if emissions,

transportation and land use objectives are to

be met.

Current issues on the Expo Line relate to

capacity, accessibility and general station

design. Capacity issues related to delays and

overcrowding will increase in the future as

ridership growth results in demand that exceeds

the near-term capacity. Currently committed

upgrades will address only a small portion of

what is required to address long-term growth.

This will be a particular issue at the peak load

point between the Commercial-Broadway

and Main Street-Science World Stations. As

regional centres continue to develop along the

line, delays and overcrowding will occur at an

increasing number of stations.

The objectives of the Expo Line Upgrade

Strategy are to:

� Increase the capacity to meet the anticipated increases in demand;

� Ensure that all subsystems are upgraded to handle the increase in capacity;

� Ensure that the necessary station improvements are implemented for safe and convenient passenger flows;

� Determine a staged and gradual upgrade of the system through targeted capital investments over the next 30 years;

� Describe the foreseeable impacts associated with other regional transit network elements, such as bus interchanges.

This Expo Line Upgrade Strategy identifies

the timing and costs of the upgrades needed

over the next 30 years to support the system’s

ability to meet demand and support the B.C.

Provincial Transit Plan goal of doubling the

2007 Expo Line capacity. As the Expo Line

system consists of various system elements

and these have a high level of interdependency,

there are system-wide as well as element

specific upgrades to be made. Similarly, as

improvements are carried out for one part of

the system, they will inherently affect other

parts of the system.

As part of the upgrades, the Strategy assessed

future fleet alternatives (base case, all 4-car,

and all 5-car) and recommends that the Expo

Line be upgraded to operate all 5-car Mark

II (MKII) trains. This will increase the capacity

to 25,700 passengers per hour in the peak

direction (pphpd) from 16,000 in 2010. Other

upgrades to support a 5-car MKII fleet of 300

vehicles by 2031 include the following:

2  |  Translink Expo Line Upgrade Strategy 

�� Improvements�to�the�Propulsion�Power�System;�

�� A�new�or�expanded�vehicle�storage�facility;�

�� Enhanced�Automatic�Train�Control�stopping�precision�at�all�stations;�

�� A�new�entrance�at�Burrard�Station;�

�� Accessibility�improvements�at�Nanaimo,�29th�Avenue,�Royal�Oak,�Edmonds,�22nd�Street,�and�Columbia�Stations;�

�� Completion�of�planned�station�upgrades�at�Main�Street-Science�World,�Commercial-Broadway�(Phase�2)�and�Metrotown�Stations;

�� Improved�neighbourhood�integration�at�Edmonds�Station;

�� Extension�of�platforms�and�reconstruction�of�entry�buildings�and�vertical�circulation�facilities�at�Stadium-Chinatown�and�Joyce-Collingwood�Stations;

�� Relocation�of�service�walkway�gates�and�edge�tapers�at�platform�edges�at�fourteen�stations;�

�� Provision�of�an�additional�emergency�stairway�at�nine�stations;

�� Lengthening�existing�platforms�at�Commercial-Broadway�Station;�and,

�� Extension�of�the�platforms�and�reconstruction�of�the�existing�footbridge�and�circulation�facilities�at�29th�Avenue�Station.

The� incremental� capital� costs� of� these�

improvements�(in�2010�$)�is�estimated�at�$783�

million�or�$39.2�million�annually�over� the�next�

20� years.� The� estimated� incremental� total�

operating�cost� is�$712�million� for� the�next�30�

years.�The�planning�and�timing�of�improvements�

should� be� conducted� in� a� logical� manner� to�

ensure� that� system�performance� is�optimized�

over�time�and�that�investments�are�coordinated�

to� maximize� their� cost-effectiveness.� It� is�

suggested�that�TransLink�continue�to�monitor�

the� ridership� on� the� Expo� Line� to� refine� the�

timing�of�upgrades�and�assess�the�success�of�

the�strategy�in�alleviating�capacity�issues.

ProjectSummary | 3

1.0 │ Introduction

The Expo Line is the backbone of Metro

Vancouver’s rapid transit network. Since

1986, it has served millions of customers by

providing a reliable and efficient link between

New Westminster, Surrey and Vancouver.

The success of this system is measured by the

number of passengers it has carried and the

increases in demand year after year. In 1999,

it carried 43.6 million passengers and in 2008

(with the Millennium Line extension), it carried

approximately 73.2 million passengers, a 68

percent increase or about 6 percent increase

per year.

Up until 2009, the Expo Line had been

operating at capacity, carrying approximately

12,000 pphpd. A fleet expansion in 2009-

2010 added 48 new MKII vehicles. Although

capacity currently exceeds demand on the line,

the expected ridership growth over the next

several years will again result in overcrowded

conditions, unless further capacity increases

are implemented.

The ultimate design capacity originally

envisaged for the Expo Line was 19,400

pphpd using trains consisting of 6 MKI vehicles

operating at 93 second headways. With more

recent design innovations the system can now

increase line capacity to 25,700 pphpd based

on running a fleet with 5 MKII vehicles per train,

operating at 93 second headways. To achieve

this new capacity target, physical upgrades to

stations, subsystems and the Operations and

Maintenance facility would be needed.

1.1 Overview of the Expo LineThe Expo Line first opened in January 1986

with an initial 21.4 km of guideway and 15

stations, linking Waterfront Station with New

Westminster Station. Progressive extensions in

1989, 1990 and 1994 brought the line to King

George Station in Surrey, establishing a total of

20 stations along 29 km of guideway.

In 2002, the SkyTrain system was further

expanded with the opening of the Millennium

Line. The Expo and the Millennium Lines share

the same guideway and station platforms

from Waterfront to Columbia Station. Beyond

that, the Expo Line continues to King George

Station in Surrey, whereas the Millennium

Line loops back via Lougheed Highway to

VCC-Clark Station in Vancouver. In addition

to Columbia Station, a platform to platform

interchange between the two lines is provided

at Commercial-Broadway Station. The two lines

also share the same vehicle fleet, controlled

from a single Operating and Maintenance

Centre (OMC) near Edmonds Station.

The combined Expo-Millennium Line is

operated by the British Columbia Rapid

Transit Company (BCRTC), a subsidiary of the

South Coast British Columbia Transportation

Authority (TransLink). Exhibit 1 shows the Expo

Line and its coverage within the TransLink

Rapid Rail Transit Network.

4|

TranslinkExpoLineUpgradeStrategy

Millennium

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Exhibit 1: Metro Vancouver SkyTrain System

(2010 Operations)

ProjectSummary | 5

1.2 Study ContextIn recent years, various factors have, by

cumulative effect, contributed to the increase

in ridership demand on the Expo Line:

� Strong economic activity in the region

� Increased fuel prices and parking rates

� Heightened densities and development around transit stations

� Improved bus service

� Policies supporting increased transit use

� Improved rapid transit network connectivity

In the future, demand on the Expo Line will also

be influenced by changes in other parts of the

regional transit network, changes in land use

patterns, and changes to regional initiatives

and policies. For example:

� High-density residential and employment developments have been occurring around key SkyTrain Stations. As long as transit service continues to be an attractive option, the region will continue to see growth in transit-oriented developments.

� Carbon footprint reduction targets of the local, regional and national governments will trigger initiatives and/or policies to encourage greater shift from the private vehicle to public transit.

� The Evergreen Line is expected to start operations by 2014.

� At the time of this study, TransLink and other government agencies were studying the feasibility of the UBC Line and rapid transit in Surrey. These projects and bus service expansions will attract more trips on the Expo Line.

The end result of these changes over time

will be an increase in demand for further rapid

transit capacity along the Expo Line corridor as

it will remain the backbone of the system for

the foreseeable future.

A strategy is needed to:

� Increase the Expo Line capacity to meet the growth in demand.

� Ensure that all subsystems are upgraded to handle the increase in capacity.

� Determine if and where station improvements are needed to ensure unimpeded and safe passenger flows.

� Allow for staged and gradual upgrades of the system within reasonable budgets through targeted capital investments over the next 30 years.

1.3 Objectives of this Study The primary objectives of this study were to:

1. Confirm the existing Expo Line passenger

demand;

2. Determine existing conditions such as

passenger flows and crowding at stations;

3. Determine future ridership forecasts to

2041;

4. Test and evaluate the subsystem

capacities and limits;

5. Confirm the system’s maximum possible

capacity and any related constraints;

6. Identify required upgrades;

7. Develop alternative strategies to achieve

maximum capacity and evaluate them;

and,

8. Propose an implementation plan.

The review process also included the following considerations in the analysis of alternatives:

� Current issues related to capacity during peak hours and accessibility

� Currently committed near-term upgrades and their impact on an overall upgrade strategy;

� Additional vehicle purchase and operating scenario optimization (such as fleet mix optimization) to match capacity to projected demand;

� Fleet expansion’s effect on the existing subsystems.

1.4 Existing System ConfigurationAs part of the Expo Line Upgrade Strategy, upgrades to all subsystems are required to support

an increase in capacity. The rationale for this arises from a high level of interdependency between

the various system elements. Exhibit 2 is a schematic that illustrates this principle. As shown,

the development of the Expo Line Upgrade Strategy is highly complex, as the strategy needs to

consider and address the multi-faceted nature of the system.

A need to increase passenger carrying capacity on the Expo Line affects five to six different sets

of elements (such as the Propulsion Power Systems, vehicle fleet and station throughput). While

the design of the Expo Line originally envisaged a maximum capacity limit of around 19,400

pphpd, advances in vehicle design and other subsystems has enabled the possibility to get more

capacity than originally planned.

At the same time, growth patterns along the corridor generated more trips than originally forecast

at certain key stations. These now require expansion to meet these changes.

SUBSYSTEMS•Propulsionpowersystem•Guidewayandstructures•Trackworkandalignment•Automatictraincontrol

TRAINLENGTHINOPERATION

VEHICLEFLEET•Lifeexpectancy•Spareratio•Interiorconfiguration•Vehiclestorageyard

FLEETOPERATINGPLAN

•Headway•Dwelltime•Short-turnservice

ACCESSIBILITY•Escalators•Elevators•Newentrances•Parkandridespaces•Busloopcapacity

CODES&STANDARDS•Seismic•Emergencyegress•Safetyandsecurity•Levelofserviceetc.

STATION•Verticalcirculation•Platformlength•Egresscapacity•Faregates

PASSENGERCARRYINGCAPACITY

OFTHEEXPOLINE

6 | TranslinkExpoLineUpgradeStrategy

Exhibit 2: Interdependency of the Expo Line System Elements

ProjectSummary | 7

2.1 Existing Issues2.1.1 Line Capacity

The Expo Line suffers from a number of physical and technological constraints which prevent the

system from reaching an ultimate capacity of 25,700 pphpd without targeted investments being

made.

As of 2009, the peak hour demand estimated at 14,600 pphpd exceeded the system capacity

of 13,300 pphpd between Broadway-Commercial Station and Main Street Station. As shown in

Exhibit 3, demand in April 2009 was outstripping capacity at Commercial-Broadway Station by

9.5%. This resulted in passengers being left on platforms and waiting one or two trains before

being able to board. By 2010, capacity had been increased to 16,000 pphpd with the addition of

48 MKII vehicles to the fleet.

By September 2009 with fleet expansion underway, about 1,225 passengers (or more than 2

train loads) did not board the first train as it passed through the Commercial-Broadway Station

due to overcrowding.

Although capacity is now at 16,000 pphpd, occasional pass-ups still occur at the height of the

peak periods.

2.0 │ Existing & Future Issues/Constraints

8|

TranslinkExpoLineUpgradeStrategy

AM Peak H

our WB Capacity and D

emand

39 tph

34 tph

23 tph9700

16000

1470039 tph

13800

35 tph

884023 tph

1278039 tph

35 tph

24 tph

13340

12320

8720

37 tph

33tph

7700

11000

12000

22 tph

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

Waterfront

Burrard

Granville

Stadium

Main Street‐Science World 

Commercial‐Broadway

Nanaimo

29th Ave

Joyce‐Collingwood

Patterson

Metrotown

Royal Oak

Edmonds

22nd St

New Westminster

Columbia

Scott Road

Gateway

Surrey Central

King George

Station

Hourly Passengers

Estimated A

pril 2010 Line CapacityObserved Septem

ber 2009 Line Capacity

Observed A

pril 2009 Line CapacityObserved 2007 Line Capacity

Estimated A

pril 2009 Dem

andEstim

ated September 2009 D

emand

Exhibit 3: Estimated M

aximum

Dem

and versus Line Capacity

Notes:

* 39tph = 39 trains per hour

2.1.2 Station Circulation Capacity

While most stations function within acceptable parameters, specific passenger elements at

certain stations are operating at close to maximum capacity, thereby lowering the overall quality

of service and passenger comfort. In particular, during the April 2009 survey, stations such as

Burrard, Commercial-Broadway and Metrotown experience surge-related circulation issues at

peak times.

Line ups at Burrard and Metrotown Station when exiting

Issues include lengthy queues at escalators, and overcrowding on platforms due to pass-ups

occurring during the 15 minute peaks. The latter occurs frequently at Scott Road, Joyce-

Collingwood, 29th Avenue, Nanaimo, Commercial-Broadway, Main Street-Science World and

Stadium-Chinatown Stations in the eastbound direction during the morning peak.

Pass-ups and platform crowding issues at Commercial-Broadway Station

ProjectSummary | 9

Pass-ups at Joyce-Collingwood and Scott Road Stations

Photos showing pass-ups and platform crowding conditions inside Expo Line Trains (April 2009)

Inside MKI Car Inside MKII Car

At Commercial-Broadway Station passenger traffic between the Millennium Line and the Expo

Line platforms also causes circulation back-ups at the escalators to/from the passerelle over

Broadway in the morning and afternoon peaks.

10 | TranslinkExpoLineUpgradeStrategy

ProjectSummary | 11

2.1.3 Train Composition Issues

Exhibit 4 shows the current Expo Line MKI train profiles. It is noted that the 2-car MKII train

shown below is rarely in use as of 2010, except during the special AM peak hour service from

Commercial-Broadway to Waterfront Stations. Exhibit 5 shows a typical AM peak period train

composition arrival pattern at Commercial-Broadway Station in 2010.

4-car MKI train332 passengers/train

6-car MKI train498 passengers/train

2-car MKII train256 or 264* passengers/train

4-car MKII train512 or 528* passengers/train

(only used during the special AM peak hour service from Commercial-Broadway to Waterfront Stations)

Exhibit 4: Current Expo Line Train Profiles

* For the new MKII trains

12 | TranslinkExpoLineUpgradeStrategy

Train Capacity WB AM Peak

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

7:37

:19

7:39

:59

7:43

:09

7:46

:44

7:49

:20

7:52

:10

7:55

:44

7:59

:21

8:02

:56

8:05

:30

8:08

:20

8:11

:54

8:15

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8:17

:41

8:20

:55

8:25

:09

8:28

:12

8:31

:02

8:33

:47

8:37

:15

Time

Train Ca

pacity

(passeng

ers/train)

                                                  4‐MKI                  4‐MKII

                                                  2‐MKII                4‐New MKII

                                                     6‐MKI                  2‐New MKII

Expo

Expo Millen

nium

Expo

Expo

Millen

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Broa

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Millen

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Millen

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Expo

Expo

Expo

Expo

Expo

ExpoExpo

Expo

Expo

Expo

Expo

Expo

Expo Expo

Expo

Expo

Expo

Expo

Expo

Mill.

Mill.

Broa

dway

Exhibit 5: Maximum Observed AM Peak Hour Westbound Train Arrivals at Commercial-Broadway Station (April 2010)

The current operation of trains with uneven lengths result in passengers bunching near the

stopping position of shorter trains. This also has the effect of uneven train loading on longer trains

on longer trains, which is a further cause of downstream pass-ups.

2.1.4 Pass-ups at Key Stations

The capacity issue that has become most critical in the morning peak during 2009 was pass-ups

(passengers missing one or more trains) at stations between Joyce-Collingwood and Main Street-

Science World.

On-site surveys conducted in April 2009 and September 2009 showed that during the AM peak

period, pass-ups occurred routinely at all the westbound platforms between Joyce-Collingwood

and Main Street-Science World Stations. The survey results are shown in Exhibits 6, 7, and 8.

ProjectSummary | 13

Exhibit 6: Observed Pass-Ups at Commercial-Broadway Station (April 2009 AM Peak Period)

Exhibit 7: Observed Pass-Ups at Commercial-Broadway Station (September 2009 AM Peak Period)

April 2009 Observed AM Peak Boarding at Broadway (WB) 

0

50

100

150

200

7:58

:49

8:02

:21

8:05

:24

8:07

:54

8:11

:17

8:14

:52

8:17

:21

8:20

:11

8:22

:46

8:25

:56

8:29

:24

8:32

:26

8:35

:14

8:38

:59

8:41

:47

8:44

:30

8:47

:06

8:51

:35

8:57

:31

Time

N⁰ of Passeng

ers

Passengers Who Have Been Passed Up

Max. 180 Pass‐ups

September 2009 Observed AM Peak Boarding at Broadway (WB) 

0

50

100

150

200

8:01

:10

8:04

:13

8:06

:44

8:10

:06

8:13

:45

8:16

:16

8:19

:09

8:22

:43

8:26

:21

8:29

:28

8:32

:11

8:35

:17

8:39

:12

8:42

:00

8:44

:51

8:47

:35

8:51

:30

8:55

:15

8:58

:10

Time

N⁰ of Passeng

ers

Passengers Who Have Been Passed Up

Max. 125 Pass‐ups

14 | TranslinkExpoLineUpgradeStrategy

Exhibit 8: Observed Pass-Ups in April 2009 and September 2009

Observed Data April 2009 September 2009

Maximum Number of Trains Per Hour (tphpd) 39 39

Maximum Line Capacity (pphpd) 13,344 13,804

Pass-ups at Nanaimo Station (pphpd) 264 142

Pass-ups at Commercial-Broadway Station (pphpd) 1,261 1,225

Pass-ups at Main Street-Science World Station (pphpd) 270 268

Estimated Maximum Demand (pphpd) 14,605 15,029

2.2 Future IssuesAs ridership on the Expo Line increases, the issues currently identified will increase in severity.

Degradation of service will continue without implementing strategic upgrades. Passenger

convenience and comfort will decline with the occurrence of delays and overcrowding, resulting in

decreased transit attractiveness. Passengers may opt for less sustainable but more comfortable

modes of travel.

2.2.1 Near- and medium-term capacity will not accommodate projected ridership demand

The near-term capacity will not accommodate the forecast ridership demand beyond 2014. At

key stations like Burrard, the existing capacity will be exceeded by 2012.

Even with the addition of fleet in 2010, the issues of congestion, overcrowding and passenger

delays and inconvenience will return when ridership growth results in passenger demand that

meets or exceeds the near-term capacity.

Furthermore, increasing passenger train capacity without improving vertical circulation capacity at

specific stations will limit the system in achieving optimal line capacity.

2.2.2 Station and platform accessibility issues will continue to reduce transit convenience to passengers

The aging population in Metro Vancouver is a key factor affecting the need to provide accessible

transit.

Some Expo Line Stations lack up-escalators making it difficult for some riders to use rapid transit.

While down-escalators are provided at a few stations that have relatively large grade changes

between station levels, consistent provision of escalators at all stations will improve accessibility.

ProjectSummary | 15

2.2.3 Stations and platforms will continue to fall below design, aesthetics and security standards

Many of the Expo Line Stations are 15 to 25 years old. Some will, over time, not comply with the

latest design standards and any related risks associated with substandard emergency evacuation

capacities.

If left unresolved, transit attractiveness will be affected. The current design standards and

aesthetics along most of the Expo Line are also different from those on the Millennium and Canada

Lines. Any major upgrades to Expo Line Stations should consider a review and confirmation of

the current applicable safety standards for rail transit stations and upgrades to station elements

that enhance patron safety and comfort.

2.2.4 The potential for transit-oriented development will be reduced

While substantial development and related densification has occurred near transit stations in

recent years, municipal support for further transit-oriented development along the Expo Line may

be reduced if existing and future capacity constraints on the system are not addressed. This may,

in turn, discourage the inclusion of transit-oriented development in municipal and regional growth

plans that identify development in areas served by rapid transit.

2.2.5 The effectiveness of the regional transit network will be reduced

Planned rapid transit lines that feed and distribute Expo Line passengers to adjacent city centres,

such as the Evergreen Line and potential UBC and Surrey lines, will be limited in their ability to

attract new riders if the Expo Line capacity is not increased to meet demand. The new lines will

not diminish the passenger demands on the Expo Line; rather, they will expand the demand.

It is therefore important to develop a strategy that will not only address the capacity of the system,

but also passenger convenience and comfort and the ability for the Expo Line to sustain required

service levels as the backbone of the region’s rapid transit network.

16 | TranslinkExpoLineUpgradeStrategy

2.3 Review of Subsystem ConstraintsThis study included a review of Expo Line

subsystems to confirm and assess their

condition and limitations and their ability to

function when capacity is increased. This

included the following:

2.3.1 Propulsion Power Systems

The Expo Line Propulsion Power System

was designed to accommodate the MKI

vehicles for at least the first 20 years without

needed upgrades, with some additional spare

capacity. With the recent increases in fleet and

the introduction of the MKII vehicles, power

upgrades are necessary to maintain a level

of performance that meets minimum service

criteria and to ensure enough capacity for

future fleet expansion and related headway

reductions.

Recent review of the Propulsion Power

System and its ability to handle more capacity

highlighted the need to immediately upgrade

the system as it was already insufficient to

handle the existing capacity for an extended

period of time. The addition of 48 new MKII

vehicles in Spring 2010 added to this need for

capacity and power system enhancements.

2.3.2 Trackwork

The existing system was designed to handle a

full MKI, 6 vehicles per train fleet operating at

recovery headway of 75 seconds. A 6 vehicle

MKI train has a length of 76.2 metres. The

system’s headway is constrained primarily by

the Waterfront Station terminus reversal, and

no other major issues were identified relating to

trackwork in relation to capacity.

2.3.3 Guideways and Structures

The structural components along the Expo

Line are generally in good condition. Although

it may be possible to increase train lengths,

further structural analysis is suggested to

assess the service life capacity of the guideway

and station structural elements.

2.3.4 Automatic Train Control

The Automated Train Control (ATC) system was

originally designed and installed over 20 years

ago but has been upgraded with successive

fleet and line additions, including the Millenium

Line. As some of the equipment is nearing end

of life, a series of upgrade programs has been

initiated to improve reliability and replace aging

equipment.

ATC system upgrades now underway will

accommodate future extensions for at least 25

years.

2.3.5 Station Emergency Evacuation

Using a holistic approach, passenger safety can

still achieved for the 2010 operating condition; however an independent review should be conducted to validate the conclusions from this study. Identification of long term expansion requirements to accommodate ridership growth and adoption of 5-car MKII trains will require strategic planning and implementation into TransLink’s infrastructure development program. More significantly, the introduction of 5-car MKII train operations would impose an increased ridership burden on the system that the stations were not designed to accommodate in their as-built conditions. As such, the required exiting capacity at most stations will need to be supplemented with

new or expanded vertical circulation.

ProjectSummary | 17

2.3.6 Operations and Maintenance Facility

The operation and maintenance facility is currently being upgraded. The current facility is expected to store 150 MKI and 36 MKII cars. The facility is being expanded to its maximum physical capacity to store an additional 14 4-car MKII trains.

Due to storage yard facility constraints, there are currently 16-21 trains stored on tail and pocket tracks on the mainline before the new MKII trains were introduced. Even with the expanded OMC storage yard, there is a shortage of storage space for four 4-car MKII

trains at the April 2010 fleet size.

2.3.7 Platform Lengths

The platform length currently provided at most

Expo Line Stations is 80 metres. This length

Element

Station Circulation Capacity

Constraints at Burrard station during peak periods given current provisions are anticipated to be reached by 2012. Other constraints at Commercial-Broadway and Metrotown Stations will be reached beyond 2012.

Propulsion Power System Upgrades needed to ensure/maintain system reliability

Station Emergency Evacuation Capacity

No significant constraint identified but eventually need to confirm 5 vehicle MKII operation *

OMC Expansion needed to accommodate existing fleet and near term additions

Structures No major issues but eventually need to confirm life cycle based on 5 vehicle MKII operation*

Platform Length Platform extension required at certain stations in order to accommodate 5 vehicle MKII operation*

ATC Mitigation measures required for 5 vehicle MKII operation*

Vehicle Fleet More fleet is required for future capacity expansion

Trackwork No major issues

would enable operations of five vehicle MKII

trains with four stations requiring modest

platform extensions. Although six vehicle MKII

trains were also considered initially, it is not

possible to accommodate this train length

without significant and costly reconstruction of

all stations, which would be particularly costly

for the underground stations.

2.3.8 Constraints Summary

Exhibit 9 summarizes the constraints identified

for the Expo Line. The most pressing need

for upgrades identified was for the Propulsion

Power System. Part of this upgrade was

initiated at the time of writing this report.

Other constraints were identified as potentially

being more problematic as capacity is

increased to meet increasing demand.

Exhibit 9: Constraint Summary

Note: * The decision on the operation of 5-car MKII trains has not yet been made.

18 | TranslinkExpoLineUpgradeStrategy

3.0 │ Ridership: Existing & Forecast

The Expo Line experienced significant growth in ridership demand in the past decade. Journey-

to-work census data between 1996 and 2006 was reviewed to obtain a historical perspective

on transit trip demand growth along the Expo Line catchment area to downtown Vancouver. The

data is shown in Exhibit 10.

Downtown Vancouver Employment

Expo Line Catchment Area Total Trip Demand

Expo Line Catchment Area Transit Trip Demand

Transit Mode Share to Downtown from the Expo Line Catchment Area

1996 113,410 42,225 21,060 50%

2006 128,875 47,800 27,810 58%

Annual Growth 1.3% 1.2% 2.8%

Exhibit 10: Journey-to-Work Census Data and Downtown Transit Mode Share (1996 and 2006)

Over the 10-year census period, the annual growth rate observed for the Expo Line catchment

area transit trip demand was more than twice the growth rates observed for downtown Vancouver

employment and the total trip demand in the Expo Line catchment area. Between 1996 and

2006, transit trip demand along the Expo Line catchment area grew by approximately 32 percent

and the transit mode share increased from 50 percent in 1996 to 58 percent in 2006 along the

corridor.

The current “peak-load point” of the Expo Line occurs during the AM peak period between

Commercial-Broadway and Main Street-Science World Stations in the westbound direction.

According to BCRTC data, the AM peak-hour link flow at this section grew at an average rate of

5 percent per annum between 1998 and 2008, and 3.4 percent per annum between 1990 and

2008.

In order to capture the most realistic passenger growth patterns for the Expo Line, the statistics

noted above were incorporated into the existing available models (Metro Vancouver model (MVM)

and Regional Transit Model (RTM)) and an Expo Line specific ridership forecast model was

developed as shown in Exhibit 11.

ProjectSummary | 19

2021AMPEAKEXPOLINERIDERSHIP

2003AMPEAKEXPOLINERIDERSHIP

2041AMPEAKEXPOLINERIDERSHIP

2019AMANDPMPEAKEXPOLINERIDERSHIP

ESTIMATED2009AMANDPMPEAKEXPOLINERIDERSHIP

2007/2011AMPEAKEXPOLINERIDERSHIP

2007/2011AMPEAKEXPOLINERIDERSHIP

2019AMANDPMPEAKEXPOLINERIDERSHIP

2041AMANDPMPEAKEXPOLINERIDERSHIPLOW

2041AMANDPMPEAKEXPOLINERIDERSHIPHIGH

RAPIDTRANSITNETWORK

ASSUMPTIONSLANDUSE

ASSUMPTIONS

PM growth assumed AM

growth transposed

SkyTrain/Census Data growth adjustment

Surrey Extension & SkyTrain Data growth adjustments

Inclusion for the observed pass-ups at stations in the estimate of

the maximum hourly demand

Apply SkyTrain Data Growth

RTM (Phase B)

MVM

Exhibit 11: Expo Line Ridership Forecasting Methodology

The adopted ridership forecast approach up to 2041 for the peak-load segment (between

Commercial-Broadway Station and Main Street-Science World Station) consists of the following:

� Taking into account the observed pass-ups at stations in the estimate of the maximum hourly demand

� Between 2009 and 2019:

- Assuming the significant growth of the past decade will continue over the next five years (using the observed growth rate between 1998 and 2008), the projected ridership to 2014 is established

- Assuming less significant growth will continue in the next 10 years (using the observed growth rate between 1990 and 2008), the projected ridership to 2019 is established

- A line connecting the current estimated maximum ridership (with pass-ups), the projected 2014 ridership and the projected 2019 ridership is established

� Beyond 2019, adopting high and low growth scenarios:

- Low growth is based on network-wide growth from the Metro Vancouver Model (at about 1.1 percent per year).

- High growth uses low growth as a base and factored up based on historical patterns (at about 1.5 percent per year up to 2025, and at about 2.0 percent per year beyond 2025).

20 | TranslinkExpoLineUpgradeStrategy

Exhibit 12 presents the AM peak hour flow on the Commercial-Broadway to Main Street-Science

World Station based on the adopted forecast approach. “Absolute demand” represents the

“ceiling” of all demand (includes all modes of both public and private transport) that travel into

downtown Vancouver across the Quebec Street-Hastings screenline.

Exhibit 12: Anticipated Growth in Critical Link Flow Demand

0

2,500

5,000

7,500

10,000

12,500

15,000

17,500

20,000

22,500

25,000

27,500

30,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

Year

AM Pea

k Hou

r WB Link

 Volum

e Be

twee

n Broa

dway and

 Main (pph

pd)

Actual Observed Forecast ‐ Low Forecast ‐ High

Absolute Demand Expo Line growth (1990‐2008) Expo Line growth (1998‐2008)

Estimated 2009 (with pass‐ups)

Estimated 2014 (1998‐2008 growth is applied)

Estimated 2019 (1990‐2008 growth is applied)

TransLink's Observed Data (not including pass‐ups)

ProjectSummary | 21

4.0 │Alternatives to Meet Future

Ridership Demand

Based on the anticipated Expo Line growth in ridership demand over the next 30 years, and

knowing that a maximum potential capacity of 25,700 pphpd can be achieved based on running

a fleet with 5 MKII vehicles per train, operating at 93 second headways, a series of alternatives

was considered.

At the same time, not all alternatives can achieve the ultimate capacity and therefore alternative

methods of meeting the balance of the demand were also considered.

4.1 Alternative Measures to Relieve Future Expo Line DemandThe Expo Line is the most attractive transit service into the city centre for daily commuters within

its catchment area, as Expo Line Stations serve the majority of downtown offices. While much

has been done to optimize system performance and to maximize system capacity to ensure that

the line will continue to support increased ridership, this study also reviewed potential measures

to divert the increasing passenger demand.

4.1.1 B-Lines Bus Routes

The implementation of B-Line services along the 41st Avenue and Hastings Street corridors was

reviewed. However, model results showed that the growth in Expo Line demand is not sensitive

to these B-Line Services and the diversion of the Expo Line demand to these parallel corridors

would be minimal.

4.1.2 Peak-Hour Express Bus Service on Highway 1

The implementation of peak-hour express bus services connecting Surrey, Langley and Burnaby/

Coquitlam to downtown Vancouver via the Highway 1 corridor consists of three related routes:

� Walnut Grove, Langley – downtown Vancouver

� Surrey Central - downtown Vancouver

� Lougheed Town Centre Burnaby/Coquitlam – downtown Vancouver

While some relief to the Expo Line may be realized by such a service, the level of service will

determine how many passengers will be willing to switch to bus as will the location of the bus

terminal that will be required to receive the buses and their passengers in the city centre.

22 | TranslinkExpoLineUpgradeStrategy

4.1.3 Peak Transit Fare Pricing

Increasing fares in the peak periods may reduce the level of demand at critical points of the

network and “smooth” the demand patterns. The application of peak pricing is relatively limited in

transit system and there is little literature review on its effectiveness. However, particularly in the

absence of peak pricing of the road network, implementing it on the transit network alone would

limit the ability to meet regional travel and GHG objectives.

4.1.4 Peak-Hour Shuttle Bus Service between VCC-Clark Station and Granville

The suggested service would be from VCC-Clark to Granville/Burrard with a stop near Canada

Line Olympic Village Station and use 18 metre articulated buses running at 5 minute headways in

the AM peak period. The service would have a one-way travel time of approximately 20 minutes

and the headway would be synchronized to coincide with the headway of the Millennium Line

service.

4.1.5 Effectiveness of Alternatives

While each of the alternative measures would help relieve some of the increase in Expo ridership

demand, they cannot completely replace the added capacity that will be required over the 30 year

time frame. As well, some of the options will also be adversely affected over time by congestion,

not be considered acceptable to the public (peak fare pricing) or have high capital costs..

As such, most of these options should be considered as potential temporary relief to the continuing

Expo Line capacity constraints until major upgrades are implemented.

4.2 Expo Line Upgrade AlternativesTo help meet future passenger demand on the Expo Line, two upgrade alternatives were

developed. These were compared to a base case scenario where minimum upgrades would be

implemented at minimal cost. Each alternative would achieve a different maximum capacity and

therefore generate different costs and benefits.

The upgrade alternatives are as follows:

� Base Case: Minimum upgrade and “state-of-good” repairs only, current capacity will be maintained (maximum capacity 15,300 pphpd)

� Alternative 1: System is upgraded for the operation of exclusively 4-car MKII trains to achieve a capacity of 20,600 pphpd

� Alternative 2: System is upgraded for the operation of exclusively 5-car MKII trains to achieve a capacity of 25,700 pphpd

Exhibit 13 shows the capacity constraints of the alternatives relative to the projected demand. It

also shows the upgrade paths relative to vehicle replacement and new vehicle orders for both a

4-car and 5-car MKII alternative.

ProjectSummary | 23

Note: * The line capacity of 16,000 pphpd provided by the current fleet will be achievable once the vertical circulation capacity at Burrard Station is improved by 2012

*The capacity increase in 2014 is due to truncating the “Millennium” Line at Lougheed Town Centre, allowing increased Expo Line capacity with the same fleet size

No short-turn service is assumed beyond 2014

Exhibit 13: Expo Line Upgrade Alternatives

0

2,500

5,000

7,500

10,000

12,500

15,000

17,500

20,000

22,500

25,000

27,500

30,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

Year

AM Pea

k Hou

r WB Link

 Volum

e Be

twee

n Broa

dway and

 Main (pph

pd)

Actual Observed Demand Forecast ‐ Low Forecast ‐ High

2014 Opening of Evergreen Line* (150 MKIs + 108 MKIIs)

All 5‐car MKII Fleet (300 MKIIs)

2010 Committed Vehicle Fleet#

(150 MKIs + 108 MKIIs)

Estimated Current Line Capacity (150 MKIs + 60 MKIIs)

Alternative 1

Alternative 2Partial Replacement of MKIs with MKIIs in 3‐car Units (36 MKIs + 228 MKIIs)

All 4‐car MKII Fleet (240 MKIIs)

Base Case Assumption

Combo 3, 4 and 5‐car MKII Fleet (273 MKIIs)

Estimated Maximum (with pass-ups)

Partial Replacement of MKIs with MKIIs in 2‐car Units (36 MKIs + 216 MKIIs)

(15,300 pphpd)

(20,600 pphpd)

(25,700 pphpd)

24 | TranslinkExpoLineUpgradeStrategy

5.0 │ Potential Upgrades to Subsystems to

Resolve Future Capacity Constraints

As concluded in Section 2 and shown in Exhibit 9, there are significant constraints to the Expo

Line subsystems as ridership increases year after year. Exhibit 14 summarizes the year by year

constraints indicating the approximate year when various subsystem elements reach capacity.

Exhibit 15 shows the proposed upgrades for each alternative that would be required to mitigate

some or all of these constraints relative to the maximum line capacity that the alternative would

provide.

Exhibit 14: Summary of Year By Year Constraints

ElementMaximum Practical Line Capacity Between Commercial-Broadway and Main Street-Science World Stations

Year When Capacity is Reached

2010 Vehicle Fleet(with recent addition of 48 new MKII cars) 16,000 pphpd 2014

Vertical Circulations To/From Stations During Normal Operations

15,300 pphpd (Burrard)19,500 pphpd (Commercial-Broadway)20,700 pphpd (Royal Oak)

201220242027

Station Emergency Evacuation Capacity 20,600 pphpd 2026

Propulsion Power System (Current) 11,880 pphpd Now

Propulsion Power System (Stage 1 Upgrade) 16,000 pphpd 2014

Operations and Maintenance Centre Facility (OMC) 16,000 pphpd 2014

ProjectSummary | 25

� 1

1 The current 150 MKI vehicles were assumed to have a life expectancy of 35 years. With the initial fleet of 114 MKI vehicles acquired in 1984/85 and the rest acquired after 1991, the end of the operating life of the current MKIs will be between 2019 and 2026.

   

Base C

ase

Alternative 1

Alternative 2

   

Subsystem Element

Fleet

Basic rehabilitation of MKI cars (state of good repair up to 2026)1

Purchase of new MKII cars in 2-car units 94 160 40

Purchase of new MKII cars in 3-car units     180

Propulsion Power System

Stage 1 upgrade

Stage 2 upgrade  

Stage 3 upgrade  

OMCExpansion (Tracks 11 to 13)

New storage facility  

Smartcard and faregate Implement smartcard and faregate system at all SkyTrain stations

ATC Compatibility to 5-car MKII train    

Stations

New elevator at Scott Road

Core improvements -New entrance at Burrard -Escalators at Nanaimo, 29th Avenue, Royal Oak, Edmonds, 22nd Street and Columbia -Planned major upgrades at Main Street-Science World, Commercial-Broadway and Metrotown -Upgrade to improve neighbourhood integration at Edmonds -Upgrade to support B-Line/BRT at Joyce-Collingwood -Stadium-Chinatown accessibility upgrade

 

5-car train supporting upgrades -Field-testing of existing mechanical ventilation capacity at Burrard -Relocated platform end gates and tapers at 14 stations -Add emergency exit stairs at 9 stations -Platform extensions to alleviate conflicting surge spaces at Stadium-Chinatown, Commercial-Broadway and 29th Avenue

   

Year Maximum Line Capacity Reached 2012 2026 2041

Exhibit 15: Summary of the Proposed Upgrades Associated with the Base Case, Upgrade Alternative 1 and Upgrade Alternative 2

26 | TranslinkExpoLineUpgradeStrategy

6.0 │ Expo Line Upgrade Strategy:

Evaluation of Alternatives

System reliability and service levels that provide passenger convenience, accessibility and comfort are crucial for attracting ridership. The benefits of public transit ridership further extend to broader objectives, such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions and improving quality of life for the public. In recent years, transit-oriented developments have occurred around transit stations and have proven successful in encouraging more public transit, walking and cycling trips.

Therefore, it is important to ensure that system reliability and optimal service levels can be maintained on the Expo Line for the long-term, as it is and will remain the backbone of the region’s public transit network spanning across the most populous parts of the region between downtown Vancouver and municipalities further east to Surrey.

Currently, there are issues on the Expo Line related to capacity, accessibility and general station design and aesthetics. Despite currently committed TransLink near-term upgrades, capacity issues related to delays and overcrowding at some stations will occur in the future as ridership growth results in demand that exceeds the near-term capacity. This will be a particular issue at the “peak load point” between the Commercial-Broadway and Main Street-Science World Stations. As other regional centres develop along the Expo Line, delays and overcrowding may also occur at an increasing number of stations.

The objectives of the Expo Line Upgrade Strategy are to:

1. Increase capacity of the system to meet growing demand

2. Ensure that all subsystems are upgraded to meet the increase in capacity

3. Ensure the necessary station improvements are implemented for safe and convenient passenger flows

4. Determine a staged and gradual upgrade of the system through targeted capital investments over the next 30 years

5. Describe the foreseeable impacts associated with other regional transit network elements, such as bus services, bus interchanges, and park-and-ride facilities

As the Expo Line system consists of various

system elements with a have a high level

of interdependency (as shown in Exhibit 2),

there are system-wide as well as element-

specific goals to be achieved for the objectives

identified above. Similarly, as improvements

are carried out for one part of the system,

they will inherently affect other parts of the

system. Therefore, the planning and timing

of improvements must be conducted in a

logical manner to ensure that the system-wide

performance is optimized at any given time. A

summary of the Expo Line Upgrade Strategy

objectives, target performance and key actions

are presented in Exhibit 16.

ProjectSummary | 27

Exhibit 16: Expo Line Upgrade Strategy Objectives, Target Performance and Key Actions

Objectives of the Expo Line Upgrade Strategy Target Performance Key Actions

1. Increase Expo Line capacity

-Capacity to meet or exceed ridership demand*

-Monitor ridership on a regular basis -Purchase additional fleet to increase capacity -Ensure subsystems can support the fleet addition(s)

2. Ensure subsystem upgrades

-Support the desired line capacity at a given point in time

-Plan and implement the upgrades before additional fleet is put in service

3. Ensure station improvements

-Support passenger flows associated with the desired line capacity at a given point in time

-Plan and implement vertical circulation and accessibility provisions to accommodate passenger throughput into and out of the system

4. Determine a staged and gradual upgrade of the system

-Minimize interference to regular system operations -Keep within reasonable budgets

- Identify year-by-year action and associated capital investments - Identify stakeholder actions - Identify a program to monitor project outcomes

5. Describe the foreseeable impacts associated with other regional transit network elements

-Maintain a reliable transit service network at all times

-TransLink to coordinate the planning of regional transit services, including bus services and other planned and potential new links (UBC Line, Surrey Line and the Evergreen Line)

* Ridership demand based on the adopted forecast approach as described in Section 4.

6.1 Fleet UpgradesThe key element to be considered in upgrading the Expo Line is matching growth in capacity with

growth in demand. The fleet size and its ability to provide adequate capacity over the next 20 to

30 year become the focus and affect all subsystems during that period. In the case of the 5-car

MKII alternative, station infrastructure is also affected at key locations.

Considerations for transition from a combination 6-car MKI/4-car MKII to a 5-car MKII fleet is also

important if the Alternative 2 upgrade path is chosen.

Exhibit 17 illustrates a decision flowchart showing the timeline of key decisions related to the

suggested fleet expansion and the resulting theoretical capacities. The proposed upgrade path

identifies the intermediate steps from the 2009 fleet size of 150 MKIs and 60 MKIIs to an ultimate

all 4-car MKII fleet (Upgrade Alternative 1) and an ultimate all 5-car MKII fleet (Upgrade Alternative

2), as well as the Base Case. The fleet requirement shown does not include vehicles required

for the Evergreen Line or any potential Surrey and UBC line extension. In Exhibit 17 the line

capacity presented for the Base Case is 16,000 pphpd because the chart intends to show only

the capacity of the vehicle fleet without taking other subsystem constraints, such as the vertical

circulation at Burrard Station, into account.

28  |  Translink Expo Line Upgrade Strategy 

A key decision must be made by 2015 on whether to pursue a 5-car MKII fleet.

Order 28 new MKIIs in 2-car Unit

2014 Expo King George & Lougheed Lines 150MKIs + 80 MKIIs

Decision on whether further upgrade of the Expo Line capacity is

required?

2009 Expo & Millennium Lines150 MKIs + 60 MKIIs

2014 Expo King George & Lougheed Lines 150MKIs + 108 MKIIs

2010 Expo & Millennium Lines150 MKIs + 108 MKIIs

2015

2014Opening of

Evergreen Line16,000 pphpd

2014Opening of

Evergreen Line17,300 pphpd*

2011

Order 108 new MKIIs in 2-car Unit

Order 12 new MKIIs in 2-car Unit and 108 new MKIIs in 3-car Unit

Order 70 new MKIIsin 2-car Unit

2019 Expo King George & Lougheed Lines 36 MKIs + 216 MKIIs

2019 Expo King George & Lougheed Lines 36 MKIs + 228 MKIIs

Order 24 new MKIIs in 2-car Unit

Order 45 new MKIIs in 3-car Unit

2026 Expo King George & Lougheed Lines 240 MKIIs

2026 Expo King George & Lougheed Lines 273 MKIIs

Order 27 new MKIIs in 3-car Unit

2031 Expo King George & Lougheed Lines 300 MKIIs

2019 Expo King George & Lougheed Lines 36 MKIs + 150 MKIIs

Order 24 new MKIIsin 2-car Unit

2026 Expo King George & Lougheed Lines 174 MKIIs

2016

201920,500 pphpd

2023

202620,600 pphpd

2016

201920,500 pphpd

2023

202622,700 pphpd

2028

202625,700 pphpd

2016

201916,000 pphpd

2023

202616,100 pphpd

(BASE CASE) (ALTERNATIVE 1 UPGRADE)

(ALTERNATIVE 2 UPGRADE)

Decision on whether 5-car MKII trains are to

be operated?

48 new MKIIs in 2-car Units were delivered

Decision made that as of 2014, 28 MKIIs from the Expo/Millennium fleet will be reallocated to the Evergreen/Millennium Line to provide continued service on the Lougheed Town Centre – VCC-Clark line segment

200912,000 pphpd

201016,000 pphpd

Exhibit 17: Decision Flowchart for Fleet Upgrades

* The capacity increase in 2014 is due to truncating the “Millennium” Line at Lougheed Town Centre, allowing increased Expo Line capacity with the same fleet size

The special AM peak hour short-turn Commercial-Broadway to Waterfront westbound service is maintained in the Base Case.

No short-turn service is assumed beyond 2014 in Alternative 1 and Alternative 2 Upgrades.

The line capacity of 16,000 pphpd in the Base Case does not take into account the vertical circulation constraint at Burrard Station.

NO YES

NO YES

ProjectSummary | 29

The flowchart was developed on the assumption that to make up a 5-car MKII train, new stand-

alone 3-car MKII units will be purchased and coupled with 2-car MKII units. While a design

already exists for a third car (“C-car”) that can be inserted into an existing 2-car MKII unit to make

up a 3-car MKII unit, consideration should be given to the benefits of adding a “new” element into

a train that may be as much as 15 years old.

Another important consideration with regards to fleet expansion is the availability of storage

capacity. A new storage yard must be planned, designed and constructed before operating

additional fleet. In the long term (by 2026), there is some storage capacity in the existing OMC

yard that can be provided for the additional MKII cars when the MKI fleet is retired; however,

additional storage yard space needs to be made available to store all vehicles on-site. Potential

sites for a new storage yard were identified in this study.

6.2 Subsystems UpgradesExhibit 18 summarizes the upgrade requirements to the Expo Line by each subsystem on top of

those already approved in TransLink’s current 10-year plan. The justification for these upgrades

can be found in Section 2.0 where current and future capacity constraints are identified.

6.3 Station UpgradesExhibit 19 summarizes the upgrade requirements to the Expo Line Stations. Where upgrades

will be affected by the introduction of fare gates (29th Avenue and Stadium-Chinatown Stations),

incorporation of design requirements associated with the operation of 5-car MKII trains as part of

the Smart Card and Fare Gate Program would mitigate future needs to reconstruct some of the

infrastructure.

For stations in general, it will be more effective to implement all the identified upgrades at a

particular station under one construction period rather than spread out over time to avoid causing

inconvenience or disruptions to passenger flow on a recurring basis and increase efficiency.

Consideration should also be given to avoid waiting until the last possible moment to implement

upgrades as mitigation during construction may be more challenging due to increased passenger

volumes.

In summary, station upgrades may be prioritized as follows:

a. Address station emergency egress upgrades. Considerations should include upgrading

egress capacity to support the operation of an all 5-car MKII fleet (ultimate requirement) to

avoid needing to upgrade egress capacity again in the future.

b. Implement platform extension in the short term, as part of the Smart Card and Fare Gate

Program, at the Stadium-Chinatown and 29th Avenue Stations (only required for Upgrade

Alternative 2).

30 | TranslinkExpoLineUpgradeStrategy

c. The planning of major upgrades for selected stations should be tied with fare gate

requirements. Where the implementation of fare gates triggers other station renovations,

such renovations should be accounted for as part the major upgrades.

d. Provide a new east entrance at the Burrard Station where vertical circulation constraints

are currently experienced and there is inadequate space for fare gates to meet long-term

demand.

e. While guidelines on the provision of up- and down-escalators are still pending, should such

provisions be implemented at stations they may be combined with other improvements to

minimize construction impacts associated with station renovations.

Exhibit 18: Upgrade Requirements by Subsystem

Subsystem Upgrade Description Size (spatial extent)

Included in Alternative 1?

Included in Alternative 2?

Propulsion Power System

Add a second transformer-rectifier unit to existing substation, replace power rail and provide new traction power substations

7 power substations Yes Yes

Operations and Maintenance Centre

Construct new vehicle storage facility 0.8 to 1.6 ha Yes Yes

Automatic Train Control

Provide compatibility to 5-car MKII train 20 stations No Yes

ProjectSummary | 31

Exhibit 19: Upgrade Requirements for Expo Line Stations

Upgrade Description Station(s) Included in Alternative 1?

Included in Alternative 2?

Renovation of existing stairs to add a new escalator

Nanaimo22nd StreetColumbiaRoyal Oak

Yes Yes

Renovation of existing stairs to add a new escalator

Nanaimo22nd StreetColumbiaRoyal Oak

Yes Yes

Relocation of service walkway gates and edge tapers at platform ends

WaterfrontBurrardGranvilleNanaimoPattersonRoyal OakEdmonds22nd StreetNew WestminsterColumbiaScott RoadGateway Surrey CentralKing George

No Yes

New entrance Burrard Yes Yes

Modelling and field-testing of existing mechanical ventilation capacity

Burrard No Yes

Extension of platform and reconstruction of entry building and circulation facilities

Stadium-Chinatown Yes Yes

Major station upgrades

Main Street-Science World Yes Yes

Commercial-Broadway (Phase 2) Yes Yes

Metrotown Yes Yes

Edmonds Yes Yes

Extension of station platform Commercial-Broadway No Yes

Provision of additional emergency exit stairs

NanaimoJoyce-CollingwoodPattersonRoyal Oak22nd StreetNew WestminsterScott RoadGatewayMain Street-Science World

No Yes

Extension of platform and reconstruction of existing footbridge and circulation facilities

29th Avenue Yes Yes

Extension of platform and provision of new entry building with new escalator and elevator

Joyce-Collingwood Yes Yes

32 | TranslinkExpoLineUpgradeStrategy

6.4 Capital and Operational CostsThe costs of the base case and the two upgrade alternatives were estimated based on the

following capital and operation cost assumptions:

� Capital Expenditures (in 2010 constant $)

- Vehicle acquisition costs are spread out over a 3-year interval

- Station costs are based on order of magnitude lump sums

- Subsystem costs are based on lump sum or unit costs

� Operating Expenditures (in 2010 constant $)

- A base operating cost plus a variable vehicle operating cost based on the number of cars

- The base operating cost is $34 million per year

- The average vehicle operating cost is $195,000 per year (for both MKI and MKII vehicles)

Exhibit 20 summarises the total capital and operating costs for the two upgrade alternatives and

the incremental costs against the base case.

Exhibit 20: Capital and Operation Cost by Alternative

Capital Cost (2010 $) Operating Cost – Over the Next 30 Years (2010 $)

Total Incremental to Base Total Incremental to

Base

Base Case 309 M - 3,027 M -

Alternative 1 841 M 532 M 3,478 M 451 M

Alternative 2 1,092 M 783 M 3,739 M 712 M

Exhibit 21 and 22 present the profile of upgrade incremental capital expenditures for Alternatives

1 and 2, respectively.

ProjectSummary | 33

Exhibit 21: Committed Incremental Capital Expenses Profile for Upgrade Alternative 1 (in 2010 Constant $)

Exhibit 22: Committed Incremental Capital Expenses Profile for Upgrade Alternative 2 (in 2010 Constant $)

Committed Incremental Capital Expenses Profile for Upgrade Alternative 1 (in 2010 Constant $)

-

25

50

75

100

125

150

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Year

Expe

nses (in 20

10 Con

stant $ Millions)

Subsystems  and Yard Storage (in 2010 Constant $) Stations  (in 2010 Constant $)

Vehicles  (in 2010 Constant $) Average Yearly Cost (in 2010 Constant $)

$59.6M (average annual cost over 8 years in 2010 Constant $)

Committed Incremental Capital Expenses Profile for Upgrade Alternative 2 (in 2010 Constant $)

-

25

50

75

100

125

150

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Year

Expe

nses (in 20

10 Con

stant $ Millions)

Subsystems and Yard Storage (in 2010 Constant $) Stations  (in 2010 Constant $)

Vehicles  (in 2010 Constant $) Average Yearly Cost (in 2010 Constant $)

$39.2M (average annual cost over 20 years in 2010 Constant $)

34 | TranslinkExpoLineUpgradeStrategy

The following elements were not included in the cost estimates:

� Upgrades to Millennium Line stations for handling 5-car MKII trains, should longer trains operate on the Evergreen Line (the future Expo-Millennium Line will run between Waterfront and Lougheed Town Centre Stations)

� Potential upgrade and/or addition of park-and-ride facilities

� Upgrades to bus loops adjacent to SkyTrain Stations and upgrades to bus service frequency and/or vehicle assignment

� Potential upgrades for compliance with new Passenger Facility Guidelines being prepared by TransLink

� Additional maintenance facilities to accommodate additional fleet

� Additional costs incurred by having the identified station upgrades implemented outside of the Smart Card and Fare Gate Program

� Lifecycle replacement of existing infrastructure and fleet

� Additional fleet required for the operation of the Evergreen Line

� Other initiatives which would enhance passenger safety, security and comfort, as well as station community integration

ProjectSummary | 35

Based on the need to meet the long term

demand which is predicted to reach between

23,000 and 26,000 pphpd at the peak point,

and based on the Provincial Transit Plan’s

stated goal of doubling the 2007 Expo Line

capacity by 2020, it is recommended that

the Expo Line be upgraded to an all 5-car

MKII fleet to provide the full capacity of

the system and to serve the travel demand

projected in this study. A Business Case that

analyzes the costs and benefits associated

with each alternative is being prepared under

separate cover, and will be used to support this

recommendation.

This study has identified the required upgrades

over the next 30 years (timing and associated

costs) to support the doubling of line capacity.

The planning and timing of improvements

should be implemented in a logical sequence

to ensure system-wide performance is

maintained while minimizing service delays,

disruptions and passenger inconvenience.

It is important that subsystem upgrades, such

as Propulsion Power System and storage

yard expansion, be implemented prior to the

operation of an expanded fleet.

The implementation of the needed upgrades

will be linked to fleet expansion as demand

warrants. Exhibit 23 shows the recommended

upgrade plan, based on the high growth

ridership forecast shown in Exhibit 12.

7.0 │ Recommendation & Implementation

Strategy

Since actual ridership will vary from the forecast,

it is recommended that passenger counts be

conducted every 3 to 5 years to adjust the

implementation of the upgrades.

To support an all 5-car MKII fleet, the

following capacity and accessibility-related

improvements will be required:

� Purchase of 40 new MKII cars in 2-car units followed by the purchase 180 new MKII cars in 3-car units to replace the MKI fleet and to expand capacity1

� Implementation of Stage 2 and 3 upgrades to the Propulsion Power System

� Construction of a new vehicle storage facility to accommodate 21 sets of 5-car MKII trains

� Adjustments of ATC loop layouts at all stations

� Construction of a new entrance, as well as modelling and field-testing of existing mechanical ventilation capacity at Burrard Station

� Implementation of accessibility improvements at the Nanaimo outbound, 29th Avenue inbound/outbound, Royal Oak inbound/outbound, Edmonds inbound/outbound, 22nd Street outbound and Columbia outbound platforms (renovating the existing stairs to add a new escalator)

� Completion of the planned station upgrades at Main Street-Science World, Commercial-Broadway (Phase 2) and Metrotown Stations

1 Note: MKI replacement is not an upgrade cost

36 | TranslinkExpoLineUpgradeStrategy

� Upgrades to improve neighbourhood integration at Edmonds Station

� Extension of the platform and reconstruction of the entry building and vertical circulation facilities at Stadium-Chinatown Station (accessibility upgrade) and Joyce-Collingwood Station (to support B-Line integration)

� Relocation of service walkway gates and edge tapers at the platform ends of Waterfront, Burrard, Granville, Nanaimo, Patterson, Royal Oak, Edmonds, 22nd Street, New Westminster, Columbia, Scott Road, Gateway, Surrey Central and King George Stations

� Provision of an additional emergency exit stair at Main Street-Science World, Nanaimo, Joyce-Collingwood, Patterson, Royal Oak, 22nd Street, New Westminster, Scott Road and Gateway Stations (an independent review should be conducted to verify the actual exit stair width requirements at each station)

� Lengthening of existing platforms 3 and 4 at Commercial-Broadway Station

� Extension of platform and reconstruction of the existing footbridge and circulation facilities at 29th Avenue Station

A more rigorous structural inspection of

all structures should be conducted before

operating 5-car MKII trains.

The strategy identified is based on the

understanding that the installation of fare gates

at all Expo Line Stations will be implemented

by 2013. Some of the upgrade projects are

considered beneficial in terms of capital cost

savings if they are implemented at the same

time as the fare gate project although they are

not required by 2013. Also, the Smart Card and

Fare Gate Project should take into consideration

the design required to accommodate the

anticipated changes associated with the

following upgrade projects:

� Major upgrade of the east entrance at Main Street-Science World Station

� Extension of platform and reconstruction of the east entry at Stadium-Chinatown Station

� Extension of platform and re-construction of the footbridge at the east entry of 29th Avenue Station

� Reconstruction of the east entry at Joyce-Collingwood Station

� Commercial-Broadway Station Phase 2 Upgrade

� New east entrance at Burrard Station

Exhibit 23: Upgrade Path for Alternative 2

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

Tota

l Inc

rem

enta

l C

ost (

in 2

010

Con

stan

t $m

)

Tota

l In

crem

enta

l C

ost (

in M

OD

$m

)

Tota

l Inc

rem

enta

l co

st (i

n 20

10

Pre

sent

Val

ue*

$m)

Burrard (new entrance) 10.3 11.0 8.5

Commercial-Broadway (Phase 2 upgrade, platform extension over 10th Ave. entry) 80.4 85.9 66.1

Nanaimo, Royal Oak, 22nd Street, Columbia (new escalators) 4.0 4.3 3.3

Main Street-Science World (major upgrade and additional emergency stairs) 28.9 30.9 23.8

Purchase 28 additional MKII vehicles 85.9 89.6 66.5

14 vehicle on-board computers (same time as new vehicles are introduced) 6.2 6.5 4.8

Stadium-Chinatown (platform extension, reconstruction of stairs and entry building at east end) 4.1 4.4 3.3

29th Avenue (new escalator, platform extension, reconstruct footbridge and stairs) 6.2 6.7 5.0

Joyce-Collingwood (platform extension, new east entry building and full vertical circulation at east end) 6.2 6.7 5.0

Metrotown (major upgrade, include new west entrance) 41.2 45.6 31.9

Propulsion Power System Stage 2 upgrade 14.8 16.2 11.6

Joyce-Collingwood (additional emergency stairs) 3.1 3.7 2.1

Purchase 50 additional MKII vehicles 153.3 176.3 82.1

43 vehicle on-board computers (same time as new vehicles are introduced) 19.1 21.9 10.2

Adjust ATC loops, adding new VCC and SMC software releases 2.1 2.6 1.2

Inspection of all structures to ensure appropriate conditions for the operation of 5-car MKII trains

Burrard (field test mechanical ventilation capacity, relocate service walkway gates and edge tapers) 0.4 0.5 0.2

Nanaimo, Patterson, Royal Oak, 22nd Street, New Westminster, Scott Road, Gateway (additional emergency stairs) 21.7 27.2 12.7

Nanaimo, Patterson, Royal Oak, 22nd Street, New Westminster, Scott Road, Gateway (relocate service walkway gates and edge tapers) 1.4 1.8 0.8

Edmonds (major upgrade, include new escalator) 19.6 24.6 11.5

Waterfront, Granville, Edmonds, Columbia, Surrey Central, King George (relocate service walkway gates and edge tapers) 1.2 1.5 0.7

New satellite storage yard 41.4 52.7 23.4

Propulsion Power System Stage 3 upgrade 68.5 87.2 38.8

Review the need to extend the inbound track at VCC-Clark (as part of the Millennium Line upgrade, and pending future operating plan)

Review bus loop capacity and bus service co-ordination with SkyTrain services

Review capacity of park and ride lots and potential sites for new park and ride lots

Purchase 21 additional MKII vehicles 64.4 85.0 20.4

18 vehicle on-board computers (same time as new vehicles are introduced) 8.0 10.5 2.5

Purchase 27 additional MKII vehicles 82.8 120.6 18.0

18 vehicle on-board computers (same time as new vehicles are introduced) 8.0 11.6 1.7

Year-by-Year Capital Cost (in 2010 Constant $m) 0.0 61.3 145.0 81.9 0.8 1.6 67.7 133.4 128.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.1 24.1 24.1 0.0 0.0 30.3 30.3 30.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 783.1

Year-by-Year Capital Cost (in MOD $m) 0.0 62.9 155.7 89.1 0.9 1.8 77.4 161.5 158.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 31.2 31.8 32.5 0.0 0.0 43.2 44.1 45.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 935.4

Year-by-Year Capital Cost (in 2010 Present Value* $m) 0.0 52.0 117.0 60.9 0.6 1.0 39.7 75.3 67.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.2 7.6 7.1 0.0 0.0 7.1 6.6 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 456.2

Operating Fleet:150 MKIs + 108 MKIIs

Operating Fleet:36 MKIs + 228 MKIIs

Operating Fleet:273 MKIIs

Operating Fleet:300 MKIIs

ProjectSummary | 37

ProjectSummary | 38

7.1 Stakeholders Actions and Project Monitoring7.1.1 Stakeholder Requirements

The involvement of stakeholders is important for moving forward with the Expo Line Upgrades.

While TransLink has a leading role in the upgrade strategy, other stakeholders include senior

government, municipalities, British Columbia Rapid Transit Company, the public and owners of

properties adjacent to Expo Line Stations.

The stakeholders’ follow-up actions to this strategy are shown in Exhibit 24.

Exhibit 24: Stakeholder Follow-up Actions

Stakeholders Follow-up Actions Required Result if Action Not Completed

TransLink

-Lead the Expo Line Upgrade Project through securing funding, procurement, implementation and liaison with stakeholders -Provide capital funding (with partial funding from senior governments) -Plan and operate coordinated bus services and bus/Expo Line Station interface to support the Expo Line upgrade (with funding for the “RapidBus BC lines” from senior government) - Inform the public on the upgrade status -Monitor ridership every 3 to 5 years to adjust timing of upgrades as required based on demand profiles

-Lack of funding will delay the upgrade and the system will continue to experience overcrowding and risk of passengers choosing the automobile as their preferred travel mode -Lack of planning and expansion of the regional bus services will limit Expo Line passengers from accessing the expanded SkyTrain service -Lack of proactive communication with affected developments and the public could affect project progress and TransLink’s reputation

Senior Government

-Review funding requests by TransLink -Provide funding -Participate as desired

-Lack of funding will delay the upgrade and the system will continue to experience overcrowding and risk of passengers choosing the automobile as their preferred travel mode, resulting in emissions reduction targets not being met

Municipalities

-Support of permitting, utilities and potentially zoning requirements -Support transit-oriented developments adjacent to Expo Line stations

-Lack of cooperation could create delay or result in inconsistent upgrades between municipalities

British Columbia Rapid Transit Company

-Continued involvement in the development of the alternative upgrade options to ensure they can operate system efficiently during upgrade

-BCRTC support crucial for upgrade development and implementation

Adjacent Property Owners to Expanded Stations

-Discussions with TransLink on implications of station upgrades

-Lack of cooperation may require use of expropriation

Public

-TransLink to keep public informed on upgrade plans and approximate timeframes -TransLink to provide specific periods when upgrade works might create service interruptions

-Lack of public cooperation could result in delays and affect TransLink’s reputation

39 | TranslinkExpoLineUpgradeStrategy

7.1.2 Project Monitoring

Two perspectives may be adopted to measure the outcomes of the Expo Line upgrades:

� Interim Assessment

� Retrospective Assessment

The approach using each form of assessment is summarized in Exhibit 25.

Exhibit 25: Approach to Measuring Project Outcomes

Assessment Approach

Interim

-Ridership uncertainty increases over the long term -Monitoring ridership is recommended every 3 to 5 years to adjust timing of upgrades as required -Ridership counts carried out on vehicles for the assessment of link capacity and station access constraints

Retrospective -Pass-up demand is a direct indicator of capacity constraints and bottlenecks -Regular surveys will enable authorities to determine the effect of the capacity improvements

It is suggested that TransLink take a proactive approach to monitor the project outcomes by

conducting interim assessments. In this strategy, it is vital to monitor actual ridership to ensure

that actions can be taken at the appropriate times to address capacity needs and other issues

and to verify the success of the implemented improvements over time.