exploring the next wave of 10gbe with crehan research
DESCRIPTION
The Next Wave of 10GbE webcast with Crehan Research was held on 10/5 and focused on current and future 10GbE adapter and switch market drivers and adoption trends, and the effects of the introduction of 10GBASE-T products on the overall 10GbE market.TRANSCRIPT
1
Explore the Next Wave of 10GbE
2
Webcast House Keeping
1. All attendees will be on mute during the presentation
2. Please submit your questions via the text/chat feature
3. We will do all Q&A at the end of the presentation
3
Agenda
Emulex - Next Steps in Networking
Crehan Research - 10 Gigabit Ethernet (10GbE) Market Update
Emulex – The Maturing Converged Market Place
Q&A with Seamus Crehan
44
Shaun WalshVP Marketing, Emulex
Next Steps in Networking
5
Next Steps in Network Convergence
Storage
Universe
• 7ZB by 2013
• Big Data (Hadoop)
• SSDs drive performance
o
Virtual
Networking
• Universal Multi-Channel
• SR-IOV, VXLAN, GRE
• Virtual Networking
Cloud
Connectivity
• Cloud LOM Technology
• I/O Isolation
• Connect I/O Engine
Multi-Fabric
• RoCEE Low Latency
• Unified Multi-Fabric I/O
• 10GBASE-T, 16GFC
6
CompetitiveAdvantage
Lower CostGb and IOPS
Virtual MachineDensity
Drivers of 10GbE and Network Convergence
Increased Use of Virtual Resources for Real Work Loads!
7
Waves of 10GbE Adoption
10Gb LOM and Adapters for Blade Servers50% of IT Managers Cite Virtualization as the Driver of 10GbE in Blades
10G
bE A
dopt
ion
Wav
es
2010 2011 2013 Beyond2012
1-2 Socket Serverwith NICs and Modular LOMs
Cloud Container Servers for Web Giants and Telcos
FCoE Storage 25% of I/O10GbE LOM Everywhere
Sources:
Crehan Research Server-class Adapter and LOM Report
ESG Deployment Paper 2010
IDC WW External Storage Report 2010
IT Brand Pulse 10GbE Survey April 2010
10Gb NAS and iSCSI Drive IP SAN Storage for Unstructured Data
2-4 Socket X86 and Unix Rack Servers Drive 10Gb with Modular LOMs and UCNAs
Wav
e 1
Wav
e 2
Wav
e 3
Seamus Crehan
Founder, Crehan Research, Inc
Email: [email protected]
Phone: (650) 273-8400
10GbE Market Update
CREHAN RESEARCH Inc. restricted -- do not redistribute without permission
10GbE Server Adapter & LOM Port Shipments
• Ports growing ~ 20% Q/Q
• 1H11 port shipments of ~2.3 M
– Close to doubling Y/Y
• Very strong traction without:
– Romley/Sandy Bridge upgrade
– 10GBASE-T
– Strong macro economy
1Q092Q09
3Q094Q09
1Q102Q10
3Q104Q10
1Q112Q11
0.0
0.7
1.3Over 1 Million Ports per Quarter
©2011 CREHAN RESEARCH Inc.
10GbE Server Adapter/LOM Shipments
Po
rts
in M
illi
on
s
CREHAN RESEARCH Inc. restricted -- do not redistribute without permission
Current Market Adoption & Drivers
• Blade servers
– Virtualization
– Storage network attach
• Cloud & large production data centers
• Massive expansion of connected devices
• High-density server access switches
– Market close to doubling Y/Y
10CREHAN RESEARCH Inc. restricted -- do not redistribute without permission
Future Market Drivers
• Continuation of current
market drivers
• Romley/Sandy Bridge
• Convergence
– Storage – FCoE, iSCSI
– HPC – Low latency
• “Big Data”
• 10GBASE-T
11
2008A2009A
2010A2011E
2012E2013E
2014E2015E
0
21
42
1Gbe
10Gbe
©2011 CREHAN RESEARCH Inc.
Server Adapter/LOM Shipments
CREHAN RESEARCH Inc. restricted -- do not redistribute without permission
Po
rts
in M
illi
on
s
12
10GBASE-T Adapter/LOM Adoption
• Ramp starting in 2012– FlexLOM/daughter card– Native LOM– Stand-up cards – Numerous
high-density/high-volume server access switches
• Large installed base of Cat 6/6a data center cabling
CREHAN RESEARCH Inc. restricted -- do not redistribute without permission
0
12
24
KR (Internal Blade)
Other (CX-4, XPAK, etc.)
10G BASE-T
SFP+
©2011 CREHAN RESEARCH Inc.
Po
rts
in M
illi
on
s
10GbE Port Interface Shipments
13
10GbE Adapter/LOM Pricing Trends
• Steep ASP declines– Multiport solutions– Increased copper mix – Mezzanine card and LOM
mix
• Significant 10GbE bandwidth discount on all major form-factors
• Cable and slot savings
CREHAN RESEARCH Inc. restricted -- do not redistribute without permission
Standup card Mezzanine card LOM $0
$25
$50
1Gbe 10Gbe
©2011 CREHAN RESEARCH Inc.
$ A
SP
per
Gig
abit
of
Ban
dw
idth
Server Adapter/LOM Bandwidth Pricing
Server Access Switches
• Ports growing ~ 20% Q/Q
• Quarterly run-rate >1M
ports
• Recent traction stronger in
Fixed/T-o-R
– High density 10GBASE-T
switches from numerous
vendors
– ASP per port halved since
200814
CREHAN RESEARCH Inc. restricted -- do not redistribute without permission
2008A2009A
2010A2011E
2012E2013E
2014E2015E
0
12
24
$0
$270
$540Blade
$ASP per Port Line (outer axis)
©2011 CREHAN RESEARCH Inc.
Po
rt S
hip
men
ts i
n M
illi
on
s (B
ars
)
Server Adapter/LOM Bandwidth Pricing
10GBASE-T Data Center Switch Adoption
• High-density fixed/top-of-rack
switches
• High-density chassis/modular
end-of-row line cards
• 10GBASE-T close to half of data
center switch ports by end of
2015
• More on-board LOM and pre-
installed cabling reduces
customers variable cost of
10GBASE-T adoption
15CREHAN RESEARCH Inc. restricted -- do not redistribute without permission
2009A2010A
2011E2012E
2013E2014E
2015E
-25%
0%
25%
50%
10GBASE-T Switch Port %
©2011 CREHAN RESEARCH Inc.
% o
f To
tal
Dat
ace
nte
r S
wit
ch P
ort
Mix
10GBASE-T Data Center Switch Ports
BASE-T Factors for Speed Upgrade
• Power
• Cabling installed base
• LOM for rack servers
• Server-access switches
• Bandwidth discount
16CREHAN RESEARCH Inc. restricted -- do not redistribute without permission
10GbE Pricing TrendsSwitch + Server Connection
• Significant bandwidth discount for 10GbE connection versus 1GbE connection
• Bandwidth discount continues to increase– ~40% in 2008– ~60% in 2011– ~70% in 2012
• Network hardware only – also incremental cable savings
17CREHAN RESEARCH Inc. restricted -- do not redistribute without permission
2008A2009A
2010A2011E
2012E2013E
2014E2015E
$0
$450
$900
1GbE
10GbE
©2011 CREHAN RESEARCH Inc.
$ A
SP
per
Po
rt (
Sw
itch
+ S
erve
r)
Switch + Server Pricing Trends
Summary
• 10GbE server-class adapter & LOM shipments have reached significant volumes already.
• Traffic/device growth, virtualization, convergence, cloud and bandwidth cost savings have been, and will remain key drivers.
• Impending key drivers such as Romley/Sandy Bridge,10GBASE-T, more attractive pricing and emerging applications will propel next adoption stage.
• Expect 10GBASE-T to become majority of server-class adapter/LOM and data center switch connections.
18CREHAN RESEARCH Inc. restricted -- do not redistribute without permission
19
The Maturing Converged Market Place
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Evolution of 10GbE Network Convergence
10GbE LOM10GbE CNAsHW iSCSI/FCoE x86 and UnixBlade and Rack
HP iSCSI/FCoENetApp iSCSI/FCoEEMC iSCSI/FCoEDELL iSCSI/DCBIBM iSCSI/FCoE
Blade SwitchesBlade PTMsTOR SwitchesCore Directors
HP FlexFabricIBM Virtual FabricCisco UCSDell NPAR
VMware vNICsVirtual SwitchESX HW iSCSIESX FCoEVM vCenter
Converged Fabric-based Computing
Converged Adapters &
LOMs
Convergence for Server
Virtualization
Converged Switching
Converged Storage
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Wrap Up
10GBASE-T is Like Hanging Out with an Old Friend
Many Phase to Market Transitions and Implementation
Network Convergence is Coming; Best to be Ready
Management of Domains Will be the Most Challenging
10GBASE-T will drive 10GbE Cost in Racks