exploring nj climate variability and change · more action, more variability, and more change in...
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Presentation to the Pinelands Commission
Dr. David A. RobinsonProfessor, Department of Geography & New Jersey State Climatologist
Rutgers University
November 18, 2015
Exploring NJ Climate Variability and Change
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NJclimate.org
Office of the NJ State
Climatologist
Data
Information
Knowledge
Decision
NJclimate.org
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NJclimate.org
Overview
1. Pinelands weather and climate2. Climate change, past, present…..future?3. Impacts and potential actions
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NJclimate.org
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NJclimate.org
Climate or Weather???
Weather refers to the short-term phenomena
Climate refers to the long-term patterns
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NJclimate.org
Better yet!
Climate is your personality…..
Weather is your mood……
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NJclimate.org
The big picture: a NJ squeeze play
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NJclimate.org
Diversity: Local Controls
AltitudeLatitudeSurface ConditionsLand-Water Contrasts
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NJclimate.org
A precipitation rich state……
……most often
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NJclimate.org
Sometimestoo much……
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NJclimate.org
Irene rainfall
Andsometimes far too much
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NJclimate.org
Burlington Countydeluge12 July 2004
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NJclimate.org
Sometimes too little....
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NJclimate.org
A season for everyone
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NJclimate.org
29 January 20155:55 AM
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NJclimate.org
7 July 20104:00 PM
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NJclimate.org
22 July 20113:00 PM
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NJclimate.org
Overview
1. Pinelands weather and climate2. Climate change, past, present…..future?3. Impacts and potential actions
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NJclimate.org
Is climate presently changingin NJ & elsewhere?
Preponderance of evidence suggests climate change is occurring and humans are responsible for a significant portion of recent changes
1. Theory2. Observations3. Models
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NJclimate.org
Climate regimes have
changed dramatically
on many time scales in the
past
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NJclimate.org
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NJclimate.org
NASA GISS
Global land-ocean temperatures: 1880-2014
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NJclimate.org
Trends in annual mean south Jersey temperature: 1895-2014
data source: National Climatic Data Center
Long-term upward trend of approx. 3°F per 100 years
More rapid warming since 1980
The three warmest years have occurred since 1998
2012 was the warmest year on record
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NJclimate.org
1961 2015
Indian Mills: Winter Extreme Minimum Temperature: 1961-2015
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NJclimate.org
Trends in annual mean south Jersey precipitation: 1895-2014
data source: National Centers for Environmental Information
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NJclimate.org
Bound Brook
September 17, 1999
April 16, 2007
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NJclimate.org
Hopewell, Mercer County August 20, 2010
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NJclimate.org
Sea level rise: global and regional: 1880-present
1.7 mm/y NJ
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Coupled Climate Model Schematic
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NJclimate.org
Meehl, G.A., et al., 2004
Natural and anthropogenic forcingsand 20th century temperatures
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NJclimate.org
Rising temperatures
Steady or increasing precipitation
Increasing variability and extremes- storms, flood, drought, heat…….
Rising sea level
Pineland's future climate
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NJclimate.org
Changing Annual and Seasonal Temperatures
2041-2070 minus 1971-2000
North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program
Kunkel et al. NOAA Tech. Report NESDIS 142-9, 2013
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NJclimate.org
Changing Annual and Seasonal Precipitation
2041-2070 minus 1971-2000
Kunkel et al. NOAA Tech. Report NESDIS 142-9, 2013
North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program
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NJclimate.org
A change in extremes?
17 September 1999
16 April 2007
14 March 2010
28 August 2011
Manville
# 2 crest 21.0’ (nearby Blackwells Mills: 1921-present)
# 3 crest 19.2’
# 6 crest 16.2’ (1 May 2014 #7 crest 15.9’)
# 1 crest 21.2’
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NJclimate.org
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NJclimate.org
Seaside Heights
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NJclimate.org
Overview
1. Pinelands weather and climate2. Climate change, past, present…..future?3. Impacts and potential actions
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NJclimate.org
Potential climate change impacts
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NJclimate.org
Is there something we should be doing about this climate dilemma?
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NJclimate.org
• Knowledge: Develop a better understanding of the details of future climate change.
• Mitigation: Reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.
• Adaptation: Increase the resilience of society to climate change.
• Leadership: Raise public awareness of the challenges posed by climate change and the need to mitigate and adapt.
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NJclimate.org
New Jersey Weather & Climate Network
http://njweather.org
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NJclimate.org
NJWxNet stations measure:Air temperatureWind speed and directionDew point/Relative HumidityPrecipitationBarometric pressureSolar radiationSoil temperatureSoil water content
Solar power
Cellular communications
Ability for expansion built into station design
Oswego Lake: Rutgers Marucci Blueberry and Cranberry Research and Extension Center
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NJclimate.org
18 November 20157:12 AM
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NJclimate.org
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NJclimate.org
Custom tabular data fordecisionmakers
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NJclimate.org
Augmenting automatedweather observations
Daily observations by
trained volunteers of all ages
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NJclimate.org
Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network:
www.cocorahs.org7AM 20 Aug – 7AM 21 Aug 2015
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NJclimate.org
Summing up:
Be it weather moodiness or long-term climate personality changes, a dull moment is rare to find in the Pinelands, throughout southern NJ and beyond.
There is abundant evidence that the atmosphere, oceans and continents are primed to produce even more action, more variability, and more change in the decades ahead on local to global scales.
Continued vigilance is required to monitor, understand and predict the future behavior of the climate system.